Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Permission to dream big?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Anyone
So much this. People predicting 3 SEC teams are totally forgetting the help they get from playing weak teams mid season. Every team that has a loss will be in conference, and like you said, another loss comes in the conference championship game.
So much this. People predicting 3 SEC teams are totally forgetting the help they get from playing weak teams mid season. Every team that has a loss will be in conference, and like you said, another loss comes in the conference championship game.
Texas should batter Iowa State.
Something about that game and the fact that I think at least one home game this season is going to be a roller coaster makes me somewhat cautious with it.
Max Baer Jr was so great in that role. Even when he was in the background of the scene, he was constantly working with facial expressions.
If all the big 12 coaches got together and could draft a whole teams roster from the big 12, I bet most coaches would take the Texas roster over every other roster, including Oklahoma‘s considering our qb situation.
And it’s not even close.
point blank, anything less than 8-2 is a failure. 8-2 just bides time. It’s time for Herman to put his big boy pants on and go 9-1 or 10-0.
And it’s not even close.
point blank, anything less than 8-2 is a failure. 8-2 just bides time. It’s time for Herman to put his big boy pants on and go 9-1 or 10-0.
Knock on wood, we're a mere five days and change until the 2020 Texas football team kicks off its season and I'm going to make a confession...
I don't know what to tell you.
As the sand has passed through the hour glass in recent weeks, I'm intrigued by the reality that I find myself so unsure about the 2020 Texas Longhorns, while so many others seem to certain about the upcoming season.
"7-3 would be disaster!"
"8-2 is the minimum bar!"
"We should win every game."
I see the constant stream of confidence and I wonder if we're all watching the same football program.
From my vantage point, there are two things that I'm confident that I know about this year's Longhorns:
a. The program has been stuck in manure for the last decade and is literally coming off a 7-5 season that led to the removal of 70-percent of Tom Herman's coaching staff.
b. I don't have a great feeling for what to expect.
That's it. That's my list.
I suppose I know a few more things. I know Teras lost four Big 12 games in 2019, TCU drop-kicked the Longhorns upside the head for the fifth time in six years and Baylor won by two touchdowns and led 21-3 going into the fourth quarter. Oh, and Kansas nearly beat Texas at DKR.
Yeah yeah, yeah... Texas hung with LSU and Oklahoma for four quarters if you're into moral victories defining your hope. The Longhorns also beat the hell out of Utah so bad in the bowl game that it became impossible to not wonder if Herman should fire a coach every week.
The reason I'm beyond the point of exasperation is that we've seen Texas flash over the course of the last decade, and I have no doubt they'll flash again at various points in 2020.
Yet, this has been a program that has taken two steps forward and 2.5 steps back for pretty much an entire decade and while everyone makes grand predictions about the upcoming season, all I want to know is this...
What the hell have you guys seen that makes you believe this season is the moment when Texas football draws a line in the sand and declares, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more!"
Believe me, I want to believe. I'm like a 10-year old kid wanting to believe in Santa, that's how bad I want to believe. In case you haven't noticed, we're in a pandemic and a bad-ass Texas football team would be one hell of a good thing for business, so when I tell you that I want to believe, know that with every piece of my soul I'd wish Texas to a 10-0 season and into the playoff if I could.
But, I'm the guy that gave you permission to dream big in 2016. Remember that? How'd that go?
No, the truth of the matter is that we've seen one okey-doke after another starting with the 2010 season and I've jumped on that hook, line and sinker enough times that I'm going to wait until I see that worm talking to a family member before I go for a bite again without caution.
What I worry about with this team is that it's been sucked down into being average for so long that it truly doesn't know how to get out of it. It's a cycle that plagued the Longhorns from the mid-80s through the early portion of Mack Brown's tenure. Mediocrity has become muscle-memory around this program. Does it have the steel that a guy like Vince Young gave it to pull itself out of the Oklahoma domination 15 years ago? Is that who Sam is?
