The SEC is so weak that I think he's going to keep it.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Not since Colt McCoy in his prime in 2008...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I'm happy and satisfied with that, assuming we play hard (and hopefully we win) a bowl game, but more importantly have a top 10 recruiting class. As the theme of this post shows, we need more studs.
This is a 6-6 team at best. We lose to TCU and OSU. We beat Kansas. We take 2 out of 3 from Baylor, TTU, and WVU. Then we shut up and go to the Alamo Bowl...or wherever.
No, I don't think you do have a full grasp because to have a full grasp is to understand what the rankings mean and I don't think you have a handle on that. To be fair, not many people do.
Yes, coaching matters. Yes, development matters. You are not leading the charge on the importance of that piece of the program. I've written a million columns on it.
Of course, on paper there is enough talent to win. You are arguing with yourself at this point. No one would dispute that Texas should be getting more out of the skill positions.
What I am explaining is that a blanket statement about every area of the team can't really be made and as it relates to the biggest problem in the program (the offensive line), I'm not sure more can be expected to be done.
I would contend that in order to put a line on the field, Derek Warehime is already maxing out what can be expected of players that he is working with. You can't realistically expect more out of Kerstetter. Or Cuney. Or Shackelford. Or even Okafor, who is still a very young player.
Only Okafor fits the billing of the type of recruit you are suggesting Texas has in every area of the program. It's a myth you're somewhat selling.
The Rivals rankings have to be viewed as a projection five years deep. We shouldn't fully be holding players up to the weight of their rankings until they are finished. At the moment, I would suggest most of the Texas starting offensive line IS performing ahead of the expected curve, that is IF you understand how the curve is supposed to work.
The overwhelming majority of the Texas roster falls into a category of recruiting rankings that has much narrower margins than most, including yourself, fully understands.
The difference between a top 75 national prospect and a regular four-star prospect is greater than the difference between a lot four star and a middle lever three star.
That means the difference between the talent pool at Texas and a school like TCU is smaller than most understand, while the difference between what Texas and Clemson currently have is much smaller.
No way you could possibly compare the two situations and think they are the same, yet you seem to believe that.
I don't have time right this second, but anyone can do it. I've spelled out the data required to do so.
maybe, or maybe they win one more game you don't think they will and it gets to 7-5.
Characterizing the backs and the offensive linemen together as equal contributors to the problems with the running game misstates the situation.
If there was any room at all to run, Warren would be gaining yards, and now that Toneil Carter is getting some snaps, he would be, too. Both Warren and Carter got a few carries on the inside zone against Oklahoma, and neither produced anything.
Against San Jose State, one team this offensive line was actually capable of opening holes against, Warren ran for 166 yards, and even Porter had 76. On the first two series against Iowa State, Warren gained 45 yards on his first eight carries, and the first quarter was only half over. And then the coaches quit giving him the ball.
I'm not saying Warren is the next Earl, but he's an excellent back who always gains yards when there are actual openings. And Carter, the back everyone keeps clamoring for, is adding nothing more to the running game than Warren is contributing. I have no doubt, though, that Carter would be creating some excitement if there was actually some room to run.
It's slightly astounding how totally inept this offensive line is at blocking the standard inside/outside zones and powers. Against any defense with a pulse, it is simply incapable of generating a running game. And that's not the fault of the backs.
But I agree this appears to be a season-long problem. Herman ran into a similar situation at UH last year when he found himself with a patchwork offensive line, and he and Applewhite did much the same thing - they abandoned the traditional running game and started throwing more. Duke Catalon took on a greater role as a receiver, much like Warren is doing. Over the last five games of 2016, Catalon had 4, 7, 4, 9, and 7 receptions.
Texas should get some guys back healthy to start next year, but the offensive line still looks to be the biggest problem for the offense going forward.
