Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (About Colin Simmons and so much more)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I’d say it was like minute 12-15 ish when you an anwar were talking about his reaction. - he was talking about people being antsy about this recruiting class and now here we are
You made a quick comment about us not landing top guys - he said overall (referring to multiple seasons)
The discussion didn’t go into any details or negatives about this class though - only that small quip about you being willing to talk about top guys or not where it didn’t go
So it was more this discussion of trust sark and don’t worry about not having early commits - without any discussion about how this class is not stacking up well - because actually taking all these players has lowered the chances or confirmed that it’s a top 10 not top 5 class (and the negative implications that we understand top 10 is closer to top 25 than it is to top 3)
I've said numerous times that I expect this class to be in the top 10, but not top5, because they won't land enough super blues.
I totally understand
I was just surprised it wasn’t brought up in the context of this discussion - when the point being made was ….. see people trust sark in recruiting there wasn’t anything to worry about y’all were being dumb
I remember that it was something that I was about to say and I can't remember why I didn't.
I totally respect your Harrison Ford list. I know I’m the oddball in not liking Blade Runner so I would have had Presumed Innocent there and Sabrina in place of Working Girl, as a movie for the wife/girlfriend, but it is a solid list. Glad to see American Graffiti!
Well, you can put the Colin Simmons weekend in the books.
Just a shade more than 48 hours ago, the general feeling in Simmons' recruitment was that it appeared to be a 50-50 battle with the Longhorns and LSU Tigers.
More than 48 hours later, the Longhorns seem to have taken the lead with less than six months to go until he signs a National Letter of Intent.
Time to throw the parade, right?!
Probably not.
Don't get me wrong, if you pointed a gun to my head and asked me where I think Simmons will land, of course, I would choose the Longhorns. With the feelings created this weekend, momentum is in Texas' favor. Yet, in talking to dialed-in Texas sources on Sunday, two things stood out the most to me.
a. Simmons didn't give any indication that he's remotely close to shutting down shop and announcing his decision.
b. No one would defiantly declare the battle to win Simmons as over.
There's more work to be done. A visit to LSU in November looms as ominous if his recruitment does in fact go that long. Even if he did commit to the Longhorns soon, you know that you can set your watch to the reality that he will still end up visiting Baton Rouge at some point, just like we all expect that Micah Hudson will still visit Texas at some point, whether he commits to Texas Tech or not.
July. August. September. October. November. Some of December.
This isn't me trying to pee in your cereal of excitement as much as it's me reminding you that a 12-round championship fight doesn't get called off just because one of the fighters is leading 77-75 after 8 rounds on all of the judge's scorecards. A knockout blow wasn't quite delivered this weekend, even if a lot of folks in burnt orange are excited about the direction of things after this visit. Moving forward, I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up taking additional visits to Austin and Baton Rouge before making a decision.
Bottom line - the fight for Simmons will go on.
Brace yourselves, Texas fans. This is a mega-recruiting battle and it's not for the weak or timid.
No. 2 - A projected look at the 2024 Texas recruiting class ...
Since OB recently reported Texas intends to take a full 25-man class of high school recruits in 2024, let's take a look at what it might look like.
Putting it in pen
Offense
* That's 10 guys on the offensive side of the ball that are already committed (four) or that I have made Texas FutureCasts for. The timing of the future commitments is fluid with each guy, but these are 10 guys I'm expecting to see in the Texas recruiting class at the moment.
Defense
* Three of the four are uncommitted, but are players I have Texas FutureCasts placed on.
Special teams
* This gets us to 15 guys you can write into this Texas class with ink. Now we move into the guys that I'm a little less certain on.
Putting it in pencil
Offense
* Brooks is a guy that we have been hearing was on the verge of committing, but his profile is very similar to Kibbler and I question how many short-ish interior-only offensive linemen the Longhorns will take in this class when you consider that they still covet several super blue-chip tackles.
