Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Coaching update, Sam's meeting with Tom and more...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
You’ve made that clear in every thread you post in. It’s going to be fun to remind you how poor of a read you had on the situation when he’s fired in the next couple of weeks.
Although Texas plays in a bowl game in less than 48 hours (it's true!), I know what you want from me.
You want an update, even if there's not much to say.
Well, when it comes to using a lot of words to say absolutely nothing at all, I'm your man! So, let's get into it.
a. All of the quiet that has taken place for the last couple of weeks was completely expected. In fact, I told you guys 22 days ago to expect a very ominous silence to follow the program around for the rest of December and through the bowl game. Barring Urban Meyer calling Texas officials and telling them that he wanted the job immediately, the expectation has always existed that Tom Herman would coach the bowl game.
b. There remains an intense desire to make a coaching change following the bowl game. If you want to know why Chris Del Conte's vote of confidence from a couple of weeks ago was so.... hmmm... let's call it wishy-washy... it has everything to do with this desire.
Make no mistake about it, the talk among BMDs (big money donors) is that change is on the way, come hell or high water. The talk is emphatic, defiant and cocksure. Meanwhile, the rhetoric coming out of the athletic department is less emphatic. My highest-level sourcing is somewhere in between, meaning that depending on the day and the source, the confidence level can range anywhere between 3 and 10.
c. Everyone agrees that vetting the availability of the desired candidates continues to take place behind the scenes.
d. The Urban Meyer stuff is tough to get a handle on. There continues to be an expectation that the Longhorns will go after Meyer with an improved gameplan or offer, but ironclad details have been tough to come by. In talking with sources connected to Meyer's family on Sunday, there was laughter about the persistence of the Texas pursuit. Frankly, the folks in Ohio would be so shocked to see Meyer end up at Texas that the entire state would take it as a sign of the apocalypse. The NFL speculation this weekend is being taken more seriously than Texas when talking to non-Texas sources. Pay attention to anything YahooSports' Pete Thamel reports in the coming days.
e. Although the most desired back-up choices are considered long-shots, I've spoken to sources who believe potential opportunities could exist. Texas absolutely will not reveal its cards with those potential targets before their seasons are complete.
f. The vibe inside the athletic department can best be described as pragmatic. While the BMDs want change no matter what, decision makers are still dubious over Texas being able to land Meyer or another top-tier coach in the next couple of weeks. These folks are more lukewarm about making a change for the sake of change unless there's a home run available.
Bottom line from my perspective?
I haven't had my highest-level sourcing tell me that change is definitely happening, and until that happens, I'm going to ride the fence a little. I refuse to believe that Texas will fire Herman without a replacement in place because the school does not want to "pull an Auburn".
No. 2 - About Sam's pending decision...
A week ago, I would have told you there's no way in hell Sam Ehlinger returns for the 2021 season.
The combination of Ehlinger hearing positive NFL talk behind the scenes and the fact that 2020 has been miserable on so many levels had me thinking he would be on the first train out of town as soon as the final snap of the season is played.
Yet, sources with knowledge of the situation informed me over the weekend that Ehlinger is giving serious thought to returning for another season after meeting with Herman less than two weeks ago to talk about the possibility. Herman made a strong enough case that it has given his quarterback something to think about.
At the root of the argument for Sam's return:
* Improve his NFL draft stock with a second season under the care of Mike Yurcich and come out in a year when there aren't potentially 10 quarterbacks ranked ahead of him.
* Improve the taste in his mouth from what has been a dreadful final season. Returning would give him a chance to not only beat Oklahoma and contend for a Big 12 Championship, but it would likely be a re-do with a full off-season, fans returning to the stands in large numbers and no Eyes of Texas distraction.
It's under consideration.
No. 3 - My reaction to the Sam stuff ...
If I'm Herman, I totally understand hoping Ehlinger returns.
It's like being on "Let's Make A Deal" and having $10,000 in your hand and being asked to give it up because there's a strong chance there might be a new car behind curtain No.3.
As the president of the Hudson Card Fan Club, I think his upside as a passer is higher than Ehlinger's, especially in 2022 and 2023. Yet, I can't say for certain that a kid that has never had a full off-season in a college program is definitely going to be better than a guy who is pretty much a Top 6 quarterback in the history of the program.
I can't imagine it would make the quarterbacks on campus happy, but Ehlinger's return makes the 2021 team better. Period.
The big question is whether being better in 2021 potentially hurts you in 2022 or 2023 because of curbing the development of Card. That's a tough one to answer.
No. 4 - A quick personal rant ...
