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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (I finally did it...)

Confirms my belief that you never start shit with a giraffe. Good stuff.

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Much of the focus of this week's column centers around a deep dig that I've been wanting to do for years and finally decided to tackle ... a historical breakdown of UT's out-of-state recruiting during the modern era of recruiting (2002-present).

Just how risky is going out of state? How successful has it been? Do out-of-state prospects transfer more than in-state prospects? Do they perform better?

Let's start out with some basics in the conversation. The focus on these numbers is from 2002-2020, primarily because not all of the 2021 recruits have finished their careers, which means that I'd only be able to enter partial 2021 numbers and that just didn't feel right.

During the time frame of 2002-2020, the Longhorns signed 65 out-of-state prospects. Amazingly, only two from a nearly two-decade sample size earned all-America honors (Jordan Hicks and Bijan Robinson). Both were five-star prospects. Obviously, Xavier Worthy will make the number three when the 2021 results are entered next year.

When it comes to all-conference performers, nine different out-of-state players pulled that off out of the 65: Robinson, Hicks, Gary Johnson, Lamarr Houston, Kasey Studdard, Lyle Sendlein, Donald Hawkins, Poona Ford and Andrew Beck.

Let's take a look at some in-state vs. out-of-state numbers.

When looking at OOS super blue chips (5 stars and high 4 stars), 71.4% started during their careers, 42.9% were multi-year starters, 42.9% were All-Big 12, 42.9% transferred and 28.6% played in the NFL.

When looking at the larger in-state sample size of super blue chips from the same time frame, 83.7% started during their careers, 55.1% were multi-year starters, 28.6% were All-Big 12, 26.5% transferred and 32.7% played in the NFL.

Other than the percentage of All-Big 12 numbers, it's mostly advantage in-state prospects (with a much larger sample size), but not by vast margins.

Here's what it looks like when we focus on only mid-4 stars in the Rivals rankings ...

Out of state: 53.9% started during their careers, 38.5% were multi-year starters, 17.4% were All-Big 12, 50.0% transferred and 23.9% played in the NFL.

In-state: 69.6% started during their careers, 39.1% were multi-year starters, 15.4% were All-Big 12, 61.5% transferred and 23.1% played in the NFL.

Again, there are slight differences in the percentage of players that started at least one game and in the transfer numbers, but the all-important multi-year starters and percentage of NFL players produced are both within 1 percentage point of each other.

Finally, let's take a look at the low 4 stars in the Rivals network during this time frame just to finish the comparisons between the rankings that matter the most.

Out of state: 65.0% started during their careers, 20.0% were multi-year starters, 10.0% were All-Big 12, 60.0% transferred and 5.0% played in the NFL.

In-state: 55.6% started during their careers, 34.2% were multi-year starters, 15.2% were All-Big 12, 44.3% transferred and 19.0% played in the NFL.

Finally, we start to see evidence that once we get to the low 4-star tier of prospects, there's a much greater value for the in-state prospects, as they develop into multi-year starters and NFL players (by nearly 4X the rate), while transferring 15% less.

Those trends continue into the three-star prospects, where the Longhorns have never landed a 3-star OOS prospect that has developed into an All-American or a drafted NFL player, while the transfer rates among those players remain higher than the in-state prospects from the same 3-star tier.

The bottom line?

It's kind of the theme we always suspected would exist ... the players at the top of the rankings (national top 150 level prospects) perform roughly the same in the categories that matter the most, while giving you a slightly higher transfer rate if you go out of state, yet you can make a case that the Longhorns are much more likely to find a player that performs higher and stays longer if they go in-state once the coaches dip into the low four-star tiers and below.

No. 2 - Breaking down the data by star rankings ...

(6.1) Five stars


2002 - DE - Bryan Pickryl - Jenks, OK (Played 2 years, started 3 games as a freshman, medical retirement)
2002 - WR - Marquise Johnson - Champaign, IL (Didn't qualify academically and never played for Texas)
2010 - LB - Jordan Hicks - West Chester, OH (28 career starts, All-American and All-Big 12, 3rd round pick)
2019 - WR - Bru McCoy - Santa Ana, CA. (Transferred)
2020 - RB - Bijan Robinson - Tucson, AZ (28 starts, All-Big 12, All-American, 1st round pick)

Started at least one game: 60%
Multi-year starter: 40%
All-Big 12: 40%
All-American: 40%
Drafted: 40%
Played in the NFL: 40%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60%

(6.0) High 4 stars

2017 - LB - Gary Johnson - Douglas, AL (20 career starts, All-Big 12)
2019 - WR - Jake Smith - Scottsdale, AZ (6 career starts/transferred)

Started at least one game: 100%
Multi-year starter: 50%
All-Big 12: 50%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0%
Played in the NFL: 0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 50%

(5.9) Mid 4 Stars

2002 - OL - Kasey Studdard - Littleton, CO (3 year starter, All-Big 12, 6th round pick)
2002 - DE - Chase Pittman - Shreveport, La. (Transferred)
2006 - DE - Lamarr Houston - Colorado Springs, CO (33 career starts, All-Big 12, 2nd round pick)
2015 - WR - John Burt - WR - Tallahassee, FL (23 career starts)
2016 - DT - D'Andre Christmas-Giles - New Orleans, LA (played 19 career games/transferred)
2016 - WR - Collin Johnson - San Jose, CA (29 career starts, 5th round pick)
2018 - OT - Junior Angilau - Salt Lake City, UT (34 career starts, transferred)
2018 - QB - Cameron Rising - Newbury Park, CA (transferred)
2019 - WR - Marcus Washington - St. Louis, MO (7 career starts, transferred)
2019 - CB - Kenyatta Watson - Loganville, GA (played in 4 games, transferred)
2019 - LB - De'Gabriel Floyd - Westlake Village, CA (transferred)
2019 - DB - Chris Adimora - Lakewood, CA (10 career starts, transferred)
2019 - TE - Braydon Liebrock - TE - Chandler, AZ (played in 7 games)

Active

2021 - WR - Xavier Worthy - Fresno, CA (39 career starts, All-America, All-Big 12)
2022 - DE - J'Mond Tapp - Napoleonville, LA (played in 9 games)
2022 - QB - Maalik Murphy - Gardena, CA. (2 career starts/transferred)
2022 - DE - Justice Finkley - Trussville, AL (played in 26 games)

Started at least one game: 53.9%
Multi-year starter: 38.5%
All-Big 12: 15.4%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 23.1%
Played in the NFL: 23.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 61.5%

(5.8) Low Four Stars

2002 - DT - Lyle Sendlein - Scottsdale, AZ (24 career starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2005 - DE - Aaron Lewis - Albuquerque, NM (15 career starts)
2007 - TE - Blaine Irby - Ventura, CA (6 career starts)
2008 - DB - Nolan Brewster - Denver, CO (played in 30 games)
2009 - DT - Derek Johnson - Hoxie, AR (transferred)
2010 - Ath - DeMarco Cobbs - Tulsa, OK (6 career starts, played in 42 games)
2011 - DB - Josh Turner - Oklahoma City, OK (5 career starts, played in 46 games)
2012- OL - Donald Hawkins - Senatoba, MS (24 career starts, All-Big 12)
2012 - LB - Shiro Davis - Shreveport, LA (8 career starts, played in 44 games)
2012 - QB - Connor Brewer - Scottsdale, AZ (transferred)
2015 - QB - Kai Locksley - Baltimore, MD (transferred)
2015 - CB - Davante Davis - Miami, FL (26 career starts)
2015 - TE - Devonaire Clarington - Miami, FL (Didn't qualify)
2015 - LB - Cecil Cherry - Lakeland, FL (Transfered)
2015 - RB - Kirk Johnson - San Jose, CA (played in 21 games)
2017 - TE - Reese Leitao - Jenks, OK (played in 35 games)
2018 - QB - Casey Thompson - Newcastle, OK (10 starts, transferred)
2018 - LB - Ayodele Adeoye - Bradonton, FL (10 starts, played in 25 games)
2018 - OL - Mikey Grandy - San Mateo, CA (never played)
2019 - DE - Myron Warren - Many, LA (transferred)
2019 - DE- Jacoby Jones - El Dorado, KS (7 starts, played in 27 games)
2019 - RB - Derrian Brown -Buford, GA (never played)

Active

2021 - WR - Jaden Alexis - Coconut Creek, FL (transferred)
2021 - TE - Gunnar Helm - Greenwood Village, CO (10 starts, played in 39 games)
2021 - DB - Jamier Johnson - Pasadena, CA (1 start, transferred)
2022 - DB - Larry Turner-Gooden - Mission Hills, CA (transferred)
2022 - DE - Zac Swanson - Phoenix, AZ (played in 3 games)

Started at least one game: 55.0%
Multi-year starter: 25.0%
All-Big 12: 10.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 5.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

