I’d say in two years, Sam’s senior year, Texas will be in a good position. Last year’s talented class will be Juniors and redshirt sophomores. If we land a few more studs in this class it will set us up well for a run.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Sam Ehlinger is playing historically good football...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I’d say in two years, Sam’s senior year, Texas will be in a good position. Last year’s talented class will be Juniors and redshirt sophomores. If we land a few more studs in this class it will set us up well for a run.
As bad as Texas' defense has been, OU's has performed even worse. They've given up an average of 10 more points per game than Texas to their common opponents so far.
Just a couple of weeks ago, yours truly received more than a few side-eyes from Orangebloods members for stating that if the Longhorns were going to emerge from the ashes of the Oklahoma State loss with a run that would lead them to the Big 12 Championship game, sophomore quarterback Sam Ehlinger would need to raise his level of play.
Some of you were offended, believing that it was some sort of statement against Ehlinger's play on the season.
My contention was that this team’s needs from Ehlinger had more to do with the competition that loomed than it did anything else. With a defense that struggles against quarterbacks that aren't terrible, anything short of all-America play would leave Texas short of its biggest team goal. Fair or not, the pathway to the Big 12 Championship requires greatness from Ehlinger and not just improved play from a year ago.
Two weeks later, Ehlinger has not only accepted the challenge in delivering the two best games of his career in consecutive weeks, but it's taken every single play he's made to give Texas a chance to win in each of the last two games. Basically, this team goes as Big Sam goes.
How good has he been in the last two weeks?
Well, in putting together a 179.5 efficiency rating against West Virginia and a 180.6 rating against Texas Tech, Ehlinger did something (back to back games of 175+ ratings) that Colt McCoy (vs.Texas A&M and vs. Ohio State in 2008) and Vince Young (at Baylor and vs. Kansas in 2005) were able to do only once each in their respective careers.
Chris Simms never pulled it off (although he was close). Major Applewhite never did it, either.
Basically, in the modern history of the program, back-to-back passing games similar to the ones Ehlinger just had has happened only two other times in the modern history of the program, both times by the two best quarterbacks in the history of the program.
Texas has needed Ehlinger to step up his level of play to keep it in the Big 12 title race and he's more than answered the bell.
Now he just needs to keep it up.
No. 2 - Ok. Cool. Hook'em ...
So, the wife-beating former friend of Tom Herman was back on social media on Sunday with an assortment of arrows aimed at Herman.
A few thoughts on the matter...
a. Zach Smith is an abuser who is spiraling out of control and can't control his emotions or urges. Personally, I view him as a very dangerous person, as he checks all of the boxes that are usually checked when someone does something really bad. Whatever measures need to be taken to ensure his ex-wife and kids are safe must be taken.
b. Tom Herman comes off looking like a bad husband in all of this, but everything that I know about his relationship with his wife is that they are very honest with each other and have crossed the bridges that would need to be crossed in order to maintain a happy relationship. As it relates to the allegations related to their personal business, I find none of it to be any of our business.
c. Let's be clear about something... Herman was a bit of a wildcat in his assistant coaching days and maturation as a husband and as a man is something he's worked on as he's departed his 30s and entered his 40s. In speaking to a senior UT official a few months ago about this, the message I received was that these events were before he became a head coach and not something Texas would be compelled to respond to.
d. As is almost always the case, the victim here is a woman. Michelle Herman deserves our compassion and respect for her privacy. All she tried to do was be a good friend to a woman being abused and now her personal business has been put on the clothesline for everyone to see. She was viewed as nothing more than collateral damage by Smith. F that, dude.
e. I think @Anwar Richardson said it best.
No. 3 - Fulfilling a Request ...
After watching Texas Tech back-up quarterback Jett Duffey light up the Longhorns to the tune of 444 yards passing, long-time Orangebloods poster @Mi Rey requested that someone take a look at the in-game numbers posted by all 10 opposing quarterbacks on the Texas schedule vs. the overall numbers that those quarterbacks have posted this season.
His wish is my command.
