Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (What I really think after 12 games...)

[txfight]

Now after two years of success and Group of 5 schools, guys like Frost and Herman are graduating straight to schools with MAJOR LEAGUE expectations. There has to be an adjustment period.

I think you're right that the expectations have changed. My question is why does there have to be an adjustment period?

I'm not saying Herman has to come in and win a conference championship in year 1, or that Scott Frost would have to win a Big Ten title in the first 3 years at Nebraska if (when) they hire him.

But I don't think it's unreasonable to see improvement. Either in recruiting, on the field success, better strategy, etc.

And while we're on that topic, I think we have seen improvement in Austin. The defense is SOOOO much better. I watched the Aggies against LSU and they reminded me of our defense last year. So many missed tackles, guys going for a big shot and arm tackles. Our D didn't miss tackles this year, period. Also, there is an overriding strategy to the season and it is one clear message. That is a smaller thing but it's an improvement over last year.

I think Herman got here and did such a good job of saying all the right things (especially against the backdrop of Strong who wasn't a good communicator) that fans bought in heart and soul that Herman could do no wrong. Even though he was coming off a season that showed he wasn't infallible (losses to Navy SMU, Memphis.)

I don't think anyone here believes Herman still can't be great at Texas. But we turned a very blind eye to his shortcomings in the name of optimism. It is fair to expect improvements right away. But by and large, we were expecting too much too soon.

 

[siger]

I will be going to Kool-aid AA for the next 9 months and promising myself and others that I won't make the same mistakes twice. Or that the 8th time was the last time, I swear it.

This all seems way too familiar and I'm pretty worried about it.

No more Kool-aid for me either. With perhaps the exception of Todd Orlando, history repeated itself. More often than not, even at the pro level, the young coaches just don't just don't seem to work out. Can't understand why we didn't go after someone with a long successful resume as a head coach in a power 5 conference.

 

[Topo Chico]

BUY or SELL: This will be the worst off-season in OB history?

(Sell) The 2004 off-season stands above all others. As an example, I went to a speaking engagement in Nashville that year about two months before the season started and an older Longhorn walked up to me and asked, "Is Greg Davis going to be the offensive coordinator this year?” When I told him that he would be the offensive coordinator, the older fan walked out, but not before saying in front of everyone, "Well, nothing else f****** matters." Also, I was in the parent's section for the 2003 Holiday Bowl and you would have thought a full-on mutiny was about to take place.

I was heading to BCT during that summer and that was before technology was as good as it is today. Why was the summer of 2004 so bad?

 

[trophies2]

I think you're right that the expectations have changed. My question is why does there have to be an adjustment period?

I'm not saying Herman has to come in and win a conference championship in year 1, or that Scott Frost would have to win a Big Ten title in the first 3 years at Nebraska if (when) they hire him.

But I don't think it's unreasonable to see improvement. Either in recruiting, on the field success, better strategy, etc.

And while we're on that topic, I think we have seen improvement in Austin. The defense is SOOOO much better. I watched the Aggies against LSU and they reminded me of our defense last year. So many missed tackles, guys going for a big shot and arm tackles. Our D didn't miss tackles this year, period. Also, there is an overriding strategy to the season and it is one clear message. That is a smaller thing but it's an improvement over last year.

I think Herman got here and did such a good job of saying all the right things (especially against the backdrop of Strong who wasn't a good communicator) that fans bought in heart and soul that Herman could do no wrong. Even though he was coming off a season that showed he wasn't infallible (losses to Navy SMU, Memphis.)

I don't think anyone here believes Herman still can't be great at Texas. But we turned a very blind eye to his shortcomings in the name of optimism. It is fair to expect improvements right away. But by and large, we were expecting too much too soon.

Good post.

 

[Hook 'em Danno]

Burton is reporting Beck will likely be out or demoted from play caller as well this morning

BUY or SELL: Herman will burn it down before he fires his buddy Beck?

(Buy) I think Herman would view firing his offensive coordinator as burning it all down. Herman has given every indication that he believes injuries and a lack of good players is at the root of what happened this season, more than anything else. From his perspective, Beck has been hindered by things outside of his control, which makes evaluating his performance next to impossible. On top of that, Herman believes this team needs continuity like it needs air to breathe.

Misaligned.

 

[Texasgolong]

Name one head coach that has ever fired his OC in the middle of his first season.

Uh, Charlie Strong. Twice I think.

