Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Sam Ehlinger is playing historically good football...)

Discussion in 'Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend Archive' started by Ketchum, Nov 11, 2018.

  1. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Just a couple of weeks ago, yours truly received more than a few side-eyes from Orangebloods members for stating that if the Longhorns were going to emerge from the ashes of the Oklahoma State loss with a run that would lead them to the Big 12 Championship game, sophomore quarterback Sam Ehlinger would need to raise his level of play.

    Some of you were offended, believing that it was some sort of statement against Ehlinger's play on the season.

    My contention was that this team’s needs from Ehlinger had more to do with the competition that loomed than it did anything else. With a defense that struggles against quarterbacks that aren't terrible, anything short of all-America play would leave Texas short of its biggest team goal. Fair or not, the pathway to the Big 12 Championship requires greatness from Ehlinger and not just improved play from a year ago.

    Two weeks later, Ehlinger has not only accepted the challenge in delivering the two best games of his career in consecutive weeks, but it's taken every single play he's made to give Texas a chance to win in each of the last two games. Basically, this team goes as Big Sam goes.

    How good has he been in the last two weeks?

    Well, in putting together a 179.5 efficiency rating against West Virginia and a 180.6 rating against Texas Tech, Ehlinger did something (back to back games of 175+ ratings) that Colt McCoy (vs.Texas A&M and vs. Ohio State in 2008) and Vince Young (at Baylor and vs. Kansas in 2005) were able to do only once each in their respective careers.

    Chris Simms never pulled it off (although he was close). Major Applewhite never did it, either.

    Basically, in the modern history of the program, back-to-back passing games similar to the ones Ehlinger just had has happened only two other times in the modern history of the program, both times by the two best quarterbacks in the history of the program.

    Texas has needed Ehlinger to step up his level of play to keep it in the Big 12 title race and he's more than answered the bell.

    Now he just needs to keep it up.

    No. 2 - Ok. Cool. Hook'em ...

    So, the wife-beating former friend of Tom Herman was back on social media on Sunday with an assortment of arrows aimed at Herman.

    A few thoughts on the matter...

    a. Zach Smith is an abuser who is spiraling out of control and can't control his emotions or urges. Personally, I view him as a very dangerous person, as he checks all of the boxes that are usually checked when someone does something really bad. Whatever measures need to be taken to ensure his ex-wife and kids are safe must be taken.

    b. Tom Herman comes off looking like a bad husband in all of this, but everything that I know about his relationship with his wife is that they are very honest with each other and have crossed the bridges that would need to be crossed in order to maintain a happy relationship. As it relates to the allegations related to their personal business, I find none of it to be any of our business.

    c. Let's be clear about something... Herman was a bit of a wildcat in his assistant coaching days and maturation as a husband and as a man is something he's worked on as he's departed his 30s and entered his 40s. In speaking to a senior UT official a few months ago about this, the message I received was that these events were before he became a head coach and not something Texas would be compelled to respond to.

    d. As is almost always the case, the victim here is a woman. Michelle Herman deserves our compassion and respect for her privacy. All she tried to do was be a good friend to a woman being abused and now her personal business has been put on the clothesline for everyone to see. She was viewed as nothing more than collateral damage by Smith. F that, dude.

    e. I think @Anwar Richardson said it best.



    No. 3 - Fulfilling a Request ...

    After watching Texas Tech back-up quarterback Jett Duffey light up the Longhorns to the tune of 444 yards passing, long-time Orangebloods poster @Mi Rey requested that someone take a look at the in-game numbers posted by all 10 opposing quarterbacks on the Texas schedule vs. the overall numbers that those quarterbacks have posted this season.

    His wish is my command.

    * Kaseem Hill (Maryland) - Season (115.7), vs. Texas (134.3) and vs. Everyone Else (111.9)

    * Luke Skipper (Tulsa): Season (115.5), vs. Texas (100.6) and vs. Everyone Else (112.2)

    * J.T. Daniels (USC): Season (124.5), vs. Texas (114.7) and vs. Everyone Else (126.6)

    * Shawn Robinson (TCU): Season (122.4), vs. Texas (113.3) and vs. Everyone Else (124.0)

    * Skyler Thompson (Kansas State): Season (116.8), vs. Texas (89.2) and vs. Everyone Else (120.5)

    * Kyler Murray (Oklahoma): Season (212.9), vs. Texas (214.4) and vs. Everyone Else (212.7)

    * Charlie Brewer (Baylor): Season (134.3), vs. Texas (106.3) and vs. Everyone Else (138.6)

    * Taylor Cornelius (Oklahoma State): Season (151.6), vs. Texas (176.1) and vs. Everyone Else (149.0)

    * Will Grier (West Virginia): Season (180.7), vs. Texas (159.4) and vs. Everyone Else (184.1)

    * Jett Duffey (Texas Tech): Season (150.7), vs. Texas (181.9) and vs. Everyone Else (132.3)

    A few observations...

