Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Ewers to run it back in 2024?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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If I am given a choice between a self-doubting coach and one that does not doubt himself, I will take the latter all day. But Sark always talks about how "there is always opportunity for improvement" including the coaching. That is a good worldly view in my opinion, and it is the opposite of self-doubt for someone that is bold enough to call himself out to make changes for sake of improvement. Is there anyone around Sark that he listens to that could give him some constructive feedback? It sounds too eerily similar to the Jimbo situation for me (could 2023 be Sark's equivalent to Jimbo's 2020 season?).
a. It still matters a lot, but it matters less and less when you can't come close to replicating that performance.
b. It reminds me of recruiting when a player moves up and it causes all players below him to drop a spot.
He and Ewers might be the best two in the nation next year.
All the self-hating Longhorn fans love to compare Bama's favorable resume bullet points to Texas winning close games against conference rivals, but they leave out facts like Bama barely beating Aggy and beating a horrible Arkansas team 24-21 in Tuscaloosa.
And for everyone saying that Bama would for sure beat us this time, that was the conventional wisdom back in September when they were a double digit favorite over us, and we beat their ass, and we'd do it again if we played them next week.
Also, there is no precedent for a team that lost head-to-head getting in the playoff over the team they lost to, IF they have the same record. Remember when Penn State won the B1G and also beat OSU head to head, but OSU made the playoff because they were 11-1 and PSU was 11-2. A lot people lost their minds over Penn State getting snubbed. Imagine the pushback if 12-1 Bama made it over 12-1 Texas.
I guess I could look it up , but how many tight ends are taken in first round on average ? If Sanders stays, would the move to number one tight end in draft be in the Milion(s) more on rookie draft contract ? But I guess sadly, Brooks shows what can negatively happen by staying.
If Texas and Bama both win out I don't care about how any of it is done. This isn't a single data point that trumps "Texas won by 10 at Alabama on the field". Nothing comes close.
There is no world where any justification to change that is anything other than a screw job to Texas. I'm not saying that it won't happen, but there is no scenario where it's logically appropriate.
There is no world where any justification to change that is anything other than a screw job to Texas. I'm not saying that it won't happen, but there is no scenario where it's logically appropriate.
I was specifically referring to the 4-team playoff, 2008 was the BCS, not a playoff. But even if we include the BCS, OU was a 12-1 conference champion and we were 11-1. We absolutely got screwed on the tiebreaker to get in the Big 12 championship game, and I still believe that Art Briles (or his SID, whatever) voting us #5 in the human poll screwed us, but as far as the National Championship game determination, that was all done by a formula including human and computer polls, there was no committee that selected OU over us.
The bottom line is that 2008 should have everyone's head on a swivel.
It was also a 3-way tie, which makes it a different situation. I am not predicting one way or another what would happen if it comes down to Texas/Bama, but they are not apples to apples comparisons.
It makes me sad to think that the rosters in the early 2000s were so stacked with talent and it took Vince becoming Superman for us to get over the hump...
It was earlier in the season which was great as it wasn't 40 degrees and dark by 7pm.
I don't think it was as comfortable as the 17-7 score indicates. I'm pretty sure on both TD drives, ISU committed stupid personal fouls on either 3rd or 4th downs that allowed us to eventually score.
On top of that there were two very questionable fumble reviews that both went Texas' way.
The bottom line is, playing in Ames at night is like playing in Mahattan or Lubbock at night. If we don't come in and handle business early, and then KEEP OUR FOOT ON THE DAMN GAS, they will get a ton of momentum from a drunken, rowdy fan base and Dan Campbell won't shoot himself in the foot the way Chris Klieman did.
Texas should win, but I don't think we'll be able to limp to a win the way we have the last few weeks.
I'm not going to argue that we should win. We should beat them 9.5 times out of 10.
My argument is, much like Lubbock, weird things happen at night there and if we limp into the 4th qtr giving them momentum the way we have 3 out of the last 4 weeks, Dan Campbell will capitalize on it.
Yeah the transitive properties that work so well in Algebra do not correlate to conference football or basketball games.
I mean, you only had to go back THIRTY FIVE years to come up with an example. That could be a clue
We should have beaten them in 15 when we lost. We should have beaten them in 19 when we lost. We should have beaten them in 21 when we lost.
