ain't but one Earl in my book, and that's BIG EARL
.....but you're undoubtedly right...and ketch is right...and i'm right
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Not since Colt McCoy in his prime in 2008...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
ain't but one Earl in my book, and that's BIG EARL
.....but you're undoubtedly right...and ketch is right...and i'm right
As I've stated, Texas is behind the curve. We see agreement there.
The offensive line situation has multiple issues, not just one.The experience of that group, and the lack of it, especially when combined with the quality of projected upside, is the elephant in the room.
Folks are asking young, long-term projects to be way ahead of their natural curve and then getting upset when they can't pull it off.
As for the amount of rotation taking place, I've been vocal about needing to scale that back quite a bit. The position coaches own that IMO.
That happened five days ago and certainly not over the weekend.
I also made a smarmy comment about how some of the USA guys like Tim Howard and Clint Dempsey found ways to be impact players this weekend in MLS action and just didn't add it.
Considering Texas is 5/14 = 36% for the year, which includes numerous 4th and shorts, your 30% for 4th and 8 seems a bit high.
Makes sense.
You guys could also drastically reduce the number of 5 and 4 stars, and more fully utilize the 3, 2, and 1 designations.
I'd certainly not say that Ehlinger has "rocked it out" as a freshman yet. Maybe there is better to come but I'd hold off on proclaiming him the savior until he has an offseason. He's not "rocketing it out" yet. Sam regularly scrambles around for his life because he can't make his progressions quickly. He can't at this stage throw with zip into tighter spaces. And he rarely hits his WRs in stride. The great thing is he's super self aware so he ducks out from his own weaknesses many times and guts out the yardage another way. He missed some pretty huge open looks as well that could have turnt' this last game to a win. He also fumbled away the USC game in OT. So while we worship and say our prayers for finally having what looks like a real QB, I think we have to make the distinction that he's not a great QB right now. He can and should do better at the QB position and its up to the staff to make their money by making him better. I feel much the same about the rest of the team and the coaching staff. We were lucky to have all these guys working so hard this summer and into the fall. They deserve credit for showing the toughness severely lacking in most UT team's I've watched in the last 30-40 years. It's nice to have a team I can proud of, even at 3-3.
By the way, I can only imagine what Herman could have done with the talent over at LSU had he not agreed to join with our sorry lot of whiners.
You serious Clark? That is not a nit. He made a poor throw on an easy pass to a wide open guy. Quarterbacking 101 says lead the WR to the inside. The misfire ultimately cost us 7 points in a close game.
Can someone PLEASE ask Herman/Beck why (after looking the best out of the Wildcat in week 1) LJH isn’t being used in the Wildcat when we have a running game that’s beyond horrendous ?!!!!?
Try something else every now-&-then. Especially something that resulted in the best run all year, imo.
Also, it was reported in some practice reports last season that he was the best RB behind Foreman and was impressive out of the backfield (a position he played in HS).
I would say use Heard in the Wildcat; however, I don’t think he’s a better runner than LJH and they won’t let him throw the ball so that’s a non-starter .
