In the 24-hour immediate aftermath of Ochaun Mathis' decision to play for Nebraska this season, my brain has been overwhelmed by potential think pieces.
So many thoughts have crossed my mind that I couldn't decide on which one was most important to address.
Therefore, I'm just going to give it all to you in one big Mathis word salad. Honestly, I don't even know how many thoughts I have in my head about the situation. I'm just going to keep writing until I'm out.
Apologies in advance if this turns into the college thesis I never got around to writing.
Here we go.
1. Has Texas done enough to improve its historically poor defense?
This hasn't been a question that has really needed floating in the universe for the entire off-season because the expectation that Mathis would answer the single biggest area of concern on the defense meant that there was an unearned benefit of the doubt that just kind of lived in the air.
The loss of Mathis at the finish line seems to have revealed that this line of discussion might turn out to be a season-defining theme if the Longhorns can't outscore everyone in a manner that leads to a successful season.
Ohio State transfer Ryan Watts was a big get in the transfer market, but he's the only addition the program has made through the portal on that side of the ball. As it stands, they've taken twice as many wide receivers through the Portal as defensive players. Yes, I cringed a little while typing that sentence.
When we look at the 2022 recruiting class, five of the top 10 prospects in the class (all mid-four stars or higher), were players that project on the defensive side of the ball. Four of the five - cornerback Terrance Brooks, defensive tackle Jaray Bledsoe, edge rusher Justice Finley and defensive back Jaylon Guilbeau - were early enrollees this spring. The fifth is defensive end J'Mond Tapp and he'll arrive in the next month.
Of the players on campus, none really performed at such a high level that anyone is suggesting they'll be high-level impact players from the first snap of the season. Finkley had a very good last two weeks of camp, but I'm not sure that he's ever played against a true high-level offensive lineman at this point, so it's hard to pinpoint exactly where he is after a few very solid practices.
There's no added pass rusher at this point. There's no new starting linebacker. No added depth at linebacker. No new safety help. No added playmakers of any kind, unless Watts explodes out of the gate.
I'm not sure anything else really needs to be said on this front for now. Given the resources steered towards the offense this off-season, the lack of proven reinforcements for a defensive unit that dearly needs some sticks out like a very sore thumb.
2. This defensive coaching staff isn't holding up its end of the bargain in terms of talent acquisition.
Here's just a very quick roll-call of what I'm talking about.
a. Last year's Portal decisions, which resulted in very little productive play.
b. It signed one player (Brooks) from the elite tiers of college football recruiting (5 and high 4 stars).
c. It signed one of the state's Top 7 defensive prospects in the Rivals rankings.
d. It has landed only one defensive player in the Portal for 2022.
With regards to the Portal this year, it's not for a lack of trying. The staff went after Mathis, Albany pass rusher Jerod Verse, Alabama linebacker Drew Sanders, Central Michigan linebacker Troy Brown, UNLV linebacker Jacoby Windmon, LSU linebacker Josh White and UCLA linebacker Caleb Johnson.
It just isn't winning the overwhelming majority of the battles it finds itself trying to get into.
3. Consider all this to be a lesson learned from yours truly with regards to the changes in forecasting decisions in this new Portal era.
Texas had so many advantages in its favor that it felt like a layup from my perspective. After this recruitment, it's clear that money talks and the rest of that shit (3 visits, proximity, Gary Patterson connection) walks.
I was waaaaay wrong. So wrong that I don't know if I could have been more wrong. All because of the traditional way I viewed something like his mom visiting four different Orangebloods broadcasts in the span of a few weeks just to ... participate. That felt like a sign for weeks. Now it feels like we were used in an effort to jack up the price for the Huskers.
Hey, don't hate the player, hate the game, amiright? If this was all a ruse to paint the picture for the Huskers that he was going to go to Texas, so that the NIL price points would climb, I have to admit that I'm mighty impressed.
Regardless, mental note taken.
