Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The Big 12 is soooooooo weak)

[Ketchum]

I am shocked and appalled that there was recognition of the the great Drew Pearson.

I meant to dedicate a full section to the living legend. My tremendous error.

 

[anon_dbeyv0t7b9pqn]

So basically Texas needs to get out of the ratchet Big 12 conference soon as possible

Frankly this should come as no surprise - we are in a conference made up of mid majors (except ou) that has been kicking our ass for the last 8 years. We are the primary cause for the attrition of the conference and now we are paying the price.

If you were a top recruit why would you go to the big 12?

 

[teesip]

Ketch, I may be interpreting this wrong, but from the wording it sounds like rivals rated on average 33.67 5 stars per a year from 2012-2014. which would be a total of 101 five stars over the 3 year period. but when you worked out the draft numbers if looks like you only used 33 total 5 stars versus 101. example: 10 five stars were drafted in the first round. you said 30.30 percent of 5 stars(6.1) prospects were drafted in the first round. would that real percentage be 9.90 percent of 5 stars drafted in the first round? Please let me know if I am wrong.

II thought the same thing. Your stats are off, although it is hard to use three years worth of numbers because players can declare early for the draft. To get true percentages, you would have to wait until a particular class has completed all of its eligibility, including redshirts, and see what percentage of 5-stars were drafted in a particilar ropund

 

[sodiumacetate]

It's just my opinion in conversation that the Big 12 is a bad date to try and attend the ball with. At some point, it's going to be a problem.

Probably... which is why we all want out of it. And your analogy of building a mansion in a trailer park is good. But with the places where I think Herman is taking Texas, and you maybe do too based on recent commentary, Texas will again be nationally relevant and very hard to ignore, in spite of the trailer park that sits around us.

College Football loves it when schools like Florida, ND, Ohio State, and Texas are good.

 

[coopdog]

as fast as Texas is growing and as many 5A and 6A high schools that are being built sifting through and evaluating talent will be of the utmost importance.

 

[PureTexan]

No Drew Pearson love Ketch? I see someone else questioned you, very disappointed.

 

[MB-HORNS]

Another take away is Strong could win very few games in the terrible Big 12. My god he was just awful..

 

[Baguette]

The best news regarding Big 12 Suckage is that its a very, very good bet Herman will have his players going 110% no matter who they play, they won't play down to opposing teams level, and Herman will have the cream of the crop begging to sign in '18.

 

[shawnb14]

dont worry @Ketchum i liked grease 2 also haha

 

[86Horn]

I remember going to Expo 67, the world's fair in Montreal in my distant youth and seeing their vision of the future of housing, which looked something like that. Found a picture online:

 

[Buda Horn]

Here's a question Ketch, maybe a buy/sell for next week if you don't get to it this week.

Which player combo gets to and/or wins a super bowl first? Deshaun and D'Onta or Dak and Zeke?

I gotta say I'm leaning Deshaun and D'Onta. You start with two teams that both lost in the same round of the playoffs last year, you solve the Texans QB problem (I believe Deshaun Watson is Russell Wilson version 2.0), you add the nation's most productive running back to the backfield, and then you add the league's best defensive player back onto the field, I like Watson and Foreman to win more games than Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott. I have to think that the upgrades to the roster provided by Watson, Foreman, and Watt alone is worth an extra 2-3 wins in the regular season and an extra 1 win in the playoffs.

 

[Baguette]

Another take away is Strong could win very few games in the terrible Big 12. My god he was just awful..

Nauseously so, but other times you couldn't help but laugh, if not cry, at the the game-day buffoonery.

 

[SirGeeO]

I don't understand how everyone thinks the Big 12 is so much worse than the Big 10. Texas and OU are normally comparable to tOSU and Michigan. Oklahoma state Baylor and TCU are slightly worse as a group compared to Wisconsin Mich St and Penn St. In a normal year when Texas and OU are both competitive our conferences are close to equal.

 

[CutaneousHorn]

Another take away is Strong could win very few games in the terrible Big 12. My god he was just awful..

