Thanks for the input. The good news is that nothing like that will probably happen again for a while.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (About Colin Simmons and so much more)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I have been thinking about it some too. I don't see how what they did was any different than what Jason did in starting the Weekend Visit thread here. The mods there weren't the ones posting "photos of kids on their visits," except for the arrival and airport photos that were the same kind that Jason posts here.
I think the point you make about the difference in audiences is spot on. Early in the weekend thread I lamented the fact there was so little discussion about the visits, compared to how much there is when something negative happens. I have been here about 20 years, and I remember the excitement on here during the old Mack Brown junior day bonanzas. That's what these June OV weekends have become, but it seems like most on here just aren't that interested in following recruiting in real time like back then.
I thought this weekend would have been the equivalent of a three day gameday thread, except with overwhelming positivity and excitement. As I said over the weekend, it was the recruiting equivalent of the Alabama game later this year. Maybe it's the transfer portal or NIL or some other reason, or just the malaise of so many disappointing seasons.
In the end I love this site and there is a reason I have been here for so long and why I have only ever posted here. I'm just a bit saddened that doesn't seem to be the ferver for recruiting that there once was... because it was a heck of a lot of fun to be a part of.
To be fair I’ve seen firsthand when people ask questions or are trying to get into it more, many hardcore recruiting guys respond to them like they’re dumb for even asking since they missed details that are days old or even weeks old. you’ve been guilty of it yourself(not to me in particular, I greatly appreciate your posts and links)
Not to mention Ketch has simplified recruiting to “unless their ranking is in the top 60-100 guys(depending on position like DE) then any guys after that aren’t worth getting as excited for since only 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 will really turn into a high level player worth drafting”
I personally don’t follow and dial into recruiting until about this time when our big visit weekend happens outside the top 60 guys myself because we usually start getting commits mid summer and then I can kind of see who we’re truly in on.
That’s just my preference especially with Texas baseball being most of my focus until football starts and the coverage here being unequivocally superior to any of the Texas sites
Not gonna lie if it wasn’t for the recruiting thread here and many of your posts I would be totally out if the loop so most of all thank you for that🤘🏽
Very minor quibble, but I am surprised you give 23 JT Sanders a clear edge over 02 Bo Scaife, although if memory serves, Scaife may have missed that entire season with his 2nd knee injury. Maybe I am remembering Scaife more for what could have been than what actually was.
Disqualified based on the crowd alone. The lads are the absolute worst to attend a festival/concert/rave with. I’ve been to shows and festivals all over the world, not a fun time with them around. The lineup was fantastic though, Primavera is also up there for my money. Domestically, it starts and ends with Coachella but that has morphed into its own pop culture moment, it’s barely a festival at this point despite the music.
I don't really begrudge them for driving traffic to that thread and the tactics they used.
By any means needed, I suppose.
You know what my biggest thought was towards replicating the same number of posts/views on a thread here would be? The number of people bitching about how hard it is to find info in between mod posts.
You can tell I've been doing this... perhaps... too long.
Bo never had more than 395 yards receiving and two touchdowns in any season at Texas.
That being said, you should have seen what kind of football player he was in high school. I can still see it in my head the play where he hurt his knee. He just crumpled to the ground and was never the same. Yet, he's STILL earning that NFL pension. That tells you a LOT.
I sometimes wonder if I've done the right thing in pulling the curtain back on the realities of recruiting.,
But, once I became informed myself, it feels like I'd be a used car salesmen if I ignored it all, all in the name of tricking you into believing that every kid makes it.
I used to obsess over it and follow every single 4 star and so on. ultimately the data is the data and i love the analytics side of sports so it truly changed how I follow it now. Top 100 guys I generally get excited about as guys that can move up to that super blue area. It’s why I was so butthurt about Kelvin banks dropping and the justification used by the national guys(who have since owned the ranking failure, respect to Gorney). Thankfully we know how that’s looking so it’s irrelevant but at the time it irked me because of what the data said that knock does to his chances.
I think as a collective when looking at the 10-15 below the threshold as intriguing because you know 3 or 4 likely hit. Then the exercise is a little more fun trying to nail down which ones will be the few that do
I indeed did see if live in high school (have family in Colorado) and remember him returning punts. Like I said, I may be suffering from "good old days" syndrome and remembering him more prior to his knee problems.