Until I see a weekly level of anger and unbreakable resolution from the boys in burnt orange, you'll forgive me if I don't see 7-3 as unrealistic when it represents more than this program has regularly accomplished since Charlie Sheen was the highest-paid actor on television.
Yeah, man. It's been that long.
No. 2 - Falling off the deep end ...
If you missed it on Friday, I took the first step towards the deep end of the pool when I released the first stream of data related to the historical output of the state's top-ranked offensive linemen in the Rivals.com rankings from 2002-2015.
Basically, the data confirmed what you already likely knew, which is the Lone Star State and (specifically) the Texas program perform well-below the national norms.
But, how much under the national norms?
That question steered me into some deep waters this weekend, as I set out to provide context to the UT offensive line development problem by being able to directly inspect it with the proper amount of context.
So, I not only researched the state of Texas, but I also specifically broke down the numbers in California and Florida. When that felt like it wasn't enough, I charted the success rates of each area of the country. Finally, I narrowed my focus to schools like Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma.
By the time I was done with the research this weekend, I had reviewed the careers of more than 600 of the highest ranked offensive linemen in the country among the high school ranks, including every four- or five-star line prospect from 2002-2015.
Before I take you head-first into the data, I want to explain why I'm using the NFL drafted data points for emphasis.
1. None of this is subjective. In terms of compiling data, it's either a yes or no. There's no debate. The system is the purest means of evaluating the development of talent at the end of each player's cycle.
2. While there are occasional exceptions to the rule, this method of measurement leaves out very few top-level college players, which means that it ends up providing data for us that is generally strong enough to not be impacted drastically with a smattering anomalies.
3. This is not the end-all of useful data, but what it does allow for us to do to is stick an actual numerical value on recruiting rankings and their individual worth.
I'm all ears if anyone has any better ideas.
No. 3 - The Longhorns vs. the national numbers ...
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players being drafted in the NFL.
* 46.3% (25 of 54) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 34.2% (28 of 82) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 23.0% (26 of 113) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 14.7% (50 of 341) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 22.2% (2 of 9) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 35.7% (5 of 14) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 6.7% (1 of 15) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 21.1% (8 of 38) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to Longhorns from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 33.3% (1 of 3) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 14.3% (1 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 0.0% (0 of 6) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 8.3% (1 of 12) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
What's interesting about the data as it relates to the state of Texas is how much the numbers in prove in a couple of areas when you pull the Longhorns out of the development equation.
* 57.1% (4 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 11.1% (1 of 9) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 26.9% (7 of 26) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 4 - Comparing Texas vs. other programs ...
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Florida 42.1% (8 of 19)
Alabama 37.5% (9 of 24)
Miami 33.3% (6 of 18)
Georgia 31.3% (5 of 16)
Ohio State 30.4% (7 of 23)
USC 29.6% (8 of 27)
Oklahoma 26.3% (5 of 19)
Auburn 25% (6 of 24)
Michigan 19.2% (5 of 26)
LSU 15.4% (4 of 26)
Texas 10.7% (3 of 28)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Auburn 83.3% (5 of 6)
Alabama 60.0% (6 of 10)
Miami 50.0% (2 of 4)
USC 40.0% (6 of 15)
Georgia 40.0% (2 of 5)
Florida 37.5% (3 of 8)
Ohio State 33.3% (3 of 9)
LSU 25.0% (1 of 4)
Texas 20.0% (2 of 10)
Michigan 14.3% (1 of 7)
Oklahoma 0.0% (0 of 2)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid- and low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Florida 45.5% (5 of 11)
Oklahoma 29.4% (5 of 17)
Miami 28.9% (4 of 14)
Ohio State 28.6% (4 of 14)
Georgia 25.0% (3 of 12)
Alabama 21.4% (3 of 14)
Michigan 21.1% (4 of 19)
USC 16.7% (2 of 12)
LSU 13.6% (3 of 22)
Auburn 5.6% (1 of 18)
Texas 5.6% (1 of 18)
A couple of notes worth mentioning...