Defense
* I'm penciling in January and Umeozulu into the class, but I'm less than certain that both are going to be in the class. It feels safer to use pencil with both of them at this point, but they could very easily end up in the class together.
* Gipson could very easily be in the ink section and I've got a FutureCast to Texas in for him, but I'm being a little conservative here.
* Lair and Davis were feeling like future Longhorns a week ago when they left campus, but just how many defensive backs will Texas take in this class? Black, Johnson-Rubell, Wilson and Gipson make four. You'd have to think they are saving a spot for Bridges. That's five. It feels like we're going to see a really crowded defensive backfield class.
* Simmons is the must-have guy of this class and I'm comfortable putting him in pencil at this point.
* The total sits at 24 if all of the players in ink and pencil are included.
The Dream Finish
Offense
* You'd think the Longhorns would like to land one of the big dog offensive linemen from the three I've listed below and we know that Sark is desperate to add a certified bad mamma jamma at wide receiver.
Defense
* The Longhorns need at least one more interior lineman to pair with January and they'll take another bad mamma jamma at strong-side defensive end and edge if they can.
* A super blue-chip level offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive lineman and linebacker puts us at 28 based on the names that we have listed in ink and pencil and it still doesn't really accomplish everything you'd like to accomplish in this class. For instance, you'd like more than one more defensive linemen and linebacker. The good news is that we're not dealing with a hard 25. If enough attrition occurs, the Longhorns could take more than 25 high school prospects in this class, but it will probably eliminate any flexibility that Texas might want to have in the transfer market. The more you look at it, the more it looks like there could be some tough talks with a couple of defensive backs, but maybe I'm wrong and they'll take them all.
No. 3 - Questions about a few positions ...
a. What do we think about Chris Jackson as a recruiter at this point? Landing both Debose Jr. and Livingstone is more than solid when you consider that both are fairly consensus four-stars. Yet, where are the super blue chips? It feels like before the recruiting year is over, he needs to find a way to land either Hudson or Ryan Wingo or someone of that caliber or this will be a disappointing wide receiver class. Of course, they could always go out and finally make the (Kentucky wide receiver) Barion Brown thing happen one year before he heads off to the NFL. I'm just thinking out loud.
b. I don't really know what to tell you guys about the linebacker position at the moment. There's some thought that Khmori House will end up at Washington and beyond that, there's not anyone else that they've already offered and/or brought in for a visit that looks locked in. Obviously, the Longhorns signed a fantastic linebacker class last year, but the 2024 group is to be determined. Stay tuned.
c. This comment by @Suchomel on the message board caught my attention on Sunday.
Obviously, you tell guys what you think they need to hear in recruiting, but a "complete overhual" didn't exactly give me the warm and fuzzies. Obviously, the position changes quite a bit the moment that Simmons was to show up on campus (which is an awesome thing), but it doesn't inspire confidence in what they are expecting from the young players at the position going into the season.
No. 4 - Survival of the fittest ...
I'm not sure if you've heard about this or not, but Texas running backs coach Tashard Choice is very good at his job.
In picking up two national prospects in a span of roughly 48 hours this week, the Longhorns are stacked with running backs in a way that should ensure that the position remains one of strength for the foreseeable future.
Here's what the line-up of backs looks like on paper going into the 2024 season:
* Jonathan Brooks (RS Junior)
* Jaydon Blue (Junior)
* Savion Red (Junior)
* CJ Baxter (Sophomore)
* Tre Wisner (Sophomore or redshirt freshman)
* Jerrick Gibson (True freshman)
* Christian Clark (True freshman)
For those wondering how they are all going to get on the field ... they won't.
Being a rich man in the world of college football means being stacked at every position on the field, where Darwin's survival of the fittest theory takes over. Not all seven of the players projected to be on the depth chart next year are going to make it, yet the ones that do should be stronger for being pushed to their limits in the name of winning playing time.
