Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (One more quarterback column)

[satterwm]

If I'm Ehlinger's dad I say no way he plays at least the next two games. The stakes are way too high for his future. In the larger context, the results of high school games are meaningless.

Unfortunately, Sam's Dad passed away. But I think he's looking down in agreement.

 

[satterwm]

Very good read.

 

[eaglehorn]

… Man City is having the same start to its season this year that it had a year ago, a year when I was taught just how long the EPL seasons are. There’s no reason to overreact to anything after three games. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

So you learned this last year but forgot it after week 1?

 

[rjenk]

According to CFN we will be in the top 25 on September 6th or 7th

 

[CPHornfan]

What time is the press conference tomorrow and will it be on LHN(sry)?

 

[California Horn]

"College football is all about special quarterbacks. When you have one, anything is possible and when you don’t, you usually spend way too much time trying to convince yourself it’s not about them when you know damn well that it is. As inadequate as the Texas offensive line was in 2009 (and man, it was inadequate), that truth didn’t matter too much with Colt McCoy leading the charge.

All of this is incredibly relevant because Strong isn’t likely to have one of these double-digit win seasons until he has himself a quarterback who carries around a wallet that reads “Bad MF”.

. . .

Trying to win the Big 12 without high level quarterback play is like taking the stairs up 30 stories when others are taking the elevator. All of the other elements in the program just aren’t going to mean much until the quarterback question has a real answer… and we’re not there yet."​

I think this confuses two concepts slightly. You need production from your QB, but you don't need an elite talent or an NFL early round pick type in the way Strong has (thus far) needed one.

Who are the recent Big 12 champion QBs?

2015 Baker Mayfield (likely mid to late round pick?)
2014 Bryce Petty (4th round pick)
2014 Trevone Boykin (undrafted)
2013 Bryce Petty
2012 Landry Jones (4th round pick)
2012 Collin Klein (undrafted)

The hope is that we will finally be one of those programs that can have a productive offense without needing an experienced early round NFL caliber talent in order to make it happen. Kind of like you see several of every single year in the Big 12.

If so, I think Buechele isn't less talented or less capable of being a Bad MFer than those names I listed above. The big caveats being that (a) we haven't seen it yet on the field and (b) he's a true freshman.

 

[unihorn]

Hope springs eternal in the human breast;
Man never is, but always to be blessed:
The soul, uneasy and confined from home,
Rests and expatiates in a life to come.

– Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man

 

[bkrichmd1]

As I sat lost in creative writing purgatory on Sunday afternoon, I found myself lost for a few moments while watching Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in his final tune-up before the regular season.

First, there was the intermediate ball over the middle for 19 yards. Then there was a deep out to Stefon Diggs for 22 yards. The very next play was a beautiful ball deep down the seam for a 27-yard touchdown to Kyle Rudolph.

Bang. Bang. Bang. Seven points.

When an NFL quarterback starts feeling it like that, it can be a special thing to behold, which is why NFL teams would sell souls to the devil in an effort to get one who can do these special things consistently.

Once upon a time, Bridgewater belonged to Charlie Strong and together they produced the two best seasons Strong has ever known as a head coach. For all of the amazing evaluating and development that Strong has been responsible for during his time at Louisville, his season records without Bridgewater’s two best seasons are 7-6, 7-6, 6-7 and 5-7.

Just like Mack Brown will one day be a member of the College Football Hall of Fame because he coached Vince Young, Strong is here in Austin making five million a year because Bridgewater was a special college quarterback capable of producing consistent special play.

College football is all about special quarterbacks. When you have one, anything is possible and when you don’t, you usually spend way too much time trying to convince yourself it’s not about them when you know damn well that it is. As inadequate as the Texas offensive line was in 2009 (and man, it was inadequate), that truth didn’t matter too much with Colt McCoy leading the charge.

All of this is incredibly relevant because Strong isn’t likely to have one of these double-digit win seasons until he has himself a quarterback who carries around a wallet that reads “Bad MF”.

