Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Have I lost my mind? Quite possibly...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I am fairly certain Okafor is going to succeed this year simply because he is going to finally be at guard where he should have been all along.
The left side of the line with Cosmi, Angilau, and Kerstetter is going to be fun to run behind.
The left side of the line with Cosmi, Angilau, and Kerstetter is going to be fun to run behind.
Thanks for a great column, Ketch.
I am sure it is an oversight. But what about the Greatest Movie Ever - Wonder Woman?
You are welcome.
I am sure it is an oversight. But what about the Greatest Movie Ever - Wonder Woman?
You are welcome.
The Town is allsome, but it made me hate Jeremy Renner. Guess that’s what made it a great movie.
It’s pretty great. I mean those two guys are kind of modern twists of Martin and Candy. Let me know if you enjoy it.
I’ll gladly take a “solid” year by Okafor. I think he will eventually lose his spot midway through the year though.
That was what was called an attacking John Mackovic/Gary Darnell defense.
I can't believe I'm about to type what I'm about to type.
Yet, it's something that's been rolling around in my head for the last couple of weeks and it came to the forefront of my mind following this week's TicketCity Podcast.
You guys ready? Here goes ...
Is it possible that the 2020 Texas offensive line is underrated going into the season?
I say that as someone that has generally been a seller on Texas offensive lines going back to 2007, which is to say that I'm generally the most unlikely source of an emerging hype man for Herb Hand's group as anyone in this town. In fact, I'll be the first to admit that last year's offensive line was very serviceable in my mind, but certainly not a true-plus, which is concerning when you factor in the losses of departing 2019 seniors Zach Shackelford and Parker Braun.
Rather than focus on what Texas doesn't have available to it going into the season, I find myself focusing more on what Texas does have going into the season ... at least on paper.
Let's just talk about these positives.
* Fourth-year left tackle Sam Cosmi might not be the best offensive lineman in the Big 12, but there's not a better NFL prospect/blind-side protector in the league, which makes him one of the most important foundation pieces that any offensive line in the country will bring to the table this season.
* Senior right tackle/possible starting center Derek Kerstetter didn't make a single all-Big 12 team in 2019, but Pro Football Focus reports that he has the highest returning pass protection grade of any lineman in a power five program in the entire country.
* Sophomore guard Junior Angilau was a solid performer in his first season as a starter, but he's getting set to enter his third season on the 40 Acres and this is generally considered the ballpark of time when most linemen see their light switch truly flip on. When you consider that he was one of the best freshmen offensive linemen in the Big 12 a year ago, it's not a stretch at all to suggest that Texas has a potential force on its hands in Angilau.
Ok, let's just stop for a moment and make this observation - few teams in the nation have a better foundation trio of linemen on paper than the Longhorns. We're talking about a first-round pick at left tackle, a nationally elite of the elite senior pass protector opposite that first round pick and a third year returning interior piece that still has three seasons of plus-play in front of him.
When we spoke as a staff on the podcast this week, one of the debates that took place was whether this offensive line could actually be a dominant unit and help take some of the pressure off of Sam Ehlinger. Obviously, there are two others spots on the line and health is a major piece of this equation, but Texas hasn't had a trio of returning players as good as the three that it has on paper since 2006.
Now, let's talk about the other two pieces of the puzzle.
While Denzel Okafor has been a disappointment in his career at Texas thus far, the senior actually graded a smidge behind Shackelford last season in terms average game score per Alex Dunlap's Deep Dig rankings, so it's fair to wonder if a Kerstetter/Okafor combo can be better than a Kerstetter/Shackelford combo from a year ago.
That leaves replacing Parker Braun as the sole remaining task, which is a fascinating little talking point when you consider that he ranked second on the team in average grade per game among offensive linemen in Dunlap's rankings, but there were times when his negative plays could truly be negative and however good he was as a college player, we're not talking about an NFL-level physical talent.
If you're only as strong as your weakest link, the Longhorns have a potential problem here because that fifth starter is a bit of an uncompleted puzzle, especially with the Longhorns losing the benefit of spring workouts.
