Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The Lost Decade)

[LILBVO]

Good write up. Your summation on basketball is correct but not as it relates to Shaka! He inherited a good team and has failed to recruit the pieces to push program forward. I guess if he is coach you think he is he will turn this years brick tosses into three pointers next year. Some one better start collecting resumes! How does tcu get ahead of us?

The last remnant of Steve P.

 

[UTJRod7]

Interesting perspective.

Houston seems like a bad matchup in the second round.

History between D'Antoni vs Pop suggest otherwise.

 

[PaperChampion]

History of the program doesn't mean jack. Bring Mike Krzyzewski, John Calipari, Tom Izzo or Bill Self here and we are an instant national title contender. Might not want some of those guys for a variety of reasons, but they would win big here. Coach and administrative support are EVERYTHING. History is irrelevant other than to show poor hiring decisions.

 

[linked]

Good write up. Your summation on basketball is correct but not as it relates to Shaka! He inherited a good team and has failed to recruit the pieces to push program forward. I guess if he is coach you think he is he will turn this years brick tosses into three pointers next year. Some one better start collecting resumes! How does tcu get ahead of us?

It's like every organization, NFL, MLB,NBA etc. It starts at the top. The well run organizations are the consistent winners. Not saying TCU is the greatest, they are just more successful now, just that Texas has problems at the top and it has been that way for a very long time. Only a hiring of Mack Brown, thanks to DKR, among others, not by our AD, gave us the we're the Jones attitude.
Heck, if Tom Herman hopefully is successful, I'm not sure we actually got lucky that CS failed miserably, otherwise anything middle of the road records and we'd still have Charlie. That should concern Texas athletics fans.

 

[golfpr3145]

Ketch what a great opening statement. You know as well as I do that all great organizations start at the top. The last decade has not seen great leadership from the President and the AD at Texas. Deloss should have been gone long before he actually went. It seems like we have the people in place now but we went so far down it's going to take a while to get back to the lofty state where we once were.

 

[trophies2]

The Greeks said the gods hated and would punish hubris. Just about the time someone said "we are the Joneses," the "sports gods" began nodding in UT's direction and our fate was sealed for at least a decade.

It's hard not to think this whole trouble began with the whole coach in waiting with Muschamp and the pursuit of the Longhorn Network, or was it just a perfect storm of coincidence that 3 great coaches who'd been at Texas for nearly the same timeframe simply got too comfortable and complacent together? Hubris? Yes. Karma? I'm not willing to go there, but it does creep into the mind.

 

[trophies2]

Ketch what a great opening statement. You know as well as I do that all great organizations start at the top. The last decade has not seen great leadership from the President and the AD at Texas. Deloss should have been gone long before he actually went. It seems like we have the people in place now but we went so far down it's going to take a while to get back to the lofty state where we once were.

Perrin, all things considered, has done a decent job, but they need a new leader that everybody looks to for a new bold vision of Longhorn athletics.

Personally, the guy I want more and more is Chris Del Conte. Very impressive imo.

 

[FrancoBevo]

That was a good dose of reality regarding our basketball program.

The lost decade is the result of the "fat and happy gonna fat and happy" - the people that were supposed to be minding the shop, simly stopped minding the shop, they sat back, collected larger and larger checks, and let Rome crumble to the ground. It's hard for me to acknowledge the good they did for our University because they're lack of vision and planning for the future has cost us and cost us dearly.

 

[CS]

Current expectations for Shaka Smart are completely out of whack.

This simply isn’t a program that warrants judging its coach by elite of the elite standards.

Exactly nobody is judging Smart by Duke standards. You're just being absurd here. Shaka is your guy, and you're in the tank for him the way you were for Charlie.

How many times has Texas posted a .333 winning percentage in a season? Answer: six times in 111 seasons. Shaka checked that off in Year 2.

How many times has Texas lost 22 games in a season? Answer: twice in 111 seasons. Shaka nailed that, too.

Your false narrative is laughable. Shaka has been a disaster of a hire so far.

 

[Ketchum]

You are stoking the fire, at least.

So is Tom Herman.