* Kaseem Hill (Maryland) - Season (115.7), vs. Texas (134.3) and vs. Everyone Else (111.9)
* Luke Skipper (Tulsa): Season (115.5), vs. Texas (100.6) and vs. Everyone Else (112.2)
* J.T. Daniels (USC): Season (124.5), vs. Texas (114.7) and vs. Everyone Else (126.6)
* Shawn Robinson (TCU): Season (122.4), vs. Texas (113.3) and vs. Everyone Else (124.0)
* Skyler Thompson (Kansas State): Season (116.8), vs. Texas (89.2) and vs. Everyone Else (120.5)
* Kyler Murray (Oklahoma): Season (212.9), vs. Texas (214.4) and vs. Everyone Else (212.7)
* Charlie Brewer (Baylor): Season (134.3), vs. Texas (106.3) and vs. Everyone Else (138.6)
* Taylor Cornelius (Oklahoma State): Season (151.6), vs. Texas (176.1) and vs. Everyone Else (149.0)
* Will Grier (West Virginia): Season (180.7), vs. Texas (159.4) and vs. Everyone Else (184.1)
* Jett Duffey (Texas Tech): Season (150.7), vs. Texas (181.9) and vs. Everyone Else (132.3)
A few observations...
* Texas has actually forced six of the 10 starting quarterbacks it has faced this season to play below their overall season mark. Consider me a bit surprised.
* Texas has played six quarterbacks this season with sub 135 season efficiency ratings, with five of those owning sub 125 season efficiency ratings. Jett Duffey would have made it seven quarterbacks with sub 135 passing efficiency ratings had it not been for his video game performance on Saturday night. Without diving deeper into the numbers, this feels like a historically poor group of quarterbacks that Texas has played against this season.
* The four best quarterback performances of the season against the Longhorns have occurred in the last five games, which should not be a shocker to anyone paying attention to the season's slate of games.
No. 4 - Compare and contrast ...
Continuing our way through the class of 2015, we take a look at the offensive line position today, which featured seven linemen ranked as four-star prospects or higher and 10 of the state's top 50 overall prospects.
Previous position breakdowns: Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Defensive ends and Defensive Backs
Top In-State prospects
1. Maea Teuhema (LSU) - Started 21 games as a freshman and sophomore for the Tigers before having to transfer to Southeastern Louisiana in 2017. Wasn't drafted by any NFL team after declaring for the draft early.
2. Toby Weathersby (LSU) - Played in 31 games over three seasons for the Tigers before declaring early for the NFL draft. Was signed as an undrafted free agent and is currently on injured reserve for the Philadelphia Eagles.
3. Conner Dyer (Texas Tech) - Was forced to retire from football in 2016 because of repeated injuries.
4. Patrick Vahe (Texas) - Four-year starter for the Longhorns, but a player that has never been better than just solid.
5. Keaton Sutherland (Texas A&M) - A three-year starter for the Aggies who has played both guard and tackle in his career.
6. Connor Williams (Texas) - A three-year starter for the Longhorns at left tackle and a consensus all-American in 2016. Departed the Longhorn program after his third season and was drafted in the second round by the Dallas Cowboys.
7. Trevor Elbert (Texas A&M) - Left A&M, went to a JUCO and is now aback-up at Central Florida.
8. Bobby Evans (Oklahoma) - A multi-year starter at tackle for the Sooners as a junior who has emerged as one of the best linemen in the Big 12.
9. Connor Lanfear (Texas A&M) - A multi-year starter for the Aggies who has had an up and down season in 2018, which includes losing his starting job.
10. Zack Rogers (Arkansas) - Had been a part-time starter for the Hawgs at center at various points in his career, but retired from football heading into the 2018 season.
Judgment?
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: If you are Tom Herman, you are putting Todd Orlando on notice and telling him that he has the rest of the season to show improvement on defense or else, and at the same time you are assembling a list of potential replacements just in case it does not get any better or continues to get worse?
(Sell) Tom Herman has a job at The University of Texas because of Todd Orlando. He went to a bowl game last year in his first season at Texas because of Todd Orlando. I'll be the first person to say that Orlando has to do a better job because I think he's lost coaching battles in half of the games this season, but he's not under any real pressure and Herman isn't going to treat someone that he owes so much to in such shabby fashion. I'm sure that the two will sit down in the off-season and have a serious conversation about what has to happen in 2019, but he's sure as hell not going to be put on notice for the rest of the season.