Obviously, the back end of this equation when regarding the strength of the line going into this season is a big enough question mark that it seems to be overshadowing the line’s strengths. Of course, injuries are a looming cloud, but I'd also contend that there aren't many offensive lines around the country that won't take a big dip if a couple of starters go out.
Ultimately, the question I have for the Longhorns up front is whether they can find a fifth starter at guard that can be solid enough that the improvements and strengths of the group prove to be much more impactful than anything that the turnover at left guard is going to create.
I'm not sure it's probable that this group turns the type of unit that makes people forget the 2005-06 units, but people might not have to wait long for the group's name to be called when ranking units post-2006.
This group can be the best line this program has seen in 14 years. That possibility alone might just make it underrated at this point.
No. 2 - The importance of Denzel Okafor ...
The combination of all the various b-a-n-a-n-a-s of 2020 has distracted us from a lot of things, but it's crazy to think how important Okafor is to the 2020 offensive blueprint and how close he came to leaving the program.
All these months later, it feels even clearer that losing Okafor as an option for this offensive line would have been really impactful, considering he's the only returner from the pool of back-ups from a year ago that is still available that has some productive play under his belt.
I feel like we know we're going to see "solid" play from Okafor in 2020 as a basement, which makes the wildcard spot on the line focused on one spot and not two.
That might not seem like a big deal, but when and if this team hits the field in August, it's going to need to figure out its best five in a hurry and experimentation will be something that will need to be delayed until 2021.
The situation feels so much more manageable with his presence in the program, which is kind of ironic when you consider that he's never quite managed to hit his ceiling as a player.
No. 3 - Most underrated sure-thing in the program?
It might just be junior place-kicker Cameron Dicker.
Although Dicker hasn't yet been a guy that you'd say has been an elite performer in his career, let me tell you what he has been.
* A game-winner against Oklahoma.
* 32 of 43 (74.4%) on all field goals in two years.
* Has the kind of leg strength to make a 57-yard kick.
* Knocks 63+ percent of his kickoffs into the touchback designation.
You add it all up and he might not be a headliner on the college football circuit, but he feels like the least of Tom Herman's concerns going into the season. Considering the importance of that third phase of the game, having your place-kicker represent one of the safest and most secure elements of the team is almost valuable enough to warrant calling him by his team.
#kickersnamesareimportant
No. 4 - Joseph Ossai Prop Bet ...
A season ago, junior defensive end Joseph Ossai recorded five sacks, with 60 percent of them coming in the final game of the season.
With everyone, including myself, expecting a monster season from Ossai, I'm asking the following question.
If I tell you that he's going to stay healthy all season long and I set his sack total this year at 10.5, are you taking the over or the under?
Keep in mind that since 2009, only Alex Okafor (12.5 in 2012) and Jackson Jeffcoat (13 in 2013) have posted double-digit sacks in the Texas program since 2009.
One side of my brain is telling me that the under is the smart play, but the other side of my brain is telling me that he might just surpass Jeffcoat's 2013 total if he stays healthy and plays in 14 games.
No. 5 - Stat of the Weekend ...
Since 1986, the Longhorns have had only eight different players record double-digit sack totals in a single season and nine have posted more than Jeffcoat's 13 in 2013. Yet, from 1975-1985, the Longhorns had eight different players post double-digit sack season, including five that surpassed Jeffcoat's 13 in 2013.
That means that zero of the school's top five all-time pass rushing seasons by sack totals have occurred in the last 38 years (kiki DeAyala had 22.5 in 1982)
Here's a look at the numbers post 1986:
13.0: Jackson Jeffcoat (2013)
12.5: Alex Okafor (2012)
11.5: Brian Orakpo (2008)
10.5: Tim Crowder (2006)
10.0: Sam Acho (2009)
10.0: Tony Brackens (1993)
10.0: Shane Dronett (1990)
10.0: Aaron Humphrey (1998 and 1999)
No. 6 - State of the Weekend (Part II) ...
Yes, Kiki DeAyala's 33 tackles for loss in 1982 is one of the freakiest defensive numbers I've ever seen posted by any defensive player in any season ever played, but most hard-core Texas fans would know that his historic season easily ranks as the No. 1 tackles for loss season in school history.