    * Texas has actually forced six of the 10 starting quarterbacks it has faced this season to play below their overall season mark. Consider me a bit surprised.

    * Texas has played six quarterbacks this season with sub 135 season efficiency ratings, with five of those owning sub 125 season efficiency ratings. Jett Duffey would have made it seven quarterbacks with sub 135 passing efficiency ratings had it not been for his video game performance on Saturday night. Without diving deeper into the numbers, this feels like a historically poor group of quarterbacks that Texas has played against this season.

    * The four best quarterback performances of the season against the Longhorns have occurred in the last five games, which should not be a shocker to anyone paying attention to the season's slate of games.

    No. 4 - Compare and contrast ...

    [​IMG]

    Continuing our way through the class of 2015, we take a look at the offensive line position today, which featured seven linemen ranked as four-star prospects or higher and 10 of the state's top 50 overall prospects.

    Previous position breakdowns: Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Defensive ends and Defensive Backs

    Top In-State prospects

    1. Maea Teuhema (LSU) - Started 21 games as a freshman and sophomore for the Tigers before having to transfer to Southeastern Louisiana in 2017. Wasn't drafted by any NFL team after declaring for the draft early.

    2. Toby Weathersby (LSU) - Played in 31 games over three seasons for the Tigers before declaring early for the NFL draft. Was signed as an undrafted free agent and is currently on injured reserve for the Philadelphia Eagles.

    3. Conner Dyer (Texas Tech) - Was forced to retire from football in 2016 because of repeated injuries.

    4. Patrick Vahe (Texas) - Four-year starter for the Longhorns, but a player that has never been better than just solid.

    5. Keaton Sutherland (Texas A&M) - A three-year starter for the Aggies who has played both guard and tackle in his career.

    6. Connor Williams (Texas) - A three-year starter for the Longhorns at left tackle and a consensus all-American in 2016. Departed the Longhorn program after his third season and was drafted in the second round by the Dallas Cowboys.

    7. Trevor Elbert (Texas A&M) - Left A&M, went to a JUCO and is now aback-up at Central Florida.

    8. Bobby Evans (Oklahoma) - A multi-year starter at tackle for the Sooners as a junior who has emerged as one of the best linemen in the Big 12.

    9. Connor Lanfear (Texas A&M) - A multi-year starter for the Aggies who has had an up and down season in 2018, which includes losing his starting job.

    10. Zack Rogers (Arkansas) - Had been a part-time starter for the Hawgs at center at various points in his career, but retired from football heading into the 2018 season.

    Judgment?

    [​IMG]

    No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
    [​IMG]

    BUY or SELL: If you are Tom Herman, you are putting Todd Orlando on notice and telling him that he has the rest of the season to show improvement on defense or else, and at the same time you are assembling a list of potential replacements just in case it does not get any better or continues to get worse?

    (Sell) Tom Herman has a job at The University of Texas because of Todd Orlando. He went to a bowl game last year in his first season at Texas because of Todd Orlando. I'll be the first person to say that Orlando has to do a better job because I think he's lost coaching battles in half of the games this season, but he's not under any real pressure and Herman isn't going to treat someone that he owes so much to in such shabby fashion. I'm sure that the two will sit down in the off-season and have a serious conversation about what has to happen in 2019, but he's sure as hell not going to be put on notice for the rest of the season.

    BUY or SELL: Until our front seven recruiting matches our skill level recruiting, we'll just be aight?

    (Buy) The difference between true national championship contenders and the pretenders that flirt with playoff appearances is almost always in the talent and play up-front. In that respect, Texas probably isn't going to be a true national championship contender before the decade concludes.

    BUY or SELL: Does Sam set the all-time FBS attempts with no picks record this year?

    (Sell) I think the Cyclones get him once this weekend.

    BUY or SELL: LJ Humphrey wrapped up first-team all-Big 12 honors at WR last night?

