Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Hey, Kirk... this is Tom... I gotta scoop for you...)

[UTwiz]

I should've said "a leader" maybe not the absolute leader.

I think it's typical locker room chemistry that the team looks to the QB, and especially the guy who grinded 12 games with them.

Right or not, Shane being raised in a professional household I think gives him a lot of cred in a locker room.

I get it that it's Herman job to integrate a new QB in July to the team to buy in by September. I'm just in the camp that Shane is the better "quarterback" for the future after seeing them both in live action.

I also find it interesting that Tom took Kyle Allen at UH and he's the exact same style QB as Bue. I don't fully believe Herman needs a MZ style QB to run his system effectively.

I don't think Allen and Buechele have the same profiles. But more importantly, Herman recruited Allen because he had zero QB on the UH roster capable of playing at even an AAC conference level.

Here is what we know:

Tom Herman's QBs average over 200+ carries a year, most on designed runs and option-keeps.

Last year, Buechele ran it 97 times, with only a few coming on designed runs and keeps (that number also includes the 32 sacks allowed last year).

I predict we see more than 65 true QB carries this fall. The only thing we don't know for sure is how those carries are distributed.

 

[rynetx08]

However, look at what Herman did with Gred Ward Jr. at UH. Ward was virtually a slot receiver, and Herman morphed him into a stud a QB

A slot receiver with a QBR over 141 in all 4 years at UH?

Before TH, Ward Jr. took over for O'Korn and started the last 8 games of 2014.

His 2014 production pre-TH was right on par with his last season at UH. There was no miraculous transformation from a slot receiver to stellar QB in 2015.

Ward was already a highly productive QB before TH...67% passer with 145+ QBR

2014 (8 starts): 177 for 263, 2,010 yards, 7.6 y/a, 12 TD, 7 INT, 141.2 QBR
2016 (12 starts): 319 for 469, 3,557 yards, 7.6 y/a, 22 TD, 13 INT, 141.6 QBR

This is no slight to TH, but Zaire would arrive nowhere near the accurate passer Ward Jr. already was when TH took over at UH.

Big difference between Zaire's career 59.2% and Ward's 67% before TH arrived.

Boo will make a big jump with experience and his accuracy would fend off Zaire. There's no doubt if May 2015 Ward Jr. was here he'd dust both of them.

 

[UTwiz]

A slot receiver with a QBR over 141 in all 4 years at UH?

Before TH, Ward Jr. took over for O'Korn and started the last 8 games of 2014.

His 2014 production pre-TH was right on par with his last season at UH. There was no miraculous transformation from a slot receiver to stellar QB in 2015.

Ward was already a highly productive QB before TH...67% passer with 145+ QBR

2014 (8 starts): 177 for 263, 2,010 yards, 7.6 y/a, 12 TD, 7 INT, 141.2 QBR
2016 (12 starts): 319 for 469, 3,557 yards, 7.6 y/a, 22 TD, 13 INT, 141.6 QBR

This is no slight to TH, but Zaire would arrive nowhere near the accurate passer Ward Jr. already was when TH took over at UH.

Big difference between Zaire's career 59.2% and Ward's 67% before TH arrived.

Boo will make a big jump with experience and his accuracy would fend off Zaire. There's no doubt if May 2015 Ward Jr. was here he'd dust both of them.

Sorry, but this is not accurate. At either the micro or macro level. Ward was a poor passer before Herman, and was still below average after his final game. Herman's offense and Ward's legs covered a LOT of gaps in his game.

 

[rynetx08]

Sorry, but this is not accurate. At either the micro or macro level. Ward was a poor passer before Herman

Not quite. I'm not saying he was an elite passer but his pre-TH numbers were far from resembling a poor passer. You may be eluding to mechanics, but regardless the productivity was that of a respectable passer...

2013-14 Ward Jr.: 196-292 (67.1%), 7.9 y/a, 2,320 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
2016 S.Buechele: 236-391 (60.4%), 7.4 y/a, 2.958 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT

A completion % and yards per attempt surpassing Shane in their first year starting is poor passing? TD/INT ratio of 1.85 slightly trailing Boo's 1.91, which can easily be explained by increased rushing TD's from the position.