BUY or SELL: Until our front seven recruiting matches our skill level recruiting, we'll just be aight?
(Buy) The difference between true national championship contenders and the pretenders that flirt with playoff appearances is almost always in the talent and play up-front. In that respect, Texas probably isn't going to be a true national championship contender before the decade concludes.
BUY or SELL: Does Sam set the all-time FBS attempts with no picks record this year?
(Sell) I think the Cyclones get him once this weekend.
BUY or SELL: LJ Humphrey wrapped up first-team all-Big 12 honors at WR last night?
(Sell) Marquese Brown and Tylan Wallace are absolute locks to make the team, which likely leaves Humphrey battling Antoine Wesley for the third spot and Wesley's numbers for the season are considerably stronger. Be prepared to be pissed in a couple of weeks when the teams are announced.
BUY or SELL: Texas needs to switch to a four man front on defense next year?
(Buy) I think it's the only sensible thing to do when you look at the talent available. There are just too many tweeners on this roster along the defensive line to play a three-man front.
BUY or SELL: No matter how talented your defensive backs are in the Big 12, the league is destined to continue having high scoring offense dominated games into the foreseeable future?
(Buy) It's the Big 12 ... duh.
BUY or SELL: Given the large number of seniors playing significant roles on this team and the likely departure of LJH and/or CJ, it is wrong to believe Texas will be better next season?
(Sell) It remains to be seen what the tenor of next season will look like, but I don't see an issue with believing next year's team can be better. I just wouldn't assume it.
BUY or SELL: If I put the over/under for career wins for Sam Ellinger at 28.5, you take the over?
(Buy) With him sitting on 11 and with a chance to finish the season with anywhere between 12-15, he'd likely only need to average eight wins per year for the next two seasons to cross that number. I suppose the real question is whether he could emerge as an NFL prospect coming out of his junior season. It seems crazy to think about to a degree, but if he keeps playing like he has the last two weeks, it'll probably be a talking point 12 months from now.
BUY or SELL: Given Sam’s current trajectory, he finishes as the third best QB in UT history behind Vince and Colt?
(Sell) It's going to take some championship hardware to pass James Street and probably something more than just a Big 12 title. It's apples to oranges because of the comparisons between two different eras, but Street's resume shouldn't be underrated.
BUY or SELL: OU Loses in Morgantown?
(Buy) It's a baby buy, but it's a 60-40 buy at this moment.
BUY or SELL: You can only have one of Collin Johnson or Lil'Jordan Humphrey next year, and you choose Humphrey?
(Buy) He's a more versatile route runner and better after the catch.
No. 6 – If I had a vote that mattered …
(Nothing changed this week)
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Michigan
6. Oklahoma
7. West Virginia
8. Ohio State
9. Washington State
10. LSU
Heisman Top 3: Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray and Gardner Minshew.
No. 7 - Good news and bad news ...
If all you did was watch the final four minutes of regulation and the overtime period of Friday night's game between Texas and Arkansas, you probably came away feeling pretty entertained.
If you happened to watch all 2+ hours of the game from start to finish, you likely wondered why you didn't have better things to do with your time on a Friday night.
On one hand, the Longhorns won the game, which included an incredibly memorable three-point shot by Kerwin Roach. On the other hand, you still had a Texas team that seemed allergic to offense, something you'd hope wouldn't be an issue in Shaka Smart's fourth season in Austin.
For now, I'm going to cut this team some slack for the following reasons:
a. Matt Coleman was awful and I don't think he'll be awful on most nights this season.
b. It was Roach's first game of the season and it took some time to settle in, but once he did, he looked promising.
c. I like me some Courtney Ramey.
d. Kamaka Hepa and Jaxson Hayes will have much better nights in the near future.
That's not to say that I have it in me to watch this team play on Monday night against Louisiana-Monroe, but I will cut it some slack.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Iowa State not having star running back David Montgomery for the first half this weekend is a major storyline to Saturday's game. It might just prove to be the difference in the game.
... Tua Tagovailoa was kind of mortal this weekend. Who knew?
... Clemson naming Trevor Lawrence as its starting quarterback was a season-saving/making decision in retrospect. It feels like we're heading for a Tagovailoa/Lawrence showdown in the national title game.