4. Good for Nebraska.
Let's be honest here ... the Huskers live in a world of pain as a former titan in the sport, now relegated to mid-tier status in a state/area that produces very little natural resources (bad ass prospects) that it can use. As it was set to enter Scott Frost's fifth season, the entire program seemed in unison that it desperately needed help at the edge position.
Yet, how the hell could they possibly compete with the advantages that Texas had at its disposal? It decided that it would blow through the current averages of NIL deals and provide Mathis with an offer he couldn't resist.
This situation is proof that NIL can be a pathway for mid-tier programs to obtain difference-making talent that it couldn't ever before. The Huskers hadn't beaten Texas for a kid from Texas that the Longhorns wanted in more than two decades, but they did on Saturday.
You can debate the worth of the deal, but Nebraska got the job done. It seems over the moon with having gotten it done. If he fails on the field, it won't be because those that care about the program didn't put their money where their mouths are and try.
Nebraska just put a huge blinking sign up for any kid that enters the Portal that if they want to get really paid, Lincoln will get the job done.
5. If the numbers being discussed behind the scenes are true, Mathis could make in the neighborhood of the NFL rookie minimum wage. Based on what the NFL has identified as the payment structure for the lowest level players in its league, you can make the case that Nebraska is just catching up (and thus ahead of its peers) for the true value of one year of service for a really good college football player in a free market.
6. NIL deals helped the Longhorns land Quinn Ewers and Isaiah Neyor. In fact, the word on the street was that it was UT's ability to enhance Neyor's NIL profile that was the thing that got him to flip his commitment from Tennessee to Texas. Nebraska just wanted Mathis more and proved it with its NIL network.
7. It does need to be said for the record that it's really tough to know exactly who Mathis is as a player. Is he the dude with double-digit sacks in 2020 or the guy that had four in 2022 and wasn't able to leave for the NFL because his stock had fallen? He's definitely better and more proven than anyone on the Texas roster, but I can't tell you that Nebraska is going to get six sacks from him this weekend?
8. The Big 12 had zero first round picks as a conference in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Big 10 had seven. Meanwhile of the first 14 picks the conference produced in the first two rounds, 7 of them were either offensive linemen or front seven players on defense. If you're a player at those positions looking to improive your NFL Draft prospects, a serious case can be made that you're better off playing in the Big 10 than the Big 12.
9. Personally, I can't be mad at a young man if he decides that he can't turn down the kind of money that can change the life of his entire family. Bills being able to be paid on time is not an underrated deal. We're talking about a young man from a single -parent background that had a chance to improve his family's financial outlook.
10. The quicker the Longhorns hire a high-level person with NFL experience to be the program's general manager, the better.
No. 2 - The importance of Ovie ...
If we're picking a list of the top five players in the Texas program going into the 2022 season, I'm pretty certain that junior edge rusher Ovie Oghoufo won't make many lists.
Yet, if we're talking about the top five most important players on the team going into the 2022 season, Oghoufo has to make the last.
For a defense that was poor rushing the passer a season ago, Oghoufo is suddenly an incredibly critical piece of the 2022 puzzle. Barring something unforeseen, he's the top dog at the edge position going into the year and unless Finkley or fellow true freshman Tapp are ready to assume some major lifting, a lot of pressure has shifted to the former Notre Dame transfer, who recorded 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries in eight starts (12 games played) as a junior.
Those numbers really need to climb this season or else ... I'm not completely sure who is going to make them.
This time last week, Oghoufo looked like a very nice Robin to Mathis' Batman at the edge position going into the year. Suddenly, he has to be Batman at the position.
For better or worse, he's the most important player on the defense going into 2022.
No. 3 - A few quick thoughts on the Longhorns and the NFL Draft ...
I don't think there could be any surprises this weekend that the Longhorns departed without a single player having his name called in any of the seven rounds.
Personally, I thought Josh Thompson was good enough to crack that low bar, but I can't say I was surprised that it didn't happen.
