Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (I finally did it...)

[hookem62]

Great job on the out of state recruiting analysis. My main takeaway is I didn’t realize the transfer rate has averaged 50+% regardless of in state our out of state. That’s amazing. What will that number be in 5 years as the new portal rules really start to take effect on the numbers?

 

[hookem62]

(Buy) The quarterback battle for the first-team slot is going to be incredibly competitive, but I'm in. Same with Banks.

B/S: If Ewers is the first team SEC QB Texas wins the SEC.

 

[Ketchum]

So if I have this right, only go out of state for high four stars or five stars. In state low four stars and below are no more likely to play but are less likely to transfer than OOS. Which is interesting since I would suspect the lower star in state talent is easier to attract but not really going to sustain the program at the desired level

Yes, that area of talent already is more likely to fail than succeed, but even more so if from out of state.

 

[Ketchum]

You missed the point.
The point was every HC and their staff could have very different results. Maybe, maybe not!
Sark could have very different results because of better or worse evaluation, emphasis on character, NIL, winning record, etc.
Those data points analyzed by staff would be more meaningful to me and as you pointed out we don’t have all the data available on Sark and his staff necessary to do that evaluation on our current staff.

I didn't miss any point. How much different do you believe a staff can have? Because I can show you what's already happened in 2021-2023 with out of state recruiting and there's no reason to think the data changes much based on the early showings of Sark's recruiting.

 

[Ketchum]

Exactly, seems like a big missed opportunity over the years..

Most definitely was.

 

[Ketchum]

The sample sizes are not large for the out of state players prior to Sark (7 blue chip prospects). Nothing else really matters here

It’s good work in that it continues to confirm what I think we knew regarding 3 stars to mid 4 stars and also confirms transfers are a bigger issue with out of state players (not surprising). I imagine as the sample size grows the 5 stars out of state will line up with same metrics as those in state largely

Yes, the super blue chip data is very similar and probably does equate similarly with in-state numbers.

 

[Ketchum]

Good read as usual for TFTW. Sad about Carl Weathers. Unfortunately if you grew up in the late 70s and early 80s many childhood favorites are starting to pass away.

I would be curious and you may have already done this but how many 5 stars has Sark been involved with as HC (all players) and as OC for USC, Alabama (offensive players). He such a great recruiter that I would guess quite a few.

Not as many as you'd think because his USC tenure ended so quickly.

 

[Ketchum]

Great job on the out of state recruiting analysis. My main takeaway is I didn’t realize the transfer rate has averaged 50+% regardless of in state our out of state. That’s amazing. What will that number be in 5 years as the new portal rules really start to take effect on the numbers?

Higher... for sure.

 

[Ketchum]

B/S: If Ewers is the first team SEC QB Texas wins the SEC.

Buy

 

[Armadillo Slim]

His role aside, SemiTough was about the worst book adaptation I've ever seen. Poor casting, too many departures from the comedy of Dan Jenkins. It hasn't been near long enough since I last sat through that mess.

Correct. Baja Oklahoma movie was even worse.

Baja Oklahoma (the book) was Jenkins at his best.

That bad?

yep, pretty bad.

generally speaking, the producers and directors of movie adaptations of Jenkin’s books did not understand Jenkins humor at all, and/or could not translate it to film, or find actors who could properly reflect the characters. Baja Oklahoma was especially egregious and cringe worthy.

 

[Ketchum]

Correct. Baja Oklahoma movie was even worse.

Baja Oklahoma (the book) was Jenkins at his best.

yep, pretty bad.

generally speaking, the producers and directors of movie adaptations of Jenkin’s books did not understand Jenkins humor at all, and/or could not translate it to film, or find actors who could properly reflect the characters. Baja Oklahoma was especially egregious and cringe worthy.

Ranking those movies highly suggests that somebody didn’t read the books.

Now I HAVE to see it again.

 

[Armadillo Slim]

Now I HAVE to see it again.

Read Baja again before you watch it.

generally speaking your movie reviews are great and right on point but I was so disappointed after I watched Baja Oklahoma Because I loved the book so much.

 

[NativeTex]

Read Baja again before you watch it.

generally speaking your movie reviews are great and right on point but I was so disappointed after I watched Baja Oklahoma Because I loved the book so much.

That says it all.

 

[cbmatticola24]

I would have Chubbs at 4 behind Rocky III and before Rocky I, but the list is otherwise solid. I do lean more comedy in my taste of movies, so Happy Gilmore is near the top of my sports movies list with Major League, Tin Cup, and Caddyshack. They are all movies that I will stop and watch when they are on.

