Things seem to be trending very nicely. I think Texas has always been his favorite if things are equal.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Dakorien Moore, Recruiting Rumors and more)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Things seem to be trending very nicely. I think Texas has always been his favorite if things are equal.
If everything goes our way in recruiting we could potentially have five 5 stars. That would be nice.
I was getting the Bussey vibes with his recruitment. You find a spot for somebody like him. Especially with Winston taking visits and Terry being two inches taller and 10 pounds lighter but he’s a freak athlete. 10.6 in the 100
I'm embarrassed to say that as a Gen X'er, I don't recall seeing any Paul Newman film that I truly enjoyed other than maybe Absence of Malice. I guess he just got passed my radar.
He can play RB here too. Find the best position for him and start him off there. He will be 235 after his freshman year. Early enrolle, strength program and nutrition. He will be 5 pounds lighter than sanders when he was drafted and definitely seems to have his head on the right way.
Hud's on lkine 1.....
Just how valuable is Dakorien Moore?
Oh, and Jamie French, Kaliq Lockett for that matter, too.
If you haven't heard, it's raining 5-star wide receiver prospects in Austin. Rather, there's a forecast of five-star showers in the coming weeks and months (I suppose we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves.).
While I've dabbled with some long-term wide receiver data from the last couple of decades over the last few years, I'd never done a deep-dive into the larger scope of the national wide receiver numbers because ... well ... frankly, I just didn't want to spend days sorting through a few thousand college careers of every wide receiver prospect from this century that has completed his playing career.
I stopped with the laziness and got it done this weekend while watching a pile of Paul Newman movies (see section No. 10). I found the end results to be quite interesting for a number of reasons.
The first thing that jumped out when sorting through the data is that the success of 5-star wide receivers was much higher in several unexpected areas. The historical numbers from the state of Texas had been so bad for so many years that only when I was able to look at the national numbers was I truly able to understand how woeful the in-state numbers had been.
The overall success of 5-stars (56.5% are drafted by NFL teams) is a little lower than you'd like, but still much higher than the state of Texas numbers had reflected. The same is true of the success among mid- to low-4 stars, as those numbers were also higher than the numbers produced by in-state prospects.
The data is pretty clear ... when you hit on a 5-star or even a high 4-star, there's a very good chance that you're going to hit pretty big (see Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell in the 2024 Draft).
Ok, let's get to the state of Texas numbers ...
On the surface, the numbers are slightly depressing because the 5-stars, mid 4-stars and low 4-stars seriously lag behind the overall national numbers, but I'm choosing to be an optimist today for a couple of reasons.
a. I've long believed that the recruiting metrics numbers would climb as the data from the most recent recruiting classes is completed because the amount of evaluation that takes place with the top prospects across the country is higher than ever. Basically, it's been my contention for the last few years that the highest of the super blue chips are even more valuable than we might think because the evaluation process in recruiting has never been better.
The wide receiver numbers tell a similar story.
From 2004-2015, only two of the top 16-rated wide receivers (12.5%) from the state of Texas emerged as NFL drafted prospects.
Yet, since 2016 the state has had five of its last six highest-rated wide receivers (all 5 stars and high 4 stars) drafted by NFL teams, with four of the five getting drafted in the first round and the other in the third round.
You might recall the names Jaylen Waddle, Ceedee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson and Devin Durvernay. The only 5-star or high 4-star wide receiver miss (as it relates to the NFL) from the state of Texas since 2016 is former Longhorns starter Brennan Eagles.
b. The sample size pre-2017 was very small, as only three receivers from Texas were ranked as 5-stars from 2002-2017. There are currently six active 5-star wide receivers in college football. As the sample size grows, combined with the current boom at the position, I would contend the value of high-level receivers will also grow.
The bottom line is that the value of prospects like Moore, Ffrench and Lockett is even higher than I suspected.
No. 2 - All The Nerdy Numbers ...
As I always say, this section won't be everyone's cup of tea. For those that don't want to see all of the in-state data, just skip to section 3. For those that love a little history, here you go ...
(All drafted players are bolded.)
Let's look at the 5 stars.
The List: 2004 - Lance Leggett (Miami), 2007 - Terrance Toliver (LSU), 2011 - Trey Metoyer (Oklahoma), 2018 - Jaylen Waddle (Alabama) and 2020 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Active 5-stars: 2019's Theo Wease (Oklahoma/Missouri), 2019's Trejan Bridges (Oklahoma/East Los Angeles JC), 2020's Demond Demas (Texas A&M/Garden City CC), 2022's Evan Stewart (Texas A&M/Oregon), 2023's Johntay Cook (Texas) and 2024 Micah Hudson (Texas Tech)
