Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)

[Jerome in the House]

Ketch, I’m with you 100% on this one. I was ripped on here when I expressed that I was less than thrilled at some of the recent takes.

If I’m understanding you correctly, this whole national top 70 thing is only an aggregate number, taking into account all positions. However, positions like DE or QB could extend further?

 

[Ketchum]

A three star football player who did not get drafted married my college sweetheart and I am stilled pissed. He thinks he is a macho guy because he played football at UT. Wasn't all conference, didn't play much. Did I mentioned I am still pissed? And they ended up getting a divorce. Did I mention I am stilled pissed?

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch, I’m with you 100% on this one. I was ripped on here when I expressed that I was less than thrilled at some of the recent takes.

If I’m understanding you correctly, this whole national top 70 thing is only an aggregate number, taking into account all positions. However, positions like DE or QB could extend further?

absolutely. I hope by the end of the summer to be able to release an easy to follow guide to the blind spots and exceptions.

Like low four-star big DE prospects from the state of Texas excelling like five-stars.

 

[Mike.Tip]

I don't think people really have an understanding for what happens next with the Portal after the first full year of NIL.

I believed that this year would have a lot more talent than last year, and I was proven correct.

I think it takes off to an even higher level in 2023 and Texas simply needs to make sure it has ample room to take advantage of it.

They just need to really evaluate what they might be getting. The Hall kid’s baggage is worrisome to me for a program trying to set the winning identity. Portal periods have been such a frenzy you pretty much have to have a basic evaluation on players even before they enter the portal. The questions that worry me about portal players are mostly about character and work ethic. Film can tell you about play. It might not be easy to get that character back story verified with the pace of portal moves.
I can see an opportunity for a player evaluation service that can be marketed to college programs for portal and to Pro scouts/teams as draft evaluation tool (mostly for undrafted free agent opportunities). My dream job if I had the time to transition without bankrupting myself. I absolutely love evaluating players.

 

[FtBendHorn]

@Ketchum I get the crusade. You analysis makes a lot of sense and stars are have very strong correlation to success. That said, I think who else had commit-able offers on the table is probably a very good indicator. Sydir Mitchell had an offer from the Georgia the defending national champions. It would be interesting to see how the program quality of the offer list correlates to success.

 

[Ketchum]

They just need to really evaluate what they might be getting. The Hall kid’s baggage is worrisome to me for a program trying to set the winning identity. Portal periods have been such a frenzy you pretty much have to have a basic evaluation on players even before they enter the portal. The questions that worry me about portal players are mostly about character and work ethic. Film can tell you about play. It might not be easy to get that character back story verified with the pace of portal moves.
I can see an opportunity for a player evaluation service that can be marketed to college programs for portal and to Pro scouts/teams as draft evaluation tool (mostly for undrafted free agent opportunities). My dream job if I had the time to transition without bankrupting myself. I absolutely love evaluating players.

You bring up a good point. It's why part of your football program needs to be focusing on these evaluations and future potential transfers before they happen.

You can't allow yourself to get to know guys in a shotgun marriage as best as possible.

I feel you on Hall, but in this case, we're talking about a guy the staff has extensive experience and first-hand knowledge of.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum I get the crusade. You analysis makes a lot of sense and stars are have very strong correlation to success. That said, I think who else had commit-able offers on the table is probably a very good indicator. Sydir Mitchell had an offer from the Georgia the defending national champions. It would be interesting to see how the program quality of the offer list correlates to success.

I'd do some research on that, but if the data doesn't change much, people are going to yell at me if I reveal it.

 

[Never Nuff Horns]

With all of the great things to talk about wrt Texas football and Texas sports in general, the fact that you think re-spewing this data driven, boring as poop garbage says more about you than anything else.

 

[Ketchum]

With all of the great things to talk about wrt Texas football and Texas sports in general, the fact that you think re-spewing this data driven, boring as poop garbage says more about you than anything else.

And here you are on the 4th of July... taking personal shots?

 

[ryano013]

@Ketchum to some of these guys.

 

[Ketchum]

We've reached the stage of the conversation where I'm catching strays from 20-year subscribers in the name of questioning my character over the wider discussion of fine-tuning talent acquisition in major college football.

