Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Permission to dream big?)

[Williamhill2034]

Just for the record, your prediction this season is...?

If I’m placing an over/under I’d say 8-2 with the over in that I’m hopeful/betting we are 9-1 and wouldn’t be completely shocked (yet pleasantly surprised with 10-0). I can’t help but believe last year was just a fluke for so many reasons and Texas turns the corner it should have after 2018. The schedule sets up very nicely for it and some of our biggest issue teams TCU and OU have been decimated with the offseason due to injuries and suspensions and opt outs (we play them early). Iowa State would be tougher if we were playing in Ames so i like the win in Austin late in season. Ok St and KSU seem like possible trip ups for us if history is any indication. I’ll predict we beat KSU but I can’t say Ok St won’t give us fits in a close one that we lose and avenge in December with a big 12 title (God willing). Will be very interesting to see how OU does this year with wr injuries, rb opt outs and suspensions so I think while they will be good I can’t help but think they take a slight step back. Rattler will be great so I’m not doubting him it’s his personnel to work with early in the season.

 

[Texaswins54]

Ash was described as elite by Urban Meyer surely he is top 5? I’d also be hard pressed to find 5 OCs out there I’d rather have than Yurcich in College football today. Let’s be honest the best OCs in college are actually head coaches. Riley, Leach, Day, Holgersen, Gundy, Kelly, Fisher, Mullen. I mean outside of them you have Chad Morris, Graham Harrell, Tony Elliott. I’ll also add Ciarrocca. Who else is there really from a pure OC standpoint? I’m not high on Sarkisian personally.

He is right. They are both top 5.

 

[Ketchum]

If I’m placing an over/under I’d say 8-2 with the over in that I’m hopeful/betting we are 9-1 and wouldn’t be completely shocked (yet pleasantly surprised with 10-0). I can’t help but believe last year was just a fluke for so many reasons and Texas turns the corner it should have after 2018. The schedule sets up very nicely for it and some of our biggest issue teams TCU and OU have been decimated with the offseason due to injuries and suspensions and opt outs (we play them early). Iowa State would be tougher if we were playing in Ames so i like the win in Austin late in season. Ok St and KSU seem like possible trip ups for us if history is any indication. I’ll predict we beat KSU but I can’t say Ok St won’t give us fits in a close one that we lose and avenge in December with a big 12 title (God willing). Will be very interesting to see how OU does this year with wr injuries, rb opt outs and suspensions so I think while they will be good I can’t help but think they take a slight step back. Rattler will be great so I’m not doubting him it’s his personnel to work with early in the season.

So, you were screaming bloody murder because I took the under by the least amount possible?

I think the schedule looks trickier on paper now than it did before the cvhanges.

 

[Russhorn]

It's not as good at wide receiver.

I'm not sure what I think of the OL yet.

Not as good in the front seven IMO.

I think going into 2018 and 2019 you didn’t know about WR and then a guy stepped up. I would argue we are deeper and Eagles or Smith needs to emerge as the star.

Way better at RB.

Ossai for sure and I think Coburn better on DL. We actually have a legit pass rush end. I guess we will see if he is a good as Omenahu.

LBer has never been that great or us.

Better at safety, remains to be seen on CB as we had two pretty good Srs.

If Sam stays healthy it’s better.

 

[Williamhill2034]

So, you were screaming bloody murder because I took the under by the least amount possible?

I think the schedule looks trickier on paper now than it did before the cvhanges.

You took the damn under man come on. At least take the betting line like Anwar haha

 

[ThrowittoRoy]

I love that you went into such detail. Thank you

you cared enough to ask.

 

[moebevo]

Well...Lil J was just cut...can he return?
Used to see Christopher Cross at the original Maggie Maes and/or at Steamboat...they did incredible covers of the Beatles and Beachboys, then I went to a private party where they were the hired band and there were all these professional video cameras taping them...next thing...5 Grammys. I'm 62, McCallum class of '76 Graduate and for about a decade or so, Austin had the BEST music scene in the country.

 

[McLovin327]

Sunshine pumpers got their jimmies rustled.

After 10 years of predicting "this is our year" they have to be right eventually.

 

[Williamhill2034]

Ash hasn't had a good defense in half a decade. He might be Top 5, but he's rebuilding his career right now.

Here were my coordinator rankings from December.

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/thr...ollege-coordinator-candidate-rankings.454023/

Some interesting takes on this. For one Yurcich isn’t on the list so assuming you overlooked him because of his title at the time. I guess where we differ is below.

