Recruiting matters.
You've heard me say it a million times. Pretty much every year (except this year), you've seen me break down the metrics from each NFL Draft in a way that makes things pretty plain for you to see. One of my goals as a long-time recruiting analyst is to make recruiting as transparent as possible in terms of what a commitment means when projecting possible NFL upside when the commitment is actually received.
Well, that's not what this column is about.
Quite the contrary, actually.
Using the same data that I've acquired over the last half-decade, I'm going to present you a new two-letter declaration that needs to reside right next to my "recruiting matters" mantra. Ready for it? Here goes ...
Development matters.
Too often when I've written about the metrics of recruiting through the prism of the Rivals recruiting star system, I think I've focused too much on the success of the higher-ranked prospects and not enough on the failure rate, which potentially paints a picture that might just change the way you look at the importance of having quality coaching.
Using a four-year average of NFL Draft data that I accumulated from 2015-2018 (2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015), I want everyone to take a look at the the Rivals star system in terms of failing to develop into drafted NFL Draft prospects.
Five stars (6.1) - 31.84-percent
High Four Stars (6.0) - 62.04-percent
Mid Four Stars (5.9) - 76.84-percent
Low Four Star (5.8) - 82.75-percent
High Three stars (5.7) - 89.26-percent
Mid Three stars (5.6) - 93.07-percent
Low Four Stars (5.5) - 95.39-percent
The biggest takeaway I want you guys to have from this set of numbers is that while a low four-star prospect projects as a future NFL drafted player at nearly three times the rate of a mid-three star prospect, a prospect with that high of a ranking still fails to develop into an NFL drafted player at a 82.75-percent clip, while the mid-three star prospect checks in with a 93.07-percent failure rate.
Why is all of this important to you as a fan of the Texas football program?
Well, your talent isn't as good as all of the years of highly-ranked prospects might suggest that it is. For years I've been trying to tell everyone that the only recruits that really warrant special attention are those that rank in the national top 70-75 (or so), but in focusing on the top-rated players, the relative smaller margins among the rest of the four stars and all of the three stars seem to get lost along the way and I want that to stop.
When we look at the University of Texas roster, you'll find only nine players on the entire roster that arrived with a ranking in the top two Rivals tiers. Those players are: WR Devin Duvernay (2016 - 6.0), DB Caden Sterns (2018 - 6.1), DB BJ Foster (2018 - 6.0), DB Jalen Green (2018 - 6.0), WR Brennan Eagles (2018 - 6.0), DB Anthony Cook (2018 - 6.0), RB Jordan Whittington (2019 - 6.0), WR Jake Smith (2019 - 6.0) and DB Tyler Owens (2018 - 6.0)
What that means is that the other 70+ scholarship players on the roster all arrive in Austin with a projected 76.84 failure rate at best. What is also means is that when the Longhorns take on a program like Baylor, its advantage over a team that doesn't have a single 6.1 or 6.0-ranked player on its team is relatively meaningless once you get beyond those nine players listed above.
If one player fails to develop into a drafted NFL player at a rate between 76-82-percent and another player fails to develop into an NFL drafted player at a rate between 89-95 percent, we're somewhat splitting hairs about the advantage that exists when one roster has a bunch of four stars and high three stars, while another has a roster full of mostly three stars.
Is there an advantage for the Longhorns on paper? Yes.
Is it relatively minor, especially when the majority of the nine players the Longhorns have that represent the biggest talent advantage are all very young? You bet.
It means that what happens to those players once they enter college and the kind of hands-on development they receive matters significantly.
In dismantling the Longhorns by two scores on Saturday, the Bears didn't pull off some sort of miracle. All that happened is that Baylor's players were coached and developed at much higher levels than the Texas players received from their staff. In a sport where the fine margins are often so significant, it turns out that the Longhorns merely wasted their built-in advantage on paper and the Bears erased their disadvantage with better 365-day preparation.
Recruiting matters, but for most programs outside of the truly nationally elite, it matters less than player development. It makes having the best of the best in the way of coaching/strength and conditioning incredibly important.
When comparing the Longhorns to their competition in the Big 12, the numbers make it clear that what the program is getting from its coaches and developmental staff isn't good enough.
No. 2 - Just to be clear ...
There have been a lot of questions about the dynamics in the Texas locker room and what might be happening behind the scenes that has led to the collapses on the field this season.
It's really as simple as this - Herman's older players seem all-in with the direction of the program, while it seems like the younger players in the program, all of whom were recruited by Herman, seem to have more question marks. When I say "younger players," I'm mostly talking about the players from the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes.
For some players, there are questions about the relationships with assistant coaches. For some others, playing time is an issue. For some others, it's just a general level of unhappiness.
Herman mentioned coming out of the bye week a couple of weeks ago that he had taken steps to address some of these issues by meeting with individual players on a one-on-one basis during the bye week, but there's likely more work to do on this front.
No. 3 - Five Players I'm Still Thinking About 24 Hours Later ...
Parker Braun - It just hasn't come together for Braun this season like I thought it might. Don't get me wrong, he's still been better than any alternative that the Longhorns would have otherwise had at left guard this season, but he hasn't been the force I thought he'd be. Like every single starting lineman on the roster, regression seems to have occurred this season and perhaps never more than on Saturday against the Bears. The fact that he was escorted back to the locker room in the fourth quarter, even though he was not officially thrown out of the game, speaks volumes about several things.
Chris Brown - The junior might actually be the best performing defensive back on the roster. When he's on the field and healthy, the Longhorns are better for it.
