Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Ignore my narcissism for a moment...)

[Ketchum]

Would you call it hubris on the part of Mack and GD? They had two different types of QB they could sell as having produced.

Honestly, every year was its own story. Some bad luck, some even worse decisions and having no real plan for a few years created the situation.

 

[RLong68]

This is a list of the guys that I pegged to be mega-stars when no one else was saying it at quite the same levels.

Worst

5. Gilbert Moye - Do you even remember him? He was a three-star prospect that I loved back in 2007 and ranked No. 13 in the state. He signed with Missouri and was never heard from. Oops.

4. John Chiles - He was a baby version of Vince Young like Harold Minor was a baby-version of Michael Jordan. The kid had a ton of talent, but it was raw and developed to the point that it felt stupid to have gambled on it to the degree that I did when I ranked him No. 4 in 2007.

3. Andrew Luck - People who talk about the importance of in-person evaluations often fail to realize the confirmation bias that can develop based off of an in person opinion you've formed and clung to because ... well ... you formed it in person, which means that it must be important! I saw Luck throw on a day when he was off and ignored everything else I ever saw of him based on that opinion. Understand, I still had him rated very highly, but he should have been a hell of a lot higher than No. 17 in the state on my list.

2. Robert Griffin - See Luck. I watched Griffin in person at a state playoff game that was so cold I left at halftime. Well, Griffin played poorly in the first half and I judged him as a non-War Daddy. I saw that freaking kid in the flesh and brushed it off because it was cold and windy ... and I had an opinion in person that mattered more than all my non in-person opinions.

1. Garrett Gilbert - I rated him with Vince Young and Drew Brees. No matter that he made the NFL ... I had him on Mount Rushmore as a prospect.

Clearly there is great contradiction in what this list is supposed to include and the inclusions of Luck and Griffin. You probably should simply say these are your 5 worst evals and your 5 best evals.

 

[RLong68]

The news of true freshman wide receiver Troy Omeire tearing it up in practice last week, only to turn around and tear up one of the ACLs in his knee on Saturday was easily the worst news of the weekend on the 40 Acres.

Did you take @Anwar Richardson to the train station for that?

 

[RLong68]

... Alex Smith is a boss.

I guess. Although not sure how bright it is to return from that sort of injury when your team is Washington.

 

[RLong68]

If Ash stays healthy in 2013 and 2014, the program looks a lot different.

Hard to disagree. He was pretty damn solid as a sophomore. Real upside.

 

[RLong68]

How different?

Somewhat reasonable question. I would point out that Case McCoy's QBR that season ended up a whopping 109.3. That included an ugly 3-pick effort at home against Okie Lite loss and a QBR of 46 in Waco. Call me crazy but Ash just might have helped us be a little better that season. And Hell, Mack very well ends up staying for '14. BTW, would you have rather had an experienced talented senior in Ash for QB or Tyrone Swoopes in '14?

 

[RLong68]

Mack playing him as a true freshman as a desperation attempt was messed up.

Even more bizarre was he burned his shirt for a couple of meaningless snaps in that endless blowout against TCU in late October.

 

[Ketchum]

Clearly there is great contradiction in what this list is supposed to include and the inclusions of Luck and Griffin. You probably should simply say these are your 5 worst evals and your 5 best evals.

That's pretty much what I did.

 

[Ketchum]

Did you take @Anwar Richardson to the train station for that?

I try not to shoot my messengers. I might need an important message from them again down the road.

 

[Ketchum]

I guess. Although not sure how bright it is to return from that sort of injury when your team is Washington.

I'm not sure your point has anything to do with my comments about him. His recovery is inspirational regardless of where he plays football, no?

 

[RLong68]

That's pretty much what I did.

Yes. But that's now you described it. Based on being guys you had as "mega stars" before others then Luck and Griffin aren't on the list correct?

 

[Ketchum]

Somewhat reasonable question. I would point out that Case McCoy's QBR that season ended up a whopping 109.3. That included an ugly 3-pick effort at home against Okie Lite loss and a QBR of 46 in Waco. Call me crazy but Ash just might have helped us be a little better that season. And Hell, Mack very well ends up staying for '14. BTW, would you have rather had an experienced talented senior in Ash for QB or Tyrone Swoopes in '14?

a. He was the quarterback for that night against BYU and he was nowhere near a difference maker before departing. He was solid. I'm not sure he changes any of the losses in those seasons.

Does Ole Miss not score in the 40s? Is Ash worth 25 points against a borderline top 10 OSU?

The Baylor game is the real question mark and I can understand thinking he changes the outcome, but I'm just not sure. Mack might still lose his job.

b. Ash, clearly., I just don't know what it means.

 

[RLong68]

a. He was the quarterback for that night against BYU and he was nowhere near a difference maker before departing. He was solid. I'm not sure he changes any of the losses in those seasons.

Does Ole Miss not score in the 40s? Is Ash worth 25 points against a borderline top 10 OSU?

The Baylor game is the real question mark and I can understand thinking he changes the outcome, but I'm just not sure. Mack might still lose his job.

b. Ash, clearly., I just don't know what it means.

Are we going to ignore that 7 of those "25 points" against OSU were the result of a pick six, and 7 more came on a 1-play 21 yd TD pass immediately after another interception? Case was dogsh*t in that game. OSU didn't even have 400 yds of offense that game. Are telling me that, at a minimum, solid QB for us doesn't give us a pretty damn good shot to win that game? For whatever reason, I just don't think you have the appreciation for how things very well could have looked differently for Texas if he's healthy in '13 and '14.

 

[drunk randoke]

Larry was my dude watching that show.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

Did you take @Anwar Richardson to the train station for that?

