With two weeks to go until the start of season No. 3 of the Charlie Strong Era in Austin, I still don’t know what to make of the 2016 Longhorns.
I don’t know what to make of the expectations for this group or the schedule that awaits it or the abilities/strengths/weakness of a new set of coaches or whether the old coaches have learned any new tricks.
When I hear folks talking about this team winning nine or 10 games, I typically have the same reaction as Charlie Strong, as I’m kind of taken aback and left doing a double-take to the person bringing it up.
Don’t get me wrong, there are aspects of this year’s team that I really like. As someone that has been covering this program on a professional level every year since 1994, I think the running backs and wide receiver units have as much raw talent as just about any Texas team in the last two decades. When I look at the defensive backs, I see a young group that reminds me of the Michael Huff, Cedric Griffin, Michael Griffin, Tarell Brown and Aaron Ross fivesome that was comprised over the course of the 2001-03 recruiting classes.
I remember having lunch with Cedric Griffin at Bert’s BBQ back in 2002 when he was so excited to be competing for a chance to get on the field that the idea of eventually earning a pension playing in the NFL seemed like a galaxy away. His talent might have oozed all over the field, but there was a learning curve at the high college level that he and his comrades just hadn’t conquered yet. When it happened, the best secondary in the history of the school emerged to help lead the team to a national title, but it took time.
Remember Cedric’s missed/give-up tackle in the Oklahoma game that remained a bit of a scarlet level for him until he blasted the Ohio State tight end in the back of the end zone to save a touchdown and possibly the game in Columbus?
That cringe-inducing play against Oklahoma was part of the learning curve and this 5-7 team from a year ago that is full of precocious talent and lacking of both upper-class leadership and ability must climb that steep learning curve hill.
In doing so, it’s taking on a schedule that features five ranked teams on the just-released AP Top 25 (No. 3, No. 10, No. 13, No. 21 and No. 23) and a couple other games that loom a little more dangerous than Ames did at this time a year ago. Texas has a quarterback situation that remains unproven and somewhat unsettled and lines on both sides of the ball that possess question marks (plural, not singular).
For pretty much the last nine months, I’ve straddled the 7.5 over/under for wins, sometimes leaning towards eight, but more times than not going the other way. At this exact moment, I just don’t know.
That’s not me being wishy-washy, it’s me keeping it real. Yes, the program is dripping wet with young talent, but as I’ve been saying for all of 2016, I believe 2017 is the season when this program takes the first really big step under Charlie Strong.
That’s not me kicking the can down the road, it’s me being realistic. The quarterback situation should be significantly more stable with Shane Buechele entering his sophomore season, the lines on both sides of the ball should be better and the new coaches will be in year two. Hell, by the end of the year, this outfit might be hell to handle for anyone on the schedule in November and December.
At this very moment, I’m sticking with seven wins. If I knew the quarterback position would be a true plus, I’d definitely be on the other side of the 7.5 wins fence, but we don’t know a damn thing other than to believe it’s a true-plus requires a closed-eyes leap of faith and my eyes remain open.
No. 2– Notre Dame taking Texas from granted?
While you were probably sleeping on Friday night, seven-percent of the Notre Dame scholarship football roster was arrested in two separate incidents.
Seven percent.
Even the early years of the Kevin Sumlin Era in College Station blush at the number.
Suddenly, senior starting safety Max Redfield is gone from the program, while starting senior cornerback Devin Butler is indefinitely suspended and almost certain to miss the opener in Austin. For a team ranked No. 10 in the nation, this is a huge deal from a talent standpoint and if the Longhorns attempt to attack the Irish through the air, they're going to likely find far more inviting results than I’d have projected a mere three days ago.
In addition to the talent loss, I think it’s fair to ask if the Irish are taking a team they throttled a year ago lightly?
When a team has six players arrested in a single night two weeks away from its opening game, its collective attention span would appear to be pretty far from football. Hell, I’d bet a hundred dollars giving odds that the last thing Brian Kelly told his team that day was to stay out of trouble and not lose sight of what is in front of it.
For months, I’ve thought that the game against the Irish represents the easiest of the three game stretch that also includes both Oklahoma schools in the first five games on the schedule. More than ever, this thought would appear to be true. It’s likely to be a little warm in Austin two Sundays from now and Charlie Strong’s team has the Eye of the Tiger look more so than the boys from South Bend.
Yes, the Irish will have potentially a big advantage at quarterback, but this is a game ripe for the taking if the Longhorns can take it.
No. 3– Speaking of the weather for September 4th...
According to Accuweather.com, the high on September 4 is expected to be 91 degrees (with a heat index of 100 degrees), with a low of 69 degrees and winds that could top out at 15-18 mph.