As far as I can tell, the only coach in America that can compete for titles without that kind of quarterback is Nick Saban and his wife isn’t walking through that door to go house hunting any time soon.

Lost in the agony of the current quarterback discussion in Austin over who should start is the reality that top-shelf quarterback play won’t be available this season, which puts a glass ceiling on what is possible for this team. Period.

The single best case for throwing caution into the wind and starting Shane Buechele is that he potentially gets you a step closer towards the level needed, even if his playing in 2016 is nothing more than testing ground needed before he can take a real step forward in 2017. Otherwise, he might have to burn 2017 to learn the things he’ll need to learn before he’s of championship quality. At some point, the investment needs to be made.

Trying to win the Big 12 without high level quarterback play is like taking the stairs up 30 stories when others are taking the elevator. All of the other elements in the program just aren’t going to mean much until the quarterback question has a real answer… and we’re not there yet.

No. 2– One last plea for Buechele ...

It’s easy for me to say because it’s not my backside on the line, but Charlie Strong needs to make his quarterback decision based on the best interests of the program and not necessarily the best interests of this season because the two do not automatically go hand in hand.

What this program needs is an investment into the quarterback developing process that will speed up the ability to find the player that eventually can lead this team to something notable. What it doesn’t need is a band-aid on the position that bears no long-term advantage or gain for the overall future of the program, but potentially only lessons the amount of pain in a game one loss.

Look, I’m rooting for Tyrone Swoopes to have a monster season, so he can serve a slice of up-yours cake to almost every Longhorns fan on the planet, but he is not the future of the program.

Hell, I don’t even know that Buechele is the special player at the position that the Longhorns need, but the 2017 season has a chance to be a real launching pad for the program and it’s better to learn as many answers now as possible before having to learn them on the fly for a team that you’d like to see hit the ground running.

If you’re Strong, you’ve got one last piece of political currency and the only way you can spend it is by going with the unknown at quarterback.

Go with youth at quarterback and let the kids grow up together as one.

No. 3– If the light switch ever comes on ...

Redshirt freshman Kai Locksley is officially a wide receiver, whether he wants for it to be so or not, which means we’ve reached a crossroads in his career in Austin.

There have been rumblings behind the scenes that the coaches have been frustrated with Locksley’s commitment to each level of responsibility he owns as a Texas football player and now he’s been moved to a position where the coaches have approximately 243 players on scholarship.

It’s time to sink or swim.

As a receiver, I view Locksley as a guy with as much natural ability at the position as anyone in the program. We’re talking about a guy with Sunday upside if he puts all of it together and maximizes his potential. In a year from now, he could potentially be a game-breaker for this team.

However, if his work habits remain the same and the switch that leads to his reaching his potential isn’t turned on, my guess is that he won’t be here in six months. With so many receivers fighting for reps, the coaches aren’t going to lose an ounce of sleep if he ends up in Transferland.

No. 4 – Take care of yourself, Sam ...

If you missed it over the weekend, future Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger left it all on the field in Austin Westlake’s 32-29 win over state power Katy on Friday night.

He made plays with his arm and legs, seemingly willing the Chaps to victory against a program that hadn’t lost a game since 2014, but in doing so he paid a price. At times during the game, his John Wayne style of play was symbolized by his ability to gut through a noticeable limp throughout the game.

To hear that he came out of the game with injuries to both of his knees, but still has ideas of playing as soon as possible reminded me of another former Austin-area quarterback that eventually played a few downs at the University of Texas - Garrett Gilbert.

After needing shoulder surgery following his junior season, Gilbert returned to the field for Lake Travis five months later and I’ve always felt like he never quite looked like himself during his undefeated state-title winning senior season. Maybe he really was 100 percent, but it seemed like he really labored to throw the football that year and I was always of the opinion that it was in his best long-term interests to slow his return to the field.

Eight years later, I have the same thoughts with Ehlinger as he tries to heal two separate knee injuries on the fly in the middle of his senior season. It’s a hell of a thing to tell a kid to sit on the sidelines when a state title run during your senior year in high school means so much, but Ehlinger has a future beyond this season that he needs to protect.