Maybe I'm in the minority here, but The Last Crusade is the best Indiana Jones film for me, and by a sizable margin.
The updated visuals, Sean friggin Connery, the smoking hot Elsa Schneider, the clues leading up to the ending, and the scenes "at" Petra in Jordan... It's just a better movie than the others.
The updated visuals, Sean friggin Connery, the smoking hot Elsa Schneider, the clues leading up to the ending, and the scenes "at" Petra in Jordan... It's just a better movie than the others.
Have you seen "Regarding Henry"? While its top 10 for me, it should at least be Honerable Mention---please
Well, you can put the Colin Simmons weekend in the books.
Just a shade more than 48 hours ago, the general feeling in Simmons' recruitment was that it appeared to be a 50-50 battle with the Longhorns and LSU Tigers.
More than 48 hours later, the Longhorns seem to have taken the lead with less than six months to go until he signs a National Letter of Intent.
Time to throw the parade, right?!
Probably not.
Don't get me wrong, if you pointed a gun to my head and asked me where I think Simmons will land, of course, I would choose the Longhorns. With the feelings created this weekend, momentum is in Texas' favor. Yet, in talking to dialed-in Texas sources on Sunday, two things stood out the most to me.
a. Simmons didn't give any indication that he's remotely close to shutting down shop and announcing his decision.
b. No one would defiantly declare the battle to win Simmons as over.
There's more work to be done. A visit to LSU in November looms as ominous if his recruitment does in fact go that long. Even if he did commit to the Longhorns soon, you know that you can set your watch to the reality that he will still end up visiting Baton Rouge at some point, just like we all expect that Micah Hudson will still visit Texas at some point, whether he commits to Texas Tech or not.
July. August. September. October. November. Some of December.
This isn't me trying to pee in your cereal of excitement as much as it's me reminding you that a 12-round championship fight doesn't get called off just because one of the fighters is leading 77-75 after 8 rounds on all of the judge's scorecards. A knockout blow wasn't quite delivered this weekend, even if a lot of folks in burnt orange are excited about the direction of things after this visit. Moving forward, I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up taking additional visits to Austin and Baton Rouge before making a decision.
Bottom line - the fight for Simmons will go on.
Brace yourselves, Texas fans. This is a mega-recruiting battle and it's not for the weak or timid.
No. 2 - A projected look at the 2024 Texas recruiting class ...
Since OB recently reported Texas intends to take a full 25-man class of high school recruits in 2024, let's take a look at what it might look like.
Putting it in pen
Offense
* That's 10 guys on the offensive side of the ball that are already committed (four) or that I have made Texas FutureCasts for. The timing of the future commitments is fluid with each guy, but these are 10 guys I'm expecting to see in the Texas recruiting class at the moment.
Defense
* Three of the four are uncommitted, but are players I have Texas FutureCasts placed on.
Special teams
* This gets us to 15 guys you can write into this Texas class with ink. Now we move into the guys that I'm a little less certain on.
Putting it in pencil
Offense
* Brooks is a guy that we have been hearing was on the verge of committing, but his profile is very similar to Kibbler and I question how many short-ish interior-only offensive linemen the Longhorns will take in this class when you consider that they still covet several super blue-chip tackles.
Defense
* I'm penciling in January and Umeozulu into the class, but I'm less than certain that both are going to be in the class. It feels safer to use pencil with both of them at this point, but they could very easily end up in the class together.
* Gipson could very easily be in the ink section and I've got a FutureCast to Texas in for him, but I'm being a little conservative here.
* Lair and Davis were feeling like future Longhorns a week ago when they left campus, but just how many defensive backs will Texas take in this class? Black, Johnson-Rubell, Wilson and Gipson make four. You'd have to think they are saving a spot for Bridges. That's five. It feels like we're going to see a really crowded defensive backfield class.
* Simmons is the must-have guy of this class and I'm comfortable putting him in pencil at this point.
* The total sits at 24 if all of the players in ink and pencil are included.
The Dream Finish
Offense
* You'd think the Longhorns would like to land one of the big dog offensive linemen from the three I've listed below and we know that Sark is desperate to add a certified bad mamma jamma at wide receiver.
