Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (I still can't go higher than 7 wins...)

[RLong68]

completely fair.

Somewhat fair. I think we all know that Meyer didn't exactly walk into a desert of a roster. And Harbaugh also inherited a solid roster particularly amongst the upperclassmen. But yes, it's time to show marked improvement in '16 with the program setting the table for a big '17.

 

[Craben]

The only thing I have to say on that is that for as much as everyone, myself included, supports his approach to discipline and representing the University well, the on field performance has been below a standard. That's understandable to a point - but past that point, you have to hold the guy up against the standard and evaluate objectively. For me - and everyone has their own opinion on this - we're at that point this year. There are too many other programs turning water into wine to continue to accept the slow roll on the path back to being a premier program. I do agree with Ketchum however that the University is not in a good position to make a change after this year if needed. I'd be open to an argument that that is by design.

Few of the programs that you think turned water into wine had the majority of their scholarship roster consisting of freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophmores. Few of them had 73% of their starters with 0-2 college seasons. Texas isn't just young, it's abnormally young. That youth is going to flash at times, but it's also going to be inconsistent and make mistakes that cost games.

As excited as we all are to see this young team, 2017 is the reasonable year for higher expectations.

 

[RLong68]

Texas loses to Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, TCU and one of either Kansas State/Texas Tech.

You've been overselling Okie Lite all offseason. I also don't believe we lose to TCU.

 

[Reverent Horn]

So Ketch, according to your source, CS needs 7-8 to return in 2017, but you think 7 is the upper limit. (Vegas and other betting sites have us around 7 as well.) Will CS still be here in 2017?

 

[FrancoBevo]

I'll assume Ketch is somewhat optimistic about the team he has covered for almost two decades. Ketch thinks 7 wins, then I have to assume with the rose colored glasses removed, this is a 4 to 6 win team.
I really hope Ketch is sandbagging.

Incorrect, @Ketchum has been overcompensating to pessimism since he got burned on his GG will be the next Joe Montana prediction.

 

[ball911]

No - the opposite - and I am wondering why that is.

Gotcha. IMO, both of those programs had way more overall talent than Texas did when Strong took over....especially OS. And Hoke actually recruited very well at Michigan, though the QB position was a bit of a mess when Harbaugh took over.

 

[jspirohorn]

You believe those situations were even remotely similar to Texas?

I think they were more alike than different. CS chose to run off his upperclass players; not saying that was the wrong thing to do, he just handled it differently than the Meyer or Harbaugh.

 

[Roto Flats]

The last rough patch at the QB situation, Swoopes graduates and incomes Ehrlinger. Buechele , Ehrlinger and Heard maybe? That is unless K Lockley has anything to say about it.

 

[TexCwby]

The Cal game determines the season, in my opinion. Been saying for over a month, and even asked Ketch about in his buy/sell, but he disagreed with me.

Lose to Cal, and we are staring 1-4 in the face, assuming a ND loss.

Beat Cal, and 8 wins is achievable, barring an unforeseen embarrassment like ISU last year.

If we are 1-4 after ou, it's over.

I see ND, OU, TCU as likely losses. I see TT and OSU on the road as likely losses too, but with a better chance of winning. If you lose to Cal, and lose ND, OU, TCU, TT, and OSU, you are at 6-6. That's also with KState on the road and WVU at home that are not gimmees.

I only see three certain wins on the schedule starting the season: UTEP, KU, and ISU.

With some early injuries to our o-line, a freshman center (if healthy), young o-line in general, a freshman qb or shaky sr qb, I don't think we can assume the benefit of the doubt in any of the coin-flip games yet.