My instincts tell me that the kid will do everything he can to get on the field as soon as he can, like Gilbert, because he’s a competitor and a leader that wants to be there for his teammates.

I get that. You get that. I think we all get that.

That being said, I vote for cautious decision-making that leans towards the back end of any medical analysis. If the doctors tell him to take 2-4 weeks, take four weeks, maybe five. If it’s 6-8 weeks, well, I’d say take the eight. It’ll be hard as hell for him to watch his teammates play without him, but his long-term health has to rank as the most important piece of the discussions that will take place in the coming weeks.

Maybe I’m out of place on this, but I’ve been in the business long enough to have seen kids give pieces of themselves to high school football that cost them later in life and it’s hard not to think about that when we’re talking about a young man that just finished his first game of the season with two banged up knees.

Take care of yourself, Sam. It’s ok to put yourself first.

No. 5– Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...

… If Charlie doesn’t name his starting quarterback on Monday, he’s just trolling all of us very well. In advance, well done, Charlie.

… Speaking of Monday, I’m curious as to how many times we’ll see “or” on the release of the first depth chart?

… As I think back, I think the worst part of this month’s camp for Texas is that not a single defensive lineman emerged as a player to watch because of his on-fire play. It feels like a rather ominous note.

… How many points will be needed to win against the Irish? I’m going to say 27. If the number goes above 30, that’s likely a big problem for Texas.

… Hello, Jaxon Shipley!

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No. 6 – Buy or sell …

BUY or SELL: I'm hearing due to political pressure Texas will have no choice but to urge votes for UH into the B12, but the cost will be an extension to 2030 or 32. Buy or sell … Texas looks to its own future, resists the political pressure & either votes for BYU & UC or votes no expansion?

(Buy) There’s no way in hell Texas is expanding its grant of rights beyond 2024. It’ll join a new conference before it concedes it’s long-term future to the Big 12 at this point.

BUY or SELL: The combined Texas QB rating against ND will be over 125?

(Buy) I don’t know that it’ll be much higher, but I go with slightly higher.

BUY or SELL: Texas gets in the top 25 at any point this year? Doesn't meant they stay there, just that they break the T25 at some point....

(Sell) It might be in the receiving votes section at various stages of the season, but I’m not sure we’ll see more than that.

BUY or SELL: If the Texas season opener was against Rice or North Texas State, Buechele would be named the starter?

(Buy) Yeah, I’ll go along with that.

BUY or SELL: Kent Perkins is a legit draft prospect by season's end?

(Sell) I think he’s a legit draft prospect right now.

BUY or SELL: By the middle of the season, the Longhorns will have pulled off at least one upset and turn into the "oh crap, not them!" ballsack-punting, heart-breaking, soul-eating team that, win or lose, no one wants to deal with?

(Buy) Yeah, I’ll go along with that.

BUY or SELL: When he leaves UT, Malik Jefferson will have had a better collegiate career than Derrick Johnson?

(Sell) How do you have a better college career than Derrick Johnson?

BUY or SELL: Tyrone Swoopes ends up with more rushing yards than Kirk Johnson?

(Buy) This one made me think for a few minutes.

BUY or SELL: Notre Dame's front 7 is able to get the better of Texas' OL and stymie the Texas run game much like it did in 2015?

(Buy) This group has done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt yet and it hasn’t played as much together in the pre-season as you’d like.

BUY or SELL: The Sooners are overrated once again this preseason, just like every preseason?

(Sell) I think the Sooners are ranked about right.

BUY or SELL: Nick Saban would have a record better than 11-14 if he was hired instead of Charlie?

(Buy) We’re talking about the greatest college football coach of all time.

BUY or SELL: The Aggies beat UCLA and win two out of four from Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Ole Miss. Maybe three out of four?

(Sell) Kevin Sumlin will not survive this season, a prediction I made three years ago.