Did you know that only one other Texas player since 1975 (when they started recording TFL as an official state) has recorded more than 25 tackles for loss in a single season.
Can you name him? The answer is at the bottom of the column.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Yes, I still believe we're going to see football as scheduled, but everyone needs to start understanding that in order to pull it off, it's going to require being smart and not doing what a number of LSU players did, which is apparently catch it in a downtown bar district. Everyone is going to need to start being a little wiser as we head into July about how they manage their time away from sports.
(Sell) I wouldn't say that the ONLY way to salvage it is with the Brockermeyer brothers, but it might end up being the only realistic way. Oh, and yes, the current OL class isn't good enough, not when you're dealing with a historically good class.
(Buy) IF that happened. I have a hard time believing that we've seen the last down of football by Sam Ehlinger. He'd come back for a 2021 season if he had to.
(Sell) That kid ain't going anywhere IMO.
(Sell) I'm exactly where I was expecting to be. The month of June was always going to be a month that featured a high number of positive tests. Everyone is learning right now the things they can't go in about seven weekends from now. The news of this week with regards to positive tests needs to be a high water mark in that regard. Moving forward, we have to start pulling those numbers down, as we've seen in Europe with pro soccer.
(Sell) I need to see his group on the field before I can say something like that, but his recruiting has been very good so far.
(Sell) I just don't think we're headed there.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... Am I allowed to say that I don't really care what Major League Baseball does? Whatever I have been missing during the last three months, it doesn't feel like pro baseball ranks ahead of a lot of other things I've been missing. I'd rather be able to go back to the Draft House.
... Yes, I watched the UFC Fight Night on Saturday night. Yes, Dana White's constant card-making in the Rona has won my attention back over.
... Whenever Dak Prescott signs his long-term contract with the Cowboys, I have a feeling I'm going to feel exactly the way I did when Ryan Howard signed his big deal with the Phillies a decade ago, which is to say that I know the market will dictate a monster deal for him and I'm not begrudging him for getting his money, but I can't see it being a good thing for the club for as long as the deal is on the books.
... I miss watching Jordan Spieth be the baddest you know what in the world at his craft.
... The Premier League was back this weekend, but the ruthless play from my Reds was not. There was a lot to unpack in a very disjointed Merseyside Derby, but the bottom line is that there were times when it felt like the cheerleaders from the movie Wildcats should have been singing a modified version of You'll Never Walk Alone.
... I've come to really loathe Chelsea over the course of the last half-decade, but it was nice to see Christian Pulisic make a difference on Sunday.
No. 9 - The List: Most Underrated Movies of the Last 10 Years ...
I decided to copy an idea from the board this week.
My rules for qualifying as underrated is that it couldn't have been nominated for an Oscar for Best Picture. That's it. Anything else goes.
10. Contagion (2011)
9. Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
8. The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
7. Edge of Tomorrow (2014)
6. Blade Runner: 2049 (2017)
5. A Most Violent Year (2014)
4. The Master (2012)
3. Inside Out (2015)
2. Crazy, Stupid Love (2011)
1. The Town (2010)
No.10 - And finally...
The answer to the question in section 6?
Shaun Rogers had 27 tackles for loss in 1999.
Considering Casey Hampton (21 TFL), Aaron Humphrey (19 TFL) and Cedric Woodard (14 TFL) were also on that defensive line, is it possible that the 1999 Texas defensive line is the greatest position unit in school history that rarely gets discussed in those tones?
Sports only...
I am starting to get concerned about a legitimate season taking place. The irony is the one year in the last decade we have an above average OL and a top notch QB along with the potentially best freshman RB in the state. And, we may not get to play many games this season if kids start getting sick.
The drop off in sacks has to somewhat be because of more and more shotgun tempo offenses being implemented over the years.
I'm not generally a fan of Affleck, but The Town was great.
Also a big fan of The Accountant in which affleck plays an assassin on the autism spectrum. Can't wait for the sequel.
That movie is incredibly underrated. If you like John Wick type shows, The Accountant should definitely be up your alley. (The Accountant isn't nearly as far-fetched as JW either)
Also a big fan of The Accountant in which affleck plays an assassin on the autism spectrum. Can't wait for the sequel.
