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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (I still can't go higher than 7 wins...)

I think you are comparing Texas' talent to an Alabama-like program and not to the teams on the schedule.
I'm comparing it to what I've seen in the last six years.
 
Incorrect, @Ketchum has been overcompensating to pessimism since he got burned on his GG will be the next Joe Montana prediction.
I've basically been spot on in my Texas season predicting business every year since 2010 and in general, I think I've been within a game of being right in terms of won-loss record in 12 of the last 14 seasons.

Predicted a national title in 2005.
Predicted a national championship game in 2009.

Didn't see 2008 being the year that it was and missed on 2010.

One person's pessimism might be the rest of the world's reality. How have I been overcompensating if I have been right?
 
Well-said. A better question, is how many of the 12 opponents have better talent across the top 44 guys than we do. Sure, you can count Domer and OU. Who else beyond those 2 can you sincerely say have a stronger top 44 than Texas without a doubt?
Let's play rank the quarterbacks game. Slide Swoopes/Buechele in there with all 12 teams on the schedule.
 
Wins:
UTEP
Cal
KSU
Kansas
TT
WVU
ISU

Texas will win one or two from the following list:
ND
OU (beat last year)
OSU (should have beat last year)
Baylor (beat last year)
TCU

QB and OL are still a concern but everyone will agree are in better shape than last year. DL is only position that is weaker than last year.
You're giving a 5-7 team with line and quarterback issues a lot of unearned faith on the road.

There's zero reason to think that sweep both KSU and Tech.
 
Re. the heat factor: I am always hopeful that it will have a positive effect. Still, the hottest I''ve ever been at a game was the UCLA fiasco. Heat might have been a factor in that game, but to the extent that it WAS, it certainly wasn't a positive for the home team.
1994 Colorado.

It was 140 degrees on the field and I was standing on the sideline in a coat and tie.
 
Careful, you'll be labeled a hater or Herman fan boy for your realistic take.

Haha. Yeah well, I don't care about labels. I think by far the best thing for the University is for Charlie Strong to succeed. The players love him, he genuinely loves the players, and his core values and commitment to them is really something to be proud of, especially these days. I want Charlie to win....but he has to win, and I don't think being conservative at QB is going to do it.
 
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Serious question......If Swoopes becomes the back-up QB and we win 8 games, what will the "haters" choose to whine about next? I can't see much left to complain about. Too many juniors leaving from 2018 on?
you think 8 Ws is good for a top 5 salaried coach ?
Low standards you have there.
 
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I'm sure you talked to a high UT official or even a BMD, but I think it's doubtful the source speaks for the inner circle of BMDs who quietly drive athletic affairs. That group is private and has yet to give comments to any reporter about what they're thinking. There's no reason they would abruptly break silence prior to a season when much remains to be determined. These guys are shrewd, and would understand that issuing a comment about a minimum number of wins could (i) aid our competitors in recruiting, (ii) incite fan expectations, and (iii) restrict their ability to evaluate the program by more than one measure.

Any BMD insights on which conference we're eventually going to join when the Big 12 implodes?
 
you think 8 Ws is good for a top 5 salaried coach ?
Low standards you have there.
No I don't think eight wins is the standard. I asked what is there to whine about this year if Swoopes is the back-up and we win eight games. I would suggest that that means that we're on track for a really good year next year and that improvement was seen. So, for an expensive coach doing an extensive rebuild, I would think that would be satisfactory trajectory. I want 12-0 but I think that takes a complete program top to bottom. CS would be heading that way with an improvement to 8 wins this year.
 
I've pointed to the Cal game as a potential swing game all year. When did I disagree with you?

June 20th buy/sell:

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/threads/ketchs-10-thoughts-from-the-weekend.219120/

BUY or SELL: The Cal game is the most important game on the schedule before the season starts?

(Sell)
5shy2B.gif
 
No I don't think eight wins is the standard. I asked what is there to whine about this year if Swoopes is the back-up and we win eight games. I would suggest that that means that we're on track for a really good year next year and that improvement was seen. So, for an expensive coach doing an extensive rebuild, I would think that would be satisfactory trajectory. I want 12-0 but I think that takes a complete program top to bottom. CS would be heading that way with an improvement to 8 wins this year.
Barely ( showing improvement)........he then would have one year of on field improvement going into his fourth year....all while being paid as if he were a top 5 coach.
The re build was never THAT extensive.
 
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I think they were more alike than different. CS chose to run off his upperclass players; not saying that was the wrong thing to do, he just handled it differently than the Meyer or Harbaugh.

LOL...you seriously want to compare the talent at OS to Texas? And CS chose to run off players in the same way that Kelly ran off his players at ND the other day. They ran themselves off. That they did demonstrates the character defects that existed in the program before CS ever took over.
 
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The re build was never THAT extensive.

Yes it was. Totally new culture. Staff issues. Player turnover. AD change. 2 good recruiting classes while playing poorly due to talent issues. CS has done an extensive rebuild. He is a top tier coach in the middle of a huge project under intense scrutiny. I am really proud of him and hope for long term success enough to offset the early years.
 
what other options was RU defending that afternoon? - i'm pretty sure they knew we were running the ball and were lined up to defend it so I'd say yes, it was a good afternoon of running the ball considering RU gave very little thought to our passing attack. Go look at the tape, all 11 RU defenders are within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage on most every snap.
The bottom line is that there wasn't really a moment in that game when he looked next-level and that was against Baylor's run defense.

You brought that game up, not anyone else. The truth is that we still don't really know with him.
 
Texas loses to Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, TCU and one of either Kansas State/Texas Tech.

