Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Saying what needs to be said)

[PeteMoss24]

The Texas game against Tech isn't apples for apples with the Oregon game against Tech.

That’s not my argument.

My argument is the case for Oregon over Texas in a 12-1 scenario isn’t cut and dry. Outside of point differential and “best loss”, Texas has the better criteria points over Oregon (best win, strength of record, common opponent, etc.).

With all that said, go Cards.

 

[ARD438]

Plenty of Aggy, Sooner, Baylor, Tech, et al. fans will be rooting for FSU this weekend.

1. Michigan 13-0
2. Oregon 12-1
3. Texas 12-1
4. Alabama 12-1
5. Georgia 12-1
6. Washington 12-1
7. FSU 12-1
8. Ohio State 11-1

Championship

Texas 34 v. Alabama 31

 

[satterwm]

It's bold no doubt.

And if I should be so bold also, I think he's correct. With one HUGE caveat, that the Committee follows their own protocals.

 

[satterwm]

The Texas game against Tech isn't apples for apples with the Oregon game against Tech.

I think the terminology is "common opponent".

 

[RLong68]

The entire burnt orange universe might need to learn some breathing exercises after the AP and Coaches Polls came out on Sunday with the Longhorns trailing one-loss Ohio State.

Nevertheless ... just breathe.

People should be able to understand the rather large insignificance of that over the long run. tOSU is zero threat to keeping a 12-1 Texas out of the CFP

 

[RLong68]

e. Ohio State being in front of Texas in the two major polls is ridiculous, but thankfully those two polls are meaningless. That being said, the unwillingness of voters to send the Buckeyes to the back of the line after a loss only reinforces my opinion that if Georgia loses on Saturday, it might not drop below No. 4 for the committee.

Perhaps. But to UGA’s credit, tOSU doesn’t remotely have their chops. FWIW, “back of the line” is a subjective matter in this discussion. How far can a top 4 team be expected to drop after losing to another top 4 team? In a one score road loss?

 

[utbums]

In a 5-team log jam the committee should leave Michigan out for cheating. Won't happen, but it should in that scenario.

 

[ARD438]

1. Georgia 13-0
2. Michigan 13-0
3. FSU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. Texas 12-1
6. Washington 12-1
7. Ohio State 11-1
8. Alabama 11-2
9. Missouri 10-2
10. Penn State 10-2
11. Ole Miss 10-2
12. Tulane 12-1

Round 1
Tulane v. @Texas
Ole Miss v. @Washington
Penn State v. @Ohio State
Missouri v. @Alabama

Round 2
Alabama v. Georgia
Ohio state v. Michigan
Ole Miss v. FSU
Texas v. Oregon

Round 3
Georgia v. Texas
Michigan v. Ole Miss

NC
Texas v. Michigan

Winner: TEXAS

This would be awesome but looking at this scenario don't see too many upsets. Just more football!! Injuries and depth will play a huge role in the playoffs.

 

[Standaddy88]

The Texas game against Tech isn't apples for apples with the Oregon game against Tech.

And the Texas schedule isn’t apples for apples with Oregon’s schedule.

Questions to consider @Ketchum:
1. Is the PAC a better conference than the Big 12 this season?
Yes. Why? Washington, Oregon, and Arizona - the 3 highest ranked teams in the PAC. The highest ranked teams in the Big 12 are Texas, OU, and Oklahoma State.

2. What are the best wins and worst losses for Oregon versus Texas?
Oregon has defeated none of the top teams in their conference and they lost to #7 Washington on 10/14 by 3 on the road. They also never played Arizona, a top 3 team in the PAC. Oregon will face #3 Washington in a rematch for the conference championship on Friday.

Texas beat #7 Bama on the road by 10. Texas lost to #12 OU at a neutral site on 10/7 by 4. Texas will play the remaining top 3 Big 12 team in Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Using your eye and/or mixed test at this point in time, Texas has the better resume. If Oregon avenges their loss, and Texas beats the remaining top 3 Big 12 team, the resumes are comparable since Oregon didn’t get to play Arizona (a top 3 PAC team) and Texas didn’t get to play the 2nd best conference opponent twice, but did have a marquee SEC win with Bama on the road that Oregon did not.