Defense
* The Longhorns need at least one more interior lineman to pair with January and they'll take another bad mamma jamma at strong-side defensive end and edge if they can.
* A super blue-chip level offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive lineman and linebacker puts us at 28 based on the names that we have listed in ink and pencil and it still doesn't really accomplish everything you'd like to accomplish in this class. For instance, you'd like more than one more defensive linemen and linebacker. The good news is that we're not dealing with a hard 25. If enough attrition occurs, the Longhorns could take more than 25 high school prospects in this class, but it will probably eliminate any flexibility that Texas might want to have in the transfer market. The more you look at it, the more it looks like there could be some tough talks with a couple of defensive backs, but maybe I'm wrong and they'll take them all.
No. 3 - Questions about a few positions ...
a. What do we think about Chris Jackson as a recruiter at this point? Landing both Debose Jr. and Livingstone is more than solid when you consider that both are fairly consensus four-stars. Yet, where are the super blue chips? It feels like before the recruiting year is over, he needs to find a way to land either Hudson or Ryan Wingo or someone of that caliber or this will be a disappointing wide receiver class. Of course, they could always go out and finally make the (Kentucky wide receiver) Barion Brown thing happen one year before he heads off to the NFL. I'm just thinking out loud.
b. I don't really know what to tell you guys about the linebacker position at the moment. There's some thought that Khmori House will end up at Washington and beyond that, there's not anyone else that they've already offered and/or brought in for a visit that looks locked in. Obviously, the Longhorns signed a fantastic linebacker class last year, but the 2024 group is to be determined. Stay tuned.
c. This comment by @Suchomel on the message board caught my attention on Sunday.
Obviously, you tell guys what you think they need to hear in recruiting, but a "complete overhual" didn't exactly give me the warm and fuzzies. Obviously, the position changes quite a bit the moment that Simmons was to show up on campus (which is an awesome thing), but it doesn't inspire confidence in what they are expecting from the young players at the position going into the season.
No. 4 - Survival of the fittest ...
I'm not sure if you've heard about this or not, but Texas running backs coach Tashard Choice is very good at his job.
In picking up two national prospects in a span of roughly 48 hours this week, the Longhorns are stacked with running backs in a way that should ensure that the position remains one of strength for the foreseeable future.
Here's what the line-up of backs looks like on paper going into the 2024 season:
* Jonathan Brooks (RS Junior)
* Jaydon Blue (Junior)
* Savion Red (Junior)
* CJ Baxter (Sophomore)
* Tre Wisner (Sophomore or redshirt freshman)
* Jerrick Gibson (True freshman)
* Christian Clark (True freshman)
For those wondering how they are all going to get on the field ... they won't.
Being a rich man in the world of college football means being stacked at every position on the field, where Darwin's survival of the fittest theory takes over. Not all seven of the players projected to be on the depth chart next year are going to make it, yet the ones that do should be stronger for being pushed to their limits in the name of winning playing time.
It's a hell of a problem to have and a much better problem to have than the alternative, which would see Choice with a lack of talented options with which to work.
All hail Tashard Choice and his stacked roster of running backs.
May the strongest survive, win All-America honors and get drafted high in the NFL.
No. 5 - The value of Quinn and Arch ...
Sometimes I don't think Texas fans truly know what they have on their hands with having two five-star quarterbacks on campus at the same time.
Consider the following numbers
From 2006-2020, 29 different 5-star quarterbacks have finished their eligibility. Of that group of 29...
75.9% have played in the NFL
69.0%-were drafted by NFL teams
37.9% were drafted in the first round
17.2% were taken with the No. 1 overall pick in NFL Drafts
This is what the numbers look like if we're just talking about quarterbacks that were ranked No. 1 overall in the Rivals100:
100%-percent were drafted
100%-percent played in the NFL
There are few guarantees in life, but five-star quarterbacks come pretty close.
No. 6 - Quarterbacks in the state of Texas
This is data that I update every year in the quest to keep it current. Here's a look at the hits rates at the quarterback position from 2002-18 of players that have completed their eligibility.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
Three quick notes...
* Five of the six players (83.3%) were drafted by NFL teams
* The only player that didn't get drafted (Shepard) actually played wide receiver in college and played seven seasons in the NFL. That means that 100 percent of all five-star quarterbacks from 2002-2020 played in the NFL.