Now let's look at the high 4 stars:
The List: 2005 - Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma), 2006 - Adron Tennell (Oklahoma), 2007 - Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State), 2008 - Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M), 2008 - Darryl Stonum (Michigan), 2010 - Mike Davis (Texas), 2010 - Darius White (Texas), 2012 - Thomas Johnson (Texas A&M), 2012 - Cayleb Jones (Texas), 2013 - Derrick Griffin (Miami), 2013 - Robbie Rhodes (Baylor), 2014 - K.D. Cannon (Baylor), 2015 - Demarkus Lodge (Mississippi), 2016 - Devin Duvernay (Texas), 2017 - CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), 2018 - Brennan Eagles (Texas) and 2019 - Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
Active High 4 stars: 2021's Jojo Earle (Alabama/TCU), 2021's Quay Davis (Kansas/Jackson State/Texas Southern), 2022's Chris Marshall (Texas A&M/Ole Miss), 2023's Ryan Niblett (Texas) and 2023's Jalen Hale (Alabama)
Mid 4 Stars
The List: 2004 - Myron Hardy (Texas), 2007 - Malcolm Williams (Texas), 2008 - Dan Buckner (Texas), 2008 - Omarius Hines (Florida), 2009 - Greg Timmons (Texas), 2010 - DeAndrew White (Alabama), 2010 - Ross Apo (BYU), 2010 - Chris Jones (Texas), 2011 - Jaxon Shipley (Texas), 2013 - Jake Oliver (Texas), 2015 - Carlos Strickland (California), 2016 - Tyrie Cleveland (Florida), 2016 - Tren'Davian Dickson (Baylor/Houston), 2016 - Dee Anderson (LSU), 2017 - Charleston Rambo (Oklahoma/Miami), 2017 - Hezekiah Jones (Texas A&M), 2017 - Tyrell Shavers (Alabama/San Diego State), 2017 - Jalen Preston (Texas A&M), 2017 - Alvonte Woodard (Texas/Sam Houston State), 2018 - Joshua Moore (Texas/SMU), 2019 - Arjei Henderson (Florida/Blinn JC), 2019 - Jalen "Boobie" Curry (Arizona/Buffalo), 2019 - Elijah HIggins (Stanford) and 2019- Quentin Johnston (TCU)
Active Mid-4 stars: 2018's Dylan Wight (Texas A&M/Minnesota/TCU), 2022's Jordan Hudson (TCU/SMU), 2022's Brenen Thompson (Texas/Oklahoma), 2023's Jaquaize Pettaway (Oklahoma), 2023's Braylon James (Notre Dame), 2023's Jaden Greathouse (Notre Dame), 2023's Anthony Evans II (Georgia), 2023's Cordale Russell (TCU), 2024 Dre'lon Miller (Colorado), 2024 Zion Kearney (Oklahoma), 2024 Parker Livingstone (Texas) and 2024 Bryant Wesco (Clemson)
Low 4 Stars
The List: 2004 - Lendy Holmes (Oklahoma), 2004 - George Walker (Texas), 2004 - Jordan Shipley (Texas), 2005 - Howard Morrow (Texas A&M), 2005 - David Nelson (Florida), 2006 - Phillip Payne (Texas), 2006 - Montre Webber (Texas), 2007 - Brandon Collins (Texas), 2007 - James Kirkendoll (Texas), 2008 - D.J. Grant (Texas), 2008 - Sedrick Johnson (Iowa State), 2009 - Eric Ward (Texas Tech), 2009 - Uzoma Nwachakwu (Texas A&M), 2009 - Emory Blake (Auburn), 2010 - Terrell Reese (Utah), 2010 - John Harris (Texas), 2010 - Darius Terrell (Texas), 2011 - Derek Edwards (Texas Tech), 2011 - Ty Montgomery (Stanford), 2011 - Kameel Jackson (Oklahoma), 2012 - Corey Coleman (Baylor), 2012 - Dominque Wheeler (Texas Tech), 2012 - Bralon Addison (Michigan), 2012 - Reginald Davis (Texas Tech), 2013 - Kyrion Parker (Texas A&M), 2013 - Tori Hunter Jr. (Notre Dame), 2013 - Jacorey Warrick (Texas), 2013 - Corey Robinson (Notre Dame), 2013 - Eldridge Massington (UCLA), 2013 - Ra'Shaad Samples (Oklahoma State), 2013 - Marcell Ateman (Oklahoma State), 2013 - Devin Lauderdale (Texas Tech), 2013 - Fred Ross (Mississippi State), 2013 - Quincy Abeboyejo (Mississippi), 2014 - Lorenzo Joe (Texas), 2014 - Armanti Foreman (Texas), 2014 - Keenan Brown (Oklahoma State), 2014 - Frank Iheanacho (Texas A&M), 2015 - J.F. Thomas (Texas A&M), 2015 - Blake Lynch (Baylor), 2016 - T.J. Vasher (Texas Tech), 2016 - Quartney Davis (Texas A&M), 2016 - Courtney Lark (Houston), 2016 - LC Greenwood (Oklahoma State), 2017 - Damion Miller (Texas/Tyler JC), 2017 - K.D. Nixon (Colorado/UCLA), 2017 - Mannie Natherly (LSU/San Jacinto JC), 2017 - Camron Buckey (Texas A&M/Indiana), 2017 - Jalen Reagor (TCU), 2017 - Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State), 2018 - Drue Jackson (Washington State/Texas State), 2018 - Erik Ezukanma (Texas Tech), 2018 - Gabriel Davis (Unsigned), 2018 - Tommy Bush (Georgia/North Texas), 2018 - Caleb Chapman (Texas A&M/Oregon/Incarnate Ward), 2018 - Miles Battle (Ole Miss/Utah), 2018 - Jaylon Robinson (Oklahoma/Central Florida/Ole Miss/TCU), 2019 - Tamauzia Brown (TCU/Tyler JC), 2019 - T.Q. Jackson (Arkansas/SMU), 2019 - La'Vontae Shenault (Colorado/South Alabama), 2020 - Parker Washington (Penn State) and 2020 - Marvin Mims (Oklahoma)
Active Low-4 stars: 2019's Kam Brown (Texas A&M/UCLA/Purdue), 2020's Troy Omeire (Texas/Arizona State), 2021's Shadrach Banks (Texas A&M/TCU), 2021's J. Michael Sturdivant (California/UCLA), 2021's Ketron Jackson (Arkansas/Baylor), 2021's Theo Knox (Mississippi State/SMU), 2021's Cody Jackson (Oklahoma/Houston/Tarleton State), 2022's Armani Winfield (Baylor), 2022's Landon Sampson (South Carolina), 2022's Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), 2022's R.J. Maryland (SMU), 2022's Caleb Burton (Ohio State/Auburn), 2022's Matthew Golden (Houston/Texas), 2023's Jonah Wilson (Houston), 2023's Tyrone West (Texas Tech), 2023's Noble Johnson (Clemson), 2023's Mikal Harrison-Pilot (Houston/Texas Tech), 2023's Kyle Parker (LSU), 2024's Gekyle Baker (TCU), 2024 Freddie Dubose Jr. (Texas), 2024 Jelani Watkins (LSU), 2024 Ashton Bethel-Roman (Texas A&M), 2024's Keondre Henry (Memphis), 2024 Ivan Carreon (Oklahoma) and 2024's Ernest Campbell (Texas A&M)
No. 3 - A little more ... on Moore ...