5.7 High 3 stars

2005 - RB - Michael Houston - Denver, CO (transferred)
2006 - DT - Ben Alexander - Anderson, SC (4 starts, played in 38 games)
2013 - OL - Desmond Harrison - Oak Ridge, NC (played in 7 games, played in the NFL)
2014 - DT - Poona Ford - Hilton Head, SC (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2014 - DB - Jermaine Roberts - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2014 - LB - Andrew Beck - Tampa, FL (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in the NFL)
2015 - WR - Gilbert Johnson - Atlanta, GA (didn't qualify)
2018 - DE - Daniel Carson - Independence, MO (transferred)
2018 - DE - Mike Williams - Baton Rouge, LA (transferred)
2019 - LB - Marcus Tillman - Orlando, FL (transferred)

Active

2021 - DE - Barryn Sorrell - New Orleans, LA (24 starts)
2022 - DT - Aaron Bryant - Southaven, MS (played in 9 games)

Started at least one game: 30.0%
Multi-year starter: 20.0%
All-Big 12: 20.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 30.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

(5.6) Mid 3 stars

2012 - DT - Brandon Moore - Scooba, MS (5 starts, transferred)
2014 - TE - Blake Whiteley - Yuma, AZ (transferred)
2015 - OL - Brandon Hodges - Scooba, MS (9 starts, transferred)
2016 - DT - Gerald Wilbon - Destrehan, LA (1 start, 36 games played)
2016 - DE - Malcolm Roach - Baton Rouge, LA (23 starts, 47 games played, played in NFL)
2019 - LB - Caleb Johnson - Fullerton, CA (transfer)

Active

2021 - 5.6 - Casey Cain - WR - New Orleans, LA (3 starts, transferred)

Started at least one game: 66.7%
Multi-year starter: 16.7%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 16.7%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 66.7%

(5.5) Low 3 stars

2010 - K - William Russ - Shreveport, LA (10 starts)
2013 - TE - Geoff Swaim - Oroville, CA (22 starts, drafted in 7th round, played in the NFL)
2014 - OL - Alex Anderson - New Orleans, LA (1 career start, 8 games played)
2014 - DT - Chris Nelson - Lakeland, FL (29 starts)
2015 - OL - Garrett Thomas - Many, LA (1 game played, transferred)
2016 - TE - Peyton Aucoin - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2017 - K - Joshua Rowland - Scooba, MS (11 starts)
2017 - WR - Jordan Pouncey - Winter Park, FL (played in 12 games, transferred)
2019 - OL - Willie Tyler -Council Bluffs, IA (transferred)

Started at least one game: 55.6%
Multi-year starter: 11.1%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 11.1%
Played in the NFL: 11.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 44.4%

(5.4) Two stars

2017 - DE - Jamari Chisholm - Miami, OK (played in 26 games)
2018 - K - Ryan Bujcevski - Melbourne, Australia (started 30 games)
2021 - K - Isaac Pearson - Melbourne, Australia (transferred)

Active

2022 - OL - Lance St. Louis - Gilbert, AZ (played in 24 games)

Started at least one game: 33.3%
Multi-year starter: 33.3%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 0.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 33.3%

No. 3 - Breaking down the Data by State ...

Arizona


2020 - 6.1 - RB - Bijan Robinson - Tucson, AZ (28 starts, All-Big 12, All-American, 1st round pick)
2019 - 6.0 - WR - Jake Smith - Scottsdale, AZ (6 career starts/transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - TE - Braydon Liebrock - TE - Chandler, AZ (played in 7 games)
2002 - 5.8 - DT - Lyle Sendlein - Scottsdale, AZ (24 career starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2012 - 5.8 - QB - Connor Brewer - Scottsdale, AZ (transferred)
2014 - 5.6 - TE - Blake Whiteley - Yuma, AZ (transferred)

Started at least one game: 50.0%
Multi-year starter: 33.3%
All-Big 12: 33.3%
All-American: 16.7%
Drafted: 16.7%
Played in the NFL: 33.3%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 50.0%

California

2019 - 6.1 - WR - Bru McCoy - Santa Ana, Ca. (Transferred)
2016 - 5.9 - WR - Collin Johnson - San Jose, CA (29 career starts, 5th round pick, played in the NFL)
2018 - 5.9 - QB - Cameron Rising - Newbury Park, CA (transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - LB - De'Gabriel Floyd - Westlake Village, CA (transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - DB - Chris Adimora - Lakewood, CA (10 career starts, transferred)
2007 - 5.8 - TE - Blaine Irby - Ventura, CA (6 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - RB - Kirk Johnson - San Jose, CA (played in 21 games)
2018 - 5.8 - OL - Mikey Grandy - San Mateo, CA (never played)
2019 - 5.6 - LB - Caleb Johnson - Fullerton, CA (transfer)
2013 - 5.5 - TE - Geoff Swaim - Oroville, CA (22 starts, drafted in 7th round, played in the NFL)

Started at least one game: 40.0%
Multi-year starter: 20.0%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 20.0%
Played in the NFL: 20.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

Florida

2015 - 5.9 - WR - John Burt - WR - Tallahassee, FL (23 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - CB - Davante Davis - Miami, FL (26 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - TE - Devonaire Clarington - Miami, FL (Didn't qualify)
2015 - 5.8 - LB - Cecil Cherry - Lakeland, FL (Transfered)
2018 - 5.8 - LB - Ayodele Adeoye - Bradonton, FL (started 10 games, played in 25 games)
2014 - 5.7 - LB - Andrew Beck - Tampa, FL (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in the NFL)
2019 - 5.7 - LB - Marcus Tillman - Orlando, Fl. (transferred)
2014 - 5.5 - DT - Chris Nelson - Lakeland, FL (29 starts)
2017 - 5.5 - WR - Jordan Pouncey - Winter Park, FL (played in 12 games, transferred)

Started at least one game: 55.6%
Multi-year starter: 44.4%
All-Big 12: 11.1%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 0.0.%
Played in the NFL: 11.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 44.4%

Louisiana

2002 - 5.9 - DE - Chase Pittman - Shreveport, La. (Transferred)
2016 - 5.9 - DT - D'Andre Christmas-Giles - New Orleans, LA (played 19 career games/transferred)
2012 - 5.8 - LB - Shiro Davis - Shreveport, LA (8 career starts, played in 44 games)
2019 - 5.8 - DE - Myron Warren - Many, LA (transferred)
2014 - 5.7 - DB - Jermaine Roberts - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2018 - 5.7 - DE - Mike Williams - Baton Rouge, LA (transferred)
2016 - 5.6 - DT - Gerald Wilbon - Destrehan, LA (1 start, 36 games played)
2016 - 5.6 - DE - Malcolm Roach - Baton Rouge, LA (23 starts, 47 games played, played in NFL)
2010 - 5.5 - K - William Russ - Shreveport, LA (10 starts)
2014 - 5.5 - OL - Alex Anderson - New Orleans, LA (1 career start, 8 games played)
2016 - 5.5 - TE - Peyton Aucoin - New Orleans, LA (transferred)

Started at least one game: 45.5%
Multi-year starter: 9.1%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 20.%
Played in the NFL: 9.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 54.5%

Oklahoma

2002 - 6.1 - DE - Bryan Pickryl - Jenks, OK (3 starts, medical retirement)
2010 - 5.8 - Ath - DeMarco Cobbs - Tulsa, OK (6 career starts, played in 42 games)
2011 - 5.8 - DB - Josh Turner - Oklahoma City, OK (5 career starts, played in 46 games)
2017 - 5.8 - TE - Reese Leitao - Jenks, OK (played in 35 games)
2018 - 5.8 - QB - Casey Thompson - Newcastle, OK (started 10 games, transferred)
2017 - 5.4 - DE - Jamari Chisholm - Miami, OK (played in 26 games)

Started at least one game: 66.7%
Multi-year starter: 0.0%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 0.0.%
Played in the NFL: 0.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 16.7%

No. 4 - K.J Lacey is Gonna Make Everyone Sweat ...

As it turns out, Texas 2025 quarterback commit K.J. Lacey didn't visit Ole Moss this weekend.

Whew, right? I guess.

The truth of the matter is that the Longhorns haven't had a quarterback commit quite like Lacey since Ryan Perrilloux back in the 2005 recruiting class.

Like Perrilloux, Lacey is an out-of-state commit. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is taking visits to other schools, including the forever dangerous in-state variety. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is saying all the right things.

It's not ideal to have the player you'd like to be serving as an unofficial Pied Piper to the 2025 recruiting class, but what are you going to do? The Longhorns knew when they accepted the commitment of Lacey that it was going to be like this.

I suppose the saving grace in all of this is that quarterback will probably never be an issue as long as Steve Sarkisian is the head coach and if we're being honest, there's a good chance that Arch Manning's career will take the Longhorns into the 2026 season at the very least.

Who the hell knows what everything looks like in 2027?

Therefore, just relax. Lacey's flirting with other schools is just going to be something that Texas will have to survive. If the Longhorns can't survive, Sarkisian will just go get another badass.

No. 5 - Random recruiting thought that I've had a lot this week ...

It's a little curious to see that the Longhorns haven't been as active as other schools they are competing against in-state or across the country in terms of scheduling multiple Junior Day/Recruiting events in the month of January.

