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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend: Full steam ahead towards 2022

@Ketchum

How does the staff feel about Parr, Garth and Connor next year? Connor seemed to be closer than the other two based on reports.
Do you get the sense that PK will be able to hire his staff?
a. Too early to say. Really need Flood to work some magic with Conner. Not sure how optimistic I am about the other two.

b. Not a great feel for part two.
 
I appreciate your discussion in the thread.
Couple of observations, this is a Larry MacDuff moment on PK. He clearly hasn’t worked out. One thing that Sark needs to understand is the Texas fan base is more engaged than most. There are at least 4 major websites that analyse the team giving most fans informed opinions. Couple that with the amount of HS coach’s and former players, and he can’t hide bad schemes, and poor player development. Everyone saw the constant deployments of two high safeties on short yardage, couple that with defensive player regression, and if Sark thinks the status quo on Defense gets him a year 3, he’s mistaken. He needs a Muschamp personality to take charge of that side of the ball. Finally, a coordinator’s inability to communicate what a position coach needs to be synced with the scheme is a huge red flag. All of the excuses and problems with the defense are just obfuscation of the underlying problem with the scheme and leader.
Except Mac Duff had never been a DC before. PK has a killer resume and he's had a killer (in a different way) year. Not sure they are remotely the same things.
 
I played against Jonathan Taylor this week..... I lost....
 
Worst case scenario…Sark is let go next year…will entering the SEC appeal to more coaches than if we had stayed in the Big 12?? Like an Urban Meyer type???
well, it's much harder to win. I think it'll be a case by case deal. It'll be huge for SEC for life type coaches. It'll be scary for others.
 
Does Herman get any blame for these guys not being developed or is this entirely on Sark?
depends on the player/s.

I think most concerning is the number of players who played better under Herman and have seen regression this season.
 
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The '22 class will be impacted in that it will close with a whimper instead of a bang given how the season has gone. But yes, the '23 class is quickly steaming towards mediocrity.

I think Texas is going to have to go out of state for success in 2023. The state of Texas will potentially be a bloodbath and they have to see it coming. and not live in Pretend-Land.
 
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I think Texas is going to have to go out of state for success in 2023. The state of Texas will potentially be a bloodbath and they have to see it coming. and not live in Pretend-Land.

Yep. I fully expect us to get raked over the coals in-state for '23.
 
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Except Mac Duff had never been a DC before. PK has a killer resume and he's had a killer (in a different way) year. Not sure they are remotely the same things.

PK was successful in Chris Peterson's infrastructure. It's why coordinator success doesn't always translate. The head guy matters. If Peterson was allowing players to be late for practices and meetings, PK likely doesn't have the same success. At this point, a DC change is pointless - Will Muschamp could walk thru that door and it likely wouldn't matter. Sark's best bet is to get the PK's Washington band back together - at least you'll have coaches who understand what in god's name they are trying to do on defense and there would be some level of alignment.
 
@Ketchum do we go after Jimmy Lake? Also which qb’s would you pursue in the portal top 4? I feel like Ewers, Tulane QB, Miles Brennan are all upgrades to what we have.
 
Glamour programs tend to not have open paths particularly at QB. It’s how they remain glamourous. Stroud, right now, easily projects to be gone after next season. Ewers stays patient and he is in prime position to battle to replace him in spring ,23

Or he could step in here next Spring. OSU is stacked at QB.
 
@Ketchum do we go after Jimmy Lake? Also which qb’s would you pursue in the portal top 4? I feel like Ewers, Tulane QB, Miles Brennan are all upgrades to what we have.
Can Texas really afford to invite a dude that now has a reputation for physically handling players at a time when the locker room doesn't really trust the coaches? How does that work optically?
 
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Or he could step in here next Spring. OSU is stacked at QB.
I think I'd rather take my chances at OSU if I'm the No.1 quarterback in the country.

BTW...this is... *gulp*.... the same recruiting pitch that A&M made against Texas in the glory days of the 2000s.
 
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- Amen to the changing narrative of this season. Hearing an administrator saying there's no talent on the team to excuse the Kansas loss won't help unify a fractured locker room.

From your perspective, why have the coaches lost the locker room? Is it a byproduct of the coaching change, the brutal second half collapses, a general lack of trust in the coaches, a leadership issue, or is there something else driving a wedge between the kids and coaches? Or all of the above?
 
ee0e3a40b744e2eebc3b4d949eaa9055x.jpg

"One thing I've been trying to do is really kind of categorize our players - group one, group two (or) group three from a 'Are they doing these things that we are asking of them and how consistently are they doing that?’ Clearly, you want every player to be in group one ... all-in and committed to what we're doing. We've got a fair amount of guys on our team that I believe are there and give us all that they have, every day that we go on or off the field. We've probably got a fair amount of guys in group two that are still trying to figure it out and we've got a few guys in group three."