 

[Tampa 2]

I agree with this. He is essentially learning on the job. Next year 3rd and two same situation he runs it. Hopefully with some creative twist. I just thought he was smart enough to not grow through learning process and be one step ahead of game. That’s what I was counting on with $8 million staff salaries. And if you are gonna learn on job then you don’t deserve that money. $3 million per is more than enough for a guy learning on job.

It’s not your money getting spent.

You have to be competitive with what everyone is paying.

 

[realtexas]

I agree with this. He is essentially learning on the job. Next year 3rd and two same situation he runs it. Hopefully with some creative twist. I just thought he was smart enough to not grow through learning process and be one step ahead of game. That’s what I was counting on with $8 million staff salaries. And if you are gonna learn on job then you don’t deserve that money. $3 million per is more than enough for a guy learning on job.

Agreed, that is what he was making at Houston. Here he will get a 250k raise next year, with up to 750k in potential bonuses annually, and he his looking at a 1 million dollar one-time payment if he is the coach on December 25, 2019, that is a lot of money and he needs to look at getting things in-order quickly.

 

[DrHorn98]

It remains to be seen.

Pride is one of those seven deadlies.

And it precedes a fall.

 

[78LonghornJoe]

​

Color me unimpressed.

After 12 regular-season games of watching Tom Herman's Texas program in action, I think we've been handed a large enough of a sample-size to draw some basic first impressions and mine aren't much different than the ones I had following Charlie Strong's first season in Austin.

Yes, the team played hard. Yes, there were unfortunate circumstances all over the place. Yes, you can knock yourself out cold playing the "what-if" game if that will help you sleep at night.

Yet, if we're keeping the conversation real, I can't say there was a single moment this year when I thought to myself, "I'm watching a special, elite-level coach and it's only a matter of time."

No one would have viewed Saban as a special, elite-level coach after his time at Michigan State. His record from 95-99:

1995 6 5 1 Independence Bowl-L
1996 6 6 0 Sun Bowl-L
1997 7 5 0 Aloha Bowl-L
1998 6 6 0 No Bowl
1999 9 2 0 No Bowl

I wonder what changed for him? Better assistant coaches? His approach to preparing teams? Where is Herman in his development? That is the big question to me? Is Herman, as a head coach, a finished product yet

 

[CutaneousHorn]

Well he’s also allowed to develop as a HC. We didn’t hire Saban who walks in established.

When you hire a young up and comer you have growing pains. But it could really pay dividends in the future.

UT shouldn't have to hire up and comers.

 

[Ketchum]

If you count the WAC and Mountain West records you have a point. Most don’t consider records in those conferences to mean much. Coaches are judged on Power 5 conference wins and big bowl wins. He’s clearly a great coach, but other coaches that no one thinks as truly great have similar records to him over the last 6 years.

Sumlin was hired at A&M in 2012, the same year that Patterson joined the Big 12. Sumlin’s record over that time is 52-26 which is basically the same as Patterson at 50-25, yet Sumlin is not considered a great coach. Gundy has a better record. Patterson is clearly better because he has great seasons mixed in with his bad ones, but once Patterson hit the big leagues he hasn’t been as good as you are making him out to be.

He won the Rose Bowl coming from one of those conferences.

He's doing it at TCU.

 

[Ketchum]

He seemed right and hottest name at time. Still love his recruiting and ceo skills. But those two talents will take a hit if he continues to show weakness in personell management - game management. The latter two cause losses which effect former two. Smu, navy, Memphis, tech and Maryland cannot happen. He was completely outcoached those games against sub par competition.

Herman has been a head coach for three seasons. His teams have finished unranked in two of them.

 

[Ketchum]

Thought they bought in?

I think that's a popular narrative.

 

[Ketchum]

Burton is reporting Beck will likely be out or demoted from play caller as well this morning

I don't believe that's exactly what he reported. We'll see. Clearly, Beck isn't elite. The bigger problem might be that Herman thought he was.

 

[Ketchum]

Uh, Charlie Strong. Twice I think.

nope

 

[Ketchum]

UT shouldn't have to hire up and comers.

amen.

 

[I'm_smarter_then_you]

amen.

You will be flip flopping in two years. Get your shots in now.

 

[austinrules]

Del Conte

There is no plan B at this point IMO. Not a real one.

Your best guess at the timetable? Reasoning behind the timing of the hire?

 

[teyon shoes]

That’s fair, but it’s not entirely on the coaches either is the point I’m making.

The players have received too much of a pass this year imo.

Gregg Popovich is always fond of saying, “Players play and coaches coach. It’s a game of mistakes. The team that makes the fewest amount of mistakes is the team that usually wins.”

