Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Trying not to be too hyperbolic, but...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
A 1.2 yards per carry deficit is no small thing.
Bijan has a chance to finish with the highest YPC in the history of the program.
You wrote 600 words about how special Bijan is and then wrote Corum is going to "steal Bijan's spot in NY" which IMPLIES that Bijan had a spot in NY to steal!
Your ability to write your way out of situations like this is epic, but come on now... You have to take the L on this one😂
Would Bijan be averaging 6.2 yards a carry if he averaged 23 carries per game like Cedric did instead of the 16 carries a game he has averaged in his career? Could Bijan physically hold up under the workload that Cedric had to carry over the course of a season? I'm saying his body and his YPC numbers pay the price if his workload resembles that of Cedric.
Break it down a little more and look at their final (best) seasons at Texas... If you give me the choice, I'll take the guy who can carry the ball 27 times a game and average 5.6 ypc like Cedric did in 2004 over the guy who carries the ball 20 times a game and averages 5.7 ypc like Bijan has this season.
You wrote 600 words about how special Bijan is and then wrote Corum is going to "steal Bijan's spot in NY" which IMPLIES that Bijan had a spot in NY to steal!
Your ability to write your way out of situations like this is epic, but come on now... You have to take the L on this one😂
Oh, I "implied" it.
I guess I'll take my L.
You guys are really consumed by some weird things.
I'm not saying he definitely ranks above Ced, I'm just saying it's not an open and shut case that Ced is in a different class than Bijan is.
Great write-up Ketch!
However, I'm sorry to say that you left off the absolute best dinner party scene of all time!
If you leave one wolf alive, the sheep are never safe....
However, I'm sorry to say that you left off the absolute best dinner party scene of all time!
If you leave one wolf alive, the sheep are never safe....
Fair enough. In my view, the only thing that gives Bijan any shot at reaching Ced's status at Texas is a 4th year on campus. The gap at this moment is simply too wide to be closed in half a season.
With all this said, I'd put my money on Bijan having a better pro career than Cedric had.
The thing is...
Ced never won a Big 12 title and never had a huge performance is a big bowl game... and he never beat OU.
If... and this is a mighty IF....
Bijan....
a. wins the Big 12
b. Has a huge bowl game.
c. Wins the Doak
d. Has a win over OU in his pocket.
e. Averages a full yard per carry more than him
f. Finishes with the best YPC of any multi-year starter in school history
There might be something to discuss.
Is such a comparison, ie Bijan vs Ced, a career comparison or peak comparison?
For me, if Bijan does the above and he doesn't have to win Big 12, but getting to championship game probably matters, then he would move ahead of Ced for me.
I would be taking into account peak vs peak and acknowledging that Bijan creates more missed tackles than anyone I've ever seen. That extra yard per carry Bijan gets, comes after having to make his first move behind the line of scrimmage 75% of the time.
Bijan is a freak and its a shame that he didn't have a better team, specifically O-Line, beside him for his career.
I think the only way to settle discussions like this are the, "If you were starting a team right now, and could only have one of the two for a 3 years, who would you take?"
Ricky
Was that an option
Just kidding, I'd take Bijan knowing full well there's no wrong answer. I think he's a little more versatile, a little more electric?
Starting a team, today? Bijan, no question.
Starting a team in '01? Still Bijan,
People will say I under value, Ced, but I don't. I simply think that people undervalue how drastically more difficult running the last 3 years have been for Bijan and he's still putting up amazing numbers.
My goal is to not give into too much hyperbole today when talking about Texas running back Bijan Robinson.
I know he's not remotely close to as productive week-in and week-out as Ricky Williams was in his final two seasons.
I know he's not the sledgehammer finisher that Cedric Benson was at his best.
I know he isn't as flat-out explosive as Jamaal Charles was when he got a step on a defense.
Earl? Good gosh, I hate to mention even the name of a true football-playing god in cleats.
Yet, I have to state very loudly for the record that I'm convinced that we're watching something special each week with Robinson in what most assume will be his final season as a Longhorn player before heading off to the even greener pastures of the NFL.
Each week that passes, I become more and more convinced that the following will turn out to be true.
a. From a skill set standpoint, we've never quite seen anything like Robinson in a Texas uniform at the running back position. Just like Earl, Ricky and Jamaal were all just different than anyone else that ever wore burnt orange, so is Bijan. I'm not sure that anyone has ever made playing the running back position look so effortless.
b. Robinson is going to be a sensational pro running back. If he lands in the right offense, he's going to be a future All-Pro-level player.
c. By the time he's finished playing football, we're all going to be telling future generations of Orangebloods that we were lucky enough to live the Bijan Experience in Austin.