 

[FrancoBevo]

Nothing outside of the Tech game from a year ago suggests this to be true.

other than the 100+ yards he put on Baylor a short week later but yea, nothing to see - lulz

 

[longhornms]

Perhaps but baring major injuries or just a total collapse as a program it's hard to fathom Texas not being any better this year. The talent level alone suggests that. 6-6 after last year with a better roster going into this year would be an epic failure and likely mean this team fell apart internally as well. Baylor is going to be a mess more than pick up where they left off and it's in Austin. Texas is due against OSU after the shaft job last year and they clearly played well with them. We already know Charlie can and has beaten OU.

It's not impossible I guess but I don't think many would expect it

Anything less than 8-4 will be a disappoint to me. Baylor should now definitely be a win with all of their issues. We're giving the Big12 way to much respect-it's not that tough if you're really a top 20 team. Really tough opener with ND. If we can win it, this season could be way better. I don't think we beat ND but they have issues now as well.

 

[jttexas05]

The Cal game determines the season, in my opinion. Been saying for over a month, and even asked Ketch about in his buy/sell, but he disagreed with me.

Lose to Cal, and we are staring 1-4 in the face, assuming a ND loss.

Beat Cal, and 8 wins is achievable, barring an unforeseen embarrassment like ISU last year.

If we are 1-4 after ou, it's over.

I'm pretty much with you here.

Based on the internal drama we saw last year leading up to OU, I don't see how Charlie could overcome the momentum of change in that scenario.

 

[Flash1978]

other than the 100+ yards he put on Baylor a short week later but yea, nothing to see - lulz

106 yards on 28 carries (3.8 ypc) is nothing to write home about.

 

[MB-HORNS]

I was told that he better not get embarrassed in the opener.

So what if that happens and he finishes 8-4? He is back...

 

[CS]

You believe this about the QB, OL and DL?

I think you are comparing Texas' talent to an Alabama-like program and not to the teams on the schedule.

 

[Ketchum]

7-5 would be very disappointing, but it could happen quickly.

I agree with another poster who said Cal could be the linchpin game.

History is on our side in Stillwater, but I don't want to go into that game 1-2.

I think Texas fans are underestimating OSU in Stillwater.

 

[RLong68]

I think you are comparing Texas' talent to an Alabama-like program and not to the teams on the schedule.

Well-said. A better question, is how many of the 12 opponents have better talent across the top 44 guys than we do. Sure, you can count Domer and OU. Who else beyond those 2 can you sincerely say have a stronger top 44 than Texas without a doubt?

 

[GGFisher]

Give me the eight wins. Perhaps you are right. The three major areas of concern are areas of concern you'd rather not have, if you could choose. QB, OL and DL.

Wins:
UTEP
Cal
KSU
Kansas
TT
WVU
ISU

Texas will win one or two from the following list:
ND
OU (beat last year)
OSU (should have beat last year)
Baylor (beat last year)
TCU

QB and OL are still a concern but everyone will agree are in better shape than last year. DL is only position that is weaker than last year.

 

[slothrop]

Re. the heat factor: I am always hopeful that it will have a positive effect. Still, the hottest I''ve ever been at a game was the UCLA fiasco. Heat might have been a factor in that game, but to the extent that it WAS, it certainly wasn't a positive for the home team.

 

[kerklein2]

I'm not sure the heat gives us much advantage anymore. Most of fall camp has been in cool, wet conditions.

 

[trophies2]

It's on cable this month.

I'll definitely check it out.

 

[Type O]

Maybe leave the posting thing for everyone else.

In my best old Batman TV program font...BAM! POW! YIKES!

 

[65HornInTacoma]

I was looking at 8 wins when I thought Strong was going to run with Shane. Now that it appears (to me anyway) that Strong is going to go conservative and plans on giving Swoopes the bulk of the plays starting out, I am back down to 6 or 7.

 

[FrancoBevo]

106 yards on 28 carries (3.8 ypc) is nothing to write home about.

what other options was RU defending that afternoon? - i'm pretty sure they knew we were running the ball and were lined up to defend it so I'd say yes, it was a good afternoon of running the ball considering RU gave very little thought to our passing attack. Go look at the tape, all 11 RU defenders are within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage on most every snap.