It's a hell of a problem to have and a much better problem to have than the alternative, which would see Choice with a lack of talented options with which to work.
All hail Tashard Choice and his stacked roster of running backs.
May the strongest survive, win All-America honors and get drafted high in the NFL.
No. 5 - The value of Quinn and Arch ...
Sometimes I don't think Texas fans truly know what they have on their hands with having two five-star quarterbacks on campus at the same time.
Consider the following numbers
From 2006-2020, 29 different 5-star quarterbacks have finished their eligibility. Of that group of 29...
75.9% have played in the NFL
69.0%-were drafted by NFL teams
37.9% were drafted in the first round
17.2% were taken with the No. 1 overall pick in NFL Drafts
This is what the numbers look like if we're just talking about quarterbacks that were ranked No. 1 overall in the Rivals100:
100%-percent were drafted
100%-percent played in the NFL
There are few guarantees in life, but five-star quarterbacks come pretty close.
No. 6 - Quarterbacks in the state of Texas
This is data that I update every year in the quest to keep it current. Here's a look at the hits rates at the quarterback position from 2002-18 of players that have completed their eligibility.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
Three quick notes...
* Five of the six players (83.3%) were drafted by NFL teams
* The only player that didn't get drafted (Shepard) actually played wide receiver in college and played seven seasons in the NFL. That means that 100 percent of all five-star quarterbacks from 2002-2020 played in the NFL.
* Quinn Ewers (2021), Cade Klubnick (2022) and Jackson Arnold (2023) are all active college players and represent the first five-stars from the state of Texas since 2009.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2008 - Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2009 - Tyrik Rollison (Auburn)
Three quick notes...
* Two of the 5 players (40.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: McGee (4th round) and Luck (1st round).
* Of the top 11 highest-rated quarterbacks by Rivals in the modern era of recruiting, 63.6% were drafted by NFL teams and 72.7% played in the NFL.
* Texas A&M's Conner Weigman (2022) is the first high four star quarterback since 2009. Current 2024 Florida commit D.J. Lagway is also currently ranked as a high four-star by Rivals.
Mid Four Stars
2010 - Connor Wood (Texas)
2011 - J.W. Walsh (Oklahoma State)
2013 - J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)
2013 - Cody Thomas (Oklahoma)
2013 - Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Jarrett Stidham (Baylor)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
2016 - Shane Buechele (Texas)
2017 - Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
2017 - Chris Robison (Oklahoma)
Two quick notes...
* 3 of the 11 players (27.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Stidham (4th round), Murray (1st round) and Ehlinger (6th)
* Hudson Card (2020), Preston Stone (2021), Garrett Nussmeier (2021), Jalen Milroe (2021) and Austin Novosad (2023) are all still on college campuses.
Overall numbers by tiers
83.3% of all five-star were drafted.
40.0% of all high four stars were drafted.
27.3% of all mid four stars were drafted
8.3% of all low four-stars were drafted
The numbers shouldn't completely surprise, although the numbers in the top two tiers over-perform when compared to the numbers from all other positions.
No. 7 - Is Texas Baseball really ready for the SEC?
I need to make a confession.
I've never liked LSU baseball. Not since the Ben McDonald days. Not through their steroid era (allegedly) of Gorilla Ball. Not now.
Yet, they make you respect them. Six (going on possibly seven) national titles since 1991 will do that. Winning the way they did on Saturday night against Florida in the championship series will do that.
It's been 18 years since the Texas Longhorns last won a national title in baseball (it seems impossible to believe) and with the Tigers on the verge of winning another title, it's impossible to notice the different level of competition that the Longhorns are about to encounter. In the 17 seasons (2020 was cancelled) since Texas last won a national title, exactly zero Big 12 teams won an NCAA title. Meanwhile, during the same time frame, six different programs from the SEC have combined to win nine of the last 17 NCAA titles.
Everyone talks about the jump in competition that the Longhorns will be taking in football, but watching two SEC programs battle for another NCAA title in Omaha is a reminder that the bar is going to be significantly raised in baseball as well.