He's that good. That special.
As things currently stand, Robinson isn't even in the top 10 in school history with regard to rushing yards. He's tied for 13th at this very moment with former five-star Johnathan Gray. Yet, at his current pace, he's on pace to finish inside the top five, just ahead of College Hall of Famer Chris Gilbert.
If he can lift his yards per game rate from 111.4 to 120.0, he'll chase down Charles for fourth place.
Take a look at the Charles vs. Robinson tale of the tape.
Charles: 533 carries for 3,328 yards (6.2 YPC) and 38 touchdowns/49 receptions for 539 yards (11.0 YPC) and three touchdowns
Robinson: 419 carries for 2,610 yards (6.2 YPC) and 25 touchdowns/57 receptions for 730 yards (12.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns.
When this season is finished, there's a good chance that the two will have near-identical rushing numbers. Charles will have a national championship ring. If Robinson stays healthy, he's the favorite to win the Doak Walker Award. From a statistical standpoint, the thing that might separate the two is Robinson's superior receiving skills. While Charles was a good receiver out of the backfield in his three seasons in Austin, Robinson is better.
I'm not sure I can completely quantify how much better of a receiver Robinson is than Charles, but the numbers tell us that he's better. My eyeballs tell me he's the most skilled receiver out of the backfield the Longhorns have ever had (apologies to Eric Metcalf).
What I'm getting at is that Robinson warrants being mentioned with the best running backs in a storied running back history at The University of Texas and that by the end of the season, Robinson might just creep into the fourth spot in the school's Mount Rushmore of running backs.
That's not hyperbole as much as it's the actual tale of the tape with what might be 6 or 7 games left in his college career.
Enjoy him while you can.
No. 2 - Saturday in Stillwater ...
With so much football still left to be played for both teams, it might be a false statement to call Saturday's clash between Oklahoma State and Texas an elimination game for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game, but it might just turn out to be a true statement.
TCU's win in Ft. Worth over the Cowboys on Saturday leaves the Cowboys with a far less margin of error than they had 72 hours ago. Both teams will enter the game with a single mark in the loss column (in league play), but the winner of the game will not only have a one-game lead in the standings, it will also hold a major head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
It feels like we're talking about four teams fighting for two spots in the Championship Game - TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas. While the Longhorns play the Cowboys this weekend, the Horned Frogs and Wildcats will also do battle, which means that only one team will be undefeated in the standings a week from today. Two teams will have one loss. One will have two losses.
A loss won't be a death blow for the loser of the Texas/OSU game, but it will probably put the loser on life support for making the title game.
Those are the stakes.
No. 3 - An uneven day at the quarterback position ...
Here's the bottom line from my perspective on the day that Quinn Ewers had on Saturday ...
He finished with 159 efficiency rating, three touchdown passes and ZERO turnovers.
Your eyeballs might have told you that Ewers was just okay on Saturday (it's what my eyeballs told me), but the data says he did everything that will be needed of him in most weeks for Texas to win. I'd guess that if he posts the identical stat lines over the course of the next five games, the Longhorns will have a chance to win each game.
Frankly, I don't think we put enough emphasis on the fact that he's not turning the ball over much this season, which was the major concern coming out of fall camp when there were questions about his knowledge of the offense and his ability to protect the ball.
Those issues haven't really been issues thus far for Ewers. It's not a small deal.
Yes, he got away with a couple of plays on Saturday, but he also had a possible touchdown dropped in the third quarter. Those things happen. All that matters is the bottom line and the bottom line on Saturday is that a 159 rating with three touchdown passes and zero turnovers is a pretty damn good set of production numbers.
No. 4 - Is Vasek going to stay home ...
Here's what you need to know about the situation involving Austin Westlake defensive end/edge monster Colton Vasek.
a. I believe he's going to eventually be a Longhorn. There's a lot of positive momentum in his recruitment and a couple of people I communicated with suggested that a flip from Oklahoma to Texas is just a matter of time.
b. It's no small thing that he took an unofficial visit to the 40 Acres this weekend to hang out with Arch Manning and Co. The word I got from a couple of sources was that the Sooners coaching staff was not very pleased about the visit ... at all. At least one person with knowledge of the recruitment described Saturday as a breaking up moment between the two sides.
c. Just for the record, I believe Vasek is a borderline five-star prospect. When you consider that players with his size at his position with his recruiting profile turn into NFL players at 60+% rates, he appears to be one of the biggest sure-things in recruiting. At a minimum, he's going to be a very good college player. At a maximum, he has legit superstar potential.
