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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (How many transfers is too many?)

I have seen Springsteen 16 times, I think, including once at MSG and once on Broadway. I proposed to my wife to a Springsteen song.

I support your Adam Raised A Cain inclusion. That song beats more ass than a frat house paddle. And I can’t really rule out any songs in your top 10 definitively, but room must be made for the criminally underrated Tunnel of Love.

Let's hear the proposal story!
 
I remember Sark in one of his first pressers talking about Texas losing 3 games by 13 points combined the previous year and either directly or indirectly saying that we had the talent needed to win. A 5 - 7 season later and we're turning over 42%+ of our roster year-over-year (almost for sure an all time record). Obviously he changed his mind somewhere along the way.

I don't want to hear any excuses from Sark this year about the team being young or not having played together enough or anything along those lines if/when we start losing a bunch of games. This roster situation is of his making.
It'll still get chalked up as young if he underperforms. He'll point to the turnover as evidence another build year was needed.
 
If I had to guess, I think you're going to see a lot of schools moving forward going at about a 50-50 split, which means something like a 13/12 split in a year when you take 25.

Ketch - a team here or there could theoretically pull of this model, but it just wouldn't work mathematically in any kind of volume. On average about 20 - 25 new freshmen on a per team basis have to join the college football ranks each year to keep 85 kids per team on scholarship.

If team X only wants to deal with 12 freshmen in a year, then team Y needs to take 32 - 35 to even out the model.

I guess Power 5 schools could poach like crazy from the G5 and leave them holding the bag to bring in 32 - 35 freshmen a year, but I'm guessing that would not be tolerated for long.
The transfers will wash out or graduate as well. Won't just be the freshmen helping the turnover.
 
If your NIL money commitments are $10 million a year, you can't have nothing but transfers that want $500,000. Most 4* will want much less. Manning will want half of whatever we have. Everything else needs to be spread out.
Most transfers aren't getting close to $500K at this point.

Manning is a separate animal. He won't even need the standard UT channels.
 
Let's debate. This will probably create some.

10. Born in the USA
9. Racing In The Street
8. Thunder Road
7. Backstreets
6. Darkness at The Edge of Town
5. Prove It All Night
4. The River
3. Adam Raised a Cain
2. Jungleland
1. Born To Run


==================================================================


I love Bruce, but haven't purchased much since the mid 90's and he's put out quite a bit since then. I hear his more recent (less old, really) stuff quite a bit on E street radio, and while I like a lot of it I will say I agree with you that my top ten would almost certainly include nothing past Lucky Town.

My favorite song is Thunder Road. Born to Run is one of the very rare albums where I think every song on it is great.

I don't want to take the time to rank a top ten, but mine would include Badlands, Glory Days, and maybe Brilliant Disguise.
 
Let's debate. This will probably create some.

10. Born in the USA
9. Racing In The Street
8. Thunder Road
7. Backstreets
6. Darkness at The Edge of Town
5. Prove It All Night
4. The River
3. Adam Raised a Cain
2. Jungleland
1. Born To Run


==================================================================


I love Bruce, but haven't purchased much since the mid 90's and he's put out quite a bit since then. I hear his more recent (less old, really) stuff quite a bit on E street radio, and while I like a lot of it I will say I agree with you that my top ten would almost certainly include nothing past Lucky Town.

My favorite song is Thunder Road. Born to Run is one of the very rare albums where I think every song on it is great.

I don't want to take the time to rank a top ten, but mine would include Badlands, Glory Days, and maybe Brilliant Disguise.
good post!
 
I don't know what the numbers are... But I didn't convey my point. There is some amount of money for NIL that is committed. 4*s will require much less of that amount than proven portal players.

I believe you are mistaken about the UT channels. Manning will be signing a lot of contracts with a lot of companies to get to his number.
Manning won't sign deals with a lot of companies.

He'll sign a few and all will be big.
 
Let's hear the proposal story!
I was in Sydney in October and bought her some black opal earrings. She knew I had done so, because it would have been hard to return them, so I checked with her first.

Came home, showed them to her, and then put them away because they were a Christmas gift. She was a bit peeved.

It’s now just before Christmas, and we are getting ready to go out to my folks’ place to celebrate the Yuletide. I have a sudden thought, I say, that the black opal earrings would look great with her outfit, and should we allow ourselves to open one gift each before we head to my parents’ house?

I had switched the engagement ring with the black opal earrings. Brought the gift out, put the Springsteen song (Happy) on, and as she opened the gift and paused for her brain to process the diamond ring where she expected opal earrings, I got down on one knee…. That was more than 21 years ago.