Steve Sarkisian last week on his football team


*****

For the better part of the last week, I've found myself wondering about Steve Sarkisian's three groups of players and the make-up of them.

How many 1s does he have? How many does he believe he needs? How many did Alabama have? How valuable are 2s? What's the balance between play and attitude in determining who lands in which group? Is three groups enough?

Is the list like the Colonel's seven secret spices?

Part of me contemplated breaking the current roster into three groups with an eye on the 2022 season, but throwing dudes into group three sounds like a potential problem when you consider that Sarkisian seemed to describe the guys in the final group as problem-children.

Yet, conceptually I liked the idea of auditing the roster into very specific categories enough that I decided to create my own set of player groupings.

Group 1 - Players good enough to start for anyone in the country

Group 2 - Above-average players

Group 3 - Solid squad members

Group 4 - Young players (anyone that is listed as a first- or second-year player)

Group 5 - Third- and fourth-year players not in groups 1, 2 or 3

(Note: As much as possible, I tried to eliminate subjective decisions, which means that I leaned on @Alex Dunlap's statistical gradings this season to serve as our compass as much as possible.)

Let's see how things shook out.

Group 1 - (2) RB Bijan Robinson and WR Xavier Worthy

Group 2 - (4) RB Roschon Johnson, RB Keilan Robinson, RB Jonathan Brooks and WR Jordan Whittington

Group 3: (15) QB Casey Thompson, WR Marcus Washington, TE Jared Wiley, OL Christian Jones, OL Junior Angilau, OL Jake Majors, DT Keondre Coburn, DT Moro Ojomo, DT T'Vondre Sweat, DT Alfred Collins, DT Byron Murphy, LB Luke Brockermeyer, LB Ovie Oghoufo, LB Jaylan Ford and DB Jerrin Thompson

Group 4: (31) QB Hudson Card, QB Charles Wright, WR Kelvontay Dixon, WR Dajon Harrison, WR Troy Omeire, WR Jaden Alexis, WR Casey Cain, TE Braydon Liebrock, TE Juan Davis, TE Gunnar Helm, TE J'Tavian Sanders, OL Andrej Karic, OL Jaylen Garth, OL Logan Parr, OL Max Merrill, OL Hayden Conner, DE David Abiara, DE DJ Harris, DE Barryn Sorrell, DE Jordan Thomas, DE Prince Dorbah, DT Vernon Broughton, DT Sawyer Goram-Welch, LB Mo Blackwell, LB Jaden Hullaby, DB Jahdae Barron, DB Kitan Crawford, DB Ishmael Ibraheem, DB Jamier Johnson, DB JD Coffey and P Isaac Pearson

Group 5 - (13) WR Kai Money, WR Al'Vonte Woodard, OL Rafiti Ghirmai, OL Isaiah Hookfin, OL Tyler Johnson, DT Myron Warren, LB Ayodele Adeoye, LB Jett Bush, LB Devin Richardson, LB David Gbenda, LB Marcus Tillman, DB Chris Adimora, DB Marques Caldwell,

Hoo-boy, let's talk about the things that stand out …

1. The Longhorns have only two players that can play for anyone and six that register in mind as truly plus-players as of this very minute. Of the six, three are back-ups to Bijan Robinson.

2. 50.8% of the returning roster is currently a first- or second-year player, which means they'll be second- or third-year players in 2022. Thirty-one of the 33 are outside of the top three groups, which means that this staff is going to need to develop this group in a significant manner to climb out of the current mess.

3. The players in group 5 aren't currently performing at high levels and they aren't young. It's that simple. I don't mean to be mean.

No. 2 - Going back to the well ...

The Longhorns are currently scheduled to turn over 19 departing seniors from the scholarship roster this weekend, but there is a small group of players from that group that Sarkisian and his staff might recruit back to the roster for another season because of the flexibility allowed by the extra year from last season's COVID exceptions.

Of the 12 non-super seniors with an extra year of eligibility remaining, the players that are likely the most interesting to Sarkisian are linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, defensive back Anthony Cook, cornerback D'Shawn Jamison, cornerback Josh Thompson, safety BJ Foster and kicker/punter Cameron Dicker.

Given how little returning top-end talent the Longhorns are projected to return, you can make a case that the Longhorns might be better off returning all six players, even if it makes getting 33 new players on the roster a little harder to pull off.

A quick overview of all six.

Overshown: Until I hear otherwise, I'm expecting Overshown to turn pro following this season. Of the six, his NFL stock is the highest and there's been a sense for a while that this will be his last season.

Foster: Anything could still happen, but the sense I've had talking to people behind the scenes is that the expectation is he'll make the attempted jump to the NFL in 2022. With nearly 30 career starts under his belt as a college player, there's a sense that he'll be ready to move on.