    (Sell) Marquese Brown and Tylan Wallace are absolute locks to make the team, which likely leaves Humphrey battling Antoine Wesley for the third spot and Wesley's numbers for the season are considerably stronger. Be prepared to be pissed in a couple of weeks when the teams are announced.

    BUY or SELL: Texas needs to switch to a four man front on defense next year?

    (Buy) I think it's the only sensible thing to do when you look at the talent available. There are just too many tweeners on this roster along the defensive line to play a three-man front.

    BUY or SELL: No matter how talented your defensive backs are in the Big 12, the league is destined to continue having high scoring offense dominated games into the foreseeable future?

    (Buy) It's the Big 12 ... duh.

    BUY or SELL: Given the large number of seniors playing significant roles on this team and the likely departure of LJH and/or CJ, it is wrong to believe Texas will be better next season?

    (Sell) It remains to be seen what the tenor of next season will look like, but I don't see an issue with believing next year's team can be better. I just wouldn't assume it.

    BUY or SELL: If I put the over/under for career wins for Sam Ellinger at 28.5, you take the over?

    (Buy) With him sitting on 11 and with a chance to finish the season with anywhere between 12-15, he'd likely only need to average eight wins per year for the next two seasons to cross that number. I suppose the real question is whether he could emerge as an NFL prospect coming out of his junior season. It seems crazy to think about to a degree, but if he keeps playing like he has the last two weeks, it'll probably be a talking point 12 months from now.

    BUY or SELL: Given Sam’s current trajectory, he finishes as the third best QB in UT history behind Vince and Colt?

    (Sell) It's going to take some championship hardware to pass James Street and probably something more than just a Big 12 title. It's apples to oranges because of the comparisons between two different eras, but Street's resume shouldn't be underrated.

    BUY or SELL: OU Loses in Morgantown?


    (Buy) It's a baby buy, but it's a 60-40 buy at this moment.

    BUY or SELL: You can only have one of Collin Johnson or Lil'Jordan Humphrey next year, and you choose Humphrey?

    (Buy) He's a more versatile route runner and better after the catch.

    No. 6 – If I had a vote that mattered …

    (Nothing changed this week)

    1. Alabama
    2. Clemson
    3. Notre Dame
    4. Georgia
    5. Michigan
    6. Oklahoma
    7. West Virginia
    8. Ohio State
    9. Washington State
    10. LSU

    Heisman Top 3: Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray and Gardner Minshew.

    No. 7 - Good news and bad news ...



    If all you did was watch the final four minutes of regulation and the overtime period of Friday night's game between Texas and Arkansas, you probably came away feeling pretty entertained.

    If you happened to watch all 2+ hours of the game from start to finish, you likely wondered why you didn't have better things to do with your time on a Friday night.

    On one hand, the Longhorns won the game, which included an incredibly memorable three-point shot by Kerwin Roach. On the other hand, you still had a Texas team that seemed allergic to offense, something you'd hope wouldn't be an issue in Shaka Smart's fourth season in Austin.

    For now, I'm going to cut this team some slack for the following reasons:

    a. Matt Coleman was awful and I don't think he'll be awful on most nights this season.

    b. It was Roach's first game of the season and it took some time to settle in, but once he did, he looked promising.

    c. I like me some Courtney Ramey.

    d. Kamaka Hepa and Jaxson Hayes will have much better nights in the near future.

    That's not to say that I have it in me to watch this team play on Monday night against Louisiana-Monroe, but I will cut it some slack.

    No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

    ... Iowa State not having star running back David Montgomery for the first half this weekend is a major storyline to Saturday's game. It might just prove to be the difference in the game.

    ... Tua Tagovailoa was kind of mortal this weekend. Who knew?

    ... Clemson naming Trevor Lawrence as its starting quarterback was a season-saving/making decision in retrospect. It feels like we're heading for a Tagovailoa/Lawrence showdown in the national title game.

    ... Gary Patterson has the biggest and most challenging off-season of his career in front of him in 2019. That is not a good football team that he is currently in charge of.

    ... I'm not sure Drew Brees has ever been better than he currently is right now. With all due respect to his Super Bowl team, I'm also not sure he's ever been on a better team.

    ... I'm starting to believe in Marcus Mariota. Man, he's had himself a hell of a last six days.

    ... The Patriots should never call a pass play that calls for Tom Brady to catch a pass again.

    ... Is Melvin Gordon the most underrated player in the NFL? It sure feels like he might be.