I'm not going to waste your time with a big think piece over something that sucked for three straight days. You don't need me to tell you that the events of this weekend don't help the program, so let's just look at the six players that signed undrafted free agent deals and assess each opportunity.
Josh Thompson (Jacksonville) - The Jaguars showed interest in Thompson during the build-up in the Draft and seemed really intrigued by his potential on special teams. Although the Jaguars drafted a pair of defensive backs in the latter stages of the draft, there's a pathway for Thompson to make the team if he stars on special teams in August. At the very least, he seems to have landed in a spot that could make for a practice squad home if he can't make a team coming out of camp.
Cameron Dicker (LA Rams) - It seems like he was signed as a place-kicker by the Rams, which means he's likely heading to camp hoping to catch another team's eye in camp because it's unlikely that he'll beat out veteran Matt Gay as the team's primary kicker.
Brenden Schooler (Patriots) - Special teams, special teams and special teams. If he stands out in that department in camp, he's got a chance to make the team based on the reports I've read on Sunday. He's viewed as one of the priority undrafted free agents in the New England rookie class. Another player that could find a home on a practice squad.
Denzel Okafor (Jacksonville) - The good news is that the Jaguars only signed two undrafted offensive linemen on Saturday, which would seem to give Okafor a chance to prove himself when camp rolls around. Okafor landing on the practice squad would have to be considered a massive win if he can pull that off.
Cade Brewer (Seahawks) - It feels like this will be a tough hill to climb. Like a few others, the practice squad is probably the goal that should be aimed for and anything better than that means he won the lottery.
Derek Kerstetter (Buffalo) - See above. Practice squad needs to be the aim.
No. 4 - Ryan Niblett confirms he's a bad ass ...
It was a good news/bad news weekend on the track for new Texas commitment Ryan Niblett at the 6A Region II track meet.
The bad news is that he didn't qualify for state in a single event.
The good news is that he was still pretty incredible.
In finishing fourth in the 100 meters, Niblett improved his PR in the prelims with a 10.41 and his 10.51 time in the finals meant that he's been at 10.51 or better in his last three runs.
Meanwhile, he set a new personal record in the 200 meters (21.25) before finishing fourth in the finals with a 21.45, while also finishing 5th in the long jump (22' 8.5) and third in the 4X100 relay by anchoring a season-best 40.69.
He's not a fluke. Not even a little.
No. 5 - Break out the brooms ...
I don't even know what to say about the Texas baseball team following a weekend in which it was swept by Oklahoma State.
If losing Saturday 14-3 was awful (and it was), losing 10-8 on Sunday after building a 7-0 lead, only to give up a 10-spot in the 7th inning after Lucas Gordon had been borderline fantastic, was worse.
This season can still be saved, but it's naive of us to pretend that it's not falling apart in real time for the last couple of months.
No. 6 - NFL Draft scattershots ...
I'll have a more complete dive into the Draft a little later in the week, but here are some early thoughts.
,,, I'm not sure what to make of what Dallas did over 7 rounds. I actually find myself liking the Tyler Smith pick more and more when I look at what else took place. There seems to be a push from within to put some shine over the draft haul, but the reality is that I didn't see a lot of value in any of the picks that were made and I'm not sure how many of these players are going to come in and make an impact as a rookie. Maybe Sam Williams can be a situational pass rusher. Maybe Jalen Tolbert can be a serviceable No. 3 receiver. Maybe Damone Clark overcomes his medical issues. I'm not saying it's a poor draft haul, it's just one that I have some concerns about. There are a lot of maybes.
... On the other hand, I kind of loved what Houston did. Derek Stingley Jr. is going to be one of the top players in this Draft when the dust settles and Kenyon Green will be a long-time starter along the offensive line. I loved Jalen Pitre and John Metchie in the second round, along with Christian Harris in the third round. This might be the most impressed with any Texans draft over the years that I can remember.