As Texas looks to add pieces to the 2021 recruiting class through transfers, there are a couple of rules that should be followed.
a. Transfers that can make a definite impact on the 2021 season are more important/valuable than taking three-star or two-star talent that have 85-90 percent miss rates and almost certainly will take two or three seasons before they might make good on that 10-percent hit rate.
b. If you're going to take a flyer on three-star level prospects, they need to be from the state of Texas. Full-stop.
In a situation where failure exceeds success by a margin of 10 to 1 with high school prospects, all offers should be seen as investments into areas where you'll want to have success in the future. Metroplex. Houston. East Texas. When Texas received a commitment over the weekend from Bryan (Texas) Rudder receiver Keithron Lee, it ticked multiple boxes beyond his talent.
The Texas program should never go out of state for non-premium recruits. Never. Unless it’s a special situation, like landing an offensive lineman from the West or Midwest regions of the country, all lower-end recruiting targets should be from the state of Texas. When I see the Texas coaches combing out of state areas for players that should easily be found at home, it makes me think they can't see the forest because of the trees.
Details matter.
No. 5 - Five things to watch in the Alamo Bowl ...
a. Sam, Sam, Sam. Given his current situation, what kind of performance will we see and through which lens will we see it? If Texas wins and he's the MVP, is that good or bad for a return? Same with losing? Would he dare get up on a stage, accept the MVP trophy and then shout out, "I'm coming baaaaaaaack!"
b. Feed Bijan. It feels like he's the future, which means that treating him as such in the final game of the 2020 season would represent a good thing. Ending the season with the third 100-yard outing in his last four games would be a sign that he's the top weapon for the program going into the 2021 season.
c. A suddenly young team at center and left tackle looked pretty damn good the only time we saw them. Another quality performance from Jake Majors and Andrej Keric would go a long way toward feeling good about the offensive line going into 2021.
d. How will Chris Ash create a pass rush without Joseph Ossai?
e. Does this team show up and play for Herman?
No. 6 - The Greg Brown Show ...
Without any hoops this weekend, I stumbled across this from January and thought I would share it.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That has not happened.
(Sell) I hope I described the situation well in the first section, but I understand why they are saying 100 percent, but I wouldn't quite go that high, even if I'm sure we've heard from similar folks that it will be 100 percent. I just know that not everyone involved in the process would use that number, which is why I won't.
(Sell) I love your optimism though.
(Buy) It's just a game.
(Buy) I just don't know when.
(Sell) I'm not convinced of that just yet, but I'm open-minded.
(Sell) Texas will take a shot and might get him a raise, but the betting favorite would be against it happening for the Longhorns. From what I know, there are a few areas where Texas believes it might be able to exploit - money, recruiting advantages and a willingness to pay assistants top salaries.
(Buy) I'll always believe that so much more could have been accomplished.
(Buy) Can? Sure. Will or would? I don't know if I believe that at all.
(Buy) Casey Thompson would probably find that to be a tough pill to swallow.
(Sell) The original is one of the GOATs and cannot be defeated, but I'm all-in on giving it every chance to prove me wrong.
(Sell) I don't sense that the people in the program believe he's going to be THAT good.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports...
... Rest in peace, Ty Jordan.
... I lied. Outside of a little bit of Liberty/Coastal Carolina, I didn't watch any bowl games last week.
... All it took for me to get into the Dallas game and root for a win was to see DeSean Jackson clowning on the Cowboys in the first quarter. Anger activated. Draft position be damned.
... Go ahead and extend Mitchell Trubisky. I double-dog dare you, Chicago.
... The Steelers are back?
... Until Arizona kicks Kliff Kingsbury to the curb, that franchise is going nowhere.
... I still can't believe the Raiders lost that game.
... I still can't believe the Jets are on a two-game winning streak and blew the chance to land Trevor Lawrence.
... If you faced Alvin Kamara in your fantasy championship game this weekend, you never had a chance.
... This needs to be a reality TV show.
... Ridiculous
... The Clippers should be relegated for losing by 51 points to Dallas. That just can't happen.
... The Brooklyn Nets look like a team to watch in May.
... This felt like the truest tweet I saw all weekend.
No. 9 - The List: Hall and Oates
I've been on a huge Hall and Oates kick over the course of the last few weeks. In fact, after decades of listing "Maneater" as my top choice, I've decided a change must be made.
10. Kiss on My List
9. I Can't Go For That
8. Say It Isn't So
7. Private Eyes
6. One on One
5. Rich Girl
4. You Make My Dreams (Come True)
3. She's Gone
2. Maneater
1. Sara Smile
The following lyrics from Daryl Hall might be the sexiest verse in the history of popular music (no hyperbole):
"If you feel like leaving, you know you can go
But why don't you stay until tomorrow?
