ADVERTISEMENT

Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Admitting I'm wrong isn't so hard after all...)

The attrition topic always triggers me. Some attrition is inevitable and healthy. But when you go past that point, it becomes a big liability and is a sign of systemic program failure - either in evaluating the talent, character or cultural fit of recruits and/or developing them once in the program by the entire football staff.

Every time somebody says were good but young and just another year away, they should instead be saying we failed with our current upper classes and thus will not be competing at the highest level in the upcoming year.

Having a "young team" is not an "act of god", but instead a failure of our program that should always be presented in that light.
I tend to 100-percent agree.
 
@Ketchum Considering the importance of landing a top RB in this class, do you still view Collins as the most important prospect remaining on the (Texas) board? My view is that landing Evans (or Robinson) is the single most important priority for CTH in terms of 2020 recruiting. Thanks \m/
Yes.

That's not to say he's the best player, but I view the defensive line as a massive need.
 
  • Like
Reactions: YodelingHorn
@Ketchum Where did you have Kyler Murray rated? I agreed with Farrell's take even after seeing him win three state championships at JerryWorld. Clearly, we were wrong
Farrell’s take: Murray transferred as well, but he’s clearly - and I mean clearly - the best quarterback of the group, by far. So why wasn’t he a five-star and ranked higher? You can blame me if you want. I felt he was too small after seeing him at Under Armour week, where he struggled with accuracy. He could run, there was no doubt about that, but he struggled against the best competition seeing downfield and I felt he would not translate to the NFL level. Shows how much I know.
https://n.rivals.com/news/ranking-with-the-stars-kyler-murray
 
The attrition?

It hasn't slowed him down at all, even if 35 players have left the program over the last three calendar cycles of transfers. At some point, the incredible high-volume of turnover has to be accepted as the way and not merely an exception.

I think most know that this is not only a) expected but b) a very good thing. The OVERWHELMING number of transfers are guys that simply never panned out nor are expected to contribute.
 
@Ketchum Where did you have Kyler Murray rated? I agreed with Farrell's take even after seeing him win three state championships at JerryWorld. Clearly, we were wrong
Farrell’s take: Murray transferred as well, but he’s clearly - and I mean clearly - the best quarterback of the group, by far. So why wasn’t he a five-star and ranked higher? You can blame me if you want. I felt he was too small after seeing him at Under Armour week, where he struggled with accuracy. He could run, there was no doubt about that, but he struggled against the best competition seeing downfield and I felt he would not translate to the NFL level. Shows how much I know.
https://n.rivals.com/news/ranking-with-the-stars-kyler-murray
I had Murray ranked No.5 in the state, I believe, higher than Rivals.
 
I think most know that this is not only a) expected but b) a very good thing. The OVERWHELMING number of transfers are guys that simply never panned out nor are expected to contribute.
I think that's been the case in the last few years, but that hasn't been the case historically.
 
No. 2 - Taking a look at the attrition numbers from the last six cycles:

2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)

(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders (dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)

2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)

(11) David Ash (injuries), Duke Catalon (transfer), Cecil Cherry (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Desmond Harrison (dismissed), Darius James (transfer), M.J. McFarland (transfer), Miles Onyegbule (injuries) and Curtis Riser (transfer)

2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)

(8) Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), DeAndre McNeal (transfer), Ryan Newsome (transfer), Derick Roberson (transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer), Jake Raulerson (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)

2017 (8/15/16-8/14/17)

(11) Peyton Aucoin (transfer), Roderick Bernard (retired), Jordan Elliott (transfer), Erick Fowler (transfer), Erik Huhn (transfer), Kai Locksley (transfer), Buck Major (retired), Matthew Merrick (retired/transferred), Jake Oliver (graduated), Marcel Southall (transfer) and Blake Whiteley (transfer)

2018 (8/15/17-8/14/18)

(11) John Bonney (graduate transfer), Eric Cuffee (transfer), Chris Daniels (transfer), Jean Delance (transfer), Edwin Freeman (graduate transfer), Garrett Gray (retired), Mikey Grandy (concussions), Reggie Hemphill-Mapps (transfer), Jake McMillon (retired), Garrett Thomas (retired) and Chris Warren (transfer)

2019 (8/15/18-8/14/19)

(13) DeMarco Boyd (off-field), Shane Buechele (graduate transfer), Toneil Carter (transfer), Davion Curtis (transfer), Andrew Fitzgerald (retired), Tristian Houston (transfer), Patrick Hudson (health), Bru McCoy (transfer), Kyle Porter (transfer), Cameron Rising (transfer), Joshua Rowland (graduate transfer), Cameron Townsend (transfer) and Mike Williams (transfer)

To hammer home my point in my previous reply, I've highlighted the guys who legitimately could be described as contributors. TEN of 67. In other words, a LOT of dead weight cut loose.
 
While there is discussion of the 2021 class having fewer available scholarships, it's not hard to see where normal levels of attrition in the next two years will leave the program able to take 25-man classes and still be able to get under the 85-man scholarship limit.

We discussed this in another thread, but worth repeating that we know 2021 won't be small class. If for some reason it somehow is than given the in-state depth of '21's talent pool that will have been a HUGE mistake on Herman's part. But given how quickly we've gotten out of the box, there literally is ZERO indication the staff is going to be conservative on class size.
 
To hammer home my point in my previous reply, I've highlighted the guys who legitimately could be described as contributors. TEN of 67. In other words, a LOT of dead weight cut loose.
It's misguided to only highlight the "contributors", while not highlighting the guys that absolutely had the talent to be significant ones with added development. For instance, you highlighted two guys alone in 2014 that wouldn't have been as good as some others in that same year had they developed properly.