That’s Tom’s mission: to get these players to stop making crucial mistakes in critical situations. They tense up in those moments. They at least showed that they care this season. They just don’t know how to close out the big boy games and the games they should win all the time.

Now, if we can only get Tom from making "crucial mistakes in critical situations."

 

[Perdy]

He won the Rose Bowl coming from one of those conferences.

He's doing it at TCU.

He is graded on the curve because it’s TCU. Let’s see him win big games before we rank him. That’s how coaches are really judged. So far he has spit the bit in the Big 12. He has a chance this weekend.

 

[Good.Shepherd]

Agreed on QBs. If I bet on which horse will get to that 135 to 140 QBR sooner--which is the place where a real QB competition begins, becuase if you have a group of QBs and only one of them is above that line, you don't have a competition--is Ehlinger.

But while both guys sit in the 120s, we don't have a QB.

 

[CutaneousHorn]

You will be flip flopping in two years. Get your shots in now.

I hope all of us doubters are flip flopping in two years. I WANT to be wrong. I want CTH to kill it at UT.

 

[PillPusherHorn]

Disappointment with the start and finish to the season. Wisconsin behind Alabama?? NOT!!!

 

[SkullSplitter]

His baby is the offense and if the offense was actually a baby, millions of Texas fans would've called CPS to report him in the last four months.

 

[Ketchum]

You will be flip flopping in two years. Get your shots in now.

there's literally nothing to flip flop from. I'm Switzerland.

 

[Ketchum]

Your best guess at the timetable? Reasoning behind the timing of the hire?

first quarter of 2018 - I was told they'll want to wait until after the bowl game and possibly signing day.

 

[Ketchum]

He is graded on the curve because it’s TCU. Let’s see him win big games before we rank him. That’s how coaches are really judged. So far he has spit the bit in the Big 12. He has a chance this weekend.

I think this is crazy talk that is completely losing sight of the totality of his career.

He's the Bill Snyder of this state.

 

[Ketchum]

Disappointment with the start and finish to the season. Wisconsin behind Alabama?? NOT!!!

I just don't think they'd beat Alabama and they've played no one.

 

[I'm_smarter_then_you]

first quarter of 2018 - I was told they'll want to wait until after the bowl game and possibly signing day.

Take a stand. Do you think tom can lead this program out of the muck?

 

[Arrogant Horn]

If listened to the "olds" about OT threads, this board would suck and I'd have less than half of the current subscribers we have.

Doubt that's an olds thing. It's just people who don't get what makes the board what it is.

 

[Perdy]

I think this is crazy talk that is completely losing sight of the totality of his career.

He's the Bill Snyder of this state.

You’re not wrong about Texas coaches, but after Mack and DKR there is a big drop off. If asked to support your ranking with just his Big 12 years i don’t think that he is better than Briles or Slocum. Î would give the edge to Patterson because he wins his bowl games, but his lower conf record shouldn’t count.

Patterson has had one really good year in the Big 12 and a couple of good years like this one. Even his overall record is always padded with very weak teams like Baylor’s always was. They have 2 gimme out of conference games a year that bigger programs like UT and OU don’t. Their non conference games this year were SMU, Jackson St, and Arkansas. In 2012 when that they were 12-1 they played Sanford, Minnesota, and SMU.

 

[EG-man]

Hmm. I wonder if this decision was just another example of not having a feel for the game. Many of us have noted that at times it appears Coach Beck isn't tuned in to what is going on right in front of his eyes so to speak. I'll admit it is a stretch, but perhaps Tom Herman also has the same problem at times.

We (all of us) question everything when we lose.

 

[Ketchum]

Take a stand. Do you think tom can lead this program out of the muck?

I have doubts, but don't dismiss the idea that he can. He has to be much better, though.

 

[Ketchum]

You’re not wrong about Texas coaches, but after Mack and DKR there is a big drop off. If asked to support your ranking with just his Big 12 years i don’t think that he is better than Briles or Slocum.

Patterson has had one really good year in the Big 12 and a couple of good years like this one. Even his overall record is padded with very weak teams like Baylor’s always was. They have 2 gimme out of conference games a year that bigger programs like UT and OU don’t. Their non conference games were SMU, Jackson St, and Arkansas. In 2012 when that they were 12-1 they played Sanford, Minnesota, and SMU.

Isn't the fact that his team is in the top 10 and playing for the conference title in 5 days, and yet you're calling that a "good year", an indication of the job he's done?

p.s. Briles enabled rape and isn't in the discussion.