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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Trying to explain the thing that you're going to hate...)



The date was October 3, 2015.

Moments after the Texas Longhorns had been humiliated to the tune of 50-7 by Gary Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs, I found myself on the phone with a high-ranking Texas administrator. The bowl game against Arkansas had happened. So did the disaster in South Bend. Then you had the missed PAT against Cal. Now this had happened to leave Charlie Strong 7-11 in his first 18 games as the Texas head coach.

This particular person I was on the phone with was beside himself. As someone who had watched from afar as the hiring of Strong had been made, he had previously been 100-percent all-in on Strong ... even when the cracks in the foundation had become obvious. With the Orangebloods message board resembling an out of control wildfire, hope had turned to despair.

"He's not going anywhere," the official said with the sound of defeat hanging onto every single word.

After a brief back and forth about where the Texas program was headed in its current state, a remark came out of his mouth that I've thought about every day of this current men's basketball season when Shaka Smart has looked like the wrong man for the job.

"We can't become the school that keeps having to buy its way out of its mistakes."

In this person's mind, buying out nearly 15 million of the remaining dollars on Strong's contract was completely off the table, if for no other reason than Strong's buyout itself would be just the beginning. After that huge sum of dead money was compiled, the school would need to payout remaining dollars on Strong's staff, perhaps a buyout to the school of the new coach and then a completely new contract with even more money attached to it.

"We are not made of money," he said rather sharply. "It's not 15 million. It's 20 million. Then it's 25 million. The athletic department cannot run itself as if financial responsibility doesn't matter."

A year later, when the school was in a position where it had to take action with the removal of Strong, I knew that swallowing 10 figures worth of dead money to make it happen wouldn't be taken lightly. I also knew that every single person who was involved in that situation would vow to never let that kind of financial disaster happen again.

Less than three years later, here we are again.

The Texas basketball program is floundering, the thirst for change is in the air and yet because of internal mistakes at the highest levels of the university between an acting athletic director and new school president, the Longhorns find themselves staring at at least $12 million wasted dollars. In order to possibly go out and fire the replacement that it might want (*cough* Chris Beard *cough*), the amount of money needed to make it happen will start to creep closely to 20 million, and that doesn't include the new amount of guaranteed money that arrives when that new contract is signed.

In conversations with a variety of people in places to have a pulse of the situation, buying out Smart's contract has been an absolute non-starter. Right or wrong, The University of Texas resides in a strange gray area, one that's obsessed with winning, but probably not obsessed enough to want to give the appearance that it is dangerously out of control to the academic watch-dog eyes that never taker its eyes off the Texas athletic department to watch something else.

Could not making the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons change the mood of the rooms that Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte operates in? Sure. Could it change it enough for change to occur in the next few weeks when it goes against what is supposed to be a re-commitment to financial responsibility in the department, especially when Del Conte is already involved in the single biggest fund-raising project in the history of the department?

I've still not had one person associated with the school suggest that the answer is yes.

Perhaps the more realistic change would involve Shaka Smart wanting to take another job in the off-season should a desirable opportunity become available. Smart has given no indications that he wants to leave Austin, but he has to know that he's skating on thin ice entering next season. If the right job popped up and he wanted to take it, I can't imagine anyone at Texas would block his departure.

Beyond that, it's just hard to see a change occurring after this season.

Perhaps a win-at-all-costs type of action would represent exactly what you want the decision-makers at Texas to display in this situation, but from my perspective it's the last type of message and decision-making they personally want to represent.

No. 2 - Unintended positive consequences ...

With all due respect to the discussion centering around the idea that incoming transfer Parker Braun could redshirt this season, I'm going to assume that the one of the two best players in the program for the 2019 season is actually going to play for the Longhorns.

Silly me, I know.

Therefore, with the knowledge that Sam Cosmi and Zach Shackelford are almost certainly going to be on the field as well at left tackle and center, respectively, Texas offensive line coach Herb Hand has something at his disposal this spring that is worth its weight in gold ... urgency.