We all know that Sark and his staff like to put the foot on the gas in the spring and summer, so I'm certainly not yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater, it's just something that's hard not to think about when very few of the state's elite of the elite made their way to the Texas campus this month, which means at least four months will have passed for most of the super blue-chip in-state prospects since they'll have visited Austin by the time the dead period ends in early March.

That being said, I might be Mr. Worrier around the Orangebloods universe, and it is important to note that Sarkisian doesn't seem to give a damn. Considering he's having a better last 12 months than most of us outside of @Travis Galey's wife, I'll easily give him the benefit of the doubt. Yet, I'm not the type that likes to point things out after the fact when I'm thinking them in real-time, so ... just know I've thought that more urgency could have existed this month in recruiting.

Now I'll shut up.

No. 6 - Does it really matter who starts at running back?

One of the most popular questions I've received in the last few weeks has centered on whether I believe Jaydon Blue will overtake CJ Baxter for the starting running back position and I find myself simply not all that bothered by it all.

Following the injury to Jonathon Brooks, I thought Sarkisian did a great job of mixing the talents of Blue and Baxter together. They really do make a great 1-2 punch... a little lightning and thunder duo, if you will.

If both of those players receive roughly 40% of the running game reps and the other 20% is split among Savion Redd, Tre Wisner, Christian Clark and Jerrick Gibson, I don't really see that there's anything to worry about. Same if it's a 50/30 split, either way. It's really hard to imagine a more extreme split than 50-30, barring injuries.

I know no one will listen to me, but of all the things to focus on during the spring and summer, this is down my list at the moment.

No. 7 – About Rodney Terry …

It's very, very possible that everyone has kind of overreacted in the last few months over the job performance of first-year head coach Rodney Terry.

Obviously, what happens in March will define how we remember this season, just as it defined whether he got the job in the first place last year, but the truth of the matter is that his team has been playing some pretty damn good basketball since that whole "Horns Down" fiasco a few weeks ago. Only a ridiculously hot-shooting BYU in Provo and an overtime heartbreaker against top-5 Houston has the Longhorns from being undefeated in their last five games against ranked teams.

This team plays hard. It has a couple of players who can carry it in big games, including perhaps the most lethal scorer in clutch play that the Longhorns have had since Kevin Durant. Yeah ... I said that.

Throw in the fact that recruiting is going well and ... maybe ... just maybe ... Terry is doing kind of well?

No. 8 – BUY or SELL …

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(Buy) The quarterback battle for the first-team slot is going to be incredibly competitive, but I'm in. Same with Banks.



(Sell) I don't think recruiting the edge position has been a big issue lately when you consider Texas landing five-star Collin Simmons, UTSA star Trey Moore and both Ethan Burke/Colton Vasek. The defensive tackle position is the real recruiting challenge. I'll be honest ... I'm not sure what to think about in-state recruiting, but besting 3 of the top 8 might be a tough chore.



(Sell) What does get it right even mean?



(Buy) No one will ever bring it up again.



(Buy) I'm president of the Fan Club.



(Sell) I'm going to wait until I see it, first.



(Sell) I don't know what's different about 2025 than 2024.



(Sell) I'm expecting a very quiet day.



exactly GIF




(Sell) Isaiah Bond could very well surpass Worthy's yards.



(Buy) Yes, he could stand to gain strength to his frame after shedding his bad weight a year ago and kind of turning himself into a middleweight. Maybe he can get to super middleweight.

No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …

... I just said no to the NFL Pro Bowl and the NHL all-star games. Just couldn't force myself to care.

... Give me Kansas City over the Niners. I'm done doubting Patrick Mahomes.

... As a Cowboys fan, I'm not worried about Dan Quinn in Washington at all.

... Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Pete Thamel, NFL scouts are not going completely nuts over any quarterback in the 2025 draft class yet, including Ewers. "There's no sure-thing sophomore quarterback," one scout said. "There's always a riser or a one-year wonder, so it may not be that bad."

... Please never speak of the Liverpool/Arsenal game ever again. I lived it once ... that's enough.

... Kylian Mbappe going to Real Madrid is the least surprising headline ever. Where the hell else was he going to go?

... I wanna party with Michael Buble!


... Dogs are the best.


... You win some, you lose some ...


No. 10 - Top 10: Carl Weathers movies/television roles ...

Rest in peace, Apollo.

You had to know that I would pay tribute to one of my favorite actors after his passing this weekend. Let's just get right to it.

10. Good Times

One of his first acting roles.



9. Semi-Tough

Dreamer Tatum, y'all! It's been too long since I've seen this movie.

8. Happy Gilmore

Some will have this one ranked higher and for that ... I understand.

7. Action Jackson

There should have been a few more of these types of roles for him. On a side note, I'm still in lust for Vanity.

6. Arrested Development

How did he not win an Emmy?



5. Predator

Spoiler alert ... that was one hell of a harsh death.

4. Rocky

The sight of him coming out to the ring as George Washington still gets me.

3. Rocky III

Apollo and Rocky hugging in the ocean. Might need to re-think having this No. 3

2. Rocky IV

Yes, it's messed up that Apollo dies, but my goodness, he went absolutely HAM the entire time he was on screen.

1. Rocky II

The best acting that Weathers ever did in the Rocky series. His conflicted and tortured version of Apollo is the key to the entire movie.
Arrested Development GIF
 
Making the playoffs is what matters in 2024.
I would say getting past the first round of the new 12 team playoffs is the expectation given we were the 3rd ranked team in the playoffs last season.
 
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Much of the focus of this week's column centers around a deep dig that I've been wanting to do for years and finally decided to tackle ... a historical breakdown of UT's out-of-state recruiting during the modern era of recruiting (2002-present).

Just how risky is going out of state? How successful has it been? Do out-of-state prospects transfer more than in-state prospects? Do they perform better?

Let's start out with some basics in the conversation. The focus on these numbers is from 2002-2020, primarily because not all of the 2021 recruits have finished their careers, which means that I'd only be able to enter partial 2021 numbers and that just didn't feel right.

During the time frame of 2002-2020, the Longhorns signed 65 out-of-state prospects. Amazingly, only two from a nearly two-decade sample size earned all-America honors (Jordan Hicks and Bijan Robinson). Both were five-star prospects. Obviously, Xavier Worthy will make the number three when the 2021 results are entered next year.

When it comes to all-conference performers, nine different out-of-state players pulled that off out of the 65: Robinson, Hicks, Gary Johnson, Lamarr Houston, Kasey Studdard, Lyle Sendlein, Donald Hawkins, Poona Ford and Andrew Beck.

Let's take a look at some in-state vs. out-of-state numbers.

When looking at OOS super blue chips (5 stars and high 4 stars), 71.4% started during their careers, 42.9% were multi-year starters, 42.9% were All-Big 12, 42.9% transferred and 28.6% played in the NFL.

When looking at the larger in-state sample size of super blue chips from the same time frame, 83.7% started during their careers, 55.1% were multi-year starters, 28.6% were All-Big 12, 26.5% transferred and 32.7% played in the NFL.

Other than the percentage of All-Big 12 numbers, it's mostly advantage in-state prospects (with a much larger sample size), but not by vast margins.

Here's what it looks like when we focus on only mid-4 stars in the Rivals rankings ...

Out of state: 53.9% started during their careers, 38.5% were multi-year starters, 17.4% were All-Big 12, 50.0% transferred and 23.9% played in the NFL.

In-state: 69.6% started during their careers, 39.1% were multi-year starters, 15.4% were All-Big 12, 61.5% transferred and 23.1% played in the NFL.

Again, there are slight differences in the percentage of players that started at least one game and in the transfer numbers, but the all-important multi-year starters and percentage of NFL players produced are both within 1 percentage point of each other.

Finally, let's take a look at the low 4 stars in the Rivals network during this time frame just to finish the comparisons between the rankings that matter the most.

Out of state: 65.0% started during their careers, 20.0% were multi-year starters, 10.0% were All-Big 12, 60.0% transferred and 5.0% played in the NFL.

In-state: 55.6% started during their careers, 34.2% were multi-year starters, 15.2% were All-Big 12, 44.3% transferred and 19.0% played in the NFL.

Finally, we start to see evidence that once we get to the low 4-star tier of prospects, there's a much greater value for the in-state prospects, as they develop into multi-year starters and NFL players (by nearly 4X the rate), while transferring 15% less.

Those trends continue into the three-star prospects, where the Longhorns have never landed a 3-star OOS prospect that has developed into an All-American or a drafted NFL player, while the transfer rates among those players remain higher than the in-state prospects from the same 3-star tier.

The bottom line?

It's kind of the theme we always suspected would exist ... the players at the top of the rankings (national top 150 level prospects) perform roughly the same in the categories that matter the most, while giving you a slightly higher transfer rate if you go out of state, yet you can make a case that the Longhorns are much more likely to find a player that performs higher and stays longer if they go in-state once the coaches dip into the low four-star tiers and below.

No. 2 - Breaking down the data by star rankings ...