Inside the 40 Acres
Often imitated, but never duplicated. The best board in the business.texas.forums.rivals.com
No. 5 - Football Scattershooting ...
* A quarter-by-quarter look at Quinn Ewers on Saturday:
1st quarter: 4 of 5 for 36 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (140.5 rating) and -16 yards rushing
2nd quarter: 7 of 10 for 90 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (211.6 rating)
3rd quarter: 4 of 9 for 30 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (72.4 rating) and 3 yards rushing
4th quarter: 2 of 2 for 16 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (332.2 rating)
That's one bad quarter (3rd), one meh quarter (1st), one good quarter (4th) and one exceptional quarter (2nd).
(Note: His third quarter would have been aided very nicely if Casey Cain hauls in the deep pass he dropped.)
* I don't know about the rest of you, but I was really happy that Jordan Whittington finally got into the end zone on Saturday for the first time in seven games. With as well as he's played this season, it's hard to believe that he hadn't scored yet.
* Speaking of Whittington, he had only two targets on Saturday, which seems like a crime against humanity.
* Shame on me for not giving Roschon Johnson more love in my Instant Analysis thoughts. I'm not sure the Longhorns win the game without him. Oh, and this is awesome low-key shade.
* After a really good start, Daniel Trejo has dropped to seventh in the Big 12 in punting average (41.9).
* Barryn Sorrell is having a solid season, but there are still a couple of levels that he hasn't climbed as a player. There's no reason to panic, but he's just not a difference-maker on a consistent basis.
* The Longhorns now rank 88th in the nation in third-down defense (41.4-percent), while the defense still ranks 112th in turnovers gained, even after four created turnovers in the last two weeks.
* It feels like we've all become so trained to call everything targeting that a lot of people lost sight of just how fantastic of a hit that was by Anthony Cook to force that fumble late in the fourth quarter. There was no helmet to helmet contact, just Cook throwing his entire body into the shoulder area. That's a play that should be on teaching videos.
No. 6 - Ho-hum ...
All the No.1 ranked Longhorns volleyball team did over the weekend was mow down No. 18 Baylor in four sets in Waco.
That moves the Longhorns to 14-0 on the season and 8-0 in conference play.
They. Are. Really. Good.
Inside the 40 Acres
Often imitated, but never duplicated. The best board in the business.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think there are multiple things in play, including the issues you mentioned. The pass rush is often an issue. The defensive backs can play better as well. It's a full team issue.
(Buy) Yet, if Steve Sarkisian has the culture he thinks he does, they'll figure it out.
(Sell) I don't believe Texas loses the next two road games. I'm not buying Kansas State.
(Sell) I'm just not sure you're ever going to see it happen. You're just going to have to live with the sketchy game management that Sark can sometimes be guilty of.
(Buy) There are very, very, very few true dominant defenses.
(Sell) I like the young talent in the secondary enough that I would rank the need for help at linebacker higher.
(Sell) Leaning towards Oklahoma State at the moment. Nothing has been decided.
(Sell) No.
(Buy) Texas easily has the best defensive personnel in the Big 12.
(Sell) I kind of believe there will be another.
(Sell) You know better than that.
(Buy) This is what Texas is right now.
(Sell) I think D'Shawn Jamison has been the best player on the Texas defense. Ford is close behind.
(Buy) Yup.
(Sell) Wiley? Jackson? Huh?
That being said, you could make a case that McCoy would start over Casey Cain and that Rising would start over Ewers.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Georgia
2 Ohio State
3. Tennessee
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Ole Miss
7. Alabama
8. TCU
9. UCLA
10. USC
... What a weekend in college football. Don't you dare tell me that the sport is dying. From Texas/Iowa State to Alabama/Tennessee to Oklahoma State/TCU to USC/Utah ... the excitement and quality was at an extreme high.
... Expect a bunch of babies to be born in the state of Tennessee in about nine months. Good for the Vols. That was a long time coming.
... On a day when Bryce Young was 35 of 52 for 455 yards and two touchdowns, the Tide lost. Crazy.
... On a day when Caleb Williams was 25 of 42 for 381 yards and five touchdowns (no interceptions), while also rushing for 57 yards ... the Trojans lost.
... Really enjoyed watching Cam Rising go toe to toe with Caleb Williams and ultimately besting him.
