Let's just pause for a moment, take a deep breath and take stock of what exists in front of us all for the immediate future.
Depending on when you read this, the Longhorns could be five or six days away from the following set of circumstances.
a. Texas beats Iowa State and Tom Herman is two wins away from posting the best Texas regular season since 2009 and will have the Longhorns into the Big 12 Championship game for the second time in three seasons, which equals the same number the Texas program had achieved from 2002-2017.
b. Texas loses to Iowa State, cementing a second consecutive disappointing regular season, thus opening the door for the program to make the change that so many people behind the scenes connected to the program are desperate to make.
For weeks, I've listened to Texas fans say that big decisions like the one facing the Texas administration with regards to its football program should never come down to a game or two, but the reality is that the margins are often really fine. A fascinating set of extreme narratives can arrive out of the ashes of whatever happens on Friday, both of which are indisputably true.
Once upon a time, I wondered if the Longhorns would have the guts and the money to pull the plug on Herman if he disappointed in 2020 as much as he did in 2019, but those concerns have mostly disappeared because enough alums are ready to do whatever it takes to change things up and Herman has a boss that could once again become the most popular seven-figure earner on campus if he's part of a movement that secures the hire of Urban Meyer.
Also, contrary to Herman's public protesting about the topic last Monday, Chris Del Conte's absolute silence on his No. 1 product outside of when he's linking to his weekly newsletter is emphatically loud inside of its extreme quiet.
If Texas loses on Friday, it's a wrap for Herman. At that point, the Longhorns will be making change for a lot of reasons, the least of which won't be with an eye on recruiting, including the early signing period, which is currently 22 days away. Ready or not, here it comes.
On the other hand, if Texas wins on Friday, the Longhorns will be on a four-game winning streak and two very winnable games away from the conference title game. If the Longhorns win these final three games, the first signing period will occur between the end of the Kansas game and the start of the Big 12 Championship game.
While there's been a lot of dispute about whether Herman's job would be safe pending whatever result emerges from the Big 12 Championship game, there's no getting around the fact that making it to the Big 2 Championship game ...
a. Extends the conversation of an uncertain future from 5-6 days to nearly a month.
b. Would create a potentially sticky situation with the kids in the 2021 recruiting class, the majority of which will sign letters of intent in the days leading up to the Big 12 Championship game.
c. Would follow a six-game winning streak and the best regular-season win percentage posted in more than a decade.
I've had a number of people ask me if Herman has any friends left on his side and my answer has become universally the same ... yes, himself. Almost no big money donor in the world is worth as much as a long win streak and time. As long as Herman is inside the bubble of a win streak, his ability to thread the needle on the exact scenario that could secure his return in 2021 remains possible.
Unlike when this program lost to Oklahoma, you get the sense that the resolve to potentially take swift action if the bubble pops exists much more clearly than a month ago.
How long can Herman walk the high-wire? Can Iowa State potentially represent the same type of win that the Oklahoma game in Norman represented for Shaka Smart earlier in the year? Will Urban Meyer's name be trending on Twitter in Austin by 3 p.m. on Friday?
Whatever happens, narratives are on the line, both soaked and bathed in 100-percent accuracy.
No. 2 - If I were Tom Herman ...
After the last couple of weeks, Herman has to know that no amount of call-out is going to bring his boss out of hiding for a comment. Hell, if last week's press conference did anything, it served as a trial balloon for Herman to say whatever he wants while he still has time.
Therefore, I'd do the following things ...
a. Serve as my own hype-man on Monday.
I'd come out with a Mack Brown special on Monday at noon by basically taking the narrative of his job security and going on the offensive. Knowing that it could all blow up by the weekend, I'd be spitting out every favorable stat John Bianco can come up with. My undefeated bowl record? Check. The fact that we're potentially on pace for a historical seasons by the standards of the last 20 years? Check. Sugar Bowl win from less than 24 months ago? Check. Talk about all of that stuff like you're trying to close on mom and pop in an in-home recruiting visit. Spin, spin and spin. Make them disprove your facts.
b. Name-check Del Conte as much as possible.
"No one knows how hard this job is like Del Conte."
"We laughed about all of this last week."
"I have the best athletic director in the world and we talk every almost day."
"He likes me so much that he gave me an extension without even having to ask for it last year."
As long as Herman is winning, it feels like Del Conte runs the risk of having to either endorse him or call him out with any public comments. If he wins this weekend, how could Del Conte speak about him without it being somewhat positive?
Is he poking the nest? Yes.
Is there a real risk in doing so? Not if you believe he has already lost Del Conte.
What's the value of doing so? At some point, if Herman keeps calling him out, Del Conte will have to respond, right? You want him to respond when the team is winning, not coming off of a loss. Heck, you could make a case that the best long-term plan would be to compliment Del Conte so much on Monday that if he does win the Big 12 title, the two can get back on the same back should he return for the 2021 season.
Either way, I would continue to give votes of confidence to myself as Del Conte's proxy on Monday.
c. Forget the 1-0 mantra.
This week is everything. There is no tomorrow without beating Iowa State on Friday.
