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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Let's talk about Tom's game management...)

Good stuff, but Ehlinger will not be in New York at the end of this season, nor will he skip his senior season. Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow are the front runners. Justin Fields and Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor are in the conversation. Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are in the mix. Nobody outside of Austin is talking about Ehlinger for the Heisman.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Not sure how he could realistically be in the mix and Sam not.
 
Trevor Lawrence has thrown 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Not sure how he could realistically be in the mix and Sam not.
He was the the absolute last guy I mentioned. The other guys I mentioned before him are in the mix for sure
 
He was the the absolute last guy I mentioned. The other guys I mentioned before him are in the mix for sure
I'm not disagreeing with your general sentiment that Sam won't be in New York, even though I think he's probably deserving. The choice between him and Hurts probably comes down to how things go when they play each other. Lawrence will not be there, period unless there's drastic improvement in his on field performance.
 
Texas running a three man front on defense...of course I would ram the ball down their throats with a running back like Hubbard...and a dual threat quarterback like Spencer. A quarterback like Joe Burrow rips our backfield apart...1 game...and they are the worst thing on the planet...please. they are young, they are learning, and making progress with each game. Thing that confused me the most was the playcalling toward the end of the 2nd quarter and pretty much all of the 4th quarter. Also, special teams, 3 muffed punts...lost two of them? Still not a team that can control all phases of the game. at this point I dont think we are an 11-1 team...but more like a 9-3 team. Saturday was very hard to watch...based on the first 3 games...I believe Texas left a lot of points on the field. It felt like Texas was helping OSU to stay in the game. To me...after what I witnessed on that field on Saturday...even Kansas has an opportunity to beat Texas.
 
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Let's talk about Texas head coach Tom Herman for a moment at the beginning of this week's column.

In the aftermath of Saturday's critical win over Oklahoma State, Herman's role in the game was enough of a warranted talking point that Herman brought it up in the post-game press conference on his own.

He wanted to talk about it.

Well, he wanted to talk about the fourth and three play-call in the second quarter when the Longhorns were in makeable field goal range, which if converted would have put the Longhorns up by 11 points.

The old school, conventional way of thinking is that you take the three points.

Herman isn't old school.

In fact, he's so new school that when he followed an unconventional decision with a worse play-call, he didn't even sweat to bother with that whole unconventional part of it all.

“Not the decision to go for it, but went to the well one too many times on a play that had been good to us the entire year,” Herman said. “Should have known they’d be in an all-out coverage zero blitz to stop that play. I was disappointed in myself.”​

But, Tom ... it was fourth and three ...

“I know you guys are infatuated with the binder, and the binder says anything under six [yards] to go for it,” Herman said. “I kind of listened to it a little bit. But you know, we were playing pretty good. It was just it was an ill-advised call. It was the right decision. It was a poor call.”

(The binder says WHAT?!?! Sorry, I just felt the need for a quick footnote)

In Tom's mind it was an "ill-advised call," but not an ill-advised big picture decision.

Of course, more than that one situation in that game was worthy of inspection from a game management standpoint (You can read about it all right there), but I don't really want to get into another discussion about the 60 minutes against Oklahoma State as much as I want to talk about the subject of Herman's game management from a 30,000-foot view.

It's an absolute credit to Herman that we're in year three under his watch and the continuation of questionable game management isn't really a major talking point in the Oragebloods universe. Not when you have the program competing for conference championships and recruiting is roaring like Taylor Hamm on Twitter on a Saturday night.

From 30,000 feet up, Herman is kicking ass.

Yet, on Saturdays his game management/decision-making can look sketchy. Those things can exist at the same time and not be mutually exclusive.

The thing that I end up reminding myself about Herman is that he's still fairly new to this whole game management as a head coach thing. This is just his fifth year as a head coach and second as a head coach that calls offensive plays, so we're talking about a guy that's still a work in progress.

Still.

I'll be honest when I admit that I don't know the arbitrary age where we decide once and for all that he's either great, average or bad in the area of game management, but I'm personally still giving him the benefit of the doubt.

