Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend

[doughty77]

You never answered the question. How many times would they win if they played 10 times?

I did answer you that it's irrelevant. They played the game already.

If I say Ole Miss wins 7 out of 10 times then what? We just agree to disagree? Good teams cause turnovers. They weren't gifts. And they capitalized to be up 20+ points in the 4th quarter. I don't know how you can honestly say that Alabama is better than Ole Miss.

Will they improve over the course of the season? Absolutely. Should Alabama be ranked top 5-7 right now? I don't think so

 

[Ketchum]

I do know who has won the last 2 times they have played which is the most recent evidence. Bama has trouble with teams that can throw the football. The A&M game will be very telling for them.

just answer the question... please.

 

[Ketchum]

I did answer you that it's irrelevant. They played the game already.

If I say Ole Miss wins 7 out of 10 times then what? We just agree to disagree? Good teams cause turnovers. They weren't gifts. And they capitalized to be up 20+ points in the 4th quarter. I don't know how you can honestly say that Alabama is better than Ole Miss.

Will they improve over the course of the season? Absolutely. Should Alabama be ranked top 5-7 right now? I don't think so

Sometimes upsets occur. I don't believe a single head-to-head outcome is reflective of absolute truth all of the time.

 

[studly#1]

just answer the question... please.

On a neutral field Ole Miss wins 6 to 7 out of 10. When all else is fairly equal and it is there is a saying in football, It's about the QB . I will take Swag over whoever Bama runs out there.

 

[doughty77]

Sometimes upsets occur. I don't believe a single head-to-head outcome is reflective of absolute truth all of the time.

I agree with you on that. However, the last 2 times they played Ole Miss they lost. They played a "spread" Ohio State team a few months ago and lost. They are built to win against teams like Georgia. Wide open teams are harder for them. I do believe Ole Miss would win 6/10 or split 5/10 times.

You never answered me about if you are ranking based on resume or future results? You have argued both ways so far.

As for my rankings, a&m would definitely be ranked ahead of them right now. So would Utah. I go based on resumes. Alabama has to earn it back.

 

[NovoHorn]

I just wish people would be honest and say they have Bama #1 because history tells us they're going to be in the playoff. Don't try and sell me they have looked the best, because that's a f'n lie. They looked like shit against Ole Miss, and they have severe inconsistency at the QB position.

The truth is Bama only has two games they could possibly lose left on the schedule, and one is a one dimensional ground and pound LSU team Saban has no problem defending....The other is Aggy where Bama has a huge coaching advantage.

You can go ahead and plug them into the playoff.

 

[Random]

Agree with Ketch on Alabama. If you didn't see the Georgia beatdown coming you weren't paying attention. Against Ole Miss, Bama had 5 turnovers and no takeaways and still came within 6. I can't think of any teams that can come that close with that big of a takeaway deficit. I don't know any in the top 10 that I'd bet on.

On dealing with the spread, Bama beat A&M 59-0 last year and I think they run a wide open offense. We will know a bit more about Bama in two weeks but I'll be surprised if they aren't in the final 4 at the end of the season. Possible but they have a lot of talent on that team. The only real issue is the lack of a strong QB but he has a lot of talent around him.

I don't really like them but that's the way I see it.

 

[doughty77]

Agree with Ketch on Alabama. If you didn't see the Georgia beatdown coming you weren't paying attention. Against Ole Miss, Bama had 5 turnovers and no takeaways and still came within 6. I can't think of any teams that can come that close with that big of a takeaway deficit. I don't know any in the top 10 that I'd bet on.

On dealing with the spread, Bama beat A&M 59-0 last year and I think they run a wide open offense. We will know a bit more about Bama in two weeks but I'll be surprised if they aren't in the final 4 at the end of the season. Possible but they have a lot of talent on that team. The only real issue is the lack of a strong QB but he has a lot of talent around him.

I don't really like them but that's the way I see it.

So do you rank them #1 now, or top 4 now, or actually wait until they earn it? I don't rank based on speculation

 

[davrob1]

From a column earlier this year:

A little further down in this week’s column (section II), you’ll see the data from this year’s NFL Draft that illustrates the raw value of each star ranking, but for the purpose of enlightening you on the numbers that will be of greatest interest to most of you, know these very basics for the moment based on the data from this year’s results.

a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.

While Strong was at Louisville, he averaged 16 three-star prospects each year from 2010-2012, which means that the national average suggests that 1.14 players from each of those classes would emerge at some point as a drafted NFL prospect.

All told, seven players that arrived as three-star prospects under Strong were drafted this
weekend, which means that on the average, one out of every 2.28 three-star prospects recruited by Strong was eventually developed into an NFL drafted prospects.

Basically, Strong spots and develops three-star prospects better than the rest of the nation develops four-star prospects by a considerable margin and nearly as well as the rest of the nation develops five-star prospects.

So Ketch, humor me with your answer to who wins if you flip rosters?

 

[md20twin]

BUY or SELL) OB staff has a love affair with Strong and is mad at Mack for not being nice to them?

