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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Trying to explain the thing that you're going to hate...)

I could absolutely see this being an issue if we were going through several rounds of coaches for the same sport by simply throwing money at the problem getting the same result. It is unsustainable and irresponsible. The message you seem to want to avoid is "throwing good money after bad". However, I argue that is not the case at all.
Texas has had to eat all kinds of dead money in recent years. This wouldn't be a first time rodeo.
 
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The date was October 3, 2015.

Moments after the Texas Longhorns had been humiliated to the tune of 50-7 by Gary Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs, I found myself on the phone with a high-ranking Texas administrator. The bowl game against Arkansas had happened. So did the disaster in South Bend. Then you had the missed PAT against Cal. Now this had happened to leave Charlie Strong 7-11 in his first 18 games as the Texas head coach.

This particular person I was on the phone with was beside himself. As someone who had watched from afar as the hiring of Strong had been made, he had previously been 100-percent all-in on Strong ... even when the cracks in the foundation had become obvious. With the Orangebloods message board resembling an out of control wildfire, hope had turned to despair.

"He's not going anywhere," the official said with the sound of defeat hanging onto every single word.

After a brief back and forth about where the Texas program was headed in its current state, a remark came out of his mouth that I've thought about every day of this current men's basketball season when Shaka Smart has looked like the wrong man for the job.

"We can't become the school that keeps having to buy its way out of its mistakes."

In this person's mind, buying out nearly 15 million of the remaining dollars on Strong's contract was completely off the table, if for no other reason than Strong's buyout itself would be just the beginning. After that huge sum of dead money was compiled, the school would need to payout remaining dollars on Strong's staff, perhaps a buyout to the school of the new coach and then a completely new contract with even more money attached to it.

"We are not made of money," he said rather sharply. "It's not 15 million. It's 20 million. Then it's 25 million. The athletic department cannot run itself as if financial responsibility doesn't matter."

A year later, when the school was in a position where it had to take action with the removal of Strong, I knew that swallowing 10 figures worth of dead money to make it happen wouldn't be taken lightly. I also knew that every single person who was involved in that situation would vow to never let that kind of financial disaster happen again.

Less than three years later, here we are again.

The Texas basketball program is floundering, the thirst for change is in the air and yet because of internal mistakes at the highest levels of the university between an acting athletic director and new school president, the Longhorns find themselves staring at at least $12 million wasted dollars. In order to possibly go out and fire the replacement that it might want (*cough* Chris Beard *cough*), the amount of money needed to make it happen will start to creep closely to 20 million, and that doesn't include the new amount of guaranteed money that arrives when that new contract is signed.

In conversations with a variety of people in places to have a pulse of the situation, buying out Smart's contract has been an absolute non-starter. Right or wrong, The University of Texas resides in a strange gray area, one that's obsessed with winning, but probably not obsessed enough to want to give the appearance that it is dangerously out of control to the academic watch-dog eyes that never taker its eyes off the Texas athletic department to watch something else.

Could not making the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons change the mood of the rooms that Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte operates in? Sure. Could it change it enough for change to occur in the next few weeks when it goes against what is supposed to be a re-commitment to financial responsibility in the department, especially when Del Conte is already involved in the single biggest fund-raising project in the history of the department?

I've still not had one person associated with the school suggest that the answer is yes.

Perhaps the more realistic change would involve Shaka Smart wanting to take another job in the off-season should a desirable opportunity become available. Smart has given no indications that he wants to leave Austin, but he has to know that he's skating on thin ice entering next season. If the right job popped up and he wanted to take it, I can't imagine anyone at Texas would block his departure.

Beyond that, it's just hard to see a change occurring after this season.

Perhaps a win-at-all-costs type of action would represent exactly what you want the decision-makers at Texas to display in this situation, but from my perspective it's the last type of message and decision-making they personally want to represent.

No. 2 - Unintended positive consequences ...

With all due respect to the discussion centering around the idea that incoming transfer Parker Braun could redshirt this season, I'm going to assume that the one of the two best players in the program for the 2019 season is actually going to play for the Longhorns.

Silly me, I know.

Therefore, with the knowledge that Sam Cosmi and Zach Shackelford are almost certainly going to be on the field as well at left tackle and center, respectively, Texas offensive line coach Herb Hand has something at his disposal this spring that is worth its weight in gold ... urgency.

Whether we're talking Denzel Okafor or Derek Kerstetter or Junior Angilau or Tope Imade or Tyler Johnson or anyone else on that line getting reps in the spring, they will know the score that exists - tons of bodies for two spots.

In order for any of those guys to move into the starting line-up in the fall, they better make sure that they are somewhere in the top two of that group. Period.

This Texas offensive line has a chance to be really good this year, but it's only going to be as good as its weakest and second-weakest links. The sense of urgency that suddenly exists for most of the offensive linemen in the program could help ensure that those weak links aren't so weak after all.

No. 3 - Vince Young will be 36 years old in May ...

Look, it's not my job to tell Vince Young to grow up.

Frankly, if he doesn't want to work a gimmie-job that pays him nearly six figures per year, that's on him. Maybe he has so much money saved up from his 20s that he doesn't need the hassle of a job, even one that would see him make a salary that would be the envy of many. Maybe not, but maybe this is the way it is and he's just too busy, even for an alma mater that dearly wanted to take care of him.

However, there's no looking past the fact that The University of Texas just fired the greatest player in school history “for not demonstrating significant and sustained improvement in the performance of (his) job responsibilities and failing to maintain standards of conduct suitable and acceptable to the university.”

That's just not just embarrassing, it's sloppy.