He didn't get enough SUPPORT. When will people acknowledge that?

 

[gs68]

The way the game is played in Texas has completely changed what types of players are created.

This state used to be the leader in lbs, offensive and defensive linemen and running backs. Now it is qbs, skill position players and DBs. Since football is won in the trenches, it seems like our OL and DL have gotten less dominant and our linebackers are meh at best since they very rarely have more than 2 on the field at any time and aren't ever playing against the old "pro style"/SEC offenses.

OF course, A&M has had several top flight DL and OL drafted the past several years and I wonder if that is about the perception that they are bigger/stronger/better than they really are because of the reputation of the SEC. I can't think of an OL that has done. They've had 9 OL/DL drafted since 2013 (3 in '17) and it is hard to think of any of them who have made much of an impact. Hell, they've had 4 OL drafted in the first round and only Jake Matthews has made much of a dent. Germain Ifedi starter as a rookie, but was also called the worst guard in the league by Pro Football Focus.

Anyway, this is all to say that football in the state of Texas probably produces enough talent at the skills positions and DE, but the big uglies and tough guys that kind of define NFL football seem to be produced less and less by this style.

While Texas high school qbs seem to put up great numbers in college, the only one I can think of who played in the Big 12 and has performed well in the pros is Tannehill, and he was in a more pro-style offense at A&M.

In other words, the spread puts up great numbers but it isn't doing the best at producing NFL talent. If Herman turns Texas into Ohio State, that will obviously change.

Most underrated post in those whole thread. Will TH recognize this and go OOS for big uglies until the Texas HS coaches figure this out.
7 on 7 is a problem for 11 on 11 player development.

 

[Santiam]

Herman may be licking his chops at the thought of piling hardware sky high in the trophy room - in the end, this conference will die, in the meantime, Texas will win a lot, put a lot of guys in the NFL and set themselves back up as THE big prize in the next round of realignment.

I agree completely.

 

[Ketchum]

Tim was the leader but in presence only. Kawhi was the lead dog when we needed a bucket. He was MVP for a reason. Not just on offense but defense- making life impossible for the best player in the game

That was not HIS team. Last year was really the first year when it became his team and he was played off the floor by another superstar.[/QUOTE]
Ketch he was not played off the floor by ONE superstar. He got beat in six games by 2 super stars and with refs giving okc atleast one game. It was well ducumented.[/QUOTE]
agree to disagree

 

[Ketchum]

If we are still seeing lots of 3-stars getting drafted, does that mean they're really good at evaluating elite talent, but struggle to see the upside in guys who they slap a 3-star label on? Innocent question.

Three stars get drafted because there are lots of three-stars (about 1K per year).

By itself a three-star kid isn't a definition of a player without good talent. A high three-star prospect represents a national Top 350-600 player. It performs well against mid- and low-four star players opver the course of seven rounds (only outperformed by 2X the rates, instead of 4-6X).

A three-star label isn't an insult, especially at the top of the three-star tiers.

 

[Ketchum]

* It didn’t get cute. Jerry likes a razzle dazzle whenever he can get a razzle dazzle, but the team seemed to play things out of a safe playbook, which is comforting because the Cowboys often make poor decisions when they look to create a razzle dazzle.
===========================================

I really don't think this has been the case since 2012, when there was the trade UP to pick Claiborne. If you want to say that picking Randy Gregory falls into this category or picking Smith last year does, I would disagree and call those picks calculated risks to get a guy at a spot he would never have been able to be gotten under normal circumstances.


a. I think it must suck to be a Bears fan right now.
=============================================

At the register to pick up my pizza at my favorite local Italian place Saturday night and two Bears fans are in line as well arguing. One is saying he's through, done, had it...renouncing his fandom. The other is telling him he can't do that, he has to tough it out. I thought it funny that two obvious Chicago guys (by their accents) were arguing about the Bears in Arlington, Texas.

a. Smith was a razzle dazzle pick, an attempt to prove that they are better than everyone else.

b. That's a great story. Thanks for sharing. I smiled.