(Sell) Our quest is to always tell you how it is without as much confirmation bias as possible. If you look at the way we covered Mack Brown, I think we were completely fair and deadly accurate with a number of things we reported. Meanwhile, I think we’ve been completely fair with Strong. For instance, what have you read in this column that suggests we’re in his hip pocket because we’re blinded by love?

The 3 times you made excuses for Strong, blaming Mack:
Hell, I’m not even going to get into the quarterback and offensive line disasters he inherited, the fact that Mack Brown used up almost every official visit for every committed player in the 2014 recruiting class or the reality that he started behind his primary competition for almost every single elite prospect in the 2015 class. There’s just not enough time to rehash all of the hurdles Strong had to clear coming into this challenge.

The job is the job and whatever the score was in January of 2014 no longer matters. What matters is what is happening now, which means the days of bringing up Mack Brown’s sins as the head football coach in the last half-decade on the job are over.

If the coaches start Johnathan Gray this weekend against Oklahoma and then replace him down the road with D’Onte Foreman, despite all of the evidence that suggests the move needs to be made now, it’ll remind me of some of those post-OU personnel changes that Mack Brown used to be infamous for. If the back-up is averaging a full yard per carry more than the starter five games into the season and the overall number of touches are reasonable the same, you’re starting the wrong back and giving too many carries to the starter. That truth is even truer when the starter is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That number might get Jerome Bettis into the Hall of Fame, but 99 times out of 100, it represents subpar play.

-----> Love is in the air. Stop blaming Mack. If Strong had reservations about the team Mack left behind, he shouldn't have taken the job. I have really enjoyed reading your posts over the years, but I don't enjoy the blame game.

 

[Random]

Overall the best talent I've seen. Not sure if they end up #1 with a loss but can see them easily winning out. Asking me to pick the team that wins it all is loaded since there are probably 7-8 teams that could. If I had to put money down that is who I would pick, even with a loss already in the books.

 

[doughty77]

Overall the best talent I've seen. Not sure if they end up #1 with a loss but can see them easily winning out. Asking me to pick the team that wins it all is loaded since there are probably 7-8 teams that could. If I had to put money down that is who I would pick, even with a loss already in the books.

No I was just asking if you currently have them ranked #1 or top 4. Can they be the best team when it's all said and done? Sure. I just don't think they should be top 5 right now with their resume

 

[Ketchum]

On a neutral field Ole Miss wins 6 to 7 out of 10. When all else is fairly equal and it is there is a saying in football, It's about the QB . I will take Swag over whoever Bama runs out there.

agree to disagree, but thanks for going out on that limb.

 

[Ketchum]

You never answered me about if you are ranking based on resume or future results? You have argued both ways so far.

As for my rankings, a&m would definitely be ranked ahead of them right now. So would Utah. I go based on resumes. Alabama has to earn it back.

a. It's a combination of both for me. Resumes matter, as does what I think will matter. I don't think it's completely an either/or deal.

h. I have no problem with that position of your rankings. People debating me keep ignoring that the level of faith behind my top 10 is completely minimal. It's a toss up all over the place. That's part of the reason for my selection of Alabama, just as much or more about everyone else.

 

[Ketchum]

I just wish people would be honest and say they have Bama #1 because history tells us they're going to be in the playoff. Don't try and sell me they have looked the best, because that's a f'n lie. They looked like shit against Ole Miss, and they have severe inconsistency at the QB position.

The truth is Bama only has two games they could possibly lose left on the schedule, and one is a one dimensional ground and pound LSU team Saban has no problem defending....The other is Aggy where Bama has a huge coaching advantage.

You can go ahead and plug them into the playoff.

I've already said I think they'll end up with one loss and in the playoff. I'm not being dishonest, if that comment was about me.

 

[studly#1]

agree to disagree, but thanks for going out on that limb.

Bama doesn't even have a bus driver QB and if it did it would have won the NC last year and probably have a dang good chance at this year. Has Bama been out of the top 3 in recruiting the last 5 years ? QB problems damn that sounds familiar.

 

[doughty77]

a. It's a combination of both for me. Resumes matter, as does what I think will matter. I don't think it's completely an either/or deal.

h. I have no problem with that position of your rankings. People debating me keep ignoring that the level of faith behind my top 10 is completely minimal. It's a toss up all over the place. That's part of the reason for my selection of Alabama, just as much or more about everyone else.

Ok. We disagree on how to formulate current rankings, but that's fine. It will all play itself out in the coming weeks

 

[Ketchum]

So Ketch, humor me with your answer to who wins if you flip rosters?

between OU and Texas?

 

[Ketchum]

BUY or SELL) OB staff has a love affair with Strong and is mad at Mack for not being nice to them?

(Sell) Our quest is to always tell you how it is without as much confirmation bias as possible. If you look at the way we covered Mack Brown, I think we were completely fair and deadly accurate with a number of things we reported. Meanwhile, I think we’ve been completely fair with Strong. For instance, what have you read in this column that suggests we’re in his hip pocket because we’re blinded by love?