On the heels of yet another alleged drunk-driving incident, I'm not sure what to think other than he's in complete denial if his tweets and re-tweets over the weekend mean anything at all.



Yup, don't believe those arrest reports. Don't believe the numerous job warnings in his personal file. Don't believe the no-shows on the job. Don't believe anything except that everyone continues to be against him all the time, apparently even the school that worships him to such a degree that it created his ridiculous job position in the first place.

No. 4 - Something for all of us to bird-dog ...

Kudos to Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte for being willing to tackle any subject on Twitter. Here's hoping he finds a way to make this happen.



No. 5 - Humbled ...

After an emphatic sweep over LSU last weekend, the Texas baseball team learned how the other half lives in the final three games of its series against No. 6 Stanford.

As if getting outscored 12-3 over the course of the next 22 innings of baseball and losing two games wasn't bad enough, then the fourth inning on Sunday happened. I'm not sure how long the damn thing officially lasted, but I feel like it must have been an hour, as Stanford dropped a snowman on the Longhorns.

Momma always said there would be days like this, but surely she didn't mean this, right?

What remained after the Longhorns dropped three out of four on the road in Cali this weekend is a team that learned it can't operate at 50-percent if it wants to realize the results from last week every single week. There's no reason for panic or road rage, but it's a reminder that in a long season, highs and lows will exist. This was a low.

With conference play beginning next week, Texas merely needs to dust itself off and move on. Bigger games await.

No. 6 - Almost two weeks to regroup ...

If I'm Karen Aston, I might give my team the next week off to completely recharge before going into the NCAA Tournament.

After losing to Iowa State on Sunday for the second time in a week, the Longhorns just look like a team that has hit the wall with its fourth loss in the last seven games. The Longhorns didn't always play well on Sunday, but they battled all the way until the bitter end, only to get slightly out-executed in the final six minutes of the game.

Go enjoy some SXSW, maybe go home for some love from the family and just forget about basketball for the next week. That should be the memo to the players from Aston because when the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed next week, this team will have one four-team tournament remaining in an effort to salvage a season that has felt like a lost one of sorts.

However, back to back wins would put this team in the Sweet 16, which would suddenly change some of the value of this season. While it won't be easy (and will almost certainly have to take place away from home), it's not impossible ... just improbable.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif


BUY or SELL: Texas signs a grad transfer RB between now and the summer?

(Sell) I'm leaning towards the unlikelihood that someone that both becomes available and choses Texas over the rest of the field ... oh ... and they'd also have to be better than what Texas already has.

BUY or SELL: Casey Thompson has to start 1 game and play in at least 2 games due to an injury to Sam?

(Sell) I think it might be safe to say he'll need to make a start at some point in 2019, but I'm not sure Thompson will be asked to win three games for the Longhorns.

BUY or SELL: Mookie Cooper realizes he made a mistake and at some point he recommits to the good guys?

(Sell) These situations rarely work out that way.

BUY or SELL: Chris Beard is the next hoops basketball coach?

(Buy) 2020.

BUY or SELL: We are sitting at 2 DL and 4 OL commits by the end of July. Dorbah, Broughton and Lindberg commit to Texas to reach those numbers?

(Buy) Sure, why not? I think Texas gets all three, so it's only a matter of when.

BUY or SELL: Sam’s tweets last week mean he will go pro after 2019, assuming he has a good junior season? He’s tired of being exploited.

(Sell) He might not believe in the feel-good propaganda that the NCAA pushes as it relates to this discussion, but I don't see the decision after this season impacted greatly by a rush to get away from a system he thinks needs changes.

BUY or SELL: Texas wins the Big 12 and is in the playoffs this year?

(Sell) I can see Texas winning the Big 12, but I'm not sure it means a trip to the playoffs. Texas might still need another year of evolving before that happens.

BUY or SELL: LJH is not going to get drafted, but will sign with Dallas and will replace Cole Beasley?

(Sell) He's going to get drafted in the fifth round.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the epic battle of Winterfell, Jon, Danny, Brienne, Arya, Tormund, Bran, Podrick and Jamie are all dead.

(Sell) Jon lives, Danny dies in child-birth, Brienne lives, Arya dies, Tormund dies, Bran lives, Podrick lives and Jamie dies.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Spring is here!


... Ja Morant in the NCAA Tournament has a chance to be a lot of fun.

... It's good to be Antonio Brown, huh? It just goes to show that if you are elite of the elite, you can pretty much do whatever the hell you please and someone will still willingly give you $30 million. Don't hate the playa, hate the game.

... NFL Player Tweet of the Weekend


... A-Rod and J-Low are engaged. Good for them.

... Bryce Harper went to the Mick Foley School of Cutting a Promo...


... I'll take "Things That Would Never Happen in American Football", Alex...


... The final eight weeks worth of Premier League games are going to bananas. Just keep grinding, Reds.

... I didn't know Junior dos Santos still had that in him.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 UT buzz-names for the spring ...

Here's a look at the names on the Texas roster that I'm predicting will generate the most positive buzz for the next month during spring drills (not including starters from last season):

10. Josh Moore
9. Denzel Okafor
8. Casey Thompson
7. Bru McCoy
6. DeMarvion Overshown
5. Taquan Graham
4. Brennan Eagles
3. Cade Brewer
2. Jalen Green
1. Joseph Ossai

No. 10 – And Finally ...

The Longhorns lost one of their own this weekend with word that former school president Bill Powers passed away at the age of 72.

In a touching note to all Longhorns, current president Greg Fenves wrote, "Bill quoted Margaret Mead, 'Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” In many ways, that sentence defines Bill Powers. He was one of those thoughtful, committed citizens. He changed UT. He changed Texas. He changed the world.'"