Here are the song lyrics. I almost went with If I Should Fall Behind, which may be the greatest ‘realistic’ love song ever written, but I was feeling this one:


Some need gold and some need diamond rings
Or a drug to take away the pain that living brings
A promise of a better world to come
When whatever here is done
I don't need that sky of blue babe
All I know's since I found you, I'm
Happy when I'm in your arms
Happy, darling, come the dark
Happy when I taste your kiss
I'm happy in a love like this

There's a house upon a distant hill
Where you can hear the laughter of children ring
Guardian angels, they watch from above
Watching over the love that they bring
But at night I feel the darkness near
And I awake, I find you here
I'm happy with you in my arms
Happy with you in my heart
Happy when I taste your kiss
I'm happy in a love like this

In a world of doubt and fear
I wake at night and reach to find you near
Lost in a dream, you caught me as I fell, now
I want more than just a dream to tell

Born in this world, darling, with few days
And trouble never far behind
Man and woman circle each other in a cage
A cage that's been handed down the line
Lost and running 'neath a million dead stars
Tonight let's shed our skins and slip these bars
Happy in each other's arms
Happy, baby, come the dark
Happy in each other's kiss
I'm happy in a love like this

Happy
Happy
 
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Let's debate. This will probably create some.

10. Born in the USA
9. Racing In The Street
8. Thunder Road
7. Backstreets
6. Darkness at The Edge of Town
5. Prove It All Night
4. The River
3. Adam Raised a Cain
2. Jungleland
1. Born To Run


==================================================================


I love Bruce, but haven't purchased much since the mid 90's and he's put out quite a bit since then. I hear his more recent (less old, really) stuff quite a bit on E street radio, and while I like a lot of it I will say I agree with you that my top ten would almost certainly include nothing past Lucky Town.

My favorite song is Thunder Road. Born to Run is one of the very rare albums where I think every song on it is great.

I don't want to take the time to rank a top ten, but mine would include Badlands, Glory Days, and maybe Brilliant Disguise.
There are quite a few really great songs past Lucky Town, but his batting average ain’t quite like his prime.

Listen to Hello Sunshine, The Last Carnival (about the death of one of his band members), Long Walk Home, Moonlight Motel, and most of The Rising, which IMO is his best album overall after Tunnel of Love was released.
 
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Makes sense. But...

Everyone wants Manning as part of their marketing. If a booster commits to $1 million, he might be OK with Texas using what is needed for other recruits but he might insist that he get at least one contract with Manning (no matter how small). It Texas says no, perhaps the entire million sits on the sideline and isn't available now. We might have a feel for how many contracts Manning will go for... Who knows.
we already know. It's not going to be a circus.
 
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There are quite a few really great songs past Lucky Town, but his batting average ain’t quite like his prime.

Listen to Hello Sunshine, The Last Carnival (about the death of one of his band members), Long Walk Home, Moonlight Motel, and most of The Rising, which IMO is his best album overall after Tunnel of Love was released.
I've heard the Rising...not the album, but the song.

I am a regular listener to the Wild & the Innocent show on E Street radio on Friday afternoons while I'm driving home.
 
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Hmm... Certainly not. The amount he needs will be determined. His agent will be given the contracts Manning needs to sign to equal that total. Neat and tidy.
His family will dictate matters, not his representation or anyone else.
 
(Sell) The same rule opened the door for the program to purge itself of enough bodies that it was able to get under the 85-man limit, while also adding the type of talent that could allow for the program to double its win total from last year. I suppose one person's chaos (yours) is another person's (Sarkisian) blessing.

So what does that put your win total at now for 2022 if it could allow your win total to double? I know I know you said "could" but curious how much it would change.

If we land Addison, how many more wins do you add to your predictions for the year?
Honestly the purge and adding Addison might make 1 win difference. It is too dependent on QB and OL play to determine. Remember, Addison will have very little time to come in and learn new terminology and playbook. Yes the route tree is virtually the same but replacing the instant recall for his current playbook with a new playbook (terminology and nuances) takes time to master.
I think tightening up the defense could have as much impact on the W-L total as the QB play this year. That is another reason why the purge and Addison might not yield additional wins. While we know we have some excellent (and potentially excellent) skill players, We simply do not know how the total package will execute.
 
ee0e3a40b744e2eebc3b4d949eaa9055x.jpg

It's 7:31 p.m. on Mother's Day evening and I don't have the slightest clue about what should be the lede of this week's column.

The clock is ticking.