Every time Ketch does one of these my mind races back to 2010-2013. Last time I questioned why this doesn't work for Texas he agreed it doesn't apply here like it does across the nation. The Texas Corollary
Name Pos Rating
Jordan Hicks LB 6.1
Jackson Jeffcoat DE 6.1
Tevin Jackson LB 6
Reggie Wilson DE 6
Mike Davis WR 6
Darius White WR 6
Taylor Bible DT 5.9
Trey Hopkins OL 5.9
Connor Wood QB 5.9
Dominic Espinosa OL 5.9
Chris Jones WR 5.9
Ashton Dorsey DT 5.9
Malcolm Brown RB 6.1
Steve Edmond LB 6
Jaxon Shipley WR 5.9
Quandre Diggs DB 5.9
Malcom Brown DT 6.1
Johnathan Gray RB 6.1
Cayleb Jones WR 6
Kendall Sanders ATH 6
Curtis Riser OL 5.9
Kennedy Estelle OL 5.9
Kent Perkins OL 6
Darius James OL 6
Jake Raulerson DE 5.9
Jake Oliver WR 5.9
Deoundrei Davis LB 5.9
Antwuan Davis DB 5.9
Name Pos Rating
Jordan Hicks LB 6.1
Jackson Jeffcoat DE 6.1
Tevin Jackson LB 6
Reggie Wilson DE 6
Mike Davis WR 6
Darius White WR 6
Taylor Bible DT 5.9
Trey Hopkins OL 5.9
Connor Wood QB 5.9
Dominic Espinosa OL 5.9
Chris Jones WR 5.9
Ashton Dorsey DT 5.9
Malcolm Brown RB 6.1
Steve Edmond LB 6
Jaxon Shipley WR 5.9
Quandre Diggs DB 5.9
Malcom Brown DT 6.1
Johnathan Gray RB 6.1
Cayleb Jones WR 6
Kendall Sanders ATH 6
Curtis Riser OL 5.9
Kennedy Estelle OL 5.9
Kent Perkins OL 6
Darius James OL 6
Jake Raulerson DE 5.9
Jake Oliver WR 5.9
Deoundrei Davis LB 5.9
Antwuan Davis DB 5.9
Wrong, wrong, wrong! Even using your flawed odds (I know Rowland's season record), going for it on 4th and 8 and scoring is way worse than 1-4. Take the points and we would have had a 51-49 shot at winning the game. Leave it to a liberal to not take the odds
Ketch,
The players don’t have to be nfl caliber players to win games or compete for college conference champions. People need to stop hiding behind lack of talent. OSU has had a top shelf offense just about every year Gundy has been there and his roster is full of 2 and 3 stars. Tcu has had some really good teams with talent that is well below Texas. Say what you want but coaching kids up can make a team relevant in any conference. What kind of talent did Mangino have at Kansas when they went to a BCS game? National championships is a different story but if you can coach them up 9-10 wins can be done with less talent than Texas has. Put some 9-10 win seasons together and it becomes a lot easier to get the high 4 star and 5 star kids. Say what you want but when Herman was hired the offense was not supposed to be a question. He’s even said the offense was gonna be good this year.
The players don’t have to be nfl caliber players to win games or compete for college conference champions. People need to stop hiding behind lack of talent. OSU has had a top shelf offense just about every year Gundy has been there and his roster is full of 2 and 3 stars. Tcu has had some really good teams with talent that is well below Texas. Say what you want but coaching kids up can make a team relevant in any conference. What kind of talent did Mangino have at Kansas when they went to a BCS game? National championships is a different story but if you can coach them up 9-10 wins can be done with less talent than Texas has. Put some 9-10 win seasons together and it becomes a lot easier to get the high 4 star and 5 star kids. Say what you want but when Herman was hired the offense was not supposed to be a question. He’s even said the offense was gonna be good this year.
Yup - not sure @Ketchum 's analysis is that relevant. It shows we are gonna have a hard time winning a championship and that we don't have the talent like Mack's best years. However - we are something like 18-25 in the last 4 seasons. In how many of those games did our opponent have better recruiting classes/talent?5 or 6?
I'd like see more creativity and much better execution. I think that we need to make a more concerted effort to get the ball to playmakers like Lil Jordan, Reggie Hemphill, and Collin Johnson. Also need to continue to utilize our short passing game to backs out of the backfield.
IMO. Still, I'm not getting $5 mil to find the answers.
Perhaps, but in general I view that play at about 30-percent. I'd be careful with using such a small sample size to determine percentages.
The data doesn't show that reducing the volume changes anything. It does however show that a 6.0 four-star should never be included in the same discussion with other four stars.
Well, the old adage is the p,Ayers execute. The coaches can’t block for Sam, get separation for Colin and make him hold on to the balls that are thrown his way. And with out OLine issues, I think you are expecting caviar on a tuna budget right now.
Until we have an OLine that can block, running backs that can get through gaps created by said O line, hope is what we got.