 

[Ketchum]

Uh...let's see...that he's close to losing his job? I agree that he isn't in the Heisman convo yet (maybe never), but losing his job to a true Freshman coming off a knee surgery (I thought he had double knee surgery, but maybe I'm remembering that incorrectly), a broken thumb, and a broken hand? Both the top two pinned threads are about Shane losing his job...what gives (serious question)?

Two things.

a. Sam is really good.
b. Sam is more of a natural alpha male leader than Shane and it's something that those inside the program can't help but notice.

I didn't say Shane would lose his job, but if one extreme is losing it and the other is being a Heisman contender, I think he's closer to the former than the latter.

 

[Ketchum]

Good write-up. However, did you ever see Kenneth Sims? Best D-lineman by far

Sims was before my time, but Hampton is a unique player that cannot be judged by sacks and tackles for loss.

 

[Ketchum]

Controversy sells.

Not really. That's not what makes money in our industry.

Just for the record.

 

[PaulieD]

glad you are back - good perspective. Let's hope the Lady Longhorns go far in the tourney and baseball rights the ship.

 

[Ketchum]

There's no reason why Texas can't become a national power in basketball. The in state talent is at an all-time high. If you think you can't become a power, you won't become one.

That's fine, but Texas isn't a national power. Outside of one small window, it never has been.

 

[Ketchum]

May I ask why we deserve better? We have one of the least deserving home crowds in college basketball. When we do sell out there is an alarming amount of the other teams colors sprinkeld among the burnt orange. I'm not saying the product has been what the university has paid for. Thinking we deserve anything is a bit overboard given the empty seats even when we were the Jonas's.

There's a reality that Texas basketball fans don't live in.

 

[Ketchum]

Women's basketball team is in trouble. The other team is only guarding two women out on the perimeter because they know the small forwards can't shoot. Creating a 4 vs 5 on defense. They gonna try that open shoot.

They've survived that all season, but yeah, it is the a problem at this time of the year.

 

[ball911]

As Colt McCoy walked into the Texas locker room just a few minutes before 8 p.m. central on the seventh day of a new decade a mere 2,629 days ago, I distinctly remember the thoughts that were running through my mind at the time.

While trying to process what it meant to see McCoy out of the national championship, I glanced down from my seat in the Rose Bowl to the late Michael Clarke Duncan, who I had met in the concession line and talked Texas football with for about an hour before the game.

Very briefly, the two of us made eye on contact and he gave me this glance that seemed to be asking what my thoughts were on the sight of true freshman Garrett Gilbert warming up on the sidelines.

As I shrugged and gave an unknowing smile, I recall thinking at that very moment that the future was now. During this renaissance of Texas athletics that had taken place in the previous decade, great players in all sports were merely replaced with more great players. Therefore, out goes McCoy and in comes the next great quarterback, who was a five-star prospect and one of the best high school players these eyes have ever seen.

Three-plus hours later, the Longhorns were national runner-ups and the disappointment from the moment was comforted by the notion that the night was but an appetizer for the main course that the future was supposed to represent.

No one walked out of the Rose Bowl that night thinking that we had just witnessed the end of the renaissance.

It didn’t dawn on anyone that the fearless play from the Longhorns for 58 minutes of that championship loss would turn out to be the finest moment for the program in the next seven seasons that would follow.

Or that a men’s basketball program that was a week away from earning a No. 1 ranking would never make it during the same time frame.

Or that the wheels on the Augie Garrido bus were about to fall off.

More than a championship season went up in flames that night with the McCoy injury. More than a championship was lost. The smiles inside the most powerfully rich college athletics program in the world evaporated that night and I’m not sure they have ever truly returned.

The Lost Decade was born on that night.

That’s the way we’re going to remember the current decade if things don’t change drastically. Tom Herman has three years left to change the narrative to a degree. The basketball program has two seasons remaining. Depending on where you stand with a baseball program that is currently amid a 12-8 season, there is either two or three seasons to get back on the championship stage.

With all of its money, its own TV network and a conference that mostly recruits in separate waters, Texas can’t quite put its Humpty Dumpty back together again. At least, not yet.