Therefore, I'd use all of my best motivational/inspirational/tactical tricks. Whatever it takes. He's never needed a team to respond for him like he needs them to respond this weekend.
No. 3 - If I were Chris Del Conte ...
With the Texas athletic director playing the waiting game, I would suggest the following ...
a. Be Ready
Texas wasn't ready in October to make change for a variety of reasons, which has allowed Herman a chance to thread a needle towards a possible path for a return in the last six weeks. If Texas loses on Friday, he'll need to be ready to strike, optics be damned because of the need to avoid uncertainty in recruiting.
b. Be Ready
Texas can't guess with Urban Meyer, it needs to know. Del Conte needs to know. The only thing worse than giving Herman an extension will be coming out of this season with a head coaching option that isn't an upgrade from Herman.
c. Say something important
We know that Del Conte doesn't want to take questions. We know that he doesn't want to come out of the shadows based on his own actions.
Still, I would suggest that he say something in his weekly newsletter that both gives an attaboy to the football team for its winning streak, while also stating in very passive-aggressive fashion that winning the Big 12 title, not getting to the championship game, is the goal of the program and anything less than that translates to continued failure. That would allow him to be supportive, but also sets a bar of achievement that provides more clarity of where things stand with what will define the type of success that either warrants keeping the job or not.
No. 4 - About Iowa State ...
Ummmm ... I was NOT expecting the Cyclones to beat the brakes off of Kansas State so badly on Saturday that I'm now questioning whether or not the Longhorns warrant being the favorite going into the game.
Brock Purdy hasn't been good all season and yet he emerged on Saturday as the player everyone thought he might be when he was being discussed as a Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year candidate. He still enters this game with a 137.5 season efficiency rating, but he seemed to discover himself on Saturday in a way that should make Chris Ash and Co. slightly anxious.
Two weeks ago, this team was down by two touchdowns to Baylor at halftime and it could have been more. It lost in its season-opener by 17 to Louisiana. It beat Oklahoma by seven and lost to Oklahoma State by the same amount.
This feels like a game that could have a lot of different outcomes, but let's be clear. Iowa State has the best running game in the Big 12, a shaky passing game and a pretty good defense. This isn't the 1985 Bears coming to town, but it's on a three-game winning streak where the Cyclones have outscored its opponents 135-53.
It feels like a 50-50 game. Neither team truly warrants being trusted.
No. 5 - Re-Introducing you to Breece Hall ...
You might be wondering about the Big 12's best running back this season and where the hell he came from.
Well, he was a high-three star recruit from the state of Kansas that had offers from the likes of Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, Iowa, Minnesota and a host of others. He's basically rated where current Texas commitment Jonathan Brooks is rated across the board as a national prospect.
In a win over the Longhorns last season, he went for his fourth 100-yard game of his true freshman season and he's posted 100 yards rushing in 12 of his last 16 games (including all eight games this season).
He good.
Can Chris Ash and the Texas run defense do what no team has really done all season, which is find a way to marginalize Hall?
No. 6 - A Long Timeout ...
For those wondering about the No. 1 ranked Texas women's volleyball team, which just wrapped up another Big 12 title last weekend with a two-match takedown of Baylor, it'll be a while before the team is back on the court.
With its matches against TCU postponed this weekend, the team will now wait for its schedule and the looming NCAA Tournament ... in the spring.
When in the spring?
No one really knows. The NCAA Tournament show is expected to be on April 4th, but it remains to be seen exactly when the second half of the season will begin.
It's weird, but stay tuned.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think they are both gone.
(Buy) Duh. Urban is not only available and shiny, but he's legitimately one of the greatest coaches of all-time.
(Sell) I think there's a very good chance it happens this weekend, but I wouldn't bet my left or right nut on it.
(Buy) I've been told the buyout money will be there if called upon.
(Buy) Absolutely. The early signing period beginning right after Kansas State can't be underscored enough.
(Sell) People that break news are typically popular, so Anwar will be fine. I'm sure it'll be alleged that I'm the Boogie Man, but what else is new?
(Buy) They are all on here.
(Sell) It'll be a coin flip game into the final few minutes.
(Sell) I don't think it's quite as cut and dry as that, but there's definite interest.
(Sell) If he returns, it means Texas won its first Big 12 title in a decade, will play in its second major bowl game in three years and the reality of the moment will simply need to sink in for fans who are out on a guy that might still pull off a miracle.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... As someone that watched the first three minutes of the Ohio State/Indiana game and thought the Buckeyes were going to bash Indiana's Cinderella slipper into pieces, I wonder what that game might have looked like if there had been 15 more minutes of game-time. The Hoosiers earned some damn respect. Michael Penix Jr. can ball. Consider me impressed.
... Alabama's DeVonta Smith is special. I'm not sure that those of us living in Jaylen Waddle country truly appreciate his greatness enough.
... I don't know that BYU deserves to be in the playoff, but I don't think anyone wants a piece of them, either.
... An undefeated Northwestern vs. an undefeated Ohio State sate team for the Big 10 title is starting to look like a real possibility.