Watch the video in Dustin’s column - the line opened a huge hole inside, Warren fails to see it and runs outside. The running backs own a chunk of this too.
I don't buy the NFL focused statistical analysis regarding recruiting as it relates to Texas putting a winning college team on the field in your analysis. If virtually every recruiting class is top 15 - 20, then you shouldn't be putting a team on the field that struggles to break .500 year after year.
When Ohio St. or Alabama has ten kids drafted and we have zero or one drafted, does that mean that you can look back on those recruiting classes and say that they had 10 kids sign that were better than all but one of our signees? That is never the way it looks or is presented on signing day.
Our failure for the most part of the past 8 years has occurred on the 40 acres, not on the recruiting trail.
When Ohio St. or Alabama has ten kids drafted and we have zero or one drafted, does that mean that you can look back on those recruiting classes and say that they had 10 kids sign that were better than all but one of our signees? That is never the way it looks or is presented on signing day.
Our failure for the most part of the past 8 years has occurred on the 40 acres, not on the recruiting trail.
Ehlinger is playing by default. he might be the real deal , it's good to know we have Buechele ready to go, lets be honest, TH job won't be easy. Charlie inherited a mess and the cake is not ready to bake.
That's just a very narrow view of a topic that has been discussed in much more detailed terms with tentacles going in vast directions.
There's not just one issue. It's more like a dozen.
Yes, not having more true difference makers from the recruiting world is one of them.
For the most part you can always throw out an a TX/OX as game as predicable. Too many times Texas should not one won Or lost. Same for OU. I will never get the blowouts on Mach brown watch. That drove me crazy.
Coaching
Ladies and gentlemen of Orangebloods, the glass is half full.
I'm not here to sell you on a moral victory. To hell with that.
I'm not here to make you feel better about Texas losing a potentially season-defining game by letting it slip through its fingertips. To hell with that, too.
I'm here today to simply tell you how it is.
When this season started, there was one objective that stood above all others - find a quarterback. Period. After seven seasons of this program floundering at the only position in college football that really matters, the importance of answering this question emphatically, one way or another, couldn't be stressed enough.
You can't stress the importance of this matter enough because the program has remained in a holding pattern for nearly a decade, while the question remains an unsolved mystery.
Shane Buechele or Sam Ehlinger ... it didn't matter which one, but one of the two most definitely needed to emerge.
For the first 11 quarters of this season, the ship was still searching for a captain that wouldn't crash it under his helm, but in the 12th quarter of the season, the switch turned on for the true freshman from Westlake in exactly the way that a number of folks inside the program had been expecting since he arrived earlier in the year.
With 5:14 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, Ehlinger walked onto the field against USC with his team trailing by four points and the future of this program started to take off.
In the last 8+ quarters of action against USC, Kansas State and Oklahoma, here's what Ehlinger has compiled in terms of total offense: 59 of 105 for 803 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and a single interceptions, along with 223 yards rushing.
For those of you keeping score at home, Ehlinger has been rolling up more than 100 yards of total offense per quarter and in the last two games against the Wildcats and Sooners, he was the best and second-best player on the field, respectively.
I'll take it one step further. I'll go so far as to say that regardless of the mistakes that he's making, Ehlinger has produced the best 8+ quarters of continued action against quality teams that this program has seen since Colt McCoy was at his absolute best in October of 2008. With no running game help, a poor offensive line and up-and-down receiving play, the kid from Westlake that arrived exactly 20 years after the Longhorns passed over a kid named Drew Brees (because it was content with the added commitment of a guy named Major Applewhite) is starting to emerge as one of the Big 12's top impact players.
Ehlinger might not be ready for every moment he faces, but he's not afraid of any moment he's been in and this team is feeding off of his confidence.
Yes, this program has a multitude of sins that it commits every week all over the field, but the most important area of need and concern is being answered in an emphatically tremendous way.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room going into this week ...
I've been covering Texas football on a professional level for 23 years and I'm fully convinced that we're looking at the worst group of running backs and healthy offensive linemen I have ever seen in this program.