Sam Ehlinger - In terms of efficiency rating, Saturday was the third-worst game of his career and only one of three times he's ever posted a sub-100 rating. Ehlinger has had two of his worst performances in a three-year career in the last four games. Since the start of October, he's posted sub 123 ratings in four of seven games. That's incredibly poor.
Jalen Green - I'm not sure there was a single time in his match-up against Denzel Mims when he didn't either hold or commit pass interference. There might have been times when it wasn't called, but there was always some tugging and pulling on the jersey down the field at a bare minimum.
Juwan Mitchell - Where the hell was he and why didn't he play? Maybe we'll get a definitive answer from Tom Herman on Monday.
No. 4 - The key to Texas basketball this season ...
When Jericho Sims is fully engaged and on, the Longhorns can be more than a handful against really good teams.
When Jericho Sims isn't fully engaged and on, the Longhorns likely won't be more than a handful against really good teams.
For the season, he's averaging 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, but he's capable of being a double-double type of guy.
No. 5 - One Texas volleyball thought from the weekend ...
After handling Kansas in four sets at home over the weekend, the Longhorns have only one remaining Big 12 match left in the regular-season before the Texas heads into post-season play.
Considering the Longhorns will likely share the regular-season Big 12 crown with Baylor, it feels like these two could have one more match-up left between them this season.
If it happens, it will likely occur in the Final Four or in the national championship game.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Utah
7. Oklahoma
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan
10. Oregon
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) For one damn time, the University of Texas needs to flex some damn financial muscle and make the kind of dynamic, big-boy hire that guarantees success. That's not what the Tom Herman hire was. That's not what the Charlie Strong hire was. Those were the best hires available because Texas subscribed to the theory of not being the force that lifts coaching salaries in the sport to the kind of levels that cause academic people to cry out in vain. I don't think Texas will ever be the force I think it should be, but it's what I believe it should aim to be.
(Sell) If the Longhorns moved on from Herman right now, it would mean that Texas will have set more than $30 million on fire in dead coaching money in a shade over 1,000 days. That's just not going to happen, not unless the people who are responsible for these types of decisions completely change their moral codes.
(Sell) I think he's coaching next year somewhere else. Besides, I believe if the Texas admin flinched over "red flag" concerns with Herman, it would fall over itself when vetting Meyer.
(Buy) In a heartbeat.
(Buy) I believe they'll reach out, but LSU will match any offer he receives, which probably makes landing him a pipe-dream.
(Buy) The powers at be will give Herman whatever he needs in terms of money for his coaching staff and in support staff, which nets them at least an 8. Scoring higher than a 9 or 10 would likely mean doing things without a moral compass and that's not UT.
(Sell) There's not a single reason to give the school the benefit of the doubt on this topic.
(Buy) Did the lack of a response from his head-butting Malcolm Roach at midfield yesterday before the game not give that away? Humpty Dumpty needs to be put back together again.
(Sell) Inside Bellmont, they are praying Herman saves them from the extension gaffe it made in the spring.
(Sell) Texas won't lose that many 2020 commitments in my opinion, but the program averages double-digit numbers of attrition every year, so you might want to double your transfer numbers.
(Buy) Yup.
(Sell) The answer to that question is Charlie Strong.
(Sell) I've been watching Texas football closely for more than three decades, went to the University as a student and don't plan on leaving the Austin area anytime soon. My habits ain't changing.
(Sell) Did you just out Sally Brown's handle?
(Buy) It's not rocket surgery.
(Buy) His history suggests he'll bunker down with guys he knows and has relationships with. My money is on Larry Fedora being the offensive coordinator next season and under normal circumstances, that would represent one hell of a hire. I just wonder if this program doesn't need someone that's not already here with fingerprints on this year's failure.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Oklahoma is just begging to be dethroned as Big 12 champions and I don't think anyone has the spine to pull it off. The Sooners are going to win a fifth straight by default.
... Mike Gundy has very quietly had a very good year.
... Ed Orgeron said this about beating Arkansas on Saturday: "There wasn't going to be a celebration for beating Arkansas, they haven't beaten anyone in a long time." Yikes.
... Call me crazy, but I think Michigan gives Ohio State one hell of a game this weekend.
... Kevin Sumlin is exactly who we thought he was.
... Surprise! The 6-5 Dallas Cowboys struggled to make the key play in any phase of the game against a team the quality of the Patriots. Nothing but fool's gold in silver and blue.
... Frank Gore is officially No. 3 on the NFL's all-time rushing list. That's a real thing.
... Speaking of things that actually happened...
... Luka Doncic has my vote for early season NBA MVP. And he's still just a baby.
... Before they both retire, Patrick Beverly and Russell Westbrook have to be allowed to fight each other in an NBA game without punishment from the commish.
... It wasn't pretty, but it still counts. Liverpool 2 Crystal Palace 1. YNWA.
No. 9 - Two Quick Movie Reviews...
Ford Vs. Ferrari (B)
I've seen this movie called the Dad Movie of the Year and that's probably fair. More than the star-studded acting, which sometimes had me asking questions about the casting of the movie, the thing that stands out from the pack in this movie are all of the bad-ass cars. I'm not even a big car guy and I found myself salivating over some of the greatest cars ever made. That the story stays mostly very true to the facts made me very happy. It was just a well-executed story. Definitely worth the trip.
It's a Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (A)
It's easily one of my favorite movies of the year, as I walked out of the theater wanting to be more like Fred Rogers in every aspect of my life, while also wanting to watch as many of the greatest hits of Mister Rogers on Youtube as I could find. Tom Hanks absolutely nails his role of our childhood hero and the story was incredibly moving. I can see this being a movie that I watch on cable a lot once it makes it there.
No. 10 – And Finally ...
I'm not sure anything touched my heart this week more than this video. Get your tissues ready.
