Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Ewers to run it back in 2024?)

[RLong68]

The feel-good story of the 2024 season feels a lot less feel-good all of a sudden due to the torn ACL that has ended his season and likely lead him back to Austin for the 2024 season.

I think too many here are jumping emotionally to that in the immediacy of the moment. Will be interesting over the next 6 weeks, after calm has prevailed, to hear what medical professionals and scouts say about the surgery and the recovery. He didn’t get his leg cut off. He tore an ACL. A most common injury.

In a lot of ways it’s the lower body version of Tommy John. 40+ years ago it was a terrifying scenario for an athlete. Today it’s believed you come back stronger than ever. Teams that were all over Brooks might simply push him back a round or so. Or hell, they may not. But the reality is RBs come back from it likely breathe. Not sure I can even name a young RB in say, the last 10-15 years, who tore an ACL and it marked a significant downturn in their career. It’s not a torn Achilles. Guess we’ll see

 

[blair17]

Going into the SEC with a veteran QB will be a good thing for us, but if Sark rolls with Ewers, has a mediocre season, and loses Arch, folks will be out for blood.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Manning family seems to fine with Arch sitting for 1 to 2 years. Big learning curve for a small HS to college. If is he best option, then he’ll play next year.

 

[Ketchum]

I think too many here are jumping emotionally to that in the immediacy of the moment. Will be interesting over the next 6 weeks, after calm has prevailed, to hear what medical professionals and scouts say about the surgery and the recovery. He didn’t get his leg cut off. He tore an ACL. A most common injury.

In a lot of ways it’s the lower body version of Tommy John. 40+ years ago it was a terrifying scenario for an athlete. Today it’s believed you come back stronger than ever. Teams that were all over Brooks might simply push him back a round or so. Or hell, they may not. But the reality is RBs come back from it likely breathe. Not sure I can even name a young RB in say, the last 10-15 years, who tore an ACL and it marked a significant downturn in their career. It’s not a torn Achilles. Guess we’ll see

What is the point that you're making? That it's not really a big deal?

 

[RLong68]

What is the point that you're making? That it's not really a big deal?

I thought the point was clear. Yes, the circumstances suck. It very possibly cost him draft position. But there are clearly examples where RBs with the same injury, and in McGahee’s case much worse, who were still drafted high in the months following. I only suggested once the noise quiets down then NFL teams may very well determine they aren’t significantly deterred by the injury assuming the surgery went well and recovery going on schedule

 

[Outkast22]

“Injuries have played a role in the inconsistencies of the last month. No injury in college football hurts a team more than one to its starting quarterback. You can't have a conversation about the last month without including the quarterback position.”

This implies when the starting QB was healthy the team wasn’t inconsistent. Which is just misinformation. Ewers is better than Murphy, now. But those two games Murphy started didn’t created very similar frustrations with this team. Ewers is not some world beater. He’s pretty good. And save it with QBR or passer rating mumbo-jumbo. The actual game play and situational football is what matters.

 

[TheAngryHammer]

Arch is not going anywhere

I’m just tired of sucking and want years of dominance.

Making my assumption based on fickle kids and their handlers, none of which the Manning family has demonstrated.

 

[BrobaFapp]

MM is as good as gone. Although I think he stays in Big 12, but heads back toward the West somewhere.

 

[BurntO1]

I am happy to be 9-1 and I give Sark a ton of credit because without him, we would not have the talent on the field to be competitive in the first place. With that said, we could easily be 6-4. We have been both lucky and good to be 9-1. Giving up big leads, or barely hanging on, is hardly new to this year. I can't imagine Sark doesn't see the trend and question how he may want to change his approach to close out teams when up big. You really think he doesn't even consider he is part of the problem on his list of areas for improvement?

 

[Ketchum]

I thought the point was clear. Yes, the circumstances suck. It very possibly cost him draft position. But there are clearly examples where RBs with the same injury, and in McGahee’s case much worse, who were still drafted high in the months following. I only suggested once the noise quiets down then NFL teams may very well determine they aren’t significantly deterred by the injury assuming the surgery went well and recovery going on schedule

There's no way this is an immediate loss of millions in the next 12 months.

Maybe he gets that money back over time, maybe not.

a. It absolutely impacts his draft position. In no world, does it not.
b. It's no sure thing that he's 100-percent back by the time next season starts.

 

[Ketchum]

“Injuries have played a role in the inconsistencies of the last month. No injury in college football hurts a team more than one to its starting quarterback. You can't have a conversation about the last month without including the quarterback position.”

This implies when the starting QB was healthy the team wasn’t inconsistent.

No, it doesn't.

 

[Ketchum]

I am happy to be 9-1 and I give Sark a ton of credit because without him, we would not have the talent on the field to be competitive in the first place. With that said, we could easily be 6-4. We have been both lucky and good to be 9-1. Giving up big leads, or barely hanging on, is hardly new to this year. I can't imagine Sark doesn't see the trend and question how he may want to change his approach to close out teams when up big. You really think he doesn't even consider he is part of the problem on his list of areas for improvement?

No, I don't.

 

[Uncut Degenerate]

What is the point that you're making? That it's not really a big deal?

I tend to side with @RLong68 here. Surgery and recovery have come a long way based on what I know and have seen in my field. The questions remains is whether scouts want to see how he recovers first as I’m sure he will seek feedback.

 

[tlcdownunder2]

I think too many here are jumping emotionally to that in the immediacy of the moment

This is a very emotional moment, yes. Are you suggesting it should be otherwise?

 

[HookemChargers]

The Brooks injury will not be an aid to keep guys on the fence.

