For Texas football, the 2021 NFL Draft was a microcosm of the current program.
Not too shabby at all, just not great.
As Anwar Richardson outlined in The Sunday Pulpit, the Longhorns came out of the proceedings with a few moments to hang their hats on. Texas tied Oklahoma for most draftees in the Big 12. Also, in finishing with one more selection than Texas A&M, it gives Texas fans a fresh checkmate moment (inside of dozens that already exist) with obnoxious Aggies that might want to engage in some random smack talk.
Yet, there's something about the weekend that felt a little empty and maybe it's because bragging about second- and third-day draft picks is a lot like winning the Alamo Bowl... it's better than nothing, but no one really wants to wear a t-shirt reminding the world about it.
The entire scenario as it played out was a reminder of what Steve Sarkisian was hired to do.
Be elite in every way.
Good isn't good enough. Neither are pretty good, very good or damn good.
E-l-i-t-e. That's the goal. That's what it will take to overthrow Oklahoma in the Big 12 and position the program for a run in the playoffs.
The last three days were a reminder that it's been a long time since the Longhorns have been anywhere close to elite. As much as we like Sam Cosmi, Joseph Ossai and Sam Ehlinger, they weren't elite college players and the NFL treated them as such.
It's a sin that this program hasn't had a first-round draft pick since 2015 and it's likely that factoid goes into its eighth year in 2023 before it changes. Since 2011, the Longhorns have only had two first-round selections (Malcom Brown and Kenny Vaccaro). People can argue until they are blue in the face that NFL Draft success doesn't translate to success at the college level, but the Longhorns aren't going to be better than pretty good until these data points change.
The best coaching in the world is only going to carry this program so far before the Jimmys and the Joes matter most. As the NFL Draft has reminded everyone in burnt orange for far too many years, there are no shortcuts to getting there. Recruiting is the first step; development is the second.
Sarkisian's task is simple... help Texas take the hardest step.
When it happens, you won't need anyone to explain it to you. More times than not, the NFL Draft results will tell a large portion of the story.
Unless you believe it was a coincidence that the greatest era of Texas football in the modern history of the sport (2000-2009) was highlighted by 14 first-round draft picks, including 7 in the Top 10.
No. 2 - An elephant in the room for 2021...
In regards to Texas football's championship aspirations, it's hard not to acknowledge that the Longhorns lack elite, draft-eligible talent going into next year.
This is a little bit of a loose projection, but here's a very early set of NFL Draft predictions for players that are eligible for the next two NFL Drafts.
It goes without saying that player development is as key of an area as anything you can discuss within the program.
2022 NFL Draft
DT Keondre Coburn (3rd/4th round)
LB DeMarvion Overshown (3rd/4th round)
CB D'Shawn Jamison (3rd/4th round)
DB Josh Thompson (4th/5th round)
2023 NFL Draft
RB Bijan Robinson (1st/2nd round)
There's a ton of names on the roster that could emerge as players that get drafted, but as things stand now it's impossible to put your finger on where players like Casey Thompson, Roschon Johnson, Joshua Moore, Junior Angilau, Moro Ojomo, Alfred Collins or any number of young defensive backs will be drafted for a number of reasons.
It'll all hinge on the development of players.
No. 3 - Let's talk about Sam Cosmi...
One of the biggest success stories of the entire Herman Era is the former three-star prospect, who Herman poached from his old Houston commitment list when he first arrived in Austin.
Cosmi had two other scholarship offers outside of the Longhorns and Cougars... TCU and Memphis. That's it.
For Herman to feel so strongly about this particular evaluation warrants an attaboy, but that he emerged as a 34-game starter and one of the best players in the Big 12 is an absolute feather in the cap for the former Texas head coach. It's just too bad there weren't more success stories like Cosmi.
No. 4 - Really happy for Sam ...