(6.1) Five stars


2002 - DE - Bryan Pickryl - Jenks, OK (Played 2 years, started 3 games as a freshman, medical retirement)
2002 - WR - Marquise Johnson - Champaign, IL (Didn't qualify academically and never played for Texas)
2010 - LB - Jordan Hicks - West Chester, OH (28 career starts, All-American and All-Big 12, 3rd round pick)
2019 - WR - Bru McCoy - Santa Ana, CA. (Transferred)
2020 - RB - Bijan Robinson - Tucson, AZ (28 starts, All-Big 12, All-American, 1st round pick)

Started at least one game: 60%
Multi-year starter: 40%
All-Big 12: 40%
All-American: 40%
Drafted: 40%
Played in the NFL: 40%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60%

(6.0) High 4 stars

2017 - LB - Gary Johnson - Douglas, AL (20 career starts, All-Big 12)
2019 - WR - Jake Smith - Scottsdale, AZ (6 career starts/transferred)

Started at least one game: 100%
Multi-year starter: 50%
All-Big 12: 50%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0%
Played in the NFL: 0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 50%

(5.9) Mid 4 Stars

2002 - OL - Kasey Studdard - Littleton, CO (3 year starter, All-Big 12, 6th round pick)
2002 - DE - Chase Pittman - Shreveport, La. (Transferred)
2006 - DE - Lamarr Houston - Colorado Springs, CO (33 career starts, All-Big 12, 2nd round pick)
2015 - WR - John Burt - WR - Tallahassee, FL (23 career starts)
2016 - DT - D'Andre Christmas-Giles - New Orleans, LA (played 19 career games/transferred)
2016 - WR - Collin Johnson - San Jose, CA (29 career starts, 5th round pick)
2018 - OT - Junior Angilau - Salt Lake City, UT (34 career starts, transferred)
2018 - QB - Cameron Rising - Newbury Park, CA (transferred)
2019 - WR - Marcus Washington - St. Louis, MO (7 career starts, transferred)
2019 - CB - Kenyatta Watson - Loganville, GA (played in 4 games, transferred)
2019 - LB - De'Gabriel Floyd - Westlake Village, CA (transferred)
2019 - DB - Chris Adimora - Lakewood, CA (10 career starts, transferred)
2019 - TE - Braydon Liebrock - TE - Chandler, AZ (played in 7 games)

Active

2021 - WR - Xavier Worthy - Fresno, CA (39 career starts, All-America, All-Big 12)
2022 - DE - J'Mond Tapp - Napoleonville, LA (played in 9 games)
2022 - QB - Maalik Murphy - Gardena, CA. (2 career starts/transferred)
2022 - DE - Justice Finkley - Trussville, AL (played in 26 games)

Started at least one game: 53.9%
Multi-year starter: 38.5%
All-Big 12: 15.4%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 23.1%
Played in the NFL: 23.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 61.5%

(5.8) Low Four Stars

2002 - DT - Lyle Sendlein - Scottsdale, AZ (24 career starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2005 - DE - Aaron Lewis - Albuquerque, NM (15 career starts)
2007 - TE - Blaine Irby - Ventura, CA (6 career starts)
2008 - DB - Nolan Brewster - Denver, CO (played in 30 games)
2009 - DT - Derek Johnson - Hoxie, AR (transferred)
2010 - Ath - DeMarco Cobbs - Tulsa, OK (6 career starts, played in 42 games)
2011 - DB - Josh Turner - Oklahoma City, OK (5 career starts, played in 46 games)
2012- OL - Donald Hawkins - Senatoba, MS (24 career starts, All-Big 12)
2012 - LB - Shiro Davis - Shreveport, LA (8 career starts, played in 44 games)
2012 - QB - Connor Brewer - Scottsdale, AZ (transferred)
2015 - QB - Kai Locksley - Baltimore, MD (transferred)
2015 - CB - Davante Davis - Miami, FL (26 career starts)
2015 - TE - Devonaire Clarington - Miami, FL (Didn't qualify)
2015 - LB - Cecil Cherry - Lakeland, FL (Transfered)
2015 - RB - Kirk Johnson - San Jose, CA (played in 21 games)
2017 - TE - Reese Leitao - Jenks, OK (played in 35 games)
2018 - QB - Casey Thompson - Newcastle, OK (10 starts, transferred)
2018 - LB - Ayodele Adeoye - Bradonton, FL (10 starts, played in 25 games)
2018 - OL - Mikey Grandy - San Mateo, CA (never played)
2019 - DE - Myron Warren - Many, LA (transferred)
2019 - DE- Jacoby Jones - El Dorado, KS (7 starts, played in 27 games)
2019 - RB - Derrian Brown -Buford, GA (never played)

Active

2021 - WR - Jaden Alexis - Coconut Creek, FL (transferred)
2021 - TE - Gunnar Helm - Greenwood Village, CO (10 starts, played in 39 games)
2021 - DB - Jamier Johnson - Pasadena, CA (1 start, transferred)
2022 - DB - Larry Turner-Gooden - Mission Hills, CA (transferred)
2022 - DE - Zac Swanson - Phoenix, AZ (played in 3 games)

Started at least one game: 55.0%
Multi-year starter: 25.0%
All-Big 12: 10.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 5.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

5.7 High 3 stars

2005 - RB - Michael Houston - Denver, CO (transferred)
2006 - DT - Ben Alexander - Anderson, SC (4 starts, played in 38 games)
2013 - OL - Desmond Harrison - Oak Ridge, NC (played in 7 games, played in the NFL)
2014 - DT - Poona Ford - Hilton Head, SC (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2014 - DB - Jermaine Roberts - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2014 - LB - Andrew Beck - Tampa, FL (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in the NFL)
2015 - WR - Gilbert Johnson - Atlanta, GA (didn't qualify)
2018 - DE - Daniel Carson - Independence, MO (transferred)
2018 - DE - Mike Williams - Baton Rouge, LA (transferred)
2019 - LB - Marcus Tillman - Orlando, FL (transferred)

Active

2021 - DE - Barryn Sorrell - New Orleans, LA (24 starts)
2022 - DT - Aaron Bryant - Southaven, MS (played in 9 games)

Started at least one game: 30.0%
Multi-year starter: 20.0%
All-Big 12: 20.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 30.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

(5.6) Mid 3 stars

2012 - DT - Brandon Moore - Scooba, MS (5 starts, transferred)
2014 - TE - Blake Whiteley - Yuma, AZ (transferred)
2015 - OL - Brandon Hodges - Scooba, MS (9 starts, transferred)
2016 - DT - Gerald Wilbon - Destrehan, LA (1 start, 36 games played)
2016 - DE - Malcolm Roach - Baton Rouge, LA (23 starts, 47 games played, played in NFL)
2019 - LB - Caleb Johnson - Fullerton, CA (transfer)

Active

2021 - 5.6 - Casey Cain - WR - New Orleans, LA (3 starts, transferred)

Started at least one game: 66.7%
Multi-year starter: 16.7%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 16.7%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 66.7%

(5.5) Low 3 stars

2010 - K - William Russ - Shreveport, LA (10 starts)
2013 - TE - Geoff Swaim - Oroville, CA (22 starts, drafted in 7th round, played in the NFL)
2014 - OL - Alex Anderson - New Orleans, LA (1 career start, 8 games played)
2014 - DT - Chris Nelson - Lakeland, FL (29 starts)
2015 - OL - Garrett Thomas - Many, LA (1 game played, transferred)
2016 - TE - Peyton Aucoin - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2017 - K - Joshua Rowland - Scooba, MS (11 starts)
2017 - WR - Jordan Pouncey - Winter Park, FL (played in 12 games, transferred)
2019 - OL - Willie Tyler -Council Bluffs, IA (transferred)

Started at least one game: 55.6%
Multi-year starter: 11.1%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 11.1%
Played in the NFL: 11.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 44.4%

(5.4) Two stars

2017 - DE - Jamari Chisholm - Miami, OK (played in 26 games)
2018 - K - Ryan Bujcevski - Melbourne, Australia (started 30 games)
2021 - K - Isaac Pearson - Melbourne, Australia (transferred)

Active

2022 - OL - Lance St. Louis - Gilbert, AZ (played in 24 games)

Started at least one game: 33.3%
Multi-year starter: 33.3%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 0.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 33.3%

No. 3 - Breaking down the Data by State ...

