Nothing really changed this weekend.
In the aftermath of UT's third win of the season, I’m not sure that Charlie’s Strong’s job status received a stay of execution as much as Saturday night represented a bit of an intermission to the grand spectacle that is the 2016 season.
While it’s certainly not an ideal situation, there’s really no way to ignore the elephant in the room that every game Texas plays this season will be viewed through the lense of the ongoing debate about whether Strong will get a fourth season in Austin.
Pulling out a three-score win over Iowa State after trailing 6-3 at halftime doesn’t change anything about the way we’re going to view each game for the rest of the season.
If Charlie Strong was the Lou Brown character in the movie Major League and the Longhorns were the Indians, he’d have a cardboard cutout of Texas president Greg Fenves cut into eight pieces and after every win, Strong would take a piece of Fenves’ suit off until his boss was left with nothing on but pasties.
Or would Fenves just have the pasties and the goal would be to add pieces of clothing to him?
You know what? Just forget that I went with that movie metaphor.
What matters is the target that everyone is watching, which is eight wins. Charlie needs eight and he picked up No. 3 on Saturday night. In theory, he can afford one more mulligan this season in the form of a loss and then the wiggle room in the form of losses will be gone.
Look, it’s not fair to the players or anyone else, but that’s where things stand and it’s naive to believe that it can be avoided. It’s just too important.
What’s most fascinating about all of this is the position in which president Fenves finds himself.
Of all the things he signed up to deal with, serving as the chief decision-maker for a football program has to be an inconvenience to him. As a personal fan of Charlie Strong, my guess is he’d prefer to show up at the games, root for the Longhorns and lose himself for a few hours from the rest of his very busy life. All things being equal, he’d rather not have every Saturday turn into hours of him having to listen to everyone’s opinion on what decision he needs to make.
Fenves can fly to Tulsa to help close a deal on an offensive coordinator, but he can’t do Strong’s job for him. Try as he might, there’s no escaping the position in which he finds himself, which is ultimately the judge and jury on Strong once this season ends.
Can you imagine what was going through his head at halftime with the team down to the Cyclones in what was a rather dreadful first 30 minutes? If you think it’s just the message boards that can be a dangerous place on game nights, donor suites can be their own special kind of fun.
As relieved as Strong might have been after the game ended, I would imagined Fenves was right there with him, as a win will probably allow him to focus a little more on … well … the job he thought he signed up for.
Yet, the Iowa State game serves as only a one week reprieve for both men. Eventually, there will be a meeting and a judgment day. Try as they might, neither man can avoid it.
No. 2– The extension cloud ...
One of the things Fenves will have to consider when making his decision on Strong is the impact of not giving him an extension after the season if he in fact decides to keep Strong around for another season.
Every high-level source I’ve spoken with this season has told me that an extension beyond the final two years that Strong has left on his current deal is simply not on the table.
While it is not unusual for coaches to go into the final two years of a contract without an extension, because of the fact that there has been so much discussion about Strong’s job security at this point of his tenure, the focus from the very first game of next season will be on whether the team is playing well enough to extend Strong.
Basically, we’re going to see a bit of a repeat of the “Will he stay or will he go” game-by-game narrative, even if he finds a way to get to eight wins and secure his place for another year. The impact of this reality will certainly be felt in recruiting, as every school that recruits against the Longhorns will point to the lack of commitment to an extension as proof that Strong is on very slippery footing and that if you sign with Strong out of high school, you won’t be playing for him for very long in college.
With all due respect to recruiting, the last thing anyone wants to do on the Texas admin side is give Strong more guaranteed money after sweating through the last two seasons when it has had a $15 million and $10 million albatross hanging around the school’s neck.
In the less than ideal situation that currently exists, that’s just one more layer of less than ideal to add to it.
No. 3– Shane Buechele through half of the season ...
It’s amazing that his play hasn’t generated more discussion, but I’m not sure you could ask much more from Shane Buechele than he’s currently giving the Longhorns.
After completing 26 of 38 passes against Iowa State for 296 yards and two touchdowns, we’ve now got a sample size of six games on which to evaluate Buechele and there’s every reason to think he’s going to be the quarterback of the long-term future, which answers the single biggest question facing the program outside of the issues facing Strong.