Oregon has a better offense currently.

Texas has a better defense currently.

Texas has a better special teams currently.

So why lobby for Oregon, when the eye test, mix test, the SOS, and FPI all have Texas edging out Oregon currently? Is it because you are penciling in bias by assuming they beat Washington or that they beat every top PAC opponent even though they never played the third best PAC team in Arizona?

Yep.

 

[utbums]

 

[Smootus]

Making sure that the likes of Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and the rest of the blood-sucking ticks that represent the Big 12 from having any e

Damn you are one hell of a good writer…. And this articulates exactly what I thought about us leaving the swamp of mediocrity of the big xii or xvi or whatever they call themselves … thank you @Ketchum

 

[aurkodutta]

Daggummit Ags....if youdda just waited a day you coulda had Frank Reich.

 

[McGuapo]

If Texas misses on the Playoff, look for a Cotton Bowl match-up against Ole Miss.

Missing the playoffs to play a meh Ole Miss team ranked below Texas does absolutely nothing for me. I will be severely disappointed if this happens.

 

[Williamhill2034]

Agreed. Everyone has had a game or two like that.

FSU is a totally different team without Travis is my point and I don’t think they are the 4th best team at this point.

 

[HappyMikeWatkins]

Anyone mention Toys in their movie list.

 

[Mr Treehorn]

BUT if you think the committee will not pick a SEC team to be in the CFP this year when 5 of the top 13 AP teams are SEC (7 of the top 13 when you count UT and OU...over 50% of the top 13, but I digress), you are fooling yourself.

Surely in this scenario UT and Alabama would be considered ‘comparable teams’, so the selection criteria becomes:

• Championships won (both check)
• Strength of schedule (Bama ~#5, UT ~#10)
• Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
• Common opponents

There isn’t anything on that list about making sure everything is right in the world (i.e., ensuring SEC representation in the playoff.)

(And BTW, the reason the committee sees Oregon as better than UT currently is that Oregon has lost its one game to an undefeated team while UT lost to a 2-loss team. That's a bitter pill for many OBers to swallow, but be big boys, not homers.)

Oregon’s SOS is ranked by most services around #50, with no great win to speak of. The horns are consistently ranked in the top 10 in SOS, then of course we have the bama win.

So a better loss trumps a better win?

A win over Washington this weekend gives the Oregon argument legitimacy. But it’s ridiculous they’ve been above us to this point based on high scores against the likes of Portland State and Hawaii.

The only path for UT into the CFP is for us to win and Fla St to lose.

Agreed, nevertheless!

 

[Troyboy8ball]

Did you watch the TCU or Houston games?

Another thing that nobody mentions or that the committee probably has no idea about, is that in the "close games against bad teams" that the other contenders were involved in, the games were dog fights throughout, and in some cases the CFP contender had to come back to win.

In our three close games (TCU, KState, Houston), we were effectively up by three TDs after three quarters and were absolutely dominating the score and statistics, and then either weird turnovers happened or Sark took his foot off the gas on offense and played soft defense and let the cockroaches back in it.

And I know that football is a 60 minute game, blah blah blah, but that is a significant difference in our close games vs. Bama/UW/FSU's close games. Plus, our back-up started and/or finished two of those three games.

 

[Enjoying the Ride]

Two different issues.
1) The CFP published selection criteria
2) How the CFP selection committee will apply those criteria

A lot of this thread has been about arguments of how WE would apply the selection criteria (e.g. Texas should be selected ahead of a conference champion Oregon or a one loss non-champion Georgia, or a one loss conference champion Alabama, or even an undefeated Florida State because of this or that published criteria).

The real discussion should be how we think the CFP will apply the criteria.

I am pretty certain that the committee will put in Big12 conference champion Texas if Michigan is miraculously upset and Georgia wins the SEC. Then BIG is out of the playoffs.

I am pretty certain that the committee will put Texas in as a Big12 champion if Florida State loses and Georgia wins. Then ACC is out of the playoffs.