With 1,018 days left in the decade, here’s hoping I see some smiles around here sooner rather than later.

No. 2 – Tom Herman likes his football team ...

I don’t know what it means for this season or if he’s even close to having the answers to the questions that are still open-ended, but as the Longhorns head back to the practice fields this week and actually put the pads on, one of the things that is quite striking to me about what is taking place is Herman’s general attitude.

He likes the talent available to him. It might be rough around the edges, but you get the sense that Herman believes he has a little something-something with this group.

While Charlie Strong often gave the vibe that he needed an entirely new roster before he could win in Austin, Herman’s tough-love approach this spring comes with a healthy respect for this group’s ceiling if his coaches do their jobs at a high level.

“It was impressive when guys were going full speed and through the whistle,” Herman said about is team after the second practice. “There's certainly a lot of athleticism out there on the field.”

A few moments later, Herman offered up the following thought:

“If you've got elite, championship practice habits, you can call whatever play you want, if you've got good players and you've recruited well. I think that's really starting to sink in.”

Considering that he seems to believe that there’s plenty of athletes and athleticism available to him, he seems to believe that only a substandard next five months will keep this team from enjoying tasty fruit in the four months that will follow them.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Herman handles the rest of the off-season discussion because he seems to be a guy who would rather tap the gas than the brakes when it comes to establishing expectations going into the season.

No. 3 – Three things you need to know about the Under Armor camp in Houston ...

Houston Lamar defensive back Anthony Cook, Houston Lamar wide receiver Al’Vonte Woodard and Cy Springs defensive back Leon O’Neal are every bit the athletes/playmakers that their rankings would suggest them to be. All three rank among the most important prospects that Texas is recruiting this year.

Speaking of Houston Lamar, defensive back D’Shawn Jamison lists the Longhorns and TCU as his top two, while scatterback Ta’Zhawn Henry mentioned that if a Texas offer comes his way, he’ll end up being a Longhorn.

Prospects that will take visit No. 2 to Austin in the coming weeks: Cook, Woodard, Henry, Angleton defensive back B.J. Foster, Spring Westfield defensive tackle Keondre Coburn, and LSU offensive line commit Kardell Thomas.


No. 4 – Buy or sell …

BUY or SELL: Shane Buechele makes it to the Heisman chatter this year with a new offense?

(Sell) He’s closer to losing his job than he is emerging as a Heisman candidate this season.

BUY or SELL: If this year's team was to line up on opening day against the 2005 Texas team, this team would keep it within 30 points?

(Sell) The 2005 team did not play around with average or slightly better than average teams. It’s buried them.

BUY or SELL: Connor Williams will leave Texas a better lineman than Leonard Davis, Mike Williams, or Justin Blalock?

(Sell) You’re talking about three monsters and I’m not sure I’ve seen a monster yet in Williams.

BUY or SELL: Breckyn Hager being a Clay Matthews clone?

(Sell) Not if by clone, you mean he ends up being a three-time All Pro type of next-level player.

BUY or SELL: The final distribution of carries by the end of the 2017 season, looks like this ...

a. Chris Warren
b. Toneil Carter
c. Kirk Johnson
d. Kyle Porter

(Buy) Barring injuries, yes, I expect this to be the correct distribution order for running game carries.

BUY or SELL: Casey Hampton is the best defensive lineman you’ve seen at Texas?

(Buy) The only player that would challenge him for the title is probably Tony Brackens at his very best.

BUY or SELL: Erick Fowler becomes the freak on the field everyone thinks he should be?

(Buy) I don’t know if this is the season it happens, but I believe eventually he’s going to be an impact player at this level.

BUY or SELL: The Lady Horns make it to the Final Four?

(Sell) It’s been a while since I’ve seen this team look like that kind of squad.

BUY or SELL: You posted with an alias handle while banned?

(Sell) I don’t have any active aliases and haven’t for several years, at least.

BUY or SELL: If the ban was another week you couldn't make it?

(Buy) At one point this week, I completely forgot I was banned from posting, only to be reminded harshly moments later that I couldn’t engage in the conversation. I now have a better understanding of what you guys go through when you get a one-week timeout.