Passing numbers don't lie when the sample size is nearly 300 attempts. That's even before adding Ward Jr.'s much greater rushing production.

 

[glennking]

I havent read the entire thread, so maybe these things were addressed, but

1) D'Andre Christmas-Giles just had surgery recently for a hernia. If he looked a little slow in the earlier practices, that may be the reason. Let's not forget that last year in the early practices we were hearing a lot of great things about him. Seems like a guy who could step up and partially solve the void.

2) I honestly don't get why Zaire would come here or why we would tell him he's got a great shot at winning the starting job. What about his prior history makes us think he would be a better QB than Buechele? I'm all for having an experienced backup to Buechele, but everything I have read is that he doesn't want to go somewhere where he's not gonna be the starter. Surely Herman wouldn't tell him he would be the front-runner to start if he came here?

 

[Onetex]

I think Tom just wants, at the least, an experienced back-up to Shane. If Malik can somehow beat Shane out for the job by Sept, ok, then he's earned it.

I don't think that Tom is willing to put all his eggs in the basket of hoping that the Buechele we saw in the first two games of last year (and not what we saw in most of the last 10 games of the year) are what emerges from fall camp. More particularly, I think there are more than minor concerns that what we saw in the latter part of the year wasn't solely or maybe even primarily due to injury. Rather, it had more to do with defensive coordinators taking away the few things Shane was really good at (e.g., deep sideline fade) and exposing multiple limitations/weaknesses. He was just a true freshman, so there's good reason to think that Shane will overcome those limitations (hopefully as soon as this year). It would be foolish, though, to put all your eggs in that basket at this point of Shane's career.

Shane is going to need to improve over what we saw the latter part of last year in order to beat out Zaire (if he comes here). If he does so improve (as many on this board seem to be certain of), then we'll be in great shape (and Zaire provides an experienced backup). If not, Zaire's your starter and we'll be glad we have him

 

[AgaveHorn]

Throwing the facility keys in Town Lake is pretty funny, good write up Ketch.

 

[UTwiz]

Not quite. I'm not saying he was an elite passer but his pre-TH numbers were far from resembling a poor passer. You may be eluding to mechanics, but regardless the productivity was that of a respectable passer...

2013-14 Ward Jr.: 196-292 (67.1%), 7.9 y/a, 2,320 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
2016 S.Buechele: 236-391 (60.4%), 7.4 y/a, 2.958 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT

A completion % and yards per attempt surpassing Shane in their first year starting is poor passing? TD/INT ratio of 1.85 slightly trailing Boo's 1.91, which can easily be explained by increased rushing TD's from the position.

Passing numbers don't lie when the sample size is nearly 300 attempts. That's even before adding Ward Jr.'s much greater rushing production.

Yeah, Ward was a bad passer in a dynamic offense. His mechanics were dreadful. However, he had great pocket presence and timing. I loved him as a player. It's just that many of his passes were cringe-worthy. Still a boss, though.

 

[hampton17]

I may get crucified for this, but Malik Zaire could be a Heisman contender under Herman.

I do not see a new staff with a transfer qb that has very little time to see his new offense winning more than 8 games next season. I also think moving to a conference setting will be harder for Zaire.

 

[TheTR]

The team just wants to win. If Zaire helps them do that, the team will be more than fine....

Yep but he better be balls to the wall better and winning soundly, because then team second guesses coaching staff and moral and chemistry go to sh$&!

 

[Ketchum]

I don't think it's click bait but the whole story has been overblown. Even anwar admits Herman hasn't talked to him in months. The writing seems to be on the wall.

Outside of here it's not even a story. Another Texas outlet reported last week if he doesn't go to Florida as expected he won't be at Texas either.

It's not a story on other sites because they haven't had access to Zaire.

This is a national story and we've been the runaway leaders in covering it.