Powerful words.

Rest in peace, Bill.


“Sloppy” is not the word I would have used. UT must know more issues re VY for that type of statement about you’re most storied player in the last 4 decades. Doubt it was just two DUIs and never calling anyone back...
 
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Nice work, but I just have to disagree that an O line is only as good as it's weakest link: "This Texas offensive line has a chance to be really good this year, but it's only going to be as good as its weakest and second-weakest links."
The 2016 team had an All-American at left tackle and was still wretched.
 
Ugh. That date was the last time I saw my old man and the last game of the many we watched together over the years.
 
Yup, don't believe those arrest reports. Don't believe the numerous job warnings in his personal file. Don't believe the no-shows on the job. Don't believe anything except that everyone continues to be against him all the time, apparently even the school that worships him to such a degree that it created his ridiculous job position in the first place.

I give @Ketchum some jabs for being a SJW from time to time but this is an accurate and probably a really hard to type portrayal of a Mount Rushmore of Texas football. Could you ever imagine Billy Liucci giving Manziel the same treatment? Nah, BL would be drinking right there with him slurping up his seconds.

On that note, VY need to get his shit together.
 
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Excellent article! So very insightful!

Thanks for breaking it out on the challenges of firing Smart. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Unfortunately, I see Shaka being given one more year.

Not much sympathy from me in regards to Vince. We’ve all had our time being in dumbass mode. Most of us out grow it and move on with our lives. For whatever reason he is either unwilling or incapable of taking the necessary steps toward maturity.

I will always wish him well....but from here on out it’s on him.
 
I hope you are right about Casey Thompson. I haven’t heard great things about him, espically his throwing, and that was from the father of an offensive skill player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Roschon beat him out as backup by fall.

Probably wishful thinking, but if Shaka knows he is on the way out, working out a change of scenery for him before getting canned could be the best thing for everyone. Interestingly, Chip told a large group of alumni two years ago that Shaka was in way over his head, and was a horrible hire.
 
Having to continue to swallow dead money is seen as being out of control, especially with the amount of money Texas has already swallowed.

I literally wrote the first section of the column about it.

Why does eating dead money matter to these people if the lion share is coming from donations or alumni that want change and have passed the hat? I guess I just assumed or read on here that Strong’s buyout was picked up by alumni or at the very least no new money would be coming from those alumni if he wasn’t fired, which is the same thing.
 
Excellent article! So very insightful!

Thanks for breaking it out on the challenges of firing Smart. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Unfortunately, I see Shaka being given one more year.

Not much sympathy from me in regards to Vince. We’ve all had our time being in dumbass mode. Most of us out grow it and move on with our lives. For whatever reason he is either unwilling or incapable of taking the necessary steps toward maturity.

I will always wish him well....but from here on out it’s on him.
Thanks for the kind words!
 
Damn, man. Sorry to bring up an awful memory. :(

No worries man, a while ago now and I was lucky to have had some last beers with him regardless of the sh*t show of a game that day.
 
When are we moving into the new, smaller capacity arena? I think that move predicates when we hire a new coach
 
I believe Shaka has some of the finest personal qualities coaches nowadays can have---hard-working, excellent communicator, close personal relationship with players and families and this shows in the consistently strong recruiting. I believe he has shown he can coach his players too. I'm hoping---and expecting---a much better record next year. I'm strong for Shaka.
 
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This...point #1 is entirely invalid.

It's not, "wait out another year of Shaka and we save $10 million"...Shaka is already a financial albatross, period, full stop. He is going to cost us >$10mm whether we fire him this year, or next...and likely more given the fan apathy and crappy attendance.
That’s my point.

I can’t imagine the power brokers including CDC and Fenves don’t understand this.

Waiting a year does very little to help the situation.
 
Cool. I guess I won’t be watching or attending basketball games for at least another 18 months. Yippee.
 
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I believe Shaka has some of the finest personal qualities coaches nowadays can have---hard-working, excellent communicator, close personal relationship with players and families and this shows in the consistently strong recruiting. I believe he has shown he can coach his players too. I'm hoping---and expecting---a much better record next year. I'm strong for Shaka.
Wow.
 
If Shaka is back I hope not one fan steps foot in the Drum. Don’t follow that shit show , don’t tweet, treat that program like its dead.

**** that dude! Write the check and be done with that loser.
 
Here's how I think everyone should view the money.

Over the course of the next four years, the Longhorns are on the hook for $12 million ish.

In order to hire Chris Beard, you'd have to add his buyout, plus the next four years of his deal, which let's just put in the $12 million range.

Suddenly, instead of a $12 million investment over four years, you're talking about a $30 million cost over the same window... at a minimum.

Those are the real costs... costs I'm not sure Texas is prepared for.
Unless Texas let's Shaka coach out the life of his contact, none of that matters. Beard's price only goes up the longer we wait. If Tech extends him again this offseason (pretty much a given if he makes a strong showing in the tourney with all of the Texas talk), then Texas will be on the hook for even more next offseason. The only decisions that are on the table are 1. Fire Shaka now and eat some dead money, or 2. Let him continue coaching and hire a new coach when his contact expires.
In a situation where both decisions are tough, take the one that potentially makes you more than it costs you. Fire Shaka and breathe life into your basketball program
 


The date was October 3, 2015.

Moments after the Texas Longhorns had been humiliated to the tune of 50-7 by Gary Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs, I found myself on the phone with a high-ranking Texas administrator. The bowl game against Arkansas had happened. So did the disaster in South Bend. Then you had the missed PAT against Cal. Now this had happened to leave Charlie Strong 7-11 in his first 18 games as the Texas head coach.