Therefore, I'm going to take the shotgun approach to the column. I'm just going to randomly discuss a few of the things in my head as possible topics for the column.

Maybe I'll return to one of these in the coming weeks and explore the conversation a little more than tonight's rushed affair will allow, but in the name of pleasing all the moms in The Woodlands on Sunday I was responsible for, you get what you get this week.

The future of UT recruiting classes...

I had this as a topic of discussion about six months ago and I'm eager to return to it.

There seems to be a better than decent chance that the 25-man recruiting rule is about to go away for at least a couple of years if the NCAA Division I Council approves legislation at the end of the month, as some are hoping/expecting.

Should that occur, the only number that will mean anything going forward is the 85-man scholarship number. Every year, you can take as many prospects as you like as long as you're under the 85-man limit. With the Longhorns averaging double-digit departures every year in recruiting since... pretty much forever... the Longhorns should be in a position to take 25+ per year on an annual basis.

It probably means that you'll see more attrition like the movement leading up to May 1st, as a number of players that were still in the infancy stage of their development/careers were escorted to the portal by the staff.

So, the question that I get asked more than any other every year regarding how many recruits the Longhorns will be able to sign in any given year can just go away. The answer is as many as the staff wants to. If they want 25, they can almost certainly make way for 25. If they want 30... same. 35? It kind of depends on the year. You get the sense that Steve Sarkisian would have taken 40 if he could.

Inside of these large classes that should be expected moving forward pending the legislation, Sarkisian and his coaching staff will need to determine the future breakdown of each class in terms of the percentage of scholarships allocated to high school prospects and those reserved for transfers.

Full transparency - I'm all out of recruiting non-elite level high school prospects. I'm tired of playing the pretend game where we look at a national Top 250 prospect and make that guy really important. As the data from last week's NFL Draft displayed in pretty powerful and easy-to-understand ways, it's a total crapshoot beyond the Top 10-15 players in the state each year. The historical value of the No.25 player in the state is basically the same as the No.150 prospect in the state. With at least four out of five prospects failing to develop into plus-college players every single year, there's just too much guesswork involved.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns have improved the scope of the 2022 season with the immediate help that the Portal has provided. In a perfect world, we know that this team could use help at edge rusher, at least a couple of linebackers, another safety, and a special teamer or two. Hell, that doesn't even include any offensive linemen or the Jordan Addison dream.

I'm just painting the picture that this year's group of incoming players could have used at least a dozen transfers from the Portal and I don't think anyone would have blinked, especially if all of the guys coming in were proven commodities at the collegiate level (Isaiah Neyor and Jahleel Billingsley) or elite-level recruits looking for a better home (Quinn Ewers, Agiye Hall, and Ryan Watts).

Now, I know what you're thinking... "Ketch, what happens if you only sign five national Top 100 players. Are you just going to take 20 transfers?"

maybe-robert-downey-jr.gif


I'll admit that I don't have the perfect answer. You probably can't pass up on recruiting high school kids in the state of Texas.

Yet, there's no way to get away from the fact that you're hoping to hit a needle in a haystack in doing so. If we eliminate the confirmation bias and feelings, the data tell us that the overwhelming majority of high school prospects that Texas signed in the 2022 recruiting class will fail at levels that are 4X or 5X higher than those that will succeed.

Volunteering yourself into constant 80- to 90-percent failures situations seems like the kind of thing that we would never consistently go for, yet it's previously been the only pathway for college coaches. Not only do we go for them, but we romanticize them!

If I had to guess, I think you're going to see a lot of schools moving forward going at about a 50-50 split, which means something like a 13/12 split in a year when you take 25.

All I know is that the schools that can figure out the proper math in all of this will have a major advantage over those that don't adjust.

No. 2 - The importance of a future General Manager hire ...

Forgive me for continuing to beat this drum, but the sooner the Longhorns hire someone with real NFL front-office senior management experience, the better.

The person in this position needs to be able to do the following...

a. Manage the scouting department, which needs to spend as much time scouting college players as it does high school talent.

There's an alternative universe out there where Tulsa offensive lineman Tyler Smith isn't turning pro three years into his development and getting drafted in the first round. In this alternative universe, he comes back to college for a fourth season and in that universe, the Longhorns need to be able to identify him as a player that can immediately help them, whether they are in the Portal or not.

b. Manage relationships with agents/lawyers and the agent/lawyer underworld.

When NIL started last summer, few players had formal representation. Almost a year later, they all have lawyers, agents, and others that help as part of their NIL creative teams. Moving forward, hiring someone with experience in this field will be critical for countless reasons.

c. Managing the 85-man roster.