If you want to be free, you know, all you got to do is say so
And when you feel cold, I'll warm you
And when you feel you can't go on, I'll come and hold you
It's you and me forever"
No.10 - And finally...
Short and sweet - here's to 2020 ending and 2021 being the kind of year that we can all embrace with open arms.
Cheers!
After 45-60 days of coaching drama, after 9 months of COVID drama and after 4 months of general UT related drama (BLM, Eyes, etc.) I know one thing for sure. This is one crazy window of activity for UT alumni and fans.
Majority of OB has known for 2 seasons TH was not the right head coach and that the longer this all went on the worse our long term foundation building through recruiting was going to suffer. No surprise we are here now and looking about as desperate for leadership that I can recall in recent memory. Sad ass state of affairs. OU and Aggie must be loving this. TX recruits are easy pickings. We are truly dysfunctional.
My only wish is for CDC to hold his coaches and himself very accountable for the state of affairs and act in a more business like manner.
Lastly, I am a huge Sam E fan. However, I think its time both sides moved on. Another year at UT is not going to get him any more ready for the NFL. And, we need to give our in-waiting QBs a real chance at PT. Sam E is a top 5 UT QB for me and will go down in the history as one of our greats not only for his stats but more important...his effort and heart.
There was nothing better in the 80’s than hearing Hall and Oates in the video game arcade while blasting shit up on Stargate, Robotron and Tempest...good times.
This. Everyone needs to just keep saying this until they understand it. I mean, even a placeholder gives everyone, including recruits, a reason to say maybe. Right now, it’s like trying to lure a spouse who’s already moved out and filed for divorce back into the house. It’s not 0.00% but it’s close.
Thank you sir we’ll done!
Although Texas plays in a bowl game in less than 48 hours (it's true!), I know what you want from me.
You want an update, even if there's not much to say.
Well, when it comes to using a lot of words to say absolutely nothing at all, I'm your man! So, let's get into it.
a. All of the quiet that has taken place for the last couple of weeks was completely expected. In fact, I told you guys 22 days ago to expect a very ominous silence to follow the program around for the rest of December and through the bowl game. Barring Urban Meyer calling Texas officials and telling them that he wanted the job immediately, the expectation has always existed that Tom Herman would coach the bowl game.
b. There remains an intense desire to make a coaching change following the bowl game. If you want to know why Chris Del Conte's vote of confidence from a couple of weeks ago was so.... hmmm... let's call it wishy-washy... it has everything to do with this desire.
Make no mistake about it, the talk among BMDs (big money donors) is that change is on the way, come hell or high water. The talk is emphatic, defiant and cocksure. Meanwhile, the rhetoric coming out of the athletic department is less emphatic. My highest-level sourcing is somewhere in between, meaning that depending on the day and the source, the confidence level can range anywhere between 3 and 10.
c. Everyone agrees that vetting the availability of the desired candidates continues to take place behind the scenes.
d. The Urban Meyer stuff is tough to get a handle on. There continues to be an expectation that the Longhorns will go after Meyer with an improved gameplan or offer, but ironclad details have been tough to come by. In talking with sources connected to Meyer's family on Sunday, there was laughter about the persistence of the Texas pursuit. Frankly, the folks in Ohio would be so shocked to see Meyer end up at Texas that the entire state would take it as a sign of the apocalypse. The NFL speculation this weekend is being taken more seriously than Texas when talking to non-Texas sources. Pay attention to anything YahooSports' Pete Thamel reports in the coming days.
e. Although the most desired back-up choices are considered long-shots, I've spoken to sources who believe potential opportunities could exist. Texas absolutely will not reveal its cards with those potential targets before their seasons are complete.
f. The vibe inside the athletic department can best be described as pragmatic. While the BMDs want change no matter what, decision makers are still dubious over Texas being able to land Meyer or another top-tier coach in the next couple of weeks. These folks are more lukewarm about making a change for the sake of change unless there's a home run available.
Bottom line from my perspective?
I haven't had my highest-level sourcing tell me that change is definitely happening, and until that happens, I'm going to ride the fence a little. I refuse to believe that Texas will fire Herman without a replacement in place because the school does not want to "pull an Auburn".
No. 2 - About Sam's pending decision...
A week ago, I would have told you there's no way in hell Sam Ehlinger returns for the 2021 season.
The combination of Ehlinger hearing positive NFL talk behind the scenes and the fact that 2020 has been miserable on so many levels had me thinking he would be on the first train out of town as soon as the final snap of the season is played.
