Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Let's talk about Tom's game management...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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- Mar 14, 2007
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But Gundy doesn't KNOW ahead of time that Hubbard will only get 3.3 yards per rush. His entire season before Texas tells him Hubbard will get significantly more than that.
I agree with you superficially on the Wallace targets but 1) Texas' pass coverage took Wallace away from Gundy and his INEXPERIENCED QB and 2) 2 INTS by an inexperienced QB doesn't / shouldn't incline you to put the game on his shoulders with a pass-heavy attack.
It's easy to say Wallace should have gotten more targets, but Sanders completed 19 passes to 7 receivers, ALL but Hubbard got 10 / 10+ yards per catch. It's not like only Wallace made sense as a target, especially with Texas' coverages. You're giving Gundy all the blame and not Texas enough of the CREDIT.
IMO.
Thanks for the discussion.
Hook'em Horns!
Disagree strongly. Gundy played with scared money and scared money don't make money.
I have a feeling the rest of the season will prove that I am right.But Gundy doesn't KNOW ahead of time that Hubbard will only get 3.3 yards per rush. His entire season before Texas tells him Hubbard will get significantly more than that.
I agree with you superficially on the Wallace targets but 1) Texas' pass coverage took Wallace away from Gundy and his INEXPERIENCED QB and 2) 2 INTS by an inexperienced QB doesn't / shouldn't incline you to put the game on his shoulders with a pass-heavy attack.
It's easy to say Wallace should have gotten more targets, but Sanders completed 19 passes to 7 receivers, ALL but Hubbard got 10 / 10+ yards per catch. It's not like only Wallace made sense as a target, especially with Texas' coverages. You're giving Gundy all the blame and not Texas enough of the CREDIT.
IMO.
Thanks for the discussion.
Hook'em Horns!
The bottom line is that Texas struggles to pass rush, struggles to tackle and struggles to tackle in the open field.
They don't really struggle at the point of attack.
Gundy came out last season and attacked our replacement CBs at will. I was really shocked he didn't force the ball to Wallace.
I'd be interested in seeing the data of 4th down decisions over the past ~2.25 of ~3 yards or less. My guess is that we forget some of the successful ones and remember the ones that didn't result in points, just human nature imo.
Let's talk about Texas head coach Tom Herman for a moment at the beginning of this week's column.
In the aftermath of Saturday's critical win over Oklahoma State, Herman's role in the game was enough of a warranted talking point that Herman brought it up in the post-game press conference on his own.
He wanted to talk about it.
Well, he wanted to talk about the fourth and three play-call in the second quarter when the Longhorns were in makeable field goal range, which if converted would have put the Longhorns up by 11 points.
The old school, conventional way of thinking is that you take the three points.
Herman isn't old school.
In fact, he's so new school that when he followed an unconventional decision with a worse play-call, he didn't even sweat to bother with that whole unconventional part of it all.
“Not the decision to go for it, but went to the well one too many times on a play that had been good to us the entire year,” Herman said. “Should have known they’d be in an all-out coverage zero blitz to stop that play. I was disappointed in myself.”
But, Tom ... it was fourth and three ...
“I know you guys are infatuated with the binder, and the binder says anything under six [yards] to go for it,” Herman said. “I kind of listened to it a little bit. But you know, we were playing pretty good. It was just it was an ill-advised call. It was the right decision. It was a poor call.”
(The binder says WHAT?!?! Sorry, I just felt the need for a quick footnote)
In Tom's mind it was an "ill-advised call," but not an ill-advised big picture decision.
Of course, more than that one situation in that game was worthy of inspection from a game management standpoint (You can read about it all right there), but I don't really want to get into another discussion about the 60 minutes against Oklahoma State as much as I want to talk about the subject of Herman's game management from a 30,000-foot view.
It's an absolute credit to Herman that we're in year three under his watch and the continuation of questionable game management isn't really a major talking point in the Oragebloods universe. Not when you have the program competing for conference championships and recruiting is roaring like Taylor Hamm on Twitter on a Saturday night.
From 30,000 feet up, Herman is kicking ass.
Yet, on Saturdays his game management/decision-making can look sketchy. Those things can exist at the same time and not be mutually exclusive.
The thing that I end up reminding myself about Herman is that he's still fairly new to this whole game management as a head coach thing. This is just his fifth year as a head coach and second as a head coach that calls offensive plays, so we're talking about a guy that's still a work in progress.
Still.
I'll be honest when I admit that I don't know the arbitrary age where we decide once and for all that he's either great, average or bad in the area of game management, but I'm personally still giving him the benefit of the doubt.
From my standpoint, he's a guy that's all-in on being new school instead of an old school guy when it comes to approaching the game at fundamental levels, but he probably doesn't own the right balance of new/old school because too much of almost anything can eventually turn bad.
