The issue I have with this super aggressive go for it all the time approach is Herman simply didn't have the offensive personnel or brilliant play-caller to be successful with this strategy. He went for it while ignoring the flaws built into his team's offense.
Sure his magic chart might work out if you have the 05 Texas or 05 USC offense, or Tom Brady or Carson Wentz at QB, but he failed to re-calibrate the chart for the 2017 version of the Texas offense. If he had, the chart would have told him to take points in most cases because your offense has only a 5% chance of converting 4th and goal from the 5 yard line.
Amen. I love Tom Herman, but his ridiculous “binder” and crazy overly aggressive and just plain bad decisions early in the season might have cost Texas wins over Maryland and USC and almost turned the victory over K-State in OT into a loss. Now, if Herman had Vince Young, a good OL, Jamaal Charles at RB and a poor defense, FINE, go for it on 4th and 2. But the following “binder” decisions were bad game-coaching decisions that would make DKR, Tom Landry and Mack Brown shake their heads:
- Goes for it on 4th and goal at the Maryland 4 on the first drive of the 3rd quarter down 19?
- Going for 2 after cutting the Maryland lead to 10 midway through the 3rd quarter?
- Going for it on 4th and 2 from midfield trailing Maryland by only 3 with the whole 4th quarter to go, a great punter and Maryland now depending on a shaky pure freshman QB?
- Going for it on 4th and goal at the USC 3-yard line, on the road with a pure freshman QB in his 2nd start and foregoing the precious opportunity to grab the lead 3-0?
- Going for it on 4th and goal at the K-State 2-yard line in the 1st quarter with the score tied?
We dodged a bullet and won the K-State game in OT, but early victories over Maryland and #3 ranked USC on the road would’ve triggered major momentum and a likely 10 win season.
And I didn’t even mention the fateful 3rd and 2 pass play call against Tech from the Tech 39-yard line with 2:10 to go, Tech down to 1 timeout and the world’s greatest punter ready to pin them inside their 10 IF Texas fails to make the 1st down running the football (thereby causing Tech to burn their final time out).
I believe Herman will be far better at game-management next season...