Since winning it all in 2005, the Longhorns have been to Omaha six times. SEC programs like Florida (8), LSU (6), Vanderbilt (5) and Mississippi State (5) all have either surpassed, equaled or are one off from that mark.
It's been tough for Texas baseball to get back to the heights it knew under Augie Garrido and that challenge is only going to intensify when SEC play starts for the Longhorns.
Get ready, Longhorns, This next ride is going to include some bumps.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I've never listened to Green Day, which means that the commitment that would be required of me to do it truthfully and with respect is probably more than I can commit to at the moment.
(Buy) I think ... in pencil.
(Sell) I'm still thinking somewhere between 8-10. I'm not convinced there will be enough super blue chips to crack the top 5.
(Buy) But, it's close. One could make the case that the 2002 team, which had Roy Williams, BJ Johnson, Sloan Thomas, Robert Timmons, Bo Scaife and a young David Thomas might deserve being slotted above that group,
Roy vs. Xavier = slight advantage 2002
BJ Johnson vs. AD Mitchell = slight advantage 2023
Bo Scaife vs. Sanders = advantage 2023
Sloan Thomas vs. Whittington/Neyor - Advantage 2002
Timmons vs. Johntay = Slight advantage 2023
(Sell) I think Texas loses at least one game on the road that it isn't expected to, but I'm not sure that it's UH.
(Buy) Good luck, farewell.
(Sell) If I felt that way, I would have already done it.
(Sell) CJ Baxter would rank ahead of both.
(Sell) Sometimes a guy just wants to be an Aggie. I think Bussey might be one.
(Sell) He is what he is. It was a perfectly fine time for him to leave.
(Sell), I'd say it's 3-2 after five games, with game six played in Baton Rouge. I'd switch my Fuiturecast if I thought we were talking about a 3-1 lead after four games.
(Buy) I can't think of one.
(Sell) I think LSU knows this is going to be a long race. They won't panic
(Buy) And it's not even close.
(Sell) 8-10% at a minimum.
(Sell) I'm not going that far out on a limb at this point with a team I just don't trust.
(Buy) Man, what a show that was this weekend!
(Buy) He's on the fast-track to being a head coach.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Great response by Florida to come back and smash LSU in the teeth on Sunday after such a tough loss on Saturday night. Here's hoping they saved a few runs for Monday.
... I kind of like the Travis Kelce/Ja'Marr Chase smack off.
After saying "Pat who?" on a podcast, Kelce responded by saying, ""It is what it is, dog. Who doesn't love some good locker room banter, man?" Kelce said. "Shoutout to Ja'Marr Chase for holding it down for his QB, but don't you ever disrespect Pat Mahomes, now. If you wanna talk your s---, talk your s---, pimp. Just better back it up."
Let' the season begin!
... The team motto for the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns has to be "YOLO" unless the Golden State Warriors claim it first.
... This is a cool freaking photo. Wemby has HOF big men looking like small forwards.
... I want to eat breakfast tacos with Victor Wembanyama.
... Am I the only one that ONLY keeps up with their favorite MLB team and mostly can't be bothered by what else happens until we get to September?
... Austin FC is heating up with the weather and Anwar hasn't even been in the stands lately!
... I'm not sure I can watch a ton of the Gold Cup after taking in the USA/Jamaica game on Saturday, but I did watch almost six hours of MLS action, so I'm not sure what to think about my life choices
... The legends came out at Glastonbury this weekend and wouldn't you know it, Rick Astley ... wait .... Rick Astley stole the show?
... I have zero desire to see The Flash. Apparently, the majority of America agrees with me.
... Time for me to dig into "The Bear." It just didn't happen this week.
No. 10 - The List: Harrison Ford movies ...
With the Indiana Jones movie coming out this week, I thought I would take on doing a Harrison Ford list again after putting one out a few years ago.