From my standpoint, he's a guy that's all-in on being new school instead of an old school guy when it comes to approaching the game at fundamental levels, but he probably doesn't own the right balance of new/old school because too much of almost anything can eventually turn bad.

His foot is always on the gas, which means he's going to go for it on fourth down, bypass three points in the quest for seven and generally see the game through an aggressive offensive lens.

For example, I'm totally down with the analytics telling him that he should go for seven as much as possible when you're inside the five yard line. Where I would suggest bringing more balance is in a situation like Saturday night when you're staring at fourth and three at the 28-yard line instead of a fourth and goal at the two.

Bill Belichick is as aggressive as anyone and I'll promise you that he takes the three points in that game context 100 times out of 100.

Moving forward, it's quite possible that Herman's ability to better master his game management role will determine whether this team wins a Big 12 championship because this figures to be a season where a fair share of one-possession games could occur. The sooner he starts working games with the kind of velvet touch that a 20-year pro would display instead of a young guy still working out the kinks, the better.

I'd like to offer apologies to those who believe this entire opening section was nothing more than a nitpick from a Sunday morning quarterback working with the advantages of hindsight to build his case.

In a sport often defined by incredibly small margins, your details being finely tuned absolutely matters.

They mattered on Saturday night when a potential comfortable win turned out to be much harder than it needed to be.

They will matter again this season.​

No. 2 - One little non-Texas rant from the Texas/Oklahoma State game ...

Say what you want about Tom Herman's game management issues, but those issues pale in comparison to the plan Mike Gundy brought into last night's game.

While Herman has some somewhat isolated moments, I think Gundy lost that game for his team before the game even started.

Facing a Texas secondary that hasn't played consistently well all season and was missing a number of key parts, Gundy decided that he wanted to win the game by trying to run into the teeth of a Texas run defense that has been so much better than its pass defense.

Instead of feeding the ball to its talented cast of receivers, Gundy just kept going to Chuba Hubbard at a record rate like a guy in Vegas that is convinced to make a ninth bet because he's lost the first eight and must be due. Hubbard averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the night and had a long of 12 yards.

Meanwhile, Gundy did the one thing no one at Texas was sure it could completely do - he slowed down Tylan Wallace. Forty minutes into the game, Wallace had a total of four targets. When they went to him, he produced, but they just went out of their way not to feature him more.

As the game went on and more Texas defensive backs dropped like flies with injuries, he just kept running the ball.
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No. 3 - Nit-pick Sam Ehlinger you want, but ...

These are words I'm not sure I thought I would ever say, but we're currently watching the best quarterback season in the history of the program.

Not including post-season games, he's on pace to throw 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

The season record at Texas is Colt McCoy's 34 touchdown passes in 2008.

Assuming he stays for his senior season, there's a chance he ends up breaking almost all of Colt McCoy's records.

Stop focusing on the few throws he doesn't complete and start focusing on what he is actually doing because we're watching a special player every week.

No. 4 - Let's talk about Devin Duvernay ...

I've been holding off on the hyperbole surrounding the play of senior wide receiver Devin Duvernay, but after four games it's probably pretty safe to say the following ...

Duvernay is on his way to producing one of the best individual seasons that any receiver has ever had at Texas.

As it currently stands, Duvernay not only leads the nation in receptions, but he's a bit of a runaway leader with 39, while Hawaii's Cedric Byrd is second with 33.

If we do nothing but look at Duvernay's current projection through 12 games (not including a Big 12 Championship or bowl game), we're looking at a 117-catch season, which includes 1,131 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The school record for receptions in a season is 116, which Jordan Shipley posted in his historic 2009 season. Kwame Cavil's 100-catch season in 1999 ranks No. 2 all-time in school history and no other receiver in burnt orange has ever pulled off more than 92. The school record for receiving touchdowns in a season is Shipley's 13 in 2009.

Duvernay wasn't even expected to be the team's No. 1 receiver this season, but he's emerged as a top five player on the team ... maybe top 3.

As good as Lil'Jordan Humphrey was a season ago, Duvernay has been even better this season.

No. 5 - Five players I'm still thinking of ...