No. 7 – The end of an era, the beginning of a new one?

You know that thing I wrote about Sam Ehlinger a few sections ago?

Well, I pretty much think the same thing about Tony Romo in the aftermath of him breaking a bone in his back on the third play of a preseason game against Seattle last Thursday night.

As much as I’m a fan of Romo and would love for him to have another five peak years with the Cowboys, the truth of the matter is that he’s 36 years old and I’m starting to worry about him. His body was never meant to last 10+ seasons as a quarterback in the NFL and we’re watching it break down in front of our very eyes.

Romo has two sons under the age of five and I want him to be walking straight when they’re teenagers. It’s as simple as that. I want him to get out of the game before it permanently breaks him. I don’t want to see Dallas win so badly that I need to watch him broken in half in the process.

My guess is that Romo won’t be able to give the game up as easily as I’ve given it up for him. The thirst for a Super Bowl and a chance to reframe his legacy is such that we’re likely not done with watching the physical breakdown take place.

Considering the low expectations going into this season, knowing that Romo would never last 16 games, I find myself in a position of being more interested in watching a season with Dak Prescott at quarterback, knowing that he won’t perform as well as a healthy Romo, but potentially allowing us a peek into the window of a different kind of future.

I don’t know if this is the beginning of the Prescott era, but it does feel like the end of the Romo era, and if that means Romo can lead a normal life in 20 years because of it, I’m completely ok with that.

No. 8 – Confessions of a confused fantasy football owner …

Draft night is two nights away and I still can’t decide which direction to go in with the No. 5 pick in a 12-team standard league.

If Julio Jones or Odell Beckham make it that far, it’s a slam-dunk decision, right?

Have I fallen too in love with Zeke Elliott after that performance against Seattle?

If the first four picks are Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, Beckham and Jones, do I have to go running back at that point?

Do I trust my gut that says DeAndre Hopkins is going to have the best fantasy season of any receiver in fantasy this season?

Why am I overthinking this?

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… I have to be feeling pretty good if I’m a Houston Texans fan after that destruction of the Cardinals on Sunday. I can’t wait to see what Brock Osweiler has up his sleeves.

… Hello, Melvin Gordon! You’re becoming a more tasty fantasy option by the second.

… So, where does Dak Prescott go in a 17-round keeper league? He could be an interesting guy to take a flyer on late.

... I believe in the Rally Mantis in Kansas City.

… Nice job, New York Little League baseball. Way to bring it home.

… Paige Van Zant landed one of the top knockouts of the year in the UFC this weekend.

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… Man City is having the same start to its season this year that it had a year ago, a year when I was taught just how long the EPL seasons are. There’s no reason to overreact to anything after three games. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

… If I’m Manchester United, Marcus Rashford has to be on the pitch every game. Let’s not make this rocket science, Jose.

… One last tweet. I love Joel Embiid.

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No. 10 - And finally …

We did it, America. The last weekend without a full slate of football is over. Breathe easy.

Just a quick question, did you take Welbutrin or Prozac after you wrote that? Wow, talking about a depressing read.

 

[rtsland]

Obviously QB play gives teams the edge to compete for titles, but consistent depth and maturity along the LOS is how programs stay consistently good. That's how teams manage 9-3 in their bad years. You can't count on having Joe Montana at the helm year in and year out, but you can build a team that's pretty tough even if the QB isn't great.

 

[bkrichmd1]

"College football is all about special quarterbacks. When you have one, anything is possible and when you don’t, you usually spend way too much time trying to convince yourself it’s not about them when you know damn well that it is. As inadequate as the Texas offensive line was in 2009 (and man, it was inadequate), that truth didn’t matter too much with Colt McCoy leading the charge.

All of this is incredibly relevant because Strong isn’t likely to have one of these double-digit win seasons until he has himself a quarterback who carries around a wallet that reads “Bad MF”.

. . .

