Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Let's talk about Tom's game management...)

[Ketchum]

Gundy went for 3 instead of 7... three times. His 'velvet touch' left him 6 points short. I'll take Tom.

If only it were just that one play...

 

[Ketchum]

Baylor struggled with Rice. Still think Waco is a difficult game?

It was last year.

I think Charlie Brewer could have a big game.

 

[Ketchum]

Gundy was thinking 2 things:

IF he could win the game running the ball it was much preferable to and easier than winning with a passing attack. Just old-school football.

Run-first look, especially if successful, sets up the passing attack for effectiveness, whereas inability to run the ball strongly undercuts it. THEN he's one-dimensional, one of Orlando's goals.

Further, Texas' 3 / 3 / 5 is designed more for a pass defense than run defense, and Orlando's proclivities to experiment with Cowboy (I believe it's called) i.e. 3 / 8 defense shows his willingness to put a pass heavy defense with ability to attack the QB with athletic mobile DB / LB hybrids all over the field, while defending the pass.

Gundy picked his poison, but it wasn't necessarily the wrong poison. Texas managed to get 2 interceptions as it was with the limited passing attack. Imagine how may turnovers result from twice as many passes. 4?

Maybe you are correct. But it's easy to draw that conclusion after losing taking the other approach. But maybe you lose by more taking a pass-heavy approach?

We'll never know for certain. Just my 2 cents.

Montrell Estelle and Chris Brown played pretty damn good games. I'm not certain more passes was the winning formula. JMO.

Hook'em Horns!

It was a better formula than banging his head into the wall with Hubbard at 3.3 yards per clip.

Giving Wallace one target for every 10 minutes of game time is failing as an offensive mind.

 

[Ketchum]

Disagree. As of now their QBs, nix, is not good. Can't hit the broadside of a barn. I think we matchup more than favorably with them and would win by 3 scores. Auburn is overrated. Felt the same way about michigan

You realize Texas is very average on defense and missing key players in the secondary, right?

 

[Ketchum]

Indeed. In context, there is little difference between 12 and 13, but a huge difference between 11 and 12.

I wonder also how long we give TH a pass on game management because he's young, and only in his 5th year as a HC? Sean McVay is a wunderkind, but is only 33; then there's that whole Lincoln Riley thing. At some point, we may be forced to acknowledge that TH may be short on gut instinct under pressure, compared to other young coaches.

It is a possibility for sure.

 

[BigSkyHorn]

It pains me to say it, but you were right @Ketchum Day 2 of draft has Rounds 2 & 3.

 

[Ketchum]

Without the two muffed punts we aren’t even talking about game management because the Horns win by 3 TDs.

well, game management played a role in one of those muffs.

 

[Ketchum]

I agree with you that Saturdays, Herman's game management skills can look "sketchy", Ketchy.

and i KNOW sketchy.

 

[RLong68]

I'd like to offer apologies to those who believe this entire opening section was nothing more than a nitpick from a Sunday morning quarterback working with the advantages of hindsight to build his case.

It's not really "hindsight." Several questionable decisions. Honestly, while bypassing a FG for 4th and 3 is more of a subjective call but still worth debating, there were far more questionable decisions that were less subjective that were head scratchers. Going for 2 on our last TD was odd given it risked having only an 11-point lead instead of 12. There's little to no difference, particularly that late, between 12 and 13. There's a LOT of difference between 11 and 12. Having Jones even back there on the second muffed punt was questionable. Back to the "fg or go for it" decisions for Herman, questions on that have gone all the way back to game 1 in '17 against Terps when he passed up a surefire 3 for 4th and 5. Keep in mind, that was with an offense that was REALLY struggling.

 

[Ketchum]

It's not really "hindsight." Several questionable decisions. Honestly, while bypassing a FG for 4th and 3 is more of a subjective call but still worth debating, there were far more questionable decisions that were less subjective that were head scratchers. Going for 2 on our last TD was odd given it risked having only an 11-point lead instead of 12. There's little to no difference, particularly that late, between 12 and 13. There's a LOT of difference between 11 and 12. Having Jones even back there on the second muffed punt was questionable. Back to the "fg or go for it" decisions for Herman, questions on that have gone all the way back to game 1 in '17 against Terps when he passed up a surefire 3 for 4th and 5. Keep in mind, that was with an offense that was REALLY struggling.

Exactly.

 

[RLong68]

“I know you guys are infatuated with the binder, and the binder says anything under six [yards] to go for it,” Herman said. “I kind of listened to it a little bit. But you know, we were playing pretty good. It was just it was an ill-advised call. It was the right decision. It was a poor call.”

That's arrogant Tom coming out.

 

[RLong68]

His foot is always on the gas, which means he's going to go for it on fourth down, bypass three points in the quest for seven and generally see the game through an aggressive offensive lens.

The irony in that is when Okie State was BEGGING us to knock them out, we went into a shell on offense despite obscenely great field position. Against a team that we were wearing out.

 

[RLong68]

No. 4 - Let's talk about Devin Duvernay ...

As the President of the Quan Cosby Fan Club, I really have to consider if Dev, gulp, isn't a, gulp, better Quan. His transformation from his first 2 underperforming seasons has been quite a joy. What is funny, is you can probably dig up any number of posts dated THIS year where people questioned Dev and were completely blind to the signs of change he showed last season.