This particular person I was on the phone with was beside himself. As someone who had watched from afar as the hiring of Strong had been made, he had previously been 100-percent all-in on Strong ... even when the cracks in the foundation had become obvious. With the Orangebloods message board resembling an out of control wildfire, hope had turned to despair.

"He's not going anywhere," the official said with the sound of defeat hanging onto every single word.

After a brief back and forth about where the Texas program was headed in its current state, a remark came out of his mouth that I've thought about every day of this current men's basketball season when Shaka Smart has looked like the wrong man for the job.

"We can't become the school that keeps having to buy its way out of its mistakes."

In this person's mind, buying out nearly 15 million of the remaining dollars on Strong's contract was completely off the table, if for no other reason than Strong's buyout itself would be just the beginning. After that huge sum of dead money was compiled, the school would need to payout remaining dollars on Strong's staff, perhaps a buyout to the school of the new coach and then a completely new contract with even more money attached to it.

"We are not made of money," he said rather sharply. "It's not 15 million. It's 20 million. Then it's 25 million. The athletic department cannot run itself as if financial responsibility doesn't matter."

A year later, when the school was in a position where it had to take action with the removal of Strong, I knew that swallowing 10 figures worth of dead money to make it happen wouldn't be taken lightly. I also knew that every single person who was involved in that situation would vow to never let that kind of financial disaster happen again.

Less than three years later, here we are again.

The Texas basketball program is floundering, the thirst for change is in the air and yet because of internal mistakes at the highest levels of the university between an acting athletic director and new school president, the Longhorns find themselves staring at at least $12 million wasted dollars. In order to possibly go out and fire the replacement that it might want (*cough* Chris Beard *cough*), the amount of money needed to make it happen will start to creep closely to 20 million, and that doesn't include the new amount of guaranteed money that arrives when that new contract is signed.

In conversations with a variety of people in places to have a pulse of the situation, buying out Smart's contract has been an absolute non-starter. Right or wrong, The University of Texas resides in a strange gray area, one that's obsessed with winning, but probably not obsessed enough to want to give the appearance that it is dangerously out of control to the academic watch-dog eyes that never taker its eyes off the Texas athletic department to watch something else.

Could not making the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons change the mood of the rooms that Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte operates in? Sure. Could it change it enough for change to occur in the next few weeks when it goes against what is supposed to be a re-commitment to financial responsibility in the department, especially when Del Conte is already involved in the single biggest fund-raising project in the history of the department?

I've still not had one person associated with the school suggest that the answer is yes.

Perhaps the more realistic change would involve Shaka Smart wanting to take another job in the off-season should a desirable opportunity become available. Smart has given no indications that he wants to leave Austin, but he has to know that he's skating on thin ice entering next season. If the right job popped up and he wanted to take it, I can't imagine anyone at Texas would block his departure.

Beyond that, it's just hard to see a change occurring after this season.

Perhaps a win-at-all-costs type of action would represent exactly what you want the decision-makers at Texas to display in this situation, but from my perspective it's the last type of message and decision-making they personally want to represent.

No. 2 - Unintended positive consequences ...

With all due respect to the discussion centering around the idea that incoming transfer Parker Braun could redshirt this season, I'm going to assume that the one of the two best players in the program for the 2019 season is actually going to play for the Longhorns.

Silly me, I know.

Therefore, with the knowledge that Sam Cosmi and Zach Shackelford are almost certainly going to be on the field as well at left tackle and center, respectively, Texas offensive line coach Herb Hand has something at his disposal this spring that is worth its weight in gold ... urgency.

Whether we're talking Denzel Okafor or Derek Kerstetter or Junior Angilau or Tope Imade or Tyler Johnson or anyone else on that line getting reps in the spring, they will know the score that exists - tons of bodies for two spots.

In order for any of those guys to move into the starting line-up in the fall, they better make sure that they are somewhere in the top two of that group. Period.

This Texas offensive line has a chance to be really good this year, but it's only going to be as good as its weakest and second-weakest links. The sense of urgency that suddenly exists for most of the offensive linemen in the program could help ensure that those weak links aren't so weak after all.

No. 3 - Vince Young will be 36 years old in May ...

Look, it's not my job to tell Vince Young to grow up.

Frankly, if he doesn't want to work a gimmie-job that pays him nearly six figures per year, that's on him. Maybe he has so much money saved up from his 20s that he doesn't need the hassle of a job, even one that would see him make a salary that would be the envy of many. Maybe not, but maybe this is the way it is and he's just too busy, even for an alma mater that dearly wanted to take care of him.

However, there's no looking past the fact that The University of Texas just fired the greatest player in school history “for not demonstrating significant and sustained improvement in the performance of (his) job responsibilities and failing to maintain standards of conduct suitable and acceptable to the university.”

That's just not just embarrassing, it's sloppy.

On the heels of yet another alleged drunk-driving incident, I'm not sure what to think other than he's in complete denial if his tweets and re-tweets over the weekend mean anything at all.



Yup, don't believe those arrest reports. Don't believe the numerous job warnings in his personal file. Don't believe the no-shows on the job. Don't believe anything except that everyone continues to be against him all the time, apparently even the school that worships him to such a degree that it created his ridiculous job position in the first place.

No. 4 - Something for all of us to bird-dog ...

Kudos to Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte for being willing to tackle any subject on Twitter. Here's hoping he finds a way to make this happen.



No. 5 - Humbled ...

After an emphatic sweep over LSU last weekend, the Texas baseball team learned how the other half lives in the final three games of its series against No. 6 Stanford.