The 3 times you made excuses for Strong, blaming Mack:
Hell, I’m not even going to get into the quarterback and offensive line disasters he inherited, the fact that Mack Brown used up almost every official visit for every committed player in the 2014 recruiting class or the reality that he started behind his primary competition for almost every single elite prospect in the 2015 class. There’s just not enough time to rehash all of the hurdles Strong had to clear coming into this challenge.

The job is the job and whatever the score was in January of 2014 no longer matters. What matters is what is happening now, which means the days of bringing up Mack Brown’s sins as the head football coach in the last half-decade on the job are over.

If the coaches start Johnathan Gray this weekend against Oklahoma and then replace him down the road with D’Onte Foreman, despite all of the evidence that suggests the move needs to be made now, it’ll remind me of some of those post-OU personnel changes that Mack Brown used to be infamous for. If the back-up is averaging a full yard per carry more than the starter five games into the season and the overall number of touches are reasonable the same, you’re starting the wrong back and giving too many carries to the starter. That truth is even truer when the starter is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That number might get Jerome Bettis into the Hall of Fame, but 99 times out of 100, it represents subpar play.

-----> Love is in the air. Stop blaming Mack. If Strong had reservations about the team Mack left behind, he shouldn't have taken the job. I have really enjoyed reading your posts over the years, but I don't enjoy the blame game.

It's like you ignored the whole second paragraph you cited.

 

[Ketchum]

Bama doesn't even have a bus driver QB and if it did it would have won the NC last year and probably have a dang good chance at this year. Has Bama been out of the top 3 in recruiting the last 5 years ? QB problems damn that sounds familiar.

dude bused the shit out of that game on Saturday

 

[Ketchum]

Ok. We disagree on how to formulate current rankings, but that's fine. It will all play itself out in the coming weeks

People that are voting OSU right now aren't doing so on resumes or who they think is the best team. Out of control, non-specified subjective process.

 

[studly#1]

dude bused the shit out of that game on Saturday

When has Mark Richt won a big game on a big stage while he has been at Georgia? Georgia's run based offense plays right into the strength of Bama which is it's Huge D-Line. Teams that spread them out and have speed/athletes on the outside have abused them. LSU is also a perfect matchup for Bama . The A&M game with the speed and playmakers on the outside will tell a lot more about the Bama D.

 

[doughty77]

People that are voting OSU right now aren't doing so on resumes or who they think is the best team. Out of control, non-specified subjective process.

I agree. And it would be wonderful if the day ever came that teams were ranked based on their current resumes and how they're playing at the time. There would be much less group think and more creative top 25s.

Ohio State does deserve to be ranked #1 over Alabama though

 

[davrob1]

between OU and Texas?

No - last Saturday's disaster with TCU.... I bet Patterson wins with our guys vs Strong with his.

 

[houstonhorn87]

I agree. And it would be wonderful if the day ever came that teams were ranked based on their current resumes and how they're playing at the time. There would be much less group think and more creative top 25s.

Ohio State does deserve to be ranked #1 over Alabama though

that would include having 1 loss teams over undefeated's in certain scenarios too, of course.

 

[Fredr512]

Ketch, during the coach in waiting debacle and the Garret Gilbert didn't work out mess, Is it true that the coaching staff fell apart and stopped coaching up the players? Is it true that the first time that Charlie Strong walked into the locker room he said OH MY WOW Gosh MY WORD etc etc. This was the case of getting the keys to a car and finding out it's got a bad tranny and a cracked block and the guy skipped town and didn't pay the taxes and you can't get plates.

And on top of all that mess haven't the Horns been extremely unlucky?

I am almost starting to think Charlie Strong being successful here wasn't meant to be but I am still holding out hope that the light will come on and maybe the ball will start bouncing our way a few times. I fear if it does not work out, Charlie will go somewhere else and build a power. We gotta let him build it here.

 

[Ketchum]

I agree. And it would be wonderful if the day ever came that teams were ranked based on their current resumes and how they're playing at the time. There would be much less group think and more creative top 25s.

Ohio State does deserve to be ranked #1 over Alabama though

except they haven't played the caliber of foe that Bama has.

 

[Ketchum]

No - last Saturday's disaster with TCU.... I bet Patterson wins with our guys vs Strong with his.

Strong isn't a scrub.

 

[Ketchum]

Ketch, during the coach in waiting debacle and the Garret Gilbert didn't work out mess, Is it true that the coaching staff fell apart and stopped coaching up the players? Is it true that the first time that Charlie Strong walked into the locker room he said OH MY WOW Gosh MY WORD etc etc. This was the case of getting the keys to a car and finding out it's got a bad tranny and a cracked block and the guy skipped town and didn't pay the taxes and you can't get plates.

And on top of all that mess haven't the Horns been extremely unlucky?

I am almost starting to think Charlie Strong being successful here wasn't meant to be but I am still holding out hope that the light will come on and maybe the ball will start bouncing our way a few times. I fear if it does not work out, Charlie will go somewhere else and build a power. We gotta let him build it here.

When coaches believe they are about to get the pink slip, their efforts all over the map, especially in recruiting, tend to suffer.

 

[UTblood63]

Ketch, you're Charlie strong for a day. What do you do? Especially with the OC position?