 

[Ketchum]

I'll never argue against his skill. As a transfer candidate I wouldn't want West Ham to spend a huge transfer fee on a player who was only healthy for 22 of the last 121 Liverpool games (according to NBC Sports commentators). I doubt he will ever be healthy for a full season again and already we're loaded with injury riddled #9's. Once guys get caught in that type of injury cycle it's extremely rare they get out of it. He's a luxury backup for a rich team, not a centerpiece for a mid-table team.

And congrats on top 4. Well deserved. Now go sign some defenders and a keeper!

I have a feeling Liverpool stays pat at goalkeeper. I'm prepared for it.

 

[Ketchum]

I think Tom just wants, at the least, an experienced back-up to Shane. If Malik can somehow beat Shane out for the job by Sept, ok, then he's earned it.

I think you overstate just how high Herman is on Buechele's current development. JMO based on a number of factors.

 

[Ketchum]

Common ground my friend. Common ground.

SB will make him look foolish. Although, in typical Ketch fashion, he has left himself just a bit of wiggle room to change sides should he be wrong.

quote one thing you disagree with me on with SB.

 

[Ketchum]

Actually pretty stupid to say aggy "never" will play for an SEC title. Pretty sure Nick Saban won't live forever, after 'bama, what else is there in the SEC West? Even aggy can luck into a good enough hire to win the West at some point.

Never.

 

[Ketchum]

Georgia reaped the benefit with grad transfer Maurice Smith from Alabama just last season so I doubt they're trying to block themselves from future opportunities over Malik Zaire. I repeat, MALIK ZAIRE. I highly doubt he'll be keeping Kirby Smart up late nights.

I'd be surprised if the rule isn't changed. This is a classic cut off your nose to spite your face scenario. Then again it's the SEC so nothing would surprise me. I just don't think Malik Zaire is spooking any coaches into backing off that (or any) rule.

Spooking really isn't the right word.

I don't have to be afraid of you to still want to block any avenue I can from you getting better.

The rule change doesn't impact all schools, just the ones that couldn't live up to the rules. If I'm playing by the rules, the incentive of changing the rules for a school that didn't is pretty minimal.

 

[Ketchum]

It's been said we haven't contacted Malik in a month or so.

No, Herman hasn't spoken with him. Tim Beck has been in communication.

 

[Ketchum]

I should've said "a leader" maybe not the absolute leader.

I think it's typical locker room chemistry that the team looks to the QB, and especially the guy who grinded 12 games with them.

Right or not, Shane being raised in a professional household I think gives him a lot of cred in a locker room.

I get it that it's Herman job to integrate a new QB in July to the team to buy in by September. I'm just in the camp that Shane is the better "quarterback" for the future after seeing them both in live action.

I also find it interesting that Tom took Kyle Allen at UH and he's the exact same style QB as Bue. I don't fully believe Herman needs a MZ style QB to run his system effectively.

The area that you're talking about is the area his coaches believe needs the most improvement.

 

[Ketchum]

I don't think that Tom is willing to put all his eggs in the basket of hoping that the Buechele we saw in the first two games of last year (and not what we saw in most of the last 10 games of the year) are what emerges from fall camp. More particularly, I think there are more than minor concerns that what we saw in the latter part of the year wasn't solely or maybe even primarily due to injury. Rather, it had more to do with defensive coordinators taking away the few things Shane was really good at (e.g., deep sideline fade) and exposing multiple limitations/weaknesses. He was just a true freshman, so there's good reason to think that Shane will overcome those limitations (hopefully as soon as this year). It would be foolish, though, to put all your eggs in that basket at this point of Shane's career.

Shane is going to need to improve over what we saw the latter part of last year in order to beat out Zaire (if he comes here). If he does so improve (as many on this board seem to be certain of), then we'll be in great shape (and Zaire provides an experienced backup). If not, Zaire's your starter and we'll be glad we have him

that simple

 

[jshorn]

quote one thing you disagree with me on with SB.

Too lazy to quote, but feel free to disagree if I don't accurately state your position.