Moore is currently ranked as a top 5 overall national prospect by all four of the major recruiting services. Here's a look at the 13 wide receivers from 2002-2024 that have finished inside the Rivals Top 5.
1st overall: 2006's Percy Harvin (1st round), 2012's Dorian Green-Beckham (2nd round) and 2024's Jermiah Smith
2nd overall: 2009's Rueben Randle (2nd round)
3rd overall: 2010's Kyle Prater (undrafted), 2011's George Farmer (undrafted) and 2018's Amon-Ra St. Brown (4th round)
4th overall: 2003's Andre Caldwell (3rd round), 2008's Julio Jones (1st round), 2019's Jaden Haselwood, 2022's Luther Burden and 2024's Ryan Williams
5th overall: 2013's Laquan Treadwell (1st round)
No. 4 - Let's talk Jaime Ffrench for a moment ...
Increased concern has spread over the last few days as Florida prep star Jamie French took a visit to LSU and buzz began to spread that the Tigers had made up ground on the Longhorns, who he has announced as a leader in the last month.
A few things to keep in mind ...
a. He has an announcement date scheduled for August 30th.
b. No player likes to have his announcement feel like a foregone conclusion, which means that there will be lots of purposeful misdirection in the hopes of making the announcement feel more mysterious and increase in magnitude. It's likely that as August 30 gets closer, Ffrench will be even coyer with his remarks about his recruitment.
c. Texas gets the last visit, which is never an insignificant thing for a prospect that has been leaning to the school with the last visit prior to visits.
Just some things to keep in mind.
No. 5 - The Rumor Mill...
... It sounds like things couldn't have gone much better for the Longhorns with regards to Darkorien Moore's visit to LSU. While some LSU reporters believe that the Tigers made up some ground, there were reports that Moore looked uninterested at various times on the visit. No one seems to be speculating that the Tigers have caught the Longhorns and one Texas source I spoke with on Sunday said that he's heard nothing to make him nervous about that recruitment.
... The visit to A&M really connected for 5-star tackle Michael Fasusi. The Longhorns are still the betting favorite, but the Aggies made a big move this weekend before he visits Oklahoma (next weekend) and Texas (June 21st).
... A Texas source on the speculation that Kelshaun Johnson might be leaning towards a commit to A&M said, "I wish we could sign them all, but we can't. We're trying to fry some bigger fish."
... The word on Lufkin DT Zion Williams is that every single visit he's taken thus far has kind of blown him away, including this weekend's visit to Arkansas. One person texted me on Sunday that the Arkansas visit probably stole some of the shine from the LSU visit and might have thrown everything up in the air. With A&M and Texas visits to follow, the next few weeks will decide his recruitment and the Longhorns will get the last say before he goes into the basement to consider his options and make a decision on July 4.
No. 6 - Are these the best of times ...
For the third time in four years, Chris Del Conte gets to hoist the Director's Cup trophy for having the best athletic department in the country.
This used to be the Stanford Trophy, as the Cardinal had won 25 of the first 26 Director's Cup Trophies, which is kind of hard to fathom.
Yet, since the pandemic wiped out the 2019-20 award, the Longhorns have topped Stanford all but once in the 2020s.
Kudos to Del Conte. This never happened before his arrival. Take a bow.
No. 7 – Goodbye to the 2024 Texas Softball season ...
Sometimes you just have to let the great Bull Hurley say everything...
Mike White's team had a hell of a season. It won the Big 12 regular-season title and had an incredible run right up until the championship series.
It was at that point against that dreaded Oklahoma Sooners that the Longhorns played a lot of their worst softball of the entire season, featuring critical errors, poor execution of the basics and mind-blowing base-running mistakes with absolutely everything on the line. The Sooners played better softball over the course of the best-of-three series, but it felt like the Longhorns gave them a lot of help.
There's one team in all of college softball that could look at the 2024 Texas softball season and view it as a disappointment and it just so happens to be Texas. Twice in the last three seasons, the Longhorns have finished as the bridesmaid behind the same Oklahoma Sooners team.
It doesn't matter that Oklahoma has literally never played anywhere in the post-season other than Norman and 30 minutes away in Oklahoma City during the duration of its four straight titles, the challenge in women's softball is to beat the Sooners when they have every possible advantage and the Longhorns flinched in the face of the challenge that they knew existed.
It's to the credit of White and his team that the bar for success is now so incredibly high, but that's where we are. If this group of players doesn't win a national championship in the next season or two, it's going to feel like the greatest Longhorns softball era of all-time came up short of its ultimate goal.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That's a LOT of picks. It's just too many. That's three more interceptions than he's thrown in two seasons of action and it would represent a big, big step backwards. It would likely mean that he really struggled in the biggest games of the year.
(Sell) Even with a new head coach and assistant coaching staff, the team probably won't look completely different. There will still be some recognizable features.
(Sell) I just don't feel that at all. Players have been for purchase for decades and now it's wide out in the open, which I can appreciate. The sport pissed down our legs and told everyone it was raining for so long that having it in the open seems scary to a lot of people. All that's changed is that the players are getting some of the money in a billion dollar enterprise that they long deserved. Does there need to be some regulation? Sure, as long as it doesn't break the law. Who is it really hurting? Why does it bother anyone?
(Semi-Buy) I'm all for maximizing financial revenues and I've watched numerous sports go all-in, but there's probably a middle ground that Texas can find that is quite valuable, yet doesn't rob from its identity. Whether it's NASCAR, the Premier League (and other professional soccer), MLB or Rocky Balboa's robe in the original Rocky ... I'm kind of used to it. We've all got to stay away from clutching our pearls over every little thing that helps the sport in this brave new world it exists in.
(Buy) Yes.
(Sell) College football is where he belongs and he knows it. I believe he stands out from the pack in college football. I'm not sure that's the case in pro football.