Once you get to the sixth and seventh rounds of the Draft, you start to hear a lot of people say that it's better to go undrafted because you can choose your situation that you walk into instead of potentially entering an impossible roster situation.
As it relates to Sam Ehlinger, screw that. Ehlinger deserved to walk out of Texas as a drafted player. That's an honor that was warranted and it would have felt uncomfortable to see him go through that unofficial insult/embarrassment.
Honestly, I didn't realize how emotionally invested into his situation I was until he was actually drafted, and I felt relieved. I had no idea how much anxiety about it existed until it went away.
If I felt this way, I can't imagine how it must have felt in the Ehlinger household.
Thank goodness we got this. Watching his mom's emotions makes me tear up.
No. 5 - NFL Draft numbers...
I know you're expecting me to overwhelm you with draft data from the weekend, but I haven't had time to fully crunch the numbers yet, so I just wanted to pass along the following data for now to chew on.
First, here's a look at the percentage of each recruiting tier in the Rivals.com rankings next to the percentage of that tier's place in the first round of the NFL Draft.
5 stars:: 0.0083% (25.0%)
4 stars: 9.12% (34.37%)
3 stars: 32.62% (28.13%)
2 stars: 57.41% (12.5%)
Second, here's a look at the percentage of each recruiting tier in the Rivals.com rankings next to the percentage of that tier's place in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.
5 stars:: 0.0083% (15.24%)
4 stars: 9.12% (37.14%)
3 stars: 32.62% (30.48%)
2 stars: 57.41% (14.3%)
If you're looking at that and wondering what is significant, I look at it this way.
1. The 5-stars producing 25 percent of the first round when it comprises less than 1/100 of a full percentage point speaks to the value of those players.
2. The 5-stars and 4-stars combined represent 9.1-percent of the prospects that come into college football, but represent nearly 60 percent of all first-round picks and 51 percent of all drafted players in the top three rounds.
No. 6 - Scattershooting on the NFL Draft weekend...
... Oh, if only Brennen Eagles could have it to do all over again... From almost the moment he stepped on campus, he viewed his needed college experience inside of a three-year time capsule, which is one of the reasons he turned pro in the off-season. It was how he had planned it all along, info from the NFL advisory committee be damned. There's so much a year under Steve Sarkisian could have done for him, but he'll forever remain as a big what-if player for me moving forward. This team could really use him and he clearly could use another year at Texas. There's a lesson to be learned here about not being so married to your original plans when the time calls for you to be flexible.
... Good luck to Tarik Black. I'm not sure I really thought he'd get a camp invite, so him signing with the Colts has to represent a win for him.
... It really feels like Sam Cosmi and Joseph Ossai landed in good places with their spots in the second round, which means that they'll likely be disappointed that they didn't get drafted sooner, but if they bring it, they've got a chance to be legit cornerstones for Washington and Cincinnati, respectively.
... Speaking of good fits, the early word on Ta'Quan Graham and the Falcons is that he can be an impact reserve for them as both a three- and five-tech on run downs.
.... Caden Sterns is going to need to make one hell of an impression on special teams as a fifth round pick of the Broncos, as he might be competing with fellow fifth round pick Jamar Johnson for a spot on the roster.
... After giving a big vote of confidence to the Cowboys for the drafting of Micah Parsons in the first round on Friday, all I can do is shake my head and shrug my shoulders at pretty much the rest of the draft. To come out of the third round of the draft with three players in the top 100 that might have been available much, much later than that was pretty confusing. This is a franchise that drafts very well at the top, but when they try to get cute in the draft, memories of Kavika Pittman and Quincy Carter start filling up my head.
... Basically, every guy that Dallas drafted had some sort of red flag on the character side of things, including Marshall offensive lineman Josh Ball,
who has been accused of multiple episodes of domestic violence. Jerry doesn't give a damn. Ironically, I'm getting there with my passion for the team.
