Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Coaching update, Sam's meeting with Tom and more...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I totally hear you. There are few guarantees on the box and those dudes represent some form of that.
That’s interesting but not surprising. OU provides a template for such a thought process.
7-3 is the best finish Texas can have. 8-3 was dependent on Kansas which got canceled and given the Jayhawks finished 0-9 it's near certain Texas would have won. as a friend who is a UT grad said before the game was called off if Herman loses to Kansas he might as well not get on the plane back to Austin. he's probably right on that.
why shouldn't 7-3 be reason for optimism? Texas lost three close games. not one was a blow out loss.
since it looks like Meyer isn't coming and and the very short list of top coaches likely won't leave their current programs then you stay with Herman. unless you want to end up like Houston who let their big bucks moneyman Tilman Fertitta force out the Major for going 8-5 and replacing him with his handpicked wonder coach Dana Boogersen. no that's not a typo lol. how'd that work out? not so good which is exactly what will happen if the Texas moneymen decide they know more about football than what they do best, make money.
Would you still called him a failed coach if the games wouldn’t have been canceled and we were sitting at 9-3 now?
He has built at lest an 11 win team for 2021. You better hope that he doesn’t come back and wins at least ten games in the regular season.
I guess you would still call him a failed coach.
The real failed coach would be one that would come in an win less than ten games with this roster.
Of course, I would call Herman a failed coach if he didn’t win at least ten games in the regular season in 2021.
i did too. let's see what he does in a few years and hopefully the Auburn fans are realistic and don't hyperventilate thinking Harsin can make Auburn into the Boise St. of the SEC West overnight.
i think Brown made a good choice bringing in Harsin on offense but pairing him as co-OC with the Major was a mistake. he should have made Harsin the OC and let him set the offense.
while it's a moot point now but given Harsin's proven record at Boise St. if things had played out differently what would you think of Texas hiring Harsin as coach? i would have been for it.
He became a failed coach for me after tcu and ou. 2022 croots agree with me.
God bless Boernefan. He’s a good positive guy but the epitome of the free beer tomorrow sign you see at bars.
Check with Alex on the strength of the roster at the beginning of this year vs what it will be at the beginning of next year.
I think you will agree that the running backs, TE’s and WR’s (with Jordan & Troy back) will be better than last year. The offensive line may be better, will have to see if they are as good as they showed in the KSU game.
The real question is QB. Is Card or Thompson a better passer than Sam or will Sam be back?
You addressed the development of the defense a few weeks ago .
What games do you expect us to lose in the regular season in 2021?
Am I too optimistic?
I don't need to check with Alex on anything.
You are being significantly optimistic.
isn't that why we're in the situation we are in now? Texas should never have forced Mack Brown out. Texas was lucky Mack put aside any ego and pride and resigned rather than force Texas to fire him. don't think that was an easy thing to do either. it had to sting even with that last paycheck cashed.
some may be surprised at Brown's early success after returning to UNC but i'm not.
he all but put Willie Taggart on the "soon to be unemployed coach" list by flipping Sam Howell a NC kid away from Free Shoes U. probably sold him on being the next Colt McCoy, which he is.
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@Ketchum. Sams also has to be factoring in what the face of the program could do with the new NIL rules in 2021 in Austin Texas don't you think? Obviously the stuff you mentioned is key, but Sam is a very bright McCombs marketing guy. He could make a lot of money as he trys to raise his draft stock at the same time.
- Jan 14, 2011
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Powers and the Berkeleyites (incl Fenves) have accomplished their mission.
Perry didn’t need Wallace Hall, he just had to let his enemy keep making mistakes.
Winning is key to greatness. Ehlinger is personally and solely responsible for at least four losses during his tenure. And has been at the helm for 18-freaking losses. He is not in the top six of UT quarterbacks:
Although Texas plays in a bowl game in less than 48 hours (it's true!), I know what you want from me.
You want an update, even if there's not much to say.
