Before I go too far, I just want to make a quick confession.
I'm not writing about the Coronavirus or the threat it brings to the upcoming college football season, but it's obviously on my mind.
Honestly, I'm just not sure what to add that hasn't already been said or written.
I'm on pins and needles just like almost everyone else is. Players are practicing. Modified schedules have been released or should have been (yes, I'm talking about you, Big 12). Everyone's fingers are crossed.
Yet, it doesn't feel like enough based on the vibe being expressed from national college football voices with obvious connections outside of the SEC and Big 12 conferences.
I just can't write another column about uncertainty. Been there, done that (too many times in 2020). So, you're just going to have to forgive me if I channel my inner Herman Boone and treat all conversation related to it like one of my running backs just put the ball on the turf.
I'm choosing to write about something else.
Perhaps it's denial, but denial might be all I've got.
No. 2 - Back to regularly scheduled programming ...
Two things happened over the weekend that I viewed as a bit of a single intertwined event.
* Second-year defensive lineman Myron Warren out of Louisiana put his name into the transfer portal.
* 2021 wide receiver prospect Jaden Alexis out of Florida committed to the Longhorns.
In one door went a former out-of-state prospect right as another was coming in.
It got me to thinking about all of the things that go through my brain whenever an out-of-state commitment is made. How risky is out-of-state recruiting compared to in-state recruiting? Are out-of-state players more likely to leave a school via transfer than their in-state counterparts? Just how well has Texas recruited out of state over the years versus the national average and the national elite?
I'll be honest when I tell you that I'm not sure that I'm tackling a subject matter that can be completely handled in a weekend. The shot clock is going to get the best of me when it comes to answering all of my questions, especially when comparing UT's performance against the rest of the nation.
What I did want to accomplish was a complete analysis of UT's success in the department since the evolution of the Rivals.com rankings going all the way back to 2002.
No. 3 - A quick rant ...
Before we go any further, I have to acknowledge that we've got a bit of a problem when it comes to our sample size.
The problem's name is Mack Brown.
From 2002-2020, the Texas football program has signed 71 out-of-state prospects, with 28 of them (nearly 40 percent) arriving since Tom Herman took over as football coach, which means that nearly half of our sample size from the last two decades is either still on campus or can't really count towards the math until the players that are still on campus depart.
It's hard to get very far in terms of establishing historical trends when the pool of data to comb through is so limited.
I swear, I'm not sure people truly understand to what levels Mack leaned on in-state talent. He didn't take a single out-of-state prospect in 2003. Or 2004. He took one out-of-state player in 2007, 2008 and 2009. During the absolute height of UT's football success from 2003-2010, the Longhorns signed a total of 10 out-of-state prospects.
Herman signed 14 in 2019 alone.
I'm not getting into a discussion of whether the most successful football coach in the modern era of Texas football was doing anything right or wrong, I'm simply acknowledging that his approach hindered my ability to reach too far with my data.
It's stunning to think about what he accomplished with such a narrow recruiting approach.
No. 4 - The quick, short-sighted major bullet points ...
* Since Ricky Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 1998, the only out-of-state prospect signed from a high school or junior college that earned consensus all-American honors is Michael Dickson.
* The only other player among the 43 players eligible for discussion from the 2002-2016 recruiting classes that was named to an all-American team is Jordan Hicks in 2014.
* Twelve of 43 (27.9-percent) were multi-year starters (needed six starts in a season to qualify as a season-long starter).
* Seven of 43 (16.3 percent) were named first- or second-team All-Big 12 by the coaches or media at least once in their careers (Dickson, Hicks, Poona Ford, Andrew Beck, Donald Hawkins, Lamarr Houston and Kasey Studdard).
* Six of 43 (14.0-percent) were drafted by NFL teams (Dickson, Hicks, Houston, Studdard, Collin Johnson and Geoff Swaim).
NOW BEFORE YOU FREAK OUT ...