Whether we're talking Denzel Okafor or Derek Kerstetter or Junior Angilau or Tope Imade or Tyler Johnson or anyone else on that line getting reps in the spring, they will know the score that exists - tons of bodies for two spots.

In order for any of those guys to move into the starting line-up in the fall, they better make sure that they are somewhere in the top two of that group. Period.

This Texas offensive line has a chance to be really good this year, but it's only going to be as good as its weakest and second-weakest links. The sense of urgency that suddenly exists for most of the offensive linemen in the program could help ensure that those weak links aren't so weak after all.

No. 3 - Vince Young will be 36 years old in May ...

Look, it's not my job to tell Vince Young to grow up.

Frankly, if he doesn't want to work a gimmie-job that pays him nearly six figures per year, that's on him. Maybe he has so much money saved up from his 20s that he doesn't need the hassle of a job, even one that would see him make a salary that would be the envy of many. Maybe not, but maybe this is the way it is and he's just too busy, even for an alma mater that dearly wanted to take care of him.

However, there's no looking past the fact that The University of Texas just fired the greatest player in school history “for not demonstrating significant and sustained improvement in the performance of (his) job responsibilities and failing to maintain standards of conduct suitable and acceptable to the university.”

That's just not just embarrassing, it's sloppy.

On the heels of yet another alleged drunk-driving incident, I'm not sure what to think other than he's in complete denial if his tweets and re-tweets over the weekend mean anything at all.



Yup, don't believe those arrest reports. Don't believe the numerous job warnings in his personal file. Don't believe the no-shows on the job. Don't believe anything except that everyone continues to be against him all the time, apparently even the school that worships him to such a degree that it created his ridiculous job position in the first place.

No. 4 - Something for all of us to bird-dog ...

Kudos to Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte for being willing to tackle any subject on Twitter. Here's hoping he finds a way to make this happen.



No. 5 - Humbled ...

After an emphatic sweep over LSU last weekend, the Texas baseball team learned how the other half lives in the final three games of its series against No. 6 Stanford.

As if getting outscored 12-3 over the course of the next 22 innings of baseball and losing two games wasn't bad enough, then the fourth inning on Sunday happened. I'm not sure how long the damn thing officially lasted, but I feel like it must have been an hour, as Stanford dropped a snowman on the Longhorns.

Momma always said there would be days like this, but surely she didn't mean this, right?

What remained after the Longhorns dropped three out of four on the road in Cali this weekend is a team that learned it can't operate at 50-percent if it wants to realize the results from last week every single week. There's no reason for panic or road rage, but it's a reminder that in a long season, highs and lows will exist. This was a low.

With conference play beginning next week, Texas merely needs to dust itself off and move on. Bigger games await.

No. 6 - Almost two weeks to regroup ...

If I'm Karen Aston, I might give my team the next week off to completely recharge before going into the NCAA Tournament.

After losing to Iowa State on Sunday for the second time in a week, the Longhorns just look like a team that has hit the wall with its fourth loss in the last seven games. The Longhorns didn't always play well on Sunday, but they battled all the way until the bitter end, only to get slightly out-executed in the final six minutes of the game.

Go enjoy some SXSW, maybe go home for some love from the family and just forget about basketball for the next week. That should be the memo to the players from Aston because when the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed next week, this team will have one four-team tournament remaining in an effort to salvage a season that has felt like a lost one of sorts.

However, back to back wins would put this team in the Sweet 16, which would suddenly change some of the value of this season. While it won't be easy (and will almost certainly have to take place away from home), it's not impossible ... just improbable.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif


BUY or SELL: Texas signs a grad transfer RB between now and the summer?

(Sell) I'm leaning towards the unlikelihood that someone that both becomes available and choses Texas over the rest of the field ... oh ... and they'd also have to be better than what Texas already has.

BUY or SELL: Casey Thompson has to start 1 game and play in at least 2 games due to an injury to Sam?

(Sell) I think it might be safe to say he'll need to make a start at some point in 2019, but I'm not sure Thompson will be asked to win three games for the Longhorns.

