It's 7:31 p.m. on Mother's Day evening and I don't have the slightest clue about what should be the lede of this week's column.
The clock is ticking.
Therefore, I'm going to take the shotgun approach to the column. I'm just going to randomly discuss a few of the things in my head as possible topics for the column.
Maybe I'll return to one of these in the coming weeks and explore the conversation a little more than tonight's rushed affair will allow, but in the name of pleasing all the moms in The Woodlands on Sunday I was responsible for, you get what you get this week.
The future of UT recruiting classes...
I had this as a topic of discussion about six months ago and I'm eager to return to it.
There seems to be a better than decent chance that the 25-man recruiting rule is about to go away for at least a couple of years if the NCAA Division I Council approves legislation at the end of the month, as some are hoping/expecting.
Should that occur, the only number that will mean anything going forward is the 85-man scholarship number. Every year, you can take as many prospects as you like as long as you're under the 85-man limit. With the Longhorns averaging double-digit departures every year in recruiting since... pretty much forever... the Longhorns should be in a position to take 25+ per year on an annual basis.
It probably means that you'll see more attrition like the movement leading up to May 1st, as a number of players that were still in the infancy stage of their development/careers were escorted to the portal by the staff.
So, the question that I get asked more than any other every year regarding how many recruits the Longhorns will be able to sign in any given year can just go away. The answer is as many as the staff wants to. If they want 25, they can almost certainly make way for 25. If they want 30... same. 35? It kind of depends on the year. You get the sense that Steve Sarkisian would have taken 40 if he could.
Inside of these large classes that should be expected moving forward pending the legislation, Sarkisian and his coaching staff will need to determine the future breakdown of each class in terms of the percentage of scholarships allocated to high school prospects and those reserved for transfers.
Full transparency - I'm all out of recruiting non-elite level high school prospects. I'm tired of playing the pretend game where we look at a national Top 250 prospect and make that guy really important. As the data from last week's NFL Draft displayed in pretty powerful and easy-to-understand ways, it's a total crapshoot beyond the Top 10-15 players in the state each year. The historical value of the No.25 player in the state is basically the same as the No.150 prospect in the state. With at least four out of five prospects failing to develop into plus-college players every single year, there's just too much guesswork involved.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns have improved the scope of the 2022 season with the immediate help that the Portal has provided. In a perfect world, we know that this team could use help at edge rusher, at least a couple of linebackers, another safety, and a special teamer or two. Hell, that doesn't even include any offensive linemen or the Jordan Addison dream.
I'm just painting the picture that this year's group of incoming players could have used at least a dozen transfers from the Portal and I don't think anyone would have blinked, especially if all of the guys coming in were proven commodities at the collegiate level (Isaiah Neyor and Jahleel Billingsley) or elite-level recruits looking for a better home (Quinn Ewers, Agiye Hall, and Ryan Watts).
Now, I know what you're thinking... "Ketch, what happens if you only sign five national Top 100 players. Are you just going to take 20 transfers?"
I'll admit that I don't have the perfect answer. You probably can't pass up on recruiting high school kids in the state of Texas.
Yet, there's no way to get away from the fact that you're hoping to hit a needle in a haystack in doing so. If we eliminate the confirmation bias and feelings, the data tell us that the overwhelming majority of high school prospects that Texas signed in the 2022 recruiting class will fail at levels that are 4X or 5X higher than those that will succeed.
Volunteering yourself into constant 80- to 90-percent failures situations seems like the kind of thing that we would never consistently go for, yet it's previously been the only pathway for college coaches. Not only do we go for them, but we romanticize them!
If I had to guess, I think you're going to see a lot of schools moving forward going at about a 50-50 split, which means something like a 13/12 split in a year when you take 25.
All I know is that the schools that can figure out the proper math in all of this will have a major advantage over those that don't adjust.
No. 2 - The importance of a future General Manager hire ...
Forgive me for continuing to beat this drum, but the sooner the Longhorns hire someone with real NFL front-office senior management experience, the better.
The person in this position needs to be able to do the following...
a. Manage the scouting department, which needs to spend as much time scouting college players as it does high school talent.
There's an alternative universe out there where Tulsa offensive lineman Tyler Smith isn't turning pro three years into his development and getting drafted in the first round. In this alternative universe, he comes back to college for a fourth season and in that universe, the Longhorns need to be able to identify him as a player that can immediately help them, whether they are in the Portal or not.
b. Manage relationships with agents/lawyers and the agent/lawyer underworld.
When NIL started last summer, few players had formal representation. Almost a year later, they all have lawyers, agents, and others that help as part of their NIL creative teams. Moving forward, hiring someone with experience in this field will be critical for countless reasons.
c. Managing the 85-man roster.
No offense to Sarkisian at all, but he wasn't hired for his roster management abilities. He was hired to be a head coach and create a bad-ass offense. Anyone that can upgrade the Texas football program in all of the important areas is something worth adding.
d. Scout/vet potential coaching hires.
Again, no offense to Sarkisian, who has built a very good staff, but if you can bring someone in that can make you stronger in important areas, having someone that is constantly keeping a "top 5" list of every coaching position in the program, so that when they are needed, you've got that Intel ready to go... that's a big win.
How high should a school aim when hiring a GM?
Well, how good do you want to be?
No. 3 - A look at the Scholarship Board ...
With all of the activity in the last few weeks, I figured an updated peek at things might be helpful.
No. 4 - A few Jordan Addison thoughts ...