I agree with most of what you are saying, but we saw last Saturday what it looks like when Texas' 13% OL went up against OU's 20% DL. I'm afraid we will see that against OSU this week. Without the injuries, we should have a good match up there, but not right now. I think OSU's DL is better than Kansas State, Iowa State and San Jose State. Not sure the "State" after Oklahoma means we do well, as they are the best second level state school we will play so far. We are going to have to score more than three touchdowns on offense to beat OSU.
When the offensive line creates room to run, he always produces. That's not silly at all.
The fact that he's not contributing a lot to the running game this season has little to do with him.
Fair enough. Given that there is a direct correlation between recruiting and performance (putting player development aside) AL has finished #1 in recruiting every year for last 5 years and competes for NC every year, it is clear recruiting has an impact. Saban is a great coach but 5 star players make coaches look good. If Texas finished with #2 recruiting class will that make a meaningful impact to how Texas fares in the future? Also QB is most important position so not recruiting strong in this area prior to Sam seems like is a real negative regardless of class rank. Thoughts?
That would mean Texas has about 8-10 national top 75 players. Three more classes like that and you're playing for titles with a stacked roster full of future pros.
It's an obvious point at a very basic level. There's some nuance behind the curtains, though.
Thanks. Maybe this class will be the beginning of that kind of run. Who knows how much longer Saban is going to coach and maybe kids see that is not a long term play.
This may be the smartest thing you have said re: recruiting rankings in quite some time. People get enamored with "star rankings", but the reality is that there isn't THAT much of a difference between the majority of the players Texas signs vs. the majority of the players that other schools recruiting in the State of Texas sign. From there, you have to look at development, program fit, individual desire, etc. to see how an individual player pans out. Considering the upheaval in the program over the last several years, it's not surprising the offense is lagging behind (e.g., it will take some time for the OL to be developed the way Herman wants and fit within what they are trying to do from an overall scheme perspective...the injuries this year have set that timing back for this year, but hopefully the experience gained this year will accelerate their development going forward).
There could be no better story book ending to the MLB season. Town that was devastated by an act of God embraces the boys at MMP. The boys at MMP play their asses off for themselves and all of us and beat, as you said, baseball royalty and win our first World Series. Go 'Stros!!!
I would suggest a different rankings system than the one in place, if it is truly incomprehensible to most of your target audience.
Thanks for the breakdown on Texas’ talent. It matches what I thought my eyes were seeing. And people need to educated themselves about the talent level before they enter into a discussion to declare how bad a job Coach Dumas is doing.
Ladies and gentlemen of Orangebloods, the glass is half full.
I'm not here to sell you on a moral victory. To hell with that.
I'm not here to make you feel better about Texas losing a potentially season-defining game by letting it slip through its fingertips. To hell with that, too.
I'm here today to simply tell you how it is.
When this season started, there was one objective that stood above all others - find a quarterback. Period. After seven seasons of this program floundering at the only position in college football that really matters, the importance of answering this question emphatically, one way or another, couldn't be stressed enough.
You can't stress the importance of this matter enough because the program has remained in a holding pattern for nearly a decade, while the question remains an unsolved mystery.
Shane Buechele or Sam Ehlinger ... it didn't matter which one, but one of the two most definitely needed to emerge.
For the first 11 quarters of this season, the ship was still searching for a captain that wouldn't crash it under his helm, but in the 12th quarter of the season, the switch turned on for the true freshman from Westlake in exactly the way that a number of folks inside the program had been expecting since he arrived earlier in the year.
With 5:14 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, Ehlinger walked onto the field against USC with his team trailing by four points and the future of this program started to take off.
In the last 8+ quarters of action against USC, Kansas State and Oklahoma, here's what Ehlinger has compiled in terms of total offense: 59 of 105 for 803 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and a single interceptions, along with 223 yards rushing.
For those of you keeping score at home, Ehlinger has been rolling up more than 100 yards of total offense per quarter and in the last two games against the Wildcats and Sooners, he was the best and second-best player on the field, respectively.