* Five of the 6 five-stars Alabama has recruited from 2002-2015 have been drafted. Four of the six have been first round picks and the other was selected in the second round.
* Not to be completely outdone, Auburn has had 5 of the 6 highest-rated prospects in program history from 2002-2015 drafted by NFL teams.
* Oklahoma is 0 for 4 with the four-highest rated linemen in program history from 2002-2015, but have made some money in that low four-star tier. In fact, Oklahoma developed more low-four-star linemen in its 2015 recruiting class into drafted players than Texas had in all of those years.
* No program in the country has signed more five and four star high school offensive line prospects between 2002-2015 than Texas (28).
No. 5 - The regions with the most talent ...
This might be the most interesting section of data for my money.
In hopes of determining which areas of the country are developing the best talent, I did breakdowns on the following states/regions of the country.
* Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Washington DC and West Virgnia
* Midwest (Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota
* Southeast (Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee)
* West (California, Oregon,. Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada and Alaska)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five-star prospects from 2002-2015:
West 66.7% (8 of 12)
Southeast 50.0% (7 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 50% (6 of 12)
Midwest 28.6% (2 of 7)
Texas 22.2 (2 of 9)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
West 45.5% (5 of 11)
Texas 35.7% (5 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 35% (7 of 20)
Southeast 25.0% (4 of 16)
Midwest 21.4% (3 of 14)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Mid-Atlantic 38.9% (7 of 18)
Southeast 33.3% (13 of 39)
Midwest 20.0% (3 of 15)
'West 8.3% (2 of 24)
Texas 6.7% (1 of 15)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Midwest 17.3% (9 of 52)
Texas 16.2% (6 of 37)
'West 13.9% (10 of 72)
Southeast 13.6% (14 of 103)
Mid-Atlantic 13.4% (9 of 67)
So, what would be my 3-step plan to rebuilding the planning along the offensive line recruiting if I was basing it on this data.
1. Heavily target the elite offensive line talent out West.
2. Emphasize building some in-roads into a very talented and insanely underrated Mid-Atlantic region.
3. Once you get beyond, the elite of the elite prospects in the West and Mid-Atlantic, there's not much reason to leave the state of Texas for low-four star talent and below. There's no real regional advantage to be found the deeper you go into the talent pool.
No. 6 - Scattershooting on Longhorns football ...
... Does the entire season come down to how well Denzel Okafor and Christian Jones come together on the right side of the offensive line? That might be a little much, but there's no question that one of the subplots to this season is just how well that side of the line can play.
... The closer the season gets, the more I'm starting to think Roschon Johnson has been marginalized because of the looming Bijan Robinson shadow, but don't be shocked if he ends up building off of last season's start at running back with a year that takes a back seat to few on this roster.
... Brennan Eagles showing up needing to be pushed into game shape is beyond disappointment. Come on, Brennan!
... I sure would like to have heard Jordan Whittington's name a little more in camp.
... I'm not sure Whittington really pushed Jake Smith in camp. Buy all the Jake Smith stock you can.
... Where's the pass rush coming from outside of Joseph Ossai? I don't know.
... I think Alfred Collins might be starting by the Oklahoma game.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I need to see it to believe it.
(Sell) It's the first game. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas is in the 30s and UTEP scores a couple of touchdowns. Texas just needs to get the game played, win and show some improvement.
(Sell)
(Sell) I'm just not sure Texas is going to have a chance to break in Card this year unless there's an injury.
(Buy) If you set it at 3.5, I might take the under, though.
(Sell) I think there's a zero-percent chance Sam accounts for 45+ touchdowns in 10 games.
(Buy) I bet it's better than people think. Gonna be a lot of people dying to scream after the job 2020 has done on us.
