Winning is a hell of a drug. The problem is we don't get to take it enough around here.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Stop being Fredo, start being Michael)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I know where you're coming from, but we're still talking about players that hit at rates of 8:1 vs. those that hit at 10:1 or 12:1
Devious coaching minds can mitigate that advantage, especially since a lot of that advantage isn't athletic upside, but athletic development at the stage of 17-18.
People still talk about the Gideon drop and the Crabtree loss like a family member died that day.
Great post! It was if I touched your head and all the memories and pain went through my body.
It becomes even more critical when you are at a place that needs that development because of the faux edge everyone thinks it has in recruiting.
I'm wondering right now whether you're better off having 50 low four-star and all of that inflated importance or 50 high three stars that hate the world for their perceived unimportance and are dying to prove points.
Sorry, but there is also 1978 Cotton Bowl Earl's Heisman year we are #1 going in and got killed by Notre Dame, those arrogant bastards!
I am trying to keep somewhat of a positive perspective (for mental health reasons mostly) about where we are at. New Coordinators, No spring ball, global pandemic that changed priorities/processes in off season, shortened schedule, social isolation, and no significant crowd noise to pump up players. Overall was pleased with O and D for much of the game with the major (and i mean MAJOR) issues of drive killing, field flipping penalties. Over 300yrds (+/-) of plays called back? Can’t happen. I am seeing athleticism on the field and believe we will continually get better. Would not swap rosters with anyone in B12, including OU. Willing to see how it plays out and will support the players all the way.
Except for hiring Urban. Nobody who's paid attention to Texas athletics really thinks that's going to happen.
Not the first time. I remember well the second half of the 80s when both absolutely sucked.
For me '08 at Tech was more deflating than '10 Alabama.
Also, '89 home blowout by Baylor was far worse than a nondescript Freedom Bowl blowout. You have that Freedom Bowl too high. It certainly wasn't worse than the '91 Miami or '97 UCLA. And how does the '84 Cotton Bowl not make the list?
I think the reality is Saban played it closer to the vest once Colt went out. Could we have beaten 'Bama with Colt? Certainly. But I think it's foolish to think it was some slam-dunk. At the end of the day, we couldn't really stop their running and had little hope of doing so.
I just didn't live it. Otherwise, I'm sure it's high up the list. I was seven at the time. Cut me some slack.
Yet a meaningless bowl game 11 months later makes the list?
This. Let's be real. CDC "wonderful" fundraising at Texas came at the high point of the Herman hype. Rest assured sh*t's starting to dry up. It's not complicated. Win and checks get written. Lose and they don't. CDC doesn't remotely have the stones to make a monumental change. He didn't even bother with Shaka and he won't with Herman.
My list.
What the hell is there to say at this point?
I've already written a big picture piece on the game and followed it up with some thoughts on the state of the climate inside Texas athletics as a whole. @Anwar Richardson put a cherry on top of the sundae with a Sunday Pulpit focus on Tom Herman's political capital with the Texas fan base, which included this doozy of a line.
"Let us keep it real. Meyer is a proven winner, and if the cost of becoming a championship program means partnering with Freedom Bail Bonds, some fans are willing to rationalize the pros of players performing community service."
THAT... ladies and gentlemen, is where we are.
You've got a coach that hasn't remotely proven that he's ready for a job that pays him $6 million per year (and growing). You've got a team full of very average football players. You've got a large portion of the fan base that largely carries an assortment of resentments towards everyone and everything in the program. You've got an athletic director desperately wishing the idea of giving his $6 million coach an extension after a pretty good second season had a re-do button. You've got an ongoing pandemic that has created all kinds of real (and potentially more) financial issues.
You got all of that?
What we're left with is a team that is probably headed into a lot of 50-50 games in a league that might end up rewarding someone that plays at 70-30 for the season with a spot in its championship game.
I suppose that the best news from a pure footballing standpoint is that Texas will head to Dallas this week to face an Oklahoma team that looks more like UT than it does the teams that have won five straight Big 12 titles. Neither of these teams appear capable of bashing the other upside the head with a 60-something to 20-something type of beatdown and for that, I simply say, "Thank you." If there was going to be a team capable of delivering that type of blow to the other, it wouldn't be the one traveling from Austin this week.
A call for reason will start to hit the streets beginning on Monday. Herman will say stuff. Everyone's confirmation bias will kick in to some degree and a little bit of hope might eventually exist going into the weekend. Whatever happens next almost won't matter because win or lose the Oklahoma game, the very following game and the one after and the one after begins the continued stretch of coin-flips that feel more like a two-chamber game of Russian roulette.
This team has to make significant progress in almost every area of the game and only the most naive could hope that all of the sloppiness, confusion and malfunctioning will dissolve in a week. It's year four of Herman and there's not a thing he can say that's going to make us swallow the notion that our eyes and brains are wrong.
