Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend: Full steam ahead towards 2022
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I mean the low of this season is so bad that 7-5 could be a three game improvement.
That is not the case.
The NCAA has not provided that waiver for the 85-man yet as it relates to the 2022 season.
In my humble opinion Hermin had less upside and less downside, so maybe we don't lose the KU game and we find a way to hold on in one of the OU/OSU/BU games.
But his staff wasn't as good as this staff. I'm convinced Sark ultimately isn't a better pound for pound coach that Herman, but I still believe this staff is much better and hopefully has the ability to recruit and develop line talent.
I've been very vocal about saying success begins and ends with OL and DL regardless of skill position and we're seeing it.
So here's my B/S @Ketchum : If you took an average SEC OL and DL and put them in burnt orange, we'd have gone at least 8-4 even if you removed Bijan and Xavier from this team.
But his staff wasn't as good as this staff. I'm convinced Sark ultimately isn't a better pound for pound coach that Herman, but I still believe this staff is much better and hopefully has the ability to recruit and develop line talent.
I've been very vocal about saying success begins and ends with OL and DL regardless of skill position and we're seeing it.
So here's my B/S @Ketchum : If you took an average SEC OL and DL and put them in burnt orange, we'd have gone at least 8-4 even if you removed Bijan and Xavier from this team.
Okay. I’m not sure you listed the returning players as a qualification, but I’m also not trying to be overly critical.
I sure wish we could legit disagree with those groupings. Since I can’t, I’ll just say it’s depressing…
The second section of the column talks about the players who are seniors who might come back.
Unless a "sure thing" coach is interested and available, our hand is kind of forced IMO
I hear you, but if they struggle to a .500ish record next year, there will be thoughts of hiring someone new just to change the narrative and spring hope moving into the SEC. 6-6 or 7-5 just means you weren’t horrible. That’s not the bar for Texas no matter the year.
Ketch, not sure why you're surprised that Mike Gundy has OSU at 10-1, at this stage of the season. The dude, mullet and all, does something similar almost every year. Talk about a guy turning lemons into lemonade. Is he really that good, or has the Texas situation become a monster of its own creation that nobody would be able to turn around?
And you can count college coaching "sure things" on one hand, with several of the fingers missing.
I'm with you - please don't take my comment as acceptance of ~.500 football being the bar.
As indicated by Ketch via multiple posts and personas, 4-8 is a bottom 5 outcome in the 100+ year history of the program, which makes it difficult to believe this coaching staff will win here when many others likely inherited similar situations and somehow avoided filling silly straws with shit.
My comment was more just my gut on how we'll have to play the hand we're frustratingly forced to play at the moment, but other variables (recruiting imploding, a "sure thing" coming available) could obviously change the bar for W/L in '22.
My blind guess given all that is Sark is retained at 7-5, but likely gone (maybe unless we land Arch, etc in the '23 class) at 6-6.
Your Deniro list is pretty solid. But the order is way out of whack. Casino and Raging Bull are too low. Mean Streets too high.
@McGuapo - looking at the schedule next year, I think indicators on which way this is trending could come early.
For example, if we're not 4-1 heading into OU (means we beat both UTSA & KSU), a loss to OU could be the death blow.
Alternatively, beating OU even if we're coming out of Dallas 4-2 could potentially be a "wait & see" signal.
It's just hard to fathom how differently we all feel about the direction of this program since halftime in Dallas. I'm not sure there's a precedent, within our program's history or anywhere else.
For example, if we're not 4-1 heading into OU (means we beat both UTSA & KSU), a loss to OU could be the death blow.
Alternatively, beating OU even if we're coming out of Dallas 4-2 could potentially be a "wait & see" signal.
It's just hard to fathom how differently we all feel about the direction of this program since halftime in Dallas. I'm not sure there's a precedent, within our program's history or anywhere else.
it pains me to raise this. Who started the rumor that the major circle of donors is demanding Sark give guys minutes based on race. Is this true? If it is not true, is the lie affecting the clubhouse. As Greg Popovich has said race issues are the elephant in the room. We saw it big time in the more than a flap with the Eyes of Texas. Is race an issue in the Texas locker room trying to be swept under the rug?
I saw the first black player at Texas and then those followed. 1960/70 is not that far in the past. i sincerely hope this is some jerk piling on a train wreck.
I saw the first black player at Texas and then those followed. 1960/70 is not that far in the past. i sincerely hope this is some jerk piling on a train wreck.
Yes it will be about recruiting and what not too. If we land Ewers for next year and/or Arch or something and we have some recruiting success and a reason for optimism at QB, then it would help save him.