As if getting outscored 12-3 over the course of the next 22 innings of baseball and losing two games wasn't bad enough, then the fourth inning on Sunday happened. I'm not sure how long the damn thing officially lasted, but I feel like it must have been an hour, as Stanford dropped a snowman on the Longhorns.

Momma always said there would be days like this, but surely she didn't mean this, right?

What remained after the Longhorns dropped three out of four on the road in Cali this weekend is a team that learned it can't operate at 50-percent if it wants to realize the results from last week every single week. There's no reason for panic or road rage, but it's a reminder that in a long season, highs and lows will exist. This was a low.

With conference play beginning next week, Texas merely needs to dust itself off and move on. Bigger games await.

No. 6 - Almost two weeks to regroup ...

If I'm Karen Aston, I might give my team the next week off to completely recharge before going into the NCAA Tournament.

After losing to Iowa State on Sunday for the second time in a week, the Longhorns just look like a team that has hit the wall with its fourth loss in the last seven games. The Longhorns didn't always play well on Sunday, but they battled all the way until the bitter end, only to get slightly out-executed in the final six minutes of the game.

Go enjoy some SXSW, maybe go home for some love from the family and just forget about basketball for the next week. That should be the memo to the players from Aston because when the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed next week, this team will have one four-team tournament remaining in an effort to salvage a season that has felt like a lost one of sorts.

However, back to back wins would put this team in the Sweet 16, which would suddenly change some of the value of this season. While it won't be easy (and will almost certainly have to take place away from home), it's not impossible ... just improbable.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif


BUY or SELL: Texas signs a grad transfer RB between now and the summer?

(Sell) I'm leaning towards the unlikelihood that someone that both becomes available and choses Texas over the rest of the field ... oh ... and they'd also have to be better than what Texas already has.

BUY or SELL: Casey Thompson has to start 1 game and play in at least 2 games due to an injury to Sam?

(Sell) I think it might be safe to say he'll need to make a start at some point in 2019, but I'm not sure Thompson will be asked to win three games for the Longhorns.

BUY or SELL: Mookie Cooper realizes he made a mistake and at some point he recommits to the good guys?

(Sell) These situations rarely work out that way.

BUY or SELL: Chris Beard is the next hoops basketball coach?

(Buy) 2020.

BUY or SELL: We are sitting at 2 DL and 4 OL commits by the end of July. Dorbah, Broughton and Lindberg commit to Texas to reach those numbers?

(Buy) Sure, why not? I think Texas gets all three, so it's only a matter of when.

BUY or SELL: Sam’s tweets last week mean he will go pro after 2019, assuming he has a good junior season? He’s tired of being exploited.

(Sell) He might not believe in the feel-good propaganda that the NCAA pushes as it relates to this discussion, but I don't see the decision after this season impacted greatly by a rush to get away from a system he thinks needs changes.

BUY or SELL: Texas wins the Big 12 and is in the playoffs this year?

(Sell) I can see Texas winning the Big 12, but I'm not sure it means a trip to the playoffs. Texas might still need another year of evolving before that happens.

BUY or SELL: LJH is not going to get drafted, but will sign with Dallas and will replace Cole Beasley?

(Sell) He's going to get drafted in the fifth round.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the epic battle of Winterfell, Jon, Danny, Brienne, Arya, Tormund, Bran, Podrick and Jamie are all dead.

(Sell) Jon lives, Danny dies in child-birth, Brienne lives, Arya dies, Tormund dies, Bran lives, Podrick lives and Jamie dies.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Spring is here!


... Ja Morant in the NCAA Tournament has a chance to be a lot of fun.

... It's good to be Antonio Brown, huh? It just goes to show that if you are elite of the elite, you can pretty much do whatever the hell you please and someone will still willingly give you $30 million. Don't hate the playa, hate the game.

... NFL Player Tweet of the Weekend


... A-Rod and J-Low are engaged. Good for them.

... Bryce Harper went to the Mick Foley School of Cutting a Promo...


... I'll take "Things That Would Never Happen in American Football", Alex...


... The final eight weeks worth of Premier League games are going to bananas. Just keep grinding, Reds.

... I didn't know Junior dos Santos still had that in him.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 UT buzz-names for the spring ...

Here's a look at the names on the Texas roster that I'm predicting will generate the most positive buzz for the next month during spring drills (not including starters from last season):

10. Josh Moore
9. Denzel Okafor
8. Casey Thompson
7. Bru McCoy
6. DeMarvion Overshown
5. Taquan Graham
4. Brennan Eagles
3. Cade Brewer
2. Jalen Green
1. Joseph Ossai

No. 10 – And Finally ...

The Longhorns lost one of their own this weekend with word that former school president Bill Powers passed away at the age of 72.

In a touching note to all Longhorns, current president Greg Fenves wrote, "Bill quoted Margaret Mead, 'Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” In many ways, that sentence defines Bill Powers. He was one of those thoughtful, committed citizens. He changed UT. He changed Texas. He changed the world.'"

Powerful words.

Rest in peace, Bill.

4,000 seats not bought at $40 per seat x 12 homes games = $2 million. Plus lost food and drinks. Plus lost merchandise sales. Terminate now.
 
The total amount of money it would cost to rebuilt the program goes well beyond 3.2 million. I'm not sure why some of you keep thinking it's that simple when it was explained in the column that it isn't.

I' think what that guy was saying was so we have to put up with this clown next year, then he gets fired, all the same stuff happens, and we only save 3 million when a program folks are hot for would make a lot more money across the board.
 