I am scared of what happens if Alabama beats Georgia and Florida State wins, even if Texas is Big12 champion. ACC champ, Pac12 champ and Michigan would be in. And Texas would be in discussion against BOTH of the one loss SEC teams about SOS and relevance of early head to head victories vs how teams have changed, etc. Not impossible for Texas to win out in that discussion but I would bet against it. The committee is going to have to make a decision that will be very controversial in this scenario.

I see no chance for Texas if Michigan, Florida State and Georgia all win. Pac12 champ in, ACC champ in, SEC champ in, BIG champ in. No way is the committee going to move Texas above an undefeated Florida State (even without a QB) or a one loss Oregon Pac12 champion (regardless of arguments about SOS or quality wins or common opponents - a one loss Oregon is already ahead of Texas in selection committee eyes and will get relatively stronger vs Texas on the selection criteria if they beat a heretofore undefeated Washington team in the Pac12 conference championship game).

I am rooting strongly for the Horns on Saturday. That will ensure a great, great season no matter what happens in the CFP. Then I am rooting strongly for Louisville and Georgia on Saturday for the "extra" blessing of a CFP selection.

 

[Standaddy88]

Two different issues.
1) The CFP published selection criteria
2) How the CFP selection committee will apply those criteria

A lot of this thread has been about arguments of how WE would apply the selection criteria (e.g. Texas should be selected ahead of a conference champion Oregon or a one loss non-champion Georgia, or a one loss conference champion Alabama, or even an undefeated Florida State because of this or that published criteria).

The real discussion should be how we think the CFP will apply the criteria.

I am pretty certain that the committee will put in Big12 conference champion Texas if Michigan is miraculously upset and Georgia wins the SEC. Then BIG is out of the playoffs.

I am pretty certain that the committee will put Texas in as a Big12 champion if Florida State loses and Georgia wins. Then ACC is out of the playoffs.

I am scared of what happens if Alabama beats Georgia and Florida State wins, even if Texas is Big12 champion. ACC champ, Pac12 champ and Michigan would be in. And Texas would be in discussion against BOTH of the one loss SEC teams about SOS and relevance of early head to head victories vs how teams have changed, etc. Not impossible for Texas to win out in that discussion but I would bet against it. The committee is going to have to make a decision that will be very controversial in this scenario.

I see no chance for Texas if Michigan, Florida State and Georgia all win. Pac12 champ in, ACC champ in, SEC champ in, BIG champ in. No way is the committee going to move Texas above an undefeated Florida State (even without a QB) or a one loss Oregon Pac12 champion (regardless of arguments about SOS or quality wins or common opponents - a one loss Oregon is already ahead of Texas in selection committee eyes and will get relatively stronger vs Texas on the selection criteria if they beat a heretofore undefeated Washington team in the Pac12 conference championship game).

I am rooting strongly for the Horns on Saturday. That will ensure a great, great season no matter what happens in the CFP. Then I am rooting strongly for Louisville and Georgia on Saturday for the "extra" blessing of a CFP selection.

In rooting for Georgia, you are rooting for Bama to lose, which would weaken our resume, since that team is our strongest win and resume builder to this point.

If Florida State or Michigan loses, it may be moot, but it’s most likely Bama beats Georgia. They have beat Georgia in the SEC before. Rooting for Georgia serves no purpose.

We want chaos. Bama winning the SEC creates the most chaos and boosts the Texas resume significantly. Let it play out and definitely don’t root for Georgia.

 

[jtrobin]

And yet none of that disputes what I said or proves it wrong.

As I said last week...We Win--- UL Wins ---We're in.....

 

[Ketchum]

Just want to see more longhorns lol make the list. Need Anthony Hill, AD Mitchell, Jerrin Thompson, Michael Taffe, JT Sanders, DJ Campbell

Hmmm... I wonder how many second team guys there will be...?

 

[Ketchum]

That’s not my argument.

My argument is the case for Oregon over Texas in a 12-1 scenario isn’t cut and dry. Outside of point differential and “best loss”, Texas has the better criteria points over Oregon (best win, strength of record, common opponent, etc.).