I sense a theme.
It could easily be three one loss conference champions for two playoff spots. Which essentially makes it a three way tie. Also, if it comes down to bama and Texas, that would mean the SEC gets left out altogether if bama is left out. Is that going to happen?
Would be interesting to know if the Ewers scuttlebutt is actually from his family or just staff trying to put 2 + 2 together thinking “well, he’s not a top 5 QB so surely he’ll return.”
In the last 5 drafts, an average of seven QBs per year have been drafted before the end of round 4.
In the last 5 drafts, an average of seven QBs per year have been drafted before the end of round 4.
It wasn't the playoffs but I sure do remember 2008 and 45-35 like it was yesterday.
Brooks injury also matters in the playoff consideration, even if Texas wins out. The committee considers injuries and the Texas team that beat bama had brooks. That team doesn’t exist anymore.
The bottom line is as it has been: we need the ACC or the PAC to stumble to have a chance.
The bottom line is as it has been: we need the ACC or the PAC to stumble to have a chance.
It won’t be a situation where all 3 teams have played each other like in 08.
I’m not saying Bama would or wouldn’t jump us. I’m just saying 2008 isn’t exactly the same thing.
Good update but have a problem with your assumptions of " underwhelming freshman " and " not-always-trusted sophomore " running backs as replacement for Brooks.At the first of the season, Brooks was not the starting RB but as he had to step in for Baxter and got a chance to prove himself with game experience I dion't see why a similar circumstance could occur with Baxter or Blue. They were both initially rated equal to or higher than Brooks. I'm just optimistic that they will perform.It feels like we all need to have a conversation about where things stand for the Texas football program going into Week 11 of the season.
There seems to be a rush to plant a flag on either side of Planet Contrarian that it becomes very hard to fully recognize that the following items are not mutually exclusive from each other.
a. The Longhorns are having the best season this program has seen since 2009. The team is 9-1. Again, that hasn't been done since 2009. The team is ranked seventh in the nation, which is the highest ranking the program has seen since ... wait for it ... 2009.
b. The Longhorns are alone in first place in the Big 12. The team controls its destiny with regard to making the Big Championship game.
c. The Longhorns rank seventh in the nation in the most recent Playoff Rankings. It means that the Longhorns are absolutely in the playoffs discussion with three weeks to go.
d. The Longhorns currently rank fourth in the current Rivals team rankings for the Class of 2024. Only three schools (Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee) have a higher average star ranking per recruit.
e. Although the Longhorns continue to win, it's hard to say that Texas is playing an elite level of football based on the results post-September, which includes a loss to a sketchy Oklahoma squad and closer-than-you'd-like wins against sub.500 teams like Houston and TCU.
f. You really have to go back almost two months to find a performance that is truly worthy of getting excited about. Steve Sarkisian has spoken for weeks about the excitement of this team's upside if it can ever play a full game at a high level, but that really hasn't been close to materializing.
f. Both sides of the ball have strengths and weaknesses worth celebrating/worrying about.
g. The Longhorns have been a team that comes out of the gates fast, only to slow down to a crawl from a performance standpoint for the last month. The reasons for this brand of football are semi-complicated, but the truth about its existence is not.
h. Injuries have played a role in the inconsistencies of the last month. No injury in college football hurts a team more than one to its starting quarterback. You can't have a conversation about the last month without including the quarterback position.
i. Quinn Ewers doesn't play defense. His absence and the absence of a few others aren't an alibi for what keeps happening to the Texas defense against semi-alive (or better) quarterbacks and stagnant overall play in the middle and late parts of football games since the start of October.
j. The injury to Jonathon Brooks (see below) is a major concern for the rest of the season.
k. Steve Sarkisian and his staff need to be better on game days.
The Texas football team isn't a thing that only has one thing true about it. There's a lot to be really excited/encouraged/hopeful about. There are also a few concerns that are legit enough to not represent nitpicks.
All of this just felt like things that needed to be said.
Let's move along.
No. 2 - Not to bury the lede, but ...
An EF Hutton-level source mentioned to me on Sunday that there's growing optimism that starting quarterback Quinn Ewers will return in 2024.