 

[Ketchum]

The way the game is played in Texas has completely changed what types of players are created.

This state used to be the leader in lbs, offensive and defensive linemen and running backs. Now it is qbs, skill position players and DBs. Since football is won in the trenches, it seems like our OL and DL have gotten less dominant and our linebackers are meh at best since they very rarely have more than 2 on the field at any time and aren't ever playing against the old "pro style"/SEC offenses.

OF course, A&M has had several top flight DL and OL drafted the past several years and I wonder if that is about the perception that they are bigger/stronger/better than they really are because of the reputation of the SEC. I can't think of an OL that has done. They've had 9 OL/DL drafted since 2013 (3 in '17) and it is hard to think of any of them who have made much of an impact. Hell, they've had 4 OL drafted in the first round and only Jake Matthews has made much of a dent. Germain Ifedi starter as a rookie, but was also called the worst guard in the league by Pro Football Focus.

Anyway, this is all to say that football in the state of Texas probably produces enough talent at the skills positions and DE, but the big uglies and tough guys that kind of define NFL football seem to be produced less and less by this style.

While Texas high school qbs seem to put up great numbers in college, the only one I can think of who played in the Big 12 and has performed well in the pros is Tannehill, and he was in a more pro-style offense at A&M.

In other words, the spread puts up great numbers but it isn't doing the best at producing NFL talent. If Herman turns Texas into Ohio State, that will obviously change.

good post.

 

[Ketchum]

1. Well, I do like how you think 3 times is sufficient date.
2. I do like how "last team" and "back in '15" are somehow ancient history.
3. In the long illustrious history of the CFP, one Pac 10 team has made the cut. See what I did there.
4. This discussion has been based on OU and TX "having little to no room for error." Best I can, the 2 are batting a combined 1.000 when in contention for a CFP.

right on,

 

[Ketchum]

Tim was the leader but in presence only. Kawhi was the lead dog when we needed a bucket. He was MVP for a reason. Not just on offense but defense- making life impossible for the best player in the game

That was not HIS team. Last year was really the first year when it became his team and he was played off the floor by another superstar.[/QUOTE]
Ketch he was not played off the floor by ONE superstar. He got beat in six games by 2 super stars and with refs giving okc atleast one game. It was well ducumented.[/QUOTE]
whatever helps you sleep at night.

 

[CK-smallville]

3

And what does this (the lack of respect for the Big 12) say about Texas high school talent, which we have always thought of as the best in the nation?

I have noticed that the best players in Texas or should I say most of the 5 star players are running to other schools, mostly Alabama, Florida State, Florida and Oregon ect. So if they stay home and play we wouldn't be looking so out of place despite the conference.

 

[bbussell1]

I haven't seen anybody mention Mel Kiper's comment when D'Onta was drafted by the Texans. He basically said the 2K rushing yards were not real because he did it against Big 12 Defenses. I know Kiper is a bit of a blow hard talking head that just has to have some provocative BS lined up for the draft telecast, but I still found this comment surprisingly negative about the B12. Is this really what the rest of the world thinks ... that all offensive production in the Big 12 is suspect?

 

[sodiumacetate]

a. I think it must suck to be a Bears fan right now.
=============================================

At the register to pick up my pizza at my favorite local Italian place Saturday night and two Bears fans are in line as well arguing. One is saying he's through, done, had it...renouncing his fandom. The other is telling him he can't do that, he has to tough it out. I thought it funny that two obvious Chicago guys (by their accents) were arguing about the Bears in Arlington, Texas.

I saw those guys, too. They went and met their buddies and I snapped a picture:

 

[Charlie Work]

I bet you're wrong. It's not about competitiveness. It's about dollars. The Big 12 is not going to produce ratings good enough to keep anyone interested.

There's a lot that's going to be different by then. But there won't be an ESPN walking through the door making it rain in order to keep the Big 12 intact. If someone can figure out how to bring in equivalent dollars through new media then maybe Texas can leverage that into staying in a moribund Big 12 they dominate, but there are a lot of brilliant people who have tried to do that, and what it always amounts to is lesser revenue and lower overhead...or bankruptcy, mergers, massive layoffs, and often dead industries.