Somehow I left out Star Wars on the first list, which has to be one of the dumbest things I have ever written in a column... and I know I have many.
Let's get to it.
Honorable mention: Presumed Innocent, The Mosquito Coast, Air Force One, Sabrina, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, What Lies Beneath and Apocalypse Now
10. American Graffiti
Just feels like it has to make the list. Not my favorite movie, but some of you will scream bloody murder if I don't include it.
9. Indiana Jones and The Last Crusade
Maybe the most underrated Ford movie of all-time, simply because it stands in Raiders' shadow.
8. Witness
Am underrated crime thriller from the mid 80s with Kelly McGillis doing the Amish thing. I watched this within the last year and it holds up very well.
7. Clear and Present Danger
Crazy that this movie didn't crack the top 5, but this scene could have pushed into that territory all by itself.
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6. Working Girl
The final five are all movies for men. Working Girl is for your wife.
5. Blade Runner
One of the greatest sci-fi classics of them all.
4. Star Wars
Han shot first.
3. The Fugitive
It's closer to No.1 than No.10. A classic, all-time film from the 90s.
2. The Empire Strikes Back
The coolest and best Star Wars movie
1. Raiders of The Lost Ark
I wonder how many of you will disagree with me on this one? As far as I'm concerned, it's as timeless and incredible as almost any film made in the last 40+ years.
It has been proven over and again that Recruiting services have biases against quarterbacks that look like little Chinese women.
With the way the game and recruiting are now (NIL, Transfer Portal), there’s zero reason to get excited about recruiting until end of November leading up to NSD1. And, you’re exactly right, about your rankings comment.
I just can’t give 18 year olds that are as fickle as ever alot of my attention. I didn’t open the Weekend Recruiting Visit thread once and did I really miss anything? @Ketchum 10TFTW told me everything I need to know.
By that logic I don't see why you ever watch the games. Ketch's column will tell you everything you need to know about them, too.
I mean come on. There’s a significant difference and you’re not being honest if you think otherwise.
Why do I need to follow every move and turn of each recruit midsummer when they change their minds so often? I keep myself abreast of who we are recruiting and I don’t really concern myself with decision made 7 months before NSD1.
As we get closer to NSD1, I begin to follow much more closely.
For those that crave recruiting coverage 365, more power to them and what the mods offer is great.
Lots of great thoughts
Baseball like football is going to be beast we need to step up in both
Ford as made a lot of great movies a number of them good as been number 1 but i would go with the Fugitive but no issues with Indiana Jones
Baseball like football is going to be beast we need to step up in both
Ford as made a lot of great movies a number of them good as been number 1 but i would go with the Fugitive but no issues with Indiana Jones
Glad to see Witness made your list. I would have moved it up — truly a great thriller. And what the hell is going on with the website today? The constant refreshing, which is usually just kinda annoying, is so frequent that now it’s totally annoying. 5 times at least on page one.
I really don't know what's happening to you?
Can you email me at gkketch@gmail.com with a description of what's happening?
I haven't had an issue all day.
So do we l d any of the elite OT? Also can you rank all the RB we have or are committed? Your rock thanks
a. Never bet against Flood, right?>
b. Clark, Baxter, Brooks, Gibson, Blue, Robinson, Red and Wisner
BTW, I watched Patriot Games.
I am convinced that I have never seen it before last night. It was nothing like what I thought and I didn't remember a single scene.
I don't know how I never watched it, but it was great.
I am convinced that I have never seen it before last night. It was nothing like what I thought and I didn't remember a single scene.
I don't know how I never watched it, but it was great.
For some reason it hits me. I NEVER cry in movies except for in 2 scenes and they're really random and I'm not sure why. But it's that one and this scene from Coach Carter where he says "you saved my life". Again, totally random but there ya go.
Michigan is the expected commitment spot. He announces in a few days. Alabama and Georgia are his other schools in his final 3.
I'm not sure those other two would take it.
