Before we get very far into this column, let's make sure we stress a very important point - no one is screaming "Fire!" in a crowded theater.
That's not to say that there's not currently a fire in the theater because there is. We can all see the flames.
We're just not going to panic. If there's anything we've all become accustomed to over the last decade it’s damn fires inside the theater of the Texas football program. Basically, we've all unknowingly become volunteer fire-fighters without ever meaning to do so. So, instead of acting like a bunch of rookies, we're going to exit the current 6-4 theater like a bunch of professionals that have been around a fire or 10 as followers of all things burnt orange.
So, let's talk about the fire with the understanding that because we all survived Charlie Strong, we can survive anything.
We good? We ready? Everyone got their favorite beverage handy?
With two regular-season games to go in the 2019 season, the Longhorns are 6-4 and unlikely to play another game this season that the rest of the nation pays any attention to. A 7-5 record feels like a very real possibility. So is 8-4. So is 6-6.
The bottom line is that Tom Herman wasn't hired to be 6-4 in his third season in charge of things, let alone a 6-4 team that lacks the kind of discipline that should carry it across the weekly finish line against average football teams or a team that has so few definitive positive things occurring inside of it that not a single assistant coach has any legitimate job security heading into the off-season.
Three years into this thing and heading into year four, there are three elephants in the room that need be addressed.
1. There will be staff changes in the off-season.
Change is coming. It's just a matter of how much change takes place. Herman has prided himself on having staff continuity, but that's only a good thing if each member of the staff is performing at an elite level. Otherwise, you're just bringing back the same average power five coaches from the previous year with your fingers crossed that everything we're all seeing with the naked eye isn't true.
Whatever changes Herman makes to his staff, he should probably understand the stakes involved. Chris Del Conte and all of the various support systems in place will make sure that Herman has as much money as he needs to hire whomever Herman identifies as the group of people that can help flip the momentum back towards Herman's favor.
Here's the deal though ... you only get to do this once at a place like Texas. You get one get out of jail card, unless you have a mountain of accomplishments and goodwill stored up. Rarely do you get a third chance to correct one of the truly critical decisions you're tasked with making as the CEO of a college football program that pays more than six million per year for elite-level production and decision-making.
2. Herman has lost some of the Texas fan base
Del Conte and other Texas athletic officials will beg Texas fans to hold the rope and maintain full belief in Herman, pointing to injuries as the biggest reason for this season's problems.
The problem is that if you have actually taken the time to watch the team play all season, you'll know that it's incredibly disingenuous to suggest that injuries have been a bigger problem than the litany of other issues that exist, from terrible game-management to poor preparation to one confounding dumb action/decision after another.
While the majority of the Texas fan base will continue to hope that Herman grows into the coach he was hired to be, I'd suggest that a majority of Texas fans will also be taking a wait-and-see attitude going into year four and very little tolerance will exist if another wasted season occurs. It's a group that has seen the banana-in-the-tailpipe trick far too many times to voluntarily sign up for a repeat affair if it feels like it’s been to the circus and seen that kind of show before.
In the meantime, the type of Texas fan that patrols the Internet is likely going to be pretty cranky until the pain goes away.
It's going to be a tense next 10 months or so.
3. Recruiting is going to be tricky
A couple of months ago, Herman owned 2020/2021 recruiting at levels that have been rarely seen in the history of the state.
A lot of that was connected to the positive outlook following a Sugar Bowl win in January, but the failures of this season will create some doubt in the championship message that Herman and his staff have been selling since he arrived. As long as Herman's project is on an upward trajectory, the recruiting was always going to be outstanding.
That the momentum is mostly dead and there are serious questions about the trajectory of the program will make things more complicated moving forward.
Every school that recruits against Texas will point to the questionable trajectory and the fact that Herman could be coaching for his Texas career in 2020 as its main talking point against the Longhorns in recruiting.
Making things more problematic is that Herman is still competing against the most competitive recruiting landscape I've seen in 25 years of covering recruiting in the state of Texas. Oklahoma and Texas A&M will continue to be major thorns in UT's side, but LSU's rise this season will make the Tigers a much bigger problem in 2021 recruiting.
While the Longhorns could still sign a top-10 class in 2020 and have a tremendous start in 2021, things are about to get much tougher.
To put it frankly, the worst thing that can happen for the Longhorns in recruiting is for seeds of doubt to be successfully planted in the minds of the best prospects in the state of Texas because that's the kind of thing that can't be fixed overnight. It'll take the type of wins that Texas hasn't had at all this season and if those types of wins don't occur in 2020 pretty quickly (see at LSU and Vs. Oklahoma), Herman could find himself in real trouble.
Overall, we're suddenly at a critical moment in Herman's tenure. This isn't gossip. This isn't overreacting. This is real talk.
Herman has a huge contract that the school will hesitate to ever have to swallow, but that contract cannot and will not protect him from the court of public opinion, both with supporters and recruits.
We can all see the fire, so don't bother trying to argue that the only thing that's on fire is the candle that was lit to light up the room.
Everyone around here knows what a program in flames looks like. Herman's program isn't in out of control flames, but a call to the fire department is about to be made and we can all see it.
No. 2 - Let's talk about Sam ...
No one has been a bigger supporter of Sam Ehlinger than I have. At times, I've probably been too eager of a hype man.
Yet, with two games remaining in his junior season, it's time to make a confession of sorts - Ehlinger hasn't been as good as most of us thought he would be.
The expectation for Ehlinger is that he would take the next step in his progression this season, which would make him an elite-level college player, but that hasn't really come close to happening.