(Sell) I need to see it to believe it. It just feels like hype right now.
(Sell) At least one game gets cancelled or postponed. Just a guess.
(Sell) Not being last might as well be the same as being first for Bob.
(Sell) I've watched a lot of hoops this week.
(Sell) I have to believe Rattler finishes as a Top 2 quarterback.
(Sell) It's not impossible, but I'll say they get two in as of right now.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... I weirdly enjoyed the SMU/Texas State game. I can't explain why other than to say... FOOTBALL!
... Bring on mighty undefeated UTEP! Seriously, having played a game is a nice little advantage for UTEP going into this game.
... BYU/Navy has a chance to be a fun little college football game on Monday.
... My fantasy draft is tomorrow and I don't have any idea what I plan to do with the 8th pick.
... Isn't Brandon Carr a little old to be on the Dallas practice squad? I guess not.
... DeShaun Watson's contract was just a not nail in the coffin in the idea that Dallas won't eventually pay Dak prescott every dime he wants.
... Mitch Trubisky is the starting quarterback in Chicago. Have fun, Bears fans.
... Of course, that happened to Novak Djokovic. Good grief.
... I might be the only person who believes this, but Leo Messi's problems are all Leo Messi's fault. When you're worth over 100 million per year as a brand and you don't have elite lawyers advising you, any contract issue is one person and one person's fault only.
... If Gini Wijnaldum has played his last game for Liverpool, he'll leave as a legend of the club and a key piece of everything the club has accomplished over the last few seasons. Consider me sad, as he'll be the first true critical piece of the last few seasons to move on if he heads to Barcelona. Excuse me while I tear up.
No. 9 - The List: Best Yacht Rock Songs ...
40 years ago this week, Christopher Cross topped the Billboard rankings with the iconic "Sailing".
With that in. mind, I give you my Top 10 Yacht Rock songs of all-time.
10. Baby Come Back (Player)
9. How Much I Feel (Ambrosia)
8. Arthur's Theme (Christopher Cross)
7. What a Fool Believes (Doobie Brothers)
6. This Is It (Kenny Loggins)
5. Rosanna (Toto)
4. Hey Nineteen (Steely Dan)
3. Africa (Toto)
2. Waiting for a Girl Like You (Foreigner)
1. Saling (Christopher Cross)
No.10 - And finally...
7-3.
That's my season prediction.
here is the situation and where I think you’re right: the program isn’t back at a level where one can rationally expect 10 wins each year. We all agree there, I think. The formula for 10 wins was: usually lose to OU and then drop one more game we shouldn’t have lost. We took care of biz in the other game.
I don’t think we’re back at that level consistently, but this year SHOULD be above the mean. We have experienced talent everywhere and hopefully solved some issues in terms of scheme. Injury are a wildcard.
O/U should be 8 wins.
Then we need to make sure we have the proper coaching staff in place.
Covid is only going to make the gap between haves and have nots wider. If we don’t take advantage of this year, we have no one to blame but our leadership.
barring a Sam Ehlinger injury, I’ll predict 9-1, then win conference title. Get busy winning or get busy dying.
If I knew this team had a defiant 1990-type of attitude about it, I'd be willing to buy 9 or 10.
I just don't KNOW that it does.
Covid could actually be a hell of a leveler. I'm not sure I would assume it widens the two.
feel like struggling ADs will not be able to keep up with the jonses. Push comes to shove, we will have money for what we need, others will not. We need to hit the west coast for recruiting right now, PAC12 will be a disaster
Yep. Plus, the math doesn't support the possibility of 3 SEC teams making the playoffs.