Montrell Estelle - The sophomore from Hooks had never made more than two tackles in a game in his short career before Saturday night when he made nine tackles (including a tackle for loss), while also recording the first interception of his career. With the secondary completely banged up, Estelle not only filled in, he filled in incredibly well. Attaboy, Montrell.

Taquan Graham - For the second straight week, his physicality in the run game really stood out. The best thing I can say is that he was incredibly active and this Texas defense needs more of it.

Keaontay Ingram - Ingram racked up 140 yards of offense in a big game, making the LSU performance a few weeks ago a bit of a distant memory. Perhaps most important was the volume of work he was trusted with on Saturday night, as his 21 carries were eight more than he'd had in any game in the first three weeks of the season. In fact, it was the first 20-carry performance of his career.

Juwan Mitchell - Keeps playing better and better and better. Very clearly the team's No. 3 linebacker at this point in the season and he's only going to get better.

Joseph Ossai - Forced a fumble and had a big tackle inside the five-yard line on Oklahoma State's first drive, but when the game started he seemed to be favoring his shoulder considerably and I wondered how much football he'd even be able to play. Instead, he played all four quarters and really turned the intensity up in the second half. Afterwards, he said this.


No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...


1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Wisconsin
8. Auburn
9. Texas
10. Notre Dame

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif



(Buy) I don't think I'll pick against Sam Ehlinger the rest of the year in any game.


(Buy) I think he's a third round type of guy.


(Sell) Texas will not be lucky if it makes the Big 12 title game. It has the best player at the most important position of anyone in the conference and that matters.


(Buy) Yes on both.


(Buy) Yup. He's already proven too valuable to not have a role for the rest of the season.


(Buy) Follow me here ...

a. The word fan is short for fanatic.

b. By definition, fanatics are extreme about the things that they are fanatics about.

c. When Texas plays on a Saturday night, those fanatics often drink a lot of alcohol.

d. Alcohol has been known to cloud judgment.

e. Drunk fanatics gonna drunk fanatic.


(Sell) It's not that the Aggies don't have four committed prospects that the Longhorns might have an interest in under different circumstances, but the Longhorns are full at a few key positions, while the Aggies don't have elite prospects in areas the Longhorns would truly be interested in adding at this juncture of the 2020 recruiting process. I'd say Demond Demas and Jaylen Jones would be the exceptions.


(Sell) He's going to come close, though.


(Buy) It's like we're in each other's minds sometimes.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …[/B

... Is Joe Burrow going to be a Heisman finalist? My goodness, he just keeps on dealing.

... Ok, Wisconsin, you have my attention.

... Wait, the final score in the UCLA-Washington State game was what!?!

... Shane Buechele had been on the wrong end of a TCU beatdown, so it was only fair that he deliver a dagger to the Horned Frogs with SMU. I have to admit, I kind of enjoyed it.

... Road games in Waco and Ames feel like potentially the two most dangerous games remaining for the Longhorns, not including the Oklahoma game. West Virginia is probably No. 3.

... Aggies gonna Aggie.
EFBYhl2WsAEuoWN


... Someone give Antonio Brown a hug, just in case his needing one is the reason for all of this.

... I think Dallas probably played a C-level game on Sunday against the Dolphins and they still won by 25 points. The naked eye tells me that this is probably the best Dallas team since the 2007 group and I think at the end of the season we might have to have a talk about that one, too.

... I like Deshaun Watson so much that I think the Texans are a really good head coach away from being a genuine Super Bowl threat. He was just a monster in San Diego.

... Patrick Mahomes threw for 374 yards on Sunday against the Ravens and it seemed like he was in complete cruise control.

... In the battle of former A&M quarterback transfers, Kyle Allen punked out Kyler Murray in Murray's own crib, playing what amounted to almost a perfect game, while Murray looked completely overwhelmed.

... Alright, Daniel Jones. I see you.

... What the hell is going on in La Liga?

... Geez, Watford? Do you have any pride left at all?

... Inject this into my veins!


... Oh, well, inject this into my veins, too!


No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Texas Wide Receivers Seasons ...

In a follow-up to the Devin Duvernay discussion from above, I thought we'd take a look at the top 10 wide receiver seasons in Texas football history.

