Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Saying what needs to be said)

[HornLegacy]

So optics, not metrics. I agree with you, just interested to see how the selection committee views them

they haven’t beat a single ranked team yet

edit: Oregon state is 8-4 currently ranked 22, in front of 11-1 Toledo, 11-1 James Madison and 9-2 SMU….which is BS in and of itself.

I thought we might have learned something from the OU game while we were ignoring their results and how well they were playing by parroting "but who have they played". That doesn't really matter. Oregon's only lost was to a higher ranked team that is still undefeated. Our loss was to a top 15 two loss team. And Oregon's kicking everyone's ass that they have on the schedule outside of UW and they can get their Redemption this weekend. Or not.

 

[Ketchum]

For everyone saying Oregon doesn't matter, especially Ketch, they matter big time. There's a very high likelihood that Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Oregon all win on Saturday. If that happens, then the #4 playoff spot comes down to 12-1 Oregon vs. 12-1 Texas. And if the committee follows their set criteria of 1) championships matters, 2) schedule strength, and 3) performance against common opponents, all the Oregon supporters are going to be very disappointed.

The Pac-12 is getting a team in. Period. Pretending that that's going to change is futile.

 

[Ketchum]

Wait, so his list he says top movies that were released at Christmas time but aren’t Christmas movies? How is Lord of the Rings not number 1

Being released at Christmas has nothing to do with it.

There has to be Christmas IN the movie.

 

[BevosRevenge]

Funny that having the better QB matters in the Oregon over Texas conversation but doesn’t matter in the Texas vs FSU conversation. The irony is ironic.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum, watch it again. Any list, (other than comedy) it's top 10 all time.

I've seen it at least 20 times. It's not a top 10- all-time movie.

I don't know if it makes my top 5 in 1997.

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum Didn't wade through 10 pages of comments to see if mentioned already but think have read in past OK State's CB Black is Kobe Black's brother? Any chance he portals to the good guys to play with his brother?

I think there's speculation that it could happen. Of course, he might just head off to the NFL.

 

[Ketchum]

Did you watch the Florida game? Florida beat themselves. FSU stands zero chance against any team in the top 8. No one wants to watch a CFP blowout game
If you want to talk close wins FSU has a couple to discuss just like Texas but now their qb is hurt and it matters significantly.

Texas would beat FSU senseless without Travis, you arguing for FSU to be in over Texas is just downright ridiculous

Did you watch the TCU or Houston games?

 

[Ketchum]

"Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and the rest of the blood-sucking ticks"... Jesus... hyperbole very much?

Not in that instance.

 

[Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer]

f. Speaking of the Dawgs, one of the things we learned this weekend is that the defending champions still bleed. If Georgia Tech can play with them, all of these teams can play with them.​

 

[Ketchum]

Quarterback would be the reason for their advantage on offense. The wildcard is Quinn against better competition. He seems to rise to that occasion so who knows if their QB would be better than Quinn head to head.

Texas' pass defense has been mighty shaky at times this season against quarterbacks not half as good as Nix.

 

[Ketchum]

Is there an official strength of schedule matrix that the CFP uses? I just read a WSJ article this morning outlining how Ohio State could still get in and last graph of piece goes into how Texas fans should be worried bc we could be out as one loss champion due to weak schedule. Every SOS matrix I have seen shows us with stronger schedule. What am I missing?

Was it not in the article?

 

[Ketchum]

Thanks for the great write up, as usual Ketch. What a great year for us!!! I wonder what the scenario would be to have a rematch with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl or similar. My concern is that it is VERY VERY hard to beat a team twice in one year. Ask LSU the year they went to Tuscaloosa and won 9-6 and had a rematch for the title. Not just that it is Alabama, but I would think the same thing would have concerned UO fans as well if they had made it to Big 12 Championship. IMHO, the difference between these two scenarios is, we (as usual should have, could have scored more points) dominated Alabama. I don't 'get' the Ohio State or Oregon rankings above us, but it is what it is.