 

[Jerome in the House]

absolutely. I hope by the end of the summer to be able to release an easy to follow guide to the blind spots and exceptions.

Like low four-star big DE prospects from the state of Texas excelling like five-stars.

That would be interesting to see. I’m looking forward to reading that position by position breakdown, especially relative to TX.

I think another aspect to note as it pertains to the strategy of a more limited approach to HS recruiting is the potential benefit to the players themselves. It’s easy to look at a G5 or FCS player who gets drafted and wonder how UT missed out on them. However, that player’s success may have been dependent on his environment. How many 3* recruits had their potential wasted or snuffed out by going to a bigger program who didn’t have the time to be patient enough to incubate them and/or offer enough game reps to help that player reach their potential? There’s probably a ton of guys who could’ve developed into an NFL prospect at a smaller school that was going to give them a much larger window to develop before processing them out. They'll still have the portal in 2-3 years for those who want to cash in on NIL and/or improve their draft stock.

It looks like a win-win to me.

 

[Mike.Tip]

You bring up a good point. It's why part of your football program needs to be focusing on these evaluations and future potential transfers before they happen.

You can't allow yourself to get to know guys in a shotgun marriage as best as possible.

I feel you on Hall, but in this case, we're talking about a guy the staff has extensive experience and first-hand knowledge of.

I here you on Hall and trust the staff. I just worry about a kid Saban gives up on after his history of standing by some pretty unsavory behavior in his programs. Each situation is different. I could see a situation where Saban thought Hall needed to be taught a lesson on accountability. Saban is a lot of things but he seems to genuinely care for his players. Some only care as far as the player can help them.

 

[styrbjorn]

Yes, this is the moneyball approach to college football.

A high-level GM with pro experience (and dealing with agents) would be invaluable IMO.

Absolutely agree about needing a GM or equivalent.

I get the moneyball approach, with the caveat that we are not the Oakland A's. Wehave as much or more money than anyone. I'm OK with taking some 3-star guys with high ceilings, developing them up, and processing out the ones that don't make it to make room for transfers.

I guess my real point is that I want to give Sark latitude to bring in the guys he wants, and I also want to make these new commits feel like the fan base is invested in their success. I'm not sure that carping about historical success rates of Rivals 3* guys is really helping anything. Even if you are (probably) right.

 

[Ketchum]

I here you on Hall and trust the staff. I just worry about a kid Saban gives up on after his history of standing by some pretty unsavory behavior in his programs. Each situation is different. I could see a situation where Saban thought Hall needed to be taught a lesson on accountability. Saban is a lot of things but he seems to genuinely care for his players. Some only care as far as the player can help them.

I don't think I would have taken him.

 

[WhatAboutEggs]

I think an interesting predictor as it pertains to 3 stars is their offer lists. There’s a big difference between a 3 star with UH as their biggest offer and a 3 star who has Big boy offers as well.

 

[Ketchum]

Absolutely agree about needing a GM or equivalent.

I get the moneyball approach, with the caveat that we are not the Oakland A's. Wehave as much or more money than anyone. I'm OK with taking some 3-star guys with high ceilings, developing them up, and processing out the ones that don't make it to make room for transfers.

I guess my real point is that I want to give Sark latitude to bring in the guys he wants, and I also want to make these new commits feel like the fan base is invested in their success. I'm not sure that carping about historical success rates of Rivals 3* guys is really helping anything. Even if you are (probably) right.

a few thoughts...

a. What happened to the Red Sox once they started adopting moneyball principles?

b. This is about smart program building. Nothing more, nothing less.

c. You might not believe it's helping with anything,, but I would disagree. It's helping with expanding the knowledge footprint that everyone has on one of the most important aspects of the sport.

 

[Mike.Tip]

I don't think I would have taken him.

I’ll end with this one or I might as well just call you…

I am not sure if I’d have or not. I wish I knew more (which takes me back to the evaluation passion. I’d want to spend time with the layer and people that really know him)

 

[donjuanovan]

Not really. I literally went through every position and mentioned all players of note, drafted or not.

You kind of revealed yourself to have not read the sections fully.

We can't pretend that there's more than a couple true exceptions to the rule. There's one Poona Ford.