Arizona


2020 - 6.1 - RB - Bijan Robinson - Tucson, AZ (28 starts, All-Big 12, All-American, 1st round pick)
2019 - 6.0 - WR - Jake Smith - Scottsdale, AZ (6 career starts/transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - TE - Braydon Liebrock - TE - Chandler, AZ (played in 7 games)
2002 - 5.8 - DT - Lyle Sendlein - Scottsdale, AZ (24 career starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2012 - 5.8 - QB - Connor Brewer - Scottsdale, AZ (transferred)
2014 - 5.6 - TE - Blake Whiteley - Yuma, AZ (transferred)

Started at least one game: 50.0%
Multi-year starter: 33.3%
All-Big 12: 33.3%
All-American: 16.7%
Drafted: 16.7%
Played in the NFL: 33.3%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 50.0%

California

2019 - 6.1 - WR - Bru McCoy - Santa Ana, Ca. (Transferred)
2016 - 5.9 - WR - Collin Johnson - San Jose, CA (29 career starts, 5th round pick, played in the NFL)
2018 - 5.9 - QB - Cameron Rising - Newbury Park, CA (transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - LB - De'Gabriel Floyd - Westlake Village, CA (transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - DB - Chris Adimora - Lakewood, CA (10 career starts, transferred)
2007 - 5.8 - TE - Blaine Irby - Ventura, CA (6 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - RB - Kirk Johnson - San Jose, CA (played in 21 games)
2018 - 5.8 - OL - Mikey Grandy - San Mateo, CA (never played)
2019 - 5.6 - LB - Caleb Johnson - Fullerton, CA (transfer)
2013 - 5.5 - TE - Geoff Swaim - Oroville, CA (22 starts, drafted in 7th round, played in the NFL)

Started at least one game: 40.0%
Multi-year starter: 20.0%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 20.0%
Played in the NFL: 20.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

Florida

2015 - 5.9 - WR - John Burt - WR - Tallahassee, FL (23 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - CB - Davante Davis - Miami, FL (26 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - TE - Devonaire Clarington - Miami, FL (Didn't qualify)
2015 - 5.8 - LB - Cecil Cherry - Lakeland, FL (Transfered)
2018 - 5.8 - LB - Ayodele Adeoye - Bradonton, FL (started 10 games, played in 25 games)
2014 - 5.7 - LB - Andrew Beck - Tampa, FL (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in the NFL)
2019 - 5.7 - LB - Marcus Tillman - Orlando, Fl. (transferred)
2014 - 5.5 - DT - Chris Nelson - Lakeland, FL (29 starts)
2017 - 5.5 - WR - Jordan Pouncey - Winter Park, FL (played in 12 games, transferred)

Started at least one game: 55.6%
Multi-year starter: 44.4%
All-Big 12: 11.1%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 0.0.%
Played in the NFL: 11.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 44.4%

Louisiana

2002 - 5.9 - DE - Chase Pittman - Shreveport, La. (Transferred)
2016 - 5.9 - DT - D'Andre Christmas-Giles - New Orleans, LA (played 19 career games/transferred)
2012 - 5.8 - LB - Shiro Davis - Shreveport, LA (8 career starts, played in 44 games)
2019 - 5.8 - DE - Myron Warren - Many, LA (transferred)
2014 - 5.7 - DB - Jermaine Roberts - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2018 - 5.7 - DE - Mike Williams - Baton Rouge, LA (transferred)
2016 - 5.6 - DT - Gerald Wilbon - Destrehan, LA (1 start, 36 games played)
2016 - 5.6 - DE - Malcolm Roach - Baton Rouge, LA (23 starts, 47 games played, played in NFL)
2010 - 5.5 - K - William Russ - Shreveport, LA (10 starts)
2014 - 5.5 - OL - Alex Anderson - New Orleans, LA (1 career start, 8 games played)
2016 - 5.5 - TE - Peyton Aucoin - New Orleans, LA (transferred)

Started at least one game: 45.5%
Multi-year starter: 9.1%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 20.%
Played in the NFL: 9.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 54.5%

Oklahoma

2002 - 6.1 - DE - Bryan Pickryl - Jenks, OK (3 starts, medical retirement)
2010 - 5.8 - Ath - DeMarco Cobbs - Tulsa, OK (6 career starts, played in 42 games)
2011 - 5.8 - DB - Josh Turner - Oklahoma City, OK (5 career starts, played in 46 games)
2017 - 5.8 - TE - Reese Leitao - Jenks, OK (played in 35 games)
2018 - 5.8 - QB - Casey Thompson - Newcastle, OK (started 10 games, transferred)
2017 - 5.4 - DE - Jamari Chisholm - Miami, OK (played in 26 games)

Started at least one game: 66.7%
Multi-year starter: 0.0%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 0.0.%
Played in the NFL: 0.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 16.7%

No. 4 - K.J Lacey is Gonna Make Everyone Sweat ...

As it turns out, Texas 2025 quarterback commit K.J. Lacey didn't visit Ole Moss this weekend.

Whew, right? I guess.

The truth of the matter is that the Longhorns haven't had a quarterback commit quite like Lacey since Ryan Perrilloux back in the 2005 recruiting class.

Like Perrilloux, Lacey is an out-of-state commit. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is taking visits to other schools, including the forever dangerous in-state variety. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is saying all the right things.

It's not ideal to have the player you'd like to be serving as an unofficial Pied Piper to the 2025 recruiting class, but what are you going to do? The Longhorns knew when they accepted the commitment of Lacey that it was going to be like this.

I suppose the saving grace in all of this is that quarterback will probably never be an issue as long as Steve Sarkisian is the head coach and if we're being honest, there's a good chance that Arch Manning's career will take the Longhorns into the 2026 season at the very least.

Who the hell knows what everything looks like in 2027?

Therefore, just relax. Lacey's flirting with other schools is just going to be something that Texas will have to survive. If the Longhorns can't survive, Sarkisian will just go get another badass.

No. 5 - Random recruiting thought that I've had a lot this week ...

It's a little curious to see that the Longhorns haven't been as active as other schools they are competing against in-state or across the country in terms of scheduling multiple Junior Day/Recruiting events in the month of January.

We all know that Sark and his staff like to put the foot on the gas in the spring and summer, so I'm certainly not yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater, it's just something that's hard not to think about when very few of the state's elite of the elite made their way to the Texas campus this month, which means at least four months will have passed for most of the super blue-chip in-state prospects since they'll have visited Austin by the time the dead period ends in early March.

That being said, I might be Mr. Worrier around the Orangebloods universe, and it is important to note that Sarkisian doesn't seem to give a damn. Considering he's having a better last 12 months than most of us outside of @Travis Galey's wife, I'll easily give him the benefit of the doubt. Yet, I'm not the type that likes to point things out after the fact when I'm thinking them in real-time, so ... just know I've thought that more urgency could have existed this month in recruiting.

Now I'll shut up.

No. 6 - Does it really matter who starts at running back?

One of the most popular questions I've received in the last few weeks has centered on whether I believe Jaydon Blue will overtake CJ Baxter for the starting running back position and I find myself simply not all that bothered by it all.

Following the injury to Jonathon Brooks, I thought Sarkisian did a great job of mixing the talents of Blue and Baxter together. They really do make a great 1-2 punch... a little lightning and thunder duo, if you will.

If both of those players receive roughly 40% of the running game reps and the other 20% is split among Savion Redd, Tre Wisner, Christian Clark and Jerrick Gibson, I don't really see that there's anything to worry about. Same if it's a 50/30 split, either way. It's really hard to imagine a more extreme split than 50-30, barring injuries.

I know no one will listen to me, but of all the things to focus on during the spring and summer, this is down my list at the moment.

No. 7 – About Rodney Terry …

It's very, very possible that everyone has kind of overreacted in the last few months over the job performance of first-year head coach Rodney Terry.

Obviously, what happens in March will define how we remember this season, just as it defined whether he got the job in the first place last year, but the truth of the matter is that his team has been playing some pretty damn good basketball since that whole "Horns Down" fiasco a few weeks ago. Only a ridiculously hot-shooting BYU in Provo and an overtime heartbreaker against top-5 Houston has the Longhorns from being undefeated in their last five games against ranked teams.

This team plays hard. It has a couple of players who can carry it in big games, including perhaps the most lethal scorer in clutch play that the Longhorns have had since Kevin Durant. Yeah ... I said that.

Throw in the fact that recruiting is going well and ... maybe ... just maybe ... Terry is doing kind of well?

No. 8 – BUY or SELL …

giphy.gif




(Buy) The quarterback battle for the first-team slot is going to be incredibly competitive, but I'm in. Same with Banks.



(Sell) I don't think recruiting the edge position has been a big issue lately when you consider Texas landing five-star Collin Simmons, UTSA star Trey Moore and both Ethan Burke/Colton Vasek. The defensive tackle position is the real recruiting challenge. I'll be honest ... I'm not sure what to think about in-state recruiting, but besting 3 of the top 8 might be a tough chore.



(Sell) What does get it right even mean?



(Buy) No one will ever bring it up again.



(Buy) I'm president of the Fan Club.



(Sell) I'm going to wait until I see it, first.



(Sell) I don't know what's different about 2025 than 2024.



(Sell) I'm expecting a very quiet day.



exactly GIF




(Sell) Isaiah Bond could very well surpass Worthy's yards.



(Buy) Yes, he could stand to gain strength to his frame after shedding his bad weight a year ago and kind of turning himself into a middleweight. Maybe he can get to super middleweight.

No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …

... I just said no to the NFL Pro Bowl and the NHL all-star games. Just couldn't force myself to care.

... Give me Kansas City over the Niners. I'm done doubting Patrick Mahomes.

... As a Cowboys fan, I'm not worried about Dan Quinn in Washington at all.

... Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Pete Thamel, NFL scouts are not going completely nuts over any quarterback in the 2025 draft class yet, including Ewers. "There's no sure-thing sophomore quarterback," one scout said. "There's always a riser or a one-year wonder, so it may not be that bad."