With six games to go, Buechele ranks 40th in the nation in passing efficiency and is on pace to post a 26/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which isn’t far behind the numbers that all-time legend Colt McCoy posted in the best freshman season by a quarterback in school history.
I don’t know that any of us know his true ceiling as a player, but if this is his floor, the Longhorns should be able to count on outstanding quarterback play for the next three seasons.
No. 4– Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...
… It’s probably time for everyone to start thinking of D’Onta Foreman as a legit first-team all-America and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Foreman ranks second nationally in yards per game and is blowing the rest of the nation away with his seven game streak of 100-yard rushing performances.
… Sterlin Gilbert needs to make sure the team taking a shot down the field to Devin Duvernay happens in the first quarter of every game moving forward. I thought he waited a little too long to dial up this game-breaker’s number.
… Eight different receivers caught passes against the Cyclones and John Burt wasn’t close to being one of them.
… Chris Nelson might be the most underrated player on the entire team. Twice in six games this season he’s led the team in tackles. Seven tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble over the course of 60 minutes from an interior player is pretty damn salty.
… I don’t think John Bonney did anything to lose the starting job he entered Saturday night with. I can’t say I saw that coming.
… It needs to be said going into the week that Kansas State has had brutal quarterback play for most of the season. Whatever you thought of Iowa State’s quarterback play, and I thought it was wretched, the Wildcats quarterback play is worse.
… Looking forward to seeing the Connor Williams/Jordan Ellis match-up on Saturday.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: The continued progression from the young guys up front allows UT d-line to have an 9-10 man rotation and gets Charlie to that 8th win and another year as the UT HC.
(Sell) Beating Iowa State did not change my mind about this team. There’s a better chance that this group goes 6-6 than 8-4 in my mind, but I think Strong finishes with seven.
BUY or SELL: BOLD but the shark (Jeffrey McCulloch) splits snaps 50/50 with Malik's by the end of the season?
(Sell) He’s going to get more reps each week, but it won’t be at a 50-50 split with Malik Jefferson.
BUY or SELL: Seven could do it?
(Sell) This team still has a lot of ugly football left in it and when it’s all said and done, I think a loss in the season-finale will be the final straw.
BUY or SELL: Strong’s coaching the defense was on display and defense will rank as top three best in big twelve by the end of the season?
(Sell) The top four offenses in the Big 12 remain on the schedule, as do three of the top five quarterbacks.
BUY or SELL: D’Onta Foreman leaves for NFL after this year?
(Buy) It’s hard for me to imagine that his stock will go up and there are so many carries a running back has in his life. With the way Foreman runs, he needs to be cashing checks as soon as possible.
BUY or SELL: The toughest remaining game on the schedule is WVU?
(Sell) I think the Baylor game is a very bad matchup for the Longhorns and until we see Texas prove that it can handle TCU, the Horned Frogs should probably be feared as well, even if Kenny Hill is its quarterback.
BUY or SELL: Swoopes has thrown his last pass as a Texas QB?
(Sell) I don’t know if he’ll ever throw it from the 18-Wheeler package, but he’ll likely take another throw or two from the base offense before the season ends.
BUY or SELL: Texas gets any of the big 3 in Texas recruits AKA Walker, Little, and Browning. Surely all of them won't get away?
(Sell) The Longhorns are in a trailing position for all three right now.
BUY or SELL: You personally and Orangebloods as a business makes more money when UT football is bad?
(Sell) The site grows with subscribers when there is excitement in the program. Great recruiting typically pushes the needle. Nothing grows the site more than a coaching change, but enduring the three or four seasons of blah pretty much cancels it out. There’s not a site covering the team that wouldn’t gain from seeing a change at the top.
BUY or SELL: The Aggies repeat the "Manziel Miracle" in Tuscaloosa next Saturday.
(Sell) A&M is having a very good season, but reality will slap that team in the face this weekend.
No. 6 – The Tom Herman section...
The Cougars look like a team that has already peaked and it might only be a matter of time before we stop talking about them as a top 10-15 team.
Clearly, everyone is waiting for the Louisville game, but after losing to Navy and getting pushed to the brink by Tulsa in consecutive weeks, is it a given that the Cougars win the next three to set up that showdown?
Also, is there anything that could happen that would drop Herman’s stock out of the stratosphere? If you’re Texas, USC or LSU, is gobbling up Herman after a 9-3 season an absolute must? What if UH finishes 8-4?