No. 5 – Survive and advance…

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I don’t know if the most controversial play of the game was actually a charge. I don’t know that Texas played better than NC State. I don’t know if this Texas team has another win left in its season.

What I do know is that sometimes in March it’s better to be lucky than great and sometimes it takes a ton of will to win a game when the ways don’t make a lot of sense.

By any means necessary, extend the season.

To the credit of Karen Aston’s team, it gutted out a win over a good team to advance to the Sweet 16 when it wasn’t on it’s A-game. In fact, there were moments in the second half when it was fair to wonder if the Wolfpack was about to leave Texas in its dust.

Yet, when it needed to in the fourth quarter, Aston’s Longhorns made plays. They sank free throws. They took possible three-point plays and turned them into offensive charges.

It was equal parts Beauty and equal parts Beast.

What matters most is that Texas' ultimate goal is still within grasp.

Awaiting the team is either a Kansas State team that it has beaten twice this season in rough scraps or a Stanford squad that belted the Longhorns by double-digits in its opening game of the season.

No. 6 – Reshaping expectations for Texas men’s basketball …

Before I jump into what might be a radical conversation for some of you, I wanted to introduce a few numbers to the conversation.

Total Sweet 16 appearances in Texas men’s basketball since 1960:

1960-69: 2
1970-79: 1
1980-89: 0
1990-99: 2
2000-09: 5
2010-17: 0

Total Elite 8 appearances in Texas men’s basketball since 1960

1960-69: 0
1970-79: 0
1980-89: 0
1990-99: 1
2000-09: 3
2010-17: 0

Total Final Four appearances in Texas men’s basketball since 1960

1960-69: 0
1970-79: 0
1980-89: 0
1990-99: 0
2000-09: 1
2010-17: 0

Unless the 57-year sample size wasn’t big enough for you to draw any conclusions, it should be rather obvious that three confessions of sorts needs to be made by the entire Texas fan base.

Outside of a seven-season window from 2001-02 through 2007-08, the basketball program’s history is very lackluster.
The fact that Rick Barnes didn’t win a national title in that stretch of excellence caused Texas fans to underappreciate the greatest era of basketball by a 10-mile pole that it has ever known.
Current expectations for Shaka Smart are completely out of whack.

Obama wasn’t even in office the last time Texas made it to the Sweet 16, which means we’ve witnessed a full eight-year term and will go through at least one full year of the next four-year term without the program so much as sniffing the second weekend of the tournament. This is the part of the conversation when I tell you that the words Final Four shouldn’t randomly pop out of your mouth unless you’re talking about another program.

This simply isn’t a program that warrants judging its coach by elite of the elite standards.

What Shaka Smart needs to do is get this team back to 20-win respectability and back into the tournament. That’s a step forward. Then he needs to win a game in the tournament. Another step forward. Then he needs to win another.

At that point, he’ll have done something that 47 of the last 57 teams have never done.

Any success outside of that, based on the history of the program, should be viewed as a truly special season and one worth being acknowledged as such in real time. If Smart can get the program to the point where it gets to a couple of Sweet 16 appearances in the next few years, a season can’t be deemed a disaster when 20+ wins doesn’t translate to the kind of post-season success that the true blue-bloods of the sport rate success by.

No. 7 – Texas baseball hasn't re-arrived just yet …

Well, the feel-good emotion from the Texas A&M game lasted about five minutes.

In a series that seemed to confirm who the big dog in the state of Texas is on the diamond, at least in the Big 12, Texas Tech flexed a little muscle this weekend in Austin. On the opposite side of the fence, Texas remains a team that is hard to figure out after 22 games.

For much of this three-game series, Texas stood toe to toe with the No. 6 Red Raiders, but it ultimately never made a play that would represent a game-winner. The only opportunities were squandered opportunities.

At some point, you have to score runs. As in plural. As in sometimes a large plural number.

It’s a storyline to a season that we’ve heard around these parts for a while now.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… I went 29-3 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament picks and then Villanova lost to Wisconsin and I might as well never look at it again.