(Sell) There are two types of fan-bases in college football in 2024 ... those that have Lambo partnerships and those that talk about those that have Lambo partnerships.
If I were a big-time college football prospect, seeing a starting offensive lineman that hasn't won All-America honors pimping a Lambo would excite me, whether I wanted to drive a Lambo or not.
(Buy) Don't hold it against me if I'm wrong.
(Sell) I met with a known billionaire a few years ago about possibly selling the site to him, but I can't say it's something that I have seriously thought about. I love what I do and it's all I've known since I was in my early 20s.
(Buy/Sell/Buy) I don't get the sense that there is a shot clock on whatever Texas does. It might take more than a few more days. Yes, I fully expect someone with a track record of some national success.
(Buy) Caleb Chester is a solid bet at the very least. Preparations have been made.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... Congrats, Xavier. The only thing better than NIL is fully guaranteed first-round contracts.
... Ho-hum, Scottie Scheffler won another PGA Tournament. It's about time, he was starting to slack with these run of the mill top 5 finishes.
... We're 53 days away from NFL pre-season football. Hold the rope, folks.
... Go Edmonton.
... The USMNT's 5-1 loss to Colombia was a rude awakening. There's more where that came from if we just keep settling for being slightly better than Mexico.
... This was the look on James Harden's girlfriend caught the bouquet at a wedding this weekend.
... Caitlin Clark not making the women's Olympic team isn't some sort of campaign to keep her down, but I think a lot of people around the entire world would like to see the most popular women's basketball player on the planet. It would certainly make it more interesting. Ultimately, they preferred a 41-year-old Diana Taurasi.
... I didn't watch a single second of the French Open. That's unusual for me, but it just kind of happened.
... It does feel like Carlos Alcaraz is on his way to being a potential all-time great. He's ahead of Rafa Nadal's pace when it comes to winning major titles on three surfaces.
... Pop-quiz: Do you know who Iga Swiatek is?
No. 10 - Top 10: Paul Newman ...
Here's the thing ... I didn't mean to go on another movie odyssey this week after taking on 11 Gene Hackman movies last week, but my favorite podcast (The Re-watchables) focused on Slap Shot.
I'd never seen Slap Shot. I know ... I know ... how is that possible as a kid from the 80s? I don't have a good answer. So, when I watched it this week, I found myself on a Paul Newman kick and the next thing you know, he's the focus of this week's Top 10.
For those wondering, I watched the following this week: Slap Shot (Tuesday night), Hud (Wednesday night), Harper (Thursday night), Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (Friday mid-day), Nobody's Fool (Friday night), Absence of Malice (Saturday morning), Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (Saturday afternoon), Road to Perdition (Saturday night), Somebody Up There Likes Me (Sunday morning) and The Burning Inferno (Sunday afternoon).
Before anyone tells me that I need to stop watching movies and start hanging out with my family, I just want to note for the record that I took them to a birthday party on Friday afternoon, to the pool on Saturday and to Dave and Buster's on Saturday night.
Also, just for the record, Newman is fantastic, but I think I prefer Hackman.
Ok, let's do this.
Honorable Mention: Hud, The Towering Inferno, Somebody Up There Likes Me, The Hudsucker Proxy, Cars, Harper, Absence of Malice, Sweet Bird of Youth, The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean, Hombre and The Young Philadelphians
10. Nobody’s Fool
I very seriously considered The Towering Inferno and Hud for the last spot, but at the end of the day Nobody's Fool is a showcase for all of Newman's charismatic strength as he entered his older years. Plus, it has a great Philip Seymour Hoffman scene.
9. Road to Perdition
An underrated Tom Hanks movie, this is probably the last great Newman performance of his acting career.
8. The Color of Money
This has always been a favorite of mine, so it pains me to rank it in the No .8 slot, but we're about to get into some rarified air.
7. Slap Shot
I finally understand all of the Hanson Brother jokes I've heard my entire life.
6. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
I know this is going to drive a few of you crazy, but I just don't love this movie as much as I love the movies I've ranked above it, even if I can acknowledge that it has inspired 50+ years of movies with its creation.
5. Cat on a Hot Tin Roof
This might be my favorite Liz Taylor performance of all-time. Add in Tennessee Williams, a sensational Burt Ives as Big Daddy and maybe the best performance from Newman in the 1950s, and you've got a movie that is going to rank high on my list.
4. Cool Hand Luke
There is no better showcase for the greatness of Newman's on-screen charisma than his performance in this movie, even if Newman's personal biographer Lawrence J. Quirk considered it one Newman's weakest performances.
3. The Verdict
One of the most underrated movies of the 1980s and the best performance from Newman in the final 30 years of his acting career.
2. The Hustler
It feels like a sin to rank this outside of the top spot, but I simply prefer another movie the most. It's like trying to rank a pile of five-stars.
1. The Sting
It's the original Ocean's 11... a heist movie with cooler than cool movie stars at the height of their powers. Newman and Robert Redford are at their absolute peak and are given the iconic Robert Shaw as their chief foe. It's the rare perfect movie as far as I'm concerned.
@Ketchum how could you even ask about knowing Iga Swiatek! She has been #1 or #2 since around the time Ash Barty retired (April, 2022). She won her 4th French Open with the only challenge coming from Naomi Osaka in the first round. She is the overwhelming favorite to win gold in the Olympics on the same court she won on yesterday. She isn't winning any beauty contests. Maybe that is why she isn't as well known.
If I had an answer to the question, I wouldn't have asked the question that I did. I don't have a good answer.
What’s with the usual board cucks worrying about NIL and lambos? Some real softies around here.
“I hate lambos” - something few if any 18 year old football playing boys would say.
“I hated my Texas visit because the had lambos” - something no recruit has ever said.
Reeks of weird jealousy to me. Cant understand why anyone would question that.
“I hate lambos” - something few if any 18 year old football playing boys would say.
“I hated my Texas visit because the had lambos” - something no recruit has ever said.