These dudes make Fozzy Whittaker and Chris Ogbonnaya look like Ricky Williams and Earl Campbell.
If you take out the San Jose State game, Sam Ehlinger has easily outgained Chris Warren and Kyle Porter, despite them having played in five times as many combined games.
The fact that both of these players lack game-breaking ability is one thing, but putting them behind a line that currently features one solid player makes this a perfect storm of horror shows colliding.
With half of the season already in the books, it's probably unlikely that these areas will improve significantly before the end of the season.
No. 3 – Understanding what a recruiting ranking means ...
It has turned into a life-long quest of mine to help everyone understand exactly what a recruiting ranking means, turning a pseudoscience into actual science, at least to the best degree that I can.
I'm unlikely to pull this off, if I'm being honest, but I'm going to continue to try ... in this column, in fact.
At its most simplistic level, here are the things you need to always remember.
a. Historical data shows that national top 75 players are on a night and day level distance apart from the rest of the pack when it comes to developing into difference-making players, the type that go on to be paid for their services after their college careers end.
b. Any prospect that isn't a national top 75-type player is much more likely to not end up as one of these types of players, with the likelihood of it happening decreasing wit every step down in the ranking levels.
It's as simple as these results from the most recently completed NFL Draft cycle, which produced these numbers (Percentage of players per recruiting tier drafted by NFL teams):
Five-star (6.1) prospects: a. 83.16-percent.
High-four star (6.0) prospects: 30.47-percent
Mid-four star (5.9) prospects: 15.79-percent
Low-four star (5.8) prospects: 16.03-percent
High-three star (5.7) prospects: 8.59-percent
Mid-three star (5.6) prospects: 6.57-percent
Low-three star (5.5) prospects: 4.37-percent
High-two star (5.4) prospects: 1.69-percent
Mid-two star (5.3) prospects: 1.35-percent
Low-two star (5.6) prospects: 1.29-percent
Imagine going to Las Vegas and volunteering to play casino games with the same possible payout as other games, but with much longer odds of winning. The goal is to get the best possible payoff with the most-likely chance at earning that return.
That's why recruiting matters. The better you recruit, the more likely you're landing a prospect who develops into an NFL player at twice, three times or four times the rates of other prospects ranked below them.
For a point of reference, let's take a look at the players on the current offensive depth chart at key positions that are struggling and the recruiting rankings/projected NFL upside they brought into the program:
Running backs
Chris Warren: 15.79-percent
Kyle Porter: 16.03-percent
Toneil Carter: 16.03-percent
Offensive linemen
Denzel Okafor - 16.03-percent
Derek Kerstetter - 8.59-percent
Tristan Nickelson - 1.35-percent
Patrick Vahe - 16.03-percent
Terrell Cuney - 6.57-percent
Zach Shackelford - 6.57-percent
The term five stars and four stars gets thrown around so much that it has created a misconception of what that kind of status means. There's not one player in the list of names above that arrived as a truly nationally-elite prospect, which means that none of them arrived with a historically projected type of NFL upside that was as high as 20-percent.
The goal in recruiting is to acquire as many of the highest upside players as possible so that the math works in your favor. If you've got a group of five national top-250 prospects, the national average says that you're probably going to get one NFL player from the group. The programs that win championships find a way to over-perform against the numbers, producing two or three NFL-level players from that same group of five.
What's hurting this program right now is that it not only isn't over-performing, but it is hasn't been hitting the national norms at these positions in a while.
Anwar Richardson wonders if he's supposed to believe that Texas is the unluckiest program in the country, but that's not really the discussion in place because there's nothing unlucky about kids with an 80-percent chance of being JAGs at best actually turning out to be JAGs. This is all about development and being able to create your own luck. Connor Williams is one of these kids that arrived with less than a 20-percent chance based on the numbers to develop into an NFL level player before he leaves college and if he's in the line-up, the Longhorns are essentially batting the national average in terms of expected development.
