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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Arch Manning is...)

Great read. Totally agree with the Jimmy Stewart list. But just don’t agree with taking points off the board at that point in the game (one score lead), 4th and 3. Just think it was impulsive., particularly as we had fewer offensive opportunities at that point.. And I also think that there has to be concerns with the run defense against a team that is unranked, injured and pkaying so many freshmen. Yes, Texas prevented scores on most drives-this wasn’t a good team. Can’t play like that against Georgia, A&M, OU and perhaps Alabama down the road. Maybe we’re just hiding the ball, so to speak, and are not showing more complex defensive schemes until we get to those games. I can only hope so.
 
@Ketchum speaking for myself here: I don't care about your shot-calls in regards to incoming recruits. I don't think many do. However, a lot of hyperbole (good or bad) adds weight to your predictions with almost no upside. Nail a VY type prediction for a guy who is a junior in highschool...Does that really help you? Seems like a miss has way more downside than a correct pick has upside.

Don't beat yourself up over Hudson Card. But also know that at least for this reader, present day evaluation is interesting (even if subjective) but future casting is not as interesting.
 
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Mark my words, when the dust settles he's going to be a first-round pick if he stays healthy. You'll remember who called it before anyone else.
I recall the debate before he reclassified was "Ewers or Klubnik". Who ya got Ketch? I like the guy we got.
 
I got that print. Those guys are my guys and just never found anyone I liked as much. Down to Willie and King George. Losing Buffett and Kris are gut punches. Circle of life. It’s damn short.
Losing Buffett was a punch to the scrotum pole. I'm sure he and Mike Leach are sharing some pirate stories over a margarita. Sail on sailor.
 
I’ll be shocked if we don’t hit the portal hard for offensive linemen and RBs.
Blue has poor contact balance. I’m curious if that’s something that can be fixed.
Gibson is awful at pass protection ( only a true freshman so I expect him to improve) and drops his eyes on contact when running the ball.
Baxter, who was the coach’s favorite (they likened him to Edgerrin James), may never be the same.
They better go to the portal.

It'll be a real test along the OL front. It's not what Flood wants.
 
Great read. Totally agree with the Jimmy Stewart list. But just don’t agree with taking points off the board at that point in the game (one score lead), 4th and 3. Just think it was impulsive., particularly as we had fewer offensive opportunities at that point.. And I also think that there has to be concerns with the run defense against a team that is unranked, injured and pkaying so many freshmen. Yes, Texas prevented scores on most drives-this wasn’t a good team. Can’t play like that against Georgia, A&M, OU and perhaps Alabama down the road. Maybe we’re just hiding the ball, so to speak, and are not showing more complex defensive schemes until we get to those games. I can only hope so.
Sark trying to put aggression and a killer instinct in this team's DNA. He feels like that is part of it, even if it proves to be a mistake, it's an aggressive mistake.
 
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@Ketchum speaking for myself here: I don't care about your shot-calls in regards to incoming recruits. I don't think many do. However, a lot of hyperbole (good or bad) adds weight to your predictions with almost no upside. Nail a VY type prediction for a guy who is a junior in highschool...Does that really help you? Seems like a miss has way more downside than a correct pick has upside.

Don't beat yourself up over Hudson Card. But also know that at least for this reader, present day evaluation is interesting (even if subjective) but future casting is not as interesting.
It's a game of hits and misses. One doesn't come without the other.
 
Is it just me, or does PK purely expect his talent to win the line of scrimmage rather than send numbers? Vast majority of his defense only sends 4, occasionally 5. I watched Alabama send 8 guys to force the intentional grounding safety against Georgia……I dream of PK dialing that up.

B/S PK could afford to send more pressure more frequently (and never only rush 3 ever again please)
If they don’t make in-game adjustments like this against good/great teams, then I’ll be pissed.
We purposefully played a light box, and took away underneath throws, against this team because it forced them to beat us with explosives passes we knew they had no shot to execute. I think we could have added some more bodies on third and short plays.
 
Is it just me, or does PK purely expect his talent to win the line of scrimmage rather than send numbers? Vast majority of his defense only sends 4, occasionally 5. I watched Alabama send 8 guys to force the intentional grounding safety against Georgia……I dream of PK dialing that up.

B/S PK could afford to send more pressure more frequently (and never only rush 3 ever again please)
So now we are bitching about PK again after one game. SMH
 
I’m not Ketch, but this is an interesting question.

It really gets at: who will be better in 3 or 4 years.

I think if Arch were in the draft, he would be the 1st QB off the board and it wouldn’t be close.

Who are the top defensive guys in the draft and how do they compare to the likes of Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt and similiar?

It would take someone like that to make me pass up Arch, and I’m not even sure I could pull the trigger then.

The good news for teams is Arch isn’t in the draft this year. But his Left Tackle is.
Let’s say Arch has a big year next year and the team does too. Does he stay or go?
I really really want him to be the full time starter for 2 years. He would absolutely be ready for the league then.
 
I recall the debate before he reclassified was "Ewers or Klubnik". Who ya got Ketch? I like the guy we got.
Klubnik has work to do before he gets to Ewers, but the distance isn't so far apart that it can't be done.
 

... Texas is the best first-quarter team in the country, outscoring its five opponents by a score of 56-0. That has translated to leads of 7-0, 7-0, 14-0, 21-0 and 7-0 in five games.





(Sell) On a neutral field, I'd pick the Longhorns to beat the Tide.

You think Sark might be licking his chops after watching Georgia’s 1st quarter in Tuscaloosa?

One thing on the Tide: We saw in the second half what can be done against their secondary. That’s the one potential matchup where I do wonder if Arch brings more to the table with his deep ball prowess.
 
If they don’t make in-game adjustments like this against good/great teams, then I’ll be pissed.
We purposefully played a light box, and took away underneath throws, against this team because it forced them to beat us with explosives passes we knew they had no shot to execute. I think we could have added some more bodies on third and short plays.
Seems they made in game adjustments in the 2nd half.
 
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It'll be a real test along the OL front. It's not what Flood wants.
Totally agreed. But we’ll be staring at Colt’s sophomore year next year ( after all the linemen went to the NFL after his freshman year), if we don’t. Arch is used to running for his life, though, from his high school. Just can’t imagine Sark risking a year of time with Arch with a totally unproven line.
 
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Totally agreed. But we’ll be staring at Colt’s sophomore year next year ( after all the linemen went to the NFL after his freshman year), if we don’t. Arch is used to running for his life, though, from his high school. Just can’t imagine Sark risking a year of time with Arch with a totally unproven line.
I don't disagree, in theory.
 
It's a game of hits and misses. One doesn't come without the other.
No doubt. I guess if we are using baseball metaphors then I'm saying don't even take an at-bat on that topic. Announce it safely from the peanut gallery.

(but still 100% step up to the plate on win/loss predictions, recruit crystal balling, coaching hires)
 
I love ya @Ketchum, and I have been a fan of yours for decades…but yes, you have to wear the Gilbert and Hudson Card misses (and his “elite arm talent”). I generally trust your talent evaluations, but when it comes to QB’s and OL I typically take your opinion with a large grain of salt. All good, you and I agree on 99 percent of everything else, but your evaluations of both QB’s and OL’s (do I really need to name them?) is typically not your strong suit.
 
Really feels like you create false narratives to set yourself up as seeing things early. What knowledgeable fan doesn’t know Arch is a top 10 QB in college now? I would argue he’s closer to top 3. You are underrating him.

Should he start over Quinn? No. Quinn’s experience and leadership qualities give him the edge. But it’s very close. Arch has a deep ball that Quinn (and anyone else in College) doesn’t have. That is a huge skill.

Quinn does get the ball out quicker, which really helps the OL.

In short, I don’t think you are somehow ahead of any curve here. Arch is the man!!

He’s at WORST, top 5. Outside of Quinn and Milroe, who else would be ahead of Arch?
 
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No doubt. I guess if we are using baseball metaphors then I'm saying don't even take an at-bat on that topic. Announce it safely from the peanut gallery.

(but still 100% step up to the plate on win/loss predictions, recruit crystal balling, coaching hires)
I don't like safe. I like being right. And first whenever I can be.
 
I don't like safe. I like being right. And first whenever I can be.
I can dig that.

How does a guy like Garrett Gilbert fit in then? Obviously wasn't good here but was good enough to play in the NFL and be one of the top 60 QBs on the planet (which should mean serviceable in college).
 
I love ya @Ketchum, and I have been a fan of yours for decades…but yes, you have to wear the Gilbert and Hudson Card misses (and his “elite arm talent”). I generally trust your talent evaluations, but when it comes to QB’s and OL I typically take your opinion with a large grain of salt. All good, you and I agree on 99 percent of everything else, but your evaluations of both QB’s and OL’s (do I really need to name them?) is typically not your strong suit.

My career of rating elite quarterbacks quarterbacks.

* Active Players

5 stars

1998 - Chip Ambres (Texas A&M)
2002 - Vince Young (Texas)
2002 - Reggie McNeal (Texas A&M)
2004 - Rhett Bomar (Oklahoma)
2006 - Matt Stafford (Georgia)
2007 - Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
2009 - Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
2009 - Russell Shepard (LSU)
* 2020 - Hudson Card (Texas/Purdue)
* 2021 Quinn Ewers (Ohio State/Texas)
* 2021 Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
* 2022 Cade Klubnik (Clemson)
* 2024 DJ Lagway (Florida)

Ambres never made it to A&M because of pro baseball. McNeal was listed as an athlete by Rivals, but I rated him as a quarterback. If we take Ambres of out of the equation I'm 7 for 7 all-time on the 5-star quarterbacks I've rated being drafted by NFL teams.

High 4

1997 - Drew Brees (Purdue)
2000 - Chance Mock (Texas)
2004 - Stephen McGee (Texas A&M)
2004 - Robbie Reid (Oklahoma State)
2006 - Jevan Snead (Texas)
2009 - Tyrik Rollion
2014 - Jerrod Heard (Texas)
2015 - Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
2017 - Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
* 2022 - Connor Weigman (A&M)
* 2023 - Jackson Arnold (OU)

Overall, 11 of the 16 (68.8%) highest-rated quarterbacks I've graded over the course of the last two decades worth of recruiting have been drafted by NFL teams.

I know what my track record on this stuff is. My opinions on the matter can be quantified. As recent as the last completed super blue chip quarterback career (Ehlinger), I was the only person to correctly name Ehlinger as the best quarterback in the state and a high four star prospect, a shot that I called before he even had a single scholarship offer.

So, with all due respect, you really don't know what you're talking about.
 
I can dig that.

How does a guy like Garrett Gilbert fit in then? Obviously wasn't good here but was good enough to play in the NFL and be one of the top 60 QBs on the planet (which should mean serviceable in college).

Some grey territory.

He was the only quarterback out of 33 in the state that were ranked that year that ended up in the NFL.
 
I agree with the comments of others that Shenandoah belongs on your list and probably in the Top 5. The emotion in the closing scene when the family shows up at their church was an unbelievable tear-jerker. I have always considered Its A Wonderful Life my favorite movie of all time. I have been surprised numerous times in social settings when others say they have never heard of the movie.
 
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