... It feels like the Texans are the least relevant team in the entire league right now. Other than the quarterback drafted in the second round, nothing else about the draft stands out from the weekend.
... I'm not sure I see anyone other than Trevor Lawrence making it as a big-time quarterback in this draft. It kind of reminds me of the year Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota came out because I just don't love any of them.
... I freaking love Rondale Moore in Arizona.
... Why exactly are the Falcons still pot committed to Matt Ryan. Just fold those cards.
.... Watch out Devin Duvernay because Tylan Wallace is going to pressure you for a role in that Baltimore offense.
... There's no way that Zach Wilson and Justin Fields make it as a success with the Jets and Bears, right? Those teams can't have very good NFL quarterbacks. It's basically a law.
No. 7 - A costly couple of days...
Man, I hate to go all negative about the Texas baseball program after such inspiring play over the course of the last month, but a bad couple of days over the weekend against Texas Tech at home has completely upended the program's pursuit of only its second Big 12 regular season title since 2012.
With TCU's road sweep at West Virginia combined with Texas dropping two of three to the Red Raiders, the Longhorns are suddenly two full games down to the Horned Frogs in the standings as the two teams get set to face each other for a three-game series in Ft. Worth this weekend.
The only other conference games for either team occur May 21-23 when the Longhorns host West Virginia and TCU travels to Kansas State.
Honestly, it's probably going to take a sweep to get it done because I'm just not sure Texas is going to make up more than a game that weekend. At worst, the Longhorns probably have to win five of its last six games to win a share of the title. That might not be enough. In the blink of an eye, the conference title hopes really took a hit.
The good news is that seasons in Austin are rarely judged by conference titles, as it's mostly about Omaha, which means this weekend won't serve as a death knell to what matters most.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That feels too presumptuous when you consider he's a fifth round pick and enters the league saying he needs to improve his tackling.
(Buy) Give me Xavier Worthy and Ja'Tavian Sanders as no doubt about it contributors in my mind. I could see David Abiara or Jordon Thomas getting some PT as well.
(Buy) I'll go with five.
(Buy) It's just hard for me to believe that Banks would settle for TCU after being such a big-time recruit about five minutes ago. I've got Gaoteote penciled in as a starter this season in my head.
(Buy) Yes, if not, both will be on practice squads.
(Sell) Iowa State has more proven/developed talent and it will be reflected in next year's NFL Draft.
(Sell) P-l-a-y-e-r D-e-v-e-l-o-p-m-e-n-t.
(Sell) I think there are a lot of questions that could be asked of the report that was released and why the school refused to hire an independent, outsourced committee to handle the research and the overall task. I'm not sure I would point the finger at a professor that had perhaps the most impossible task of anyone associated with the project if we're keeping it 100.
(Sell) The NFL just doesn't put enough value on the running back position to think that's definitely going to happen. I'd sell at Top 10 as well.
(Sell) That number feels a little too high for me.
(Buy) Yes.
(Sell) That feels like too much benefit of the doubt to give anyone on this roster at that position at this point. I think I could see Jordan Whittington being a potential second-team guy.
(Buy) I've been as critical of Del Conte as just about anyone, but I'll be the first to say that he's also very, very good at a key number of aspects of his job. What he's done as a fundraiser should never be underestimated.
No. 9 - Top 10 Willie
I'm not saying that these are the Top 10 Willie Nelson songs of all-time... far from it. If I was doing that kind of list, you'd have to have "Crazy" on the list because... it's "Crazy".
Instead, these are merely my personal Top 10 Willie songs.
10. Hello Walls
9. Me and Paul
8. Always on My Mind
7. Pancho and Lefty
6. Whiskey River
5. Angel Flying Too Close to The Ground
4. Good Hearted Woman
3. A Song For You
2. Seven Spanish Angels
1. Blue Eyes Crying In The rain
No. 10 - And Finally ...
It really is a wonder that women will have anything to do with us most of the time. 😂 😂 😂
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