Ketch, Sark has an undeniably mediocre record as a HC. What in the world would make anyone think he can be better than he has already proven to be? He came to Texas and touted this as a talented squad. Also came with the reputation of being a quarterback guru. He has the entire team looking like they are absolutely lost in a fog. The quarterback situation has regressed as the season went on, pretty undeniable. I’m just wondering what the hell is he good for, and why did anyone in their right mind believe that his mediocre record wasn’t a precursor of things to come? Personally, I put the overwhelMing majority of today’s problem at UT square at the feet of that God forsaken loser, Steve Patterson. Ever since he stepped on the 40 we have been in a downhill spiral. That said, Sarkisian is certainly not the guy to right that wrong.
Re-watch the speaking in tongues scene at the end while his boat is sinking. Great acting.
Just like with Tom…my question is…would they make a 2nd run at Urban? Who else out there would move the needle?
So what would be your approach to fix this offensive line? In the next 10 months how much bigger, stronger, faster and more skilled can the players currently on the roster get? How many legit starters can we get from the portal? Is Angilau done and if not can he take it to the next level? Same with Jones? Can Majors lose 10% of his body fat and gain 20% more power and speed? What are the buttons that need to be pushed on some of the younger players to get the most out of their talent? Isn't that what the coaches are paid to do? Recruit self motivated players or motivate the hell out of the ones you have until you get players on campus who have that inner fire.
That elevator pitch is enough to get me to give it a go.
kinda depressing how much of a JAG he has been for 2 decades...re-watched THE SCORE about a month ago, solid heist flick.
.
I hope Overshown opts out before the K-State game. It's just not worth the risk.
I blame Patterson for damn near everything. Can you name a legitimate bigger mistake in the history of Longhorn sports? Ever since he took office, everything went straight downhill. I’m just hoping it finally hit rock bottom
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@Ketchum do you still really believe sark inherited a talented team after going thru the 5 groups? (And after now seeing the "talent" level of Casey/Hudson?)
"One thing I've been trying to do is really kind of categorize our players - group one, group two (or) group three from a 'Are they doing these things that we are asking of them and how consistently are they doing that?’ Clearly, you want every player to be in group one ... all-in and committed to what we're doing. We've got a fair amount of guys on our team that I believe are there and give us all that they have, every day that we go on or off the field. We've probably got a fair amount of guys in group two that are still trying to figure it out and we've got a few guys in group three."
Steve Sarkisian last week on his football team
*****
For the better part of the last week, I've found myself wondering about Steve Sarkisian's three groups of players and the make-up of them.
How many 1s does he have? How many does he believe he needs? How many did Alabama have? How valuable are 2s? What's the balance between play and attitude in determining who lands in which group? Is three groups enough?
Is the list like the Colonel's seven secret spices?
Part of me contemplated breaking the current roster into three groups with an eye on the 2022 season, but throwing dudes into group three sounds like a potential problem when you consider that Sarkisian seemed to describe the guys in the final group as problem-children.
Yet, conceptually I liked the idea of auditing the roster into very specific categories enough that I decided to create my own set of player groupings.
Group 1 - Players good enough to start for anyone in the country
Group 2 - Above-average players
Group 3 - Solid squad members
Group 4 - Young players (anyone that is listed as a first- or second-year player)
Group 5 - Third- and fourth-year players not in groups 1, 2 or 3
(Note: As much as possible, I tried to eliminate subjective decisions, which means that I leaned on @Alex Dunlap's statistical gradings this season to serve as our compass as much as possible.)
Let's see how things shook out.
Group 1 - (2) RB Bijan Robinson and WR Xavier Worthy
Group 2 - (4) RB Roschon Johnson, RB Keilan Robinson, RB Jonathan Brooks and WR Jordan Whittington
Group 3: (15) QB Casey Thompson, WR Marcus Washington, TE Jared Wiley, OL Christian Jones, OL Junior Angilau, OL Jake Majors, DT Keondre Coburn, DT Moro Ojomo, DT T'Vondre Sweat, DT Alfred Collins, DT Byron Murphy, LB Luke Brockermeyer, LB Ovie Oghoufo, LB Jaylan Ford and DB Jerrin Thompson
Group 4: (31) QB Hudson Card, QB Charles Wright, WR Kelvontay Dixon, WR Dajon Harrison, WR Troy Omeire, WR Jaden Alexis, WR Casey Cain, TE Braydon Liebrock, TE Juan Davis, TE Gunnar Helm, TE J'Tavian Sanders, OL Andrej Karic, OL Jaylen Garth, OL Logan Parr, OL Max Merrill, OL Hayden Conner, DE David Abiara, DE DJ Harris, DE Barryn Sorrell, DE Jordan Thomas, DE Prince Dorbah, DT Vernon Broughton, DT Sawyer Goram-Welch, LB Mo Blackwell, LB Jaden Hullaby, DB Jahdae Barron, DB Kitan Crawford, DB Ishmael Ibraheem, DB Jamier Johnson, DB JD Coffey and P Isaac Pearson
Group 5 - (13) WR Kai Money, WR Al'Vonte Woodard, OL Rafiti Ghirmai, OL Isaiah Hookfin, OL Tyler Johnson, DT Myron Warren, LB Ayodele Adeoye, LB Jett Bush, LB Devin Richardson, LB David Gbenda, LB Marcus Tillman, DB Chris Adimora, DB Marques Caldwell,
Hoo-boy, let's talk about the things that stand out …
1. The Longhorns have only two players that can play for anyone and six that register in mind as truly plus-players as of this very minute. Of the six, three are back-ups to Bijan Robinson.