In case I haven't yet made this blindly obvious... I'm all for this move.
Great teams are built around game-changing players and Texas just doesn't have enough of them right now. Period.
If the ghost of Walter Payton is in the Portal, I don't care if your running back room is loaded, you take him if you can.
In my mind, a Texas team that adds Addison to a wide receiver unit that is already arguably the best in the Big 12 because of the inarguable most talented team in the conference at the position.
At this point, the answers to the other positions you want to find aren't available in the Portal. Addison is. He'd show up and be the third-best player on the team at worst. Hell, he might show up and be the best player in the program.
Don't make it rocket science.
No. 5 - About Earl Thomas ...
In my estimation, Earl Thomas is probably in the top 5 of the best Longhorns football players of the modern era.
He should be finishing up an NFL career that would eventually see him wearing a gold jacket in Canton.
That's now what is happening. Instead, Thomas has a felony warrant out for his arrest, which completely destroyed his pro career to the point that he's going to have a hard time getting into the Hall of Fame without purchasing a ticket. From the outside looking in, things appear to be in shambles.
The details on this pending warrant are ugly.
"On April 18, police say Thomas texted the woman that he obtained two handguns earlier that day. Later, he texted, "Waiting on hand in foot is why I'll kick ur ass."
The next day, police say, Thomas texted, "I hope u in the car with him and the kids and yall drive off the road." That same day, police say he texted, "Ima let my momma and my cousins poison they (their children) ass."
It feels like a lot of help is needed. First, we need to make sure that his family has all the help they need and feel safe., especially the kids involved. Once that part of the equation is secure, I hope there's a way to help Thomas.
None of this is any of our business, but it doesn't feel like turning a blind eye because it's 1,000-percent uncomfortable doesn't feel like the right answer, either. I find myself really concerned for everyone.
No. 6 - All about Ivan ...
At this point in the season, I'm starting to only check the Texas baseball boxscores to see how Ivan Melendez is doing.
This weekend he smashed, finishing a three-game series with West Virginia by going 5 for 11 with a 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, and 3 walks.
It reminds me of when I used to check the Rice box scores in the 90s to see what Lance Berkman did from game to game.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Of course! Shout out to all the moms out there on Orangebloods. Thanks for putting up with us.
(Sell) Ewers starts and plays almost the entire game.
(Sell) It's certainly possible, but I'm going to need to see it before giving that kind of benefit of the doubt. It just hasn't been earned.
1) (Buy) McCoy had a 161 quarterback efficiency number in 2006 and that feels doable. Definitely 25% doable.
2) (Buy) I'm going out on a limb and saying that Ovie Oghoufo gets to five this year.
3) (Buy) Worthy + Addison + Neyor + Whittington = super salty.
(Buy) Makes total sense for them. Just sick back and take advantage of UT's departures. It's a pathway for an improved roster for them.
(Buy) Give me the Kool-Aid if Addison comes.
(Buy) That feels incredibly doable, even if I can't tell you who it will be (not including Ryan Watts).
(Sell) The same rule opened the door for the program to purge itself of enough bodies that it was able to get under the 85-man limit, while also adding the type of talent that could allow for the program to double its win total from last year. I suppose one person's chaos (yours) is another person's (Sarkisian) blessing.
(Buy) Yeah, I think so. Until 2023.
(Sell) He is the is a consummate team player. He also is chasing as much money as he can get, while he can get it. The two things are not mutually exclusive.
(Sell) I'm iffy on the answer, but you asked, so I'll give you an answer.
(Sell) It's been a number of years since I've been on the road and year after year, my rankings consistently outperform all of the services. There's so much more data and tools available these days than there once were. Also, unintentional confirmation bias' becomes very problematic when you make an effort to travel to see a kid. For instance, I saw Robert Griffin play in his senior year in the playoffs and he had a bad half. I convinced myself that nothing else mattered more than what I told myself I had seen in person and it created a blind spot in my evaluation of him. We're in a business where only a very few evaluations actually hit at high rates. Everyone has their own way of doing things, but I haven't found that it's truly hampering me.
(Sell) I think they'll find a good player or two, but it's hard to forecast something larger than that.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... Baker Mayfield has already seen his upside as a player. I'm not sure it gets better than what we've seen of him in Cleveland.
... Feels like we're headed for a Warriors/Bucks Finals.
... If it's at all possible, I still feel like Giannis is underrated.
... Suddenly, the Sixers/Heat and Mavs/Suns series' are the best of three affairs. I'm not sure that I would pick against the Heat or the Suns, but I like the chances of the Sixers and Mavericks winning on the road. We'll see.
... I'm trying to stay with the MLB season, but it's becoming a struggle. My Phillies just aren't any good.
... Sooooo... that whole light heavyweight deal for Canelo Alvarez.... not so bueno. Dmitry Bivol is not to be trifled with.
... For those that watched UFC274, just how bad was the Rose Namajunas fight?
... In a battle between Liverpool and Man City for the Premier League title, the Reds blinked first. It's a hell of a thing when you can basically run the table from the first week of January on and a draw in May will do a team in. Unreal standards.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Boss Songs ...
Let's debate. This will probably create some.
10. Born in the USA
9. Racing In The Street
8. Thunder Road
7. Backstreets
6. Darkness at The Edge of Town
5. Prove It All Night
4. The River
3. Adam Raised a Cain
2. Jungleland
1. Born To Run
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Just wanted to say it one more time. Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there.
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