For those wondering, that's about three degrees lower than the norm in Austin on that date, although back in 2000 there was a high of 108.
Five days later, the Longhorns opened the season against La-Lafayette with the temps hovering around 97 degrees.
For those of you going to the game, would you take one for the team and allow for it to be nearly 97 degrees if you knew that it would have an impact on the Irish over the course of four quarters or would you take your chances with a nice night and some wind to boot?
No. 4 – ICYMI ...
Here’s a look at all of the Orangebloods football content from the last week in the event you missed anything from the last week.
Monday, August 8th (Day 9)
Updated Depth Chart Projections
Erick Fowler is officially in
Insider Nugget’s From Monday’s Practice
Tuesday, August 9th (Day 10)
Highlights from Texas kicker Trent Domingue's media availability
Wednesday, August 10th (Day 11)
War Room: Another OL injury
War Room: Quick note about the battle between Tyrone Swoopes and Shane Buechele
Pros and Cons of the Quarterback candidates
Thursday, August 11th (Day 12)
Insider Nuggets from Thursday’s Practice
Thursday's Weekly War Room
War Room Nugget
Orangebloods Chat
Friday, August 12th (Day 13)
War Room Extra: Two players who have stood out during fall practice
Saturday, August 13th (Day 14)
Scrimmage Notes
Charlie Strong knows who the starter at quarterback will be, he’s just not telling
Erick Fowler at Inside Linebacker?
Sunday, August 14th (Day 15)
Anwar's Sunday Pulpit
No. 5– Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… A high-level source that would know a thing or two about the athletic department’s thinking of Charlie Strong’s job status beyond 2016 mentioned to me last week that eight wins is the number Strong should be aiming for. That’s not to say he would be out with a 7-5 record, but 8-4 would make everyone feel much better than 7-5.
… Game installation begins this week, which means that the time to win a job from an established starter is probably over, at least going into the opener?
… Prediction: If he stays healthy, D’Onte Foreman will rush for more 500 more yards this season than Chris Warren.
... Jerrod Heard saved his Texas career because he had the guts to walk up to Charlie Strong and lobby for a position change that the coaches were a little leery. Better to speak your mind and leave no regrets than to be silent and live with regret forever. I'm really rooting for Heard this season.
... Anyone else notice that Charlie Strong seems high on his veteran defensive tackles, but hasn't so much as said a word about any of his pass rushers for the most part? It's a problem in my eyes of Chris Nelson is getting more camp love than Bryce Cottrell, Naashon Hughes or just about anyone else playing defensive tackle.
... Prediction: Brandon Jones will be playing a lot at safety by October 1st.
No. 6 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: Texas is ranked in the top 15 in 2017 preseason polls?
(Buy) With almost 60 sophomores and freshmen on the way to being almost 60 juniors and sophomores in a year from now, I expect the 2017 Longhorns to be a trendy pre-season team.
BUY or SELL: Tyrone Swoopes takes more snaps at QB week 1 than Shane Buechele does?
(Buy) It might be close, but I think he’ll bag enough plays in the first half to give him a chance to take a lead that won’t be caught.
BUY or SELL: Tyrone Swoopes finishes the game against ND?
(Sell) Swoopes is going to have to earn my trust and it can’t be earned ahead of this game.
BUY or SELL: The real reason for the 180 on the QB reports from various sources is because Strong is about to play it conservative instead of going with the QB that has actually been performing better?
(Sell) I buy the part about Strong going into this game on the conservative note, but I don’t believe either quarterback has played well enough to suggest Strong would be ignoring his best player in the name of conservativeness. I think if you’re quarterback play is mostly middling, you’d probably lean towards conservativeness as well.
BUY or SELL: No matter who starts, OB mods will say they were right. If Shane starts, 'we told y'all he should, he's the better option.' If Swoopes starts, 'we told y'all, he is battle tested and he ran away with it.' Well played OB, well played.
(Sell) Not a single OB mod has suggested that Tyrone Swoopes should start because he’s the better option. It’s unanimous among the entire Orangebloods staff that the Longhorns should go with Shane Buechele. Personally, I don’t believe either option stands out from the other, which means you either lean towards the older guy because he does have experience or you lean to the younger guy because he doesn’t have
this older guy’s experience. But, these are all opinions. What isn’t our staff’s opinion is the reporting we’ve done, which has high-level sources reporting that Strong is leaning towards starting Swoopes. The only thing that anyone will remember is whether our reporting is right. Rarely is there a scoreboard kept on opinions.
BUY or SELL: Malik leads the nation in sacks this season? A Longhorn will be in the Heisman race by the end of the season? Jerrod Heard is the shocking star of the Notre Dame game with 150 + yards receiving and 2 touchdowns?
(Sell, sell and sell) Are you people taking crazy pills?