From what I can gather, the fact that he's not a lock to be among the top five or six quarterbacks in the 2024 Draft if he were to declare has left him in a position where the smart play is to return for another year.
In fact, the scuttlebutt relayed to me was that the folks in the quarterback room already have a decent idea that this is going to happen.
Ultimately, no final decision will be made until after the season, but momentum seems to be pointing in the direction of a return at this very moment.
No. 3 - A life-changing moment ...
Football is a cruel sport, man ...
On Saturday afternoon, Jonathon Brooks had positioned himself into potentially ranking as the No. 1 running back in the 2024 NFL Draft after a dream season had seen him rise into the top 5 nationally in rushing.
By late Saturday night, following a run that gave him his sixth 100-yard rushing performance in his last eight games, Brooks crawled off of the field at Amon Carter Stadium in Ft. Worth with the direction of his entire future changed in the trail.
The feel-good story of the 2024 season feels a lot less feel-good all of a sudden due to the torn ACL that has ended his season and likely lead him back to Austin for the 2024 season.
It's the worst way to get a guy to return for another season.
Literally, just a few days ago, I was talking with Houston Texans TV analyst/FootballTakeover.com Publisher John Harris about Brooks and he believed that UT's star running back had positioned himself to possibly be the first running back in the entire Draft. In fact, he was convinced that a number of teams would have him No. 1 on their Draft boards.
Harris just raved about Brooks. A little more than 24 hours later... everything has changed.
It's just a brutal turn of events and it's almost impossible to not feel absolutely sick for the young man. I'm sure he'll work his butt off and do everything he can to turn this into a long-term positive, but there's no question that this situation will cost him millions over the next 12 months.
The impact on the team is no less devastating. If the Longhorns are going to accomplish the team goals they've chased all season, they'll have to do it without the player who almost certainly has to be regarded as the team's MVP. We're talking about a guy that currently ranks sixth nationally in both rushing and all-purpose yards.
Suddenly, a sometimes underwhelming true freshman (CJ Baxter) and not-always-trusted sophomore (Jaydon Blue) are going to need to carry the running game while its starting quarterback is doing everything he can to never get touched.
It's less than desirable at every turn.
Here's hoping that it doesn't end up translating to the team winning a battle (the TCU game) and losing the war (Big 12 title/playoff hopes).
No. 4 - Best Texas DTs of 21st century ...
Earlier in the week, I was asked whether or not I believed anyone on the current Texas defense other than Jaylan Ford would start for the 2005 national championship defense.
I replied pretty quickly that I thought T'Vondre Sweat would start over both Rod Wright and Frank Okam at defensive tackle.
I say that as someone that has a very healthy amount of respect for Wright, who was a damn good player and a first-team All-American as a senior. Yet, as productive as Wright was as a player for the Longhorns, he was never anyone that I would say was completely unblockable for opposing offensive linemen the way that I feel Sweat has been this season.
There's a reason why Wright ended up being a seventh-round pick in the NFL Draft and played in only 13 career games, while Sweat has emerged as a player that should go no later than day two in the upcoming draft.
It got me to thinking about how I would rank the best defensive tackles since the turn of the millennium and where Sweat would fit on the list.
1. Casey Hampton
He might be one of the top 10 players in the history of the school. All he did was earn All-America honors twice and win Big 12 DPOY honors, while leading the team in tackles twice and racking up 329 tackles, 54 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 56 QB pressures, nine caused fumbles and three fumble recoveries. If you compare another player with Hampton, he better be a freaking monster.
2. Shaun Rogers
Rogers' best season was in 1999 when he had 27 tackles for loss (more than Hampton!!!!). Only a cheap shot early in the 2000 season kept him from having the same type of year he had as a junior.
3. Malcom Brown
It took a while for Brown to hit his stride, but he was an Outland Finalist as a senior after leading the team in sacks (6.5), tackles for loss (15) and forced fumbles (2).
4. Lamarr Houston
Ridiculously underrated player who led the line on a national runner-up. Recorded 68 tackles, 8 sacks, 22 tackles for loss and 28 pressures as a senior.
5. T'Vondre Sweat
This is where I'm slotting him.
6. Marcus Tubbs
Posted 207 tackles, 41 TFLs, 15 sacks and five forced fumbles in his career with the Longhorns.