... Coastal Carolina being ranked in the top 15 feels overly inflated.
... No one wants to play Tennessee from the AFC in the playoffs. That's not to say that the Titans are going to the Super Bowl. I'm just saying that that team is a gigantic pain in the ass and everyone will want to avoid them.
... How bout dem Cowboys?1!?!? I have such mixed emotions over that win because I'm all about securing the best draft position at this point and my fantasy team was blown to pieces in the final five minutes of Dallas' comeback. Yet, losing sucks. So, I'm just going to enjoy the moment and then forget about the long-term implications of winning a truly meaningless game in a lost season.
... I feel like the last paragraph could just as easily be talking about the experience of a Texans fan on Sunday.
... The Dak Prescott/Carson Wentz debate is settled, right?
... Taysom Hill was pretty good on Sunday. Pretty ... pretty good.
... That Steelers final six-game schedule is very doable.
... I'm really looking forward to the upcoming NBA season.
.... Premier League Thoughts In a Paragraph: To hell with injuries, the Reds did the damn thing in beating Leicester 3-0 (felt like 6-0) on Sunday. The title still goes through the red part of Merceyside. The fact that Manchester City sits eight points behind the Reds before Thanksgiving seems important. Shots (Man City 22 Tottenham 5) Shots on Goal (Man City 5 Tottenham 2) Final score (Manchester City 0 Totten 2). Where have we seen that before? Liverpool have played the No.3, No.4, No.6, No.7, and No.8 teams in the EPL, and that doesn't even include Arsenal and Man City. Bring on some Fulhams, damnit!
... A special piece of sports entertainment history...
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 What-Ifs in Texas football history ...
From a discussion born out of a podcast that Anwar and I did from earlier in the week, I give you the Top 10 "What Ifs" of Texas football in my lifetime (born in 1976).
10. Ryan Perrilloux signs with Texas
This is probably an impossible one to pin down, but there's a chance that Colt McCoy would have signed with LSU and Martellus Bennett signs with the Longhorns, which would have given the Longhorns a Bennett/Jermichael Finley duo at tight end for both the 2006-07 seasons. If McCoy had signed with the Longhorns, it would have likely been a Perrilloux/McCoy battle for the starting job in 2006, as Jevan Snead would have never signed with the Longhorns if Perrilloux had been on the UT campus. Would getting away from the state of Louisiana allowed a true NFL talent to blossom or would Perrilloux have flamed out like he did with LSU?
9. Shea Morenz Never Gets Hurt
Back in 1994, Morenz and future Texas legend James Brown somewhat shared the quarterback duties throughout the season, but it's easy to forget that Morenz was the undisputed starter at the time of his injury in the fourth quarter of a 34-10 home loss to Texas A&M and had been the nation's No. 1-ranked quarterback prospect when he arrived in Austin. Yet, he never played another down for the Longhorns after the A&M game because Brown took over in the final three games of the season and helped the Longhorns win out. The next spring, Morenz was drafted in the first round of the MLB Draft by the Yankees and took the money. Had he never lost his job to Brown, history likely looks completely different.
8. Will Muschamp doesn't take the Florida job
As bad as the 2010 season was, the Longhorns certainly did not want to see their head coach-in-waiting leave for Gainesville. Had he stayed in Austin, would he have been Mack Brown's replacement in 2013? Would it have taken that long? One thing is certain, there never would have been a Manny Diaz disaster.
7. Charlie Strong beats Kansas
Although this will likely set off quite the set of arguments, there's a very real chance that Strong would have been given the 2017 season if he had somehow found a way not to lose to the Jayhawks in 2016. That means that he almost certainly would have lost his job the following season, but Tom Herman to Texas likely would have never happened because he would have ended up at LSU.
6. Adrian Peterson signs with Texas
If Peterson had signed with the Longhorns, there's a chance that Texas plays for national championships in every single one of his seasons and a Vince Young/Peterson duo would have been the best in the history of the sport.
5. Vince Young returns in 2006
The Longhorns would have likely played Florida for a second consecutive national championship.
4. Mack Brown walks away after losing to Baylor in the 2013 season-finale
The question everyone has forever wanted answered would finally be known .... would Nick Saban have left Alabama for Texas if Mack hadn't blocked the move?
3. Blake Gideon catches the interception in Lubbock
The Longhorns would have run the table and played Florida for the national championship game in 2008, instead of losing that chance in favor of Oklahoma.
2. Craig Curry catches the punt in the Cotton Bowl vs. Georgia
Texas would have held on to beat Georgia, the Longhorns would have been in a position to win the national title with a loss from Nebraska to Miami that night and the Fred Akers era might have gone on for longer than a mere three more seasons.
1. Colt McCoy doesn't get hurt vs. Alabama
The Longhorns potentially win national title No. 2 under Mack, who might have rode off into the sunset and handed the keys to the program over to Muschamp.
No.10 - And finally ...
In case you missed the thread that was pinned to the board this weekend, The University of Texas is looking for people to
share their personal experiences with The Eyes of Texas. If you want your voice or story heard, this sounds like a great way to do so.
Just click here.