* Quinn Ewers (2021), Cade Klubnick (2022) and Jackson Arnold (2023) are all active college players and represent the first five-stars from the state of Texas since 2009.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2008 - Andrew Luck (Stanford)
2009 - Tyrik Rollison (Auburn)
Three quick notes...
* Two of the 5 players (40.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: McGee (4th round) and Luck (1st round).
* Of the top 11 highest-rated quarterbacks by Rivals in the modern era of recruiting, 63.6% were drafted by NFL teams and 72.7% played in the NFL.
* Texas A&M's Conner Weigman (2022) is the first high four star quarterback since 2009. Current 2024 Florida commit D.J. Lagway is also currently ranked as a high four-star by Rivals.
Mid Four Stars
2010 - Connor Wood (Texas)
2011 - J.W. Walsh (Oklahoma State)
2013 - J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)
2013 - Cody Thomas (Oklahoma)
2013 - Kenny Hill (Texas A&M)
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Jarrett Stidham (Baylor)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
2016 - Shane Buechele (Texas)
2017 - Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
2017 - Chris Robison (Oklahoma)
Two quick notes...
* 3 of the 11 players (27.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Stidham (4th round), Murray (1st round) and Ehlinger (6th)
* Hudson Card (2020), Preston Stone (2021), Garrett Nussmeier (2021), Jalen Milroe (2021) and Austin Novosad (2023) are all still on college campuses.
Overall numbers by tiers
83.3% of all five-star were drafted.
40.0% of all high four stars were drafted.
27.3% of all mid four stars were drafted
8.3% of all low four-stars were drafted
The numbers shouldn't completely surprise, although the numbers in the top two tiers over-perform when compared to the numbers from all other positions.
No. 7 - Is Texas Baseball really ready for the SEC?
I need to make a confession.
I've never liked LSU baseball. Not since the Ben McDonald days. Not through their steroid era (allegedly) of Gorilla Ball. Not now.
Yet, they make you respect them. Six (going on possibly seven) national titles since 1991 will do that. Winning the way they did on Saturday night against Florida in the championship series will do that.
It's been 18 years since the Texas Longhorns last won a national title in baseball (it seems impossible to believe) and with the Tigers on the verge of winning another title, it's impossible to notice the different level of competition that the Longhorns are about to encounter. In the 17 seasons (2020 was cancelled) since Texas last won a national title, exactly zero Big 12 teams won an NCAA title. Meanwhile, during the same time frame, six different programs from the SEC have combined to win nine of the last 17 NCAA titles.
Everyone talks about the jump in competition that the Longhorns will be taking in football, but watching two SEC programs battle for another NCAA title in Omaha is a reminder that the bar is going to be significantly raised in baseball as well.
Since winning it all in 2005, the Longhorns have been to Omaha six times. SEC programs like Florida (8), LSU (6), Vanderbilt (5) and Mississippi State (5) all have either surpassed, equaled or are one off from that mark.
It's been tough for Texas baseball to get back to the heights it knew under Augie Garrido and that challenge is only going to intensify when SEC play starts for the Longhorns.
Get ready, Longhorns, This next ride is going to include some bumps.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I've never listened to Green Day, which means that the commitment that would be required of me to do it truthfully and with respect is probably more than I can commit to at the moment.
(Buy) I think ... in pencil.
(Sell) I'm still thinking somewhere between 8-10. I'm not convinced there will be enough super blue chips to crack the top 5.
(Buy) But, it's close. One could make the case that the 2002 team, which had Roy Williams, BJ Johnson, Sloan Thomas, Robert Timmons, Bo Scaife and a young David Thomas might deserve being slotted above that group,
Roy vs. Xavier = slight advantage 2002
BJ Johnson vs. AD Mitchell = slight advantage 2023
Bo Scaife vs. Sanders = advantage 2023
Sloan Thomas vs. Whittington/Neyor - Advantage 2002
Timmons vs. Johntay = Slight advantage 2023
(Sell) I think Texas loses at least one game on the road that it isn't expected to, but I'm not sure that it's UH.
(Buy) Good luck, farewell.
(Sell) If I felt that way, I would have already done it.
(Sell) CJ Baxter would rank ahead of both.