... Please never speak of the Liverpool/Arsenal game ever again. I lived it once ... that's enough.

... Kylian Mbappe going to Real Madrid is the least surprising headline ever. Where the hell else was he going to go?

... I wanna party with Michael Buble!


... Dogs are the best.


... You win some, you lose some ...


No. 10 - Top 10: Carl Weathers movies/television roles ...

Rest in peace, Apollo.

You had to know that I would pay tribute to one of my favorite actors after his passing this weekend. Let's just get right to it.

10. Good Times

One of his first acting roles.



9. Semi-Tough

Dreamer Tatum, y'all! It's been too long since I've seen this movie.

8. Happy Gilmore

Some will have this one ranked higher and for that ... I understand.

7. Action Jackson

There should have been a few more of these types of roles for him. On a side note, I'm still in lust for Vanity.

6. Arrested Development

How did he not win an Emmy?



5. Predator

Spoiler alert ... that was one hell of a harsh death.

4. Rocky

The sight of him coming out to the ring as George Washington still gets me.

3. Rocky III

Apollo and Rocky hugging in the ocean. Might need to re-think having this No. 3

2. Rocky IV

Yes, it's messed up that Apollo dies, but my goodness, he went absolutely HAM the entire time he was on screen.

1. Rocky II

The best acting that Weathers ever did in the Rocky series. His conflicted and tortured version of Apollo is the key to the entire movie.
Good read. I thought De'Gabriel Floyd was a medical retirement, not a transfer?
 
Great one this weekend.

I believe 2024 is going to be the toughest season for the Longhorns football team since I have been watching closely back in high school, circa 1980. Between going into Ann Arbor, a bunch of unfamiliar SEC teams, Aggroid game and GA coming to Austin. To top it off the expectations of the fan base is extremely high. I cant think of any more of a difficult season.

QE is going to have his hands full. He now has to figure out how to take his game to the next level. Same with Sark and his coaching.

Keep in mind almost all of our conf games in 2023 were against seriously inferior players. In the SEC, I would expect to see much tougher teams with a higher mix of 4/5 star players. Maybe we play like we did against AL two years in a row.
Wow you are a serious worrier. I am super confident going into the SEC with a 3rd year starter at QB with amazing talent. I think 8 of our opponents have new QB's and several with new coaches. We are positioned well. Life is much better if you trust in Quinn. '22 Oklahoma State was a long time ago.
 
Hard to believe that Blaine Irby only had six starts. That guy's time here was like a saga. It's less hard to believe Cecil Cherry's lack of starts, that guys time after here was like a saga.
 
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No. 4 - K.J Lacey is Gonna Make Everyone Sweat ...

As it turns out, Texas 2025 quarterback commit K.J. Lacey didn't visit Ole Moss this weekend.

Whew, right? I guess.

The truth of the matter is that the Longhorns haven't had a quarterback commit quite like Lacey since Ryan Perrilloux back in the 2005 recruiting class.

Like Perrilloux, Lacey is an out-of-state commit. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is taking visits to other schools, including the forever dangerous in-state variety. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is saying all the right things.

It's not ideal to have the player you'd like to be serving as an unofficial Pied Piper to the 2025 recruiting class, but what are you going to do? The Longhorns knew when they accepted the commitment of Lacey that it was going to be like this.

Speaking with someone in local media in the Mobile area, they believe Lacey ends up with his high school WR at Alabama.

But it could be their bias showing.
 
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ee0e3a40b744e2eebc3b4d949eaa9055x.jpg

Much of the focus of this week's column centers around a deep dig that I've been wanting to do for years and finally decided to tackle ... a historical breakdown of UT's out-of-state recruiting during the modern era of recruiting (2002-present).

Just how risky is going out of state? How successful has it been? Do out-of-state prospects transfer more than in-state prospects? Do they perform better?

Let's start out with some basics in the conversation. The focus on these numbers is from 2002-2020, primarily because not all of the 2021 recruits have finished their careers, which means that I'd only be able to enter partial 2021 numbers and that just didn't feel right.

During the time frame of 2002-2020, the Longhorns signed 65 out-of-state prospects. Amazingly, only two from a nearly two-decade sample size earned all-America honors (Jordan Hicks and Bijan Robinson). Both were five-star prospects. Obviously, Xavier Worthy will make the number three when the 2021 results are entered next year.

When it comes to all-conference performers, nine different out-of-state players pulled that off out of the 65: Robinson, Hicks, Gary Johnson, Lamarr Houston, Kasey Studdard, Lyle Sendlein, Donald Hawkins, Poona Ford and Andrew Beck.

Let's take a look at some in-state vs. out-of-state numbers.

When looking at OOS super blue chips (5 stars and high 4 stars), 71.4% started during their careers, 42.9% were multi-year starters, 42.9% were All-Big 12, 42.9% transferred and 28.6% played in the NFL.

When looking at the larger in-state sample size of super blue chips from the same time frame, 83.7% started during their careers, 55.1% were multi-year starters, 28.6% were All-Big 12, 26.5% transferred and 32.7% played in the NFL.

Other than the percentage of All-Big 12 numbers, it's mostly advantage in-state prospects (with a much larger sample size), but not by vast margins.

Here's what it looks like when we focus on only mid-4 stars in the Rivals rankings ...

Out of state: 53.9% started during their careers, 38.5% were multi-year starters, 17.4% were All-Big 12, 50.0% transferred and 23.9% played in the NFL.

In-state: 69.6% started during their careers, 39.1% were multi-year starters, 15.4% were All-Big 12, 61.5% transferred and 23.1% played in the NFL.

Again, there are slight differences in the percentage of players that started at least one game and in the transfer numbers, but the all-important multi-year starters and percentage of NFL players produced are both within 1 percentage point of each other.

Finally, let's take a look at the low 4 stars in the Rivals network during this time frame just to finish the comparisons between the rankings that matter the most.

Out of state: 65.0% started during their careers, 20.0% were multi-year starters, 10.0% were All-Big 12, 60.0% transferred and 5.0% played in the NFL.

In-state: 55.6% started during their careers, 34.2% were multi-year starters, 15.2% were All-Big 12, 44.3% transferred and 19.0% played in the NFL.

Finally, we start to see evidence that once we get to the low 4-star tier of prospects, there's a much greater value for the in-state prospects, as they develop into multi-year starters and NFL players (by nearly 4X the rate), while transferring 15% less.

Those trends continue into the three-star prospects, where the Longhorns have never landed a 3-star OOS prospect that has developed into an All-American or a drafted NFL player, while the transfer rates among those players remain higher than the in-state prospects from the same 3-star tier.

The bottom line?

It's kind of the theme we always suspected would exist ... the players at the top of the rankings (national top 150 level prospects) perform roughly the same in the categories that matter the most, while giving you a slightly higher transfer rate if you go out of state, yet you can make a case that the Longhorns are much more likely to find a player that performs higher and stays longer if they go in-state once the coaches dip into the low four-star tiers and below.

No. 2 - Breaking down the data by star rankings ...

(6.1) Five stars


2002 - DE - Bryan Pickryl - Jenks, OK (Played 2 years, started 3 games as a freshman, medical retirement)
2002 - WR - Marquise Johnson - Champaign, IL (Didn't qualify academically and never played for Texas)
2010 - LB - Jordan Hicks - West Chester, OH (28 career starts, All-American and All-Big 12, 3rd round pick)
2019 - WR - Bru McCoy - Santa Ana, CA. (Transferred)
2020 - RB - Bijan Robinson - Tucson, AZ (28 starts, All-Big 12, All-American, 1st round pick)

Started at least one game: 60%
Multi-year starter: 40%
All-Big 12: 40%
All-American: 40%
Drafted: 40%
Played in the NFL: 40%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60%

(6.0) High 4 stars

2017 - LB - Gary Johnson - Douglas, AL (20 career starts, All-Big 12)
2019 - WR - Jake Smith - Scottsdale, AZ (6 career starts/transferred)

Started at least one game: 100%
Multi-year starter: 50%
All-Big 12: 50%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0%
Played in the NFL: 0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 50%

(5.9) Mid 4 Stars

2002 - OL - Kasey Studdard - Littleton, CO (3 year starter, All-Big 12, 6th round pick)
2002 - DE - Chase Pittman - Shreveport, La. (Transferred)
2006 - DE - Lamarr Houston - Colorado Springs, CO (33 career starts, All-Big 12, 2nd round pick)
2015 - WR - John Burt - WR - Tallahassee, FL (23 career starts)
2016 - DT - D'Andre Christmas-Giles - New Orleans, LA (played 19 career games/transferred)
2016 - WR - Collin Johnson - San Jose, CA (29 career starts, 5th round pick)
2018 - OT - Junior Angilau - Salt Lake City, UT (34 career starts, transferred)
2018 - QB - Cameron Rising - Newbury Park, CA (transferred)
2019 - WR - Marcus Washington - St. Louis, MO (7 career starts, transferred)
2019 - CB - Kenyatta Watson - Loganville, GA (played in 4 games, transferred)
2019 - LB - De'Gabriel Floyd - Westlake Village, CA (transferred)
2019 - DB - Chris Adimora - Lakewood, CA (10 career starts, transferred)
2019 - TE - Braydon Liebrock - TE - Chandler, AZ (played in 7 games)