 

[TD TX TD VY]

It was a better formula than banging his head into the wall with Hubbard at 3.3 yards per clip.

Giving Wallace one target for every 10 minutes of game time is failing as an offensive mind.

Yep. Double covered or not, given our DBs proven inability to play the ball thus far.

 

[RLong68]

Stop focusing on the few throws he doesn't complete and start focusing on what he is actually doing because we're watching a special player every week.

I'm a little puzzled at some of the "Sam was a bit off but..." type comments this weekend. I thought he played rather well. I mean, he is going to miss deep throws still but it was another typical game from him (in terms of the the type he has been putting up since OU last season).

 

[RLong68]

... Ok, Wisconsin, you have my attention.

Easy. Big Blue is relatively terrible. Not saying Wisky sux, but I'm not going to put a ton of stock into them beating the dog out of a Harbaugh team that is not good.

 

[RLong68]

... Shane Buechele had been on the wrong end of a TCU beatdown, so it was only fair that he deliver a dagger to the Horned Frogs with SMU. I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed it.

Good to finally have a Texas-Ex QB at SMU to pull for.

 

[RLong68]

... Road games in Waco and Ames feel like potentially the two most dangerous games remaining for the Longhorns, not including the Oklahoma game. West Virginia is probably No. 3.

My gut tells me K-State will be tougher than at least 2 of those, even though it's in Austin. Will be interesting to see how they play in Stillwater this weekend off a bye week and Okie Lite off a physically draining loss.

 

[RLong68]

... In the battle of former A&M quarterback transfers, Kyle Allen punked out Kyler Murray in Murray's own crib, playing what amounted to almost a perfect game, while Murray looked completely overwhelmed.

 

[RLong68]

I found it interesting that Snead had been living in Austin at the time of his death. My thoughts are with his family, who didn't deserve to lose a loved one at the age of 32.

Rest in peace, Jevan.

Having experienced my parents grieve the loss of one of their kids, I hate hearing stuff like that. So sad.

 

[fshanks]

Really sad about Jevan Snead. May he R.I.P. and God Bless his family.

 

[Uncut Degenerate]

The irony in that is when Okie State was BEGGING us to knock them out, we went into a shell on offense despite obscenely great field position. Against a team that we were wearing out.

We should have run away with that game by at least three scores.

 

[Uncut Degenerate]

As the President of the Quan Cosby Fan Club, I really have to consider if Dev, gulp, isn't a, gulp, better Quan. His transformation from his first 2 underperforming seasons has been quite a joy. What is funny, is you can probably dig up any number of posts dated THIS year where people questioned Dev and were completely blind to the signs of change he showed last season.

There are a few threads where some guys openly questioned whether he would even be a starter this season. His hands were automatic last season.

 

[sodiumacetate]

Game context matters and the data does not reflect that.

The data is just that: data. It strips away the human nature that can cloud our vision. In the end, it's a tool that helps make decisions, but it is not an end all be all that anyone is a slave to. Herman even said that he often doesn't follow it. But you acted shocked that the analytics say to go for it there, which I find odd given how much has been written about it.

Bottom line is that I am surprised that you think there is a problem with the way Herman manages games. I always got the feeling you were on the more forward thinking side of the spectrum. I am glad we finally have a coach who recognizes that the traditional (antiquated) conservative approach does not properly balance the risks and rewards of a given decision.

 

[RLong68]

There are a few threads where some guys openly questioned whether he would even be a starter this season. His hands were automatic last season.

Yep. STRONG hands.

 

[dallashorn02]

well, game management played a role in one of those muffs.

Spesking of game management, Joker Horn snuck in a very good point on another thread. Is there another coach on staff willing to question Herman on some of these decisions during the actual game? Or is just a bunch of group think up there?

 

[torin42]

(Buy) It's like we're in each other's minds sometimes.

I almost spit my coffee out at this...

 

[sodiumacetate]

Idk if I agree w Gundy having a bad game plan. I tend to think we gave them a defensive look that forced them into play calls and beat them w fewer, better players. Due to doubling Wallace all night, we were basically playing 10v11.

Texas running a three man front on defense...of course I would ram the ball down their throats with a running back like Hubbard...and a dual threat quarterback like Spencer.

Couldn't agree more. Gundy had a great game plan based on what Texas was doing defensively. Strange take in this column.

 

[sodiumacetate]

I'm perfectly willing to criticize CTH, but I have to say, I agree exactly with his analysis on this.

Not that I would have been UNWILLING to take the 3 points. But I don't think the going for it decision was necessarily wrong, in fact, I think the MAJORITY of the time it will work. And that will be the standard of if it is the correct decision.

Exactly. Very surprised how many on here subscribe to the antiquated way of thinking after watching guys like Gundy, Dana, and Riley outcoach and outclass us with the more data driven approach.

 

[Ketchum]

As the President of the Quan Cosby Fan Club, I really have to consider if Dev, gulp, isn't a, gulp, better Quan. His transformation from his first 2 underperforming seasons has been quite a joy. What is funny, is you can probably dig up any number of posts dated THIS year where people questioned Dev and were completely blind to the signs of change he showed last season.

He's been an absolute revelation and has made Collin's injury/absense a non-story.