Reeks of weird jealousy to me. Cant understand why anyone would question that.
Sometimes A Great Notion, is a must watch.
Giving the bird with the severed arm, is a visual that has stuck with me for 50+ years.
Giving the bird with the severed arm, is a visual that has stuck with me for 50+ years.
Yeah, it's ridiculous. The kids love looking at them , if nothing else.
I told you our discussions to buy OB was not to be disclosed here
You likely didn’t watch Exodus, one of his early movies. It was a good movie for its day, and I read that playing a Jewish hero meant a lot to a him since his father was Jewish and he considered himself Jewish as well.
Just how valuable is Dakorien Moore?
Oh, and Jamie French, Kaliq Lockett for that matter, too.
If you haven't heard, it's raining 5-star wide receiver prospects in Austin. Rather, there's a forecast of five-star showers in the coming weeks and months (I suppose we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves.).
While I've dabbled with some long-term wide receiver data from the last couple of decades over the last few years, I'd never done a deep-dive into the larger scope of the national wide receiver numbers because ... well ... frankly, I just didn't want to spend days sorting through a few thousand college careers of every wide receiver prospect from this century that has completed his playing career.
I stopped with the laziness and got it done this weekend while watching a pile of Paul Newman movies (see section No. 10). I found the end results to be quite interesting for a number of reasons.
The first thing that jumped out when sorting through the data is that the success of 5-star wide receivers was much higher in several unexpected areas. The historical numbers from the state of Texas had been so bad for so many years that only when I was able to look at the national numbers was I truly able to understand how woeful the in-state numbers had been.
The overall success of 5-stars (56.5% are drafted by NFL teams) is a little lower than you'd like, but still much higher than the state of Texas numbers had reflected. The same is true of the success among mid- to low-4 stars, as those numbers were also higher than the numbers produced by in-state prospects.
The data is pretty clear ... when you hit on a 5-star or even a high 4-star, there's a very good chance that you're going to hit pretty big (see Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell in the 2024 Draft).
Ok, let's get to the state of Texas numbers ...
On the surface, the numbers are slightly depressing because the 5-stars, mid 4-stars and low 4-stars seriously lag behind the overall national numbers, but I'm choosing to be an optimist today for a couple of reasons.
a. I've long believed that the recruiting metrics numbers would climb as the data from the most recent recruiting classes is completed because the amount of evaluation that takes place with the top prospects across the country is higher than ever. Basically, it's been my contention for the last few years that the highest of the super blue chips are even more valuable than we might think because the evaluation process in recruiting has never been better.
The wide receiver numbers tell a similar story.
From 2004-2015, only two of the top 16-rated wide receivers (12.5%) from the state of Texas emerged as NFL drafted prospects.
Yet, since 2016 the state has had five of its last six highest-rated wide receivers (all 5 stars and high 4 stars) drafted by NFL teams, with four of the five getting drafted in the first round and the other in the third round.
You might recall the names Jaylen Waddle, Ceedee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson and Devin Durvernay. The only 5-star or high 4-star wide receiver miss (as it relates to the NFL) from the state of Texas since 2016 is former Longhorns starter Brennan Eagles.
b. The sample size pre-2017 was very small, as only three receivers from Texas were ranked as 5-stars from 2002-2017. There are currently six active 5-star wide receivers in college football. As the sample size grows, combined with the current boom at the position, I would contend the value of high-level receivers will also grow.
The bottom line is that the value of prospects like Moore, Ffrench and Lockett is even higher than I suspected.
No. 2 - All The Nerdy Numbers ...
As I always say, this section won't be everyone's cup of tea. For those that don't want to see all of the in-state data, just skip to section 3. For those that love a little history, here you go ...
(All drafted players are bolded.)
Let's look at the 5 stars.
The List: 2004 - Lance Leggett (Miami), 2007 - Terrance Toliver (LSU), 2011 - Trey Metoyer (Oklahoma), 2018 - Jaylen Waddle (Alabama) and 2020 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Active 5-stars: 2019's Theo Wease (Oklahoma/Missouri), 2019's Trejan Bridges (Oklahoma/East Los Angeles JC), 2020's Demond Demas (Texas A&M/Garden City CC), 2022's Evan Stewart (Texas A&M/Oregon), 2023's Johntay Cook (Texas) and 2024 Micah Hudson (Texas Tech)
Now let's look at the high 4 stars:
The List: 2005 - Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma), 2006 - Adron Tennell (Oklahoma), 2007 - Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State), 2008 - Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M), 2008 - Darryl Stonum (Michigan), 2010 - Mike Davis (Texas), 2010 - Darius White (Texas), 2012 - Thomas Johnson (Texas A&M), 2012 - Cayleb Jones (Texas), 2013 - Derrick Griffin (Miami), 2013 - Robbie Rhodes (Baylor), 2014 - K.D. Cannon (Baylor), 2015 - Demarkus Lodge (Mississippi), 2016 - Devin Duvernay (Texas), 2017 - CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), 2018 - Brennan Eagles (Texas) and 2019 - Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
Active High 4 stars: 2021's Jojo Earle (Alabama/TCU), 2021's Quay Davis (Kansas/Jackson State/Texas Southern), 2022's Chris Marshall (Texas A&M/Ole Miss), 2023's Ryan Niblett (Texas) and 2023's Jalen Hale (Alabama)
Mid 4 Stars
The List: 2004 - Myron Hardy (Texas), 2007 - Malcolm Williams (Texas), 2008 - Dan Buckner (Texas), 2008 - Omarius Hines (Florida), 2009 - Greg Timmons (Texas), 2010 - DeAndrew White (Alabama), 2010 - Ross Apo (BYU), 2010 - Chris Jones (Texas), 2011 - Jaxon Shipley (Texas), 2013 - Jake Oliver (Texas), 2015 - Carlos Strickland (California), 2016 - Tyrie Cleveland (Florida), 2016 - Tren'Davian Dickson (Baylor/Houston), 2016 - Dee Anderson (LSU), 2017 - Charleston Rambo (Oklahoma/Miami), 2017 - Hezekiah Jones (Texas A&M), 2017 - Tyrell Shavers (Alabama/San Diego State), 2017 - Jalen Preston (Texas A&M), 2017 - Alvonte Woodard (Texas/Sam Houston State), 2018 - Joshua Moore (Texas/SMU), 2019 - Arjei Henderson (Florida/Blinn JC), 2019 - Jalen "Boobie" Curry (Arizona/Buffalo), 2019 - Elijah HIggins (Stanford) and 2019- Quentin Johnston (TCU)
Active Mid-4 stars: 2018's Dylan Wight (Texas A&M/Minnesota/TCU), 2022's Jordan Hudson (TCU/SMU), 2022's Brenen Thompson (Texas/Oklahoma), 2023's Jaquaize Pettaway (Oklahoma), 2023's Braylon James (Notre Dame), 2023's Jaden Greathouse (Notre Dame), 2023's Anthony Evans II (Georgia), 2023's Cordale Russell (TCU), 2024 Dre'lon Miller (Colorado), 2024 Zion Kearney (Oklahoma), 2024 Parker Livingstone (Texas) and 2024 Bryant Wesco (Clemson)
Low 4 Stars
The List: 2004 - Lendy Holmes (Oklahoma), 2004 - George Walker (Texas), 2004 - Jordan Shipley (Texas), 2005 - Howard Morrow (Texas A&M), 2005 - David Nelson (Florida), 2006 - Phillip Payne (Texas), 2006 - Montre Webber (Texas), 2007 - Brandon Collins (Texas), 2007 - James Kirkendoll (Texas), 2008 - D.J. Grant (Texas), 2008 - Sedrick Johnson (Iowa State), 2009 - Eric Ward (Texas Tech), 2009 - Uzoma Nwachakwu (Texas A&M), 2009 - Emory Blake (Auburn), 2010 - Terrell Reese (Utah), 2010 - John Harris (Texas), 2010 - Darius Terrell (Texas), 2011 - Derek Edwards (Texas Tech), 2011 - Ty Montgomery (Stanford), 2011 - Kameel Jackson (Oklahoma), 2012 - Corey Coleman (Baylor), 2012 - Dominque Wheeler (Texas Tech), 2012 - Bralon Addison (Michigan), 2012 - Reginald Davis (Texas Tech), 2013 - Kyrion Parker (Texas A&M), 2013 - Tori Hunter Jr. (Notre Dame), 2013 - Jacorey Warrick (Texas), 2013 - Corey Robinson (Notre Dame), 2013 - Eldridge Massington (UCLA), 2013 - Ra'Shaad Samples (Oklahoma State), 2013 - Marcell Ateman (Oklahoma State), 2013 - Devin Lauderdale (Texas Tech), 2013 - Fred Ross (Mississippi State), 2013 - Quincy Abeboyejo (Mississippi), 2014 - Lorenzo Joe (Texas), 2014 - Armanti Foreman (Texas), 2014 - Keenan Brown (Oklahoma State), 2014 - Frank Iheanacho (Texas A&M), 2015 - J.F. Thomas (Texas A&M), 2015 - Blake Lynch (Baylor), 2016 - T.J. Vasher (Texas Tech), 2016 - Quartney Davis (Texas A&M), 2016 - Courtney Lark (Houston), 2016 - LC Greenwood (Oklahoma State), 2017 - Damion Miller (Texas/Tyler JC), 2017 - K.D. Nixon (Colorado/UCLA), 2017 - Mannie Natherly (LSU/San Jacinto JC), 2017 - Camron Buckey (Texas A&M/Indiana), 2017 - Jalen Reagor (TCU), 2017 - Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State), 2018 - Drue Jackson (Washington State/Texas State), 2018 - Erik Ezukanma (Texas Tech), 2018 - Gabriel Davis (Unsigned), 2018 - Tommy Bush (Georgia/North Texas), 2018 - Caleb Chapman (Texas A&M/Oregon/Incarnate Ward), 2018 - Miles Battle (Ole Miss/Utah), 2018 - Jaylon Robinson (Oklahoma/Central Florida/Ole Miss/TCU), 2019 - Tamauzia Brown (TCU/Tyler JC), 2019 - T.Q. Jackson (Arkansas/SMU), 2019 - La'Vontae Shenault (Colorado/South Alabama), 2020 - Parker Washington (Penn State) and 2020 - Marvin Mims (Oklahoma)
Active Low-4 stars: 2019's Kam Brown (Texas A&M/UCLA/Purdue), 2020's Troy Omeire (Texas/Arizona State), 2021's Shadrach Banks (Texas A&M/TCU), 2021's J. Michael Sturdivant (California/UCLA), 2021's Ketron Jackson (Arkansas/Baylor), 2021's Theo Knox (Mississippi State/SMU), 2021's Cody Jackson (Oklahoma/Houston/Tarleton State), 2022's Armani Winfield (Baylor), 2022's Landon Sampson (South Carolina), 2022's Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), 2022's R.J. Maryland (SMU), 2022's Caleb Burton (Ohio State/Auburn), 2022's Matthew Golden (Houston/Texas), 2023's Jonah Wilson (Houston), 2023's Tyrone West (Texas Tech), 2023's Noble Johnson (Clemson), 2023's Mikal Harrison-Pilot (Houston/Texas Tech), 2023's Kyle Parker (LSU), 2024's Gekyle Baker (TCU), 2024 Freddie Dubose Jr. (Texas), 2024 Jelani Watkins (LSU), 2024 Ashton Bethel-Roman (Texas A&M), 2024's Keondre Henry (Memphis), 2024 Ivan Carreon (Oklahoma) and 2024's Ernest Campbell (Texas A&M)
No. 3 - A little more ... on Moore ...
Moore is currently ranked as a top 5 overall national prospect by all four of the major recruiting services. Here's a look at the 13 wide receivers from 2002-2024 that have finished inside the Rivals Top 5.