... Gary Patterson has the biggest and most challenging off-season of his career in front of him in 2019. That is not a good football team that he is currently in charge of.
... I'm not sure Drew Brees has ever been better than he currently is right now. With all due respect to his Super Bowl team, I'm also not sure he's ever been on a better team.
... I'm starting to believe in Marcus Mariota. Man, he's had himself a hell of a last six days.
... The Patriots should never call a pass play that calls for Tom Brady to catch a pass again.
... Is Melvin Gordon the most underrated player in the NFL? It sure feels like he might be.
... I'm still in a little bit of shock that Philadelphia pulled the string on the Jimmy Butler trade, but any time you can pass along two very good role players for a two-time running All-NBA player, who is one of the best two-way players in the sport, you do it. The Sixers still need to make a couple of moves in the next couple of months to shore up a couple of existing holes and depth issues following the trade, but by the time May rolls around, I'm not sure anyone in the East will want a piece of this team.
... Speaking of the Sixers...
... What was everyone's favorite moment of the Carmelo Anthony era in Houston?
... Joe Mauer retired this weekend after a 15-year career in Major League Baseball with the Twins and it's hard for me not to wonder what might have happened if he had played college football with Florida State. There are a lot of people that feel like his decision to play baseball was the first step in Bobby Bowden's career crashing in that last decade in Tallahassee.
... Man City has to cool off eventually.... right?
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Queen Songs ...
After catching Bohemian Rhapsody earlier this week (solid, fun movie that loses some points for historical inaccuracy), it was hard not to put together some sort of Freddie Mercury list. In fact, it was impossible, so here ya go.
10. Spread Your Wings
9. The Great Pretender
8. Under Pressure
7. Fat Bottomed Girls
6. Somebody to Love
5. Get Down, Make Love
4. Another One Bites the Dust
3. We Will Rock You
2. We Are The Champions
1. Bohemian Rhapsody
No. 10 – And Finally...
This left me absolutely speechless. It's like a scene out of The Walking Dead.
Best two game stretch I can remember was James Brown in the final two regular season 1994 games vs Houston and Baylor. He threw 9 TDs, zero picks, and had a 10+ YPA if memory serves me right. His pass efficiency rating for the season was the highest in the nation though his 3 starts didn’t qualify him officially. It was a huge turn around for the program as we won the final SWC championship the next season and the first Big 12 championship the next.
To Whomever asked the first Buy or Sell question about putting Todd Orlando on notice I say to you: YOU SUCK and you should stop posting on Orangebloods.
Gilbert might have been an actor, but Mack’s recruiting wrote the play...
But if WVU loses to OU and then beats OU there will be a three way tie for first, assuming we win out. Don’t know the tie breaker but I bet we are out.
It's amazing how things change when you aren't playing a quarterback with a 120 rating.
Thanks. I thought it was a rather fine edition of 10TFTW, myself.
Until Ossai proves hhimself a little more and eats his veggies and develops in the weight room, I'd say
DE - Graham
DT - Wilbon
DT - Coburn/Ojomo
DE - Bimage
Ketch,
Thanks for the "deep dig" on Texas opponent QB QBRs. Color me surprised as well at the results. A number of the Big 12 D stat categories, in particular Passing Defense and Total Defense (below), show us in the bottom half of the conference in those categories. I continue to think our D scheme (3 man front and soft 'prevent defense' type coverage) is the wrong way to play the better QBs in the Big 12 and wrong for our talent. It certainly seemed that our last three opponents moved the ball at will, with Cornelius and Duffey playing some their best games of the year. Your QBR research certainly seems to put a dent in my assertion. Thanks for the analysis!!!!!!