The SEC has 6 teams ranked in the Top 9 (once you back out the Pac 12 and Big Ten). These are their match ups vs other top ranked teams + how many Top 10 match ups they have in parentheses:
#2) Alabama: Georgia, LSU, Auburn, SEC CCG (4)
#3) Georgia: Alabama, Florida, Auburn, SEC CCG (4)
#5) LSU: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, SEC CCG (4)
#6) Florida: Georgia, LSU, SEC CCG (3)
#8) Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, SEC CCG (4)
#9) A&M: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, SEC CCG (5)
Because the top teams all play each other so often, there are very few avenues available for the conference to end up with three teams that have 2 or fewer losses after the SEC CCG. If Alabama goes undefeated, that means Georgia, LSU and Auburn have a loss. But, Georgia & Auburn still play......LSU & Auburn still play.......and both also play Florida. So, you're going to have some present Top 10 SEC teams that end the season with 3-4 losses, simply b/c that's what the schedule calls for.
Mathematically, the best thing for the Big 12 and ACC is for one team team in the SEC to go undefeated, b/c it means all the others have the max losses possible. Two 1-loss SEC teams in the CCG would be bad. Best case scenario is they all lose at least two games.
Boo ketch. Next mod up
Knock on wood, we're a mere five days and change until the 2020 Texas football team kicks off its season and I'm going to make a confession...
I don't know what to tell you.
As the sand has passed through the hour glass in recent weeks, I'm intrigued by the reality that I find myself so unsure about the 2020 Texas Longhorns, while so many others seem to certain about the upcoming season.
"7-3 would be disaster!"
"8-2 is the minimum bar!"
"We should win every game."
I see the constant stream of confidence and I wonder if we're all watching the same football program.
From my vantage point, there are two things that I'm confident that I know about this year's Longhorns:
a. The program has been stuck in manure for the last decade and is literally coming off a 7-5 season that led to the removal of 70-percent of Tom Herman's coaching staff.
b. I don't have a great feeling for what to expect.
That's it. That's my list.
I suppose I know a few more things. I know Teras lost four Big 12 games in 2019, TCU drop-kicked the Longhorns upside the head for the fifth time in six years and Baylor won by two touchdowns and led 21-3 going into the fourth quarter. Oh, and Kansas nearly beat Texas at DKR.
Yeah yeah, yeah... Texas hung with LSU and Oklahoma for four quarters if you're into moral victories defining your hope. The Longhorns also beat the hell out of Utah so bad in the bowl game that it became impossible to not wonder if Herman should fire a coach every week.
The reason I'm beyond the point of exasperation is that we've seen Texas flash over the course of the last decade, and I have no doubt they'll flash again at various points in 2020.
Yet, this has been a program that has taken two steps forward and 2.5 steps back for pretty much an entire decade and while everyone makes grand predictions about the upcoming season, all I want to know is this...
What the hell have you guys seen that makes you believe this season is the moment when Texas football draws a line in the sand and declares, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more!"
Believe me, I want to believe. I'm like a 10-year old kid wanting to believe in Santa, that's how bad I want to believe. In case you haven't noticed, we're in a pandemic and a bad-ass Texas football team would be one hell of a good thing for business, so when I tell you that I want to believe, know that with every piece of my soul I'd wish Texas to a 10-0 season and into the playoff if I could.
But, I'm the guy that gave you permission to dream big in 2016. Remember that? How'd that go?
No, the truth of the matter is that we've seen one okey-doke after another starting with the 2010 season and I've jumped on that hook, line and sinker enough times that I'm going to wait until I see that worm talking to a family member before I go for a bite again without caution.
What I worry about with this team is that it's been sucked down into being average for so long that it truly doesn't know how to get out of it. It's a cycle that plagued the Longhorns from the mid-80s through the early portion of Mack Brown's tenure. Mediocrity has become muscle-memory around this program. Does it have the steel that a guy like Vince Young gave it to pull itself out of the Oklahoma domination 15 years ago? Is that who Sam is?
Until I see a weekly level of anger and unbreakable resolution from the boys in burnt orange, you'll forgive me if I don't see 7-3 as unrealistic when it represents more than this program has regularly accomplished since Charlie Sheen was the highest-paid actor on television.