Well, when it comes to using a lot of words to say absolutely nothing at all, I'm your man! So, let's get into it.
a. All of the quiet that has taken place for the last couple of weeks was completely expected. In fact, I told you guys 22 days ago to expect a very ominous silence to follow the program around for the rest of December and through the bowl game. Barring Urban Meyer calling Texas officials and telling them that he wanted the job immediately, the expectation has always existed that Tom Herman would coach the bowl game.
b. There remains an intense desire to make a coaching change following the bowl game. If you want to know why Chris Del Conte's vote of confidence from a couple of weeks ago was so.... hmmm... let's call it wishy-washy... it has everything to do with this desire.
Make no mistake about it, the talk among BMDs (big money donors) is that change is on the way, come hell or high water. The talk is emphatic, defiant and cocksure. Meanwhile, the rhetoric coming out of the athletic department is less emphatic. My highest-level sourcing is somewhere in between, meaning that depending on the day and the source, the confidence level can range anywhere between 3 and 10.
c. Everyone agrees that vetting the availability of the desired candidates continues to take place behind the scenes.
d. The Urban Meyer stuff is tough to get a handle on. There continues to be an expectation that the Longhorns will go after Meyer with an improved gameplan or offer, but ironclad details have been tough to come by. In talking with sources connected to Meyer's family on Sunday, there was laughter about the persistence of the Texas pursuit. Frankly, the folks in Ohio would be so shocked to see Meyer end up at Texas that the entire state would take it as a sign of the apocalypse. The NFL speculation this weekend is being taken more seriously than Texas when talking to non-Texas sources. Pay attention to anything YahooSports' Pete Thamel reports in the coming days.
e. Although the most desired back-up choices are considered long-shots, I've spoken to sources who believe potential opportunities could exist. Texas absolutely will not reveal its cards with those potential targets before their seasons are complete.
f. The vibe inside the athletic department can best be described as pragmatic. While the BMDs want change no matter what, decision makers are still dubious over Texas being able to land Meyer or another top-tier coach in the next couple of weeks. These folks are more lukewarm about making a change for the sake of change unless there's a home run available.
Bottom line from my perspective?
I haven't had my highest-level sourcing tell me that change is definitely happening, and until that happens, I'm going to ride the fence a little. I refuse to believe that Texas will fire Herman without a replacement in place because the school does not want to "pull an Auburn".
No. 2 - About Sam's pending decision...
A week ago, I would have told you there's no way in hell Sam Ehlinger returns for the 2021 season.
The combination of Ehlinger hearing positive NFL talk behind the scenes and the fact that 2020 has been miserable on so many levels had me thinking he would be on the first train out of town as soon as the final snap of the season is played.
Yet, sources with knowledge of the situation informed me over the weekend that Ehlinger is giving serious thought to returning for another season after meeting with Herman less than two weeks ago to talk about the possibility. Herman made a strong enough case that it has given his quarterback something to think about.
At the root of the argument for Sam's return:
* Improve his NFL draft stock with a second season under the care of Mike Yurcich and come out in a year when there aren't potentially 10 quarterbacks ranked ahead of him.
* Improve the taste in his mouth from what has been a dreadful final season. Returning would give him a chance to not only beat Oklahoma and contend for a Big 12 Championship, but it would likely be a re-do with a full off-season, fans returning to the stands in large numbers and no Eyes of Texas distraction.
It's under consideration.
No. 3 - My reaction to the Sam stuff ...
If I'm Herman, I totally understand hoping Ehlinger returns.
It's like being on "Let's Make A Deal" and having $10,000 in your hand and being asked to give it up because there's a strong chance there might be a new car behind curtain No.3.
As the president of the Hudson Card Fan Club, I think his upside as a passer is higher than Ehlinger's, especially in 2022 and 2023. Yet, I can't say for certain that a kid that has never had a full off-season in a college program is definitely going to be better than a guy who is pretty much a Top 6 quarterback in the history of the program.
I can't imagine it would make the quarterbacks on campus happy, but Ehlinger's return makes the 2021 team better. Period.