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Here's how I see it:

- Fire Shaka and pay buyout, Beard's (or other replacement's) buyout, and pay a higher salary for new hire
- Beard will get another raise after this season; and, his buyout will be increased
- Wait until next season to fire Shaka, and you didn't really save a penny if Beard is your target
#2 here is important re: Beard. Tech just won the conference and a new contract with a raise is likely already being discussed. If Tech is smart they will jack up the buyout as part of the deal. Texas will get priced out of Beard regardless. Maybe someone else is a better choice and Texas will likely have to find out.
 
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it is always so stupid that schools throw out these huge contract extensions & than live to regret them. Look at Auburn that gave Malzan a huge deal now they can't fire him. It just seems like schools panic when a coach has a good year & they hear he might leave & boom huge contract extension. I know that is what happened with Smart & now here we are. No doubt it is going to cost UT a lot of money to fire him but if we bring him back next year it going to be a death watch on the program.
 
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The date was October 3, 2015.

Moments after the Texas Longhorns had been humiliated to the tune of 50-7 by Gary Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs, I found myself on the phone with a high-ranking Texas administrator. The bowl game against Arkansas had happened. So did the disaster in South Bend. Then you had the missed PAT against Cal. Now this had happened to leave Charlie Strong 7-11 in his first 18 games as the Texas head coach.

This particular person I was on the phone with was beside himself. As someone who had watched from afar as the hiring of Strong had been made, he had previously been 100-percent all-in on Strong ... even when the cracks in the foundation had become obvious. With the Orangebloods message board resembling an out of control wildfire, hope had turned to despair.

"He's not going anywhere," the official said with the sound of defeat hanging onto every single word.

After a brief back and forth about where the Texas program was headed in its current state, a remark came out of his mouth that I've thought about every day of this current men's basketball season when Shaka Smart has looked like the wrong man for the job.

"We can't become the school that keeps having to buy its way out of its mistakes."

In this person's mind, buying out nearly 15 million of the remaining dollars on Strong's contract was completely off the table, if for no other reason than Strong's buyout itself would be just the beginning. After that huge sum of dead money was compiled, the school would need to payout remaining dollars on Strong's staff, perhaps a buyout to the school of the new coach and then a completely new contract with even more money attached to it.

"We are not made of money," he said rather sharply. "It's not 15 million. It's 20 million. Then it's 25 million. The athletic department cannot run itself as if financial responsibility doesn't matter."

A year later, when the school was in a position where it had to take action with the removal of Strong, I knew that swallowing 10 figures worth of dead money to make it happen wouldn't be taken lightly. I also knew that every single person who was involved in that situation would vow to never let that kind of financial disaster happen again.

Less than three years later, here we are again.

The Texas basketball program is floundering, the thirst for change is in the air and yet because of internal mistakes at the highest levels of the university between an acting athletic director and new school president, the Longhorns find themselves staring at at least $12 million wasted dollars. In order to possibly go out and fire the replacement that it might want (*cough* Chris Beard *cough*), the amount of money needed to make it happen will start to creep closely to 20 million, and that doesn't include the new amount of guaranteed money that arrives when that new contract is signed.

In conversations with a variety of people in places to have a pulse of the situation, buying out Smart's contract has been an absolute non-starter. Right or wrong, The University of Texas resides in a strange gray area, one that's obsessed with winning, but probably not obsessed enough to want to give the appearance that it is dangerously out of control to the academic watch-dog eyes that never taker its eyes off the Texas athletic department to watch something else.

Could not making the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons change the mood of the rooms that Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte operates in? Sure. Could it change it enough for change to occur in the next few weeks when it goes against what is supposed to be a re-commitment to financial responsibility in the department, especially when Del Conte is already involved in the single biggest fund-raising project in the history of the department?

I've still not had one person associated with the school suggest that the answer is yes.

Perhaps the more realistic change would involve Shaka Smart wanting to take another job in the off-season should a desirable opportunity become available. Smart has given no indications that he wants to leave Austin, but he has to know that he's skating on thin ice entering next season. If the right job popped up and he wanted to take it, I can't imagine anyone at Texas would block his departure.

Beyond that, it's just hard to see a change occurring after this season.

Perhaps a win-at-all-costs type of action would represent exactly what you want the decision-makers at Texas to display in this situation, but from my perspective it's the last type of message and decision-making they personally want to represent.

How much money did CDC and The University save on their arrangement for the new basketball facility? The one where they aren't paying anything for the new facility. That was athletic budget money, correct? I hate that Texas screwed up and committed that much money to a coach like him but what is the opportunity cost with keeping him? Mistakes were made. That sucks but your can't relive this crap show.
 
Very scary. I've heard them say they may take a lot of points away from Birmingham as a way of scaring copy cats.

Don’t think they will take away points. Most pundits are stating that B City will have to play behind closed doors (no fans) for at least 2 games possibly more with the warning that if it happens again they are toast
 


The date was October 3, 2015.

Moments after the Texas Longhorns had been humiliated to the tune of 50-7 by Gary Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs, I found myself on the phone with a high-ranking Texas administrator. The bowl game against Arkansas had happened. So did the disaster in South Bend. Then you had the missed PAT against Cal. Now this had happened to leave Charlie Strong 7-11 in his first 18 games as the Texas head coach.

This particular person I was on the phone with was beside himself. As someone who had watched from afar as the hiring of Strong had been made, he had previously been 100-percent all-in on Strong ... even when the cracks in the foundation had become obvious. With the Orangebloods message board resembling an out of control wildfire, hope had turned to despair.

"He's not going anywhere," the official said with the sound of defeat hanging onto every single word.