Those numbers aren't as terrible as those percentages might look on the surface. For instance, your average four-star prospect develops into an NFL drafted prospect at a rate of about 1 in 4 or 1 in 5. The Longhorns are 1 in 7.1, which isn't great and shouldn't shock anyone watching Texas football in the last 10 years, but it's not "jump from a building" scary. It's just not good. None of the numbers are good.
No. 5 - Let's dig a little ...
Full transparency ... this is the data that kind of blew my mind.
5-stars
* From 2002-2016, the Longhorns signed three five-star out of state prospects - Bryan Pickryl (2002), Marquise Johnson (2002) and Jordan Hicks (2010).
One was an all-American (Hicks), one was a freshman starter that flamed out because of injuries (Pickryl) and the other never qualified academically coming out of high school (Johnson).
That's it.
High 4-stars
* From 2002-2016, the Longhorns didn't sign a single 6.0-rated four-star prospect from out of state. The Longhorns did sign Gary Johnson in 2017 and he'd count in these numbers in a year from now once the 2017 Class is cycled out of the sport, but for the sake of the numbers we're using, there's not a single out-of-state prospect that Texas signed among the 43 names in the sample size that was a high four-star prospect.
Odd.
Mid 4-stars
* There's only five to speak of in the mid four-star tier ... Deandre Christmas-Giles, Collin Johnson, John Burt, Lamarr Houston and Kasey Studdard. Considering three of the five were drafted and qualified as multi-year starters, you'd have to say Texas crushed it in this tier.
In fact, I'd suggest it's important to note for the record that in the 15-year cycle that we're evaluating, four of the eight highest recruits that the Longhorns signed were multi-year starters and NFL Draft picks, which means that those eight prospects developed at the rate of five-star prospects on the national level when it comes to developing into NFL draft picks.
LET ME REPEAT THIS FOR THOSE OF YOU IN THE BACK .... 50 PERCENT OF THE HIGHEST-RATED PROSPECTS OF THE LAST 15 COMPLETED RECRUITING CYCLES PERFORMED LIKE 5-STARS!!!!!
Seriously, that's a damn impressive stat. It also is an indicator of what's about to come ...
Low 4-stars
Not a single one of the 16 low four-star out-of-state recruits that the Longhorns signed from 2002-2016 developed into players that were eventually drafted by NFL teams.
None.
Only Donald Hawkins and Lyle Sendlein were multi-year starters.
When I try to stress the importance of landing high four-star prospects instead of low-four star prospects and I do my best to highlight the difference in NFL development trends, this might be the new number that I use to display my point.
High Three stars
There are seven UT out-of-state signings from this tier and three of them - Poona Ford, Andrew Beck and Desmond Harrison are all still playing pro football.
No. 6 - Tom Herman's Contributions ...
After all that, what have we learned?
Basically, Texas just hasn't signed enough true bad ass out-of-state prospects because it does do, UT has historically hit on a higher number of prospects (in a small sample size) than the normal national trends would suggest might exist.
What's interesting about this entire conversation is the numbers that Herman's tenure in Austin is about to add to the sample size we've been playing with.
Herman has signed more five-stars (Bijan Robinson and Bru McCoy). He's signed high four-stars (Jake Smith and Gary Johnson). He's got a bunch of 5.9-rated prospects like Chris Adimora, Junior Angilau, Kenyatta Watson and Braydon Liebrock that are in the pipeline.
If Texas continues to produce the rate of NFL drafted linemen or multi-year starters as we've seen in the last 15 recruiting cycles, roughly four of the following names will develop into the types of players the NFL goes after: Robinson, Smith, Adimora, Angilau, Watson, Liebrock and Marcus Washington.
That doesn't feel like an impossible ask, but it's not a sure thing, either.