With this team not over-performing anywhere else on the line, taking his presence out of the line-up puts the Longhorns below the national norm at the moment, with all due respect to the fact that so many of these players are at the early stages of their individual developments. With a kid like Kerstetter, you're asking for a guy that arrived with a historical NFL development value under 10-percent to over-perform against a five-year snapshot within minutes of being on campus.
Ok, I'm going to move on. I hope this discussion made things clearer for at least one of you. One at a time, I'll continue my mission of education.
No. 4 - In case you're wondering ...
These are the following Texas players that arrived with a projected historical NFL development above 30 percent:
* Malik Jefferson (83.16-percent)
* Devin Duvernay (30.47-percent)
* Patrick Hudson (30.47-percent)
* Gary Johnson (30.47-percent)
The idea that this program is loaded with nationally elite talent that is floundering is untrue. This roster isn't anywhere near loaded with the type of talent that Mack Brown's best teams possessed, even if it does play in a conference where 90 percent of the teams would love to be working with UT's set of problems with regards to raw talent.
No. 5 – Going for it on fourth and eight ...
I get it. It's probably what I would have done.
The options in my mind in the moment broke down like this:
a. Attempt a field goal, knowing that even if you made it, you'd still need to force Oklahoma into a three-and-out and then get the ball back and potentially make a another field goal. Considering that making a field goal is a 50-50 proposition, you've got a 25-percent chance (at best) of using this scenario to win the game.
b. Go for it, knowing that you're probably looking at a 30-percent chance of success of converting, with the worst case situation being that you'd need to force an Oklahoma punt and score a touchdown in less than a minute with two timeouts.
c. Squib punt it with Ehlinger inside the 10-yard line and try to force Oklahoma into a three and out with a possible 50-yard drive task in front of you if you can force the three and out.
Honestly, people would have viewed punting from the 28-yard line as borderline crazy, but it's what I probably would have chosen to do, given the options. If I didn't have the guts to do it, I'm leaving the ball in the hands of my best player and not my inconsistent kicker.
No. 6 - Oklahoma State is everything ...
The season is on the line Saturday.
A win over Oklahoma State puts the Longhorns in a great spot to challenge for a spot in the Big 12 title game with five games to go.
A loss means the team dips below .500 with five games to go and qualifying for a bowl is probably a realistic goal.
The Texas staff has to do its best work of the season this week.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: UT has two OL starters next year who are NOT currently on campus?
(Sell) That's wishful, unrealistic thinking in my opinion. This is a young group and the hope has to be that with everyone returning, improvement will come from within.
BUY or SELL: Todd Orlando will FINALLY make the requisite adjustments AND PERSONNEL CHANGES in the Horn secondary to end this devastating repetition of coverage busts leading to killer passing TDs (as happened against Maryland, USC, Kansas St and OU)?
(Sell) The staff doesn't fully trust Davante Davis, at least not as much as Kris Boyd, who it only kind of trusts at this point. I think this staff is going to keep playing the guys it views as the best players and the coaches just have to coach them up to be better players.
BUY or SELL: Despite a 3-3 record, Tom Herman has done a very good job given the injuries sustained and strength of schedule being accounted for as well?
(Sell) He's done a fine job, not very fine. Nothing about 3-3 is very fine.
BUY or SELL: Someone other than Rowland kicks a FG this year?
(Sell) If Tom Herman felt like he had another option, he'd use that option. He's telling you everything you need to know by his actions.
BUY or SELL: My name is Collin Johnson and you cannot stop me coming over the middle from the slot receiver position?
(Sell) Tom Herman believes Johnson is a limited player in his development right now, limited to only a couple of routes from the outside.
BUY or SELL: Texas Tech fires Kliff Kingsbury after the season and he immediately becomes the new Texas offensive coordinator?
(Sell) Tech needs to keep Kliff and hope he eventually develops onto half the guy they want him to be. What's the other option?
BUY or SELL: We make a bowl game, call it now.
(Buy) I'm seeing a 7-5 mark.
BUY or SELL: Texas wins if Sam Ehlinger hits Duvernay in stride for a TD instead of leading him out of bounds?
