Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Let's talk about Tom's game management...)

[sodiumacetate]

14-6 is not a two-score deficit...

But 14-3 is. Sorry, this was me being petty and I should have just let it slide the first time.

We obviously fundamentally disagree on what constitutes good and bad game management. I subscribe to the relative value based on statistical analysis. Watching coaches with less talent outclass Texas for many years by playing the odds has been maddening. Again, Texas was 80% converting 4th downs last year. Obviously it's hard to not regress towards the mean a bit, but being aggressive pays out a lot more than it doesn't in the modern college game.

 

[Armadillo Slim]

"drunk fanatic"

Exactly.

 

[tzrider]

Spesking of game management, Joker Horn snuck in a very good point on another thread. Is there another coach on staff willing to question Herman on some of these decisions during the actual game? Or is just a bunch of group think up there?

He can log on to OB, and get all the right calls. At least with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Ketchum]

But 14-3 is. Sorry, this was me being petty and I should have just let it slide the first time.

We obviously fundamentally disagree on what constitutes good and bad game management. I subscribe to the relative value based on statistical analysis. Watching coaches with less talent outclass Texas for many years by playing the odds has been maddening. Again, Texas was 80% converting 4th downs last year. Obviously it's hard to not regress towards the mean a bit, but being aggressive pays out a lot more than it doesn't in the modern college game.

Agree to disagree, indeed. I typically lean on statistical analysis as well (no one writes about it more than I do), but context always matters... and in that context, I think you take the three.

More than anything, that was just one of several questionable game management issues of concern.

It's merely the only one that some are focused on.

 

[IL Padrino]

Without the two muffed punts we aren’t even talking about game management because the Horns win by 3 TDs.

well, game management played a role in one of those muffs.

Fair enough.

 

[RLong68]

Good stuff, but Ehlinger will not be in New York at the end of this season, nor will he skip his senior season. Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow are the front runners. Justin Fields and Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor are in the conversation. Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are in the mix. Nobody outside of Austin is talking about Ehlinger for the Heisman.

Realistically, October is the month where the real discussions begin. Clearly Ehlinger started the season as an outsider. NOBODY was talking about Colt McCoy as a '08 Heisman in September '08. That changed REAL f'n quick once October got rolling. Rest assured, if Ehlinger's very good play continues and Texas is 8-1 after October then plenty outside Austin will be talking about the possibility of him at least being in NY. tOSU has played NOBODY. Will Fields collapse when they do. Perhaps not. But we need to see tOSU play some warm bodies first. Clearly Tua and Burrow are experienced and likely will be in the thick of it. But beyond that, a seat in NY is for the taking for Sam. But right now, there's been too many dead weight opponents for a lot of candidates to put a ton of stock into projections for NYC.

 

[League City Horn]

Idk if I agree w Gundy having a bad game plan. I tend to think we gave them a defensive look that forced them into play calls and beat them w fewer, better players. Due to doubling Wallace all night, we were basically playing 10v11.

Both teams essentially ran the same defensive scheme all night, daring the other to run the ball against 5&6 man fronts w 3 deep safeties. Texas had to play a 5 man front bc we doubled Wallace. In today’s RPO world 5 man front means run the ball, but they couldn’t in the first half bc they were running between the tackles. Gundy adjusted by running outside the tackles and running the QB more starting late in the first half. Our lack of containment was scary.

From the stands I don’t recall us sending more than 4 on the rush on passes until the 4th quarter.

OSU played w a six man front, which is again a run front. We kept the TE in and blocked the run w 6, and were successful moving the ball. From the stands I thought we should run Sam more to bring 7 in the box and throw.

Overall I think we dominated the game, but points off turnovers made the game much closer than it needed to be.

I agreed w the 2pt conversion call, disagreed w the 4th & 3 call esp kicking w the wind, and thought the play call in the 4th on 4th &1 was horrid. Running the clock down and going 5 wide meant Sam was running, we called it in the stands.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we trot out the same plan v OU and double Lamb, but they have a better OL and Calcaterra is a big threat at TE. Calcaterra getting hurt on the first drive last year was a game changer.

i agree. would add that the 2 botched punts and that miraculous qb scramble in the 4qtr made this game look closer.

 

[tball88]

I am one of the likely few who actually agreed with going for it on 4th and 3 there. I also thought the play call was completely terrible as was the play later in short yardage, 5 wide and a QB dive, WTF? both terrible, and had both been better play calls likely give us the game going away pretty easily.

I thought the same at the time. They were not posing much of a threat defensively and we knew they were going to score td’s, so I liked the call to go for it, I was expecting a quick slant or possibly something to the te. I thought the yardage was a bit long to run it.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

Realistically, October is the month where the real discussions begin. Clearly Ehlinger started the season as an outsider. NOBODY was talking about Colt McCoy as a '08 Heisman in September '08. That changed REAL f'n quick once October got rolling. Rest assured, if Ehlinger's very good play continues and Texas is 8-1 after October then plenty outside Austin will be talking about the possibility of him at least being in NY. tOSU has played NOBODY. Will Fields collapse when they do. Perhaps not. But we need to see tOSU play some warm bodies first. Clearly Tua and Burrow are experienced and likely will be in the thick of it. But beyond that, a seat in NY is for the taking for Sam. But right now, there's been too many dead weight opponents for a lot of candidates to put a ton of stock into projections for NYC.