What will it take for his stock to drop to the point he stays put?
No. 7 – College Football randomness ...
… If I had a vote that mattered …
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Washington
5. Clemson
6. Texas A&M
7. Louisville
8. Doesn’t matter
9. Doesn’t matter
10. whatever
… Big 12 Power Poll
1. Oklahoma
2. Baylor
3. West Virginia
4. TCU
5. Oklahoma State
6. Texas
7. Kansas State
8. Texas Tech
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
… My goodness, Alabama beat Tennessee so badly in Knoxville it reminded me one of those games I played in when I was at McCallum and we played Reagan in 1992. After taking a 42-0 lead at the half, Reagan started rotating players all over the place and their backups were better than the starters in a lot of cases.
… Alabama is on a 19-game winning streak, despite having youth all over the field. If I set the over/under on Jalen Hurts national championships at 1.5, are you taking the over or under? I’m kind of leaning over.
… Gutsy win for the Buckeyes in Madison. G-u-t-s-y.
… I expect the clock to strike midnight soon, but it’s funny to watch Nebraska get to 6-0 and have everyone talk about the school’s glory days, as if the Huskers are anywhere close to that.
… Is Kliff Kingsbury’s buyout so large that Tech fans just have to take whatever he serves up, no matter what he serves up and for however long he serves it up? When does he have to start being good?
… Notre Dame is just awful. I’ll be honest, I never thought they’d be this awful when we saw them in Austin.
… It’s pretty ridiculous that Baylor is in the top 10. I don’t know why any top teams ever play anyone of significance.
No. 8 – Dak boy is good!
I don’t even know what to say.
With Dez Bryant and Tony Romo not in the mix, the Dallas Cowboys went to Green Bay and slapped the taste out of every Cheesehead’s mouth.
The final score might have been 30-16, but it wasn’t even that close.
On top of the final score, Dak Prescott actually outplayed Aaron Rodgers. The Aaron Rodgers. In his house.
If I’m sleeping, don’t wake me up.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Scattershooting on week six of the NFL season:
a. Who is picking against New England at this point in the season? The Bengals gave Tom Brady and Co. a game for a couple of quarters, but it felt like the Patriots just played with them in the second half. That team will have Gronk nightmares all week.
b. Yes, I traded Shady McCoy for Todd Gurley two weeks ago.
c. Jeff Fisher’s team is now 3-3, which means that 8-8 is just around the corner.
d. The Panthers are done.
e. Speaking of the Panthers, former Longhorn Donald Hawkins was playing left tackle at one point on Sunday. Just thought I’d point that out to those that forgot or didn’t know he was even in the league.
f. I don’t know what to make of Pittsburgh.
g. If you’re the Ravens, how do you let Odell Beckham beat you late in the fourth quarter like that?
h. The Carson Wentz Hype Train is stuck on the tracks.
i. Richard Sherman got away with one on Sunday afternoon.
j. The AFC West is a free-for-all.
k. The all-time great Aaron Rodgers is gone and we might never see him again.
l. The Texans are as average as average gets. I don't know where this team goes from here.
... Clayton Kershaw's legacy is changing in front of our very eyes. What a player.
… I hated seeing former Phillies world champion Joe Blanton serve up a grand slam in the NLCS, but it was a lot of fun seeing Chicago fans lose their collective minds. Go Cubbies.
… I’m not sure my brain can handle a Cleveland/Chicago World Series.
… The only time I can’t be a Cubs fan is when Aroldis Chapman pitches. I was rooting for him to give up that lead in the 8th inning. The Cubs sold a piece of their soul to bring that guy in.
… My favorite Joel Embiid moment of the weekend
… Man, Michael Carter-Williams’ stock has fallen hard. Traded for Tony Snell? Yikes.
… Bring it on, Man United. I’ve been waiting two weeks for this game on Monday. A win puts Liverpool at the top of the table with Man City and Arsenal.
… Man City misses penalty picks like I make typos.
… It’s been a long season, but after 33 weeks, FC Dallas is a single point away from the Supporters Shield Trophy. Of course, I’m not sure that potentially losing Mauro Diaz to a serious ankle injury is worth the cost. That was a hell of a win on Sunday, given the circumstances.
No. 10 - And finally …
This might have been my favorite moment of the weekend. Welcome back, Craig. Orangebloods everywhere are with you.