After a brief back and forth about where the Texas program was headed in its current state, a remark came out of his mouth that I've thought about every day of this current men's basketball season when Shaka Smart has looked like the wrong man for the job.

"We can't become the school that keeps having to buy its way out of its mistakes."

In this person's mind, buying out nearly 15 million of the remaining dollars on Strong's contract was completely off the table, if for no other reason than Strong's buyout itself would be just the beginning. After that huge sum of dead money was compiled, the school would need to payout remaining dollars on Strong's staff, perhaps a buyout to the school of the new coach and then a completely new contract with even more money attached to it.

"We are not made of money," he said rather sharply. "It's not 15 million. It's 20 million. Then it's 25 million. The athletic department cannot run itself as if financial responsibility doesn't matter."

A year later, when the school was in a position where it had to take action with the removal of Strong, I knew that swallowing 10 figures worth of dead money to make it happen wouldn't be taken lightly. I also knew that every single person who was involved in that situation would vow to never let that kind of financial disaster happen again.

Less than three years later, here we are again.

The Texas basketball program is floundering, the thirst for change is in the air and yet because of internal mistakes at the highest levels of the university between an acting athletic director and new school president, the Longhorns find themselves staring at at least $12 million wasted dollars. In order to possibly go out and fire the replacement that it might want (*cough* Chris Beard *cough*), the amount of money needed to make it happen will start to creep closely to 20 million, and that doesn't include the new amount of guaranteed money that arrives when that new contract is signed.

In conversations with a variety of people in places to have a pulse of the situation, buying out Smart's contract has been an absolute non-starter. Right or wrong, The University of Texas resides in a strange gray area, one that's obsessed with winning, but probably not obsessed enough to want to give the appearance that it is dangerously out of control to the academic watch-dog eyes that never taker its eyes off the Texas athletic department to watch something else.

Could not making the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons change the mood of the rooms that Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte operates in? Sure. Could it change it enough for change to occur in the next few weeks when it goes against what is supposed to be a re-commitment to financial responsibility in the department, especially when Del Conte is already involved in the single biggest fund-raising project in the history of the department?

I've still not had one person associated with the school suggest that the answer is yes.

Perhaps the more realistic change would involve Shaka Smart wanting to take another job in the off-season should a desirable opportunity become available. Smart has given no indications that he wants to leave Austin, but he has to know that he's skating on thin ice entering next season. If the right job popped up and he wanted to take it, I can't imagine anyone at Texas would block his departure.

Beyond that, it's just hard to see a change occurring after this season.

Perhaps a win-at-all-costs type of action would represent exactly what you want the decision-makers at Texas to display in this situation, but from my perspective it's the last type of message and decision-making they personally want to represent.

No. 2 - Unintended positive consequences ...

With all due respect to the discussion centering around the idea that incoming transfer Parker Braun could redshirt this season, I'm going to assume that the one of the two best players in the program for the 2019 season is actually going to play for the Longhorns.

Silly me, I know.

Therefore, with the knowledge that Sam Cosmi and Zach Shackelford are almost certainly going to be on the field as well at left tackle and center, respectively, Texas offensive line coach Herb Hand has something at his disposal this spring that is worth its weight in gold ... urgency.

Whether we're talking Denzel Okafor or Derek Kerstetter or Junior Angilau or Tope Imade or Tyler Johnson or anyone else on that line getting reps in the spring, they will know the score that exists - tons of bodies for two spots.

In order for any of those guys to move into the starting line-up in the fall, they better make sure that they are somewhere in the top two of that group. Period.

This Texas offensive line has a chance to be really good this year, but it's only going to be as good as its weakest and second-weakest links. The sense of urgency that suddenly exists for most of the offensive linemen in the program could help ensure that those weak links aren't so weak after all.

No. 3 - Vince Young will be 36 years old in May ...

Look, it's not my job to tell Vince Young to grow up.

Frankly, if he doesn't want to work a gimmie-job that pays him nearly six figures per year, that's on him. Maybe he has so much money saved up from his 20s that he doesn't need the hassle of a job, even one that would see him make a salary that would be the envy of many. Maybe not, but maybe this is the way it is and he's just too busy, even for an alma mater that dearly wanted to take care of him.

However, there's no looking past the fact that The University of Texas just fired the greatest player in school history “for not demonstrating significant and sustained improvement in the performance of (his) job responsibilities and failing to maintain standards of conduct suitable and acceptable to the university.”

That's just not just embarrassing, it's sloppy.

On the heels of yet another alleged drunk-driving incident, I'm not sure what to think other than he's in complete denial if his tweets and re-tweets over the weekend mean anything at all.



Yup, don't believe those arrest reports. Don't believe the numerous job warnings in his personal file. Don't believe the no-shows on the job. Don't believe anything except that everyone continues to be against him all the time, apparently even the school that worships him to such a degree that it created his ridiculous job position in the first place.

No. 4 - Something for all of us to bird-dog ...

Kudos to Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte for being willing to tackle any subject on Twitter. Here's hoping he finds a way to make this happen.



No. 5 - Humbled ...

After an emphatic sweep over LSU last weekend, the Texas baseball team learned how the other half lives in the final three games of its series against No. 6 Stanford.

As if getting outscored 12-3 over the course of the next 22 innings of baseball and losing two games wasn't bad enough, then the fourth inning on Sunday happened. I'm not sure how long the damn thing officially lasted, but I feel like it must have been an hour, as Stanford dropped a snowman on the Longhorns.

Momma always said there would be days like this, but surely she didn't mean this, right?

What remained after the Longhorns dropped three out of four on the road in Cali this weekend is a team that learned it can't operate at 50-percent if it wants to realize the results from last week every single week. There's no reason for panic or road rage, but it's a reminder that in a long season, highs and lows will exist. This was a low.