(Sell) Sometimes a guy just wants to be an Aggie. I think Bussey might be one.
(Sell) He is what he is. It was a perfectly fine time for him to leave.
(Sell), I'd say it's 3-2 after five games, with game six played in Baton Rouge. I'd switch my Fuiturecast if I thought we were talking about a 3-1 lead after four games.
(Buy) I can't think of one.
(Sell) I think LSU knows this is going to be a long race. They won't panic
(Buy) And it's not even close.
(Sell) 8-10% at a minimum.
(Sell) I'm not going that far out on a limb at this point with a team I just don't trust.
(Buy) Man, what a show that was this weekend!
(Buy) He's on the fast-track to being a head coach.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... Great response by Florida to come back and smash LSU in the teeth on Sunday after such a tough loss on Saturday night. Here's hoping they saved a few runs for Monday.
... I kind of like the Travis Kelce/Ja'Marr Chase smack off.
After saying "Pat who?" on a podcast, Kelce responded by saying, ""It is what it is, dog. Who doesn't love some good locker room banter, man?" Kelce said. "Shoutout to Ja'Marr Chase for holding it down for his QB, but don't you ever disrespect Pat Mahomes, now. If you wanna talk your s---, talk your s---, pimp. Just better back it up."
Let' the season begin!
... The team motto for the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns has to be "YOLO" unless the Golden State Warriors claim it first.
... This is a cool freaking photo. Wemby has HOF big men looking like small forwards.
... I want to eat breakfast tacos with Victor Wembanyama.
... Am I the only one that ONLY keeps up with their favorite MLB team and mostly can't be bothered by what else happens until we get to September?
... Austin FC is heating up with the weather and Anwar hasn't even been in the stands lately!
... I'm not sure I can watch a ton of the Gold Cup after taking in the USA/Jamaica game on Saturday, but I did watch almost six hours of MLS action, so I'm not sure what to think about my life choices
... The legends came out at Glastonbury this weekend and wouldn't you know it, Rick Astley ... wait .... Rick Astley stole the show?
... I have zero desire to see The Flash. Apparently, the majority of America agrees with me.
... Time for me to dig into "The Bear." It just didn't happen this week.
No. 10 - The List: Harrison Ford movies ...
With the Indiana Jones movie coming out this week, I thought I would take on doing a Harrison Ford list again after putting one out a few years ago.
Somehow I left out Star Wars on the first list, which has to be one of the dumbest things I have ever written in a column... and I know I have many.
Let's get to it.
Honorable mention: Presumed Innocent, The Mosquito Coast, Air Force One, Sabrina, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, What Lies Beneath and Apocalypse Now
10. American Graffiti
Just feels like it has to make the list. Not my favorite movie, but some of you will scream bloody murder if I don't include it.
9. Indiana Jones and The Last Crusade
Maybe the most underrated Ford movie of all-time, simply because it stands in Raiders' shadow.
8. Witness
Am underrated crime thriller from the mid 80s with Kelly McGillis doing the Amish thing. I watched this within the last year and it holds up very well.
7. Clear and Present Danger
Crazy that this movie didn't crack the top 5, but this scene could have pushed into that territory all by itself.
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6. Working Girl
The final five are all movies for men. Working Girl is for your wife.
5. Blade Runner
One of the greatest sci-fi classics of them all.
4. Star Wars
Han shot first.
3. The Fugitive
It's closer to No.1 than No.10. A classic, all-time film from the 90s.
2. The Empire Strikes Back
The coolest and best Star Wars movie
1. Raiders of The Lost Ark
I wonder how many of you will disagree with me on this one? As far as I'm concerned, it's as timeless and incredible as almost any film made in the last 40+ years.
I understand - I was just listening to your discussion with Anwar and I was like?? say what? this weekend was supposed to make me think this recruiting class is some kind of success? or that it generated some kind of momentum that would make it so?
Maybe you can say that there are a bunch of circumstances that won't lead it to being a success but that the staff over time will do fine... I can hear that point potentially. I can hear the point that they need to win big this year to get momentum back. But getting a limited number of difference makers and a bunch of fluff isn't success / and nothing this weekend changed the outlook of this class at all
(hopefully I'm proven wrong - I'm rooting for it)