If Texas misses on the Playoff, look for a Cotton Bowl match-up against Ole Miss.

 

[Jmonstermont]

Texas' pass defense has been mighty shaky at times this season against quarterbacks not half as good as Nix.

No doubt. A bit of Jekyll & Hyde with our secondary. Sure would like to play Oregon and see who’s better.

 

[Ketchum]

There’s plenty of SOS matrices out there. This is why Ketch, the AP and Coach’s poll are ultimately wrong and just arguing based on opinions.

In the last week of rankings, the committee will formulate the top 6. If all the favorites win, Texas will be in the top 6 and has a strong edge to be in the top 4 based on SOS and FPI. If Bama wins the SEC, Texas is guaranteed a spot in the CFP regardless of what Ketch and the so-called experts think.

Beat Oklahoma State and Texas is most likely in the CFP. Anybody arguing for a 1-loss team or Florida State ahead of Texas in the CFP doesn’t understand the CFP selection process and are arguing because prior to the CFP politics was a bigger issue. Things have changed.

lulz

 

[Ketchum]

@Ketchum Less Than Zero should definitely be in that top 10.

should it?

 

[Ketchum]

exactly. Vegas has the Ducks -8.5 over Wash.

wowzers

 

[Ketchum]

Funny that having the better QB matters in the Oregon over Texas conversation but doesn’t matter in the Texas vs FSU conversation. The irony is ironic.

You understand why that is apples to oranges, right?

 

[Ketchum]

bingo

 

[Ketchum]

No doubt. A bit of Jekyll & Hyde with our secondary. Sure would like to play Oregon and see who’s better.

indeed

 

[alhecht]

Was it not in the article?

No, I just double-checked. The article basically concludes with this graph: "The only fans that might be experiencing more dread than Buckeyes next weekend are Longhorns fans. That's because if Florida State, Washington, and Michigan wind up 13-0 and Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC, they might get shut out of the playoff even as a one-loss conference champion with a head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide -- because their schedule is weaker." (Emphasis added.)

What matrix actually shows that our schedule is weaker? The ones I have seen show the opposite on our SOS. It's why I posed a B/S question asking if there is an anti-Texas bias at play

 

[Louis Winthrop III]

@Ketchum

Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and Louisville all win. Oregon wins by ten and Texas beats Ok St by seventeen. Who are your four teams in the playoffs? Sorry if already answered.

 

[HornedOwl94]

should it?

Instead of Sleepless in Seattle or You've Got Mail? Yeah! Oh well...different strokes!

 

[ColladorUT]

If Texas misses on the Playoff, look for a Cotton Bowl match-up against Ole Miss.

Look for the Texas backups to match-up against Ole Miss unfortunately.

 

[Atownatx]

I always get a chuckle when @Ketchum purposely leaves the Eagles out of these write ups. 😂

 

[P Brady]

I disagree with your playoff scenario .We gotta hope Georgia beats Bama # 1 . Then we gotta really get behind Louisville to beat Fla St . I gotta assume wash/ Oregon winner gets in, but Washington beating Oregon is probably a better lock for us.
1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Washington or Oregon
4 Texas

I am a big Louisville fan this week .Nobody in the country wants Fla St in the playoffs besides their fans.

 

[PreamoHorn]

Did you watch the TCU or Houston games?

I was at the Houston game. I love this team and believe we can beat anyone on a given day. I can live with not making the playoffs because we are also the same team that needed a gift from the officials to beat one of the worst teams in the country. I think we are in if FSU loses. This has been a great year - and yes, I am assuming we beat the pokes.

 

[The Gnome Man]

I think this 100% comes down to the FSU/Louisville game (assuming we win). I don’t think the rest of the games matter (assuming no Michigan upset).

Is there anyone who would change places with FSU right now? Not me. On one hand they control they’re own destiny (win and they’re in), but on the other hand they need to beat a decent Louisville team with their 3rd team, true freshman quarterback in his first start (unless they start the concussed 2nd team guy).