BUY or SELL: Mookie Cooper realizes he made a mistake and at some point he recommits to the good guys?

(Sell) These situations rarely work out that way.

BUY or SELL: Chris Beard is the next hoops basketball coach?

(Buy) 2020.

BUY or SELL: We are sitting at 2 DL and 4 OL commits by the end of July. Dorbah, Broughton and Lindberg commit to Texas to reach those numbers?

(Buy) Sure, why not? I think Texas gets all three, so it's only a matter of when.

BUY or SELL: Sam’s tweets last week mean he will go pro after 2019, assuming he has a good junior season? He’s tired of being exploited.

(Sell) He might not believe in the feel-good propaganda that the NCAA pushes as it relates to this discussion, but I don't see the decision after this season impacted greatly by a rush to get away from a system he thinks needs changes.

BUY or SELL: Texas wins the Big 12 and is in the playoffs this year?

(Sell) I can see Texas winning the Big 12, but I'm not sure it means a trip to the playoffs. Texas might still need another year of evolving before that happens.

BUY or SELL: LJH is not going to get drafted, but will sign with Dallas and will replace Cole Beasley?

(Sell) He's going to get drafted in the fifth round.

BUY or SELL: At the end of the epic battle of Winterfell, Jon, Danny, Brienne, Arya, Tormund, Bran, Podrick and Jamie are all dead.

(Sell) Jon lives, Danny dies in child-birth, Brienne lives, Arya dies, Tormund dies, Bran lives, Podrick lives and Jamie dies.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Spring is here!


... Ja Morant in the NCAA Tournament has a chance to be a lot of fun.

... It's good to be Antonio Brown, huh? It just goes to show that if you are elite of the elite, you can pretty much do whatever the hell you please and someone will still willingly give you $30 million. Don't hate the playa, hate the game.

... NFL Player Tweet of the Weekend


... A-Rod and J-Low are engaged. Good for them.

... Bryce Harper went to the Mick Foley School of Cutting a Promo...


... I'll take "Things That Would Never Happen in American Football", Alex...


... The final eight weeks worth of Premier League games are going to bananas. Just keep grinding, Reds.

... I didn't know Junior dos Santos still had that in him.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 UT buzz-names for the spring ...

Here's a look at the names on the Texas roster that I'm predicting will generate the most positive buzz for the next month during spring drills (not including starters from last season):

10. Josh Moore
9. Denzel Okafor
8. Casey Thompson
7. Bru McCoy
6. DeMarvion Overshown
5. Taquan Graham
4. Brennan Eagles
3. Cade Brewer
2. Jalen Green
1. Joseph Ossai

No. 10 – And Finally ...

The Longhorns lost one of their own this weekend with word that former school president Bill Powers passed away at the age of 72.

In a touching note to all Longhorns, current president Greg Fenves wrote, "Bill quoted Margaret Mead, 'Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.” In many ways, that sentence defines Bill Powers. He was one of those thoughtful, committed citizens. He changed UT. He changed Texas. He changed the world.'"

Powerful words.

Rest in peace, Bill.

You’re right; you know it really makes me angry to discuss the possibility that Shaka Smart is back next year... really angry. The guy just has to go.

I don’t have a win-at-all-costs mentality, but I do have the mentality that Smart’s buyout should not be an obstacle, even if I am spending someone else’s money.

We shouldn’t be the school that pays its way out of its mistakes? How about this: if we don’t hire dimwits to coach our teams, we won’t have to correct our mistakes with huge buyouts... how about that?

The guy is an absolute joke. If he had any integrity, he’d walk himself to the door.
 
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Having to continue to swallow dead money is seen as being out of control, especially with the amount of money Texas has already swallowed.

I literally wrote the first section of the column about it.

Well if they didn't hire incompetent jackasses like Steve Patterson and they wouldn't have to pay money to clean up the messes Patterson mades.
 
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Really not sure.