No offense to Sarkisian at all, but he wasn't hired for his roster management abilities. He was hired to be a head coach and create a bad-ass offense. Anyone that can upgrade the Texas football program in all of the important areas is something worth adding.

d. Scout/vet potential coaching hires.

Again, no offense to Sarkisian, who has built a very good staff, but if you can bring someone in that can make you stronger in important areas, having someone that is constantly keeping a "top 5" list of every coaching position in the program, so that when they are needed, you've got that Intel ready to go... that's a big win.

How high should a school aim when hiring a GM?

Well, how good do you want to be?

No. 3 - A look at the Scholarship Board ...

With all of the activity in the last few weeks, I figured an updated peek at things might be helpful.

View attachment 2653

No. 4 - A few Jordan Addison thoughts ...

In case I haven't yet made this blindly obvious... I'm all for this move.

Great teams are built around game-changing players and Texas just doesn't have enough of them right now. Period.

If the ghost of Walter Payton is in the Portal, I don't care if your running back room is loaded, you take him if you can.

In my mind, a Texas team that adds Addison to a wide receiver unit that is already arguably the best in the Big 12 because of the inarguable most talented team in the conference at the position.

At this point, the answers to the other positions you want to find aren't available in the Portal. Addison is. He'd show up and be the third-best player on the team at worst. Hell, he might show up and be the best player in the program.

Don't make it rocket science.

No. 5 - About Earl Thomas ...

In my estimation, Earl Thomas is probably in the top 5 of the best Longhorns football players of the modern era.

He should be finishing up an NFL career that would eventually see him wearing a gold jacket in Canton.

That's now what is happening. Instead, Thomas has a felony warrant out for his arrest, which completely destroyed his pro career to the point that he's going to have a hard time getting into the Hall of Fame without purchasing a ticket. From the outside looking in, things appear to be in shambles.

The details on this pending warrant are ugly.

"On April 18, police say Thomas texted the woman that he obtained two handguns earlier that day. Later, he texted, "Waiting on hand in foot is why I'll kick ur ass."

The next day, police say, Thomas texted, "I hope u in the car with him and the kids and yall drive off the road." That same day, police say he texted, "Ima let my momma and my cousins poison they (their children) ass."


It feels like a lot of help is needed. First, we need to make sure that his family has all the help they need and feel safe., especially the kids involved. Once that part of the equation is secure, I hope there's a way to help Thomas.

None of this is any of our business, but it doesn't feel like turning a blind eye because it's 1,000-percent uncomfortable doesn't feel like the right answer, either. I find myself really concerned for everyone.

No. 6 - All about Ivan ...

At this point in the season, I'm starting to only check the Texas baseball boxscores to see how Ivan Melendez is doing.

This weekend he smashed, finishing a three-game series with West Virginia by going 5 for 11 with a 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, and 3 walks.

It reminds me of when I used to check the Rice box scores in the 90s to see what Lance Berkman did from game to game.



No. 7 – BUY or SELL …

BUY-SELL.gif




(Buy) Of course! Shout out to all the moms out there on Orangebloods. Thanks for putting up with us.



(Sell) Ewers starts and plays almost the entire game.



(Sell) It's certainly possible, but I'm going to need to see it before giving that kind of benefit of the doubt. It just hasn't been earned.



1) (Buy) McCoy had a 161 quarterback efficiency number in 2006 and that feels doable. Definitely 25% doable.

2) (Buy) I'm going out on a limb and saying that Ovie Oghoufo gets to five this year.

3) (Buy) Worthy + Addison + Neyor + Whittington = super salty.



(Buy) Makes total sense for them. Just sick back and take advantage of UT's departures. It's a pathway for an improved roster for them.



(Buy) Give me the Kool-Aid if Addison comes.



(Buy) That feels incredibly doable, even if I can't tell you who it will be (not including Ryan Watts).



(Sell) The same rule opened the door for the program to purge itself of enough bodies that it was able to get under the 85-man limit, while also adding the type of talent that could allow for the program to double its win total from last year. I suppose one person's chaos (yours) is another person's (Sarkisian) blessing.



(Buy) Yeah, I think so. Until 2023.



(Sell) He is the is a consummate team player. He also is chasing as much money as he can get, while he can get it. The two things are not mutually exclusive.



(Sell) I'm iffy on the answer, but you asked, so I'll give you an answer.