With conference play beginning next week, Texas merely needs to dust itself off and move on. Bigger games await.

No. 6 - Almost two weeks to regroup ...

If I'm Karen Aston, I might give my team the next week off to completely recharge before going into the NCAA Tournament.

After losing to Iowa State on Sunday for the second time in a week, the Longhorns just look like a team that has hit the wall with its fourth loss in the last seven games. The Longhorns didn't always play well on Sunday, but they battled all the way until the bitter end, only to get slightly out-executed in the final six minutes of the game.

Go enjoy some SXSW, maybe go home for some love from the family and just forget about basketball for the next week. That should be the memo to the players from Aston because when the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed next week, this team will have one four-team tournament remaining in an effort to salvage a season that has felt like a lost one of sorts.

However, back to back wins would put this team in the Sweet 16, which would suddenly change some of the value of this season. While it won't be easy (and will almost certainly have to take place away from home), it's not impossible ... just improbable.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif


BUY or SELL: Texas signs a grad transfer RB between now and the summer?

(Sell) I'm leaning towards the unlikelihood that someone that both becomes available and choses Texas over the rest of the field ... oh ... and they'd also have to be better than what Texas already has.

BUY or SELL: Casey Thompson has to start 1 game and play in at least 2 games due to an injury to Sam?

(Sell) I think it might be safe to say he'll need to make a start at some point in 2019, but I'm not sure Thompson will be asked to win three games for the Longhorns.

BUY or SELL: Mookie Cooper realizes he made a mistake and at some point he recommits to the good guys?

(Sell) These situations rarely work out that way.

BUY or SELL: Chris Beard is the next hoops basketball coach?

(Buy) 2020.

BUY or SELL: We are sitting at 2 DL and 4 OL commits by the end of July. Dorbah, Broughton and Lindberg commit to Texas to reach those numbers?

(Buy) Sure, why not? I think Texas gets all three, so it's only a matter of when.

BUY or SELL: Sam’s tweets last week mean he will go pro after 2019, assuming he has a good junior season? He’s tired of being exploited.

(Sell) He might not believe in the feel-good propaganda that the NCAA pushes as it relates to this discussion, but I don't see the decision after this season impacted greatly by a rush to get away from a system he thinks needs changes.

BUY or SELL: Texas wins the Big 12 and is in the playoffs this year?

(Sell) I can see Texas winning the Big 12, but I'm not sure it means a trip to the playoffs. Texas might still need another year of evolving before that happens.

BUY or SELL: LJH is not going to get drafted, but will sign with Dallas and will replace Cole Beasley?

(Sell) He's going to get drafted in the fifth round.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the epic battle of Winterfell, Jon, Danny, Brienne, Arya, Tormund, Bran, Podrick and Jamie are all dead.

(Sell) Jon lives, Danny dies in child-birth, Brienne lives, Arya dies, Tormund dies, Bran lives, Podrick lives and Jamie dies.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Spring is here!


... Ja Morant in the NCAA Tournament has a chance to be a lot of fun.

... It's good to be Antonio Brown, huh? It just goes to show that if you are elite of the elite, you can pretty much do whatever the hell you please and someone will still willingly give you $30 million. Don't hate the playa, hate the game.

... NFL Player Tweet of the Weekend


... A-Rod and J-Low are engaged. Good for them.

... Bryce Harper went to the Mick Foley School of Cutting a Promo...


... I'll take "Things That Would Never Happen in American Football", Alex...


... The final eight weeks worth of Premier League games are going to bananas. Just keep grinding, Reds.

... I didn't know Junior dos Santos still had that in him.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 UT buzz-names for the spring ...

Here's a look at the names on the Texas roster that I'm predicting will generate the most positive buzz for the next month during spring drills (not including starters from last season):

10. Josh Moore
9. Denzel Okafor
8. Casey Thompson
7. Bru McCoy
6. DeMarvion Overshown
5. Taquan Graham
4. Brennan Eagles
3. Cade Brewer
2. Jalen Green
1. Joseph Ossai

No. 10 – And Finally ...

The Longhorns lost one of their own this weekend with word that former school president Bill Powers passed away at the age of 72.

In a touching note to all Longhorns, current president Greg Fenves wrote, "Bill quoted Margaret Mead, 'Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” In many ways, that sentence defines Bill Powers. He was one of those thoughtful, committed citizens. He changed UT. He changed Texas. He changed the world.'"

Powerful words.

Rest in peace, Bill.
Great stuff as usual and I agree with you GOT predictions. I will add I think Jamie kills Cersei and Jon becomes the reluctant sullen ruler
 
If Texas waits to fire Shaka next year it saves what? 3 million? Ok that's not really a whole lot in the grand scheme that is UT Athletics money. How much does Texas lose next season if Shaka is back because of low ticket sales and virtually no fan excitement? Does CDC really want an empty Erwin Center featured on ESPN? Does he really want to see Texas fans completely give up on basketball even as he is breaking ground on a new basketball arena? Texas officials know Shaka isn't gonna get it done and I bet they all know that if they don't fire him this year they'll be firing him next year and all they'll have done by waiting is save 3 million dollars at the cost of crippling the program even further and suffering a huge decline in ticket sales and fan involvement. Oh and good luck in recruiting for the upcoming class. No elite player is gonna commit to play for Shaka Smart when they know he is gonna get shitcanned at the end of the year. And if your high placed Texas official can't understand that the cost of keeping Shaka is a lot higher than the price of firing him now then he is damned idiot.
 
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