I'll take it one step further. I'll go so far as to say that regardless of the mistakes that he's making, Ehlinger has produced the best 8+ quarters of continued action against quality teams that this program has seen since Colt McCoy was at his absolute best in October of 2008. With no running game help, a poor offensive line and up-and-down receiving play, the kid from Westlake that arrived exactly 20 years after the Longhorns passed over a kid named Drew Brees (because it was content with the added commitment of a guy named Major Applewhite) is starting to emerge as one of the Big 12's top impact players.
Ehlinger might not be ready for every moment he faces, but he's not afraid of any moment he's been in and this team is feeding off of his confidence.
Yes, this program has a multitude of sins that it commits every week all over the field, but the most important area of need and concern is being answered in an emphatically tremendous way.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room going into this week ...
I've been covering Texas football on a professional level for 23 years and I'm fully convinced that we're looking at the worst group of running backs and healthy offensive linemen I have ever seen in this program.
These dudes make Fozzy Whittaker and Chris Ogbonnaya look like Ricky Williams and Earl Campbell.
If you take out the San Jose State game, Sam Ehlinger has easily outgained Chris Warren and Kyle Porter, despite them having played in five times as many combined games.
The fact that both of these players lack game-breaking ability is one thing, but putting them behind a line that currently features one solid player makes this a perfect storm of horror shows colliding.
With half of the season already in the books, it's probably unlikely that these areas will improve significantly before the end of the season.
No. 3 – Understanding what a recruiting ranking means ...
It has turned into a life-long quest of mine to help everyone understand exactly what a recruiting ranking means, turning a pseudoscience into actual science, at least to the best degree that I can.
I'm unlikely to pull this off, if I'm being honest, but I'm going to continue to try ... in this column, in fact.
At its most simplistic level, here are the things you need to always remember.
a. Historical data shows that national top 75 players are on a night and day level distance apart from the rest of the pack when it comes to developing into difference-making players, the type that go on to be paid for their services after their college careers end.
b. Any prospect that isn't a national top 75-type player is much more likely to not end up as one of these types of players, with the likelihood of it happening decreasing wit every step down in the ranking levels.
It's as simple as these results from the most recently completed NFL Draft cycle, which produced these numbers (Percentage of players per recruiting tier drafted by NFL teams):
Five-star (6.1) prospects: a. 83.16-percent.
High-four star (6.0) prospects: 30.47-percent
Mid-four star (5.9) prospects: 15.79-percent
Low-four star (5.8) prospects: 16.03-percent
High-three star (5.7) prospects: 8.59-percent
Mid-three star (5.6) prospects: 6.57-percent
Low-three star (5.5) prospects: 4.37-percent
High-two star (5.4) prospects: 1.69-percent
Mid-two star (5.3) prospects: 1.35-percent
Low-two star (5.6) prospects: 1.29-percent
Imagine going to Las Vegas and volunteering to play casino games with the same possible payout as other games, but with much longer odds of winning. The goal is to get the best possible payoff with the most-likely chance at earning that return.
That's why recruiting matters. The better you recruit, the more likely you're landing a prospect who develops into an NFL player at twice, three times or four times the rates of other prospects ranked below them.
For a point of reference, let's take a look at the players on the current offensive depth chart at key positions that are struggling and the recruiting rankings/projected NFL upside they brought into the program:
Running backs
Chris Warren: 15.79-percent
Kyle Porter: 16.03-percent
Toneil Carter: 16.03-percent
Offensive linemen
Denzel Okafor - 16.03-percent
Derek Kerstetter - 8.59-percent
Tristan Nickelson - 1.35-percent
Patrick Vahe - 16.03-percent
Terrell Cuney - 6.57-percent
Zach Shackelford - 6.57-percent
The term five stars and four stars gets thrown around so much that it has created a misconception of what that kind of status means. There's not one player in the list of names above that arrived as a truly nationally-elite prospect, which means that none of them arrived with a historically projected type of NFL upside that was as high as 20-percent.