Doubt it. My guess is Shaka will know it's his last year to show major improvements. I agree with Ketch that he is back next year unless he were to leave on his own which I dont see. Texas isn't in a position to fire him this year. Next would be his last to show something. All that said I think he should be fired this year but Texas handcuffed themselves for another year.
 
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No. 9 - The List: Top 10 UT buzz-names for the spring ...

Here's a look at the names on the Texas roster that I'm predicting will generate the most positive buzz for the next month during spring drills (not including starters from last season):
10. Josh Moore
9. Denzel Okafor
8. Casey Thompson
7. Bru McCoy
6. DeMarvion Overshown
5. Taquan Graham
4. Brennan Eagles
3.1 Kirk Johnson
3. Cade Brewer
2. Jalen Green
1. Joseph Ossai

FIFY
 
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I had high hopes for Cade Brewer to be our next David Thomas after his freshman year. Hopefully he will bounce back this year and full fill that dream!
 
I personally believe Shaka is gone this year. He's had four years to establish himself, and it hasn't worked. His team has no mental or physical toughness, which is a basic requirement for any successful team.

He's in over his head, and another year won't make anything better.

Please pull the plug CDC...
 
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A lot of athletic depts are really bad negotiators. I see coaches that don't have all that much leverage have their agents completely out negotiate the athletic departments. I hope CDC is better.
 
I'll never forget October 3rd 2015 for as long as I live.

Fcking Charlie Strong.
Bro I always think of you and that game when that goofballs name is mentioned. It was hilariously awful. I've got a story for the rest of my life I tell people about that RRS and his goofy no coaching ass.

Also, I had 2 free tix behind our bench for the TCU game and didn't go. Imagine how bad it will be next season when Shaka shits the bed again...
 
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Would love to see Derrian Brown continue to get some buzz to non football reasons. I hope his recovery continues to go well! Would love to see him as an honorary captain first game.
 
You said: "This Texas offensive line has a chance to be really good this year, but it's only going to be as good as its weakest and second-weakest links."

Proctor is very good. Not Braun good, but good. How was he not offered?
 
I still feel like CDC has painted himself too much into a corner with his stated expectation that every program is a top 10 program. Herman got there in 2 years, Pierce in 2 years, Aston in 3 years, and even the softball team is ranked 10th last I checked with a new coach, whose name I don't even know.

In 4 years, Shaka turned the borderline top 25 program he inherited into a less than top 68 program. You can't lay down those expectations and then bring him back and expect people to take anything you say seriously. We find out in 10-14 days if CDC cares more about expectations or dollars. I hope you are wrong and expectations trump dollar bills.
 
At this point I don’t really give a crap about whether Smart stays or goes. His inept way of “coaching” is a huge turn off. It is extremely difficult for me to give up on anything Texas, but Smart pulled it off. I gave up about mid season last year and nothing he’s done since has changed my mind. It’s now just comical how bad this basketball program has become. Now I figure if CDC doesn’t give a s..t enough to change, why should I. Can’t wait for football to start. In the meantime let’s win some baseball games.
 
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“Sloppy” is not the word I would have used. UT must know more issues re VY for that type of statement about you’re most storied player in the last 4 decades. Doubt it was just two DUIs and never calling anyone back...
I agree, sloppy is out of context.
 
So, what does if save Texas financially if they wait one more year to fire Shaka (assuming he has another sub-par season in 2020? $3-4 million ?
No.

But, decision-makers do not want to solve every problem with monster dead money payments. I suppose the monster payment has to become less of a monster.
Business people might look at that differently. The 'dead money payments' are the payments that have to be made to Shaka REGARDLESS. That's what makes them 'dead'. And unless he takes another job, those payments are $12 million. Nothing you can do about it. They are sunk costs. The focus should not be on the dead costs.
The costs that are not dead are those that are required to hire a new coach. And yes, those costs are greater the earlier you hire the new guy. But the analysis is what is your return on those costs- or said differently- what is the opportunity cost of not doing it.
I have no doubt that they are attempting to model that as we speak. It's not an easy exercise, or an exact science, though.
 