(Sell) It's been a number of years since I've been on the road and year after year, my rankings consistently outperform all of the services. There's so much more data and tools available these days than there once were. Also, unintentional confirmation bias' becomes very problematic when you make an effort to travel to see a kid. For instance, I saw Robert Griffin play in his senior year in the playoffs and he had a bad half. I convinced myself that nothing else mattered more than what I told myself I had seen in person and it created a blind spot in my evaluation of him. We're in a business where only a very few evaluations actually hit at high rates. Everyone has their own way of doing things, but I haven't found that it's truly hampering me.



(Sell) I think they'll find a good player or two, but it's hard to forecast something larger than that.

No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...



... Baker Mayfield has already seen his upside as a player. I'm not sure it gets better than what we've seen of him in Cleveland.

View attachment 2654

... Feels like we're headed for a Warriors/Bucks Finals.

... If it's at all possible, I still feel like Giannis is underrated.

... Suddenly, the Sixers/Heat and Mavs/Suns series' are the best of three affairs. I'm not sure that I would pick against the Heat or the Suns, but I like the chances of the Sixers and Mavericks winning on the road. We'll see.

... I'm trying to stay with the MLB season, but it's becoming a struggle. My Phillies just aren't any good.

... Sooooo... that whole light heavyweight deal for Canelo Alvarez.... not so bueno. Dmitry Bivol is not to be trifled with.

... For those that watched UFC274, just how bad was the Rose Namajunas fight?

... In a battle between Liverpool and Man City for the Premier League title, the Reds blinked first. It's a hell of a thing when you can basically run the table from the first week of January on and a draw in May will do a team in. Unreal standards.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Boss Songs ...

View attachment 2655

Let's debate. This will probably create some.

10. Born in the USA
9. Racing In The Street
8. Thunder Road
7. Backstreets
6. Darkness at The Edge of Town
5. Prove It All Night
4. The River
3. Adam Raised a Cain
2. Jungleland
1. Born To Run

No. 10 - And Finally ...

Just wanted to say it one more time. Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

Ranking 'Born in the USA' #10 and leaving off 'Glory Days' and 'I'm on Fire' is either for discussion engagement purposes or you are deaf. @Ketchum please re-rank these. thank you.
 
Honestly the purge and adding Addison might make 1 win difference. It is too dependent on QB and OL play to determine. Remember, Addison will have very little time to come in and learn new terminology and playbook. Yes the route tree is virtually the same but replacing the instant recall for his current playbook with a new playbook (terminology and nuances) takes time to master.
I think tightening up the defense could have as much impact on the W-L total as the QB play this year. That is another reason why the purge and Addison might not yield additional wins. While we know we have some excellent (and potentially excellent) skill players, We simply do not know how the total package will execute.


Texas needed to... ahem... "influence" players at need posi
 
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Ranking 'Born in the USA' #10 and leaving off 'Glory Days' and 'I'm on Fire' is either for discussion engagement purposes or you are deaf. @Ketchum please re-rank these. thank you.


A panel on Rolling Stone Magazine came up with a Boss Top 100.

The panel included:

The panel: Win Butler (Arcade Fire), Andy Greene (Associate editor, Rolling Stone), Dr. Lauren Onkey (The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum), Jackson Browne (singer-songwriter, Rock and Roll Hall of Famer), Mikal Gilmore (Contributing editor, Rolling Stone), Christopher Phillips (Editor and publisher, Backstreets magazine), Peter Ames Carlin (Journalist, Springsteen biographer), Brian Hiatt, (Senior writer, Rolling Stone), Rob Sheffield (Contributing editor, Rolling Stone), Bethany Cosentino (Founding member, Best Coast), Alan Light (Journalist and author, The Holy or the Broken), Steven Van Zandt (Actor, guitarist, E Street Band member), Bill Flanagan (Executive vice president, MTV Networks), Edward Norton (Actor-director, two-time Oscar nominee), Warren Zanes (Founding member, the Del Fuegos), David Fricke (Senior writer, Rolling Stone), Tom Morello (Solo artist, Rage Against the Machine guitarist)

No.66 - Glory Days
No.21 - I'm on fire
No.9 - Born in the USA
 

A panel on Rolling Stone Magazine came up with a Boss Top 100.