… NCAA officiating … ugh.

… Gonzaga better be careful with West Virginia. I’ve got the Mountaineers going to the Elite 8.

… It’s hard for me to believe that Josh Jackson won’t be a top three pick in the NBA Draft.

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… Less than a week ago, San Antonio appeared on course to swipe the No. 1 seed away from Golden State, but losses to Portland and Memphis suddenly have the Spurs two back in the loss column with 13 games left for the Warriors and 14 games left for the Spurs. Perhaps it won’t matter at all in May, but it feels like the Spurs might have let a critical opportunity slip away this week.

… I keep going back and forth on this, but as of today, I’ve got James Harden as league MVP.

… Golden State is 5-5 without Kevin Durant in the last month.

… The Patriots are winning the NFL off-season and should be the smart person’s pick to win the Super Bowl in 2017. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have done nothing but lose players since the off-season began. I’d love to see something happen in the off-season that would lead me to believe anything other than a decline from last season to this season will occur for the Cowboys.

… Liverpool/Man City was one of the most exciting games of the EPL season, as both teams attacked each other in open play for 90+ minutes, yet there wasn’t enough quality on either side in the finishing department to assure itself of three points. Both teams must feel relieved to get a point and disappointed not to come away with three.

… The end of the Arsene Wenger era at Arsenal kind of reminds me of the end of the Mack Brown era in Austin. One more year to get the program back to the top and then he’ll leave, right?

… Give me Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Dortmund in the Champions League quarterfinals.

… Portland isn’t a perfect team, but there might not be a more entertaining team that the Timbers in the MLS. After falling behind to the Dynamo on Saturday night, the Timbers put their foot on the gas and raced for three goals in the final third of the game. Diego Valeri is easily in my top three of most interesting players in the league.

No. 9 – Attaboy Orangebloods …

I just wanted to take a moment to thank everyone in the Orangebloods family that contributed to our Haruka Weiser fundraiser. My goal from the outset was to cross the $25,000 mark and we ended up pushing close to $40,000 and I bet if you count the donations coming from the site that went outside of the Orangebloods specific link, we almost certainly crossed that mark.

For those that won bids in the auctions, stay tuned if I haven’t already been in touch with you. I’ll do so in the coming days.

Thanks, Orangebloods!

No. 10 – And finally …

Rest in peace, Chuck Berry. When you were made, the mold was broken.

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I know it fashionable to blame global warming on Charlie here, but #2 is silly. Charlie did need a whole new roster when he got here. And he left Herman a roster that he should be able to win with...coaching abilities of the two men aside.

 

[Ketchum]

History between D'Antoni vs Pop suggest otherwise.

The issue is current personnel, though. Nothing from the past really matters.

 

[Ketchum]

Former success in football does not make future success more likely. Former poor or average success in basketball does not make future poor or average success more likely. The coach and administrative backing are EVERYTHING. Bring Mike Krzyzewski, John Calipari, Tom Izzo or Bill Self here and we are an instant national title contender. Might not want some of those guys for a variety of reasons, but they would win big here. History of the program doesn't mean jack.

Riiiiight..... but, none of those coaches are coming to Texas. It doesn't shop in that kind of store.

 

[danhorn]

Sims was before my time, but Hampton is a unique player that cannot be judged by sacks and tackles for loss.

Like Roy Miller.

 

[Ketchum]

Exactly nobody is judging Smart by Duke standards. You're just being absurd here. Shaka is your guy, and you're in the tank for him the way you were for Charlie.

a. Shaka had a disaster season one year after an ok one. My commentary has more to do with the constant Final Four talk and the like that you hear from a group of fans that live in the clouds in the sky.
b. I was in the tank for Charlie?

You can be sooooo weird.

 

[Bill Blazejowski]

Glad your back!

 

[CS]

a. Shaka had a disaster season one year after an ok one. My commentary has more to do with the constant Final Four talk and the like that you hear from a group of fans that live in the clouds in the sky.
b. I was in the tank for Charlie?

You can be sooooo weird.

Show me some posts where people are holding Texas to Duke standards. Shaka's first season was a disappointment and below the standard set by Rick Barnes.