Yet, sources with knowledge of the situation informed me over the weekend that Ehlinger is giving serious thought to returning for another season after meeting with Herman less than two weeks ago to talk about the possibility. Herman made a strong enough case that it has given his quarterback something to think about.
At the root of the argument for Sam's return:
* Improve his NFL draft stock with a second season under the care of Mike Yurcich and come out in a year when there aren't potentially 10 quarterbacks ranked ahead of him.
* Improve the taste in his mouth from what has been a dreadful final season. Returning would give him a chance to not only beat Oklahoma and contend for a Big 12 Championship, but it would likely be a re-do with a full off-season, fans returning to the stands in large numbers and no Eyes of Texas distraction.
It's under consideration.
No. 3 - My reaction to the Sam stuff ...
If I'm Herman, I totally understand hoping Ehlinger returns.
It's like being on "Let's Make A Deal" and having $10,000 in your hand and being asked to give it up because there's a strong chance there might be a new car behind curtain No.3.
As the president of the Hudson Card Fan Club, I think his upside as a passer is higher than Ehlinger's, especially in 2022 and 2023. Yet, I can't say for certain that a kid that has never had a full off-season in a college program is definitely going to be better than a guy who is pretty much a Top 6 quarterback in the history of the program.
I can't imagine it would make the quarterbacks on campus happy, but Ehlinger's return makes the 2021 team better. Period.
The big question is whether being better in 2021 potentially hurts you in 2022 or 2023 because of curbing the development of Card. That's a tough one to answer.
No. 4 - A quick personal rant ...
As Texas looks to add pieces to the 2021 recruiting class through transfers, there are a couple of rules that should be followed.
a. Transfers that can make a definite impact on the 2021 season are more important/valuable than taking three-star or two-star talent that have 85-90 percent miss rates and almost certainly will take two or three seasons before they might make good on that 10-percent hit rate.
b. If you're going to take a flyer on three-star level prospects, they need to be from the state of Texas. Full-stop.
In a situation where failure exceeds success by a margin of 10 to 1 with high school prospects, all offers should be seen as investments into areas where you'll want to have success in the future. Metroplex. Houston. East Texas. When Texas received a commitment over the weekend from Bryan (Texas) Rudder receiver Keithron Lee, it ticked multiple boxes beyond his talent.
The Texas program should never go out of state for non-premium recruits. Never. Unless it’s a special situation, like landing an offensive lineman from the West or Midwest regions of the country, all lower-end recruiting targets should be from the state of Texas. When I see the Texas coaches combing out of state areas for players that should easily be found at home, it makes me think they can't see the forest because of the trees.
Details matter.
No. 5 - Five things to watch in the Alamo Bowl ...
a. Sam, Sam, Sam. Given his current situation, what kind of performance will we see and through which lens will we see it? If Texas wins and he's the MVP, is that good or bad for a return? Same with losing? Would he dare get up on a stage, accept the MVP trophy and then shout out, "I'm coming baaaaaaaack!"
b. Feed Bijan. It feels like he's the future, which means that treating him as such in the final game of the 2020 season would represent a good thing. Ending the season with the third 100-yard outing in his last four games would be a sign that he's the top weapon for the program going into the 2021 season.
c. A suddenly young team at center and left tackle looked pretty damn good the only time we saw them. Another quality performance from Jake Majors and Andrej Keric would go a long way toward feeling good about the offensive line going into 2021.
d. How will Chris Ash create a pass rush without Joseph Ossai?
e. Does this team show up and play for Herman?
No. 6 - The Greg Brown Show ...
Without any hoops this weekend, I stumbled across this from January and thought I would share it.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) That has not happened.
(Sell) I hope I described the situation well in the first section, but I understand why they are saying 100 percent, but I wouldn't quite go that high, even if I'm sure we've heard from similar folks that it will be 100 percent. I just know that not everyone involved in the process would use that number, which is why I won't.
(Sell) I love your optimism though.
(Buy) It's just a game.
(Buy) I just don't know when.
(Sell) I'm not convinced of that just yet, but I'm open-minded.
(Sell) Texas will take a shot and might get him a raise, but the betting favorite would be against it happening for the Longhorns. From what I know, there are a few areas where Texas believes it might be able to exploit - money, recruiting advantages and a willingness to pay assistants top salaries.
(Buy) I'll always believe that so much more could have been accomplished.
(Buy) Can? Sure. Will or would? I don't know if I believe that at all.
(Buy) Casey Thompson would probably find that to be a tough pill to swallow.
(Sell) The original is one of the GOATs and cannot be defeated, but I'm all-in on giving it every chance to prove me wrong.
(Sell) I don't sense that the people in the program believe he's going to be THAT good.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports...
... Rest in peace, Ty Jordan.