Trying to win the Big 12 without high level quarterback play is like taking the stairs up 30 stories when others are taking the elevator. All of the other elements in the program just aren’t going to mean much until the quarterback question has a real answer… and we’re not there yet."​

I think this confuses two concepts slightly. You need production from your QB, but you don't need an elite talent or an NFL early round pick type in the way Strong has (thus far) needed one.

Who are the recent Big 12 champion QBs?

2015 Baker Mayfield (likely mid to late round pick?)
2014 Bryce Petty (4th round pick)
2014 Trevone Boykin (undrafted)
2013 Bryce Petty
2012 Landry Jones (4th round pick)
2012 Collin Klein (undrafted)

The hope is that we will finally be one of those programs that can have a productive offense without needing an experienced early round NFL caliber talent in order to make it happen. Kind of like you see several of every single year in the Big 12.

If so, I think Buechele isn't less talented or less capable of being a Bad MFer than those names I listed above. The big caveats being that (a) we haven't seen it yet on the field and (b) he's a true freshman.

This has kinda been my point here as well. I realize were getting ready to play a very good team, but after that we some very win-able games, and who know we could pull off an upset against ND. Herbie and a few others kinda like our chances. So lets talk about about QB's. Jared Goff the #1 draft pick last year led Cal to a 8-5 season. A 8-5 Season! It's not always about QB, just ask McCarren, Mckelvoy at Bama. Sure a Colt McCoy in year 3 can give you wins when you're team is lacking but lets just play the season. We have a new OC and several new players.

 

[Baguette]

Great, spot-on analysis Ketch, particularly #1 & 2. Strong's recurring significant lapses in judgment are piling up. I think after this season it'll be painfully obvious to most that it'll be time for him to move on. Question is, will the BOR?

 

[StudRunner1]

I know everyone is looking at everything as facing reality. I am not seeing the faith of the faithful. I agree that Buechele should play this season in order to be the best for next year, but I also think that this team can win 8 games or more. I also see Charlie here in 2017.

 

[Bottomsuppizza]

Nice write up, Ketch! Spot on with everything..

Sounds like we are in for another beat down from ND.

 

[Keystone55]

If I'm Ehlinger's dad I say no way he plays at least the next two games. The stakes are way too high for his future. In the larger context, the results of high school games are meaningless.

Do you not know his Dad is deceased?

 

[Keystone55]

I've never seen the mods seemingly contradict themselves as much as they have this particular summer.

Very hard to get a true read on ANYTHING regarding this year's football team. I'm just glad the season starts soon so my knee jerk "wtf" thoughts to all these takes can stop.

Yeah, so much making statements, then immediately waffling like Tom Grieve.

 

[40Acres74]

Scary thought Ketch w/your Garret Gilbert reference. I hope the best for Sam in a speedy FULL recovery. We're going to need him on the 40.

I also agree with your QB thoughts - go w/the unknown youth and let him grow. This season's W/L's isn't likely going to flux that much w/Swoopes or Shane. He's going to play, so a R/S is out of the question. May as well throw him into the fire and let him grow up fast.

 

[CenTex Horn]

Do you not know his Dad is deceased?

It seems pretty obvious, Captain, that he either knew, but had forgotten, or he never knew at all.

 

[golfpr3145]

Nice stuff Ketch. I agree with you on Charlie but I think maybe part of his not having that great of a record as head coach. other than the one year, was his choice of his assistants. He insisted on bringing Watson as his OC when he was hired so that tells me a lot. At least he has a big upgrade in that department now and maybe he has learned a couple of things from that mistake. Again thanks for the good read.

 

[El Che Guevara]

You want Marcus Rashford and take who out?

Not Ibrahimovic, Not Rooney, Not Mata, Not Martial

Rashford's goal was essentially a tap in after a great play by Rooney

Personally, I'd rather see more Memphis Depay, Mhritkabahan (clear misspell), or Ander Herrera.

 

[H8Toujohn]

Ketch gets it. With one week left and a gun to your head I want to say everyone leans to this way of thinking.