... Blake Corum might just steal Bijan's spot in New York if he keeps it up. What a season he's having.
... Is Syracuse good?
... Pac-12 football... it just means more.
... The Jets smoked the Packers at Lambeau Field. Didn't see that coming from a mile away.
... I sure as hell didn't see a Pickett/Trubisky duo beating Tom Brady's Bucs on Sunday. Where did that come from?
... The dream of a Phillies/Astros World Series is still alive!
... This is what smashing 11 years of frustration looks like.
... I called for a Padres/Dodgers series in the playoffs a few months ago and many of you scoffed at the notion because the Dodges had owned the Padres. So much for that.
... I kind of feel bad for Mariners fans.
... THAT was the Liverpool team I have come to know and worship. For 100 minutes on Sunday against Man City, you'd have never known how poor they've been for most of the season.
... Rough week/weekend for Barcelona. Real Madrid really rubbed it in their face.
No. 9 - The List: Top Dinner Party Scenes ...
I love a good dinner party on TV and in the movies. Get a bunch of people around a table over dinner and all hell can absolutely break loose. Most recently, House of the Dragons had a great dinner party scene, which might just help set off the war that is coming on the show.
It felt like a great time to do a dinner party list.
(Note: I left out movies where people were murdered over dinner. This list is more about laughs than anything else.)
10. Talladega Nights
Who doesn't love Christmas Jesus best?
9. Mrs. Doubtfire
Arguably, this is Robin Williams’ finest moment.
8. Scent of a Woman
Al Pacino makes the list, just not from The Godfather.
7. Succession
Boars on the floor. Poor Greg. Poor Tom.
6. Christmas Vacation
I feel like this will be some folk's No. 1.
5. American Beauty
Although he's been cancelled, Kevin Spacey has never been better than when he asks for the asparagus.
4. Californication
This show was never better than when it did dinner parties and there was at least one in every season. I'm not sure that this is the best one, but for a show that went out of its way to be out of control, this is probably the most out of control version.
3. Nutty Professor
"Hercules, Hercules!"
2. Wedding Crashers
If not for the choice in the No. 1 spot, this would be a serious challenger for the top spot.
1. The Office
Snip-snap, snip-snap! I'm not sure this show has ever been better than when Michael and Jan decided to have friends over for dinner. There's a legit 10 different fantastic moments throughout the dinner and that might be an understatement.
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Call me crazy, but I think Kelvin Banks and Christian Jones have been the best two tackles I've seen in the Big 12 this year.
Regarding Bijan being better as a receiver compared to other great UT running backs, its not just the stats that say it. More than the stats, its the eyeball test. Some of his catches are spectacular even for the best NFL receivers. He is truly a dual threat.
Fun debate, especially when I know I'm on the winning side.
Ced may not have a Big 12 title or a win over OU, but he has 4 wins over A&M (including 283 yards in 2003 and 165 in 2004), which is good enough to offset a single Bijan win over a BAD OU team. Maybe Cedric has a win over Oklahoma in 2001 if Mack didn't sit him on the bench.
I think it's worth noting... If you apply the current CFP rules to Cedric's career, he has a CFP appearance in 2004, which IMO carries more weight than a single Big 12 title. Also, under current Big 12 rules, Cedric would have played in three Big 12 title games instead of one. So Cedric's legacy reads differently under today's college playoff and conference rules.
The final trump card... Cedric never played on a 5-7 team and never lost to Kansas. If you're holding the team's record against OU against Cedric, I can hold the team's overall record the last 3 years against Bijan. Bijan could come back for his senior year and never lose another game, and he would still fall well short of Cedric's 41-8 record at Texas.
Would Cedric average 6.2 yds a carry trying to run zone read with Quinn Ewers and not VY?
Man that’s tough. I’m going Bijan all other things equal, because I don’t think his full skill set can be matched by many, not even Ricky, but the things Ricky did well, he did at a 12 out of 10, which kind of made everything else moot and is why I take him over all. VY and Ricky are kind of on an island like that.
My recollection is that El Ced struggled somewhat before VY and the zone read. A little bit of extra space up the middle made a huge difference. I loved Cedric - a true warrior who always got stronger late in the game. Gone too soon.
Thats a wash comparing the respect that the defense has to give to the passing game versus how defenses would stack the run with VY at QB in 2003 and 2004. Ewers' passing ability opens up the running game similar to VY's running ability.
And clearly Bijan would excel in a zone read offense just like Cedric would excel in an offense boosted by this passing game.
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