2. 50.8% of the returning roster is currently a first- or second-year player, which means they'll be second- or third-year players in 2022. Thirty-one of the 33 are outside of the top three groups, which means that this staff is going to need to develop this group in a significant manner to climb out of the current mess.
3. The players in group 5 aren't currently performing at high levels and they aren't young. It's that simple. I don't mean to be mean.
No. 2 - Going back to the well ...
The Longhorns are currently scheduled to turn over 19 departing seniors from the scholarship roster this weekend, but there is a small group of players from that group that Sarkisian and his staff might recruit back to the roster for another season because of the flexibility allowed by the extra year from last season's COVID exceptions.
Of the 12 non-super seniors with an extra year of eligibility remaining, the players that are likely the most interesting to Sarkisian are linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, defensive back Anthony Cook, cornerback D'Shawn Jamison, cornerback Josh Thompson, safety BJ Foster and kicker/punter Cameron Dicker.
Given how little returning top-end talent the Longhorns are projected to return, you can make a case that the Longhorns might be better off returning all six players, even if it makes getting 33 new players on the roster a little harder to pull off.
A quick overview of all six.
Overshown: Until I hear otherwise, I'm expecting Overshown to turn pro following this season. Of the six, his NFL stock is the highest and there's been a sense for a while that this will be his last season.
Foster: Anything could still happen, but the sense I've had talking to people behind the scenes is that the expectation is he'll make the attempted jump to the NFL in 2022. With nearly 30 career starts under his belt as a college player, there's a sense that he'll be ready to move on.
Cook: There's some hope that Cook will return for another season. With his playing time decreasing in recent weeks and the end of this season, the person I spoke with wasn't quite sure how to read his situation.
Jamison: One NFL agent I spoke with this week believes that Jamison is more likely to turn pro in the coming weeks than return. "He's an undersized guy with chops as a return man on special teams. He's probably a day three player in the Draft, whether he comes back or not."
Thompson: It'll be interesting to see how his season-ending fibula injury will impact his thinking. After five years in Austin, the thinking all season has been that Thompson would leave for the NFL, but a case can be made that he needs to return for another season, depending on the severity of the injury.
Dicker: Feels like a coin-flip at this point.
No. 3 - Just a reminder ...
Here's an updated look at the Texas Scholarship Board...
View attachment 1774
No. 4 - About the narratives from this season ...
"Ultimately, my mindset is I’d love to get another crack at these guys hopefully in December."
Steve Sarkisian following UT's loss to Oklahoma in October.
*****
Five games later and the entire 2021 season having gone down the drain, we know how the movie ends (Spoiler: Texas didn't get another crack at Oklahoma in December). The whole thing imploded. Kansas happened. Very little from this whole 2021 ordeal has emerged with a positive attached to it.
Beginning with the last two weeks, less focus has been on the horrendous regression that has taken place over the season and much more attention is being placed on attrition percentages and the unfair roster components with which Sarkisian has been forced to deal.
You'll forgive me if I reject the notion that the collapse from this season was unavoidable.
Sarkisian certainly didn't seem to believe that his Longhorns were sitting on a house of cards when his team was 4-2 at the midway point in the season. No one screamed that a coaching miracle had occurred when the Longhorns took a huge lead over the Sooners, only to give it all up in the final 15 minutes of the game. No one was suggesting at the time that the Longhorns had been lucky to lead Oklahoma in the manner that they did.
No, the narrative around the program was merely about closing the deal in the final 15 minutes.
When the Longhorns threatened to blow Oklahoma State out the next week before a Casey Thompson pick-six changed everything, no one was suggesting that the Longhorns were lucky to be leading that game going into the fourth quarter.