The big question is whether being better in 2021 potentially hurts you in 2022 or 2023 because of curbing the development of Card. That's a tough one to answer.
No. 4 - A quick personal rant ...
As Texas looks to add pieces to the 2021 recruiting class through transfers, there are a couple of rules that should be followed.
a. Transfers that can make a definite impact on the 2021 season are more important/valuable than taking three-star or two-star talent that have 85-90 percent miss rates and almost certainly will take two or three seasons before they might make good on that 10-percent hit rate.
b. If you're going to take a flyer on three-star level prospects, they need to be from the state of Texas. Full-stop.
In a situation where failure exceeds success by a margin of 10 to 1 with high school prospects, all offers should be seen as investments into areas where you'll want to have success in the future. Metroplex. Houston. East Texas. When Texas received a commitment over the weekend from Bryan (Texas) Rudder receiver Keithron Lee, it ticked multiple boxes beyond his talent.
The Texas program should never go out of state for non-premium recruits. Never. Unless it’s a special situation, like landing an offensive lineman from the West or Midwest regions of the country, all lower-end recruiting targets should be from the state of Texas. When I see the Texas coaches combing out of state areas for players that should easily be found at home, it makes me think they can't see the forest because of the trees.
Details matter.
No. 5 - Five things to watch in the Alamo Bowl ...
a. Sam, Sam, Sam. Given his current situation, what kind of performance will we see and through which lens will we see it? If Texas wins and he's the MVP, is that good or bad for a return? Same with losing? Would he dare get up on a stage, accept the MVP trophy and then shout out, "I'm coming baaaaaaaack!"
b. Feed Bijan. It feels like he's the future, which means that treating him as such in the final game of the 2020 season would represent a good thing. Ending the season with the third 100-yard outing in his last four games would be a sign that he's the top weapon for the program going into the 2021 season.
c. A suddenly young team at center and left tackle looked pretty damn good the only time we saw them. Another quality performance from Jake Majors and Andrej Keric would go a long way toward feeling good about the offensive line going into 2021.
d. How will Chris Ash create a pass rush without Joseph Ossai?
e. Does this team show up and play for Herman?
No. 6 - The Greg Brown Show ...
Without any hoops this weekend, I stumbled across this from January and thought I would share it.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That has not happened.
(Sell) I hope I described the situation well in the first section, but I understand why they are saying 100 percent, but I wouldn't quite go that high, even if I'm sure we've heard from similar folks that it will be 100 percent. I just know that not everyone involved in the process would use that number, which is why I won't.
(Sell) I love your optimism though.
(Buy) It's just a game.
(Buy) I just don't know when.
(Sell) I'm not convinced of that just yet, but I'm open-minded.
(Sell) Texas will take a shot and might get him a raise, but the betting favorite would be against it happening for the Longhorns. From what I know, there are a few areas where Texas believes it might be able to exploit - money, recruiting advantages and a willingness to pay assistants top salaries.
(Buy) I'll always believe that so much more could have been accomplished.
(Buy) Can? Sure. Will or would? I don't know if I believe that at all.
(Buy) Casey Thompson would probably find that to be a tough pill to swallow.
(Sell) The original is one of the GOATs and cannot be defeated, but I'm all-in on giving it every chance to prove me wrong.
(Sell) I don't sense that the people in the program believe he's going to be THAT good.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports...
... Rest in peace, Ty Jordan.
... I lied. Outside of a little bit of Liberty/Coastal Carolina, I didn't watch any bowl games last week.
... All it took for me to get into the Dallas game and root for a win was to see DeSean Jackson clowning on the Cowboys in the first quarter. Anger activated. Draft position be damned.
... Go ahead and extend Mitchell Trubisky. I double-dog dare you, Chicago.
... The Steelers are back?
... Until Arizona kicks Kliff Kingsbury to the curb, that franchise is going nowhere.
... I still can't believe the Raiders lost that game.
... I still can't believe the Jets are on a two-game winning streak and blew the chance to land Trevor Lawrence.