7. Rod Wright
Earned first-team All-America honors on the greatest team in the history of the school after posting 14 TFL and 4.5 sacks.
8. Roy Miller
A dominating player on the 2008 team that had numbers very similar to Wright's from 2005 (49 tackles, 11 TFL, 5.5 sacks and 28 pressures)
9. Poona Ford
Named Big 12 Conference Defensive Lineman of the Year and first-team All-Big 12 as a senior.
10. Frank Okam
Okam finished his career 160 total tackles, 28 tackles for a loss and 10 sacks, while starting as a sophomore on the 2005 national title team.
No. 5 - BBQ Chicken ...
How good was Xavier Worthy on Saturday night? Good enough that if TCU star cornerback Josh Newton ever sees Worthy again, it'll be too soon.
To be fair, Adonai Mitchell gave him a little business as well.
According to PFF, Newton finished with a grade of 34.2 in coverage (75.8 on the season), giving up nine receptions (out of 13 targets) for 131 yards and a touchdown.
The funny thing about the performance is that Worthy makes everything look so easy at times that I'm not sure many thought his 10-reception/137-yard game was that big of a deal. Yet, all he did was carve up one of the best in the country.
No. 6 - Sad day in Austin ...
It was too good to think the Aggies would keep Jimbo around for another year in the name of completely killing any and all momentum the program would have for the entire 2025 recruiting cycle.
Oh well, the tomfoolery was fun while it lasted.
Ultimately, it's pretty wild that the Aggies are going to eat the contract, but it's just money and that might just be the one thing the Aggies can win a national title in. The reality is that Fisher was a sunk cost. There was no getting around what they owed him and they could either wallow in sadness or find some rich guys to write a few checks.
Those rich guys won't get a building named after them, but maybe they'll get a trophy that has evaded them as football fans for decades. National champions ... hell ... world champions in buyout spending.
Now we'll wait to see where they go from here. I don't expect them to be meek. If they were desperate enough to write the Jimbo checks, they'll likely be in the same kind of mood to feel like they aren't spending 150-200 million to replace him with a downgrade in quality and cache.
It's a program in the best conference in America with a stacked roster, dreamy natural resources and a motivated fan base that writes checks for coaches and players like they are at Rick's Café in the 40s trying to get on a plane out of Casablanca.
From my standpoint, the bottom line is that they'll likely emerge from this better off than they were a week ago. I mean ... they got rid of Jimbo.
No matter how expensive the cost, it had to be done and it is.
p.s. - Shouldn't I get some credit for this? Maybe we can trade it for 85%?
No. 7 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
(Note: I didn't have the guts to do it, but I considered moving Alabama up to No. 2 this week. Even with a loss, I think they are playing better right now in real time than any team in the country.)
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
5. Florida State
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. Texas
9. Missouri
10. Oregon State
(Heisman Trophy)
1. Michael Penix - QB - Washington
2. Jayden Daniels - QB - LSU
3. Marvin Harrison Jr - WR - Ohio State
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Come on, man. He has the team in first place in the Big 12 and the playoff discussion, while being an elite collector of talent in recruiting. He's good. That doesn't feel subjective at all. Is he missing "it"? I suppose it depends on how you define "it", but let's not get carried away with the hyperbole that is baked into the very root of your question. I say that as someone that has serious questions about his skills as a head coach on game days.
(Sell) I don't even think Sark believes that.
(Buy) You can kind of see it coming a mile away. It's flip-szn.
(Sell) Both Blake Gideon and Terry Joseph have contracts that go through 2025 and worth a combined $2.55 million. I don't think either guy is going anywhere. I don't have a sense that Sarkisian is unhappy with them, even if he wants the secondary to play better.
(Buy) This isn't a team that is getting better as the season has continued. I do think we're seeing some individual players improve, but it isn't really translating to the team getting better. If you take the Alabama game away from this season, there aren't a lot of highlights, even if there are quite a few wins.
(Sell) I'm not quite ready to go that far, but it is possible.
(Sell) All that program really needs is a bad ass quarterback and a quality head coach. It's loaded with talent.
(Buy) At some point, Texas has to start playing well because eventually the truth that Alabama is playing at a much higher level in the last month is going to become highly appreciated.