Cook: There's some hope that Cook will return for another season. With his playing time decreasing in recent weeks and the end of this season, the person I spoke with wasn't quite sure how to read his situation.

Jamison: One NFL agent I spoke with this week believes that Jamison is more likely to turn pro in the coming weeks than return. "He's an undersized guy with chops as a return man on special teams. He's probably a day three player in the Draft, whether he comes back or not."

Thompson: It'll be interesting to see how his season-ending fibula injury will impact his thinking. After five years in Austin, the thinking all season has been that Thompson would leave for the NFL, but a case can be made that he needs to return for another season, depending on the severity of the injury.

Dicker: Feels like a coin-flip at this point.

No. 3 - Just a reminder ...

Here's an updated look at the Texas Scholarship Board...

View attachment 1774

No. 4 - About the narratives from this season ...

"Ultimately, my mindset is I’d love to get another crack at these guys hopefully in December."

Steve Sarkisian following UT's loss to Oklahoma in October.

*****

Five games later and the entire 2021 season having gone down the drain, we know how the movie ends (Spoiler: Texas didn't get another crack at Oklahoma in December). The whole thing imploded. Kansas happened. Very little from this whole 2021 ordeal has emerged with a positive attached to it.

Beginning with the last two weeks, less focus has been on the horrendous regression that has taken place over the season and much more attention is being placed on attrition percentages and the unfair roster components with which Sarkisian has been forced to deal.

You'll forgive me if I reject the notion that the collapse from this season was unavoidable.

Sarkisian certainly didn't seem to believe that his Longhorns were sitting on a house of cards when his team was 4-2 at the midway point in the season. No one screamed that a coaching miracle had occurred when the Longhorns took a huge lead over the Sooners, only to give it all up in the final 15 minutes of the game. No one was suggesting at the time that the Longhorns had been lucky to lead Oklahoma in the manner that they did.

No, the narrative around the program was merely about closing the deal in the final 15 minutes.

When the Longhorns threatened to blow Oklahoma State out the next week before a Casey Thompson pick-six changed everything, no one was suggesting that the Longhorns were lucky to be leading that game going into the fourth quarter.

Again, it was about closing the deal. The same thing literally happened against Baylor.

Take lead. Blow lead. Take lead. Blow lead. Take lead. Blow lead.

The Baylor loss was the back-breaker that opened the door for the train to go completely off the tracks and we've been moving the goal posts for the last three weeks in an effort to keep up with the losses.

Whatever we say about this season, let's at least be honest about it.

No. 5 - Get the Ball to Xavier on Saturday ...

Without a bowl game to lean on, Texas freshman Xavier Worthy is 84 yards shy of 1,000 for the season.

He needs one touchdown to tie the all-time school record for touchdown receptions in a season.

Just funnel him the ball. He's the biggest reason to tune in this week.

No. 6 - Around the 40 Acres ...

... No offense to anyone overreacting to basketball games in November, but I've seen Texas play well in November in the last decade and it rarely means jack squat unless there's a major injury. Both the men's and women's teams are working out the kinks and that's what most of the next 5-6 weeks are about. Hold the rope.

... It'll help on future nights if the Longhorns can manage to keep Marcus Carr's off-nights shooting the basketball away from the other guards having an off-night shooting the ball. Things are going to get a little ragged when everyone is missing shots.

... That was a rough loss on Sunday for Vic Schaefer and Co. in Knoxville. It's a good thing November basketball only somewhat matters or that one would really, really, really sting.

... Since dropping a match to Baylor a few weeks ago, the Longhorns volleyball team has won 12 straight sets. All the Longhorns need to do this week is take a pair from the Red Raiders in Lubbock to take home an undisputed regular season conference title. Warning: The difference in the standings between Texas and Baylor is a BU loss to Tech very early in conference play.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …

BUY-SELL.gif




(Buy) This was always a rebuild when you consider the foundational issues up front on both sides of the ball. This team was always going to be multiple seasons away from a championship. That being said, we've gone from rebuild to seemingly tear it down. It's only become that in the last month with the coaches allowing the wheels to come off the season.



(Sell) I'm expecting Pete Kwiatkowski returning for a second year. Firing him means that the players weren't the problem and the players being the narrative is what is being pushed from the administration on down right now.



(Sell) There aren't that many players that Texas has that it would probably really worry about. I don't believe any of the top 5-7 players in the program are leaving.



(Sell) I'll take the under on that number by just a few spots.



(Buy) Of course, it's a buy.



(Sell) Texas would be going to a bowl game. It might have been the Texas Bowl, but Texas would be going to a bowl game.



(Buy) I'm not sure there's a better plan than that.



(Sell) The class will hold strong.