    ... I'm still in a little bit of shock that Philadelphia pulled the string on the Jimmy Butler trade, but any time you can pass along two very good role players for a two-time running All-NBA player, who is one of the best two-way players in the sport, you do it. The Sixers still need to make a couple of moves in the next couple of months to shore up a couple of existing holes and depth issues following the trade, but by the time May rolls around, I'm not sure anyone in the East will want a piece of this team.

    ... Speaking of the Sixers...



    ... What was everyone's favorite moment of the Carmelo Anthony era in Houston?

    ... Joe Mauer retired this weekend after a 15-year career in Major League Baseball with the Twins and it's hard for me not to wonder what might have happened if he had played college football with Florida State. There are a lot of people that feel like his decision to play baseball was the first step in Bobby Bowden's career crashing in that last decade in Tallahassee.

    ... Man City has to cool off eventually.... right?

    No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Queen Songs ...

    [​IMG]

    After catching Bohemian Rhapsody earlier this week (solid, fun movie that loses some points for historical inaccuracy), it was hard not to put together some sort of Freddie Mercury list. In fact, it was impossible, so here ya go.

    10. Spread Your Wings
    9. The Great Pretender
    8. Under Pressure
    7. Fat Bottomed Girls
    6. Somebody to Love
    5. Get Down, Make Love
    4. Another One Bites the Dust
    3. We Will Rock You
    2. We Are The Champions
    1. Bohemian Rhapsody

    No. 10 – And Finally...

    This left me absolutely speechless. It's like a scene out of The Walking Dead.

     
  2. khwilli1

    khwilli1 Well-Known Member
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  3. Buck81

    Buck81 Well-Known Member
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  4. keebydog

    keebydog Member
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    8:27pm and OU still sucks.
     
  5. clarence simmons

    clarence simmons Well-Known Member
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  6. EdSimmonsPants

    EdSimmonsPants OrangeBloods Platinum Circle Member
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    This. We should all bookmark this post, because come every Spring and every Fall there will be serious B/S questions about whether "this is the year." And the answer will be no it isn't until we have as many options up front as we appear to have in the WR and DB rooms.
     
  7. MB-HORNS

    MB-HORNS SUPERFAN
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    Yep, I think Texas will win a Big 12 championships in the next two years but it just feels like we're several recruiting classes away from competing on the big stage.
     
    cordpetee, Cruz50, TexaStrong and 3 others like this.
  8. magnahorn

    magnahorn never wrong; sometimes misreinterpreted.
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    California has a lot of beautiful places, but man do they have their issues to deal with too. Forest fires, mud slides, avalanches, earthquakes, water shortages, smog, rampant liberalism and other Californians just to name a few.
     
  9. Horny Gambler

    Horny Gambler Card Player, Gambler, Scoundrel
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    Ok. Cool
    Hook em!
     
  10. collinhookem18

    collinhookem18 Well-Known Member
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    We’re gonna have to start getting way better lineman on both sides obviously
     
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  11. MB-HORNS

    MB-HORNS SUPERFAN
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    We have several in the program that just need to grow and get developed. Need more for depth....
     
  12. bkennedy404

    bkennedy404 Well-Known Member
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    I guess some light is shed on the red flag days, assuming CTH provided full disclosure about this ahole.

    I’m glad the BOR gave the green light.

    Saw Bohemian Rhapsody this afternoon and enjoyed it a lot, Fat Bottomed Girls was on my mixtape in 1978-79 when my friends and I drove around west Texas with a keg in the back of my friend’s Blazer.
     
    12 bkennedy404, Nov 11, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2018
  13. Truluck

    Truluck Well-Known Member
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    You make me live belongs in your top10.
     
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  14. Capn*Hook

    Capn*Hook Well-Known Member
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    I live about 80 miles from what used to be Paradise and the smoke here yesterday was terrible and there were warnings out to stay inside, particularly for those people with breathing issues. Better today, but still not clear.
     
  15. edmondhorn2

    edmondhorn2 Newly minted Staff member
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    I could list the idiot Rah Rah crew that was offended by Ketch stating Ehlinger needed to raise his game...smfh.
     
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  16. tooshybrotha

    tooshybrotha Well-Known Member
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    Embiid’s numbers tho :eek: :eek:
     
  17. slimibkt

    slimibkt You afraid it won't come off?
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    Before you become too excited about Joel Embiid. I looked at Wilt Chamberlain's stats for his first 100. I took the averages for his first NBA year (72 games) and extrapolated them for 100. His second year stats were even better and after 100 games he would have 3,760 points and 2,700 rebounds. They didn't record blocks back then.
     