... Drafts I loved: Ravens, Chiefs, Jets and Eagles
... The Eagles had one hell of a draft. In fact, I thought they had the best Draft of any team in the league, which kind of sucks.
... This draft is going to get Matt Rhule fired at Carolina.
... Dave Aranda did some kind of job this year, creating six drafted players from a unit that was expected to be so poor at this time 12 months ago. This is the type of year-two development that Texas needs from Sarkisian.
... Thought the Bears got a steal with Baylor running back Trestan Ebner in the 6th round.
... Congrats to Keontay Ingram, who went in the 6th round to Arizona.
... Players I'm kinda shocked didn't get drafted:
* Baylor RB Abram Smith
* Miami WR Charleston Rambo
* A&M TE Jalen Wydermyer
* OU OL Tyrese Robinson
* A&M DL Jayden Peevy
* Texas CB Josh Thompson.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) It probably says something about the grinder that the last dozen years have been that the events of the last year don't completely feel like an automatic yes. Personally, I understand your fears. They aren't unfounded. That being said, as I give more thought to the question, the last year has been pretty ****ing off the wall. From Monkey-gate to Hidden Cell Phone-Gate to the loss to Kansas to all of the recruiting ups and downs. I'm actually going to agree that it’s been slightly more Ringling Brothers than most years.
(Sell) Come hell or high water, I think the staff adds at least one more defensive player through the Portal.
(Buy) From multiple offensive line spots to helping provide some of the pass rush, the kids are going to need to produce, ready or not.
(Sell) LSU had seven players drafted in 2018, three drafted in 2019 and 14 selected in 2020, including 5 that were selected in the first round. If you're asking me if Texas can produce three draft picks in the 2023 Draft, I'll probably buy that. If you're asking me if it can come within a 1,000 foot pole of the 14 that LSU produced after its national championship, I'm going to assume you asked that question while smoking crystal meth.
(Sell) Five is a much more reasonable goal.
(Sell) I made that comment on Saturday night, mostly thinking of Charlie Strong's success at Louisville, when he was able to develop three star prospects during his time there into NFL prospects at rates normally reserved for four stars across the rest of the country.
From an article I wrote back in 2015: "While Strong was at Louisville, he averaged 16 three-star prospects each year from 2010-2012, which means that the national average suggests that 1.14 players from each of those classes would emerge at some point as a drafted NFL prospect.
All told, seven players that arrived as three-star prospects under Strong were drafted this
weekend, which means that on the average, one out of every 2.28 three-star prospects recruited by Strong was eventually developed into an NFL drafted prospects.
Basically, Strong spots and develops three-star prospects better than the rest of the nation develops four-star prospects by a considerable margin and nearly as well as the rest of the nation develops five-star prospects."
Now let's take a look at the four star prospects from the 2017-2019 recruiting classes. During those three recruiting cycles, the Longhorns signed 32 mid- and low-four-star players. The national averages on players inside of those tiers suggests that the Longhorns should have come away with 5-8 NFL players, just to hit the national averages. So far, that group of players has produced two NFL Draft picks - Sam Ehlinger and Joseph Ossai.
The reality is that the comment you quoted is probably slight hyperbole because there's still a chance that players like DeMarvion Overshown and D'Shawn Jamison can get that number close to the national average before they leave.
(Sell) I think a case can be made that one or two of those offensive line spots could be discussed based on the lack of depth in the spring, but you seem to be pointing towards August. With that in mind, you probably have it right, but I'd list the drop off from Overshown to his back-up greater than the drop-off between Mathis to Oghoufo.
(Buy) It's a tie at the top. Part of it is constant failure occurring in the strength and conditioning program. The other part is the coaching involved. We have not seen Texas coaches make the players they are working with better from one year to the next.
Is D'Shawn Jamison better in 2022 than he was in 2019? Junior Angilau? DeMarvion Overshown? Keondre Coburn? The list goes on and on and on and on.