Again, it was about closing the deal. The same thing literally happened against Baylor.
Take lead. Blow lead. Take lead. Blow lead. Take lead. Blow lead.
The Baylor loss was the back-breaker that opened the door for the train to go completely off the tracks and we've been moving the goal posts for the last three weeks in an effort to keep up with the losses.
Whatever we say about this season, let's at least be honest about it.
No. 5 - Get the Ball to Xavier on Saturday ...
Without a bowl game to lean on, Texas freshman Xavier Worthy is 84 yards shy of 1,000 for the season.
He needs one touchdown to tie the all-time school record for touchdown receptions in a season.
Just funnel him the ball. He's the biggest reason to tune in this week.
No. 6 - Around the 40 Acres ...
... No offense to anyone overreacting to basketball games in November, but I've seen Texas play well in November in the last decade and it rarely means jack squat unless there's a major injury. Both the men's and women's teams are working out the kinks and that's what most of the next 5-6 weeks are about. Hold the rope.
... It'll help on future nights if the Longhorns can manage to keep Marcus Carr's off-nights shooting the basketball away from the other guards having an off-night shooting the ball. Things are going to get a little ragged when everyone is missing shots.
... That was a rough loss on Sunday for Vic Schaefer and Co. in Knoxville. It's a good thing November basketball only somewhat matters or that one would really, really, really sting.
... Since dropping a match to Baylor a few weeks ago, the Longhorns volleyball team has won 12 straight sets. All the Longhorns need to do this week is take a pair from the Red Raiders in Lubbock to take home an undisputed regular season conference title. Warning: The difference in the standings between Texas and Baylor is a BU loss to Tech very early in conference play.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) This was always a rebuild when you consider the foundational issues up front on both sides of the ball. This team was always going to be multiple seasons away from a championship. That being said, we've gone from rebuild to seemingly tear it down. It's only become that in the last month with the coaches allowing the wheels to come off the season.
(Sell) I'm expecting Pete Kwiatkowski returning for a second year. Firing him means that the players weren't the problem and the players being the narrative is what is being pushed from the administration on down right now.
(Sell) There aren't that many players that Texas has that it would probably really worry about. I don't believe any of the top 5-7 players in the program are leaving.
(Sell) I'll take the under on that number by just a few spots.
(Buy) Of course, it's a buy.
(Sell) Texas would be going to a bowl game. It might have been the Texas Bowl, but Texas would be going to a bowl game.
(Buy) I'm not sure there's a better plan than that.
(Sell) The class will hold strong.
(Sell) I just don't see it happening.
(Buy) I don't know about much better, but I think he's a better player than Casey Thompson, so maybe so.
(Buy) Texas can't go into the SEC with zero momentum. Simple as that.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... I can't believe Mike Gundy has the team that Texas was close to blowing the doors off at 10-1 and knocking on the door of the college playoff. Coaching matters.
... No matter what happens from here on out, Dave Aranda has done just an amazing job in Waco this year. He'd be my guy if I was LSU or USC.
... I'm not sure I know which direction Bedlam goes in this week, but if Oklahoma loses, its streak of dominance in the Big 12 ends. Go Cowboys, right?
... UTSA is a rich man's Louisiana.
... Ohio State is going to destroy Michigan, huh?
... I really don't know what to make of Dallas getting its ass kicked in Kansas City. I';m just going to live in denial and hope that this team can get healthy.
... Where did that Houston Texans performance come from? Congrats to the Texans fans for having themselves a day on Sunday.
... I'm not sure I can figure the Bills or the Colts out.
... Thank God, I didn't play against Jonathan Taylor in fantasy this week.
... My weekends are so much better when Liverpool plays well. Soooooo much better.
... Consider me really mad at Watford.
... Imagine playing 36 matches, just to get yourself into a wildcard playoff game and seeing your season end like this.
No. 9 - Top 10 Robert De Niro movioes ...
How have I never done a Bobby De Niro list?
Well, this should be fun. Let's get right to it.
Note: I have not seen Midnight Run or Bang The Drum Slowly.
10. Once Upon a Time in America
9. Casino
8. The Untouchables
7. Raging Bull
6. Mean Streets
5. Taxi Driver
4. Heat
3. Goodfellas
2. The Deer Hunter
1. The Godfather II
No. 10 - And Finally...
It's a little early, but in the spirit of Alex's children, make sure you and reach out to your loved ones this week and tell them you love them.
You never know who might just need to hear your voice. The worst thing that can happen is that someone you love will be reminded of it.
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