His foot is always on the gas, which means he's going to go for it on fourth down, bypass three points in the quest for seven and generally see the game through an aggressive offensive lens.
For example, I'm totally down with the analytics telling him that he should go for seven as much as possible when you're inside the five yard line. Where I would suggest bringing more balance is in a situation like Saturday night when you're staring at fourth and three at the 28-yard line instead of a fourth and goal at the two.
Bill Belichick is as aggressive as anyone and I'll promise you that he takes the three points in that game context 100 times out of 100.
Moving forward, it's quite possible that Herman's ability to better master his game management role will determine whether this team wins a Big 12 championship because this figures to be a season where a fair share of one-possession games could occur. The sooner he starts working games with the kind of velvet touch that a 20-year pro would display instead of a young guy still working out the kinks, the better.
I'd like to offer apologies to those who believe this entire opening section was nothing more than a nitpick from a Sunday morning quarterback working with the advantages of hindsight to build his case.
In a sport often defined by incredibly small margins, your details being finely tuned absolutely matters.
They mattered on Saturday night when a potential comfortable win turned out to be much harder than it needed to be.
They will matter again this season.
No. 2 - One little non-Texas rant from the Texas/Oklahoma State game ...
Say what you want about Tom Herman's game management issues, but those issues pale in comparison to the plan Mike Gundy brought into last night's game.
While Herman has some somewhat isolated moments, I think Gundy lost that game for his team before the game even started.
Facing a Texas secondary that hasn't played consistently well all season and was missing a number of key parts, Gundy decided that he wanted to win the game by trying to run into the teeth of a Texas run defense that has been so much better than its pass defense.
Instead of feeding the ball to its talented cast of receivers, Gundy just kept going to Chuba Hubbard at a record rate like a guy in Vegas that is convinced to make a ninth bet because he's lost the first eight and must be due. Hubbard averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the night and had a long of 12 yards.
Meanwhile, Gundy did the one thing no one at Texas was sure it could completely do - he slowed down Tylan Wallace. Forty minutes into the game, Wallace had a total of four targets. When they went to him, he produced, but they just went out of their way not to feature him more.
As the game went on and more Texas defensive backs dropped like flies with injuries, he just kept running the ball.
No. 3 - Nit-pick Sam Ehlinger you want, but ...
These are words I'm not sure I thought I would ever say, but we're currently watching the best quarterback season in the history of the program.
Not including post-season games, he's on pace to throw 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
The season record at Texas is Colt McCoy's 34 touchdown passes in 2008.
Assuming he stays for his senior season, there's a chance he ends up breaking almost all of Colt McCoy's records.
Stop focusing on the few throws he doesn't complete and start focusing on what he is actually doing because we're watching a special player every week.
No. 4 - Let's talk about Devin Duvernay ...
I've been holding off on the hyperbole surrounding the play of senior wide receiver Devin Duvernay, but after four games it's probably pretty safe to say the following ...
Duvernay is on his way to producing one of the best individual seasons that any receiver has ever had at Texas.
As it currently stands, Duvernay not only leads the nation in receptions, but he's a bit of a runaway leader with 39, while Hawaii's Cedric Byrd is second with 33.
If we do nothing but look at Duvernay's current projection through 12 games (not including a Big 12 Championship or bowl game), we're looking at a 117-catch season, which includes 1,131 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The school record for receptions in a season is 116, which Jordan Shipley posted in his historic 2009 season. Kwame Cavil's 100-catch season in 1999 ranks No. 2 all-time in school history and no other receiver in burnt orange has ever pulled off more than 92. The school record for receiving touchdowns in a season is Shipley's 13 in 2009.
Duvernay wasn't even expected to be the team's No. 1 receiver this season, but he's emerged as a top five player on the team ... maybe top 3.
As good as Lil'Jordan Humphrey was a season ago, Duvernay has been even better this season.
No. 5 - Five players I'm still thinking of ...
Montrell Estelle - The sophomore from Hooks had never made more than two tackles in a game in his short career before Saturday night when he made nine tackles (including a tackle for loss), while also recording the first interception of his career. With the secondary completely banged up, Estelle not only filled in, he filled in incredibly well. Attaboy, Montrell.
Taquan Graham - For the second straight week, his physicality in the run game really stood out. The best thing I can say is that he was incredibly active and this Texas defense needs more of it.
Keaontay Ingram - Ingram racked up 140 yards of offense in a big game, making the LSU performance a few weeks ago a bit of a distant memory. Perhaps most important was the volume of work he was trusted with on Saturday night, as his 21 carries were eight more than he'd had in any game in the first three weeks of the season. In fact, it was the first 20-carry performance of his career.