Ketch,

WRONG!!! I read your entire diatribe very carefully. While you did make casual recognition of some non-drafted palyers, you overall tone was still somewhat deprecating about them because they never got drafted, even if some made it the NFL via free agency. Also, why did you only provide the opening sentence of my reply above? Could it be that you did not want restate my primary point because you did not want to actually take the time to address my point to see if it had validity???

Well, it does, as I just took the time to at least do the Offensive players list you provided, and here are my quick findings where all I looked for was if they were significant starters (more than 2-3 games as injury fill in) in at least one season on the 40 acres, and the results prove my point - there are LOTS of valuable contributors to the program/team as starters who never sniff the NFL, that does not mean they were not worth recruiting or that they did not provide starting quality performance for UT for at least a season, if not more. Several of these 3 Stars actually received all conference honors as well and still never sniffed the NFL. Those UNDERLINED below were such starters for UT from your 3 Star lists below (and I provide the corresponding % of such success to contrast your "NFL drafted only" criteria % for those with completed eligibility):

Quarterbacks

2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright

NFL Draft rate: 20%

At least 1 season starter rate: 60%



Running backs

2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson (at fullback), 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 36%



Wide Receivers

2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 25%



Tight ends

2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.

NFL Draft rate: 7.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 30.7%

Offensive Linemen

2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson

NFL Draft rate: 3.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 51.8%



No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...

OF THE 81 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY FIVE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!

YET, 29 BECAME SIGNIFICANT STARTERS IN AT LEAST ONE SEASON!!!!! A 35.8% HIT RATE FOR 3 STAR RECRUITS!!!!

So, while looking forward it may be important for our coaches to be more particular with their 3 Star offers given the option of the portal and NIL which did not exist historically for these past players, history shows there is a MUCH higher probability that such 3 Star players actually DO contribute positively to the program then Ketch's "NFL Draftee or bust" criteria indicates. So, while we all desire the 5 Stars and high 4 Stars, it is a mistake to assume that only 10-20% of 3 Starts will "hit" , as my analysis shows they "hit" more at a 35% rate as far as at least being starting level contributors to the program for at least one season.

 

[Ketchum]

I’ll end with this one or I might as well just call you…

I am not sure if I’d have or not. I wish I knew more (which takes me back to the evaluation passion. I’d want to spend time with the layer and people that really know him)

completely fair.

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch,

WRONG!!! I read your entire diatribe very carefully. While you did make casual recognition of some non-drafted palyers, you overall tone was still somewhat deprecating about them because they never got drafted, even if some made it the NFL via free agency. Also, why did you only provide the opening sentence of my reply above? Could it be that you did not want restate my primary point because you did not want to actually take the time to address my point to see if it had validity???

Well, it does, as I just took the time to at least do the Offensive players list you provided, and here are my quick findings where all I looked for was if they were significant starters (more than 2-3 games as injury fill in) in at least one season on the 40 acres, and the results prove my point - there are LOTS of valuable contributors to the program/team as starters who never sniff the NFL, that does not mean they were not worth recruiting or that they did not provide starting quality performance for UT for at least a season, if not more. Several of these 3 Stars actually received all conference honors as well and still never sniffed the NFL. Those UNDERLINED below were such starters for UT from your 3 Star lists below (and I provide the corresponding % of such success to contrast your "NFL drafted only" criteria % for those with completed eligibility):

Quarterbacks

2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright

NFL Draft rate: 20%

At least 1 season starter rate: 60%



Running backs

2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson (at fullback), 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 36%



Wide Receivers

2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 25%



Tight ends

2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.

NFL Draft rate: 7.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 30.7%

Offensive Linemen

2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson

NFL Draft rate: 3.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 51.8%



No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...

OF THE 81 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY FIVE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!

YET, 29 BECAME SIGNIFICANT STARTERS IN AT LEAST ONE SEASON!!!!! A 35.8% HIT RATE FOR 3 STAR RECRUITS!!!!

So, while looking forward it may be important for our coaches to be more particular with their 3 Star offers given the option of the portal and NIL which did not exist historically for these past players, history shows there is a MUCH higher probability that such 3 Star players actually DO contribute positively to the program then Ketch's "NFL Draftee or bust" criteria indicates. So, while we all desire the 5 Stars and high 4 Stars, it is a mistake to assume that only 10-20% of 3 Starts will "hit" , as my analysis shows they "hit" more at a 35% rate as far as at least being starting level contributors to the program for at least one season.

one season starting rates aren't good things if your teams are bad or average.