(Sell) Man, you guys love to nitpick a freshman quarterback with the nit-pickiest things.
BUY or SELL: Texas recruiting turns to the trenches and completes this class with nothing but linemen (other than Cook)?
(Sell) Sorry, man.
No. 8 – If I had a vote that counts ...
1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Georgia
4. TCU
5. Wisconsin
6. Oklahoma
7. Ohio State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Miami
10. USC
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... I'm guessing Clemson fans think their team playing on Friday nights is every bit as Mickey Mouse as Alex Dunlap thinks Texas playing on Thursday night is.
... It's Alabama and everyone else at the moment.
... Arkansas' 2-4 start is borderline erotic.
... What the hell happened to the teams from the state of Washington this week?
... TCU is damn good.
... Just when it looked like Texas Tech was turning a corner as a program, it ran into a wall. Man, I can't imagine what Orangebloods would look like in the aftermath of a loss like the one the Red Raiders had on Saturday. Actually, I can imagine ... what am I talking about?
... The Packers are F'd.
... Leonard Fournette is saving Anwar's fantasy season.
... I expect Sunday to be as it good as it gets for Adrian Peterson. Little bit of fool's gold there, IMO.
... Man, the NFL just is as average as I have ever seen it. I'm not even sure if the league has a very good team, let alone a great one.
... I think my favorite weekend of the NFL season is the week the Cowboys have a bye.
... Shout to my guy Malcolm Brown, the former Texas running back, who the current coaching staff would shank an inmate over if it meant getting him back on the 40 Acres. Not only did Brown record his first touchdown of the season with a recovered blocked punt in the end zone, but he averaged 5.7 yards per carry in support of Todd Gurley in a win for the Rams. Keep grinding, Malcolm.
... Man City not only looks like the best team in the EPL by a decent margin, but that team looks like a Champion's League threat.
... Oh, what I wouldn't give to have Naby Keita on this Liverpool team right now. I feel like Liverpool wins that game if he's pulling the strings in the middle of the field.
... The Astros are going to win the World Series, aren't they? And they'll have done so by going through baseball royalty in the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers/Cubs. Just thinking out loud.
No. 10 – And finally …
Love the commitment of Houston Lamar defensive back D'Shawn Jamison, a guy that I think has a little Nate Vasher in him as a college prospect.
Versatility, playmaking and a belief at all times that he's the best player on the field - Jamison brings all of that to the table.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him play as a true freshman. This program won't be lacking athletes for the foreseeable future.
Well, Ketch considering we have the highest composite recruiting rankings in the Big 12 tells us what? Ketch, I'm sorry but that was a spin job of epic proportions. You could do the same with any other program with same results save Bama and tOSU. You are showing the percentages of whether a kid will make it in the NFL as your measuring stick? Wow, now go do that with every other program besides Bama. Then get back to me with said results.
There is enough talent on this team to have won every game we have played. The only team we've played that we were lower than in composite recruiting rankings was USC and that was only by 2 composite points. There is no doubt that injuries have cost us dearly this season, but every team has those as well. We have to learn how to win these close games. We have issues that are very solvable but better get solved quick or we're staring at another lousy season.
There is enough talent on this team to have won every game we have played. The only team we've played that we were lower than in composite recruiting rankings was USC and that was only by 2 composite points. There is no doubt that injuries have cost us dearly this season, but every team has those as well. We have to learn how to win these close games. We have issues that are very solvable but better get solved quick or we're staring at another lousy season.
I’d have kicked:
- the wind in the face wasn’t huge
- Josh has the leg (he’s made a 49 yarder, most kickoffs out of the end zone)
- Josh drilled the 34 yarder right before half time
- Texas has been TERRIBLE on 4th and 2 or more, now 0 for 6 when foregoing a FG or extra point
- the probability of OU getting another FG is big, which would put Texas down 8
- Coach Herman has really hurt his team (and his kicker’s confidence) with his anti-FG attitude
Texas is going to need a few big FG’s, probably a game-winner to even finish 4-2...