Active

2021 - WR - Xavier Worthy - Fresno, CA (39 career starts, All-America, All-Big 12)
2022 - DE - J'Mond Tapp - Napoleonville, LA (played in 9 games)
2022 - QB - Maalik Murphy - Gardena, CA. (2 career starts/transferred)
2022 - DE - Justice Finkley - Trussville, AL (played in 26 games)

Started at least one game: 53.9%
Multi-year starter: 38.5%
All-Big 12: 15.4%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 23.1%
Played in the NFL: 23.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 61.5%

(5.8) Low Four Stars

2002 - DT - Lyle Sendlein - Scottsdale, AZ (24 career starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2005 - DE - Aaron Lewis - Albuquerque, NM (15 career starts)
2007 - TE - Blaine Irby - Ventura, CA (6 career starts)
2008 - DB - Nolan Brewster - Denver, CO (played in 30 games)
2009 - DT - Derek Johnson - Hoxie, AR (transferred)
2010 - Ath - DeMarco Cobbs - Tulsa, OK (6 career starts, played in 42 games)
2011 - DB - Josh Turner - Oklahoma City, OK (5 career starts, played in 46 games)
2012- OL - Donald Hawkins - Senatoba, MS (24 career starts, All-Big 12)
2012 - LB - Shiro Davis - Shreveport, LA (8 career starts, played in 44 games)
2012 - QB - Connor Brewer - Scottsdale, AZ (transferred)
2015 - QB - Kai Locksley - Baltimore, MD (transferred)
2015 - CB - Davante Davis - Miami, FL (26 career starts)
2015 - TE - Devonaire Clarington - Miami, FL (Didn't qualify)
2015 - LB - Cecil Cherry - Lakeland, FL (Transfered)
2015 - RB - Kirk Johnson - San Jose, CA (played in 21 games)
2017 - TE - Reese Leitao - Jenks, OK (played in 35 games)
2018 - QB - Casey Thompson - Newcastle, OK (10 starts, transferred)
2018 - LB - Ayodele Adeoye - Bradonton, FL (10 starts, played in 25 games)
2018 - OL - Mikey Grandy - San Mateo, CA (never played)
2019 - DE - Myron Warren - Many, LA (transferred)
2019 - DE- Jacoby Jones - El Dorado, KS (7 starts, played in 27 games)
2019 - RB - Derrian Brown -Buford, GA (never played)

Active

2021 - WR - Jaden Alexis - Coconut Creek, FL (transferred)
2021 - TE - Gunnar Helm - Greenwood Village, CO (10 starts, played in 39 games)
2021 - DB - Jamier Johnson - Pasadena, CA (1 start, transferred)
2022 - DB - Larry Turner-Gooden - Mission Hills, CA (transferred)
2022 - DE - Zac Swanson - Phoenix, AZ (played in 3 games)

Started at least one game: 55.0%
Multi-year starter: 25.0%
All-Big 12: 10.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 5.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

5.7 High 3 stars

2005 - RB - Michael Houston - Denver, CO (transferred)
2006 - DT - Ben Alexander - Anderson, SC (4 starts, played in 38 games)
2013 - OL - Desmond Harrison - Oak Ridge, NC (played in 7 games, played in the NFL)
2014 - DT - Poona Ford - Hilton Head, SC (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2014 - DB - Jermaine Roberts - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2014 - LB - Andrew Beck - Tampa, FL (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in the NFL)
2015 - WR - Gilbert Johnson - Atlanta, GA (didn't qualify)
2018 - DE - Daniel Carson - Independence, MO (transferred)
2018 - DE - Mike Williams - Baton Rouge, LA (transferred)
2019 - LB - Marcus Tillman - Orlando, FL (transferred)

Active

2021 - DE - Barryn Sorrell - New Orleans, LA (24 starts)
2022 - DT - Aaron Bryant - Southaven, MS (played in 9 games)

Started at least one game: 30.0%
Multi-year starter: 20.0%
All-Big 12: 20.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 30.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

(5.6) Mid 3 stars

2012 - DT - Brandon Moore - Scooba, MS (5 starts, transferred)
2014 - TE - Blake Whiteley - Yuma, AZ (transferred)
2015 - OL - Brandon Hodges - Scooba, MS (9 starts, transferred)
2016 - DT - Gerald Wilbon - Destrehan, LA (1 start, 36 games played)
2016 - DE - Malcolm Roach - Baton Rouge, LA (23 starts, 47 games played, played in NFL)
2019 - LB - Caleb Johnson - Fullerton, CA (transfer)

Active

2021 - 5.6 - Casey Cain - WR - New Orleans, LA (3 starts, transferred)

Started at least one game: 66.7%
Multi-year starter: 16.7%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 16.7%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 66.7%

(5.5) Low 3 stars

2010 - K - William Russ - Shreveport, LA (10 starts)
2013 - TE - Geoff Swaim - Oroville, CA (22 starts, drafted in 7th round, played in the NFL)
2014 - OL - Alex Anderson - New Orleans, LA (1 career start, 8 games played)
2014 - DT - Chris Nelson - Lakeland, FL (29 starts)
2015 - OL - Garrett Thomas - Many, LA (1 game played, transferred)
2016 - TE - Peyton Aucoin - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2017 - K - Joshua Rowland - Scooba, MS (11 starts)
2017 - WR - Jordan Pouncey - Winter Park, FL (played in 12 games, transferred)
2019 - OL - Willie Tyler -Council Bluffs, IA (transferred)

Started at least one game: 55.6%
Multi-year starter: 11.1%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 11.1%
Played in the NFL: 11.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 44.4%

(5.4) Two stars

2017 - DE - Jamari Chisholm - Miami, OK (played in 26 games)
2018 - K - Ryan Bujcevski - Melbourne, Australia (started 30 games)
2021 - K - Isaac Pearson - Melbourne, Australia (transferred)

Active

2022 - OL - Lance St. Louis - Gilbert, AZ (played in 24 games)

Started at least one game: 33.3%
Multi-year starter: 33.3%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 0.0%
Played in the NFL: 0.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 33.3%

No. 3 - Breaking down the Data by State ...

Arizona


2020 - 6.1 - RB - Bijan Robinson - Tucson, AZ (28 starts, All-Big 12, All-American, 1st round pick)
2019 - 6.0 - WR - Jake Smith - Scottsdale, AZ (6 career starts/transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - TE - Braydon Liebrock - TE - Chandler, AZ (played in 7 games)
2002 - 5.8 - DT - Lyle Sendlein - Scottsdale, AZ (24 career starts, All-Big 12, played in NFL)
2012 - 5.8 - QB - Connor Brewer - Scottsdale, AZ (transferred)
2014 - 5.6 - TE - Blake Whiteley - Yuma, AZ (transferred)

Started at least one game: 50.0%
Multi-year starter: 33.3%
All-Big 12: 33.3%
All-American: 16.7%
Drafted: 16.7%
Played in the NFL: 33.3%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 50.0%

California

2019 - 6.1 - WR - Bru McCoy - Santa Ana, Ca. (Transferred)
2016 - 5.9 - WR - Collin Johnson - San Jose, CA (29 career starts, 5th round pick, played in the NFL)
2018 - 5.9 - QB - Cameron Rising - Newbury Park, CA (transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - LB - De'Gabriel Floyd - Westlake Village, CA (transferred)
2019 - 5.9 - DB - Chris Adimora - Lakewood, CA (10 career starts, transferred)
2007 - 5.8 - TE - Blaine Irby - Ventura, CA (6 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - RB - Kirk Johnson - San Jose, CA (played in 21 games)
2018 - 5.8 - OL - Mikey Grandy - San Mateo, CA (never played)
2019 - 5.6 - LB - Caleb Johnson - Fullerton, CA (transfer)
2013 - 5.5 - TE - Geoff Swaim - Oroville, CA (22 starts, drafted in 7th round, played in the NFL)

Started at least one game: 40.0%
Multi-year starter: 20.0%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 20.0%
Played in the NFL: 20.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 60.0%

Florida

2015 - 5.9 - WR - John Burt - WR - Tallahassee, FL (23 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - CB - Davante Davis - Miami, FL (26 career starts)
2015 - 5.8 - TE - Devonaire Clarington - Miami, FL (Didn't qualify)
2015 - 5.8 - LB - Cecil Cherry - Lakeland, FL (Transfered)
2018 - 5.8 - LB - Ayodele Adeoye - Bradonton, FL (started 10 games, played in 25 games)
2014 - 5.7 - LB - Andrew Beck - Tampa, FL (30 starts, All-Big 12, played in the NFL)
2019 - 5.7 - LB - Marcus Tillman - Orlando, Fl. (transferred)
2014 - 5.5 - DT - Chris Nelson - Lakeland, FL (29 starts)
2017 - 5.5 - WR - Jordan Pouncey - Winter Park, FL (played in 12 games, transferred)