Orangebloods is an example of that. When you don't have to pay the capital costs of a newspaper publishing business and distribution system, you can still make a great margin reporting to niche audiences for premium content. But Orangebloods and its ilk don't bring in nearly the revenue the old newspaper businesses could command. Same thing with the music business. Huge music empires have been crushed, and outside of live performances, entertainers are still trying to find a way to create a percentage of the revenue their content used to command before the Spotify era.

The good news is that live entertainment commands a premium to advertisers, because viewers are more likely to watch the commercials. Maybe schools can sell their content to niche audiences the way Orangebloods does, without needing huge ESPN type studio costs to do it. But it seems more likely that a Big 10 network type setup, with enormous installed audiences, are going to continue to generate record revenues compared to what UT can do going it alone. And the Big 12 is going to quickly get shoved aside. There simply aren't enough people and/or media markets with the Big 12 schools outside of OU and Texas to matter.

great post...there is a ton of truth in there...BUT, I think the huge $'s are in the playoffs & the B12 represents the absolute best chance to be in the discussion every year, especially when it expands to 8 teams & the P5 champs get an automatic bid...if Herman is the guy we all hope he is, the B12 becomes an asset & not the boat anchor it is now.

.

 

[coocs]

Two different conversations.

Neither is very flattering.

The cold reality is that the basketball we play on Friday nights develops quarterbacks, receivers and corner backs. The day of great linebackers, d-line and mauling O-linemen are gone for the near future.

 

[Fansong77]

Frankly this should come as no surprise - we are in a conference made up of mid majors (except ou) that has been kicking our ass for the last 8 years. We are the primary cause for the attrition of the conference and now we are paying the price.

If you were a top recruit why would you go to the big 12?

 

[Schein31]

So basically Texas needs to get out of the ratchet Big 12 conference soon as possible

They should for many reasons but to say players' aren't getting drafted do to being in the Big 12 is weak. Didn't stop all those picks from 1998-2008. League has one good team. That's why there are few picks . OU is one of only 2 schools with at least 4 players drafted the past 10 years . UT will be there next draft. I bet there are at least 10picks the next 2 seasons.

 

[CutaneousHorn]

The cold reality is that the basketball we play on Friday nights develops quarterbacks, receivers and corner backs. The day of great linebackers, d-line and mauling O-linemen are gone for the near future.

Where have you gone, Jerry Sisemore?

 

[coopdog]

are we heading towards 4 bigger major conferences and the to 8 playoff teams???


I would think money says yes.

 

[Ketchum]

I haven't seen anybody mention Mel Kiper's comment when D'Onta was drafted by the Texans. He basically said the 2K rushing yards were not real because he did it against Big 12 Defenses. I know Kiper is a bit of a blow hard talking head that just has to have some provocative BS lined up for the draft telecast, but I still found this comment surprisingly negative about the B12. Is this really what the rest of the world thinks ... that all offensive production in the Big 12 is suspect?

Yes.

 

[Ketchum]

The cold reality is that the basketball we play on Friday nights develops quarterbacks, receivers and corner backs. The day of great linebackers, d-line and mauling O-linemen are gone for the near future.

Herman seems fine with addressing those needs outside of one talent pool area.

 

[Ketchum]

They should for many reasons but to say players' aren't getting drafted do to being in the Big 12 is weak. Didn't stop all those picks from 1998-2008. League has one good team. That's why there are few picks . OU is one of only 2 schools with at least 4 players drafted the past 10 years . UT will be there next draft. I bet there are at least 10picks the next 2 seasons.

Do you not perceive the landscape different than itwas a decade ago?

 

[Ketchum]

are we heading towards 4 bigger major conferences and the to 8 playoff teams???


I would think money says yes.

absolutely. I have sensed from some admin that they know a Texas move will change the landscape of the entire sport.