You were in the tank for Charlie well past the point it was clear he was the wrong guy for the job.

 

[WTexasHorn]

Considering that he seems to believe that there’s plenty of athletes and athleticism available to him

I'd agree with him. As in 9 wins plenty. I was expecting that from Charlie this season and I'll expect the same from Herman. That is unless Buechele flops...then all bets are off with another fish playing QB. Very disappointing to hear the stuff about Shane thus far..hopefully all the doubt lights a fire under his ass.

 

[johnnystranger]

BUY or SELL: The final distribution of carries by the end of the 2017 season, looks like this ...

a. Chris Warren
b. Toneil Carter
c. Kirk Johnson
d. Kyle Porter

(Buy) Barring injuries, yes, I expect this to be the correct distribution order for running game carries.

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I will admit I am the Board of the Kirk Johnson fan club but NO WAY "barring injuries" a healthy Kirk gets less carries than Toneil.

 

[Craben]

This article did a great job of summarizing the failures of the UT Administration, particularly DeLoss Dodds. In spite of more resources than any school in college sports, its own TV network, and one of the largest, most affluent and loyal fanbases, the UT Administration allowed its 3 top programs to fall into mediocrity. Dodds' prophetic quote, "We are the Joneses," now epitomizes the complacency and arrogance of the decison-makers at Texas.

Longhorn fans did their part in cultivating complacency and a false sense of eliteness. In football, fans extrapolated Mack Brown's 10-win seasons into national powerhouse delusions, in spite of the fact that the Longhorns weren't winning the conference, or making the BCS, or able to beat top-ranked opponents very often. In basketball, Texas fans extrapolated Rick Barnes' 20-win seasons and Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight appearances into believing the Longhorns were an established national powerhouse. The truly elite programs in football and basketball don't just make the national playoffs occasionally over several decades, they do it over and over, and they win a few too. Texas has never done that in either football or men's basketball.

At Alabama, the athletic department openly proclaims that it owes its fans championships as payback for all their support. It's time for the UT Administration and Bellmont Hall to do the same for loyal Longhorn fans.

 

[Hook 'em Danno]

what was negative about what I said about Shane? It's ridiculous to discuss him in Heisman terms right now.

One week removed from posting and you forget that we thrive on the ridiculous here at OB. Welcome back.

 

[es1943]

"Meanwhile, the Cowboys have done nothing but lose players since the off-season began. I’d love to see something happen in the off-season that would lead me to believe anything other than a decline from last season to this season will occur for the Cowboys."

Well, at least we have the draft to look forward to.

Don't worry. I am sure that if the Cowboys win the first 2 games, their fan base will be screaming "Super Bowl" every chance they get.

 

[Ketchum]

glad you are back - good perspective. Let's hope the Lady Longhorns go far in the tourney and baseball rights the ship.

Good to be back.

 

[oakhillfatss]

Show me some posts where people are holding Texas to Duke standards. Shaka's first season was a disappointment and below the standard set by Rick Barnes.

You were in the tank for Charlie well past the point it was clear he was the wrong guy for the job.

Actually he warned us first.

 

[Ketchum]

I know it fashionable to blame global warming on Charlie here, but #2 is silly. Charlie did need a whole new roster when he got here. And he left Herman a roster that he should be able to win with...coaching abilities of the two men aside.

The roster that he inherited had quite a few pro players on it, was 30 minutes away from a Big 12 title and provided him with his best defense by a mile in three seasons.

 

[Ketchum]

Like Roy Miller.

Roy was a beast, but he was never quite on that level.

 

[danhorn]

Roy was a beast, but he was never quite on that level.

Loved Roy....disagree with you.

 

[Ketchum]

Show me some posts where people are holding Texas to Duke standards. Shaka's first season was a disappointment and below the standard set by Rick Barnes.

You were in the tank for Charlie well past the point it was clear he was the wrong guy for the job.

Before this season, I received countless questions over the last year about whether Strong/Herman would get to the playoff before Shaka gets to a Final Four.

Texas was last in the sweet 16 when W. was in office.