All we can do is wait, watch and evaluate from as high up from the fray as possible. Texas is mostly in this mess because the current athletic director made a decision from the ground when every important decision needs to be made from 30,000 feet up. That's not revisionist history. That warning existed in the minutes after the press release announcing Herman's extension was released.
Moving forward, the burnt orange world needs to start making decisions/operating like elite decision-makers instead of (insert whatever metaphor you want to use) that has created this situation.
In the coming weeks and months, in what might be a moment in time that defines the next generation of football around these parts, Texas decision makers (Yes, I'm looking straight at you, Mr. Del Conte) need to be more Michael and less Fredo.
Honestly, we've all had it up to here with the constant Fredo act. Everyone in the athletic department, from the players to the coaches to the athletic director need to prove that this isn't all too much for them because at the moment it certainly feels like it is.
No. 2 - A loud declaration ...
Speaking of today's Sunday Pulpit, I wanted to respond to something that Anwar said because I think it sets up a critical point inside of a world full of them.
"It is easy to lose fan support when the 3-star general, Gary Patterson, annually beats highly ranked prospects at Texas. In 2018, and 2019, Texas finished with the nation's fourth-best recruiting class, according to Rivals. Patterson's 2018 class was ranked 28th. His 2019 class was ranked 29th. I appreciate research that proves the more 5-stars a team has, the more likely those players are to turn pro. However, I will continually ask how many 5-stars does Texas need to defeat TCU or Oklahoma State consistently?"
I think the single biggest point I will continue to attempt to hammer home that I clearly haven't done a good enough job of to date is that it's not about how much five stars or high four stars matter, as much as it's how little the star and recruiting rankings matter once you get beyond the very elite prospects in recruiting (about the top 65-70 each year). The data that I've been combing through for this entire decade screams that the No. 150 player in the country has more in common with the No. 750 player in the country than he does someone that is a mere 75 spots higher.
What does it mean? It means that in reality, the Texas and TCU rosters are much closer together in talent than anyone that follows recruiting would ever dream.
Texas has a total of nine "elite" prospects on the roster based on the Rivals rankings, which is important because we're learning the values of those rankings in a myriad of capacities. TCU actually has the same number of five-stars in the program (2) as Texas. However, TCU doesn't have any high four-star prospects on its roster, which means Texas has a 9-2 advantage on paper, mostly at the wide receiver and defensive back positions.
The other 70+ scholarship players on the Texas roster and the 80+ scholarship players on the TCU roster are more alike than not because those dozens of low four stars on the Texas roster have a minimal statistical advantage in terms of historical development when compared to those three stars. If one thing fails 85 percent of the time and another things fails 90 percent of the time, are we really going to split hairs over that 5 percent? As I've said countless times over the last few years, a top-10 class in recruiting is much closer to a top-25 class in recruiting than it is a top-5 class more times than not because of the lack of highest end prospects that turn top-10 classes into top-5 classes.
The biggest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world that there's any real tangible difference between a regular ol' four-star prospect and a three-star prospect. Whatever advantage exists can be mitigated by great coaching and development with relative ease.
Onward with my crusade, I go!
No. 3 - Here's my biggest concern about the offense going into the OU game ...
I have no idea what the identity of this team is beyond asking Sam Ehlinger to do everything.
Whether we're talking about the running backs or receivers, I don't know who should be playing or if anyone should truly be getting more snaps over anyone else.
The team's go-to-plays? It's bread and butter?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Seriously, my brain is still scrambled from the realization that almost all of the players that carried the passing game in Lubbock were afterthoughts the very next week. It means I don't know who Ehlinger is supposed to count on going into Saturday's game. I just know that I like the offense a lot more when Jake Smith isn't the dominant target monster in the passing game.
No. 4 - About the officiating ...
I don't know what you guys expect at this point because it feels like every year there are at least a couple of Texas games that turn into absolute refereeing shit shows.
Too many times, Big 12 officials have seemingly made the games about them and nothing ever changes and now we're in a world where these crews are makeshift because of the Rona? What the hell does anyone expect?
More than anything, I'm warning you that with seven games to go, this is almost certainly not the last time I use a section on the horrible nature of Big 12 officiating.
No. 5 - The Big Five ...
Below are my top five Texas players from Saturday's loss.
5. Caden Sterns - I've been rough on Sterns over the last 13 months or so, but I thought he quietly was pretty good against the Horned Frogs. Not great. I just have a lack of top five options this week.
4. Jared Wiley - No offense to Cade Brewer, but I'd like to see all of the targets in the passing game to the tight end go through Wiley. Kidding. Kind of.
3. Sam Ehlinger - He needs more help from his teammates.
2. Keondre Coburn - Saturday might have been the best performance of his career.
1. Joseph Ossai - Seven more like that and he'll be the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and headed for the NFL.
No. 6 - One Super Positive Thing From the Weekend ...
Everman tight end Juan Davis is one of the more curious offers I've seen Tom Herman make in his Texas career because while Davis looks like a million bucks as a physical specimen, I can't tell you that I've ever thought he's that great at football.