I’m nervous that we don’t control our destiny, but like our position better than FSU’s.

Beat OSU!!!

 

[satterwm]

So you admit the straight bet is mathematically more probable to occur but even with that being the case you’re not convinced that a 10 point road victory over the SEC champ with the same wins and losses opens an uncontested door for Texas?

Please elaborate your thinking there because the committee’s criteria: head-to-head record, conference championship, FPI, and SOS is clear in the final rankings determination.

You are barking up the wrong tree. Just as the adage "I understood there would be no math" is popular on OB, "I understood there would be no reading" should be also.

 

[Dave C2]

(Buy) Deep down, Texas fans want to chant it.

======================================================


I'm sure you are right. But F that anyway. All I can account for is myself and while I am glad we are moving, I won't be doing that ridiculous chant.

 

[satterwm]

That dazzling Reggie Bush performance against Fresno St versus VY struggling somewhat against aggy is eerily similar to “Oregon looks better” against a poor SOS versus Texas struggling while its QB1 is out.

And that dazzling performance was the first, the last and the only time I've ever seen all-purpose yards by a RB include return yardage. Even though Bush was average at best as a punt returner, he returned 7 or 8 kickoffs that day as USC's defense gave up multiple scores.

The campaign to get him in was ridiculous, but it worked.

 

[ARD438]

What about a Second Team All Big 12

 

[LSM_Zach]

I disagree with your playoff scenario .We gotta hope Georgia beats Bama # 1 . Then we gotta really get behind Louisville to beat Fla St . I gotta assume wash/ Oregon winner gets in, but Washington beating Oregon is probably a better lock for us.
1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Washington or Oregon
4 Texas

I am a big Louisville fan this week .Nobody in the country wants Fla St in the playoffs besides their fans.

Plenty of Aggy, Sooner, Baylor, Tech, et al. fans will be rooting for FSU this weekend.

 

[utbums]

All that needs to happen is a 5.5 underdog (Louisville) winning.

UGA losing doesn't guarantee what you think it does IMO.

Surprising amount of material on the interweb about a selection between an SEC conference champ Alabama and a Big 12 champ Texas. Generally positive for the Horns. A sampling:

Why Alabama's College Football Playoff hopes are problematic beyond beating Georgia | Toppmeyer

What a twist of irony it would be if Alabama upsets Georgia and the SEC gets shut out of the final four-team College Football Playoff.

www.tuscaloosanews.com

"And, if Texas beats Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship, I can’t see how this committee would justify pushing Alabama past the Longhorns in the face of Texas’ 34-24 win inside Bryant-Denny Stadium."

www.si.com/college/2023/11/27/college-football-playoff-selection-headache-scenarios

"That would trigger the second controversy: Texas (3) beat ‘Bama in Tuscaloosa by 10 points. Yeah, it was a long time ago—Sept. 9, to be specific. But doesn’t head-to-head have to matter when both teams would have the same record? Wouldn’t there have to be a reward for taking on a game at Alabama and winning it? Especially in an era when programs like Michigan are dumping non-conference games against Power Five opponents?

Either alternative would be difficult to to swallow—a playoff in which the SEC is excluded or a playoff in which head-to-head results of a major non-conference game don’t matter. Prepare for a Greg Sankey telethon of lobbying on the SEC Network if ‘Bama beats Georgia, or for more talk about the state of Texas seceding from the union if the Crimson Tide gets in ahead of the Longhorns."

Is Alabama or Texas more deserving of a CFP spot? | Big Noon Kickoff

Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart discussed if the Alabama Crimson Tide or the Texas Longhorns are more deserving of a CFP spot.

www.foxsports.com

 

[jefakin]

Auburn let Milroe score on fourth and 31 by rushing only two. All the time in the world to survey the field.

Any DC who doesn’t bring pressure in that situation is guilty of criminal negligence.

 

[jefakin]

Get to the QB before the receivers have time to run 31 yards!