 

[Gus McCrea]

pest-optimistic

New OB'ism?

GM

 

[Reverent Horn]

I was looking at 8 wins when I thought Strong was going to run with Shane. Now that it appears (to me anyway) that Strong is going to go conservative and plans on giving Swoopes the bulk of the plays starting out, I am back down to 6 or 7.

Careful, you'll be labeled a hater or Herman fan boy for your realistic take.

 

[BRHornz]

Texas loses to Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, TCU and one of either Kansas State/Texas Tech.

Those are the ones on my list; but until CS shows he can win on the road, I'd put Cal in the mix, especially if they struggle against ND and can't overwhelm UTEP. Winning allows confidence to grow - losing or not performing to expectations sucks the positivity right out of you. Tough schedule out of the box. On the other hand...

Hook 'em!!!

 

[LnghrnObsrvtry]

Some of those Buy/Sell questions were brutal. You should put the handle of the person who asked the questions next time @Ketchum

 

[65HornInTacoma]

BUY or SELL: The real reason for the 180 on the QB reports from various sources is because Strong is about to play it conservative instead of going with the QB that has actually been performing better?

(Sell) I buy the part about Strong going into this game on the conservative note, but I don’t believe either quarterback has played well enough to suggest Strong would be ignoring his best player in the name of conservativeness. I think if you’re quarterback play is mostly middling, you’d probably lean towards conservativeness as well.

I will grant you that it is easy to say while sitting in the comfort of my office chair, but given what I have seen from Swoopes, and what the reports were (and some still are) saying in regards to Shane being able to sustain drives better, I would take a shot with Shane and only use Swoopes in the 18 wheeler or in spurts if Shane gets rattled. I play to win, not "not to lose". Hell Charlie even said if they are tied he would go with the younger player with upside. I am not sure he really believes that in most circumstances. (Tim Cole, Jonathon Gray, Haines, and apparently Swoopes).

Thanks for answering though Ketch. I appreciate it.

 

[Ketchum]

Serious question......If Swoopes becomes the back-up QB and we win 8 games, what will the "haters" choose to whine about next? I can't see much left to complain about. Too many juniors leaving from 2018 on?

Do you not remember the complaints about style points in 2009?

 

[Ketchum]

Ivan Maisel seems to think it's Shane... "It barely qualifies as news that Texas and Georgia, two of the elite programs in the game, appear as if they will start true freshman quarterbacks Shane Buechele and Jacob Eason, respectively."

http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...h-movement-story-2016-college-football-season

Yeah, I wouldn't read anything into that.

 

[Ketchum]

I still think that the success of this team this year will come down to our defense. If teams can line up and run it down our throat like they did at the end of last year and win the time of possession, then it will be a long season. 6-6. If our defense can stop the run, then I think we have a chance to do pretty well. We will know in 2 weeks if our defense was able to stop Notre Dame's offense.

The defensive line is a major concern.

 

[Ketchum]

Somewhat fair. I think we all know that Meyer didn't exactly walk into a desert of a roster. And Harbaugh also inherited a solid roster particularly amongst the upperclassmen. But yes, it's time to show marked improvement in '16 with the program setting the table for a big '17.

Mack won eight games in his last year. It's year three and seven or eight is a quality season given the context of the last two season.

Charlie has had to do a rebuild, but he's doing it on training wheels.

 

[Ketchum]

You've been overselling Okie Lite all offseason. I also don't believe we lose to TCU.

a. I think it's a completely different game this year in Stillwater, vs. last year. I don't trust a Charlie Strong team on the road with questions at quarterback.

b. Texas could lose by 30 to TCU and it would be a step of improvement. Sure as hell can't give them that game.

 

[Ketchum]

So Ketch, according to your source, CS needs 7-8 to return in 2017, but you think 7 is the upper limit. (Vegas and other betting sites have us around 7 as well.) Will CS still be here in 2017?

Yes.