That movie is incredibly underrated. If you like John Wick type shows, The Accountant should definitely be up your alley. (The Accountant isn't nearly as far-fetched as JW either)
I do think a healthy Texas Oline has the talent and experience to be their best Oline since 2006. I don’t think there is enough talent for them to be elite on their own though. As y’all said on your podcast, Mike Yurcich is going to have the potential to have a huge effect on the entire offense.
Having a playcaller who schemes receivers open, and doesn’t run into stacked boxes or have predictable playcalling will make the Oline appear to be much better. LSU’s Oline was arguably the biggest weakness on their offense in 2018. Add Joe Brady and a year of experience and all of a sudden they win the Joe Moore award for best Oline in all of college football. Coaching and scheme matters for the Oline.
Having a playcaller who schemes receivers open, and doesn’t run into stacked boxes or have predictable playcalling will make the Oline appear to be much better. LSU’s Oline was arguably the biggest weakness on their offense in 2018. Add Joe Brady and a year of experience and all of a sudden they win the Joe Moore award for best Oline in all of college football. Coaching and scheme matters for the Oline.
Due Date I one of my favorites and I watch P,T and A every Thanksgiving. Just like PTA, the clahing personalities is a riot but the moments where they cut through the conflict to see eachothers humanity is incredibly touching and makes the movie. Youll love it!
I’ve seen The Town five times. Awesome film. Completely agree with Edge of Tomorrow. Have you seen The Gentlemen? It’s more recent.
Good read Ketch.
I can't believe I'm about to type what I'm about to type.
Yet, it's something that's been rolling around in my head for the last couple of weeks and it came to the forefront of my mind following this week's TicketCity Podcast.
You guys ready? Here goes ...
Is it possible that the 2020 Texas offensive line is underrated going into the season?
I say that as someone that has generally been a seller on Texas offensive lines going back to 2007, which is to say that I'm generally the most unlikely source of an emerging hype man for Herb Hand's group as anyone in this town. In fact, I'll be the first to admit that last year's offensive line was very serviceable in my mind, but certainly not a true-plus, which is concerning when you factor in the losses of departing 2019 seniors Zach Shackelford and Parker Braun.
Rather than focus on what Texas doesn't have available to it going into the season, I find myself focusing more on what Texas does have going into the season ... at least on paper.
Let's just talk about these positives.
* Fourth-year left tackle Sam Cosmi might not be the best offensive lineman in the Big 12, but there's not a better NFL prospect/blind-side protector in the league, which makes him one of the most important foundation pieces that any offensive line in the country will bring to the table this season.
* Senior right tackle/possible starting center Derek Kerstetter didn't make a single all-Big 12 team in 2019, but Pro Football Focus reports that he has the highest returning pass protection grade of any lineman in a power five program in the entire country.
* Sophomore guard Junior Angilau was a solid performer in his first season as a starter, but he's getting set to enter his third season on the 40 Acres and this is generally considered the ballpark of time when most linemen see their light switch truly flip on. When you consider that he was one of the best freshmen offensive linemen in the Big 12 a year ago, it's not a stretch at all to suggest that Texas has a potential force on its hands in Angilau.
Ok, let's just stop for a moment and make this observation - few teams in the nation have a better foundation trio of linemen on paper than the Longhorns. We're talking about a first-round pick at left tackle, a nationally elite of the elite senior pass protector opposite that first round pick and a third year returning interior piece that still has three seasons of plus-play in front of him.
When we spoke as a staff on the podcast this week, one of the debates that took place was whether this offensive line could actually be a dominant unit and help take some of the pressure off of Sam Ehlinger. Obviously, there are two others spots on the line and health is a major piece of this equation, but Texas hasn't had a trio of returning players as good as the three that it has on paper since 2006.
Now, let's talk about the other two pieces of the puzzle.
While Denzel Okafor has been a disappointment in his career at Texas thus far, the senior actually graded a smidge behind Shackelford last season in terms average game score per Alex Dunlap's Deep Dig rankings, so it's fair to wonder if a Kerstetter/Okafor combo can be better than a Kerstetter/Shackelford combo from a year ago.