(Sell) Arch and the Manning family haven't been swayed by any of the negative stuff from the last 12 months. I'm not sure why this would be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
(Sell) Not in 2022.
(Buy) You get the sense that the Texas coaches are looking under all of the rocks, including Florida A&M's Isaiah Land, who entered the portal this weekend after finishing the 2021 season with 19 sacks. A number of Texas coaches have started to follow Land on social media.
(Buy) It's just that damn good isn't great and the jobs at Texas probably require better than damn good to consistently win at the levels the fan base demands.
(Buy) Yup.
(Buy) Yup.
(Buy) Yup. It almost makes no sense from a leverage standpoint not to enter the Portal just to gauge what exists in the marketplace for one's services (see Jordan Addison).
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... It might be a game one overreaction, but it sure felt like the Bucks announced to the world in their win over the Celtics that the East still goes through the defending champions and that whatever pushover the Celtics found in its first series against the Nets, that ain't happening in round two.
... The Sixers series against the Heat feels over before it even begins with the injury to Joel Embiid. Having Embiid in the game up 30 with four minutes to go in game six against the Raptors is the move that Doc Rivers' coaching tenure in Philly is going to be remembered for. Why, man, why?
... I fully expect James Harden to melt in the heat of having to carry the team without Embiid in the line-up. Harden just isn't that guy any more. He's not just a guy, but he's not that guy, either.
... I've said it before and I'll say it again, Man City and Liverpool are the best two sides that the Premier League has ever seen. Once again, both teams are coming down the homestretch knowing that 93 points in a season might not get it done. If Man City wins out, it deserves the Premier League title because it will have done so under incredible pressure from the Reds. Speaking of the Reds, let's handle the business on Tuesday night and secure a spot in the Champions League Final. It'll be fitting if Liverpool and Man City are left to play against each other for European glory.
... Another weekend has passed and it's another weekend where Austin FC spends time in the top spot in the Western Conference standings.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Tom Cruise movie scenes ...
I didn't think I would be all up in my feelings over the release of the sequel to 1986's Top Gun, but with positive reviews coming in for this summer's Top Gun: Maverick, I will admit to feeling something.
Suddenly, I really want to see the movie. Maybe we watch some Berlin on Youtube. Google search "sexy Kelly McGillis". All of it.
Since I can't do a Top 10 Tom Cruise movie list because I did that less than two years ago, I've decided to do something a little different. It's the top Cruise movie scenes, which might be something we'll all disagree on more than the actual movies.
Enjoy.
10. Jerry McGuire - You Complete Me
There are about 5 scenes from this movie that could have made the top 10, but when he shows up at the end of the movie to get his wife back, he delivers one of the best emotional scenes of his career.
9. Cocktail - The Last Barman Poet
He's all charisma. Nothing is more Tom Cruise oozing charisma than him making a movie about a bartender that I enjoy enough to have probably seen between 50-100 times.
8. The Color of Money - Werwolves of London
It's the charisma from Cocktail turned up to 11. The fact that he learned to play pool well enough that every shot you see in the scene if actually him playing pool puts it over the top.
7. Risky Business - Dance Scene
It has to make the list. The question is whether I have it too low.
6. Magnolia - Respect and Tame (NSFW)
Maybe his most underrated performance of all-time.
5. Mission Impossible - Close Call
He's probably done better stunts in movies than this one, but this is still my favorite.
4. Tropic Thunder - Negotiating With Terrorists
You could make a case that top five isn't high enough for this one.
3. Top Gun - You've Lost that Loving Feeling
The best scene from the original Top Gun.
2. Jerry McGuire - Show Me The Money
"Hey, I've got Bob Sugar on the other line, I better hear you say it."
1. A Few Good Men - The Courtroom
One of my favorite scenes in any movie ever made.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Let's end this thing on a positive note that will make you smile ...
Something like Brenen Thompson running a 10.29 in the 100 meters and 21.0 in the 200 meters to regionals this weekend.
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