... I lied. Outside of a little bit of Liberty/Coastal Carolina, I didn't watch any bowl games last week.
... All it took for me to get into the Dallas game and root for a win was to see DeSean Jackson clowning on the Cowboys in the first quarter. Anger activated. Draft position be damned.
... Go ahead and extend Mitchell Trubisky. I double-dog dare you, Chicago.
... The Steelers are back?
... Until Arizona kicks Kliff Kingsbury to the curb, that franchise is going nowhere.
... I still can't believe the Raiders lost that game.
... I still can't believe the Jets are on a two-game winning streak and blew the chance to land Trevor Lawrence.
... If you faced Alvin Kamara in your fantasy championship game this weekend, you never had a chance.
... This needs to be a reality TV show.
... Ridiculous
... The Clippers should be relegated for losing by 51 points to Dallas. That just can't happen.
... The Brooklyn Nets look like a team to watch in May.
... This felt like the truest tweet I saw all weekend.
No. 9 - The List: Hall and Oates
I've been on a huge Hall and Oates kick over the course of the last few weeks. In fact, after decades of listing "Maneater" as my top choice, I've decided a change must be made.
10. Kiss on My List
9. I Can't Go For That
8. Say It Isn't So
7. Private Eyes
6. One on One
5. Rich Girl
4. You Make My Dreams (Come True)
3. She's Gone
2. Maneater
1. Sara Smile
The following lyrics from Daryl Hall might be the sexiest verse in the history of popular music (no hyperbole):
"If you feel like leaving, you know you can go
But why don't you stay until tomorrow?
If you want to be free, you know, all you got to do is say so
And when you feel cold, I'll warm you
And when you feel you can't go on, I'll come and hold you
It's you and me forever"
No.10 - And finally...
Short and sweet - here's to 2020 ending and 2021 being the kind of year that we can all embrace with open arms.
Cheers!
I have enjoyed seeing baseball and basketball games, men's and women's, that i would have missed but for LHN. I have watched many old football games, gotten the chance to see former players in Longhorn uniforms again. Watched 2008 Ou game today. I would have missed many hours of Texas sports that I have enjoyed if LHN did not exist.
I am no expert about programming. Much of the programming does not interest me, but I take that to be because of the need for balance of non-revenue sports, as well as programs about academic aspects of UT. Certainly, the sportscasters could have been better in many instances.
On balance, I much prefer having LHN than not having it and missing all the content I enjoy watching.
There's still doubt in my mind, biut I understand why you would feel that way.
I'm coming around Elliott for the very reasons why Urban isn't keen on the college game. The dude is all about the hustle and this sport is about to be a serious hustle.
It's hard for me to come up with names because this has to be based in some sort of reality.
I suppose Kelly would be right up there because he's a guarantee on the box.
Lukewarm is a good description of my sense of this program. Or as Yeshua of Nazareth said So, because you are lukewarm--neither hot nor cold--I am about to spit you out of my mouth. Herman and the Athletic Department have made too many mistakes in the last few years.
“At the end of the day, CDC should not fire Herman without his upgrade being more than guesswork.”
Is how that sentence should read Hook Em
“Pull an Auburn?” You mean fire an underperforming HC and replace him with a rock solid hire?
That's not quite the way that expression is perceived.
You and I might see it that way. What Texas sees is a situation where the school embarrassed itself in public in many fashions, only to end up spending tens of millions so that it could land a solid hire that is less proven than the hire it had in a lot of ways.
Typical Texas. You know who the only people concerned with the optics of the Auburn search are Texas folks. Meanwhile, Harsin and Auburn are full speed ahead while Texas is trying to figure out how to get a little bit pregnant.
Not surprising. CDC is not a guy who really desires to fire a HC. I'm sure he has spent the last couple of weeks or so selling Mensa and '21 to whomever.
LOL. Texas literally has become Lola in Copacabana.
BTW, I would also pay attention to anything @jshorn drops in the coming days.
Year 5 isn't going to show us anything different from years 1-4. Jeezus, if you are a FOUR year starting QB and still regarding as "meh" by the scouts then year 5 won't change anything appreciably.
I like Sam. A lot. However, it's time to move on. Simple as that.
Don't underestimate the weakness of CDC. Not to mention history. Of the five previous HCs we've had since DKR, FOUR of them were canned with records of 5-6, 5-6, 4-7 & 5-6. Only Mack had a winning mark when he "resigned/fired." If Mensa finishes 8-3 including a 4th straight bowl win, rest assured that's something CDC is going to be selling as much as possible to people.
There's no doubt Thompson will leave. Particularly since he apparently is set to graduate after just 3 years.