It would be a great achievement. If he looks good against OU, you might be right.

 

[UTDB]

I remember thinking either they didn’t play Jevan because they knew he was transferring or he transferred because they wouldn’t play him even when colt was gimped.

It was a while ago but I remember that after the season, it was exposed that he had dfeinitely made the season to transfer before the game against Aggie

 

[RLong68]

It was a while ago but I remember that after the season, it was exposed that he had dfeinitely made the season to transfer before the game against Aggie

This.

 

[styrbjorn]

Regarding point #1, I understand your take and that particular call was a failure. In a larger context, though, I'd rather we err on the side of pouring on the gas offensively. That includes the 4th quarter - I have a much bigger concern with our shelling up late than with us being overly aggressive early. To be honest, our D isn't a strength right now and we have several games left where field goals probably won't help us much. I hope like hell we do game plan for teams like OU with the assumption we will need 40 points as table stakes.

On #6 (your top 10) I am not buying Auburn as a top 10 team. Oregon looked like a better team in Week 1, and Auburn was frankly outplayed for most of the A&M game. They got their points on 1 trick play and 2 short fields but were out-gained most of the night against an Aggy team that is not really impressing me so far.

Just my 2 cents. Good 10TFTW, Ketch.

 

[tzrider]

Interesting little graphic.

Baylor and OU have played trash teams. Rice is the best team Baylor has played and they scored 21. If you really think Baylor has a top 10 offense, I don’t know what to tell you. We’ll see on OU when they play somebody decent.

 

[heightshorn1]

Idk if I agree w Gundy having a bad game plan. I tend to think we gave them a defensive look that forced them into play calls and beat them w fewer, better players. Due to doubling Wallace all night, we were basically playing 10v11.

Both teams essentially ran the same defensive scheme all night, daring the other to run the ball against 5&6 man fronts w 3 deep safeties. Texas had to play a 5 man front bc we doubled Wallace. In today’s RPO world 5 man front means run the ball, but they couldn’t in the first half bc they were running between the tackles. Gundy adjusted by running outside the tackles and running the QB more starting late in the first half. Our lack of containment was scary.

From the stands I don’t recall us sending more than 4 on the rush on passes until the 4th quarter.

OSU played w a six man front, which is again a run front. We kept the TE in and blocked the run w 6, and were successful moving the ball. From the stands I thought we should run Sam more to bring 7 in the box and throw.

Overall I think we dominated the game, but points off turnovers made the game much closer than it needed to be.

I agreed w the 2pt conversion call, disagreed w the 4th & 3 call esp kicking w the wind, and thought the play call in the 4th on 4th &1 was horrid. Running the clock down and going 5 wide meant Sam was running, we called it in the stands.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we trot out the same plan v OU and double Lamb, but they have a better OL and Calcaterra is a big threat at TE. Calcaterra getting hurt on the first drive last year was a game changer.

Just has to be Sam on a rpo on any 4th and over 2 yard play.

 

[heightshorn1]

Interesting little graphic.

Glad we’re done with Maryland!!!

 

[Ketchum]

i agree. would add that the 2 botched punts and that miraculous qb scramble in the 4qtr made this game look closer.

His game plan is saved by those Texas mistakes.

 

[Ketchum]

Regarding point #1, I understand your take and that particular call was a failure. In a larger context, though, I'd rather we err on the side of pouring on the gas offensively. That includes the 4th quarter - I have a much bigger concern with our shelling up late than with us being overly aggressive early. To be honest, our D isn't a strength right now and we have several games left where field goals probably won't help us much. I hope like hell we do game plan for teams like OU with the assumption we will need 40 points as table stakes.

On #6 (your top 10) I am not buying Auburn as a top 10 team. Oregon looked like a better team in Week 1, and Auburn was frankly outplayed for most of the A&M game. They got their points on 1 trick play and 2 short fields but were out-gained most of the night against an Aggy team that is not really impressing me so far.

Just my 2 cents. Good 10TFTW, Ketch.

You thought A&M outplayed Auburn?

 

[Ketchum]

Baylor and OU have played trash teams. Rice is the best team Baylor has played and they scored 21. If you really think Baylor has a top 10 offense, I don’t know what to tell you. We’ll see on OU when they play somebody decent.

I don't think anything. I merely posted a graphic.

 

[Ketchum]

Glad we’re done with Maryland!!!

No shit!

 

[Pudge66]

My only beef with your write up is failing to mention how conservative Herman got with about 9 minutes left in the game. For as aggressive as he seems early in the game, he could have been more aggressive after the second interception and the punt after that. We did not make a first down on either drive and the play calling was very conservative.

 

[styrbjorn]

You thought A&M outplayed Auburn?

OK that was a bit of hyperbole but yeah for most of the game the total yards were actually in A&M's favor. Regardless, the overall quality of that game did not make me think I was looking at any contenders for the Top 10.