A year ago, Ehlinger posted a 146.8 quarterback efficiency number. This year? Through 10 games, he's at 150.8, which ranks behind Baylor's Charlie Brewer and Iowa State's Brock Purdy. In fact, Ehlinger is currently tied with Texas Tech's Jett Duffey in quarterback efficiency, and Duffy is Tech's back-up quarterback.
The simple fact is that he's been far too inconsistent this season to register as an elite player. Some of it is has to be connected to the injuries he's dealt with this season, but some of it also has to be connected to the fact that he's been pretty inconsistent as a player since his freshman season.
It has to remain a possibility that we all overreacted to Ehlinger's performances against Oklahoma and Georgia last year to such a degree that we lifted him into a status that he truly hasn't earned yet, which is scary because the entire premise of this program being ready to challenge for elite-level status was tied to the theory that it had an elite-level quarterback directing the show.
If it turns out that Ehlinger is merely going to be a very good college quarterback over the next 14 games or so, the rest of his supporting cast will need to pick up the slack, which has been problematic this season and one of the reasons this team is 6-4.
No. 3 - Five Players I'm Still Thinking About 24 Hours Later ...
Devin Duvernay - What will this team do next season to replace him? Is Jake Smith ready for this type of role? He better be because without Duvernay this season, we might be looking at a 3-7 or 4-6 team.
Brennan Eagles - This kid's talent practically oozes all over the field, but so does his own bouts of inconsistency. On one play, he'll create the spectacular and on the next he'll let a ball hit his hands and skip to the ground. It's basically 50-50 on any ball thrown his way. He's going to be an incredibly important player next year and Herman has to figure out how to get the best out of him because it's not currently occurring.
Collin Johnson - If Johnson is healthy and plays on Saturday, the Longhorns win the game. I'm convinced of that.
Jeffery McCulloch - I'm still kind of stunned that he let Juwan Mitchell take his job. How can a kid with all that talent go four full seasons without ever finding the light switch?
DeMarvion Overshown - Whoever coaches the defense next year is going to love working with this kid. He's a season away from being a true difference-maker.
No. 4 - A few thoughts on Texas basketball ...
a. My belief in this team has dropped over the course of the last week following the inspiring road win over Purdue, mostly because of choppy performances against California Baptist and Prairie View A&M. On the bright side, the Longhorns didn't lose either of those games, but on the bad side I can't say that I felt like I watched a team this week that I felt like was heading for a future Sweet 16 spot in March.
b. Texas keeps getting really good looks from three-point range, but just isn't making enough of them. I suppose I'm more likely to be encouraged by the quality of good looks than I am despondent by the lack of makes.
c. Will Baker was the No. 28 player in the country last year. I've yet to see anything from him in four games that supports that ranking. It's still very early in his career, but I was expecting more from him than this.
d. Courtney Ramey has been so up and down through four games that I wonder if he'd be more comfortable playing with the football team.
No. 5 - The Texas volleyball team deserves your adoration ...
Ho-hum, another two games this week for the Texas volleyball team and two more three-set beatdowns to teams in the Big 12 that can't hang.
I'm going to say this every week, but @TexasVolleyball is a must-follow on Twitter.
If you know nothing about the team, here's a few important bullet points.
* Freshman Skylar Fields is one of the best freshmen in the country, as she ranks second in the Big 12 in hitting performance. Basically, she's the one that will make you go, "Oooooh!"
* Senior Micaya White is probably the All-American on the team.
* Sophomore Jhenna Gabriel is the social media star of the group.
It's time to give them your support. Unlike some other sports around here, they won't let you down.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Utah
9. Penn State
10. Minnesota
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) The contract that Herman is signed to will make me say yes to 2021 unless the 2020 season goes off the rails. Texas doesn't want to be Florida State.
(Sell) I think he just played that last offensive series by the book instead of leaning on what his offense had actually been able to do well in Ames. One of the real frustrating aspects of Herman's coaching is that he seems stuck in-between being a new-age coach or an old-school coach with his decision-making and game-management.
(Sell) I see a loss in Waco and a win over Tech at this point.
(Sell) It's one of the best jobs in America, even if it is also one of the most difficult jobs at times.
(Sell) Great question. He simply hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt.
(Sell) I can't get behind hiring someone as disgustingly immoral as Urban. I'd prefer to keep my soul.
(Buy) Of course, Manny Diaz is asking this question ... of course.
(Sell) It's close, but I'd have to Lincoln Riley, Matt Rhule, Mike Gundy, Les Miles and Matt Campbell ahead of him.
(Buy) You nailed it.
(Sell) That will never, never, never happen.
(Buy) You never specified whether it would be football or not, so in the other sports you might have to trust.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Even though Baylor led Oklahoma 28-3, I think I always believed the Sooners would win that game.
... I really don't know what to say about the Tua Tagovailoa situation other than he needs to start putting his future first and the Alabama football team second.
... Is there any way Joe Burrow can lose the Heisman at this point? We might be looking at a historic runaway.
.... I kind of want to believe in Michigan, but I know better.
... Goodness gracious, Baltimore beat the hell out of the Texans. Lamar Jackson was emphatically the best player on the field.
... It was a good day for the Cowboys to say the least. If the Boys had taken care of their business last week, we'd be talking about a two-game lead in the division. Nevertheless, today was a good day.
... I don't want to say anything nice about Dak because if I do, he'll have a terrible game next week, but he was pretty good today.
... Jamies Winston is just terrible.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 George Strait songs ...
I know this one will cause some arguments.
10. Ocean Front Property
9. Baby Blue
8. All My Exes Live in Texas
7. I Cross My Heart
6. Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind
5. The Cowboy Rides Away
4. You Look So Good in Love
3. The Fireman
2. The Chair
1. Amarillo by Morning
No. 10 – And Finally ...
Speaking of King George, I really can't believe that they didn't make a Pure Country 2.