Kendall Sanders, as an example.
 
Hell, in the history of the Rivals rankings, only five other quarterbacks have been 6.0 high-four stars: Robbie Reid (2004), Stephen McGee (2004), Jevan Snead (2006), and Tyrik Rollison (2009).

woof.
 
It's misguided to only highlight the "contributors", while not highlighting the guys that absolutely had the talent to be significant ones with added development. For instance, you highlighted two guys alone in 2014 that wouldn't have been as good as some others in that same year had they developed properly.

Kendall Sanders, as an example.

Fair enough. That leaves 56 other guys. How many of those types are in there? History has shown few went on to do anything of substance elsewhere:

Roberson
Harrison

Of the most recent guys, you have Bru and Rising as the only real possibilities that will cause us any sort of "regret." So I wasn't THAT misguided. ;)
 
We discussed this in another thread, but worth repeating that we know 2021 won't be small class. If for some reason it somehow is than given the in-state depth of '21's talent pool that will have been a HUGE mistake on Herman's part. But given how quickly we've gotten out of the box, there literally is ZERO indication the staff is going to be conservative on class size.
I think they are just doing that to create the idea that there's a run on a shortage of spots. We've seen the tactic a lot over the years.
 
I think that's been the case in the last few years, but that hasn't been the case historically.

I would disagree. I'm sure there are a handful of names here or there, but even in the Mack era I don't exactly thinking too many times "dang, I wish he had stayed."
 
Fair enough. That leaves 56 other guys. How many of those types are in there? History has shown few went on to do anything of substance elsewhere:

Roberson
Harrison

Of the most recent guys, you have Bru and Rising as the only real possibilities that will cause us any sort of "regret." So I wasn't THAT misguided. ;)
I think the number is higher than you're conceding, but I think the good news for Herman is that he's losing guys that I wouldn't include in the massive upside department.

The program has also stopped losing guys to drugs, arrests and dumb shit for the most part.
 
If you eyeball the current roster objectively, and factor in typical attrition "profiles" you can easily identify 10-12 candidates amongst the Junior and Soph classes.
 
Man, that Tarantino list reminds me of just how many great, great scenes there have been in his movies. There are many scenes from Django that could be included as well.

 
... Brooks Koepka won a tournament this weekend and it wasn't a major. Go figure.

It was a big event though. There was really zero doubt he was going to whip Rory's ass yesterday. One guy is rock solid from chest up. The other guy is Rory. Koepka is easily the closest we've seen to Tiger's prime in terms of when the chips are down. Until further notice, he is easily the favorite for any major. At this point it would be rather stunning if he doesn't win the Fed Ex cup. Already has POY wrapped up.
 
Attrition occurs for 3 reasons: injuries; dismissals; and transfers. Injuries are an inevitable part of football. Dismissals are because of a breach of discipline. The program experienced a number of dismissals under Strong and Herman because Club Mack's look-the-other-way drug compliance was no longer tolerated. Tranfers occur because a player either knows he's about to be dismissed or because he believes his path to playing time is blocked by talent above him on the roster. The increase of transfers for the latter reason is a sign of important progress in building a championship program.
 
Last edited:
True Romance is a top 5 movie of mine. You picked the best clip too. Good stuff, Ketch. My Monday is off to a great start.
 
If you eyeball the current roster objectively, and factor in typical attrition "profiles" you can easily identify 10-12 candidates amongst the Junior and Soph classes.
You can do that every single year in every program. The key is to get those 10-12 to transfer and not the ones you want to stick around.
 
It was a big event though. There was really zero doubt he was going to whip Rory's ass yesterday. One guy is rock solid from chest up. The other guy is Rory. Koepka is easily the closest we've seen to Tiger's prime in terms of when the chips are down. Until further notice, he is easily the favorite for any major. At this point it would be rather stunning if he doesn't win the Fed Ex cup. Already has POY wrapped up.
He's who we thought Jordan was going to be.
 
True Romance is a top 5 movie of mine. You picked the best clip too. Good stuff, Ketch. My Monday is off to a great start.
Glad I could contribute. I'm not sure I've ever done a top 10 with less nit-picking. :)
 
You can do that every single year in every program. The key is to get those 10-12 to transfer and not the ones you want to stick around.

Yep. And I have zero doubt the rather large majority of the attrition will continue to be the ones the needed to be culled.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Craben
He's who we thought Jordan was going to be.

Very valid point. 24 months ago the edge I gave to JS over the other current "flavors" such as DJ, JT and Rory was his Tiger-like fire he had. Unfortunately, and there were suspicions even then, that "fire" was too often loss of his emotions and inability. But Brooks is like that great white shark that just calmly swims around before he needs to attack. It also helps that his game, literally, is far superior overall than Spieth's.
 
Whatever happened to the NCAA attempting to stop attrition with grad rates and penalties for not reaching them? The portal will blow that away.
 
Very valid point. 24 months ago the edge I gave to JS over the other current "flavors" such as DJ, JT and Rory was his Tiger-like fire he had. Unfortunately, and there were suspicions even then, that "fire" was too often loss of his emotions and inability. But Brooks is like that great white shark that just calmly swims around before he needs to attack. It also helps that his game, literally, is far superior overall than Spieth's.
Great characterization of Brooks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RLong68
Whatever happened to the NCAA attempting to stop attrition with grad rates and penalties for not reaching them? The portal will blow that away.
The NCAA is worthless.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT