There's good news and bad news.
The good news is that Texas, Oklahoma and the Big 12 have all kind of shaken hands and agreed to let 2023-24 be the final goodbye in the relationship.
The bad news is that Fox is having none of it.
On Friday, I was probably buying the good more than the bad, but with a couple of days to think about it, I'm starting to understand the weight of the bad.
Here's what Pete Thamel of ESPN wrote on Friday:
"After weeks of negotiations, Texas and Oklahoma are still slated to join the SEC in 2025. Sources said the parties couldn't come to terms amid a complex negotiation involving two schools, two networks (ESPN and Fox) and the Big 12.
Sources said the sides couldn't agree on how to create equitable value for what Fox would lose in 2024 -- the equivalent of seven football games featuring Oklahoma and Texas that command premium advertising."
The question I started to ask myself is how much is equitable value of these seven games. After all, how much is a game involving Texas that would command premium ad sales actually worth?
According to a Sports Business Journal article from three months ago, Fox was earning $106,320 per 30 second spot for its Saturday College Football package.
The average college football game has three separate 2:30 TV timeouts per quarter. That's $534,000+ per TV time out. That's $1,600,000 per quarter. That's $6,309,000 per game.
Over the course of 7 games, we're talking $45 million. At a bare minimum.
In a world where the economy is uncertain and where Fox shareholders lost $85 million in the last quarter of 2022 alone (despite a jump in revenue), this 45 million is no small final hurdle.
Fox wants to make its money. ESPN isn't exactly going to want to give away its own pot of millions by giving away games from its own programming calendar.
That puts this bill at the feet of Texas and Oklahoma.
In the event that you're wondering, it's very, very hard to imagine that either school is going to want to hold a 25 million-plus bill to make Fox whole. As much as college football plays around with money like it’s a game of Monopoly, neither school is going to set anywhere close to that amount of money on fire because it can't be patient and wait another 12 months.
Not at a time when there's a teacher shortage in the state of Oklahoma that has been labeled "beyond crisis point". Not at a time when OU recently raised tuition costs by roughly 3% in 2021, despite a loud public outcry. Things are much better on the other side of the Red River where there's a statewide 33 billion budget surplus and a $42.3 billion endowment that is quickly close to catching Harvard down from behind like its Darrell Green running down Tony Dorsett on Monday night football.
If Texas wanted to, it could probably set that full 45 million on fire for sport and few would ever notice.
Yet, if Texas wanted to set tens of millions on fire in the name of changing football conferences, it could have already done so.
Whether it is based on principles or optics or dare one say ... common sense ... Texas has not shown an appetite to do such a thing since the announcement of the move to the SEC was made in the summer of 2021.
Clearly, there are negotiations taking place, but the bottom line remains the same at this point ... replacing the void in revenue from those seven premium ad games.
It's a little like A&M having to stay with Jimbo Fisher for the foreseeable future. Sure, it could probably come up with money is needed, but some things just can't be done. Such a thing would simply be viewed as reckless spending by a lot of people.
The same is true here. A lot of folks would view such spending as reckless, given the circumstances and the time left on the clock.
There's no question that this thing is closer to being done than it ever has been before. That's an extreme positive. Yet, if this thing is on the 5-yard line, the 1985 Chicago Bears are on the other side of the ball as the last line of defense before a deal gets done.
It's come down to money and just how much Texas and Oklahoma as a duo are willing to make a bonfire with.
Folks behind the scenes in the Big 12 are telling us that amount is so high at this point that optimism should be the word of the day.
No.2 - Holy moly, the Portal was gold in 2022!
How valuable is The Portal to college football teams ... truly?
It's a question that has been asked a lot in the last few years and it likely won't stop being a question that gets asked in the coming years.
When I did the data-crunching a year ago, while sorting through TheAthletic's transfer portal rankings, the following numbers were produced:
* 24% became significant difference-makers (All-America or first-team All-Conference)
* 62% became starters or significant contributors
* 26% were flat-out busts.
* 12% were significant injury casualties
In a world where basic four-star high school prospects fail to emerge into starters or significant contributors at a rate between 65-70 percent of the time, cutting that failure rate in half by taking players through the Portal seemed like a pretty dramatic discovery from my perspective, but the sample size was simply too small to make gigantic conclusions.
So, it's time to explore the results once again in an effort to further establish the proper value of the Portal market and what it can immediately provide a program vs. the traditional method of team building (recruiting unproven high school players).
Once again, I used the rankings from TheAthletic.com as our data-producing source and the results this year were pretty eye-opening.
(If you want to see a breakdown of all 50 players, scroll down to section 3)
* 24% became significant difference-makers (All-America or first-team All-Conference)
* 90% became starters or significant contributors
* 10% were flat-out busts.
* 0% were significant injury casualties
The numbers are out of control in the favorable department. The injury gods were kind to the entire lot, which allowed almost all of them to emerge as strong starters at a bare minimum. The amount of busts can be counted on one hand.
There's no other way to say it ... the results were overwhelmingly positive.
Perhaps it's too early to draw massive conclusions about the value of the Portal ... perhaps ... but, you could cut the percentage of players that immediately become starters or significant contributors in half and it would still represent more overall value than shopping for prospects at the high school ranks. From an immediate value standpoint, it's not even apples and apples. Or apples and oranges. It's more like apples and apple seeds.
You're not going to get any big sermons from me about the data and what it means. The numbers are so overwhelmingly one-sided that I'll just let them do the talking.
No. 3 - The full Top 50 Transfers Breakdown
Here's a look at how all of the top 50 transfers from TheAthletic.com performed in 2022.
1. QB Caleb Williams (USC via Oklahoma): Won the Heisman Trophy. I think we can safely file his name away in the significant difference-maker category.
2. RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama via Georgia Tech): Won All-America honors as an all-purpose back for the Tide and finished second in the history of the program with receptions by a running back in a single season. Is expected to be a first- or second-day pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
3. WR Jordan Addison (USC via Pittsburgh): Was named as a first-team All-Pac 12 player in 2022, despite batting an injury for more than a month during the middle of the season. Is expected to be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
4. QB Dillon Gabriel (OU via Central Florida) - Named the consensus Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year and earned second-team All-Big 12 honors.
5. OL Olusegun Oluwatimi (Michigan via Virginia) - Won consensus All-America honors, while also winning the Rimmington Award and Outland Trophy.
6. Zach Evans (Ole Miss via TCU): Rushed for 936 yards and 9 touchdowns as part of a running back rotation for the Rebels in 2022. Probably didn't have quite a big enough year to label him as a difference-maker, but that says a lot about the bar we've created.
7. LB Drew Sanders (Arkansas via Alabama): An All-American for the Hawgs in 2022, who finished as a finalist for the Butkus Award. Is expected to be a first- or second-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
8. DL Akeem Mesidor (Miami via West Virginia) - Emerged as a key starter for the Hurricanes at DT, recording 38 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks as a sophomore.
9. DB Brandon Joseph (Notre Dame via Northwestern): Started all 10 games for the Irish as a junior in 2022, but wasn't quite the impact player for the Irish that he had been for the Wildcats in the previous two seasons.
10. QB Cameron Ward (Washington State via Incarnate Ward): Started all 13 games for Washington State and earned honorable mention All-Pac 12 honors after throwing for 3,231 yards, 23 touchdowns and 9 INT.
11. WR Jermaine Burton (Alabama via Georgia): Was a 12-game starter for the Tide, catching 33 passes for 540 yards and 6 touchdowns as a junior.
12. Edge Jared Verse (FSU via Albany): Earned All-America honors in 2022 as a junior after recording 37 tackles, 16.5 TFL and 9 sacks.
13. OL O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida via Louisiana): Earned consensus All-America honors in 2022 and was a first-team All-SEC player. Is regarded as one of the best interior line players in the upcoming NFL Draft and was a standout at this week's Senior Bowl.
14. DB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon via Colorado): A first-team Al-Pac 12 selection in 2022 for the Ducks. Declared for the NFL Draft in December and is expected to be a first- or second-round pick.
15. DL Jaxon Player (Baylor via Tulsa): After earning first-team All-AAC honors in 2020 and 2021, Player started in only three games for the Bears and recorded 19 tackles and 4 TFL on the season. He's the first player to enter the bust category.
16. DL Gabriel Murphy (UCLA via North Texas): Started in all 13 games this season for the Bruins as a sophomore, recording 38 tackles, 4 TFL and 1.5 sacks.
17. DL Grayson Murphy (UCLA via North Texas): Started all 13 games for the Bruins as a sophomore, finishing second on the team with 9 tackles for loss and 5 sacks.
18. WR Jacob Cowing (Arizona via UTEP): Led the Pac-12 in receptions with 85, while finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,034) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (7).
19. WR Jaylon Robinson (Ole Miss via UCF): Appeared in only eight games and only caught 5 passes for the season. Bust.
20. OL Kingsley Suamataia (BYU via Oregon) Started all 12 games for BYU this season as a freshman. Named to several freshman All-American teams. May eventually move into the difference maker category in a season or two.
21. DE Chop Robinson (Penn State via Maryland): Earned second-team All-Big 10 honors as a sophomore in 2022 after recording 23 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and a forced fumble.
22. TE Michael Trigg (Ole Miss via USC): Started all seven games that he played in, catching 17 passes for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns as a sophomore.
23. WR Mario Williams (USC via OU): Started all season as a sophomore for the Trojans, catching 40 passes for 631 yards and 5 touchdowns.
24. DB Eli Ricks (Alabama via LSU): Started the season slow, but came on late in the year to become a very strong starter for the Tide. Declared for the NFL Draft following the season.
25. QB Spencer Rattler (South Carolina via OU): Played really well late in the season in wins over Clemson and Tennessee, but was just a solid player overall as a starter during his junior season.
26. LB Mohamoud Diabate (Utah via Florida): A 12-game starter for the Utes, Diabate recorded 58 tackles, a team best 13.5 TFL and ranked sixth among Pac-12 linebackers with 5 sacks.
27. QB Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss via USC): Started all 13 games as a sophomore, finishing with 2,974 yards, 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
28. Edge Ochaun Mathis (Nebraska via TCU): There's part of me that wants to put Mathis in the bust category because of all the fuss over his transfer and the fact that he started only two games this season. Yet, he finished with 50 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss and was second on the Huskers with 3.5 sacks. Basically, he was Ovie Oghoufo.
29. OL Tyler Steen (Alabama via Vanderbilt): Started all 13 games for the Tide at left tackle and was named All-SEC by the league's coaches. Played at the Senior Bowl this week and is getting ready for the NFL Draft after one season at Alabama.
30. QB Quinn Ewers (Texas via Ohio State): You guys know the drill. He was the outright starter as a redshirt freshman, but he was up and down throughout his first season as a starter.
31. LB Darius Muasau (UCLA visa Hawaii): Earned second-team All-Pac 12 honors after leading the Bruins with 91 tackles in his final season. Is currently getting ready for the NFL Draft.
32. RB Travis Dye (USC via Oregon): Had a very strong senior season in rushing for 884 yards and 9 touchdowns, while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
33. RB Christopher Brooks (BYU via California): Despite missing two games with injury, finished the season with 130 carries for 817 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 6.28 yards per carry and 74.3 yards per game.
34. WR Jadon Haselwood (Arkanas via OU): Led Arkansas with 59 receptions for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns.
35. QB Adrian Martinez (Kansas State via Nebraska): A 9-game starter for the Big 12 champions, who earned honorable mentioned all-Big 12 honors.
36. WR Ricky Pearsall (Florida via Arizona State): A 10-game starter for the Gators who caught 33 passes for 661 yards and 5 touchdowns.
37. OL McKade Mettauer (Oklahoma via California): A 12-game starter for the Sooners at guard, who will return in 2023 as the team's most experienced interior player.
38. WR Tyler Hudson (Louisville via Central Arkansas): Led Louisville with 69 receptions for 1,034 yards and 2 touchdowns.
39. WR Mitchell Tinsley (Penn State via Western Kentucky): Led Penn State with 51 receptions for 577 yards and a team-best 5 touchdowns.
40. Jeffery Johnson (Oklahoma via Tulane): Started half of his games with the Sooners and finished with only 23 tackles and 4 tackles for loss. It's hard to call the guy a bust because he was basically the same guy as he was at Tulane … he wasn't very good.
41. DL JJ Pegues (Ole Miss via Auburn): Was a rotation-player for the Rebels at defensive tackle as a junior, recording 26 tackles, 5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks on the season.
42. TE Austin Stogner (South Carolina via OU): Was a season-longer starter for the Gamecocks, catching 20 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown.
43. WR Antwane Wells (South Carolina via James Madison): Earned 1st-team All-SEC honors after leading the Gamecocks with 68 receptions for 928 yards and 6 touchdowns.
44. LB Eric Gentry (USC via Arizona State) - Emerged as a starter at inside linebacker as a sophomore and recorded 71 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.
45. QB J.T. Daniels (West Virginia via Georgia): Started for West Virginia throughout 2022, but wasn't very good by any reasonable standards. I'm going to throw him into the bust category.
46. QB Kedon Slovis (Pittsburgh via USC): Had a pretty dreadful season at Pittsburgh, so much so that he has now transferred to BYU.
47. RB Tiyon Evans (Louisville to Tennessee): Rushed for 536 yards and 6 touchdowns, while averaging a team-best 6.3 yards per carry as a junior for the Cardinals.
48. WR Charlie Jones (Purdue via Iowa): Earned All-America and first-team All-Big 10 honors after catching 110 passes for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns.
49. DL Darrell Jackson Jr. (Miami via Maryland): Was solid as a sophomore for the Canes, recording 27 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. Will be expected to tackle a larger role as a junior in 2023.
50. WR Johnny Wilson (Florida State via Arizona State): Earned second-team All-ACC honors as a redshirt sophomore, catching 43 passes for 897 yards and 5 touchdowns.
No. 4 - Appreciating Ja'Tavion Sanders ...
While cruising Twitter over the weekend, I got a glimpse of the following graphic.
As Ja'Tavion Sanders enters his junior season in 2023, I wonder if the Texas Longhorns universe fully appreciates what it has in the 6-4, 250-pound Sanders, who absolutely started to deliver on his five-star upside as a sophomore in 2022.
We all know that Georgia freak Brock Bowers is the best tight end in the country and is going to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if he stays healthy. That dude is flat out awesome.
Yet, for all of his awesomeness, he caught only nine more passes and two more touchdowns in 2022 than Sanders, despite playing two more games and playing with a Heisman finalist at quarterback.
Of the players listed on the graphic above, Sanders ranked second in receptions, second in yards (among power conference players) and tied for third in touchdown receptions. Those numbers were accumulated in spite of playing with quarterback play that was all over the place during the season and inside of an offense that didn't exactly feature him as a key element at times.
Basically, what I'm saying is that the Longhorns will enter the 2023 season with the second-best tight end in the country and a player that should compete with Bowers for the John Mackey Award
You'd have to go back 15 years to find a Texas tight end that represented the kind of passing game threat that Sanders brings to the table. Hell, the holy grail of Texas tight end play is 2005 national champion starter David Thomas and Sanders matched Thomas' 2005 season stride for stride in 2022.
It's actually kind of uncanny.
Thomas (2005); 50 receptions for 613 yards and 5 touchdowns
Sanders (2022): 54 receptions for 613 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, here's a look at the five next best tight end seasons in program history.
* 2007 Jermichael Finley: 45 receptions for 575 yards and 2 touchdowns
* 2006 Jermichael Finley: 31 receptions for 372 yards and 3 touchdowns
* 2001 Bo Scaife: 30 receptions for 396 yards and a touchdown
* 2004 Bo Scaife: 26 receptions for 348 yards and 2 touchdowns
* 2018 Andrew Beck: 28 receptions for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns
What the Longhorns have in Sanders shouldn't be taken for granted because once he's gone (possibly after the 2023 season), it might be a while before the Longhorns have another player at the tight end position that will prove to be the kind of match-up nightmare that Sanders brings to the table every time he steps on the field.
One look at the tight end depth chart will show that there's no one remotely like him waiting in the wings to take over and finding elite-level tight end prospects in the state of Texas often resembles trying to find a needle in a haystack.
It's not an accident that Texas has struggled to find tight ends that can catch two passes per game for most of the last 23 seasons of football.
That won't be a concern in 2023 because Texas absolutely has the player it needs.
With better quarterback play and a true commitment to maximize his skill set, Sanders just might produce a season that no Texas tight end in the future will ever replicate.
No. 5 - With Warren Roberson's commitment looming ...
Here's an updated look at the Texas scholarship board. Something is going to have to give after spring football.
No. 6 - Cornbread takeover in Manhattan ...
I'll be the first to admit that I didn't see the comeback against Kansas State coming from hundreds of miles away.
If anything, I thought Texas might get completely blown out in the second half based on what I had seen in the first half.
Yet, it took only a few possessions into the second half to see that the team that Chris Beard envisioned when he built it was in one of those moods. Suddenly, they were contesting every shot and forcing the Wildcats out of their comfort zone. Suddenly, bodies were flying all over the court with controlled reckless abandon.
For 20 minutes, Texas looked like a national championship contending team. The result was a massive road win that keeps the Longhorns alone in first place with eight games to go on the conference slate.
Winning back to back conference games against Baylor at home and Kansas State on the road has made winning the Big 12 feel suddenly very doable. The players and coaches deserve an immense amount of credit.
No. 7 - About Rodney Terry ...
My opinion about what Chris Del Conte needs to do after the season ends is not going to change.
He has to make an elite hire.
It comes down to this for me ...
If any major coaching gig opens up in the spring, would any of those schools seriously consider hiring Rodney Terry?
Why not?
Because he's not an elite head coaching product. Don't get me wrong, he's doing a hell of a job and he has to be the favorite for Big 12 Coach of the year at the moment. But, he didn't build this team. He's coaching Chris Beard's team. In his years as a head coach at the collegiate level, he never remotely performed at an elite level.
In future seasons, the job will call to build something elite and not just take the reins of one.
Hiring someone who has proven to be elite at doing that is paramount to Del Conte's task.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I was really starting to doubt that this team would make it past the first weekend for a while, but the team defense has returned to November form in the last few games. This team has a lot of guts. It feels like it should be an Elite 8 team.
(Sell) Mike McCarthy will be Mike McCarthy's downfall.
(Sell) It's not completely outside the realm of possibility, but he's never been a real playmaker in the secondary, as he has only three created turnovers in a three-year career and never more than one in any single season.
(Sell) I think we still might be a year away for Bledsoe as a major contributor.
(Sell) The baseball program will never have a retractable roof over the stadium. This athletic department can't replace the bubble and you think a retractable roof baseball stadium might be in the cards?
(Buy) It's the best thing the defense has going for it IMO.
(Buy) History has showed us it's a very real possibility. Just look at the current scholarship board. Still, those 10 that are left might end up being real bad ass players.
(Buy) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the 7-8 visits that he ends up taking to Texas before the dust settles will do the trick. Make it 85-percent.
(Sell) I have it some thought, but there are still other issues that exist. That's just one of them.
(Sell/Buy/Sell) I want to see Texas make the best possible hire. I hope Herman does well. Hard no on Beard.
(Buy) 75.
(Sell) I think 2024 might be the Christian Jones year.
(Buy) I think Sark has a huge amount of support from the people that make the decisions on these matters ... and I don't mean Del Conte.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... ESPN's Bracketology has Texas as the No. 2 seed in the South Region. Shaka Smart's Marquette is a 3-seed in the same region. No way these two teams meet up in the Sweet 16, right?
... Seven days after OU beat No. 2 Alabama by 24 points, it lost to West Virginia by 32 points.
... I'm sure this dude will stop hearing about this in a decade or so.
... Shout to the women's basketball team for its win over Kansas in Lawrence, which left the Longhorns alone in first place in the Big 12 standings, while riding a five-game winning streak that began with a 13-point win in Waco.
... It doesn't sound like Max Duggan did very much to impress at the Senior Bowl. It seems like scouts really like Fresno State's Jake Haender, who entered the Portal last year and then pulled his name out. That's a pretty huge what-if to the college football season in 2022 had he transferred to a big dog program.
... Kansas City 27, Philadelphia 24. In Mahomes, I trust.
... I watched about 60 seconds of the Pro Bowl flag football games. I'm good.
... Of course, Brian Schottenheimer is the new OC in Dallas. Whatever
... Dallas had to do the Kyree Irving deal because it needs to add an elite piece next to Luka by any means needed. It doesn't feel like what it gave to get Irving is that big of a deal, but the money it will have to give in order to keep him is entirely different. Good luck with that.
... I know that Lebron James triggers a lot of you, but it's beyond eye-popping that he's on the verge of taking Kareem's scoring record. It's either going to happen against OKC on Tuesday or against Milwaukee on Thursday. Both games are at Staples. You're damn right, I'll be watching.
... It's not just Liverpool that has had its legs, energy and want-to stripped after a brutal, non-stop chase against all-time greatness over the last few years. Man City looks absolutely spent as well. It just seems like competing against each other's standard has come at a cost for both.
... I miss Sadio Mane.
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 Favorite Rap Songs from the 1990s ...
It hit me a few weeks back while I was listening to 8-Ball and MJG's "Mr. Big" that it had been 30 years since the song had been released.
It then dawn on me that I had been listening to 8-Ball and MJG for three freaking decades. It made me feel really old to think that this particular piece of music was to a 13-year old in 2023 what Bobby Darin or Frankie Avalon would have been to me in 1989.
This little bit of inner conversation got me to thinking about what the most important raps songs from the 1990s would look like. Thus, we have today's list. Keep in mind that this isn't what I believe the top 10 rap songs would look like if it were about all-time greatness. It's just about the music that I listened to when I was a teenager.
10. They Reminisce Over You (Pete Rock and CL Smooth)
I never listened to a bunch of Pete Rock and CL Smooth, but this song absolutely has everything. It reminds me of watching Yo MTV Raps because that's definitely where I first heard it.
9. I Get Around (2Pac with Digital Underground)
One of my favorite songs of all time. If I had a dollar for every time I played this very loudly with the windows down while driving my maroon 1989 Mercury Tracer, I'd be able to fly to Europe first-class.
8. Murder (UGK)
This was my song when I was a student at Texas. One of the best tracks any rapper has ever cut.
7. Take it Personal (Gang Star)
There were about two months during my high school years when I went through a Gang Star phase and not a single person I knew was going through the same phase.
6. Now I Feel You (Scarface)
There had to be a Scarface track somewhere on the list. Here it is.
5. Nuthin' But a G Thang (Dr. Dre and Snoop Doggy Dog)
The all-time HS party rap song from 1993-94. It basically stayed on repeat during those years at Keg parties.
4. Holler if You Hear Me (2Pac)
My introduction song to Pac and still my favorite song of his.
3. Player's Ball (Outkast)
I can remember taking this CD with me to Philadelphia in the summer of 1994 and imploring to everyone that I met that this was the best rap duo on the planet at the time. I feel like history has vindicated me.
2. Mind Playing Tricks on Me (Geto Boys)
This could easily be my No. 1 song. After seeing the Geto Boys in concert in 1989 when I was 13, it was a very big deal when the group released its greatest song when I was in high school.
1. Scenario (A Tribe Called Quest)
This song reminds me of my best friend from high school (Chris Marshall). It does something to me in my feelings every time I hear it.