-Wilson is great but is he a 9 with Day going back to your points made earlier- let’s be consistent now
-Sarkisian a 9 seems high in my opinion but he has NFL pedigree
-Scott at an 8.5 when Elliott is the guy seems a little out there (see your points made earlier)
-Rudolph an 8.5 at Wisconsin, I’m sorry their offense is very 1 dimensional. OSU murdered them
-Coley at 8 is beyond ridiculous. Georgia struggles on offense and he was replaced as playcaller due to it
-Harrell at 8 is low in my mind he is clearly a rising star and what he was able to do with USC offense and qb injuries was very impressive, plus he’s a Leach tree guy
-Ciarrocca at 7 is pretty low I think James Franklin and the Minnesota Gophers would disagree with you

 

[Baguette]

..... The schedule

Plus Sam, plus Jake, plus better overall talent & experience than last year. New coaches, but they're a better pedigree than previous years {hell, look at Sam's reaction to Yurich, or how the D seems to be responding to Ash}. Throw in a "mad as hell & we're not gonna take it!" attitude," then look for a 9-1 record, maybe even an undefeated season! Its quite possible ya know! Hook 'em!

 

[rlstep]

I think you're overestimating an unworthy of your benefit of the doubt Texas and underestimating a conference full of teams that have proven it can hang or beat Texas.

Most games were close last year. There are some good new coaches in the league that are building programs. There are some good established coaches too. My hope is that an upgrade In defensive scheme and production will push Texas forward. I also hope the offensive scheme will add some positives and help the inexperienced receiving corp to elevate.

 

[Ketchum]

I think going into 2018 and 2019 you didn’t know about WR and then a guy stepped up. I would argue we are deeper and Eagles or Smith needs to emerge as the star.

Way better at RB.

Ossai for sure and I think Coburn better on DL. We actually have a legit pass rush end. I guess we will see if he is a good as Omenahu.

LBer has never been that great or us.

Better at safety, remains to be seen on CB as we had two pretty good Srs.

If Sam stays healthy it’s better.

I dunno, man. Herman literally seemed to be screaming he's unhappy with his receivers today.

Ossai is not proven yet to be better than Omemihu. He had one sack last year in all games not named a bowl game.

On paper, this team seems better, but that has seemed true every year for the most part.

My question is... how strong mentally is this team? That seems really important.

 

[Ketchum]

You took the damn under man come on. At least take the betting line like Anwar haha

You might not always like what you get from me, but it's always honest.

 

[Ketchum]

you cared enough to ask.

 

[Ketchum]

Well...Lil J was just cut...can he return?
Used to see Christopher Cross at the original Maggie Maes and/or at Steamboat...they did incredible covers of the Beatles and Beachboys, then I went to a private party where they were the hired band and there were all these professional video cameras taping them...next thing...5 Grammys. I'm 62, McCallum class of '76 Graduate and for about a decade or so, Austin had the BEST music scene in the country.

That is awesome. You need to post more!

 

[Ketchum]

Some interesting takes on this. For one Yurcich isn’t on the list so assuming you overlooked him because of his title at the time. I guess where we differ is below.

-Wilson is great but is he a 9 with Day going back to your points made earlier- let’s be consistent now
-Sarkisian a 9 seems high in my opinion but he has NFL pedigree
-Scott at an 8.5 when Elliott is the guy seems a little out there (see your points made earlier)
-Rudolph an 8.5 at Wisconsin, I’m sorry their offense is very 1 dimensional. OSU murdered them
-Coley at 8 is beyond ridiculous. Georgia struggles on offense and he was replaced as playcaller due to it
-Harrell at 8 is low in my mind he is clearly a rising star and what he was able to do with USC offense and qb injuries was very impressive, plus he’s a Leach tree guy
-Ciarrocca at 7 is pretty low I think James Franklin and the Minnesota Gophers would disagree with you

I'm ok with differing.

 

[Ketchum]

Plus Sam, plus Jake, plus better overall talent & experience than last year. New coaches, but they're a better pedigree than previous years {hell, look at Sam's reaction to Yurich, or how the D seems to be responding to Ash}. Throw in a "mad as hell & we're not gonna take it!" attitude," then look for a 9-1 record, maybe even an undefeated season! Its quite possible ya know! Hook 'em!

I feel like you and I have had this conversation for a decade now.

How many times have I tried to walk you back off the ledge of insanity?

 

[homebubba]

Great job on the OL analysis. Thanks @ketch

 

[Russhorn]

I dunno, man. Herman literally seemed to be screaming he's unhappy with his receivers today.

Ossai is not proven yet to be better than Omemihu. He had one sack last year in all games not named a bowl game.

On paper, this team seems better, but that has seemed true every year for the most part.

My question is... how strong mentally is this team? That seems really important.

Well yes, mental toughness is important. Are you saying they are soft? That is about leadership so I look to Sam to get that handled.

I watched the press conference and I am not so sure about the WR comment. I think you are reading way too much into it. Of course, he did say he was running a lot more 12 personnel so maybe he thinks we are going to be a power run offense. Hard to know until they hit the field.

Hell Omenhu was never as good as pressuring the QB because the scheme sucked and was designed to have the pressure not be generated from down lineman. It was a major flaw.

My bet is Ossai is a better pure pass rusher than anyone we have and in a while. But yes, that has to actually happen.

 

[Ketchum]

Well yes, mental toughness is important. Are you saying they are soft? That is about leadership so I look to Sam to get that handled.