Although we've heard positive things about Swoopes from teammates, the team appears to gravitate towards Buechele naturally. He is going to the QB that his fellow teammates run through a brick wall for. He will be the QB that will his OL will beat someone's ass for an ugly facemask penalty or cheap shot. He will be the QB up in the late hours of the night studying the playbook and getting reps in with his WR's.

He will be thee man.

Yes he will. Doesn't matter who takes the first snap come Sunday. Charlie will make him the starter sooner rather than later.

 

[Juarez Your Problem]

Yes he will. Doesn't matter who takes the first snap come Sunday. Charlie will make him the starter sooner rather than later.

Yep it's only a matter of time.

 

[LonghornsLegend]

… As I think back, I think the worst part of this month’s camp for Texas is that not a single defensive lineman emerged as a player to watch because of his on-fire play. It feels like a rather ominous note.

Really Ketch? But did you expect this before camp started? We don't have that type of player here at all and if we do he's a true freshman. Why would the worst part of camp be something that was unrealistic to begin with? We have at best good players (the ones who aren't freshman) that can be disruptive and that's about their ceiling. That's like saying the worst part of camp was neither QB turned into a superstar.

I think Elliot and Christmas can be, maybe even will be by year 2. But expecting it from anyone seems kind of pointless because you knew it wasn't gonna happen this year.

 

[FrancoBevo]

Maybe, it's possible, the best way to ensure the development of Buechele is to NOT throw him to the wolves but to bring him along piece by piece. I know we're all expert D1college developers on this board, but perhaps the OC, Gilbert, knows a thing or two as well.

 

[RLong68]

Let's not pretend that the best QB choice for this season is not the same as the best choice for the future.

 

[Horde56]

If Perrin and Fenves came to Charlie and said "We'll guarantee you another year if you start Buchele this year", would he do it? One the one hand we have a lot of people saying Charlie has to win this year or he's out. Now Ketch is saying that he needs to look beyond winning this year and consider the long-term health of the program.

 

[TheAngryHammer]

So, is 7 Charlie's magic number?

 

[Rex Manning]

I knows it's preseason and small sample size, but Brock hasn't really looked Hops way much. Whether by design to avoid unnecessary injury or him just reading what the defense gives him. He won't have close to the year he did last year due to the weapons around him.

 

[Mddwg]

So is NEW BEVO still going to do the coin toss on Sunday!?!

 

[styrbjorn]

Regarding Romo - I'm with you. Not a Cowboy fan but I do like and respect what Romo has done for a franchise that frankly has failed to put a good team around him most years (thanks Jerrah).

My immediate thought on seeing that play was that Dak and Zeke are the future of the franchise (sort of like Troy and Emmitt were, long ago) and despite the growing pains that it will involve, Dallas would be well served to start the youth movement soon rather than have Tony ruin his health for another mediocre season or three.

 

[Keystone55]

It seems pretty obvious, Captain, that he either knew, but had forgotten, or he never knew at all.

Buzz off, captain. I do not need a lecture from you.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum @Suchomel @Alex Dunlap

Are Kirk Johnson and Paul Boyette healthy and ready to go for ND?

It kind of remains to be seen.

 

[Ketchum]

I have Hopkins (4th round keeper) and I'm afraid that with a slimmed down and reportedly focused Jalen Strong, Will Fuller, and Braxton Miller in the mix his totals will actually go down.
Great for the Texans, bad for my FF team.

Seriously considering putting him out for trade to see what he may bring

Don't do it. He's playing for a contract.

 

[Ketchum]

Nothing on the clown from San Fran?

lulz. No way.

 

[Ketchum]

I think Strong has purposely kept the media away from the team for the most part, so that they can focus on the upcoming season. I saw an interview with a former Louisville player and he said that Strong did the same thing the year before they went 11-2.

I think it's partly protecting his young team, and part building an environment of "us against the world".

Personally, I love it and can't wait for Sunday.

Having Bridgewater had more to do with that 11-2 than ay method with the media.

 

[Ketchum]

Mou is just fine. You need to worry about Klopp et al.

k