Again, from my vantage point, the biggest issue in this conversation is that the Longhorns just don't have enough volume of elite prospects, even when it comes to out-of-state prospects. There seems to be a public fallback opinion after all these years that highly rated prospects failing has been at the center of the program's ills for the last decade, but the small sample size suggests more, more and more high-level prospect were and have been needed.
Tom has delivered when it comes to adding the volume. Now he just needs to develop at the same high rate.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think we've got to have something to bitch about and that just feels like a thing we're going to have people bitching about forever. Like D.J. Monroe usage.
(Buy) I might be in denial, but there's a part of me that believes what happened this weekend was a behind the scenes scare tactic by conferences like the Big 10 and Pac-12 to see how conferences like the SEC and Big 12 might react. The SEC seems to feel like its start date gives it wiggle room against having to cancel now. We'll see.
(Buy) He literally just got a raise, although that has occasionally been a kiss of death ... like giving someone permission to dream big.
(Sell) Last decade? Sure. Last 20 years? I'll give you 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009.
(Buy) He's got better personnel.
(Sell) I thought about it, though. I'm not completely against it.
(Sell) I've got Brennan Eagles leading the team in yardage this season.
(Buy) He's waited his entire life for his senior season. I can't see him never having one.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... Collin Morikawa did the damn thing on Sunday at the PGA. That shot on 16 off the tee was out of this world good, but the putt for eagle to give him a two shot lead with two to play was just as clutch.
... It's hard for me to point to anyone else in the field at the PGA and say they lost the thing. Morikawa just flat out won it. A star was born.
... What would sports have looked like if Instagram existed in the 70s?
... Luka Doncic is a serious basketball unicorn. We're talking about a guy with the potential to be a top-10 player in the history of the game. He's that freaking good. His game against the Bucks on Saturday night was the stuff of a legend in the making.
... Even in the bubble, the NBA does fake drama (see Dame vs. Pat Beverly/Paul George from the weekend).
... Draymond Green is pretty good on TV. There's definitely a huge future there.
... Not only did the Miami Marlins screw up Philadelphia's beginning of the season, but now they are in first place in the division after playing 10 games? KAAAAAAAAHHHHHHNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!
... Aaron Judge only hit two homers this week. Slacker.
... Chris Weidman won a fight in the UFC this weekend and I have to forget that I had completely forgotten he was still around.
... I don't feel so bad about Liverpool getting knocked out in the round of 16 after the likes of Juventus and Real Madrid joined us on the sidelines. It's just one of those years. I'll take Munich over Man City in the semi-finals and Munich over Atletico in the Final.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Movie Coaches ...
This one is real simple. This is my personal Top 10 movie coaching characters, doesn't matter if based on real or fictional characters.
This might have been the most difficult top 10 I've ever compiled. I don't expect a consensus.
Narrowly missed: Larry Hockett (Bull Durham), Coach Klein (The Waterboy), Wally Rigg (Necessary Roughness), Ed Gennero (Necessary Roughness), Bud Kilmer (Varsity Blues) and Harry Hogge (Days of Thunder).
10. Molly McGrath (Wildcats)
9. Jimmy Dugan (A League Of Their Own)
8. Apollo Creed (Rocky)
7. Lou Brown (Major League)
6. Bobby Finstock (Teen Wolf)
5. Herman Boone (Remember The Titans)
4. Morris Buttermaker (Bad News Bears)
3. Mickey Goldmill (Rocky)
2. Mr. Miyagi (Karate Kid)
1. Norman Dale (Hoosiers)
No.10 - And finally...
My last thought kind of circles back to the first thought...
All these years that I've covered Texas athletics, I've heard people around the university always mention that the company they'd love to keep in a perfect world are the Stanfords, Cal-Berkleys and Michigans of the world. Yet, as college football seems to be at a crossroads with the idea of playing the 2020 season in the fall, it seems to be that those I'm speaking with are aligning more with the Alabamas, LSUs and Floridas of the world because the sense I get is that Texas leadership wants to play football. It sure as hell wants to try.
Just a random thought I had.
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