Don't get me wrong. I can see that he's dripping wet with physical tools. I'm just saying that going into his junior season he hasn't been dripping wet on the field from making a bunch of plays.
Until Friday night. Check this out.
I just have one thing to say...
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
Oh boy. Is this the way it's going to be?
Yup, this is the way it's going to be.
Here we go.
(Sell) It has to happen on accident like in 1994 at some point, right?
(Sell) Both sides needed the break. It's on Texas that he made more from his break than Texas was able to.
(Sell) I'm still sticking with 7-3. I'm not one of you that had this team going 8-2, 9-1 or 10-0, so I'm staying firm. For now.
(Buy) Like with Charlie Strong, there's only one real constant.
(Sell) Even Charlie put 90,000 in the stands.
(Sell) That's not really among my biggest concerns with Herman. I'm more concerned that he just doesn't know what he's doing.
(Sell) I stood on the sidelines for the 1995 game. Howard vs. John. Ends in a tie.
(Sell) I've been thinking about what would happen if the Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans had a baby ...
(Buy) I feel like you can see that coming a mile away.
(Sell) Who is we?
(Sell) That's hard core, man.
(Sell) Nothing feels impossible in 2020.
(Buy) You know it. It did for Charlie.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... Texas A&M is in worse shape than Texas. Jimbo is just cashing paychecks.
... I suppose it could be worse for Texas, Will Muschamp could be running the program. Man, it has just never happened for him as a head coach.
... Props to Mack.
... Oklahoma State is getting better it seems. Imagine that ... improvement from week one to week two to week three.
... It feels like Oklahoma and Texas both need to go to Oz and shop for the same things - a heart, a brain and some courage.
... Shane Buechele is playing very well. Good for him. Is he going to play on Sundays?
... I said it last week and I'll say it again this week - not a single program from the state of Texas offered Kansas State running back Deuce Vaughn.
... The Dallas Cowboys and the Texas Longhorns feel like the same thing.
... Bill O'Brien isn't making it through October, right?
... About LeBron James...
... I found this stat on the MLB baseball playoffs to be quite something. I don't think I realized just how often one of these three outcomes occurs.
... I'll let this Tweet kind of speak for itself.
... My Premier League thoughts in two words. ************* ****.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Most Depressing Texas Losses ...
Let's just turn this into a therapy session and talk out loud about all the quiet things we keep to ourselves.
I can only really speak from the 1984 season on as something of an expert of living through all of these games in some sort of first-person experience. If I'm leaving a game out, say it out loud and join me in this therapy session. I know the 1984 Cotton Bowl has to be on a few lists.
Also, I don't mean automatically the worst losses as much as I'm talking about the ones that left you the most deflated in your soul.
10T. 2015 at TCU
10T. 2003 vs. Oklahoma
9. 1988 vs. Houston
8. 1991 vs. Miami (Cotton Bowl)
7. 1997 vs. UCLA
6. 1994 at Rice
5. 1989 vs. Baylor
4. 1984 vs. Iowa (Freedom Bowl)
3. 2001 Colorado (Big 12 Championship)
2. 2008 at Texas Tech
1. 2010 Alabama (National Championship)
No.10 - And finally...
Time to get my Ted Lasso on. The reviews have been too good and I need a smile.
1. Jan 2, 1984 Cotton Bowl vs, Georgia. I was temporarily consoled since there was no way that #1 Nebraska would lose to Miami, right?
2. 1978 Cotton Bowl Texas vs. Notre Dame. I was four rows up from the Notre Dame bench. Not fun.
3. 2008 vs. Texas Tech.
4. 2001 vs. Colorado in Big 12 CG
5. 1992 vs. Baylor-- Rogers Redding knocked us out of a bowl game
6. 1984 vs. Texas A&M -- the beginning of a long drought
7. 1981 vs. Houston the 14-14 tie. Most obnoxious fans-- UH fans.
8. 2006 vs. A & M. Sitting in Memorial Stadium surrounded by Aggies. Ugly loss.
9. 1984 vs. Houston -- some ominous signs temporarily salved by a big win over TCU the following week.
10. 2007 vs. Kansas State -- I left with 12 minutes remaining. I was so disgusted with our effort that day.
I agree with a lot of your choices above but these games gnawed at me. Had I attended the Oklahoma State game in 2015 or the Miami Cotton Bowl, those would have ranked up there. I was at the National Championship vs. Alabama but was so proud of the gallant effort we put up after Colt went down.
For a lot of us that have exhausted our supply of disappointment and found that apathy has replaced it , a string of wins would stir up some juices without a doubt.Love this team
Very optimistic. Just looking at the schedule at a glance I do not see us beating either of the land thief schools, K-State there, nor Iowa State. That's 5 losses without going any further
33 years? At best that's the LONG end of what's normally considered the "generational range." Pretty much a generation is in the 20-30 range. For sure, 25 years is considered a generation.