10. Limas Sweed (2006) - 46 receptions for 801 yards and 12 touchdowns
9. Mike Adams (1993) - 52 receptions for 908 yards and seven touchdowns
8. Lil'Jordan Humphrey (2018) - 86 receptions for 1,176 yards and 9 touchdowns
7. Wane McGarity (1998) - 58 receptions for 1,087 yards and 9 touchdowns
6. Roy Williams (2003) - 70 receptions for 1,079 yards and 9 touchdowns
5. Kwame Cavil (1999) - 100 receptions for 1,188 yards and 6 touchdowns
4. Jordan Shipley (2008) - 89 receptions for 1,060 yards and 11 touchdowns
3. Quan Cosby (2008) - 92 receptions for 1,123 yards and 10 touchdowns
2. Roy Williams (2002) - 64 receptions for 1,142 yards and 12 touchdowns
1. Jordan Shipley (2009) - 116 receptions for 1,485 yards and 13 touchdowns

No. 10 – And Finally ...

Like so many others, I found myself pretty stunned about the death of former Texas quarterback Jevan Snead this weekend.

I really never got to know Snead during the recruiting process because his relationship with YTexas came together so quickly at the end of the 2006 recruiting year that it kind of felt like a shotgun marriage after his commitment to Florida dissolved after he stopped believing the Florida coaches when they kept telling him Tim Tebow wasn't going to be a quarterback for the Gators.

If I remember correctly, he saw a photo of Urban Meyer sitting with Tebow's dad on a golf cart and he knew the score and he suddenly became a monster Texas quarterback signing at a time when Texas wasn't getting them.

The only thing that kept him from likely having a very good career at Texas was the presence of a guy named Colt McCoy, who basically won the starting quarterback job over Snead during the summer of 2006.

I found it interesting that Snead had been living in Austin at the time of his death. My thoughts are with his family, who didn't deserve to lose a loved one at the age of 32.

Rest in peace, Jevan.
So right on Duvernay; beast! Adimora deserves an honorable mention.
On United, they are skimming along at rock bottom. Just enjoying the EPL season overall. United is a lost club until the management is overhauled.
 
Good stuff, but Ehlinger will not be in New York at the end of this season, nor will he skip his senior season. Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow are the front runners. Justin Fields and Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor are in the conversation. Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are in the mix. Nobody outside of Austin is talking about Ehlinger for the Heisman.

Well I'm glad you aren't the decision maker.....A little early to completely dismiss a player 1/3 of the way into the season. But I get what you are saying.
 
Interesting but I disagree. I think they are an SEC fraud. Ehlinger’s team over Nix all day. The rest of your top 10 I agree with you.
Their defense looked pretty good. They tackle well. Because they can throw as well right now id probably pick us as well once we get a few guys healthy. Their DT #5 is a damn beast by the way.
 
Good stuff, but Ehlinger will not be in New York at the end of this season, nor will he skip his senior season. Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow are the front runners. Justin Fields and Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor are in the conversation. Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are in the mix. Nobody outside of Austin is talking about Ehlinger for the Heisman.
Yeah those dudes are killing it right now.

Sam needs to have a great game against ou and he has a chance to jump into that conversation
 
Nice write-up, @Ketchum. Some good points that I agree completely with.

I have a question for you regarding Jevan Snead ((RIP, Jevan, so sorry to see this). I have always thought Mack Brown blew a chance at a B12 title playing Colt against aggy at the end of the season when McCoy couldn't throw the ball 10 yards because of the lingering effects of his stinger injury. So aggy stacked the box, we lost 10-7 and Colt was carted off the field. If Brown had played Jevan, I believe we would have won. I know Jevan was erratic in relief the week before in Manhattan, but he put up 28 points. Jevan with a leash would have had a better chance to win that game with our defense. Your thoughts?
100-percent agree.

I remember thinking either they didn’t play Jevan because they knew he was transferring or he transferred because they wouldn’t play him even when colt was gimped.
 
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The sooner he starts working games with the kind of velvet touch that a 20-year pro would display instead of a young guy still working out the kinks, the better.

Gundy went for 3 instead of 7... three times. His 'velvet touch' left him 6 points short. I'll take Tom.