DId the coaches think that Brooks was coming back? What does that do to recruiting?
Who does Ewers returning effect more MM or Manning?
Who does this class end with Brooks and a couple of transfers?

 

[Ketchum]

I tend to side with @RLong68 here. Surgery and recovery have come a long way based on what I know and have seen in my field. The questions remains is whether scouts want to see how he recovers first as I’m sure he will seek feedback.

He's coming back from what I'm hearing.

 

[Uncut Degenerate]

He's coming back from what I'm hearing.

I think he has to, no one is gonna risk a high round pick.

 

[Ketchum]

DId the coaches think that Brooks was coming back? What does that do to recruiting?
Who does Ewers returning effect more MM or Manning?
Who does this class end with Brooks and a couple of transfers?

a. Everyone kind of knew he would go.
b. No.
c. Yes, Maalik.
d. Black, a couple of slips and Portals.

 

[burntoblood]

No, I don't.

He thinks it's execution.

 

[A-10HORN]

I called QE coming back before the season even started and got laughed at.

Guess we will see how it plays out. He’s made excellent strides this year but still needs one more IMO to be a top 3-5 QB. He will be after next year no question.

 

[Ketchum]

I called QE coming back before the season even started and got laughed at.

Guess we will see how it plays out. He’s made excellent strides this year but still needs one more IMO to be a top 3-5 QB. He will be after next year no question.

No question?

 

[RLong68]

There's no way this is an immediate loss of millions in the next 12 months.

Maybe he gets that money back over time, maybe not.

a. It absolutely impacts his draft position. In no world, does it not.
b. It's no sure thing that he's 100-percent back by the time next season starts.

I clearly acknowledge the short term impact.

Regarding next season, teams will obviously consider that possibly. And my guess is if teams like the recovery and like Brooks long term then that first year salary, particularly at a lower scale may be seen as well worth it

 

[RLong68]

This is a very emotional moment, yes. Are you suggesting it should be otherwise?

No. just suggesting some obvious points. NFL teams most likely aren’t caught up in the emotions. And secondly, once emotion wears off for some then some rational thinking returns.

 

[Ketchum]

I clearly acknowledge the short term impact.

Regarding next season, teams will obviously consider that possibly. And my guess is if teams like the recovery and like Brooks long term then that first year salary, particularly at a lower scale may be seen as well worth it

There's a very strong sense he's not going pro.

What round do you think he would go in (best case) if he entered?

 

[curtis7mills]

Is our defensive secondary struggling because it has some injuries that guys are battling through? Scheme where they try to bend but don’t break by keeping everything in front of them? Can it be we don’t have the horses back there yet? We hear how loaded with talent we are, but doesn’t seem like our backend lives up to that diagnosis.

 

[A-10HORN]

No question?

No question that he’s top 3-5 next year. His trajectory has been steady at Texas under Sark and it will continue. Even if we dont have the weapons at WR next year that he currently has. The O Line we have coming back helps a ton.

Edit: obviously barring a major injury. That’s the only thing I see getting in the way

 

[tlcdownunder2]

And secondly, once emotion wears off for some then some rational thinking returns.

Fair enough. Ideally people can do both simultaneously.

 

[RLong68]

There's a very strong sense he's not going pro.

What round do you think he would go in (best case) if he entered?

Strong sense from whom?

At this point, given the very little details we know, I think it’s quite reasonable he could still be a Day 2 pick. When Willis McGahee was laying on the Fiesta Bowl turf nearly 22 years ago in what round did you project him going in less than 4 months later? When Todd Gurley tore his ACL nearly 10 years ago in what round did you project him going in 5 months later

 

[Rockhornfan]

Spot on analysis. All those things are true — and maddening, at times. My only comments on your movie list is I haven’t seen any of them other than Oppenheimer, but that’s probably the best film I’ve seen in the last 5 years.

 

[mh48]

As others have said MM will be in the portal if Quinn does come back.

and you know this how???????

 

[HornsOverTexas]

Brooks has been through a lot. His last game at Hallettsville was an absolute heart breaker.

Hope he has a speedy recovery

 

[Ketchum]

Is our defensive secondary struggling because it has some injuries that guys are battling through? Scheme where they try to bend but don’t break by keeping everything in front of them? Can it be we don’t have the horses back there yet? We hear how loaded with talent we are, but doesn’t seem like our backend lives up to that diagnosis.

a. Not IMO
b. Passiveness in coverage hasn't helped.
c. yes

 

[Ketchum]

No question that he’s top 3-5 next year. His trajectory has been steady at Texas under Sark and it will continue. Even if we dont have the weapons at WR next year that he currently has. The O Line we have coming back helps a ton.

Edit: obviously barring a major injury. That’s the only thing I see getting in the way

What if he doesn't take the next step?

 

[DeadassAF]

My wife ate 2 helpings of meatloaf tonight and I’m Quaken in my boots about going to bed tonight 😷

 

[Ketchum]

Strong sense from whom?

At this point, given the very little details we know, I think it’s quite reasonable he could still be a Day 2 pick. When Willis McGahee was laying on the Fiesta Bowl turf nearly 22 years ago in what round did you project him going in less than 4 months later? When Todd Gurley tore his ACL nearly 10 years ago in what round did you project him going in 5 months later

a. From people with knowledge of the situation.
b. Day two for a running back coming off an injury that might not let him make a first year impact?
c. The running back value in the draft has changed dramatically in the last decade.

 

[Ketchum]

Spot on analysis. All those things are true — and maddening, at times. My only comments on your movie list is I haven’t seen any of them other than Oppenheimer, but that’s probably the best film I’ve seen in the last 5 years.

It gets better every time you see it.