 

[Ketchum]

I would have Chubbs at 4 behind Rocky III and before Rocky I, but the list is otherwise solid. I do lean more comedy in my taste of movies, so Happy Gilmore is near the top of my sports movies list with Major League, Tin Cup, and Caddyshack. They are all movies that I will stop and watch when they are on.

Totally get it.

I wonder if it ends growing stronger as the performance people remember over time.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

1. Rocky II

The best acting that Weathers ever did in the Rocky series. His conflicted and tortured version of Apollo is the key to the entire movie.

Throughout the series, he did a fantastic job of getting everyone interested in his character. Such a great job, we cared about the Creed spinoffs. He was a tremendous actor.

 

[Anwar Richardson]

Making the playoffs is what matters in 2024.

The Cowboys make the playoffs. That should be the bare minimum. Winning those games is what should matter the most.

 

[Ketchum]

The Cowboys make the playoffs.

Apples and carrots.

The Cowboys have been making the playoffs for decades and not doing anything with it.

This is the first year in a new conference and with a pretty significant increase in schedule strength, making the playoffs means that Texas went at least 9-3 and survived the first season with flying colors.

 

[Ketchum]

Throughout the series, he did a fantastic job of getting everyone interested in his character. Such a great job, we cared about the Creed spinoffs. He was a tremendous actor.

It makes you wonder why he didn't have a career with more great roles.

 

[RLong68]

Same if it's a 50/30 split, either way. It's really hard to imagine a more extreme split than 50-30, barring injuries.

At least to this point that sorta depends who’s getting the 50 & who’s getting the 30. Blue’s got no business getting less than 200 carries this season. That’s not even 15/game over say, a 14 game season. Blue has shown legit NFL ability at RB pretty much consistently. Baxter really has not consistently.

 

[Travis Galey]

Considering he's having a better last 12 months than most of us outside of @Travis Galey's wife, I'll easily give him the benefit of the doubt.

It's her world, we're just living in it.

 

[WhatAboutEggs]

@Ketchum forgive me if I missed it in the OP, but have you done research on the number of Texas kids in the top XX (pick your number) that go OOS vs play for an in-state school? My gut tells me that it's more than ever before, and not just because Texas has struggled lately.

 

[YodelingHorn]

I suppose the saving grace in all of this is that quarterback will probably never be an issue as long as Steve Sarkisian is the head coach and if we're being honest, there's a good chance that Arch Manning's career will take the Longhorns into the 2026 season at the very least.

That being said, I might be Mr. Worrier around the Orangebloods universe, and it is important to note that Sarkisian doesn't seem to give a damn.

 

[A-10HORN]

Whether we get a portal DT or not will not impact our record as much as you seem to think. People are waaay overemphasizing its importance given what the rest of the defense will look like.

No I don’t agree with that based on how I’m looking at it. You saw how one sided we were on defense last year. Great against the run, weak against the pass (I realize there were a few factors at play there). Take those two DTs away and it’s a completely different season last year so that position can be very impactful.

Fast forward to next year and without anyone proven up the middle plus the loss of Ford at LB, we are looking at it being more difficult to compete for it all. And that’s the lens I’m looking at this with.

Realize I’m comparing this team to really 3-4 teams next year. Does not getting a difference maker in the portal mean we lose to Florida or Mississippi St? No.

Does it mean we will have a tough time with UGA or Ohio St (2 of the teams I think we compete with for a natty)? I think it does.

 

[ARD438]

3. Rocky III

Apollo and Rocky hugging in the ocean. Might need to re-think having this No. 3

Needs to be higher. Rocky doesn't beat Clubber Lang and get back on top without Apollo.

"There is no tomorrow""There is no tomorrow"

 

[Let em Hang]

Loved Carl Weathers. He just made you want to watch what he was doing in a movie.

 

[boernefan]

I didn't miss any point. How much different do you believe a staff can have? Because I can show you what's already happened in 2021-2023 with out of state recruiting and there's no reason to think the data changes much based on the early showings of Sark's recruiting.

Yes, you missed my point.
That is determining the affect a HC and his staff can have on the recruitment of players, both in state and out of state.
It’s ok, I am not going to argue with you.
Have a good day.

 

[Ketchum]

At least to this point that sorta depends who’s getting the 50 & who’s getting the 30. Blue’s got no business getting less than 200 carries this season. That’s not even 15/game over say, a 14 game season. Blue has shown legit NFL ability at RB pretty much consistently. Baxter really has not consistently.

I agree.

 

[Ketchum]

It's her world, we're just living in it.

and I'm ok with that.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum forgive me if I missed it in the OP, but have you done research on the number of Texas kids in the top XX (pick your number) that go OOS vs play for an in-state school? My gut tells me that it's more than ever before, and not just because Texas has struggled lately.

How far back we talking?