  18. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    He's a unicorn.
     
  19. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    k.
     
  20. bmg81

    bmg81 Active Member
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    Killer Queen should be in the top 10
     
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  21. Baconbeard

    Baconbeard Well-Known Member
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    Those Kyler Murray numbers are astounding
     
  22. slimibkt

    slimibkt You afraid it won't come off?
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    Juat
    Just found some block information for Wilt. There were 112 games throughout his career were blocks were recorded. He averaged 8.8 in those games. there were 8 from his first 100 games and he averaged 8.0 in those. So throw in 800 blocks in his first 100 games.
     
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  23. bmg81

    bmg81 Active Member
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    While everyone focuses on WVU-OU in a few weeks, aren’t we overlooking the fact that if WVU loses at OSU this weekend and Texas wins out, Texas is in the CCG no matter what happens in Morgantown? We would hold a tie breaker against OU if they were the loser, and WVU would have 3 losses if they were to lose.

    Would not put it past the Pokes to pull off the upset in Stillwater.
     
  24. edmondhorn2

    edmondhorn2 Newly minted Staff member
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    Love to visit but wouldn’t live there.
     
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  25. -BaseballCoach-

    -BaseballCoach- Well-Known Member
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    Joe Mauer killed FSU like Garrett Gilbert did to Texas.
     
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  26. dirtman

    dirtman Well-Known Member
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    Chances that Orlando will see the light and change his scheme to a four man front, at least for next year?
     
  27. magnahorn

    magnahorn never wrong; sometimes misreinterpreted.
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    Horns08 and cmorris119 like this.
  28. mannybeingmanny

    mannybeingmanny Well-Known Member
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    Buy or sell these are the issues referred to when yall induced the meltdown over not hiring Herman
     
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  29. cnapp

    cnapp Genius, Billionaire, Playboy Philanthropist
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    every area has their thing. Last year Houston was underwater. Florida and the Carolinas get hammered with hurricanes. Blizzards up north. Alabama and Mississippi are tornado alley. So lately California has been burning
     
  30. daflonghorn

    daflonghorn Bleedin' burnt orange since before I was born
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    Just finished rewatching the game-
    Can we trade in our Defense for the one we had at the beginning of the year, before the Bye-Week!?
    I mean, whoever those imposters are out there now are awful, just awful!! Can’t tackle. Don’t swarm to the ball. Look confused at times. What the heck happened?!

    At least the Offense is finding its way now. Finally!!

    Oh, and can we stop relaxing when we get out to a good lead and keep our foot on the gas!!!! Geez!!!!
     
  31. LJhornSI

    LJhornSI Well-Known Member
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    I’d say in two years, Sam’s senior year, Texas will be in a good position. Last year’s talented class will be Juniors and redshirt sophomores. If we land a few more studs in this class it will set us up well for a run.
     
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  32. kwayne64

    kwayne64 Well-Known Member
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    As bad as Texas' defense has been, OU's has performed even worse. They've given up an average of 10 more points per game than Texas to their common opponents so far.
     
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  33. JuarezYourProblem

    JuarezYourProblem Our best can beat anyone in the country
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    Feel like folks will read the 10TFTW once the Zach Smith shit show ends. It’s still going haha.
     
  34. EG-man

    EG-man This is my shocked face.
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    Stay safe and sending prayers your way brother.
     
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  35. dominy

    dominy Well-Known Member
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    Tie your mother down is a great Queen tune
     
  36. tony5468

    tony5468 Well-Known Member
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  37. jjgutz

    jjgutz Well-Known Member
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    the infidelity issue ...was that the red light that came up...behind the scenes...when herman was being courted by Texas?
     
  38. mannybeingmanny

    mannybeingmanny Well-Known Member
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    OrangeMGB, Scanodd and NativeTex like this.
  39. H8Toujohn

    H8Toujohn Well-Known Member
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    So does Tie Your Mother Down.
     
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  40. borna'horn

    borna'horn Well-Known Member
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    Best two game stretch I can remember was James Brown in the final two regular season 1994 games vs Houston and Baylor. He threw 9 TDs, zero picks, and had a 10+ YPA if memory serves me right. His pass efficiency rating for the season was the highest in the nation though his 3 starts didn’t qualify him officially. It was a huge turn around for the program as we won the final SWC championship the next season and the first Big 12 championship the next.
     

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