To be fair, Jason jinxed him on Saturday by saying the injury wasn't major

 

[csbailey34]

Hey @Ketchum question, because I have no idea how to go back on OB and look for it, who(QBs) was ranked above Chance Mock ?

 

[Ketchum]

Are we going to ignore that 7 of those "25 points" against OSU were the result of a pick six, and 7 more came on a 1-play 21 yd TD pass immediately after another interception? Case was dogsh*t in that game. OSU didn't even have 400 yds of offense that game. Are telling me that, at a minimum, solid QB for us doesn't give us a pretty damn good shot to win that game? For whatever reason, I just don't think you have the appreciation for how things very well could have looked differently for Texas if he's healthy in '13 and '14.

I just don't know that David Ash playing means Texas beats Oklahoma State. I can't give a team that lost by 25 that kind of benefit of the doubt.

 

[Williamhill2034]

I'm getting some show recommendations out of this!

Show is a must watch and available currently on Netflix.

 

[Ketchum]

Hey @Ketchum question, because I have no idea how to go back on OB and look for it, who(QBs) was ranked above Chance Mock ?

Brock Berlin and Jeff Smoker.

 

[Ketchum]

To be fair, Jason jinxed him on Saturday by saying the injury wasn't major

 

[RLong68]

I just don't know that David Ash playing means Texas beats Oklahoma State. I can't give a team that lost by 25 that kind of benefit of the doubt.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

 

[JWHD]

Truth on your evaluation. Maybe my old man brain isn't remembering correctly. But I recall him being a bust based on rankings and that he was a highly rated prospect.

IIRC, Swoopes was highly rated(5*?) going into his Junior season but his rating dropped during his senior season (I think his team only won a couple of games). There was also a lot of speculation that a Mac Brown offer boosted his rating and/or kept it boosted beyond what it probably should have been.
Just thought about this, but by 2008 or so Mac had such a strong reputation as a recruiter that his offers may have actually created bias on the part of the ranking services, which would at least partially explain the discrepancy between recruiting rankings and on-field performance of his last few classes. @Ketchum any truth to this? Or am I looking for excuses when bad player development was the primary culprit?

 

[In Stink]

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 TV Bad Ass Tough Guys ...

In honor of my growing love for the character "Rip" in the TV show "Yellowstone," I thought I would come up with a list of my all-time top-10 bad ass, tough guys/gals.

This doesn't automatically mean that they would automatically win a royal rumble battle royal to the death, but it does mean that you probably would not want to battle them in such an event. I considered charisma, fight skills, raw toughness and all kinds of subjective arbitrary factors.

Enjoy.

10. Colt Seavers (The Fall Guy)

If we're talking theme songs, no else is better.

9. Richard Harrow (Boardwalk Empire)

He's not beating The Mountain from Game of Thrones in a stadium, but if The Mountain or any of his boys messed with anything he's attached to, none of them are making it to the stadium.

8. Fonzie (Happy Days)

Has to be on the list, right?

7. Angela Abar (Watchmen)

I will stand on a table for this woman and her performance in this show any day of the week. Come at me, bro.

6. Ron Swanson (Parks and Rec)

American icon.

5. Walter White (Breaking Bad)

Perhaps too low on the list...

4. Al Swearengen (Deadwood)

Kidney stones. That's all I'm going to say.

3. Omar Little (The Wire)

The man whistled and the streets of Baltimore scrambled.

2. Jack Bauer (24)

The no-doubt-about-it-No.1 for me until the end of Game of Thrones.

1. Arya Stark (Game of Thrones)

"I know Death. He's got many faces. I look forward to seeing this one."

Any list of the Top 10 TV bad-ass tough guys that leaves off Buffy the Vampire Slayer is bogus.

Sarah Michelle Gellar kicked more ass than the whole list combined. She might have been best served to leave Arya alone, though.

 

[FtBendHorn]

QB room analysis makes me smile!

 

[sidkrzy1]

So the greatest run of signing QB's at Texas Simms- Young only netted 1 conference championship and the national championship 2005 . What am I missing?

 

[Anwar Richardson]

- Hey Ya was released in 2003, which doesn't even seem that long ago. Of course, if these kids are 17, that means they may not have been born. Wow, we're getting old!

- Got to give Herman for building that QB room. When he got here, his scholarships quarterbacks options were Shane Buechele, Sam Ehlinger and Matthew Merrick. He definitely improved that room.

 

[Ketchum]

You should know be by now. I'm a mule.

 

[Ketchum]

IIRC, Swoopes was highly rated(5*?) going into his Junior season but his rating dropped during his senior season (I think his team only won a couple of games). There was also a lot of speculation that a Mac Brown offer boosted his rating and/or kept it boosted beyond what it probably should have been.
Just thought about this, but by 2008 or so Mac had such a strong reputation as a recruiter that his offers may have actually created bias on the part of the ranking services, which would at least partially explain the discrepancy between recruiting rankings and on-field performance of his last few classes. @Ketchum any truth to this? Or am I looking for excuses when bad player development was the primary culprit?

I think you're reaching. I don't doubt that theories like this might have existed, but the evidence doesn't completely reflect that. I mean... any time a big-time program offers a kid that is otherwise unknown, it creates a platform for that kid, but there were serious criticisms of Mack's recruiting that existed for a long time.

 

[Ketchum]

Any list of the Top 10 TV bad-ass tough guys that leaves off Buffy the Vampire Slayer is bogus.

Sarah Michelle Gellar kicked more ass than the whole list combined. She might have been best served to leave Arya alone, though.

She received serious consideration. Probably No.11