The goal in recruiting is to acquire as many of the highest upside players as possible so that the math works in your favor. If you've got a group of five national top-250 prospects, the national average says that you're probably going to get one NFL player from the group. The programs that win championships find a way to over-perform against the numbers, producing two or three NFL-level players from that same group of five.
What's hurting this program right now is that it not only isn't over-performing, but it is hasn't been hitting the national norms at these positions in a while.
Anwar Richardson wonders if he's supposed to believe that Texas is the unluckiest program in the country, but that's not really the discussion in place because there's nothing unlucky about kids with an 80-percent chance of being JAGs at best actually turning out to be JAGs. This is all about development and being able to create your own luck. Connor Williams is one of these kids that arrived with less than a 20-percent chance based on the numbers to develop into an NFL level player before he leaves college and if he's in the line-up, the Longhorns are essentially batting the national average in terms of expected development.
With this team not over-performing anywhere else on the line, taking his presence out of the line-up puts the Longhorns below the national norm at the moment, with all due respect to the fact that so many of these players are at the early stages of their individual developments. With a kid like Kerstetter, you're asking for a guy that arrived with a historical NFL development value under 10-percent to over-perform against a five-year snapshot within minutes of being on campus.
Ok, I'm going to move on. I hope this discussion made things clearer for at least one of you. One at a time, I'll continue my mission of education.
No. 4 - In case you're wondering ...
These are the following Texas players that arrived with a projected historical NFL development above 30 percent:
* Malik Jefferson (83.16-percent)
* Devin Duvernay (30.47-percent)
* Patrick Hudson (30.47-percent)
* Gary Johnson (30.47-percent)
The idea that this program is loaded with nationally elite talent that is floundering is untrue. This roster isn't anywhere near loaded with the type of talent that Mack Brown's best teams possessed, even if it does play in a conference where 90 percent of the teams would love to be working with UT's set of problems with regards to raw talent.
No. 5 – Going for it on fourth and eight ...
I get it. It's probably what I would have done.
The options in my mind in the moment broke down like this:
a. Attempt a field goal, knowing that even if you made it, you'd still need to force Oklahoma into a three-and-out and then get the ball back and potentially make a another field goal. Considering that making a field goal is a 50-50 proposition, you've got a 25-percent chance (at best) of using this scenario to win the game.
b. Go for it, knowing that you're probably looking at a 30-percent chance of success of converting, with the worst case situation being that you'd need to force an Oklahoma punt and score a touchdown in less than a minute with two timeouts.
c. Squib punt it with Ehlinger inside the 10-yard line and try to force Oklahoma into a three and out with a possible 50-yard drive task in front of you if you can force the three and out.
Honestly, people would have viewed punting from the 28-yard line as borderline crazy, but it's what I probably would have chosen to do, given the options. If I didn't have the guts to do it, I'm leaving the ball in the hands of my best player and not my inconsistent kicker.
No. 6 - Oklahoma State is everything ...
The season is on the line Saturday.
A win over Oklahoma State puts the Longhorns in a great spot to challenge for a spot in the Big 12 title game with five games to go.
A loss means the team dips below .500 with five games to go and qualifying for a bowl is probably a realistic goal.
The Texas staff has to do its best work of the season this week.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: UT has two OL starters next year who are NOT currently on campus?
(Sell) That's wishful, unrealistic thinking in my opinion. This is a young group and the hope has to be that with everyone returning, improvement will come from within.
BUY or SELL: Todd Orlando will FINALLY make the requisite adjustments AND PERSONNEL CHANGES in the Horn secondary to end this devastating repetition of coverage busts leading to killer passing TDs (as happened against Maryland, USC, Kansas St and OU)?