Those are the ones on my list; but until CS shows he can win on the road, I'd put Cal in the mix, especially if they struggle against ND and can't overwhelm UTEP. Winning allows confidence to grow - losing or not performing to expectations sucks the positivity right out of you. Tough schedule out of the box. On the other hand...

Hook 'em!!!
WE're on the same page.
 
Yes it was. Totally new culture. Staff issues. Player turnover. AD change. 2 good recruiting classes while playing poorly due to talent issues. CS has done an extensive rebuild. He is a top tier coach in the middle of a huge project under intense scrutiny. I am really proud of him and hope for long term success enough to offset the early years.
Three of the four reasons you cite were Charlie's own doing/ He controlled all those issues except for the AD change ( and ironically SP was a HUGE one of the reasons CS was hired....UT wanted to make a statement. ).
I just respectfully disagree.
We will see how it plays out.
 
I will grant you that it is easy to say while sitting in the comfort of my office chair, but given what I have seen from Swoopes, and what the reports were (and some still are) saying in regards to Shane being able to sustain drives better, I would take a shot with Shane and only use Swoopes in the 18 wheeler or in spurts if Shane gets rattled. I play to win, not "not to lose". Hell Charlie even said if they are tied he would go with the younger player with upside. I am not sure he really believes that in most circumstances. (Tim Cole, Jonathon Gray, Haines, and apparently Swoopes).

Thanks for answering though Ketch. I appreciate it.
we're not in any sort of disagreement.
 
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Ketch - do you think the calculus changes for Strong if we go 7-5 and have a good defense but lose games 14-6 with sucky quarterback play?
I think those in charge want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Show improvement/don't embarrass anyone = fourth year for sure IMO
 
i'm sure lots of backs would have gone for 2 bills facing a defense that regularly lined up 11 men within 7 yards of the LOS - lulz indeed
special backs tend to be special, at least on a few occasions in a game, regardless of the competition at this level.
 
I think those in charge want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Show improvement/don't embarrass anyone = fourth year for sure IMO

If any school's leadership could move the goal posts after another embarrassment, it's UT.
 
I read somewhere Coach Strong wanted to play the ND game in the afternoon, but he was shot down by the athletic department. Too bad we can't use our full home field advantage! Might as well take advantage of the Texas heat☀️☀️
 
Haha. Yeah well, I don't care about labels. I think by far the best thing for the University is for Charlie Strong to succeed. The players love him, he genuinely loves the players, and his core values and commitment to them is really something to be proud of, especially these days. I want Charlie to win....but he has to win, and I don't think being conservative at QB is going to do it.

I enjoy your posting and agree with the above sentiments. We just have to have demonstrable improvement this year and 7 wins are not enough.
 
special backs tend to be special, at least on a few occasions in a game, regardless of the competition at this level.
Leonard Fournette 19-31 against Bama, 19-91 against Arkansas and followed that up with 25-108 against Ole Miss...Longest run was 32 yards in those 3 game....is that special? I'm not saying he is Fournette, but this "special moment" stuff is BS.
 
LOL...you seriously want to compare the talent at OS to Texas? And CS chose to run off players in the same way that Kelly ran off his players at ND the other day. They ran themselves off. That they did demonstrates the character defects that existed in the program before CS ever took over.
He had Braxton Miller but Miller and Carlos Hyde were basically their offense. Other than that, OUS has three seniors drafted the next spring in the 2nd, 4th and 7th round. We had Brown, Hicks, Diggs and Thompson on D. It may not have been Charlie's fault he didn't inherit a QB but it darn sure is that we don't have one going in to 2016.

At the end of the day, I'm not arguing that Strong had a lot of talent off the bat to work with or as good as Meyer's, but that his coaching hasn't helped the W-L column and you're giving him a pass.
 
Three of the four reasons you cite were Charlie's own doing/ He controlled all those issues except for the AD change ( and ironically SP was a HUGE one of the reasons CS was hired....UT wanted to make a statement. ).
I just respectfully disagree.
We will see how it plays out.
But that's my point! He was paid $5M to change culture, boot kids out if needed, recruit better talent and hire quality coaches. Some kids and coaches may not have worked out initially, but that doesn't mean we aren't moving forward at a satisfactory rate. It is on CS and he is doing what he needs to do!
 
I read somewhere Coach Strong wanted to play the ND game in the afternoon, but he was shot down by the athletic department. Too bad we can't use our full home field advantage! Might as well take advantage of the Texas heat☀️☀️
can't turn down Sunday night prime time with zero competition.
 
Leonard Fournette 19-31 against Bama, 19-91 against Arkansas and followed that up with 25-108 against Ole Miss...Longest run was 32 yards in those 3 game....is that special? I'm not saying he is Fournette, but this "special moment" stuff is BS.
a. I would bet there were moments in those performances where he flashed once or twice in a special way.

b. Warren has zero sample size outside of the Tech game. Tech literally has the worst run defense I've seen in a while.
 
He had Braxton Miller but Miller and Carlos Hyde were basically their offense. Other than that, OUS has three seniors drafted the next spring in the 2nd, 4th and 7th round. We had Brown, Hicks, Diggs and Thompson on D. It may not have been Charlie's fault he didn't inherit a QB but it darn sure is that we don't have one going in to 2016.

At the end of the day, I'm not arguing that Strong had a lot of talent off the bat to work with or as good as Meyer's, but that his coaching hasn't helped the W-L column and you're giving him a pass.

Trying to be objective is not the same thing as giving him a pass. Sorry if you can't see the difference.
 
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