There are obvious reasons we are sitting at our keyboards and not on the recruiting trail with UT coaches this week. Hook'em.
 
I remember thinking either they didn’t play Jevan because they knew he was transferring or he transferred because they wouldn’t play him even when colt was gimped.
It's the latter. The transfer decision came after that game. They played Jevan the week before in relief and he almost pulled it out, although he had issues. Why not play him again against aggy?

I have OFTEN thought that Jevan transferred because Brown wouldn't start him even when Colt was badly injured. When aggy figured out Colt was limited in his range, they stacked the box. That game was brutal to watch, unfair to Colt, cost us a B12 title and ran off Jevan Snead.
 
What is going on in that Aggie pic? I am missing something. The guy is reaching between his legs?
 
What is going on in that Aggie pic? I am missing something. The guy is reaching between his legs?
No the other leg is someone's arm it's an illusion kind of like the aggie hall of champions

He is just reaching over to that side.

I was wondering what Ketch was meaning with that photo though
 
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In Tom's mind it was an "ill-advised call," but not an ill-advised big picture decision.

I'm perfectly willing to criticize CTH, but I have to say, I agree exactly with his analysis on this.

Not that I would have been UNWILLING to take the 3 points. But I don't think the going for it decision was necessarily wrong, in fact, I think the MAJORITY of the time it will work. And that will be the standard of if it is the correct decision.

But looking out at that play just before running it, clearly, you stop and call a time out and call another play. Perhaps a traditional 11 personnel RPO look, play action motion run left, bootleg the QB right after the RB fake, the TE blocks / fake blocks, then sprints to the right end zone and Sam hits him open in the end zone or runs the ball in himself. For example. Or a similar design but with the sides reversed. Or another play, depending on the defense.

JMO. I'm sure there are other options as well.

Hook'em Horns!
 
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Here's where the program is at with Herman's 4th down calls.

In 2019 against power 5 opponents, Herman is 1-4 on 4th down conversios, with all three misses taking points off the board. The lone successful conversion was the Duvernay touchdown in the LSU game where the ball was at the LSU 44 and no points were taken off the board.

I'm not sure what's in the binder, but the analytics currently say the offense sucks shit through a straw on 4th down, especially when taking points off the board.​

It's hard to take a post like this seriously when the sample size is 4 (?!?) and Herman even admits that the playcall was atrocious on the last one.
 
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Facing a Texas secondary that hasn't played consistently well all season and was missing a number of key parts, Gundy decided that he wanted to win the game by trying to run into the teeth of a Texas run defense that has been so much better than its pass defense.

Gundy was thinking 2 things:

IF he could win the game running the ball it was much preferable to and easier than winning with a passing attack. Just old-school football.

Run-first look, especially if successful, sets up the passing attack for effectiveness, whereas inability to run the ball strongly undercuts it. THEN he's one-dimensional, one of Orlando's goals.

Further, Texas' 3 / 3 / 5 is designed more for a pass defense than run defense, and Orlando's proclivities to experiment with Cowboy (I believe it's called) i.e. 3 / 8 defense shows his willingness to put a pass heavy defense with ability to attack the QB with athletic mobile DB / LB hybrids all over the field, while defending the pass.

Gundy picked his poison, but it wasn't necessarily the wrong poison. Texas managed to get 2 interceptions as it was with the limited passing attack. Imagine how may turnovers result from twice as many passes. 4?

Maybe you are correct. But it's easy to draw that conclusion after losing taking the other approach. But maybe you lose by more taking a pass-heavy approach?

We'll never know for certain. Just my 2 cents.

Montrell Estelle and Chris Brown played pretty damn good games. I'm not certain more passes was the winning formula. JMO.

Hook'em Horns!
 
Stop focusing on the few throws he doesn't complete and start focusing on what he is actually doing because we're watching a special player every week.

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AGREE COMPLETELY!

Hook'em Horns!
 
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If we do nothing but look at Duvernay's current projection through 12 games (not including a Big 12 Championship or bowl game), we're looking at a 117-catch season, which includes 1,131 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The school record for receptions in a season is 116, which Jordan Shipley posted in his historic 2009 season. Kwame Cavil's 100-catch season in 1999 ranks No. 2 all-time in school history and no other receiver in burnt orange has ever pulled off more than 92. The school record for receiving touchdowns in a season is Shipley's 13 in 2009.

duvernay_devin_maryland_p1803.jpg


VERY special indeed!