... If you faced Alvin Kamara in your fantasy championship game this weekend, you never had a chance.
... This needs to be a reality TV show.
... Ridiculous
... The Clippers should be relegated for losing by 51 points to Dallas. That just can't happen.
... The Brooklyn Nets look like a team to watch in May.
... This felt like the truest tweet I saw all weekend.
No. 9 - The List: Hall and Oates
I've been on a huge Hall and Oates kick over the course of the last few weeks. In fact, after decades of listing "Maneater" as my top choice, I've decided a change must be made.
10. Kiss on My List
9. I Can't Go For That
8. Say It Isn't So
7. Private Eyes
6. One on One
5. Rich Girl
4. You Make My Dreams (Come True)
3. She's Gone
2. Maneater
1. Sara Smile
The following lyrics from Daryl Hall might be the sexiest verse in the history of popular music (no hyperbole):
"If you feel like leaving, you know you can go
But why don't you stay until tomorrow?
If you want to be free, you know, all you got to do is say so
And when you feel cold, I'll warm you
And when you feel you can't go on, I'll come and hold you
It's you and me forever"
No.10 - And finally...
Short and sweet - here's to 2020 ending and 2021 being the kind of year that we can all embrace with open arms.
Cheers!
1. Bobby Layne
2. Vince Young
3. James Street
4. Colt McCoy
5. Marty Akins
6. Chris Simms
7. James Brown
8. Major Applewhite
9. Duke Carlisle
10. Eddie Phillips
Great quarterbacks win.
@Ketchum how do you think the Big 12 will do in bowl season?
Although Texas plays in a bowl game in less than 48 hours (it's true!), I know what you want from me.
You want an update, even if there's not much to say.
Well, when it comes to using a lot of words to say absolutely nothing at all, I'm your man! So, let's get into it.
a. All of the quiet that has taken place for the last couple of weeks was completely expected. In fact, I told you guys 22 days ago to expect a very ominous silence to follow the program around for the rest of December and through the bowl game. Barring Urban Meyer calling Texas officials and telling them that he wanted the job immediately, the expectation has always existed that Tom Herman would coach the bowl game.
b. There remains an intense desire to make a coaching change following the bowl game. If you want to know why Chris Del Conte's vote of confidence from a couple of weeks ago was so.... hmmm... let's call it wishy-washy... it has everything to do with this desire.
Make no mistake about it, the talk among BMDs (big money donors) is that change is on the way, come hell or high water. The talk is emphatic, defiant and cocksure. Meanwhile, the rhetoric coming out of the athletic department is less emphatic. My highest-level sourcing is somewhere in between, meaning that depending on the day and the source, the confidence level can range anywhere between 3 and 10.
c. Everyone agrees that vetting the availability of the desired candidates continues to take place behind the scenes.
d. The Urban Meyer stuff is tough to get a handle on. There continues to be an expectation that the Longhorns will go after Meyer with an improved gameplan or offer, but ironclad details have been tough to come by. In talking with sources connected to Meyer's family on Sunday, there was laughter about the persistence of the Texas pursuit. Frankly, the folks in Ohio would be so shocked to see Meyer end up at Texas that the entire state would take it as a sign of the apocalypse. The NFL speculation this weekend is being taken more seriously than Texas when talking to non-Texas sources. Pay attention to anything YahooSports' Pete Thamel reports in the coming days.
e. Although the most desired back-up choices are considered long-shots, I've spoken to sources who believe potential opportunities could exist. Texas absolutely will not reveal its cards with those potential targets before their seasons are complete.
f. The vibe inside the athletic department can best be described as pragmatic. While the BMDs want change no matter what, decision makers are still dubious over Texas being able to land Meyer or another top-tier coach in the next couple of weeks. These folks are more lukewarm about making a change for the sake of change unless there's a home run available.
Bottom line from my perspective?
I haven't had my highest-level sourcing tell me that change is definitely happening, and until that happens, I'm going to ride the fence a little. I refuse to believe that Texas will fire Herman without a replacement in place because the school does not want to "pull an Auburn".