(Sell) The staff doesn't fully trust Davante Davis, at least not as much as Kris Boyd, who it only kind of trusts at this point. I think this staff is going to keep playing the guys it views as the best players and the coaches just have to coach them up to be better players.
BUY or SELL: Despite a 3-3 record, Tom Herman has done a very good job given the injuries sustained and strength of schedule being accounted for as well?
(Sell) He's done a fine job, not very fine. Nothing about 3-3 is very fine.
BUY or SELL: Someone other than Rowland kicks a FG this year?
(Sell) If Tom Herman felt like he had another option, he'd use that option. He's telling you everything you need to know by his actions.
BUY or SELL: My name is Collin Johnson and you cannot stop me coming over the middle from the slot receiver position?
(Sell) Tom Herman believes Johnson is a limited player in his development right now, limited to only a couple of routes from the outside.
BUY or SELL: Texas Tech fires Kliff Kingsbury after the season and he immediately becomes the new Texas offensive coordinator?
(Sell) Tech needs to keep Kliff and hope he eventually develops onto half the guy they want him to be. What's the other option?
BUY or SELL: We make a bowl game, call it now.
(Buy) I'm seeing a 7-5 mark.
BUY or SELL: Texas wins if Sam Ehlinger hits Duvernay in stride for a TD instead of leading him out of bounds?
(Sell) Man, you guys love to nitpick a freshman quarterback with the nit-pickiest things.
BUY or SELL: Texas recruiting turns to the trenches and completes this class with nothing but linemen (other than Cook)?
(Sell) Sorry, man.
No. 8 – If I had a vote that counts ...
1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Georgia
4. TCU
5. Wisconsin
6. Oklahoma
7. Ohio State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Miami
10. USC
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... I'm guessing Clemson fans think their team playing on Friday nights is every bit as Mickey Mouse as Alex Dunlap thinks Texas playing on Thursday night is.
... It's Alabama and everyone else at the moment.
... Arkansas' 2-4 start is borderline erotic.
... What the hell happened to the teams from the state of Washington this week?
... TCU is damn good.
... Just when it looked like Texas Tech was turning a corner as a program, it ran into a wall. Man, I can't imagine what Orangebloods would look like in the aftermath of a loss like the one the Red Raiders had on Saturday. Actually, I can imagine ... what am I talking about?
... The Packers are F'd.
... Leonard Fournette is saving Anwar's fantasy season.
... I expect Sunday to be as it good as it gets for Adrian Peterson. Little bit of fool's gold there, IMO.
... Man, the NFL just is as average as I have ever seen it. I'm not even sure if the league has a very good team, let alone a great one.
... I think my favorite weekend of the NFL season is the week the Cowboys have a bye.
... Shout to my guy Malcolm Brown, the former Texas running back, who the current coaching staff would shank an inmate over if it meant getting him back on the 40 Acres. Not only did Brown record his first touchdown of the season with a recovered blocked punt in the end zone, but he averaged 5.7 yards per carry in support of Todd Gurley in a win for the Rams. Keep grinding, Malcolm.
... Man City not only looks like the best team in the EPL by a decent margin, but that team looks like a Champion's League threat.
... Oh, what I wouldn't give to have Naby Keita on this Liverpool team right now. I feel like Liverpool wins that game if he's pulling the strings in the middle of the field.
... The Astros are going to win the World Series, aren't they? And they'll have done so by going through baseball royalty in the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers/Cubs. Just thinking out loud.
No. 10 – And finally …
Love the commitment of Houston Lamar defensive back D'Shawn Jamison, a guy that I think has a little Nate Vasher in him as a college prospect.
Versatility, playmaking and a belief at all times that he's the best player on the field - Jamison brings all of that to the table.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him play as a true freshman. This program won't be lacking athletes for the foreseeable future.
Here is just one of many threads on the topic
https://texas.forums.rivals.com/threads/we-dont-yet-have-the-talent.331902/page-3#post-9471300