BUY or SELL: Kirk Johnson gets the change of pace back job?
(Buy) If he stays healthy, he’s going to have a big role this season on offense.
BUY or SELL: One of the top 5 things Mack Brown did post 2009 was burn Tyrone Swoopes redshirt on a late lightning delayed night in Fort Worth, so we don't have to hear about BS reports on how great Swoopes is in practice after this year?
(Sell) That’s hard-core, man. Let me also add that no one has ever reported that Swoopes has been great in practice over the last three years, just that he’s been better than his competition in a lot of instances. This idea that people are saying he’s been great (even our sources saying he will start) have never used that word) is reaching urban legend status. Therefore, I’d say you really haven’t received any BS reports, you’re just frustrated because no one else has been great and taken the damn job from him.
BUY or SELL: The Texas offensive line is now established enough where we can win games because of them, not in spite of them?
(Sell): We don’t know that this group is ready to be the reason Texas wins games. Not. At. All.
BUY or SELL: Dak Prescott will start at least 3 games for the Cowboys this season?
(Buy) There’s no way Tony Romo stay healthy for 13+ games this season.
No. 7 – Golden Era of Longhorns …
If the University of Texas happened to be its own nation, its 10 gold medals in the 2016 Summer Olympics would have ranked seventh, two behind Japan, the same number as France and two more than Italy, Australia and The Netherlands.
Other than the 11 gold medals won by Longhorns in the 2004 games in Athens, the school has never produced a better group of Olympians.
From Michelle Carter to Kevin Durant to Joseph Schooling to Ryan Crouser and everyone in between, it was hard not to notice a Longhorn doing something special in Brazil. Hell, there was even a burnt orange tint to the massive Lochte-Gate scandal that dominated the last week of discussion. It wasn’t a Sooner that paid that $10,800 fine, it was a Longhorn.
What starts here, changes the world, indeed.
No. 8 – Watch out Carmelo, KD is coming for your record …
Say what you want about Kevin Durant’s decision to sign with Golden State, but it seemed pretty clear to these eyes that he was the definitive star on this year’s 2016 men’s Olympic basketball team and when the stakes were the highest, he was at his best.
For the second straight Olympics, Durant scored 30 points in the gold medal game and led his country to the top medal stand to hear his nation’s anthem. Assuming that his health holds, he’s probably six quarters away from taking over Carmelo Anthony’s record for most career Olympics points by an American and by the time the 2020 Games are complete, he might leave that record in a place that will be very difficult to touch.
With two golds and numbers galore, all that remains for him to win is an NBA Championship and his Hall of Fame resume will be complete.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
.... Randomness from Rio:
a. Man, I’m going to miss Usain Bolt if he’s not back on a track in 2020. There’s just never been anyone quite like him.
b. I dig the Mongolian wrestling coaches.
c. America pretty much boat-raced the rest of the world in the overall medal count, including a 46-19 gold medal edge and a 121-56 overall medal edge vs. Russia. You’re damn right, I still count those. Take that, Putin.
d. The ratings might have been down this year, but this was a pretty spectacular Olympics with a ton of all-time greatness up and down the participant list. I give the last two weeks a full five stars.
e. The men’s volleyball team halfway made up for its collapse in the semifinals with its comeback win over Russia for the bronze. Take that, Putin.
f. My favorite thing about Clarrisa Shields isn’t her back to back gold medals, it’s the fact that she views herself as one of the greatest boxers of all-time. You go, girl.
… Conor McGregor’s legend grew a little bit on Saturday night, but so did Nate Diaz. Give is Part III of this maniacal feud and give it to us before the end of the year.
… I never thought we’d see Cormier/Rumble II before we’d see Cormier/Bones II.
… Ok, I’m ready to break out the anointing oil for Dak Prescott.
… The Texans got themselves a player in Will Fuller.
… If Malcolm Brown doesn’t win a job in Los Angeles, he’ll have a job somewhere. He’s a better pro right now than he ever was a college player.
… Come on, Liverpool. Be better.
... Everyone in the MLS needs to watch the hell out for the Sounders. That's a team that is surging.
No. 10 - And finally …
I found myself watching
Good Morning, Vietnam on Sunday while writing this column and it remains one of the best underrated movies of all-time in my mind.
Not only is Robin Williams at the top of his comedic game, but the movie has so much heart to it. The scene where he’s on the verge of quitting, but runs into dozens of U.S. troops on their way to a very dangerous place gets me every time.
It’s hard to say that the Oscars got it wrong by giving Michael Douglas the Oscar for Best Actor because his role in Wall Street became one of the true iconic roles of the decade, but scene for scene, Williams was right there with him at the very least.
Oh, and the soundtrack is a top-fiver.