Yeah, man. It's been that long.
No. 2 - Falling off the deep end ...
If you missed it on Friday, I took the first step towards the deep end of the pool when I released the first stream of data related to the historical output of the state's top-ranked offensive linemen in the Rivals.com rankings from 2002-2015.
Basically, the data confirmed what you already likely knew, which is the Lone Star State and (specifically) the Texas program perform well-below the national norms.
But, how much under the national norms?
That question steered me into some deep waters this weekend, as I set out to provide context to the UT offensive line development problem by being able to directly inspect it with the proper amount of context.
So, I not only researched the state of Texas, but I also specifically broke down the numbers in California and Florida. When that felt like it wasn't enough, I charted the success rates of each area of the country. Finally, I narrowed my focus to schools like Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma.
By the time I was done with the research this weekend, I had reviewed the careers of more than 600 of the highest ranked offensive linemen in the country among the high school ranks, including every four- or five-star line prospect from 2002-2015.
Before I take you head-first into the data, I want to explain why I'm using the NFL drafted data points for emphasis.
1. None of this is subjective. In terms of compiling data, it's either a yes or no. There's no debate. The system is the purest means of evaluating the development of talent at the end of each player's cycle.
2. While there are occasional exceptions to the rule, this method of measurement leaves out very few top-level college players, which means that it ends up providing data for us that is generally strong enough to not be impacted drastically with a smattering anomalies.
3. This is not the end-all of useful data, but what it does allow for us to do to is stick an actual numerical value on recruiting rankings and their individual worth.
I'm all ears if anyone has any better ideas.
No. 3 - The Longhorns vs. the national numbers ...
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players being drafted in the NFL.
* 46.3% (25 of 54) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 34.2% (28 of 82) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 23.0% (26 of 113) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 14.7% (50 of 341) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 22.2% (2 of 9) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 35.7% (5 of 14) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 6.7% (1 of 15) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 21.1% (8 of 38) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to Longhorns from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 33.3% (1 of 3) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 14.3% (1 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 0.0% (0 of 6) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 8.3% (1 of 12) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
What's interesting about the data as it relates to the state of Texas is how much the numbers in prove in a couple of areas when you pull the Longhorns out of the development equation.
* 57.1% (4 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 11.1% (1 of 9) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 26.9% (7 of 26) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 4 - Comparing Texas vs. other programs ...
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Florida 42.1% (8 of 19)
Alabama 37.5% (9 of 24)
Miami 33.3% (6 of 18)
Georgia 31.3% (5 of 16)
Ohio State 30.4% (7 of 23)
USC 29.6% (8 of 27)
Oklahoma 26.3% (5 of 19)
Auburn 25% (6 of 24)
Michigan 19.2% (5 of 26)
LSU 15.4% (4 of 26)
Texas 10.7% (3 of 28)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Auburn 83.3% (5 of 6)
Alabama 60.0% (6 of 10)
Miami 50.0% (2 of 4)
USC 40.0% (6 of 15)
Georgia 40.0% (2 of 5)
Florida 37.5% (3 of 8)
Ohio State 33.3% (3 of 9)
LSU 25.0% (1 of 4)
Texas 20.0% (2 of 10)
Michigan 14.3% (1 of 7)
Oklahoma 0.0% (0 of 2)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid- and low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Florida 45.5% (5 of 11)
Oklahoma 29.4% (5 of 17)
Miami 28.9% (4 of 14)
Ohio State 28.6% (4 of 14)
Georgia 25.0% (3 of 12)
Alabama 21.4% (3 of 14)
Michigan 21.1% (4 of 19)
USC 16.7% (2 of 12)
LSU 13.6% (3 of 22)
Auburn 5.6% (1 of 18)
Texas 5.6% (1 of 18)
A couple of notes worth mentioning...