PASS DEFENSE G Comp-Att-Int Pct. Yds Avg/A TD Avg/G
1. TCU 10 178-305-5 58.4 2087 6.8 17 208.7
2. West Virginia 9 176-286-10 61.5 2099 7.3 13 233.2
3. Iowa State 9 181-310-7 58.4 2115 6.8 13 235.0
4. Kansas State 10 216-367-8 58.9 2462 6.7 18 246.2
5. Baylor 10 193-316-5 61.1 2463 7.8 21 246.3
6. Kansas 10 197-301-13 65.4 2535 8.4 19 253.5
7. Oklahoma State 10 213-341-5 62.5 2555 7.5 20 255.5
8. Oklahoma 10 215-346-5 62.1 2724 7.9 17 272.4
9. Texas 10 224-364-9 61.5 2762 7.6 19 276.2
10. Texas Tech 10 207-377-9 54.9 2939 7.8 24 293.9
Total Defense:
TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
1. Iowa State 9 985 2115 628 3100 4.9 18 344.4
2. West Virginia 9 1089 2099 610 3188 5.2 23 354.2
3. TCU 10 1463 2087 702 3550 5.1 31 355.0
4. Kansas 10 1624 2535 688 4159 6.0 34 415.9
5. Oklahoma 10 1436 2724 743 4160 5.6 38 416.0
6. Kansas State 10 1705 2462 699 4167 6.0 29 416.7
7. Texas 10 1439 2762 717 4201 5.9 34 420.1
8. Oklahoma State 10 1714 2555 733 4269 5.8 41 426.9
9. Baylor 10 1838 2463 660 4301 6.5 40 430.1
10. Texas Tech 10 1603 2939 747 4542 6.1 38 454.2
32
Thanks for the "deep dig" on Texas opponent QB QBRs. Color me surprised as well at the results. A number of the Big 12 D stat categories, in particular Passing Defense and Total Defense (below), show us in the bottom half of the conference in those categories. I continue to think our D scheme (3 man front and soft 'prevent defense' type coverage) is the wrong way to play the better QBs in the Big 12 and wrong for our talent. It certainly seemed that our last three opponents moved the ball at will, with Cornelius and Duffey playing some their best games of the year. Your QBR research certainly seems to put a dent in my assertion. Thanks for the analysis!!!!!!
PASS DEFENSE G Comp-Att-Int Pct. Yds Avg/A TD Avg/G
1. TCU 10 178-305-5 58.4 2087 6.8 17 208.7
2. West Virginia 9 176-286-10 61.5 2099 7.3 13 233.2
3. Iowa State 9 181-310-7 58.4 2115 6.8 13 235.0
4. Kansas State 10 216-367-8 58.9 2462 6.7 18 246.2
5. Baylor 10 193-316-5 61.1 2463 7.8 21 246.3
6. Kansas 10 197-301-13 65.4 2535 8.4 19 253.5
7. Oklahoma State 10 213-341-5 62.5 2555 7.5 20 255.5
8. Oklahoma 10 215-346-5 62.1 2724 7.9 17 272.4
9. Texas 10 224-364-9 61.5 2762 7.6 19 276.2
10. Texas Tech 10 207-377-9 54.9 2939 7.8 24 293.9
Total Defense:
TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
1. Iowa State 9 985 2115 628 3100 4.9 18 344.4
2. West Virginia 9 1089 2099 610 3188 5.2 23 354.2
3. TCU 10 1463 2087 702 3550 5.1 31 355.0
4. Kansas 10 1624 2535 688 4159 6.0 34 415.9
5. Oklahoma 10 1436 2724 743 4160 5.6 38 416.0
6. Kansas State 10 1705 2462 699 4167 6.0 29 416.7
7. Texas 10 1439 2762 717 4201 5.9 34 420.1
8. Oklahoma State 10 1714 2555 733 4269 5.8 41 426.9
9. Baylor 10 1838 2463 660 4301 6.5 40 430.1
10. Texas Tech 10 1603 2939 747 4542 6.1 38 454.2
32
What if you did the same analysis based on yards per game passing? It sure seems like Murray, whatever the OSU QB’s name is, Grier, and Duffey have all had season if not career highs against our D this year.
Took the words right out of my mouth on both of these takes above.
What? No “You’re My Best Friend?” (The only song of theirs I even kind of liked. Couldn’t ever get into the whole glam rock thing.)
I’ll bet you’d like a podcast called Political Beats. It actually has nothing to do with politics, but each month they do a deep dissection of the entire career/catalog of a band or individual performer. Last week it was a great review of Elton John’s career, and the analysis they did of Old 97s coincidentally the same week they played at Longhorn City Limits has had me listening to that band ever since.
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The only ones offended would be the fools who don't realize that "solid QB play" pretty much give you no more than "solid results" unless you someone like a Bama. Of course, even Bama is getting far more than that this season but I digress.