That leaves replacing Parker Braun as the sole remaining task, which is a fascinating little talking point when you consider that he ranked second on the team in average grade per game among offensive linemen in Dunlap's rankings, but there were times when his negative plays could truly be negative and however good he was as a college player, we're not talking about an NFL-level physical talent.
If you're only as strong as your weakest link, the Longhorns have a potential problem here because that fifth starter is a bit of an uncompleted puzzle, especially with the Longhorns losing the benefit of spring workouts.
Obviously, the back end of this equation when regarding the strength of the line going into this season is a big enough question mark that it seems to be overshadowing the line’s strengths. Of course, injuries are a looming cloud, but I'd also contend that there aren't many offensive lines around the country that won't take a big dip if a couple of starters go out.
Ultimately, the question I have for the Longhorns up front is whether they can find a fifth starter at guard that can be solid enough that the improvements and strengths of the group prove to be much more impactful than anything that the turnover at left guard is going to create.
I'm not sure it's probable that this group turns the type of unit that makes people forget the 2005-06 units, but people might not have to wait long for the group's name to be called when ranking units post-2006.
This group can be the best line this program has seen in 14 years. That possibility alone might just make it underrated at this point.
No. 2 - The importance of Denzel Okafor ...
The combination of all the various b-a-n-a-n-a-s of 2020 has distracted us from a lot of things, but it's crazy to think how important Okafor is to the 2020 offensive blueprint and how close he came to leaving the program.
All these months later, it feels even clearer that losing Okafor as an option for this offensive line would have been really impactful, considering he's the only returner from the pool of back-ups from a year ago that is still available that has some productive play under his belt.
I feel like we know we're going to see "solid" play from Okafor in 2020 as a basement, which makes the wildcard spot on the line focused on one spot and not two.
That might not seem like a big deal, but when and if this team hits the field in August, it's going to need to figure out its best five in a hurry and experimentation will be something that will need to be delayed until 2021.
The situation feels so much more manageable with his presence in the program, which is kind of ironic when you consider that he's never quite managed to hit his ceiling as a player.
No. 3 - Most underrated sure-thing in the program?
It might just be junior place-kicker Cameron Dicker.
Although Dicker hasn't yet been a guy that you'd say has been an elite performer in his career, let me tell you what he has been.
* A game-winner against Oklahoma.
* 32 of 43 (74.4%) on all field goals in two years.
* Has the kind of leg strength to make a 57-yard kick.
* Knocks 63+ percent of his kickoffs into the touchback designation.
You add it all up and he might not be a headliner on the college football circuit, but he feels like the least of Tom Herman's concerns going into the season. Considering the importance of that third phase of the game, having your place-kicker represent one of the safest and most secure elements of the team is almost valuable enough to warrant calling him by his team.
#kickersnamesareimportant
No. 4 - Joseph Ossai Prop Bet ...
A season ago, junior defensive end Joseph Ossai recorded five sacks, with 60 percent of them coming in the final game of the season.
With everyone, including myself, expecting a monster season from Ossai, I'm asking the following question.
If I tell you that he's going to stay healthy all season long and I set his sack total this year at 10.5, are you taking the over or the under?
Keep in mind that since 2009, only Alex Okafor (12.5 in 2012) and Jackson Jeffcoat (13 in 2013) have posted double-digit sacks in the Texas program since 2009.
One side of my brain is telling me that the under is the smart play, but the other side of my brain is telling me that he might just surpass Jeffcoat's 2013 total if he stays healthy and plays in 14 games.
No. 5 - Stat of the Weekend ...
Since 1986, the Longhorns have had only eight different players record double-digit sack totals in a single season and nine have posted more than Jeffcoat's 13 in 2013. Yet, from 1975-1985, the Longhorns had eight different players post double-digit sack season, including five that surpassed Jeffcoat's 13 in 2013.