1st overall: 2006's Percy Harvin (1st round), 2012's Dorian Green-Beckham (2nd round) and 2024's Jermiah Smith
2nd overall: 2009's Rueben Randle (2nd round)
3rd overall: 2010's Kyle Prater (undrafted), 2011's George Farmer (undrafted) and 2018's Amon-Ra St. Brown (4th round)
4th overall: 2003's Andre Caldwell (3rd round), 2008's Julio Jones (1st round), 2019's Jaden Haselwood, 2022's Luther Burden and 2024's Ryan Williams
5th overall: 2013's Laquan Treadwell (1st round)
No. 4 - Let's talk Jaime Ffrench for a moment ...
Increased concern has spread over the last few days as Florida prep star Jamie French took a visit to LSU and buzz began to spread that the Tigers had made up ground on the Longhorns, who he has announced as a leader in the last month.
A few things to keep in mind ...
a. He has an announcement date scheduled for August 30th.
b. No player likes to have his announcement feel like a foregone conclusion, which means that there will be lots of purposeful misdirection in the hopes of making the announcement feel more mysterious and increase in magnitude. It's likely that as August 30 gets closer, Ffrench will be even coyer with his remarks about his recruitment.
c. Texas gets the last visit, which is never an insignificant thing for a prospect that has been leaning to the school with the last visit prior to visits.
Just some things to keep in mind.
No. 5 - The Rumor Mill...
... It sounds like things couldn't have gone much better for the Longhorns with regards to Darkorien Moore's visit to LSU. While some LSU reporters believe that the Tigers made up some ground, there were reports that Moore looked uninterested at various times on the visit. No one seems to be speculating that the Tigers have caught the Longhorns and one Texas source I spoke with on Sunday said that he's heard nothing to make him nervous about that recruitment.
... The visit to A&M really connected for 5-star tackle Michael Fasusi. The Longhorns are still the betting favorite, but the Aggies made a big move this weekend before he visits Oklahoma (next weekend) and Texas (June 21st).
... A Texas source on the speculation that Kelshaun Johnson might be leaning towards a commit to A&M said, "I wish we could sign them all, but we can't. We're trying to fry some bigger fish."
... The word on Lufkin DT Zion Williams is that every single visit he's taken thus far has kind of blown him away, including this weekend's visit to Arkansas. One person texted me on Sunday that the Arkansas visit probably stole some of the shine from the LSU visit and might have thrown everything up in the air. With A&M and Texas visits to follow, the next few weeks will decide his recruitment and the Longhorns will get the last say before he goes into the basement to consider his options and make a decision on July 4.
No. 6 - Are these the best of times ...
For the third time in four years, Chris Del Conte gets to hoist the Director's Cup trophy for having the best athletic department in the country.
This used to be the Stanford Trophy, as the Cardinal had won 25 of the first 26 Director's Cup Trophies, which is kind of hard to fathom.
Yet, since the pandemic wiped out the 2019-20 award, the Longhorns have topped Stanford all but once in the 2020s.
Kudos to Del Conte. This never happened before his arrival. Take a bow.
No. 7 – Goodbye to the 2024 Texas Softball season ...
Sometimes you just have to let the great Bull Hurley say everything...
Mike White's team had a hell of a season. It won the Big 12 regular-season title and had an incredible run right up until the championship series.
It was at that point against that dreaded Oklahoma Sooners that the Longhorns played a lot of their worst softball of the entire season, featuring critical errors, poor execution of the basics and mind-blowing base-running mistakes with absolutely everything on the line. The Sooners played better softball over the course of the best-of-three series, but it felt like the Longhorns gave them a lot of help.
There's one team in all of college softball that could look at the 2024 Texas softball season and view it as a disappointment and it just so happens to be Texas. Twice in the last three seasons, the Longhorns have finished as the bridesmaid behind the same Oklahoma Sooners team.
It doesn't matter that Oklahoma has literally never played anywhere in the post-season other than Norman and 30 minutes away in Oklahoma City during the duration of its four straight titles, the challenge in women's softball is to beat the Sooners when they have every possible advantage and the Longhorns flinched in the face of the challenge that they knew existed.
It's to the credit of White and his team that the bar for success is now so incredibly high, but that's where we are. If this group of players doesn't win a national championship in the next season or two, it's going to feel like the greatest Longhorns softball era of all-time came up short of its ultimate goal.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That's a LOT of picks. It's just too many. That's three more interceptions than he's thrown in two seasons of action and it would represent a big, big step backwards. It would likely mean that he really struggled in the biggest games of the year.
(Sell) Even with a new head coach and assistant coaching staff, the team probably won't look completely different. There will still be some recognizable features.
(Sell) I just don't feel that at all. Players have been for purchase for decades and now it's wide out in the open, which I can appreciate. The sport pissed down our legs and told everyone it was raining for so long that having it in the open seems scary to a lot of people. All that's changed is that the players are getting some of the money in a billion dollar enterprise that they long deserved. Does there need to be some regulation? Sure, as long as it doesn't break the law. Who is it really hurting? Why does it bother anyone?
(Semi-Buy) I'm all for maximizing financial revenues and I've watched numerous sports go all-in, but there's probably a middle ground that Texas can find that is quite valuable, yet doesn't rob from its identity. Whether it's NASCAR, the Premier League (and other professional soccer), MLB or Rocky Balboa's robe in the original Rocky ... I'm kind of used to it. We've all got to stay away from clutching our pearls over every little thing that helps the sport in this brave new world it exists in.
(Buy) Yes.
(Sell) College football is where he belongs and he knows it. I believe he stands out from the pack in college football. I'm not sure that's the case in pro football.
(Sell) There are two types of fan-bases in college football in 2024 ... those that have Lambo partnerships and those that talk about those that have Lambo partnerships.
If I were a big-time college football prospect, seeing a starting offensive lineman that hasn't won All-America honors pimping a Lambo would excite me, whether I wanted to drive a Lambo or not.
(Buy) Don't hold it against me if I'm wrong.