The panel included:

The panel: Win Butler (Arcade Fire), Andy Greene (Associate editor, Rolling Stone), Dr. Lauren Onkey (The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum), Jackson Browne (singer-songwriter, Rock and Roll Hall of Famer), Mikal Gilmore (Contributing editor, Rolling Stone), Christopher Phillips (Editor and publisher, Backstreets magazine), Peter Ames Carlin (Journalist, Springsteen biographer), Brian Hiatt, (Senior writer, Rolling Stone), Rob Sheffield (Contributing editor, Rolling Stone), Bethany Cosentino (Founding member, Best Coast), Alan Light (Journalist and author, The Holy or the Broken), Steven Van Zandt (Actor, guitarist, E Street Band member), Bill Flanagan (Executive vice president, MTV Networks), Edward Norton (Actor-director, two-time Oscar nominee), Warren Zanes (Founding member, the Del Fuegos), David Fricke (Senior writer, Rolling Stone), Tom Morello (Solo artist, Rage Against the Machine guitarist)

No.66 - Glory Days
No.21 - I'm on fire
No.9 - Born in the USA

They are dumb :).
 
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@Ketchum you have Hookfin counted on the scholarship board still. Any news on him? Chip is saying he’s done and on a medical scholarship now.
 
Texas needed to... ahem... "influence" players at need posi
While there are no rules, why not throw some money at difference makers? Sounds reasonable. After all, we are joining the SEC. When in Rome… (with the line not to cross at losing your soul).
 
ee0e3a40b744e2eebc3b4d949eaa9055x.jpg

It's 7:31 p.m. on Mother's Day evening and I don't have the slightest clue about what should be the lede of this week's column.

The clock is ticking.

Therefore, I'm going to take the shotgun approach to the column. I'm just going to randomly discuss a few of the things in my head as possible topics for the column.

Maybe I'll return to one of these in the coming weeks and explore the conversation a little more than tonight's rushed affair will allow, but in the name of pleasing all the moms in The Woodlands on Sunday I was responsible for, you get what you get this week.

The future of UT recruiting classes...

I had this as a topic of discussion about six months ago and I'm eager to return to it.

There seems to be a better than decent chance that the 25-man recruiting rule is about to go away for at least a couple of years if the NCAA Division I Council approves legislation at the end of the month, as some are hoping/expecting.

Should that occur, the only number that will mean anything going forward is the 85-man scholarship number. Every year, you can take as many prospects as you like as long as you're under the 85-man limit. With the Longhorns averaging double-digit departures every year in recruiting since... pretty much forever... the Longhorns should be in a position to take 25+ per year on an annual basis.

It probably means that you'll see more attrition like the movement leading up to May 1st, as a number of players that were still in the infancy stage of their development/careers were escorted to the portal by the staff.

So, the question that I get asked more than any other every year regarding how many recruits the Longhorns will be able to sign in any given year can just go away. The answer is as many as the staff wants to. If they want 25, they can almost certainly make way for 25. If they want 30... same. 35? It kind of depends on the year. You get the sense that Steve Sarkisian would have taken 40 if he could.

Inside of these large classes that should be expected moving forward pending the legislation, Sarkisian and his coaching staff will need to determine the future breakdown of each class in terms of the percentage of scholarships allocated to high school prospects and those reserved for transfers.

Full transparency - I'm all out of recruiting non-elite level high school prospects. I'm tired of playing the pretend game where we look at a national Top 250 prospect and make that guy really important. As the data from last week's NFL Draft displayed in pretty powerful and easy-to-understand ways, it's a total crapshoot beyond the Top 10-15 players in the state each year. The historical value of the No.25 player in the state is basically the same as the No.150 prospect in the state. With at least four out of five prospects failing to develop into plus-college players every single year, there's just too much guesswork involved.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns have improved the scope of the 2022 season with the immediate help that the Portal has provided. In a perfect world, we know that this team could use help at edge rusher, at least a couple of linebackers, another safety, and a special teamer or two. Hell, that doesn't even include any offensive linemen or the Jordan Addison dream.

I'm just painting the picture that this year's group of incoming players could have used at least a dozen transfers from the Portal and I don't think anyone would have blinked, especially if all of the guys coming in were proven commodities at the collegiate level (Isaiah Neyor and Jahleel Billingsley) or elite-level recruits looking for a better home (Quinn Ewers, Agiye Hall, and Ryan Watts).

Now, I know what you're thinking... "Ketch, what happens if you only sign five national Top 100 players. Are you just going to take 20 transfers?"

maybe-robert-downey-jr.gif


I'll admit that I don't have the perfect answer. You probably can't pass up on recruiting high school kids in the state of Texas.

Yet, there's no way to get away from the fact that you're hoping to hit a needle in a haystack in doing so. If we eliminate the confirmation bias and feelings, the data tell us that the overwhelming majority of high school prospects that Texas signed in the 2022 recruiting class will fail at levels that are 4X or 5X higher than those that will succeed.