That means that zero of the school's top five all-time pass rushing seasons by sack totals have occurred in the last 38 years (kiki DeAyala had 22.5 in 1982)
Here's a look at the numbers post 1986:
13.0: Jackson Jeffcoat (2013)
12.5: Alex Okafor (2012)
11.5: Brian Orakpo (2008)
10.5: Tim Crowder (2006)
10.0: Sam Acho (2009)
10.0: Tony Brackens (1993)
10.0: Shane Dronett (1990)
10.0: Aaron Humphrey (1998 and 1999)
No. 6 - State of the Weekend (Part II) ...
Yes, Kiki DeAyala's 33 tackles for loss in 1982 is one of the freakiest defensive numbers I've ever seen posted by any defensive player in any season ever played, but most hard-core Texas fans would know that his historic season easily ranks as the No. 1 tackles for loss season in school history.
Did you know that only one other Texas player since 1975 (when they started recording TFL as an official state) has recorded more than 25 tackles for loss in a single season.
Can you name him? The answer is at the bottom of the column.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Yes, I still believe we're going to see football as scheduled, but everyone needs to start understanding that in order to pull it off, it's going to require being smart and not doing what a number of LSU players did, which is apparently catch it in a downtown bar district. Everyone is going to need to start being a little wiser as we head into July about how they manage their time away from sports.
(Sell) I wouldn't say that the ONLY way to salvage it is with the Brockermeyer brothers, but it might end up being the only realistic way. Oh, and yes, the current OL class isn't good enough, not when you're dealing with a historically good class.
(Buy) IF that happened. I have a hard time believing that we've seen the last down of football by Sam Ehlinger. He'd come back for a 2021 season if he had to.
(Sell) That kid ain't going anywhere IMO.
(Sell) I'm exactly where I was expecting to be. The month of June was always going to be a month that featured a high number of positive tests. Everyone is learning right now the things they can't go in about seven weekends from now. The news of this week with regards to positive tests needs to be a high water mark in that regard. Moving forward, we have to start pulling those numbers down, as we've seen in Europe with pro soccer.
(Sell) I need to see his group on the field before I can say something like that, but his recruiting has been very good so far.
(Sell) I just don't think we're headed there.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... Am I allowed to say that I don't really care what Major League Baseball does? Whatever I have been missing during the last three months, it doesn't feel like pro baseball ranks ahead of a lot of other things I've been missing. I'd rather be able to go back to the Draft House.
... Yes, I watched the UFC Fight Night on Saturday night. Yes, Dana White's constant card-making in the Rona has won my attention back over.
... Whenever Dak Prescott signs his long-term contract with the Cowboys, I have a feeling I'm going to feel exactly the way I did when Ryan Howard signed his big deal with the Phillies a decade ago, which is to say that I know the market will dictate a monster deal for him and I'm not begrudging him for getting his money, but I can't see it being a good thing for the club for as long as the deal is on the books.
... I miss watching Jordan Spieth be the baddest you know what in the world at his craft.
... The Premier League was back this weekend, but the ruthless play from my Reds was not. There was a lot to unpack in a very disjointed Merseyside Derby, but the bottom line is that there were times when it felt like the cheerleaders from the movie Wildcats should have been singing a modified version of You'll Never Walk Alone.
... I've come to really loathe Chelsea over the course of the last half-decade, but it was nice to see Christian Pulisic make a difference on Sunday.
No. 9 - The List: Most Underrated Movies of the Last 10 Years ...
I decided to copy an idea from the board this week.
My rules for qualifying as underrated is that it couldn't have been nominated for an Oscar for Best Picture. That's it. Anything else goes.
10. Contagion (2011)
9. Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
8. The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
7. Edge of Tomorrow (2014)
6. Blade Runner: 2049 (2017)
5. A Most Violent Year (2014)
4. The Master (2012)
3. Inside Out (2015)
2. Crazy, Stupid Love (2011)
1. The Town (2010)
No.10 - And finally...
The answer to the question in section 6?
Shaun Rogers had 27 tackles for loss in 1999.
Considering Casey Hampton (21 TFL), Aaron Humphrey (19 TFL) and Cedric Woodard (14 TFL) were also on that defensive line, is it possible that the 1999 Texas defensive line is the greatest position unit in school history that rarely gets discussed in those tones?