(Sell) I just don't see it happening.



(Buy) I don't know about much better, but I think he's a better player than Casey Thompson, so maybe so.



(Buy) Texas can't go into the SEC with zero momentum. Simple as that.

No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...

... I can't believe Mike Gundy has the team that Texas was close to blowing the doors off at 10-1 and knocking on the door of the college playoff. Coaching matters.

... No matter what happens from here on out, Dave Aranda has done just an amazing job in Waco this year. He'd be my guy if I was LSU or USC.

... I'm not sure I know which direction Bedlam goes in this week, but if Oklahoma loses, its streak of dominance in the Big 12 ends. Go Cowboys, right?

... UTSA is a rich man's Louisiana.

... Ohio State is going to destroy Michigan, huh?

... I really don't know what to make of Dallas getting its ass kicked in Kansas City. I';m just going to live in denial and hope that this team can get healthy.

... Where did that Houston Texans performance come from? Congrats to the Texans fans for having themselves a day on Sunday.

... I'm not sure I can figure the Bills or the Colts out.

... Thank God, I didn't play against Jonathan Taylor in fantasy this week.

... My weekends are so much better when Liverpool plays well. Soooooo much better.

... Consider me really mad at Watford.

... Imagine playing 36 matches, just to get yourself into a wildcard playoff game and seeing your season end like this.


No. 9 - Top 10 Robert De Niro movioes ...

How have I never done a Bobby De Niro list?

Well, this should be fun. Let's get right to it.

Note: I have not seen Midnight Run or Bang The Drum Slowly.

10. Once Upon a Time in America
9. Casino
8. The Untouchables
7. Raging Bull
6. Mean Streets
5. Taxi Driver
4. Heat
3. Goodfellas
2. The Deer Hunter
1. The Godfather II

No. 10 - And Finally...

It's a little early, but in the spirit of Alex's children, make sure you and reach out to your loved ones this week and tell them you love them.

You never know who might just need to hear your voice. The worst thing that can happen is that someone you love will be reminded of it.

Eli Ricks is in the portal go get him...
 
Or he could step in here next Spring. OSU is stacked at QB.

He’s part of that stack. At the of the day exercising just a little more patience at a SIGNIFICANTLY better program than Texas is the much more prudent thing to do. The WORST that could happen by doing that is he doesn’t win the job to succeed Stroud in 18 months and he transfers somewhere else with immediate eligibility AND 3 years left to play.
 
... Where did that Houston Texans performance come from? Congrats to the Texans fans for having themselves a day on Sunday.


I guess I'm a Texans fan (it is hard these days due to issues in the Front Office not the bad play) and all yesterday really did is possibly screw up a draft pick. Although not sure there is a true #1 that is a difference maker this year (at least not at QB).
 
Can Texas really afford to invite a dude that now has a reputation for physically handling players at a time when the locker room doesn't really trust the coaches? How does that work optically?
I mean if we are concerned about optics why are we ever considering Urban….I get your point though. I’m just sick of losing so we need to do something on defensive side in particular
 
Except Mac Duff had never been a DC before. PK has a killer resume and he's had a killer (in a different way) year. Not sure they are remotely the same things.
I was thinking that when I made the comparison it might have been off bc of the MacDuff ST pedigree. But kudos to Mack for realizing it so soon. Greg Robinson showed what you do when you have fundamental scheme problems or problems with player execution. Simply all the concepts, and go back to fundamentals. I was real surprised PK never made similar adjustments.
 
Looking at that scholarship board is depressing…..I’ve bought fully into the “Sark is not the answer” thinking. But that ‘ship board if full of folks I didn’t even remember being here. Going to need more than 33 players.
 
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I'm saying that he's at a top 5 program and surrounded by elite talent where he is. I wouldn't leave that to come to this version of Texas.
Does he have the patience to wait another year at Ohio st and then battle for a starting job? I think that is the key as he pretty much knows he would walk in and start for TX next year.
 
- Amen to the changing narrative of this season. Hearing an administrator saying there's no talent on the team to excuse the Kansas loss won't help unify a fractured locker room.

- It is time for Overshown to get healthy and focus on the NFL draft. I think Foster, Jamison, and Dicker are day three picks.

- You never know how much you miss the Texas Bowl until it's gone.

- The 2022 class is intact. The big issue will be the 2023 class. I am not sure how you convince elite players to join a 4-8 or 5-7 team when they have so many other appealing paths.

- Mike Gundy is living proof that coaching matters. He is one of the most underrated coaches in the country.

- You and I are in that group of teams fighting for the sixth seed. I feel like my team will get my hopes up and let me down in the final week.
The funny thing about Gundy is OSU fans bitch about him all the time.:) My wife and step sons all graduated from there. They do not know how lucky they are!:)
 
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