Volunteering yourself into constant 80- to 90-percent failures situations seems like the kind of thing that we would never consistently go for, yet it's previously been the only pathway for college coaches. Not only do we go for them, but we romanticize them!

If I had to guess, I think you're going to see a lot of schools moving forward going at about a 50-50 split, which means something like a 13/12 split in a year when you take 25.

All I know is that the schools that can figure out the proper math in all of this will have a major advantage over those that don't adjust.

No. 2 - The importance of a future General Manager hire ...

Forgive me for continuing to beat this drum, but the sooner the Longhorns hire someone with real NFL front-office senior management experience, the better.

The person in this position needs to be able to do the following...

a. Manage the scouting department, which needs to spend as much time scouting college players as it does high school talent.

There's an alternative universe out there where Tulsa offensive lineman Tyler Smith isn't turning pro three years into his development and getting drafted in the first round. In this alternative universe, he comes back to college for a fourth season and in that universe, the Longhorns need to be able to identify him as a player that can immediately help them, whether they are in the Portal or not.

b. Manage relationships with agents/lawyers and the agent/lawyer underworld.

When NIL started last summer, few players had formal representation. Almost a year later, they all have lawyers, agents, and others that help as part of their NIL creative teams. Moving forward, hiring someone with experience in this field will be critical for countless reasons.

c. Managing the 85-man roster.

No offense to Sarkisian at all, but he wasn't hired for his roster management abilities. He was hired to be a head coach and create a bad-ass offense. Anyone that can upgrade the Texas football program in all of the important areas is something worth adding.

d. Scout/vet potential coaching hires.

Again, no offense to Sarkisian, who has built a very good staff, but if you can bring someone in that can make you stronger in important areas, having someone that is constantly keeping a "top 5" list of every coaching position in the program, so that when they are needed, you've got that Intel ready to go... that's a big win.

How high should a school aim when hiring a GM?

Well, how good do you want to be?

No. 3 - A look at the Scholarship Board ...

With all of the activity in the last few weeks, I figured an updated peek at things might be helpful.

View attachment 2653

No. 4 - A few Jordan Addison thoughts ...

In case I haven't yet made this blindly obvious... I'm all for this move.

Great teams are built around game-changing players and Texas just doesn't have enough of them right now. Period.

If the ghost of Walter Payton is in the Portal, I don't care if your running back room is loaded, you take him if you can.

In my mind, a Texas team that adds Addison to a wide receiver unit that is already arguably the best in the Big 12 because of the inarguable most talented team in the conference at the position.

At this point, the answers to the other positions you want to find aren't available in the Portal. Addison is. He'd show up and be the third-best player on the team at worst. Hell, he might show up and be the best player in the program.

Don't make it rocket science.

No. 5 - About Earl Thomas ...

In my estimation, Earl Thomas is probably in the top 5 of the best Longhorns football players of the modern era.

He should be finishing up an NFL career that would eventually see him wearing a gold jacket in Canton.

That's now what is happening. Instead, Thomas has a felony warrant out for his arrest, which completely destroyed his pro career to the point that he's going to have a hard time getting into the Hall of Fame without purchasing a ticket. From the outside looking in, things appear to be in shambles.

The details on this pending warrant are ugly.

"On April 18, police say Thomas texted the woman that he obtained two handguns earlier that day. Later, he texted, "Waiting on hand in foot is why I'll kick ur ass."

The next day, police say, Thomas texted, "I hope u in the car with him and the kids and yall drive off the road." That same day, police say he texted, "Ima let my momma and my cousins poison they (their children) ass."


It feels like a lot of help is needed. First, we need to make sure that his family has all the help they need and feel safe., especially the kids involved. Once that part of the equation is secure, I hope there's a way to help Thomas.

None of this is any of our business, but it doesn't feel like turning a blind eye because it's 1,000-percent uncomfortable doesn't feel like the right answer, either. I find myself really concerned for everyone.

No. 6 - All about Ivan ...

At this point in the season, I'm starting to only check the Texas baseball boxscores to see how Ivan Melendez is doing.

This weekend he smashed, finishing a three-game series with West Virginia by going 5 for 11 with a 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, and 3 walks.

It reminds me of when I used to check the Rice box scores in the 90s to see what Lance Berkman did from game to game.



No. 7 – BUY or SELL …

BUY-SELL.gif




(Buy) Of course! Shout out to all the moms out there on Orangebloods. Thanks for putting up with us.



(Sell) Ewers starts and plays almost the entire game.



(Sell) It's certainly possible, but I'm going to need to see it before giving that kind of benefit of the doubt. It just hasn't been earned.