Juwan Mitchell - Keeps playing better and better and better. Very clearly the team's No. 3 linebacker at this point in the season and he's only going to get better.
Joseph Ossai - Forced a fumble and had a big tackle inside the five-yard line on Oklahoma State's first drive, but when the game started he seemed to be favoring his shoulder considerably and I wondered how much football he'd even be able to play. Instead, he played all four quarters and really turned the intensity up in the second half. Afterwards, he said this.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Wisconsin
8. Auburn
9. Texas
10. Notre Dame
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I don't think I'll pick against Sam Ehlinger the rest of the year in any game.
(Buy) I think he's a third round type of guy.
(Sell) Texas will not be lucky if it makes the Big 12 title game. It has the best player at the most important position of anyone in the conference and that matters.
(Buy) Yes on both.
(Buy) Yup. He's already proven too valuable to not have a role for the rest of the season.
(Buy) Follow me here ...
a. The word fan is short for fanatic.
b. By definition, fanatics are extreme about the things that they are fanatics about.
c. When Texas plays on a Saturday night, those fanatics often drink a lot of alcohol.
d. Alcohol has been known to cloud judgment.
e. Drunk fanatics gonna drunk fanatic.
(Sell) It's not that the Aggies don't have four committed prospects that the Longhorns might have an interest in under different circumstances, but the Longhorns are full at a few key positions, while the Aggies don't have elite prospects in areas the Longhorns would truly be interested in adding at this juncture of the 2020 recruiting process. I'd say Demond Demas and Jaylen Jones would be the exceptions.
(Sell) He's going to come close, though.
(Buy) It's like we're in each other's minds sometimes.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …[/B
... Is Joe Burrow going to be a Heisman finalist? My goodness, he just keeps on dealing.
... Ok, Wisconsin, you have my attention.
... Wait, the final score in the UCLA-Washington State game was what!?!
... Shane Buechele had been on the wrong end of a TCU beatdown, so it was only fair that he deliver a dagger to the Horned Frogs with SMU. I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed it.
... Road games in Waco and Ames feel like potentially the two most dangerous games remaining for the Longhorns, not including the Oklahoma game. West Virginia is probably No. 3.
... Aggies gonna Aggie.
... Someone give Antonio Brown a hug, just in case his needing one is the reason for all of this.
... I think Dallas probably played a C-level game on Sunday against the Dolphins and they still won by 25 points. The naked eye tells me that this is probably the best Dallas team since the 2007 group and I think at the end of the season we might have to have a talk about that one, too.
... I like Deshaun Watson so much that I think the Texans are a really good head coach away from being a genuine Super Bowl threat. He was just a monster in San Diego.
... Patrick Mahomes threw for 374 yards on Sunday against the Ravens and it seemed like he was in complete cruise control.
... In the battle of former A&M quarterback transfers, Kyle Allen punked out Kyler Murray in Murray's own crib, playing what amounted to almost a perfect game, while Murray looked completely overwhelmed.
... Alright, Daniel Jones. I see you.
... What the hell is going on in La Liga?
... Geez, Watford? Do you have any pride left at all?
... Inject this into my veins!
... Oh, well, inject this into my veins, too!
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Texas Wide Receivers Seasons ...
In a follow-up to the Devin Duvernay discussion from above, I thought we'd take a look at the top 10 wide receiver seasons in Texas football history.
10. Limas Sweed (2006) - 46 receptions for 801 yards and 12 touchdowns
9. Mike Adams (1993) - 52 receptions for 908 yards and seven touchdowns
8. Lil'Jordan Humphrey (2018) - 86 receptions for 1,176 yards and 9 touchdowns
7. Wane McGarity (1998) - 58 receptions for 1,087 yards and 9 touchdowns
6. Roy Williams (2003) - 70 receptions for 1,079 yards and 9 touchdowns
5. Kwame Cavil (1999) - 100 receptions for 1,188 yards and 6 touchdowns
4. Jordan Shipley (2008) - 89 receptions for 1,060 yards and 11 touchdowns
3. Quan Cosby (2008) - 92 receptions for 1,123 yards and 10 touchdowns
2. Roy Williams (2002) - 64 receptions for 1,142 yards and 12 touchdowns
1. Jordan Shipley (2009) - 116 receptions for 1,485 yards and 13 touchdowns
No. 10 – And Finally ...
Like so many others, I found myself pretty stunned about the death of former Texas quarterback Jevan Snead this weekend.
I really never got to know Snead during the recruiting process because his relationship with YTexas came together so quickly at the end of the 2006 recruiting year that it kind of felt like a shotgun marriage after his commitment to Florida dissolved after he stopped believing the Florida coaches when they kept telling him Tim Tebow wasn't going to be a quarterback for the Gators.