It means you had an average starter... at best.

I said it in the article and I'll say it again... one big problem Texas has had in the last 10 years is that it has had to count on too many of these players.

 

[ryano013]

Ketch,

WRONG!!! I read your entire diatribe very carefully. While you did make casual recognition of some non-drafted palyers, you overall tone was still somewhat deprecating about them because they never got drafted, even if some made it the NFL via free agency. Also, why did you only provide the opening sentence of my reply above? Could it be that you did not want restate my primary point because you did not want to actually take the time to address my point to see if it had validity???

Well, it does, as I just took the time to at least do the Offensive players list you provided, and here are my quick findings where all I looked for was if they were significant starters (more than 2-3 games as injury fill in) in at least one season on the 40 acres, and the results prove my point - there are LOTS of valuable contributors to the program/team as starters who never sniff the NFL, that does not mean they were not worth recruiting or that they did not provide starting quality performance for UT for at least a season, if not more. Several of these 3 Stars actually received all conference honors as well and still never sniffed the NFL. Those UNDERLINED below were such starters for UT from your 3 Star lists below (and I provide the corresponding % of such success to contrast your "NFL drafted only" criteria % for those with completed eligibility):

Quarterbacks

2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright

NFL Draft rate: 20%

At least 1 season starter rate: 60%



Running backs

2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson (at fullback), 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 36%



Wide Receivers

2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 25%



Tight ends

2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.

NFL Draft rate: 7.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 30.7%

Offensive Linemen

2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson

NFL Draft rate: 3.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 51.8%



No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...

OF THE 81 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY FIVE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!

YET, 29 BECAME SIGNIFICANT STARTERS IN AT LEAST ONE SEASON!!!!! A 35.8% HIT RATE FOR 3 STAR RECRUITS!!!!

So, while looking forward it may be important for our coaches to be more particular with their 3 Star offers given the option of the portal and NIL which did not exist historically for these past players, history shows there is a MUCH higher probability that such 3 Star players actually DO contribute positively to the program then Ketch's "NFL Draftee or bust" criteria indicates. So, while we all desire the 5 Stars and high 4 Stars, it is a mistake to assume that only 10-20% of 3 Starts will "hit" , as my analysis shows they "hit" more at a 35% rate as far as at least being starting level contributors to the program for at least one season.

Are you saying Marcus Hutchins and Tristan Nickelson were hits? Any metrics that allows you to come to that conclusion is flawed. Most of those players you have underlined played because they had too. Because too many times UT coaches failed in developing quality depth and replenishing talent on the roster. Hence why they don't work for the university anymore.

 

[Txhorns10]

Why haven’t you been hired to the analytics side of some sports team if your crusades are so good they hold any weight? oh wait..

 

[Ketchum]

Are you saying Marcus Hutchins and Tristan Nickelson were hits? Any metrics that allows you to come to that conclusion is flawed. Most of those players you have underlined played because they had too. Because too many times UT coaches failed in developing quality depth and replenishing talent on the roster. Hence why they don't work for the university anymore.

The reason why I used the NFL Draft as a metric is because it allows me to stay out of situations where claiming bad players started for you is a good thing.

It's amazing to me the depths that people will go to push back on this concept.

 

[donjuanovan]

Would you rather have a 3 or low tier 4 star freshman take a roster spot who has a 1 in 10 chance of developing into a NFL prospect over a college sophomore that's shown he can play at the college level and manage school and everything else that goes along with it? Which do you think is going to more consistently help you win championships?

Ryan,

See my recent detailed answer to Ketch's reply to my prior comment. First, I think the "hit" rate is much higher, as far as getting a 3 Star kid who will actually develop into a starter for us, like 35%. This is much more relevant than if they end up getting drafted, as lots of really good college players do not make it to the NFL, and we care about them being good enough to help us win here at UT. We wish them the best with their NFL dreams, but what really matters is what they do for us on the 40 acres.