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Great article Ketch but like many others I feel you are way off on the Shaka thing. You have to do it now. $3MM doesn’t matter.
 
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Vince Young has done great things for The University. He needs our help now. Alcohol addiction is a chronic disease. Vince needs to be in a reputable rehab center for at least 90 days and in a controlled sober living environment for at least a year. It takes that long for the brain to heal from the damage that alcohol does to the brain. It takes the brain more time to heal from Alcohol addiction than it does from heroin addiction. I only know these things because I have two family members who have struggled with this. Fortunately both are on the road to recovery. And people who have this problem deny that they have this problem so it is difficult to get the addicted person into treatment. So people who are close to Vince need to have great resolve in getting him to treatment.
 
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This year was the first in as long as I can remember (probably since I was in the Air Force and stationed in Alaska in the early ‘90s) that I didn’t make one single Texas basketball game. Next year will be two years in a row if Shaka is still the coach.
 
Not sure who you are talking to but they aren't real bright when it comes to the financial impact of buying out Shaka

Did you think to mention that waiting a year saves about 3 million. Drop in a bucket at Texas.

Looking at the entire number is pointless because he is owed that whether we fire him this year or next.

Beard or the next coach will have a buyout and a new contract.

The cost to fire Shaka is just his salary. Not sure why its so hard. I trust CDC can make this argument relatively easy.
I’m thinking the same way. Fairly simple math to me.
 
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Once you know a coach needs to be fired, it never makes sense to put it off.

Paying out big sums of dead money, is always embarrassing and draws the ire of detractors. With that said, the only thing worse is wasting 1 - 2 years more before moving on, even when you know that is inevitable.

We have a new arena in the making and a chance to reset. A new coach for the new arena needs a chance to put us on an upward trajectory.

CDC … please don't put it off. Use your political capital which we all know is very high right now to pull the levers and make the move … now!


This is exactly right. Say Shaka goes 18-14 (8-10 in conference again) next year, is that supposed to be good enough for yet another year?

I personally believe that CDC will soft-landing Shaka and hire Beard. He will do something....
 
No.

But, decision-makers do not want to solve every problem with monster dead money payments. I suppose the monster payment has to become less of a monster.
If this is their thoughts on Smart then is it safe to say that another losing season is not worth the 3-4 million saved by allowing him to be here another year?
 
It’s one thing to keep a coach who has been underachieving for multiple years who is at least still trying or has a semblance of a plan to get better. The problem is Shaka has thrown in the towel, thrown his players under the bus and basically just giving up. It’s almost like he wants Texas to fire him and he can collect his money and get out of Austin.

How do you bring back a toxic coach who simply doesn’t care anymore? He will just flat sink the program to the bottom and end up costing Texas more money by keeping him.
 
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All of those responsible for the Strong/Smart debacles are gone now. We have new leadership. We wiped the slate clean with Strong/Herman and need to do the same with Shaka and his replacement. It's the only choice. I think CDC understands this.

VY is the definition of entitled. Spoiled athlete who is used to getting his way. No accountability

I think Sam runs much less this season than he has. I think we will finally have a competent running game and his running will be more of the scrambling variety. At least that is what I'm hoping. I'm also hoping that we open it up more this year with all of our talented receivers.
 
Let’s get to fun stuff. Here is my own list of the most likely coaches to replace Shaka Smart:
1- Chris Beard
2- Kelvin Sampson
3- Bruce Pearl
4- Buzz Williams
5- Steve Wojo
6- Tom Crean
 
What impact, if any, do you think Shaka’s job situation is having on 2020 recruiting? Not getting Brown and/or Hampton would be a huge letdown imo.
 
So much hand wringing over the Texas men’s basketball coach is laughable. Folks, I would suggest that the main goal of the MBB program is NOT something lofty like winning a national championship but rather to a) compete periodically for Big XII honours and b) reach the Sweet 16 round every 4 years, or so. And, as an alumnus, I’m ok with that since I really don’t care about college basketball. Therefore, we should NEVER EVER be buying out head coaching contracts of the men’s BB team. \m/
 
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