No. 2 - About Sam's pending decision...
A week ago, I would have told you there's no way in hell Sam Ehlinger returns for the 2021 season.
The combination of Ehlinger hearing positive NFL talk behind the scenes and the fact that 2020 has been miserable on so many levels had me thinking he would be on the first train out of town as soon as the final snap of the season is played.
Yet, sources with knowledge of the situation informed me over the weekend that Ehlinger is giving serious thought to returning for another season after meeting with Herman less than two weeks ago to talk about the possibility. Herman made a strong enough case that it has given his quarterback something to think about.
At the root of the argument for Sam's return:
* Improve his NFL draft stock with a second season under the care of Mike Yurcich and come out in a year when there aren't potentially 10 quarterbacks ranked ahead of him.
* Improve the taste in his mouth from what has been a dreadful final season. Returning would give him a chance to not only beat Oklahoma and contend for a Big 12 Championship, but it would likely be a re-do with a full off-season, fans returning to the stands in large numbers and no Eyes of Texas distraction.
It's under consideration.
No. 3 - My reaction to the Sam stuff ...
If I'm Herman, I totally understand hoping Ehlinger returns.
It's like being on "Let's Make A Deal" and having $10,000 in your hand and being asked to give it up because there's a strong chance there might be a new car behind curtain No.3.
As the president of the Hudson Card Fan Club, I think his upside as a passer is higher than Ehlinger's, especially in 2022 and 2023. Yet, I can't say for certain that a kid that has never had a full off-season in a college program is definitely going to be better than a guy who is pretty much a Top 6 quarterback in the history of the program.
I can't imagine it would make the quarterbacks on campus happy, but Ehlinger's return makes the 2021 team better. Period.
The big question is whether being better in 2021 potentially hurts you in 2022 or 2023 because of curbing the development of Card. That's a tough one to answer.
No. 4 - A quick personal rant ...
As Texas looks to add pieces to the 2021 recruiting class through transfers, there are a couple of rules that should be followed.
a. Transfers that can make a definite impact on the 2021 season are more important/valuable than taking three-star or two-star talent that have 85-90 percent miss rates and almost certainly will take two or three seasons before they might make good on that 10-percent hit rate.
b. If you're going to take a flyer on three-star level prospects, they need to be from the state of Texas. Full-stop.
In a situation where failure exceeds success by a margin of 10 to 1 with high school prospects, all offers should be seen as investments into areas where you'll want to have success in the future. Metroplex. Houston. East Texas. When Texas received a commitment over the weekend from Bryan (Texas) Rudder receiver Keithron Lee, it ticked multiple boxes beyond his talent.
The Texas program should never go out of state for non-premium recruits. Never. Unless it’s a special situation, like landing an offensive lineman from the West or Midwest regions of the country, all lower-end recruiting targets should be from the state of Texas. When I see the Texas coaches combing out of state areas for players that should easily be found at home, it makes me think they can't see the forest because of the trees.
Details matter.
No. 5 - Five things to watch in the Alamo Bowl ...
a. Sam, Sam, Sam. Given his current situation, what kind of performance will we see and through which lens will we see it? If Texas wins and he's the MVP, is that good or bad for a return? Same with losing? Would he dare get up on a stage, accept the MVP trophy and then shout out, "I'm coming baaaaaaaack!"
b. Feed Bijan. It feels like he's the future, which means that treating him as such in the final game of the 2020 season would represent a good thing. Ending the season with the third 100-yard outing in his last four games would be a sign that he's the top weapon for the program going into the 2021 season.
c. A suddenly young team at center and left tackle looked pretty damn good the only time we saw them. Another quality performance from Jake Majors and Andrej Keric would go a long way toward feeling good about the offensive line going into 2021.
d. How will Chris Ash create a pass rush without Joseph Ossai?
e. Does this team show up and play for Herman?
No. 6 - The Greg Brown Show ...
Without any hoops this weekend, I stumbled across this from January and thought I would share it.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That has not happened.