Also, if I have spent 2 years getting to know a kid and his family and I think my judgement and evaluation skills are better than most of my peers, then I damn sure want the kid I KNOW really well vs someone else's possible problem issue who has not proven himself to be any better than my prospect and I maybe only get 3 weeks to 2 months to evaluate them. Now, if I I can get a kid who is clearly better than my 3 Star high school prospect and just proved it in college, and wants to come to my stage to show it going forward, I am wide open to that, but I cannot count on that happening when I am having to make my decision on the 3 Star kid I really like, and when I can count on getting the high school kid I like, know and believe will work well in my system. Obviously, if the coach had a crystal ball and could see which upper classmen will be coming into the portal and want to consider UT BEFORE I offered any 3 Star kids, that would be awesome, but it does not exist, so I have to make my judgement call when the current cards are on the table.

It will be a case by case basis for now. Over time, there will probably be data points that make it more obvious to coaches what positions and needs they have in the short term vs longer term developmental spectrum that the portal is likely going to be able to successfully satisfy for them. That data development will likely end up driving those "take a 3 Star now" vs "let's pass on this 3 Star kid now with the expectation that we can get as good/if not better a kid through the portal in the next session".

 

[Ketchum]

Why haven’t you been hired to the analytics side of some sports team if your crusades are so good they hold any weight? oh wait..

Because I am the owner of the most successful college media brands in the industry?

 

[ryano013]

The reason why I used the NFL Draft as a metric is because it allows me to stay out of situations where claiming bad players started for you is a good thing.

It's amazing to me the depths that people will go to push back on this concept.

I'm pretty sure those 2 OL own the worst OL grades from Alex. There were others on that list that I could I have pointed out but those 2 were the most egregious.

 

[Ketchum]

I'm pretty sure those 2 OL own the worst OL grades from Alex. There were others on that list that I could I have pointed out but those 2 were the most egregious.

It just occurred to me that Alex has been doing grades for almost a decade and I don';t think any of the OL he has ever graded were an elite recruit.

That changes this season.

 

[Hookempop]

More boring shit from ketch. Give us some info that we don’t get, not statistics and numbers that we could find ourselves if we were bored to fvcking death. You, ONCE AGAIN zeroed in on an idea and dragged it out forever. You could have just said three stars don’t cut it. D’onte Foreman’s are few and far between. About the tenth time this month you’ve done this crap.

 

[Evytime]

Hey, the off-season is almost over.

Looking forward to writing about football on the field.

Yes sir. Writing 52 TT’s is a challenge. You handle it brilliantly.

 

[Evytime]

Yes sir. Writing 52 TT’s is a challenge. You handle it brilliantly.

 

[Hookempop]

No one has ever broke down the success rate of the three star like that.

It was new.

It was excruciating !!!

 

[ryano013]

Quarterbacks

2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright

NFL Draft rate: 20%

At least 1 season starter rate: 60%



Running backs

2002 Clint Haney, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson (at fullback), 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 36%



Wide Receivers

2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd

NFL Draft rate: 0%

At least 1 season starter rate: 25%



Tight ends

2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.

NFL Draft rate: 7.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 30.7%

Offensive Linemen

2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson

NFL Draft rate: 3.7%

At least 1 season starter rate: 51.8%

@Ketchum I think he has inadvertently made your point for you. Take the offensive linemen stat where 51.8% have started. Is there any wonder why this position group has underperformed the most the last 15 years or so? Same with the QBs. 1 big hit with Colt. The others were JAGs except for (2013 David Ash) that were forced to play because Texas had no one else. They were the tallest midget. Really this could be said about all of the position groups.

 

[Old Tascosa]

I don't know the negatives in attempting to implement this moneyball approach to recruiting utilizing your 65% HS/35% portal ratio. We're talking recruits who have to be recruited & sold on the program as opposed to contracted player trades, but the advantages seem obvious. And NIL will play an even bigger future role in the portal.

I look forward to your Blind Spots Guide for the Exceptions as a means to further refine & hopefully see implemented this new approach.

 

[Ketchum]

More boring shit from ketch. Give us some info that we don’t get, not statistics and numbers that we could find ourselves if we were bored to fvcking death. You, ONCE AGAIN zeroed in on an idea and dragged it out forever. You could have just said three stars don’t cut it. D’onte Foreman’s are few and far between. About the tenth time this month you’ve done this crap.

I'm sorry I bored you.