Started at least one game: 55.6%
Multi-year starter: 44.4%
All-Big 12: 11.1%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 0.0.%
Played in the NFL: 11.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 44.4%

Louisiana

2002 - 5.9 - DE - Chase Pittman - Shreveport, La. (Transferred)
2016 - 5.9 - DT - D'Andre Christmas-Giles - New Orleans, LA (played 19 career games/transferred)
2012 - 5.8 - LB - Shiro Davis - Shreveport, LA (8 career starts, played in 44 games)
2019 - 5.8 - DE - Myron Warren - Many, LA (transferred)
2014 - 5.7 - DB - Jermaine Roberts - New Orleans, LA (transferred)
2018 - 5.7 - DE - Mike Williams - Baton Rouge, LA (transferred)
2016 - 5.6 - DT - Gerald Wilbon - Destrehan, LA (1 start, 36 games played)
2016 - 5.6 - DE - Malcolm Roach - Baton Rouge, LA (23 starts, 47 games played, played in NFL)
2010 - 5.5 - K - William Russ - Shreveport, LA (10 starts)
2014 - 5.5 - OL - Alex Anderson - New Orleans, LA (1 career start, 8 games played)
2016 - 5.5 - TE - Peyton Aucoin - New Orleans, LA (transferred)

Started at least one game: 45.5%
Multi-year starter: 9.1%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0%
Drafted: 20.%
Played in the NFL: 9.1%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 54.5%

Oklahoma

2002 - 6.1 - DE - Bryan Pickryl - Jenks, OK (3 starts, medical retirement)
2010 - 5.8 - Ath - DeMarco Cobbs - Tulsa, OK (6 career starts, played in 42 games)
2011 - 5.8 - DB - Josh Turner - Oklahoma City, OK (5 career starts, played in 46 games)
2017 - 5.8 - TE - Reese Leitao - Jenks, OK (played in 35 games)
2018 - 5.8 - QB - Casey Thompson - Newcastle, OK (started 10 games, transferred)
2017 - 5.4 - DE - Jamari Chisholm - Miami, OK (played in 26 games)

Started at least one game: 66.7%
Multi-year starter: 0.0%
All-Big 12: 0.0%
All-American: 0.0%
Drafted: 0.0.%
Played in the NFL: 0.0%
Transferred/Didn't Finish His Career: 16.7%

No. 4 - K.J Lacey is Gonna Make Everyone Sweat ...

As it turns out, Texas 2025 quarterback commit K.J. Lacey didn't visit Ole Moss this weekend.

Whew, right? I guess.

The truth of the matter is that the Longhorns haven't had a quarterback commit quite like Lacey since Ryan Perrilloux back in the 2005 recruiting class.

Like Perrilloux, Lacey is an out-of-state commit. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is taking visits to other schools, including the forever dangerous in-state variety. Like Perrilloux, Lacey is saying all the right things.

It's not ideal to have the player you'd like to be serving as an unofficial Pied Piper to the 2025 recruiting class, but what are you going to do? The Longhorns knew when they accepted the commitment of Lacey that it was going to be like this.

I suppose the saving grace in all of this is that quarterback will probably never be an issue as long as Steve Sarkisian is the head coach and if we're being honest, there's a good chance that Arch Manning's career will take the Longhorns into the 2026 season at the very least.

Who the hell knows what everything looks like in 2027?

Therefore, just relax. Lacey's flirting with other schools is just going to be something that Texas will have to survive. If the Longhorns can't survive, Sarkisian will just go get another badass.

No. 5 - Random recruiting thought that I've had a lot this week ...

It's a little curious to see that the Longhorns haven't been as active as other schools they are competing against in-state or across the country in terms of scheduling multiple Junior Day/Recruiting events in the month of January.

We all know that Sark and his staff like to put the foot on the gas in the spring and summer, so I'm certainly not yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater, it's just something that's hard not to think about when very few of the state's elite of the elite made their way to the Texas campus this month, which means at least four months will have passed for most of the super blue-chip in-state prospects since they'll have visited Austin by the time the dead period ends in early March.

That being said, I might be Mr. Worrier around the Orangebloods universe, and it is important to note that Sarkisian doesn't seem to give a damn. Considering he's having a better last 12 months than most of us outside of @Travis Galey's wife, I'll easily give him the benefit of the doubt. Yet, I'm not the type that likes to point things out after the fact when I'm thinking them in real-time, so ... just know I've thought that more urgency could have existed this month in recruiting.

Now I'll shut up.

No. 6 - Does it really matter who starts at running back?

One of the most popular questions I've received in the last few weeks has centered on whether I believe Jaydon Blue will overtake CJ Baxter for the starting running back position and I find myself simply not all that bothered by it all.

Following the injury to Jonathon Brooks, I thought Sarkisian did a great job of mixing the talents of Blue and Baxter together. They really do make a great 1-2 punch... a little lightning and thunder duo, if you will.

If both of those players receive roughly 40% of the running game reps and the other 20% is split among Savion Redd, Tre Wisner, Christian Clark and Jerrick Gibson, I don't really see that there's anything to worry about. Same if it's a 50/30 split, either way. It's really hard to imagine a more extreme split than 50-30, barring injuries.

I know no one will listen to me, but of all the things to focus on during the spring and summer, this is down my list at the moment.

No. 7 – About Rodney Terry …

It's very, very possible that everyone has kind of overreacted in the last few months over the job performance of first-year head coach Rodney Terry.

Obviously, what happens in March will define how we remember this season, just as it defined whether he got the job in the first place last year, but the truth of the matter is that his team has been playing some pretty damn good basketball since that whole "Horns Down" fiasco a few weeks ago. Only a ridiculously hot-shooting BYU in Provo and an overtime heartbreaker against top-5 Houston has the Longhorns from being undefeated in their last five games against ranked teams.

This team plays hard. It has a couple of players who can carry it in big games, including perhaps the most lethal scorer in clutch play that the Longhorns have had since Kevin Durant. Yeah ... I said that.

Throw in the fact that recruiting is going well and ... maybe ... just maybe ... Terry is doing kind of well?

No. 8 – BUY or SELL …

giphy.gif




(Buy) The quarterback battle for the first-team slot is going to be incredibly competitive, but I'm in. Same with Banks.



(Sell) I don't think recruiting the edge position has been a big issue lately when you consider Texas landing five-star Collin Simmons, UTSA star Trey Moore and both Ethan Burke/Colton Vasek. The defensive tackle position is the real recruiting challenge. I'll be honest ... I'm not sure what to think about in-state recruiting, but besting 3 of the top 8 might be a tough chore.



(Sell) What does get it right even mean?



(Buy) No one will ever bring it up again.



(Buy) I'm president of the Fan Club.



(Sell) I'm going to wait until I see it, first.



(Sell) I don't know what's different about 2025 than 2024.



(Sell) I'm expecting a very quiet day.



exactly GIF




(Sell) Isaiah Bond could very well surpass Worthy's yards.



(Buy) Yes, he could stand to gain strength to his frame after shedding his bad weight a year ago and kind of turning himself into a middleweight. Maybe he can get to super middleweight.

No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …

... I just said no to the NFL Pro Bowl and the NHL all-star games. Just couldn't force myself to care.

... Give me Kansas City over the Niners. I'm done doubting Patrick Mahomes.

... As a Cowboys fan, I'm not worried about Dan Quinn in Washington at all.

... Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Pete Thamel, NFL scouts are not going completely nuts over any quarterback in the 2025 draft class yet, including Ewers. "There's no sure-thing sophomore quarterback," one scout said. "There's always a riser or a one-year wonder, so it may not be that bad."

... Please never speak of the Liverpool/Arsenal game ever again. I lived it once ... that's enough.

... Kylian Mbappe going to Real Madrid is the least surprising headline ever. Where the hell else was he going to go?

... I wanna party with Michael Buble!


... Dogs are the best.


... You win some, you lose some ...


No. 10 - Top 10: Carl Weathers movies/television roles ...

Rest in peace, Apollo.

You had to know that I would pay tribute to one of my favorite actors after his passing this weekend. Let's just get right to it.

10. Good Times

One of his first acting roles.



9. Semi-Tough

Dreamer Tatum, y'all! It's been too long since I've seen this movie.

8. Happy Gilmore

Some will have this one ranked higher and for that ... I understand.

7. Action Jackson

There should have been a few more of these types of roles for him. On a side note, I'm still in lust for Vanity.

6. Arrested Development

How did he not win an Emmy?



5. Predator

Spoiler alert ... that was one hell of a harsh death.

4. Rocky

The sight of him coming out to the ring as George Washington still gets me.

3. Rocky III

Apollo and Rocky hugging in the ocean. Might need to re-think having this No. 3

2. Rocky IV

Yes, it's messed up that Apollo dies, but my goodness, he went absolutely HAM the entire time he was on screen.

1. Rocky II

The best acting that Weathers ever did in the Rocky series. His conflicted and tortured version of Apollo is the key to the entire movie.
1st?
 
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