1) (Buy) McCoy had a 161 quarterback efficiency number in 2006 and that feels doable. Definitely 25% doable.

2) (Buy) I'm going out on a limb and saying that Ovie Oghoufo gets to five this year.

3) (Buy) Worthy + Addison + Neyor + Whittington = super salty.



(Buy) Makes total sense for them. Just sick back and take advantage of UT's departures. It's a pathway for an improved roster for them.



(Buy) Give me the Kool-Aid if Addison comes.



(Buy) That feels incredibly doable, even if I can't tell you who it will be (not including Ryan Watts).



(Sell) The same rule opened the door for the program to purge itself of enough bodies that it was able to get under the 85-man limit, while also adding the type of talent that could allow for the program to double its win total from last year. I suppose one person's chaos (yours) is another person's (Sarkisian) blessing.



(Buy) Yeah, I think so. Until 2023.



(Sell) He is the is a consummate team player. He also is chasing as much money as he can get, while he can get it. The two things are not mutually exclusive.



(Sell) I'm iffy on the answer, but you asked, so I'll give you an answer.



(Sell) It's been a number of years since I've been on the road and year after year, my rankings consistently outperform all of the services. There's so much more data and tools available these days than there once were. Also, unintentional confirmation bias' becomes very problematic when you make an effort to travel to see a kid. For instance, I saw Robert Griffin play in his senior year in the playoffs and he had a bad half. I convinced myself that nothing else mattered more than what I told myself I had seen in person and it created a blind spot in my evaluation of him. We're in a business where only a very few evaluations actually hit at high rates. Everyone has their own way of doing things, but I haven't found that it's truly hampering me.



(Sell) I think they'll find a good player or two, but it's hard to forecast something larger than that.

No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...



... Baker Mayfield has already seen his upside as a player. I'm not sure it gets better than what we've seen of him in Cleveland.

View attachment 2654

... Feels like we're headed for a Warriors/Bucks Finals.

... If it's at all possible, I still feel like Giannis is underrated.

... Suddenly, the Sixers/Heat and Mavs/Suns series' are the best of three affairs. I'm not sure that I would pick against the Heat or the Suns, but I like the chances of the Sixers and Mavericks winning on the road. We'll see.

... I'm trying to stay with the MLB season, but it's becoming a struggle. My Phillies just aren't any good.

... Sooooo... that whole light heavyweight deal for Canelo Alvarez.... not so bueno. Dmitry Bivol is not to be trifled with.

... For those that watched UFC274, just how bad was the Rose Namajunas fight?

... In a battle between Liverpool and Man City for the Premier League title, the Reds blinked first. It's a hell of a thing when you can basically run the table from the first week of January on and a draw in May will do a team in. Unreal standards.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Boss Songs ...

View attachment 2655

Let's debate. This will probably create some.

10. Born in the USA
9. Racing In The Street
8. Thunder Road
7. Backstreets
6. Darkness at The Edge of Town
5. Prove It All Night
4. The River
3. Adam Raised a Cain
2. Jungleland
1. Born To Run

No. 10 - And Finally ...

Just wanted to say it one more time. Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there.
A last-minute B/S question:
Eliminating the 25 recruit classes will make it easier to compete with the Alabama’s of the world because teams like UT can cull their 3* and 4* players that don’t work out. AU has higher recruited players already and won’t benefit as much.
 
If the NCAA eliminates the 25 man classes, the shoe is about to be on the other foot.
 
Manning won't sign deals with a lot of companies.

He'll sign a few and all will be big.
I may have missed it but did Texas get some good news on Manning recently? Things still trending really well?
 
Rosalita is in the top 10 and Rosalita live is in the top 10 live songs of all time, easily in the Boss’s top 3.
 
Hmmmm... I think you are mistaken.

I don't believe that Mannings have a long history of negotiating contracts. I also suspect no one in the family wants the headache.

good grief. Are you trying to **** with me?

They can dictate the process without actually doing the lawyer work.
 
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While there are no rules, why not throw some money at difference makers? Sounds reasonable. After all, we are joining the SEC. When in Rome… (with the line not to cross at losing your soul).
It happened with Addison. That means it could/should have happened with others.

Don't get me wrong, it's a nitpick by a person who nitpicks for sport. But, it was always there as a tool to use.
 
A last-minute B/S question:
Eliminating the 25 recruit classes will make it easier to compete with the Alabama’s of the world because teams like UT can cull their 3* and 4* players that don’t work out. AU has higher recruited players already and won’t benefit as much.
maybe buy

That feels very wonky, which makes me appreciate it. Talk about fine margins!
 
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