You think SB was a below average QB last year even taking into account that he was a true freshman.

You aren't convinced SB will be anything more than an average QB going forward.

Correct?

 

[Ketchum]

Too lazy to quote, but feel free to disagree if I don't accurately state your position.

You think SB was a below average QB last year even taking into account that he was a true freshman.

You aren't convinced SB will be anything more than an average QB going forward.

Correct?

"and it's not even close"

a. In the home stretch last season, Buechele was mostly average, with some occasional below/above average mixed in. On the whole, his season was solid, given the circumstances, but the last 10 games of the season give reason for pause.

b. I think Buechele has Heisman Finalist upside as a player.

c. I don't know if he's ready to access that Heisman Finalist upside just yet. I think a redshirt would have been ideal for him and he might need another 12-15 months before he puts it all together.

You aren't lazy, you're just don't know what you're talking about..

 

[jshorn]

"and it's not even close"

a. In the home stretch last season, Buechele was mostly average, with some occasional below/above average mixed in. On the whole, his season was solid, given the circumstances, but the last 10 games of the season give reason for pause.

b. I think Buechele has Heisman Finalist upside as a player.

c. I don't know if he's ready to access that Heisman Finalist upside just yet. I think a redshirt would have been ideal for him and he might need another 12-15 months before he puts it all together.

You aren't lazy, you're just don't know what you're talking about..

You seem a little worked up. My post is based upon reading a number of comments you have made. You're job is to convey your opinions. Maybe you haven't been very clear regarding SB. The post above is quite clear.

 

[TopSirloin]

You seem a little worked up. My post is based upon reading a number of comments you have made. You're job is to convey your opinions. Maybe you haven't been very clear regarding SB. The post above is quite clear.

He has Become as worked up as ever lately. It's annoying.

 

[Ketchum]

You seem a little worked up. My post is based upon reading a number of comments you have made. You're job is to convey your opinions. Maybe you haven't been very clear regarding SB. The post above is quite clear.

I've literally repeated the same things over and over again for five months.

I can't hold your hand. I can't make you want to take the time to actually find something I've written in a display of something specific.

 

[Ketchum]

He has Become as worked up as ever lately. It's annoying.

am I worked up or did I just point out that he was talking out of his backside earlier in this thread?

 

[jshorn]

I've literally repeated the same things over and over again for five months.

I can't hold your hand. I can't make you want to take the time to actually find something I've written in a display of something specific.

You seem entirely too worked up over this.

 

[Ketchum]

You seem entirely too worked up over this.

I suppose that's your version of saying checkmate. It's ok.

 

[jshorn]

I suppose that's your version of saying checkmate. It's ok.

It's checkmate as to what you have said or haven't said? OK.

 

[Ketchum]

It's checkmate as to what you have said or haven't said? OK.

 

[JinSOTEX]

It's not a story on other sites because they haven't had access to Zaire.

This is a national story and we've been the runaway leaders in covering it.

Well it's been covered on at least one other but as of Friday their sources don't have texas in the top 2. Time will tell. Has it really been a national story though? I thought you were even suggesting sec people aren't talking about it and they need to know what Florida is trying to do under the radar ?

 

[UTwiz]

It's not a story on other sites because they haven't had access to Zaire.

This is a national story and we've been the runaway leaders in covering it.

This is interesting post, on multiple levels.

 

[drunk randoke]

@Ketchum vs. @jshorn

 

[Baguette]

I think you overstate just how high Herman is on Buechele's current development. JMO based on a number of factors.

Obviously he's seeing something in Malik that many of us don't.

 

[Ketchum]

Well it's been covered on at least one other but as of Friday their sources don't have texas in the top 2. Time will tell. Has it really been a national story though? I thought you were even suggesting sec people aren't talking about it and they need to know what Florida is trying to do under the radar ?

Yes. Anwar's reporting has been picked up nationally.

 

[Ketchum]

Obviously he's seeing something in Malik that many of us don't.

Both Herman and Beck go further back with Zaire than they do with Buechele, ironically enough.