(Sell) I met with a known billionaire a few years ago about possibly selling the site to him, but I can't say it's something that I have seriously thought about. I love what I do and it's all I've known since I was in my early 20s.
(Buy/Sell/Buy) I don't get the sense that there is a shot clock on whatever Texas does. It might take more than a few more days. Yes, I fully expect someone with a track record of some national success.
(Buy) Caleb Chester is a solid bet at the very least. Preparations have been made.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... Congrats, Xavier. The only thing better than NIL is fully guaranteed first-round contracts.
... Ho-hum, Scottie Scheffler won another PGA Tournament. It's about time, he was starting to slack with these run of the mill top 5 finishes.
... We're 53 days away from NFL pre-season football. Hold the rope, folks.
... Go Edmonton.
... The USMNT's 5-1 loss to Colombia was a rude awakening. There's more where that came from if we just keep settling for being slightly better than Mexico.
... This was the look on James Harden's girlfriend caught the bouquet at a wedding this weekend.
... Caitlin Clark not making the women's Olympic team isn't some sort of campaign to keep her down, but I think a lot of people around the entire world would like to see the most popular women's basketball player on the planet. It would certainly make it more interesting. Ultimately, they preferred a 41-year-old Diana Taurasi.
... I didn't watch a single second of the French Open. That's unusual for me, but it just kind of happened.
... It does feel like Carlos Alcaraz is on his way to being a potential all-time great. He's ahead of Rafa Nadal's pace when it comes to winning major titles on three surfaces.
... Pop-quiz: Do you know who Iga Swiatek is?
No. 10 - Top 10: Paul Newman ...
Here's the thing ... I didn't mean to go on another movie odyssey this week after taking on 11 Gene Hackman movies last week, but my favorite podcast (The Re-watchables) focused on Slap Shot.
I'd never seen Slap Shot. I know ... I know ... how is that possible as a kid from the 80s? I don't have a good answer. So, when I watched it this week, I found myself on a Paul Newman kick and the next thing you know, he's the focus of this week's Top 10.
For those wondering, I watched the following this week: Slap Shot (Tuesday night), Hud (Wednesday night), Harper (Thursday night), Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (Friday mid-day), Nobody's Fool (Friday night), Absence of Malice (Saturday morning), Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (Saturday afternoon), Road to Perdition (Saturday night), Somebody Up There Likes Me (Sunday morning) and The Burning Inferno (Sunday afternoon).
Before anyone tells me that I need to stop watching movies and start hanging out with my family, I just want to note for the record that I took them to a birthday party on Friday afternoon, to the pool on Saturday and to Dave and Buster's on Saturday night.
Also, just for the record, Newman is fantastic, but I think I prefer Hackman.
Ok, let's do this.
Honorable Mention: Hud, The Towering Inferno, Somebody Up There Likes Me, The Hudsucker Proxy, Cars, Harper, Absence of Malice, Sweet Bird of Youth, The Life and Times of Judge Roy Bean, Hombre and The Young Philadelphians
10. Nobody’s Fool
I very seriously considered The Towering Inferno and Hud for the last spot, but at the end of the day Nobody's Fool is a showcase for all of Newman's charismatic strength as he entered his older years. Plus, it has a great Philip Seymour Hoffman scene.
9. Road to Perdition
An underrated Tom Hanks movie, this is probably the last great Newman performance of his acting career.
8. The Color of Money
This has always been a favorite of mine, so it pains me to rank it in the No .8 slot, but we're about to get into some rarified air.
7. Slap Shot
I finally understand all of the Hanson Brother jokes I've heard my entire life.
6. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
I know this is going to drive a few of you crazy, but I just don't love this movie as much as I love the movies I've ranked above it, even if I can acknowledge that it has inspired 50+ years of movies with its creation.
5. Cat on a Hot Tin Roof
This might be my favorite Liz Taylor performance of all-time. Add in Tennessee Williams, a sensational Burt Ives as Big Daddy and maybe the best performance from Newman in the 1950s, and you've got a movie that is going to rank high on my list.
4. Cool Hand Luke
There is no better showcase for the greatness of Newman's on-screen charisma than his performance in this movie, even if Newman's personal biographer Lawrence J. Quirk considered it one Newman's weakest performances.
3. The Verdict
One of the most underrated movies of the 1980s and the best performance from Newman in the final 30 years of his acting career.
2. The Hustler
It feels like a sin to rank this outside of the top spot, but I simply prefer another movie the most. It's like trying to rank a pile of five-stars.
1. The Sting
It's the original Ocean's 11... a heist movie with cooler than cool movie stars at the height of their powers. Newman and Robert Redford are at their absolute peak and are given the iconic Robert Shaw as their chief foe. It's the rare perfect movie as far as I'm concerned.
Great article ketch, that’s a hell of a lot of effort you put into these research pieces on recruit outcomes - it’s impressive and informative
Don’t see anyone else in the industry doing all that work, well done !
I suppose it's good thing there were 8 other sections this week to the column!
Great work here.
Hard to decide who is mostly likely to be a movie star, Xavier or his Mom.
It does matter that Ou has never played anything other than a home game. Completely unfair to all other teams, especially Texas, since their fans hate us so much.
The Memorial is not just any old golf tournament.
Hard to decide who is mostly likely to be a movie star, Xavier or his Mom.
It does matter that Ou has never played anything other than a home game. Completely unfair to all other teams, especially Texas, since their fans hate us so much.
The Memorial is not just any old golf tournament.
This is a very important point. It’s also why basketball recruiting rankings for the elite prospects has been much more accurate for much longer than football counterparts. They were scouted in real live action against real top competition.
a. The advantage for OU is ridiculous. There's nothing else to really compare to in sports.
b. The comment about The Memorial was tongue in cheek.
I mean he did say if you weren’t a numbers nerd to skip it. I’m not one and took his advice. The numbers are interesting but not into reading all the small details.
I just think it's important to show the work as much as possible. That's what I was told to do in the fourth grade.
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