If I remember correctly, he saw a photo of Urban Meyer sitting with Tebow's dad on a golf cart and he knew the score and he suddenly became a monster Texas quarterback signing at a time when Texas wasn't getting them.
The only thing that kept him from likely having a very good career at Texas was the presence of a guy named Colt McCoy, who basically won the starting quarterback job over Snead during the summer of 2006.
I found it interesting that Snead had been living in Austin at the time of his death. My thoughts are with his family, who didn't deserve to lose a loved one at the age of 32.
Rest in peace, Jevan.
New OB’ism now available for use on all remaining game threads:
Drunk fanatics gonna drunk fanatic
Hey @collinhookem18 , there’s your new handle. You can be just like your drunk uncle, @drunk randoke . Make this happen @Ketchum
P.s. good column
I am one of the likely few who actually agreed with going for it on 4th and 3 there. I also thought the play call was completely terrible as was the play later in short yardage, 5 wide and a QB dive, WTF? both terrible, and had both been better play calls likely give us the game going away pretty easily.
IMO, the binder and Tom’s use of it will pay off.
Now that the base offense is in and we have some depth, you will see more sets and plays .
I think the game context matters most. It was the first time all night that Texas had a chance to create two-score separation, something that didn't happen again until the fourth quarter.
"drunk fanatic"New OB’ism now available for use on all remaining game threads:
Drunk fanatics gonna drunk fanatic
Hey @collinhookem18 , there’s your new handle. You can be just like your drunk uncle, @drunk randoke . Make this happen @Ketchum
P.s. good column
Herman still approaches game day as if he still is the underdog. He is still doing on the job training. Everything else he does for the program is top notch. He will learn.
Conservative doesn't equate to scared.
It can, but in that situation on Saturday, it equated to smart.
- Mar 14, 2007
- 19,666
- 15,583
- 113
You've really lost me now. Gundy cannot make decisions based on how Texas' FUTURE season plays out.
The rest of the season (subsequent to the game) doesn't prove anything about Gundy's decision-making in the Texas game on Sept. 21st. That's what we're talking about.
Texas didn't struggle to get a pass rush or tackle in the game Saturday night, at least not significantly. At this point you've wandered afield from your original points about strategy. As I understand it.
In any case thanks for the discussion. JMOs.
Hook'em Horns!
I agree, have there been times where we went for it on 4th and 3, got it, and ended up with 7 points in this time? I'd guess we do, but none come to mind.
What about similar down and distance but ~midfield, and we make it and are able to get points or run more clock. My guess is that the "notebook" has some of that info.
Given the discussion, and likelihood of Herman continuing to be aggressive, I'd be interested in seeing that analysis. Just not interested enough to do it myself.
@Anwar Richardson
Sam has the 6th best Heisman odds currently in Vegas. We can't really pretend like he's a long shot. Especially if they beat Oklahoma in October. Probably would need to win in December.
Sam has the 6th best Heisman odds currently in Vegas. We can't really pretend like he's a long shot. Especially if they beat Oklahoma in October. Probably would need to win in December.
You mean the first time all night besides when they had already had it?
Last year they converted 80% of their fourth down conversions. Someone once said that scared money don't make money.
I'm simply saying we're going to see this Texas pass defense exposed again, by lesser opponents.You've really lost me now. Gundy cannot make decisions based on how Texas' FUTURE season plays out.
The rest of the season (subsequent to the game) doesn't prove anything about Gundy's decision-making in the Texas game on Sept. 21st. That's what we're talking about.
Texas didn't struggle to get a pass rush or tackle in the game Saturday night, at least not significantly. At this point you've wandered afield from your original points about strategy. As I understand it.
In any case thanks for the discussion. JMOs.
Hook'em Horns!
Gundy didn't trust his quarterback. He should have.
I do what I can my friend.New OB’ism now available for use on all remaining game threads:
Drunk fanatics gonna drunk fanatic
Hey @collinhookem18 , there’s your new handle. You can be just like your drunk uncle, @drunk randoke . Make this happen @Ketchum
P.s. good column
But 14-3 is. Sorry, this was me being petty and I should have just let it slide the first time.
We obviously fundamentally disagree on what constitutes good and bad game management. I subscribe to the relative value based on statistical analysis. Watching coaches with less talent outclass Texas for many years by playing the odds has been maddening. Again, Texas was 80% converting 4th downs last year. Obviously it's hard to not regress towards the mean a bit, but being aggressive pays out a lot more than it doesn't in the modern college game.
He can log on to OB, and get all the right calls. At least with the benefit of hindsight.
Agree to disagree, indeed. I typically lean on statistical analysis as well (no one writes about it more than I do), but context always matters... and in that context, I think you take the three.
More than anything, that was just one of several questionable game management issues of concern.
It's merely the only one that some are focused on.