* Five of the 6 five-stars Alabama has recruited from 2002-2015 have been drafted. Four of the six have been first round picks and the other was selected in the second round.
* Not to be completely outdone, Auburn has had 5 of the 6 highest-rated prospects in program history from 2002-2015 drafted by NFL teams.
* Oklahoma is 0 for 4 with the four-highest rated linemen in program history from 2002-2015, but have made some money in that low four-star tier. In fact, Oklahoma developed more low-four-star linemen in its 2015 recruiting class into drafted players than Texas had in all of those years.
* No program in the country has signed more five and four star high school offensive line prospects between 2002-2015 than Texas (28).
No. 5 - The regions with the most talent ...
This might be the most interesting section of data for my money.
In hopes of determining which areas of the country are developing the best talent, I did breakdowns on the following states/regions of the country.
* Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Washington DC and West Virgnia
* Midwest (Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota
* Southeast (Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee)
* West (California, Oregon,. Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada and Alaska)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five-star prospects from 2002-2015:
West 66.7% (8 of 12)
Southeast 50.0% (7 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 50% (6 of 12)
Midwest 28.6% (2 of 7)
Texas 22.2 (2 of 9)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
West 45.5% (5 of 11)
Texas 35.7% (5 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 35% (7 of 20)
Southeast 25.0% (4 of 16)
Midwest 21.4% (3 of 14)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Mid-Atlantic 38.9% (7 of 18)
Southeast 33.3% (13 of 39)
Midwest 20.0% (3 of 15)
'West 8.3% (2 of 24)
Texas 6.7% (1 of 15)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Midwest 17.3% (9 of 52)
Texas 16.2% (6 of 37)
'West 13.9% (10 of 72)
Southeast 13.6% (14 of 103)
Mid-Atlantic 13.4% (9 of 67)
So, what would be my 3-step plan to rebuilding the planning along the offensive line recruiting if I was basing it on this data.
1. Heavily target the elite offensive line talent out West.
2. Emphasize building some in-roads into a very talented and insanely underrated Mid-Atlantic region.
3. Once you get beyond, the elite of the elite prospects in the West and Mid-Atlantic, there's not much reason to leave the state of Texas for low-four star talent and below. There's no real regional advantage to be found the deeper you go into the talent pool.
No. 6 - Scattershooting on Longhorns football ...
... Does the entire season come down to how well Denzel Okafor and Christian Jones come together on the right side of the offensive line? That might be a little much, but there's no question that one of the subplots to this season is just how well that side of the line can play.
... The closer the season gets, the more I'm starting to think Roschon Johnson has been marginalized because of the looming Bijan Robinson shadow, but don't be shocked if he ends up building off of last season's start at running back with a year that takes a back seat to few on this roster.
... Brennan Eagles showing up needing to be pushed into game shape is beyond disappointment. Come on, Brennan!
... I sure would like to have heard Jordan Whittington's name a little more in camp.
... I'm not sure Whittington really pushed Jake Smith in camp. Buy all the Jake Smith stock you can.
... Where's the pass rush coming from outside of Joseph Ossai? I don't know.
... I think Alfred Collins might be starting by the Oklahoma game.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I need to see it to believe it.
(Sell) It's the first game. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas is in the 30s and UTEP scores a couple of touchdowns. Texas just needs to get the game played, win and show some improvement.
(Sell)
(Sell) I'm just not sure Texas is going to have a chance to break in Card this year unless there's an injury.
(Buy) If you set it at 3.5, I might take the under, though.
(Sell) I think there's a zero-percent chance Sam accounts for 45+ touchdowns in 10 games.
(Buy) I bet it's better than people think. Gonna be a lot of people dying to scream after the job 2020 has done on us.
(Sell) I need to see it to believe it. It just feels like hype right now.
(Sell) At least one game gets cancelled or postponed. Just a guess.
(Sell) Not being last might as well be the same as being first for Bob.
(Sell) I've watched a lot of hoops this week.