With all that said, go Cards.

It seems to be cut and dry for the committee, no?

 

[Ketchum]

It's bold no doubt.

And if I should be so bold also, I think he's correct. With one HUGE caveat, that the Committee follows their own protocals.

I was saying it's bold to tell the owner of the site to pretty much go **** himself.

 

[Ketchum]

I think the terminology is "common opponent".

not apples to apples as fate would have it.

 

[Ketchum]

People should be able to understand the rather large insignificance of that over the long run. tOSU is zero threat to keeping a 12-1 Texas out of the CFP

That is correct.

 

[Ketchum]

Perhaps. But to UGA’s credit, tOSU doesn’t remotely have their chops. FWIW, “back of the line” is a subjective matter in this discussion. How far can a top 4 team be expected to drop after losing to another top 4 team? In a one score road loss?

Uh..... not far.

 

[Ketchum]

And the Texas schedule isn’t apples for apples with Oregon’s schedule.

Questions to consider @Ketchum:
1. Is the PAC a better conference than the Big 12 this season?
Yes. Why? Washington, Oregon, and Arizona - the 3 highest ranked teams in the PAC. The highest ranked teams in the Big 12 are Texas, OU, and Oklahoma State.

2. What are the best wins and worst losses for Oregon versus Texas?
Oregon has defeated none of the top teams in their conference and they lost to #7 Washington on 10/14 by 3 on the road. They also never played Arizona, a top 3 team in the PAC. Oregon will face #3 Washington in a rematch for the conference championship on Friday.

Texas beat #7 Bama on the road by 10. Texas lost to #12 OU at a neutral site on 10/7 by 4. Texas will play the remaining top 3 Big 12 team in Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Using your eye and/or mixed test at this point in time, Texas has the better resume. If Oregon avenges their loss, and Texas beats the remaining top 3 Big 12 team, the resumes are comparable since Oregon didn’t get to play Arizona (a top 3 PAC team) and Texas didn’t get to play the 2nd best conference opponent twice, but did have a marquee SEC win with Bama on the road that Oregon did not.

Oregon has a better offense currently.

Texas has a better defense currently.

Texas has a better special teams currently.

So why lobby for Oregon, when the eye test, mix test, the SOS, and FPI all have Texas edging out Oregon currently? Is it because you are penciling in bias by assuming they beat Washington or that they beat every top PAC opponent even though they never played the third best PAC team in Arizona?

Yep.

1. Yes.

2. By none of the top teams, you mean they didn't beat Washington, no?

3. I'm not lobbying for anything. I'm telling you have the committee and Vegas see things,

 

[Ketchum]

Damn you are one hell of a good writer…. And this articulates exactly what I thought about us leaving the swamp of mediocrity of the big xii or xvi or whatever they call themselves … thank you @Ketchum

 

[Ketchum]

Missing the playoffs to play a meh Ole Miss team ranked below Texas does absolutely nothing for me. I will be severely disappointed if this happens.

You wouldn't be alone.

 

[Ketchum]

FSU is a totally different team without Travis is my point and I don’t think they are the 4th best team at this point.

Few would argue that they are.

 

[Ketchum]

Anyone mention Toys in their movie list.

Nope.

 

[Ketchum]

In rooting for Georgia, you are rooting for Bama to lose, which would weaken our resume, since that team is our strongest win and resume builder to this point.

Alabama has survived its purpose. It really hasn't helped Texas muxh.

 

[Standaddy88]

1. Yes.

2. By none of the top teams, you mean they didn't beat Washington, no?

3. I'm not lobbying for anything. I'm telling you have the committee and Vegas see things,

2. Oregon didn’t beat Arizona or Washington (the 2 best teams in the PAC excluding Oregon)

3. Wrong again

 

[Standaddy88]

Alabama has survived its purpose. It really hasn't helped Texas muxh.

Alabama is the main reason we are in the top 10.

Bottom line, Alabama winning the SEC propels Texas to top 4 in combination with winning the B12 championship.

 

[RLong68]

nm