(Sell) He in no way believes that he is the reason the team has some issues.
(Sell) Why wouldn't you think it's both?
(Sell) "We" did not quake in our boots over the hire of Franchione. I don't really remember that being the consensus opinion at all.
(Sell) I don't know that I would say that quite yet. I still expect Texas to win the Big 12.
(Sell) I don't think Texas has been one of the four best teams in the country all season or for much of the season outside of the win at Alabama.
(Sell) I think Texas would likely have some interest, but I don't know that they'll be the first to call. Stewart's recruitment was such that I think Texas would want some assurances from Stewart about his level of interest before knocking down any doors or making any promises.
(Buy) Ewers' injury impacted everything the Texas offense did all night.
No. 9 – Scattershooting on anything and everything …
... The teams that have real playoff experience (Georgia, Alabama and Michigan) all look very comfortable inside of the pressure that exists inside the playoff bubble, while the newbies (Florida State, Washington and Texas) seemed to feel the pressure of the new demands that they are playing with.
... Alabama and Georgia look like the best two teams in the country. I feel like the nation might have messed around in giving the Dawgs two months to figure things out and now they've got Brock Bowers back in the line-up. Ole Miss is a good football team and the Dawgs treated them like they were chumps.
... I'm not sure how much more Big 10 football I can watch this season.
... Washington and Texas look very similar in that they make winning way harder than it needs to be.
... I'd be ok with Caleb Williams turning pro with a game to go in the regular season after seeing what just happened to Jonathon Brooks.
... Oklahoma State has now lost by a combined 68 points to South Alabama and Central Florida. If the Longhorns get the Cowboys in the Big 12 title game, no one will respect a win.
... The Longhorns really could have done with the Big 12 not vomiting mom's spaghetti all over itself this weekend. Seriously, what the hell?
... Saturday might have been the straw that broke the camel's back for Dave Aranda in Waco.
... There's an alternative universe out there somewhere where James Franklin is the head coach at Texas. Thank everything that is holy that we do not live in that alternative universe.
... Joshua Dobbs is a Disney movie just waiting to happen.
... The Texans have something special in CJ Stroud. Very suddenly, I find myself really enjoying watching the Texans play.
... The Cowboys/Giants game was barely an NFL game.
... Could the Patriots end up getting Caleb Williams?
... How are the Steelers 6-3?
... The Internet stays winning ...
... It's very, very interesting in the Premier League going into the latest International break ...
... The Houston Dynamo are the only Texas MLS team still alive in the MLS playoffs. Take that, Real Salt Lake!
... Anyone heard from Ja Morant lately?
... Congrats to the Texas Rangers. You'll have to forgive me for not giving you any thought last weekend. I'm still very much in my feels over the collapse of my Phillies in the NLCS to what I believed was an inferior team.
... Superhero Fatigue is Real!
No. 10 - The List: 2023 Movies ...
It's almost that time of the year when the real bangers of the calendar year start coming out.
Napoleon hits the screens on 11/22. Poor Things is released on 12/8. The Iron Claw on 12/22. At some point, there will be Maestro as well.
Here's a look at my current rankings based on the movies I've seen so far this year.
Best Picture
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Past Lives
5. Rye Lane
6. Barbie
7. MI: Dead Reckoning (Part I)
8. Air
9. Are You There God? It's me, Margaret.
10. John Wick: Chapter 4
Best Actor
1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Matt Damon (Air)
4. Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
5. Jay Baruchel (BlackBerry)
Best Actress
1. Margot Robbie (Barbie)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
4. Halle Bailey (The Little Mermaid)
5. Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Robert Downey Kr. (Oppenheimer)
4. John Magaro (Past Lives)
5. Glenn Howerton (Blackberry)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
2. America Ferrera (Barbie)
3. Cara Jade Myers (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Rachel McAdams (Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret)
5. Viola Davis (Air)
Best Director
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
4. Celine Strong (Past Lives)
5. Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
He was here in September
"Ball-Hard welcomed the 2nd pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, Ja Morant --- we hosted his workouts for 5 days. Some were able to watch and participate in his workouts... be on the lookout for his return, as well as other high profile players coming to Austin in the near future. We appreciate Ja and the entire Morant family / team for allowing Ball-Hard to be the vehicle to assist in his return."
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