(Sell) I have to believe Rattler finishes as a Top 2 quarterback.
(Sell) It's not impossible, but I'll say they get two in as of right now.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... I weirdly enjoyed the SMU/Texas State game. I can't explain why other than to say... FOOTBALL!
... Bring on mighty undefeated UTEP! Seriously, having played a game is a nice little advantage for UTEP going into this game.
... BYU/Navy has a chance to be a fun little college football game on Monday.
... My fantasy draft is tomorrow and I don't have any idea what I plan to do with the 8th pick.
... Isn't Brandon Carr a little old to be on the Dallas practice squad? I guess not.
... DeShaun Watson's contract was just a not nail in the coffin in the idea that Dallas won't eventually pay Dak prescott every dime he wants.
... Mitch Trubisky is the starting quarterback in Chicago. Have fun, Bears fans.
... Of course, that happened to Novak Djokovic. Good grief.
... I might be the only person who believes this, but Leo Messi's problems are all Leo Messi's fault. When you're worth over 100 million per year as a brand and you don't have elite lawyers advising you, any contract issue is one person and one person's fault only.
... If Gini Wijnaldum has played his last game for Liverpool, he'll leave as a legend of the club and a key piece of everything the club has accomplished over the last few seasons. Consider me sad, as he'll be the first true critical piece of the last few seasons to move on if he heads to Barcelona. Excuse me while I tear up.
No. 9 - The List: Best Yacht Rock Songs ...
40 years ago this week, Christopher Cross topped the Billboard rankings with the iconic "Sailing".
With that in. mind, I give you my Top 10 Yacht Rock songs of all-time.
10. Baby Come Back (Player)
9. How Much I Feel (Ambrosia)
8. Arthur's Theme (Christopher Cross)
7. What a Fool Believes (Doobie Brothers)
6. This Is It (Kenny Loggins)
5. Rosanna (Toto)
4. Hey Nineteen (Steely Dan)
3. Africa (Toto)
2. Waiting for a Girl Like You (Foreigner)
1. Saling (Christopher Cross)
No.10 - And finally...
7-3.
That's my season prediction.
Ahhh! Fvcks sake man.
I suspected as much, but didn't know how to find it. I mean this in the best possible sense, these predictions bode well for us all getting what we really want in 2020.
You kind of dodged the point. You spent a day arguing he WAS proven, then said he wasn’t. You were either just being contrary to make a point, or you are now. I tend to believe you were just being argumentative then and now you are admitting he really isn’t a proven commodity yet - and I agree with you
. Oozes potential, had good numbers for a soph, but nobody has a clue what we are going to get from him this year.This has been “Herman’s Year” all along. If no championship, he is not the guy. And I am among the least critical of his efforts at UT.
You left off the true number YR song, “Brandy” (Looking Glass). Also no Boz? If you want a great follow and see a great band, try Yacht Rock Review.
After reading page after page of optimistic forecasts from some of the posters in this thread, I find it incredibly depressing that the reason so many of you are predicting that UT will have a great season this year is simply because almost all of our scheduled opponents have been weakened by players either opting out of the season or having other non-COVID issues that will keep them from playing (c.f. TCU). Have we really sunk to such a low point in our expectations that we feel the only way we can become conference champions is by default?
As all of you, I hope that our new coaching staff will make a major difference in the performance of the players, but it's naive to think that we will not during the course of the season have players knocked out of action by either testing positive for COVID or just old-fashioned injuries. I certainly see the reasoning behind a 7-3 prediction, but also hope for a far better record.
As all of you, I hope that our new coaching staff will make a major difference in the performance of the players, but it's naive to think that we will not during the course of the season have players knocked out of action by either testing positive for COVID or just old-fashioned injuries. I certainly see the reasoning behind a 7-3 prediction, but also hope for a far better record.
Eagles for the occasional TD to show his ability like 2019. Then others do the weekly dirty work.