Hook'em.
 
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I think you take the three at that point in the game with 3 yards to make. I spent the whole rest of the game wishing we'd taken the near automatic 3. With both offenses being scoring machines, never take a zero. I understand wanting 7 every time; but that's not actually going to happen so don't throw points away. As the final score shows, that 3 being there would have saved a lot of anxiety in the late part of the game.
 
It would be a hell of a shoot out IMO.
Disagree. As of now their QBs, nix, is not good. Can't hit the broadside of a barn. I think we matchup more than favorably with them and would win by 3 scores. Auburn is overrated. Felt the same way about michigan
 
Sanders scrambling is what hurt us badly Saturday night. That guy is one hell of a runner. Dang fast and has moves. I wonder what Hurts' running style and passing is going to look like against us. They have a ton of weapons. Probably another shoot out.
 
I am in the camp that Herman made a mistake not taking the three points and said so at the time. I think after watching LSU destroy our defense he felt Oklahoma State was going to do similar. I think the season is going to reveal they are an elite offensive team. In that context 7s are so much more valuable than 3s so I am not distraught about it.
To compound the problem the play that was called was way down the list of choices available. Going to Duvernay has been our bread and butter and would have been a better selection.
More disturbing to me was the lack of communication on the last punt fiasco. I am a veteran of the Fred Akers era. We had a situation like that in a game against Georgia which cost us the natty that year. Possession was all that was required. There was no reason to have a longhorn near the ball. Just let them kick and take the ball where ever. Game would be in hand.
As to the theory that Herman is relatively new to the responsibility of making the calls I say bunk. He has plenty of football experience and his good Mensa brain to do the obvious things. He just overlooked the punt situation when it came up.
 
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Belichick would kick a field goal because the nfl game is vastly different game. It has 40 percent fewer snaps per game and far fewer opportunities to score. Belichick would also have a punt returner back too,

What everyone seems to forget is this Texas team is VERY young, the OL is a strength but still it feels underwhelming at times. First receiver off bench is simply an atrocious blocker, secondary acts like it is 19 years old, and theres been a ton of injuries with skill players.

But going for it on 4/3 and muffed punts are the soup du jour. crazy talk.

On 4/3, who snaps the ball into that defense? At this point he should know to call a time out or change the play?
 
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Re Belichick kicking 100-100, Dicker isn’t Viniateri or Gostkowski (SP on both). He HAS missed what seemed to be likely kicks and it wasn’t a chip IIRC. But the hurry up play call sucked.

I will say I was yelling at the TV when we went for 2. Yeah, we got it but that decision seemed indefensible.
Indeed. In context, there is little difference between 12 and 13, but a huge difference between 11 and 12.

I wonder also how long we give TH a pass on game management because he's young, and only in his 5th year as a HC? Sean McVay is a wunderkind, but is only 33; then there's that whole Lincoln Riley thing. At some point, we may be forced to acknowledge that TH may be short on gut instinct under pressure, compared to other young coaches.
 
In years past, doubling OSU's top receiver would have been problematic. This year, their second receivers weren't very scary.
 
Without the two muffed punts we aren’t even talking about game management because the Horns win by 3 TDs.
 
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@Ketchum “His foot is always on the gas, which means he's going to go for it on fourth down, bypass three points in the quest for seven and generally see the game through an aggressive offensive lens.”

How do you explain him choking out our own offense beginning late in the third quarter?
I think the pressure of the moment causes coaches to go into the fetal position sometimes in those moments of control.
 
Re Belichick kicking 100-100, Dicker isn’t Viniateri or Gostkowski (SP on both). He HAS missed what seemed to be likely kicks and it wasn’t a chip IIRC. But the hurry up play call sucked.

I will say I was yelling at the TV when we went for 2. Yeah, we got it but that decision seemed indefensible.
43 yards is basically a chip shot, especially in the conditions he was kicking in.
 
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