 

[Ketchum]

My only beef with your write up is failing to mention how conservative Herman got with about 9 minutes left in the game. For as aggressive as he seems early in the game, he could have been more aggressive after the second interception and the punt after that. We did not make a first down on either drive and the play calling was very conservative.

I tried to make it look like I was trying to ruin a great win.

 

[Ketchum]

OK that was a bit of hyperbole but yeah for most of the game the total yards were actually in A&M's favor. Regardless, the overall quality of that game did not make me think I was looking at any contenders for the Top 10.

fair enough.

 

[txfight]

@Ketchum

I was unable to hear the game but from the looks of it, we had a player on D go down about every other play. Anything you think is lasting?

Also, who the hell is Chris Adimora? It looked like he came up with a couple of very big plays at the end of the game.

 

[teyon shoes]

@Ketchum “His foot is always on the gas, which means he's going to go for it on fourth down, bypass three points in the quest for seven and generally see the game through an aggressive offensive lens.”

How do you explain him choking out our own offense beginning late in the third quarter?

Texas is going to have a hard time getting a very good FG kicker if this philosophy stays intact and Dicker is on the verge of being a great kicker. He should take a lesson from the mullet, who threw away 9 points by not kicking the field goals that were lay ups. Remember the late...great Tom Landry, always take the points unless its late in the game and a field goal does not win the game.

 

[djw314]

Well, he wanted to talk about the fourth and three play-call in the second quarter when the Longhorns were in makeable field goal range, which if converted would have put the Longhorns up by 11 points.
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It is also in an area where Dicker has already missed twice this season. Not a bad decision. The bad decision was not calling timeout and changing the play when he saw the defense line up.

 

[Garyrebs92]

I thought the 4th and 3 was the right call...did not like the play that was called...especially when on the last series when its 3rd down and a 11 yards for a first with 50 plus seconds left you have a quarterback that fakes it to his left and roles to his right for 20+ yards to seal the win. Where was that play on 4th and 3? Last 3 games...our offense, for the most part, was able to put points up with each series...yet...for the 4th quarter of this game...what did we have...2 or 3 three and outs because we kept trying to run the ball at them? I think Gundy had a great game plan...defense was rarely ever set with their hurry up offense and our 3 man front...it wasnt scared money...he's owned this team and DKR for the last 4 years. I'm glad that we got the W...but I'm starting to question the rest of the season based on what I saw Saturday. Kids played their heart out on defense...stats show that. Our offense (which should be our trength), special teams, and play calling was definitely lacking in the last part of the second quarter...and pretty much the entire 4th quarter.

 

[Vinsanity12]

I like Deshaun Watson so much that I think the Texans are a really good head coach away from being a genuine Super Bowl threat. He was just a monster in San Diego.

Agree completely. Imagine if he had a decent line (feels like I say that every year) O’Brien is the perfect guy to get you 10-11 wins in a weak division and an early playoff exit.

 

[BlackStallionMexicanFood]

Ketch said:
"(Buy) I don't think I'll pick against Sam Ehlinger the rest of the year in any game."

Boy howdy that's a rather big and bold statement. Going out on a limb aren't you? Are you a native Texan with that kind of swagger or are you just trying to emulate our rather blustery President, Donald Trump? Or maybe just a little bit of both?

 

[magnahorn]

Our FG % is 73 over the last two seasons. Hardly automatic. So it can’t be guaranteed we’re “taking points off the board”. I assume that goes into Tom’s thinking.

i don't have a huge problem with going for it on 4th down. My issue is they mill around and let the clock run down, then rush up to the line and run a play they can't get out of. I can't imagine a better time to get to the line early, force the D to show their hand, then call the play.

Both the plays called and the execution have been weak sauce.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum

I was unable to hear the game but from the looks of it, we had a player on D go down about every other play. Anything you think is lasting?

Also, who the hell is Chris Adimora? It looked like he came up with a couple of very big plays at the end of the game.

Injury list is brutal. Secondary is inexperienced and thin at the moment.

Adimore is a bad ass out of state true freshman.

 

[Ketchum]

It is also in an area where Dicker has already missed twice this season. Not a bad decision. The bad decision was not calling timeout and changing the play when he saw the defense line up.

I mean... all of it was bad.

 

[Ketchum]

Agree completely. Imagine if he had a decent line (feels like I say that every year) O’Brien is the perfect guy to get you 10-11 wins in a weak division and an early playoff exit.

Watson is one of those dudes that the fans of the teams that passed on him cringe and think what-ifs for years upon years.

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch said:
"(Buy) I don't think I'll pick against Sam Ehlinger the rest of the year in any game."

Boy howdy that's a rather big and bold statement. Going out on a limb aren't you? Are you a native Texan with that kind of swagger or are you just trying to emulate our rather blustery President, Donald Trump? Or maybe just a little bit of both?

I think my swagger took . a step back after hearing today's injury news.

 

[Ketchum]

i don't have a huge problem with going for it on 4th down. My issue is they mill around and let the clock run down, then rush up to the line and run a play they can't get out of. I can't imagine a better time to get to the line early, force the D to show their hand, then call the play.

Both the plays called and the execution have been weak sauce.

Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?