(Sell) I hope I described the situation well in the first section, but I understand why they are saying 100 percent, but I wouldn't quite go that high, even if I'm sure we've heard from similar folks that it will be 100 percent. I just know that not everyone involved in the process would use that number, which is why I won't.
(Sell) I love your optimism though.
(Buy) It's just a game.
(Buy) I just don't know when.
(Sell) I'm not convinced of that just yet, but I'm open-minded.
(Sell) Texas will take a shot and might get him a raise, but the betting favorite would be against it happening for the Longhorns. From what I know, there are a few areas where Texas believes it might be able to exploit - money, recruiting advantages and a willingness to pay assistants top salaries.
(Buy) I'll always believe that so much more could have been accomplished.
(Buy) Can? Sure. Will or would? I don't know if I believe that at all.
(Buy) Casey Thompson would probably find that to be a tough pill to swallow.
(Sell) The original is one of the GOATs and cannot be defeated, but I'm all-in on giving it every chance to prove me wrong.
(Sell) I don't sense that the people in the program believe he's going to be THAT good.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports...
... Rest in peace, Ty Jordan.
... I lied. Outside of a little bit of Liberty/Coastal Carolina, I didn't watch any bowl games last week.
... All it took for me to get into the Dallas game and root for a win was to see DeSean Jackson clowning on the Cowboys in the first quarter. Anger activated. Draft position be damned.
... Go ahead and extend Mitchell Trubisky. I double-dog dare you, Chicago.
... The Steelers are back?
... Until Arizona kicks Kliff Kingsbury to the curb, that franchise is going nowhere.
... I still can't believe the Raiders lost that game.
... I still can't believe the Jets are on a two-game winning streak and blew the chance to land Trevor Lawrence.
... If you faced Alvin Kamara in your fantasy championship game this weekend, you never had a chance.
... This needs to be a reality TV show.
... Ridiculous
... The Clippers should be relegated for losing by 51 points to Dallas. That just can't happen.
... The Brooklyn Nets look like a team to watch in May.
... This felt like the truest tweet I saw all weekend.
No. 9 - The List: Hall and Oates
I've been on a huge Hall and Oates kick over the course of the last few weeks. In fact, after decades of listing "Maneater" as my top choice, I've decided a change must be made.
10. Kiss on My List
9. I Can't Go For That
8. Say It Isn't So
7. Private Eyes
6. One on One
5. Rich Girl
4. You Make My Dreams (Come True)
3. She's Gone
2. Maneater
1. Sara Smile
The following lyrics from Daryl Hall might be the sexiest verse in the history of popular music (no hyperbole):
"If you feel like leaving, you know you can go
But why don't you stay until tomorrow?
If you want to be free, you know, all you got to do is say so
And when you feel cold, I'll warm you
And when you feel you can't go on, I'll come and hold you
It's you and me forever"
No.10 - And finally...
Short and sweet - here's to 2020 ending and 2021 being the kind of year that we can all embrace with open arms.
Cheers!
As well as 2017-2020... though agree he and Texas needed to part company circa 2014. Texas just blew the succession plan both for HC (Saban) and AD (Luck).
why? because big juice boosters who couldn't coach a pee-wee league team thought 8-4 wasn't good enough after winning a NC?
Saban was never coming to Texas. and Luck turned down the AD job because the condition was to fire Brown just to fire him. Steve Patterson being the ahole he is was more than willing to screw over Brown and set the program back by hiring Strong and not backing him up with a top staff.
do you think DeLoss Dodds would have made those mistakes?
not in this reality.
If that’s the worst case scenario ID rather be Houston than whatever the hell we are now. OU’s step son is now way to go through life. You might enjoy that sounds like.
There are a lot of positives for Sam if he comes back IMO.
Who the hell knows. I have no idea what Texas does tonight with departures, COVID and outright give a **** in question.
There's a lot to process there, but ranking Chris Simms over James Brown might be the most insulting thing I've ever seen on this message board.
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