I'm saying this team has yet to prove it has mental strength.

This program has lacked it for years.

And now in this season when it is more important than ever, it seems important to note that this is a real area of concern.

 

[moebevo]

That is awesome. You need to post more!

Thanks! Will do!

 

[Russhorn]

I'm saying this team has yet to prove it has mental strength.

This program has lacked it for years.

And now in this season when it is more important than ever, it seems important to note that this is a real area of concern.

I think they have shown toughness under Herman, just not consistently. Some of that is trusting coaches and I think that was a problem behind the scenes. For me, it’s about coaching and both Ash and Yurcich have legit skins. Maybe they forget what they have learned and regress, but I doubt it.

in the end it’s about belief. But they players are there and when they are lined up right and put in a position to win they ran over a good Utah team.

8-2 is not the end of the world. 7-3 is an issue. 9-1 is solid and 10-0 is, of course, perfect. Not a lot of room for error on a 10 game season.

 

[a_hornsfan]

Justin Fields had 51 in 14 games last year, and Jalen Hurts 53. Those guys didn't even hit the four-TD per game average.

I keep forgetting this is ten games. Ugh. Idoit

 

[Baguette]

I feel like you and I have had this conversation for a decade now.

How many times have I tried to walk you back off the ledge of insanity?

Its true, we have & I appreciate your Reality Therapy! I do get tired of feeling like a human yo-yo, BUT...something about being a native, something about that "Texas" eblazoned on the front of that burnt orange jersey & the mighty Longhorns decal {much like that damn Dallas Cowboys blue star} on their white helmets, something about the legends of Bobby Layne, Street, Nobis, Royal, Earl, Ricky, Applewhite {yes, Appelwhite}, Vince, Colt & Shipley keep walking me back to the ledge. I'm kinda like the addict. I need my fix, Ketch. Until then I just keep dreaming because I know there will be a "then," and soon! If not Sam, then Card. If not him, then Ewers! We're TEXAS!

 

[Ketchum]

I keep forgetting this is ten games. Ugh. Idoit

Even in 14 that would have been some season.

 

[zbill]

There's virtually zero known proof to suggest that this team deserves the benefit of the doubt just because.

There are questions everywhere.

No one on the board saw 7-5 coming last year even with us having to replace 8 defensive starters. Every team that we play has Texas circled on their schedule. It is very difficult to go undefeated in any season even with the best players.

 

[a_hornsfan]

Even in 14 that would have been some season.

I'll be honest. I think it is in the realm of possibilities. If you gave me +200 for Sam to be over 34.5 total TDs. I'd take the over. In ten games. I think this could be our best offense in a long while. I'm sold on Yurcich.

 

[Ketchum]

No one on the board saw 7-5 coming last year even with us having to replace 8 defensive starters. Every team that we play has Texas circled on their schedule. It is very difficult to go undefeated in any season even with the best players.

I don't know. We talked all year about the over/under being 8.5

7-5 ain't that far away.

 

[Ketchum]

I'll be honest. I think it is in the realm of possibilities. If you gave me +200 for Sam to be over 34.5 total TDs. I'd take the over. In ten games. I think this could be our best offense in a long while. I'm sold on Yurcich.

 

[Sentient]

7-3 means we’d be 8-4 with a normal schedule. That’s pretty shitty for a senior Sam Elingher. It’s only one better than last year.

It’s not an unreasonable take though. I think the baseline is 8-2 this year, and I’m hoping things break our way to 9-1. You can convince yourself that the Yurcich-Elingher connection makes a big difference. That requires a leap of faith. In 2020, I’ll take that leap in the name of hope.

 

[skahtea]

7-3.

That's my season prediction.

That is just ridiculous! 7-3 would be a kick in the nuts, especially with covid. 9-1...

 

[Tx Tailgator]

Ketch I for one am glad you are injecting a healthy dose of realism into the incessant excessive optimism that we see every damn year. The optimism is based on nothing but hope. Sorry you had to take so much shit for voicing an opinion. All of these big mouths will be nowhere to be found if the season goes as you predict.

 

[TexMexEx]

why does no coach or media member ask the fundamental question; if you can safely play 10 games, why not 12?

because no coach nor media member actually knows whether any of these conferences can safely play 10 games. that's why these conferences are installing bye weeks as safety nets throughout the season. see TCU vs SMU.

 

[HornHammer]

Christopher Cross is one of my favorite all time artists. Ride Like The Wind was great.

He should be having hits to this day!!

I believe he now lives in Atx

 

[Ketchum]

7-3 means we’d be 8-4 with a normal schedule. That’s pretty shitty for a senior Sam Elingher. It’s only one better than last year.

It’s not an unreasonable take though. I think the baseline is 8-2 this year, and I’m hoping things break our way to 9-1. You can convince yourself that the Yurcich-Elingher connection makes a big difference. That requires a leap of faith. In 2020, I’ll take that leap in the name of hope.

I hear you.